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CAPITAL MARKET OUTLOOK

H1 2012
OVERVIEW OF GLOBAL MARKETS

Research and Analysis

The first semester of 2012 confirms a slow-down in the world economy. In China, growth is at a three years lowest with 7,8%, compensated with an inflation rate during the first quarter at 8,1%, down from 9,2% the previous year. American growth missed the 2,2% consensus at 1,9% annualized. EU on its side has 0% growth overall, however much contrasted country to country (Germany +0,5%, France 0%, Greece -6%); with inflation at 2,4%, continuing a 19 month period above the European Central Bank (ECB) inflation target of 2,0%. Markets have reacted to these figures, with China gaining 5,46%, US 8,31% when EU gained 2,71%. Significant delay in the European market compared to major U.S. and Asian indices. Using H1 2002 as base 100, the Asian Hang Seng index currently expresses a growth of 70%, the U.S. S&P 500 is up by nearly 20%, while the European index EuroStoxx600 dropped by 15%. Due to this persisting Eurocrisis Europe is suffering with Italy, the 3rd th European economy and Spain, the 4 both still under pressure. Investors’ confidence remained fragile, volatility is at the same level or higher compare to the beginning of 2012. World slowing economic growth and eurocrisis maintain pressure on investors. Moreover EURO endured decline in market rates against major currencies. Short term market rates as indicated by 3 months rates were mostly lower by the end of the semester compared to January. Prices of energy, and metals decreased in H1 2012 whereas grains and crops were in a relative stable trend but skyrocket in June. In January both France as well as European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) were downgrade to AA+. In March Eurozone backed a second Greek bailout of €130 billion. At the end of June, Cyprus became 5th Eurozone state to seek bailout. On July 1st, the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) replaces the EFSF. ECB's LTRO (long term refinancing operations) improved the short term liquidity and the confidence. Its open lines of around €1000 billion in three year loans to 800 lenders, gives a real liquidity boost to the European economy. Eurozone troubles are not over since more European banks still suffers lack of capitalization. ECB’s Quantitative Easing was followed by the Bank of England with £375 billion in February although it suffers a pause for a few months due to the sharp rise in inflation. Subsequent to these measures ECB and Bank of China both cut their interest rates in July. ECB interest rate is down by 0.25% to 0,75% in order to support the current economic period whereas the People’s Bank of China is down by 31 basis point to 6%. American improvement is fragile and suffers due to European macroeconomics problems. In April, Brazil’s central Bank reduced its benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points to 9%, a two years lowest. More and more countries are experiencing changes in its monetary policy. Lower rates have been justified by high inflation and the need to help recover economy in developed countries. Slight improvement of financial investment in H1 2012 is reflected both on the primary and secondary markets by a slowdown in activity of ECM compared to H1 2011. Global M&A deals value continues to falter to its lowest level in the last five years to $1,381,357 million from $1,822,484 million last year, a 24% compression. Number of deals shrunk by 15% from 34149 to 28985. Major M&A deal this semester was a bid from Glencore to Xstrata for an amount of $39,884 million. On the IPO side, Facebook listed since May 2012 raising $104 billion in a down market. Priced IPOs is down by 41% in the world whereas amount raised in capital increase is up by 15%. Growing confidence by investors with volatility index under the critical threshold of 20%.
Slight improvement of financial markets in H1 2012. Both primary and secondary markets grew significantly by 68% of capital increase. This major growth shows the long-term attraction of the market. Recovery of deals is good positive news, erasing two consecutive semesters of decline. Total market of deals represents the same size than in H1 2008. Unlike the previous semester, the U.S. market is the one which has experienced the fastest growth. The Europe weighed down by its economic problems and politics continues to lag behind
300

Total Global IPO andCapital Increase Value vs Global Equity Indexes Evolution (2002- 06.30.2012)
300

250

250

216
200
bn) €

157 120 103 108 110 94 111 179 54 49 54 49 40 31 66 132 84 95 68 89 59 13
H1-04 H2-04 H1-05 H2-05 H1-06 H2-06 H1-07 H2-07 H1-08 H2-08

