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11 Case Study -9: Improving Reliability and availability

A lot of industries (e.g. chemical) are interested in a reliable power supply, as an unforeseen interruption of the power supply may have severe consequences. First there is the economical damage if there is a shutdown, which leads to loss of production until the process has restarted. But also there can be damage of the installation. Next to the direct damage, long outages may cause pollution and human safety problems. To reduce the risks of an outage, it is possible to have two transformers in redundancy. This means if one transformer fails, the other transformer will carry the full load, and there will be no interruption of the power and/or shutdown of the factory. For this case study, the economical cost when an unforeseen outage occurs is a necessary input figure. The costs of outages are very hard to determine, for this given situation it is presumed that outage of the electricity will cause a shutdown of the factory, whereby each hour outage is equal to Euro 10.000,=. The MTBF (mean time between failures) for a transformer is presumed to be 40 years. The MTTR (mean time to repair) or time to replace a failed transformer is 8 hours. This means that the average outage frequency equals 0,025 per year and the average outage duration equals 12 -6 minutes per year. If there is redundancy the average outage frequency equals 1,14x10 per year, -4 while the average outage duration equals 2,7x10 minutes per year. This means the chance that both parallel transformers having a failure at the same time is very small compared to the outage of one transformer. The choice for the designer to use one transformer (2500 kVA) or two transformers (1600 kVA) can now be quantified. Presuming the load is 1500 kVA; the 2500 kVA transformer loading is 60%, while the loading of the 1600 kVA transformer is 47% when both transformers are in parallel. The total annual losses for both options are given in table 6.9
Table 6-9: electricity losses over a year

2500 kVA Transformer No load kWh/yr. Load kWh/yr. Total kWh/yr. 2x 1600 kVA Transformer No load kWh/yr. Load kWh/yr. Total kWh/yr.

Oil C-C’

Oil D-D’

Dry HD 538

Dry Low loss

69379 91279 Oil C-C’ 29784 54182 83966

58972 77587 Oil D-D’ 25316 46054 71370

56765 94433 Dry HD 538 49056 38702 87758

47083 83262 Dry Low loss 46778 36186 82964

If the economic life time is estimated at 10 years, and the electricity price Euro 70,= per MWh, the following costs are expected in these 10 years (see table 6.10).
Table 6-10: Costs over 10 years.

2500 kVA Transformer Purchase price [Euro] Cost of no load [Euro] Cost of load [Euro] Cost of outage [Euro] Total cost [Euro] 2x 1600 kVA Transformer Purchase price [Euro] Cost of no load [Euro] Cost of load [Euro] Cost of outage [Euro] Total cost [Euro]

Oil C-C’ 24897 15330 48565 20000 108792 Oil C-C’ 27340 20849 37927 <1 86117

Oil D-D’ 29402 13030 41280 20000 103712 Oil D-D’ 35774 17721 32238 <1 85734

Dry HD 538 25527 26368 39736 20000 111631 Dry HD 538 35902 34339 27091 <1 97333

Dry Low loss 27494 25325 32958 20000 105777 Dry Low loss 38146 32745 25330 <1 96222