125 150 190

200

137

Price

150
Value (

130 108

150

127
100

100

132

156 95 138 9
H1-09 H2-09 H1-10

135 75 78 87

50

86 46 51

50

0

0

H1-02

H2-02

H1-03

H2-03

H2-10

H1-11

H2-11

H1-12

Capital Increase

IPO

Hang Seng

S&P500

EuroStoxx600

Source: Based on Bloomberg data updated by EnVent 30.6.2012

© 2012 EnVent – Independent Financial Advisor – All rights reserved

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232 1.279 1.H1 2012 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 North America Western Europe 2007 2008 Asia and Oceania 2009 2010 Rest of the world 2011 H1. North America makes its return last semester as main square of IPOs representing 53.500 2.034 1.424 2.CAPITAL MARKET OUTLOOK H1 2012 The two consecutive semester decrease in the value of capital market deals is stabilized with an increase of nearly 3% of total transactions compared to the last semester.000 70 2.500 90 80 3. The European market remains flat with a 16% market share in H1. The American market is back with around 50% of the global market.076 544 776 980 518 1.001 1.386 1.057 1. the Asian market was cut by 28.06. investor seems to be more confident as evidenced by the sharp fall of volatility indexes.2012 (3rd market).651 1.355 695 601 996 821 642 746 553 363 699 978 941 731 352 241 835 60 90 days) - 6 - 50 40 30 20 Volatilit y (av er age 30 10 0 H1-02 H2-02 H1-03 H2-03 H1-04 H2-04 H1-05 H2-05 H1-06 H2-06 H1-07 H2-07 H1-08 H2-08 H1-09 H2-09 H1-10 H2-10 H1-11 H2-11 H1-12 Capital Increase IPO Hang Seng S&P500 EuroStoxx600 Source: Based on Bloomberg data updated by EnVent 30. Western Europe had its lowest result ever. The geographical distribution of the value of the IPO highlights the continuing loss of Europe’s attractiveness.025 1. It’s a break in this decreasing trend. the market is expanding with a peak in 2007. Composition of Capital Increase in Value by Geographic Area 2002 – H1 2012 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2002 2003 2004 North America 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 H1 2012 Western Europe Asia and Oceania Rest of the world Source: Based on Bloomberg data © 2012 EnVent – Independent Financial Advisor – All rights reserved 2 .000 1. After a fast growth and a peak in 2009. With 5. down by 35% since H2 2010.158 1.500 Number of Oper ation s 1.2012 Since 2002. This poor result for IPOs in 5 semesters underlines the fragility of the economic activity.2012 Source: Based on Bloomberg data Both North American and Western Europe reduced their losses compared to the market and improved their reliability proportionally.4% market share for H1 2012. Research and Analysis Total number of IPOs and Global Capital Increase vs Volatility Indexes (2002 .1% in 2 years nevertheless remaining the second biggest market with 31. as was 10 years before. Geographic Breakdownby IPO size 2002.9%.8%.6. by 20% at the end of June 2012.196 1.000 500 0 2. However.022 1.215 1.369 1.9 % of the world market and taking back a figure comparable to pre-2004.30.632 964 850 1. The geographical distribution depends on the economic conjuncture.623 1.283 2. IPOs are at a 3year lowest number and Capital Increase improved by 17.236 793 1.2012) 3.

Telecommunications.4% vs 17.0 % vs 14.4% 7.1% in H1 2011 4.7%.1% 0. further to 42.6% 25.1% 6.6% in H1 2011 4.4% in H1 2011 2.766 500 2.500 1. IPO market continues to be dominated by the financial sector. caused a compression of the average price of deals. Although telecommunications is the smallest sector.6 % vs 16.5% vs 40.0% 1.2% in H1 7.0% in H1 2011 vs 11.500 3.CAPITAL MARKET OUTLOOK H1 2012 H1 2012 recorded further overall slow-down in both capital increase and the IPO market.7% 1.1% vs 15. The most dynamic sector is technology with an increase in value by 207% between H1 2011 and H1 2012.5% from 40. Financial sector confirmed its leadership also in capital increase both in number of transactions and in value increase.9 vs 30.2% in H1 2011 25.3% 8.3% 8.8% 10.000 642 941 1. The number of deals announced decreased from 2964 to 2274 (-23. IPO Breakdown by Sector H1 2012 (Number of transactions) IPO Breakdown by Sector H1 2012 (Value of Transactions) vs 22.2% 6.023 112 0 H1 2012 H1 2011 H1 2012 Announced 46 H1 2011 Upcoming Capital Increase IPO H1 2012 Priced H1 2011 H1 2012 118 66 H1 2011 Withdraw/Postponed Source: Based on Bloomberg data During H1 2012.1 % 5.7% 2.6% in H1 2011 Financials Basic Materials Technology Health Care Utilities Industrials Consumer Goods Consumer Services Oil & Gas Telecommunications 13.6% 6. the financial sector outperformed thus increasing their performance versus other sectors (relatively).9% of the market. Basic materials remains the top sector in capital increase for fundraising with 25.8%% in H1 2011 Financial s Basic Materials Technolog y Health Care Utilitie s 2011 42.2% 11. it is the only one in absolute to rise in both value and number of transactions.4% in H1 2011 5.3 % 19.5% vs 5.1% as of H1 2011.4 % 6.3% in H1 2011 12.4% vs 9. The reduction of global number of deals and the decrease of fund raised.000 1. I n a negative trend.3% in H1 2011 16.8% 29.1% in H1 2011 Industrials Consumer Goods Consumer Services Oil & Gas Telecommunications 11. consumer services and consumer goods increased sensibly in H1 2012. The most significant change is related to the priced IPOs with a contraction by 31.9 % 14.4% 0.3% vs 19.4 vs 11.3% 2.632 2.0% 1.3 % 7.4% vs 14.285 2.8% vs 17.6% in H1 2011 Financials Basic Materials Technology Health Care Utilities Industrials Consumer Goods Consumer Services Oil & Gas Telecommunications Source: EnVent analysis on Bloomberg data Capital Increase Breakdown by Sector H1 2012 (Number of transactions) Source: EnVent analysis on Bloomberg data Capital Increase Breakdown Capital by Sector H1 2012 (Value of Transactions) 6.500 948 2.3% in H1 2011 3.1% vs 23.000 3.0 % 1. Slowdown in primary and secondary capital market activity Research and Analysis Number of Global IPO and Capital Increase Transactions 2012 vs 2011 4.7% 24.4% vs 11.6% vs 16.2% in H1 2011 11.104 1.6% in H1 2011 8.000 1.7% in H1 % 2011 Industrial s Consumer Goods Consumer Services Oil & Gas Telecommunication s Financials Basic Materials Technology Health Care Utilities Source: EnVent elaboration on Bloomberg data Source: EnVent elaboration on Bloomberg data © 2012 EnVent – Independent Financial Advisor – All rights reserved 3 .1% 16.2%).

a Research and Analysis Bloomberg IPO Index 2002 -2012 (1. Five new companies were listed on stock exchange during those first six months of 2012. bringing it to €258 billion austerity plan since the beginning of the crisis in H1 2011. Three companies went on AIM whereas two on the MTA.5 billion to recapitalize UniCredit. It’s a 17 years high.2002=100) Both U. For the fourth consecutive month.3% of GDP over the 120. unemployment rate decreased in May 2012 to 10. the Japanese index skyrockets (+29%). 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Jan-02 Jan-03 USA Jan-04 Jan-05 Europe Jan-06 Jan-07 Japan Jan-08 Jan-09 China Jan-10 Jan-11 India Jan-12 Source: EnVent elaboration on Bloomberg data FOCUS ON ITALIAN MARKET • Since November 16 2011. © 2012 EnVent – Independent Financial Advisor – All rights reserved 4 .1.6 billion out of which €7. Italian Banks have asked for €133 billion (75+58). • Financial services confirmed itself as the main collector for capital increase. In H1 2012. After doing rollercoaster during the last six months (-17. This situation is related to the worsening of both Italian CDS and Italian BTP spread versus the German Bund.48 % during this first half.3% compared with June last year. marking a new record. In June unemployment resumed its flight to a peak of 10. They used most of this money to buy Italian debt. the Indian index remains flat. Unlike this improvement. IPO. th • Trend does not change and remains mostly negative.1% reported at the end of 2011. the governor of Italian Central Bank declared in July 2012 that Italian GDP will shrink about 2%.2002 = 100) for the first time since 2006. Italy has been cut twice by major international rating agency Moody’s. Italian private debt is low leaving room for future actions.2% (M&A. After a flat semester in H2 2011. Growing difficulties for Italian companies to raise resources on capital markets.1%. unemployment exceeds the symbolic rate of 10%.8 % .7 %) Italian CDS remains flat during the same time.The fall amounts to 34%. Italy expects a 3% primary surplus by the end of the year with an increase in exports. After 14 months of continuous increment.1. • • One year after passing with slim margin EU Stress Test. Italy is in a credit crunch situation thus affecting investments in Italy and also the capacity of the companies to gather resources for investments. This domain raised €7. Moreover.CAPITAL MARKET OUTLOOK H1 2012 The IPOs indices exhibits downward trend in H1 2012. + 27. Cutting its losses. In the first quarter. Largest IPO was Brunello Cucinelli with € 173. Italy has a technocratic government managed by Mario Monti. Italy's debt rose to 123. After a first ”Save Italy” decree in December 2011.S and European indices decreased thus confirming the fragility of the IPO market for these strategic areas. Italian banks rushed on ECB long term refinancing operation LTRO. Venture Capital). Global deals market in Italy follows the economy reducing in volume by 38. Private Equity.2% in April whereas May 2011 result was 8. the government has done it again with an additional cut of €26 billion. Multiplication of banks capital increase shows the vulnerability of the Italian economy.2% & on the other the investment bank houses estimates decline with -2.2%. • The Italian BTP has become the symbol of the systemic decline and seems under pressure since H2 2010. At the end of June. AIM and MAC markets merged to have only one market for Small and Mid-Cap.2% compared to last year H1. so the BTP rate decreased as wanted by the ECB.9 Million capital raising. Ignazio Visco. This incredible performance let the nation exceed the European index (1. There is no common consensus on the GDP growth as on one hand Government expects a growth of 1. The difference is more evident in value comparison with a loss of 48. The Chinese IPO index has achieved a substantial and continuous decline throughout the beginning in August 2011. This GDP decline growth downwards is mainly due to domestic demand weakness. After the two editions.8%. Everything is not so dark: even if primary surplus is negative by 3% for this first quarter. the spread was 462 base points with a decrease of 15. Consumer price index rose to 3.1% from 10.

9% of the BTP. Germany.64% whereas in the same time. Among the European major market indices (UK.2002 = base 100) 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 FTSEMIB Jan-05 Jan-06 CAC 40 Jan-07 Jan-08 DAX Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 FTSE100 Source: EnVent elaboration on Bloomberg data After long-term underperformance FTSE Italia Star marks a return since financial crisis by producing the best performance of MTA.6% respectively. France. Most of this improvement is due to the ECB action with the long term refinancing action LTRO.6% and – 6. German performance is long term duration with a rise of 29.Jun 2012) Italian BTP 700% 600% 500% 400% 300% 200% 100% 0% Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Serie1 Italian BTP 10 Y Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Serie2 10 Y German Bund Source: EnVent elaboration on Bloomberg data 180 Europe: Performance of Major Indexes (1.1. the Italian FTSEMIB is confirmed as the worst for this first semester.CAPITAL MARKET OUTLOOK H1 2012 Over the H1 2012. German Bund. Uncertainty on macroeconomic recovery and on political scenario for the 2013 Italian election still affecting negatively the spread between BTP vs.64% whereas both Mid and Small Caps indices had negative performance of -12. 800% Research and Analysis .02 % since January 2009.8%). Italy). The Italian index decreased by 7. With a 9 years scale.2003 = base 100) 250 200 150 100 50 0 Jan-03 Jan-04 FTSEMIB Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 FTSE Italia Star Jan-12 FTSE Italia Mid Cap FTSE Italia Small Cap Source: EnVent elaboration on Bloomberg data © 2012 EnVent – Independent Financial Advisor – All rights reserved 5 .8% reduction to 468 basis points from 528 points at the beginning of January 2012. The vitality of the German economy is underlined by the strong performance of Dax which ends this semester up by 5. The smallest spread difference is 2 weeks after the second injection of liquidity.1.26%) and the French index mainly stayed flat (0.4% 300 Borsa italiana: Main Indexes performances (1. It’s a very strong performance whereas all other indices of Milan felt during H1 2012.3%.Vs German Bund 10Y (Jan 2002.61%. However recovery of the BTP is subject to both European and national political schedule. The share price rose 4. The spread difference shrunk with a 19. the English one had a slow descent (-2. the market attended a general release on the interest rate market with a fall of 15. Main index FTSEMIB decreased by 7. FTSE Italia Star is the only one to make gains of +21.

3 0.7 3.9 270.3 78.0 100 10.2 1.3 1. with a 61% loss regarding to H1 2011 but with a light recovery compared to H2 2011.06.4 0.60.2 6.5 1.2%.06. Nevertheless.2 H1-03 H2-03 0.3 5.3 600. Nevertheless this result is strongly affected by the capital increase of UniCredit which crushed the rest of the market.30.081.5 168.0 101.0 580.2 159.5 0. However.0 IPO Capital Increase H1-02 H2-02 H1-03 H2-03 H1-04 H2-04 H1-05 H2-05 H1-06 H2-06 H1-07 H2-07 H1-08 H2-08 H1-09 H2-09 H1-10 H2-10 H1-11 H2-11 H1-12 Source: EnVent elaboration on Bloomberg data © 2012 EnVent – Independent Financial Advisor – All rights reserved 6 Average Volatility (30.0 221.0 888.0 41.5 248.1 H1-02 H2-02 2.0 EuroStoxx600 H2-10 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 795.0 4.2 H2-07 H1-08 H2-08 40 2.1 0.0 330. Capital Market was compressed by 92.0 0.0% improving while capital increase experiences a decrease of 46.2 1. Financial services missed the availability of resources like in H1 2011.7567.2012) 30 70 60 Price .8 33.5 0.4 44.8 140.3 1000.0 7.0 1.0 160 140 10.9 8.0 200.0 H1-09 H2-09 H1-10 20 1.0 71.01.0 120 Total Amounts (Mld €) 8.30. reinforcing concern related to the Italian market.0 180. Research and Analysis Italian Total Value of IPO and Capital Increase vs Evolution of European Indexes (2002.2011 whereas Eurostoxx600 finished on a -9.0 108.8 0.30.7 131.06. FTSEMIB ends over 30% volatility.2 34.0 835.CAPITAL MARKET OUTLOOK H1 2012 Italian market confirmed its negative trend with a -30.2012) 12.0 8.66%.8 1.7 400.8 1.6 800.0 120.0 0.0 6.0 378. the total number of transactions are still far away from precrisis levels. Capital Increase experiences rise for three semesters in a row reaching the highest level since 2002. especially with regard to the IPO.2 H1-04 H2-04 H1-05 H2-05 1.7 1.4 0.9 8.2012 The average IPO introduction decreased to 42 million.3 239.2 0 FTSE100 Source: EnVent elaboration on Bloomberg data 25 Number of Deals 50 20 10 40 15 10 8 9 4 30 IPO market recovers with a +25. the progress of the Italian index is stronger than its European counterparts in H1 2012.0 723.6 0. Still No signs of Recovery.0 286.0 2.8 1.0 515. Italian Total number of IPOs and Capital Increase vs European Indexes Volatility (2002.3% between H1 2011 and H1 2012.4 0. Listed industrial companies continued to have very limited recourse to market financing. 10 10 6 5 11 10 3 2 4 H2-02 8 15 14 4 5 2 3 2 H1-09 11 13 10 10 10 7 20 5 10 2 2 H1-03 3 2 H2-03 3 2 H1-04 6 H2-04 5 H1-05 H2-05 H1-06 H2-06 H1-07 H2-07 3 H2-09 4 H1-10 4 H2-10 4 H1-11 5 2 H2-11 H1-12 0 H1-02 0 H1-08 Capital Increase IPO FTSEMIB H2-08 EuroStoxx600 FTSE100 Source: EnVent elaboration on Bloomberg data.15% performance since 01.2 531.0 2.0 1088.4 0.2 H1-06 H2-06 H1-07 80 60 4. Italian Average Deal Size H1 2002 .9 0.90 days) H1 2012 attended a decrease in volatility of major European market.9 0.3 0.5 H1-11 H2-11 H1-12 Capital Increase IPO FTSEMIB 0.8 0.0 137.4 0. Without Unicredit capital increase the average deal size would have been flat to the level of H2 2011.9 40.1 4.0 187. There is still a Gap between Italian market and other Europeans.H1 2012 (€ m) 1200.7 7.8 116.4 3.0 0.6 1. However.

0 Ducati Purchased by Audi 2.1 Source: EnVent elaboration based on Bloomberg data 7621.7%. It represents 98. The number of deals announced decreased from 2964 to 2274 (-23. IPO H1 2012 Market Values (Euro mln) Bank.5 Source: EnVent elaboration based on Bloomberg data 0. The reduction of global number of deals and the decrease of fund raised caused a compression of the average price of deals. 17.7 Non financial firms Meridiana Fly Gruppo CHL Fintel Energia Group Mondo TV MovieMax Media Group Overall Aggregate Source: EnVent elaboration based on Bloomberg data Softec Overall 118.7 % in H 1 2011 28.7 Reason 2.2%.2% vs 94.0 Frendy Energy Arc Real Estate divided on the different markets: Overall 7.4 IPO Breakdown by Sector H1 2012 (Value of transactions) Brunello Cucinelli listing pushed consumer Goods to 83% of the total IPO market per Value.CAPITAL MARKET OUTLOOK H1 2012 Italian market followed the worldwide trend with an overall slow-down in both capital increase and IPO market. The most significant change is related to the priced IPOs with a contraction by 31. Strong decrease by 62% in number of capital increase announced in comparison to last year.6% vs 7 .3 Del Clima Cucinelli. The introduction was evenly Investimenti e Sviluppo 5. capital increase H1 2012 Values (Euro mln) Italy. Same contraction for capital increase priced.2 % in H1 2011 1. Most of the capital increase goes to the financial sector. financial sector and real estate bank Brunello Cucinelli The most significant IPO was Brunello Unicredit 7. Utilities & Energy Financial & RE Utilities & Energy Consumer Goods ICT Source: EnVent elaboration on Bloomberg data Source: EnVent elaboration on Bloomberg data Capital Increase Breakdown by Sector H (Number of transactions) 28.3 MTA/AIM/MAC.2% in H 1 2011 42. MTA MTA AIM MAC MAC 173.2%).7% in H1 2011 98.2% Utilities & Energy Other Financial & RE Financial & RE Utilities & Energy Other Source: EnVent elaboration on Bloomberg data Source: EnVent elaboration on Bloomberg data © 2012 EnVent – Independent Financial Advisor – All rights reserved 7 .3 191. Money raised by Non-financial companies. In terms of value Financial and RE sector remained the only sector able to attract financial resources. Volatility of the market was the key factor for the two IPO cancellation.9 Avio Due to volatile market 135.6 8.0 IPO Cancelled 11. the capital increase sector for number of transactions.486. confirming the trend of last semester. is in big decrease by -75.a. Number of IPO announced remains stable but IPO prices have been negatively affected by the economic contest with 50% reduction. insurance.9% vs 7.9 n. In terms of numbers of transactions Utilities and Energy takes the lead with 40% of the total market but well far from consumer goods market in value.6% 0.7 9.3% of the overall increase confirming the weaknesses of Italian banks. Research and Analysis 60 Number of IPOs and Capital Increase in Italy H1 2012 vs H1 2011 50 11 40 30 8 20 11 37 4 21 10 14 0 1 H1 2012 2 H1 2011 Announced 0 0 3 H1 2012 Imminent 13 0 3 4 H1 2011 5 H1 2012 Priced 3 4 1 H1 6 2011 7 H1 2012 5 8 H1 2011 Withdrawn/ Postponed Capital Increase IPO Source: EnVent analyses on Bloomberg data Italy. Most of new listed companies are small caps. IPO Breakdown by Sector H1 2012 (Number of transactions) 20% 20% vs 50% in H1 2011 83% 20% vs 25% in H1 2011 vs 63.0 % in H1 2011 8% 4% 5% 40% Financial & RE Consumer Goods ICT On the other hand.481.6% 1 2012 Capital Increase Breakdown by Sector H1 2012 (Value of transactions) vs 46 . is dominated by both Utilities & Energy and Financial companies.

-58. three firms finished the first semester with a positive performance . whose performance on an average beat the index.0% FDE. 6. Overall good performance for new listed companies.30% YARC. 45.00% -100% -80% DLC: Delclima -60% -40% -20% 0% 0% 20% BC: Brunello Cunicelli YSFT: Softec 40% 60% 80% FDE: Frendy Energy YARC: Arc Real Estate 100% Source: EnVent elaboration on Bloomberg data Source: EnVent elaboration on Bloomberg data © 2012 EnVent – Independent Financial Advisor – All rights reserved 8 .CAPITAL MARKET OUTLOOK H1 2012 Out of five new Italian companies listed on stock exchange.4% YSFT.4% DLC. 29. Worst Performer 2012: New company listed on the stock market Research and Analysis Best Performers 2012: New companies listed on the stock market BC. while only one stock is decreasing and the fifth remains flat. 0.

Around 30% of the capital are supposed to be shared (Reuters. 2012). The two advisors will handle IPO which should take place the next autumn through Made in Italy 1 (Il Mondo. It has been finally validated by th the board of director.8 million from newly issued shares and € 0. Corrado Passera.1 billion euro capital increase. 2012). company operating in the positioning and indexing on search engines. Moleskine mandated Goldman Sachs. Ambromobiliare is planning the IPO of Uni Land (engaged in the real estate sector) in order to reduce the owner Alberto Mazzini’s stake (Il Mondo. May 14 . July 2012) © 2012 EnVent – Independent Financial Advisor – All rights reserved 9 . By 2014. The annual meeting of Austrada Torino-Milano granted the power to the board of directors to increase the share capital by way of a divisible increase. listed on AIM Italia in July raising € 3. June 2012). listed on AIM Italia in July raising € 5. announced the possible quotation of some assets of Ferrovie dello Stato (Finanza & Mercati. Capital Increase will finally take place during H2 2012. plans to be listed at Borsa Italiana. A first raise of € 200 million is expected (Reuters. The process should begin in September when the necessary documents will be presented. Bialetti. (Reuters. Business Combination 1 is about to be listed. 2012). The board of Bee Team convened a meeting on 17/18 July in order to propose a capital increase paid.5 million. through this quotation Finaval hopes to raise at least € 100 million (Il Mondo.17% of shareholding. for an aggregate amount of €500 million by the end of 2012. firms and government): plans to be listed on the Milan Stock Exchange between the end of 2012 and early 2013. Unipol and Fondiaria are going to merg after their twin 1. to be realize by the end of 2013 (Reuters. a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) listed (Il Mondo. The IPO could be earlier through Made in Italy 1. a clothing company. company that acquires and improves the assets of bankrupt companies or agreed. June 2012). It’s a €50 million deal. February 24. approved a capital raising for a maximum of €15 million (premium inclusive) to be carried out by the end of 2012 (Reuters.7 from outstanding shares (sources: Borsa Italiana website).CAPITAL MARKET OUTLOOK H1 2012 IPO and Capital Increase News – Italy Research and Analysis • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • Compagnia dell Ruota. notified by Bank of AmericaMerrill Lynch as their advisor (Il Mondo. Dmail is expected to raise €15 million through the issue of its new ordinary shares which is to be offered to shareholders (Reuters. 28 june 2012). Primi sui Motori. Avio announced to relaunch IPO process. Infrastructure and Transport. Gabetti will conduct a capital raising of € 32 million (Reuters. February 24. Within March 2013. May 2. is planning an IPO on AIM between July-September 2012 (Milano Finanza. Mezzacorona: Italian cooperative.5 million from the IPO for the 14. May 17. (Il Messagio. presenting prospectus to Borsa taliana and Consob. Moncler: Italian group operating in the clothing sector is expected to be listed by 2013. 2012). February 24.1 million from the pre IPO and IPO for the 45. 2012). € 2. Minister of Economic Development. for a maximum of € 12. Peuterey Group. 2012).76% of shareholding(source: Borsa Italiana web site). 2012). company producing coffee machines. April 27. The Bassilichi Group (company offering outsourcing services to banks. Sopa: italian discount supermarket chain operating in the centre and south of Italy. Mediobanca and UBS to guide its IPO planned by the end of this year. AS Roma. May 9. June 2012). producing wine. June 2012). June 2012). it is expected to land at the Milan Stock Exchange by mid-July (Reuters. 2012). Intermonte and Centrobanca were named financial advisors by SeSa (italian group operating in the ICT sector). May 18. May 16. 2012). appointed Integrae as financial advisor and Studio Legale Pedersoli as legal advisor to list on MAC the controlled Nosio Spa (corporate press. 2012). April 6.

p. This Outlook does not purport to provide any estimates or projections on possible future trend of the sector or of the global or local economy but it represents only a static desk analysis conducted on historical market data and projections made by sector associations.it Managing Partner Paolo Verna. Therefore EnVent will make any representation or warranty. Borsa Italia. IPO/ Capital increase completed and already accepted on trading (in number or value). Also known as primary market. Any recipients shall have to conduct independent investigations and analysis. This Outlook is not intended to form the basis of any investment decision. reliability or reasonableness of any of the information contained herein including data. 216/74 and following amendments pursuant to Legislative Decree no. as to the accuracy.A. Indicator that rises or decrease in price sharply in a time period. pverna@envent. EnVent S. This Outlook has been prepared on available public information (associations websites. Research and Analysis Stock with the worst/best performance in a given time. completeness.envent. Use of different sources for the investigation of sector trends or of different criteria for the execution of the analysis could conduct to results significantly different from those included in the present Outlook. Operation to improve the capital of companies listed on regulated markets. IPO/ Capital increase canceled or delayed (in number or value).it Associate Via Barberini. mbottini@envent. expressed or implied. DISCLAIMER This Outlook has been prepared by EnVent Research and Analysis team with the sole purpose to provide clients and professionals with selected information on the relevant trends of the sector. comments. nor under Article 18 clause 1 of Italian Law no. Usual references are 30-60-90 days.it Partner Marco Bottini. Zephyr published by BvD. nor a solicitation to purchase any securities or assets. Balance between revenues and expenses less the cost of debt. projections. 95 – 00187 Roma / Milano Tel: +39 06 896841 Fax: +39 06 89684155 www. – Contacts Franco Gaudenti.CAPITAL MARKET OUTLOOK H1 2012 GLOSSARY IPO Capital Increase Volatility Announced Upcoming Priced Withdrawn/ Postponed Worst/Best performers Primary deficit Initial Public Offer: Trading on regulated markets of a share of common stock of a company. not verified nor by EnVent or other independent third party.eu © 2012 EnVent – Independent Financial Advisor – All rights reserved 10 . Banca d’ Italia. companies websites. The Outlook does not constitute an offer or invitation in any jurisdiction and it is not an offer to sell any securities or assets. market players or other public authorities or databases. fgaudenti@envent. or elaborations herein reported. nor a public offering pursuant to Article 1336 of the Italian Civil Code. IPO/ Capital increase announced on which has been given an indication of the timing (in number or value). Also known as secondary market. IPO/ Capital increase announced to the market (number or value). Bloomberg. 58/98. press release).