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Y. Shopov and D. Stoykova Citation: AIP Conf. Proc. 1356, 192 (2011); doi: 10.1063/1.3598105 View online: http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.3598105 View Table of Contents: http://proceedings.aip.org/dbt/dbt.jsp?KEY=APCPCS&Volume=1356&Issue=1 Published by the American Institute of Physics.
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Cycles of the Solar Wind Flux at the Front of the Earths Magnetosphere
Y. Shopov and D. Stoykova
University Center for Space Research and Technologies, St. Clement of Ohrid University at Sofia, 5 James Bourchier Blvd., BG-1164 Sofia, Bulgaria
Abstract. We studied various long solar wind proxy records in order to reveal prolonged solar wind cycles. Inverted rate of atmospheric 14C production as derived from the standard radiocarbon calibration curve represents good proxy record of the past variations of the solar wind flux at the upper atmosphere because it modulates the galactic cosmic rays flux, which produces the radiocarbon there. We made periodogramme time series analysis of the inverted rate of atmospheric 14 C production record in order to obtain the solar wind cycles. In such a way, we found cycles of 11 500, 1670, 1420, 1280, 924, 835, 787, 750, 663, 610, and 545 years in this solar wind proxy record. Records of the intensity of the geomagnetic dipole are also proxy records of variations of the solar wind flux, because it modulates the geomagnetic field. We made periodogramme time series analysis of the one long record of the intensity of the geomagnetic dipole in order to obtain the solar wind cycles. In this way we found cycles of 11 500, 4400, 3950, 2770, 2500, 2090, 1960, 1670, 1460, 1280, 1195, 1145, 1034, 935, and 835 yrs in this solar wind proxy record. We have confirmed the solar origin of all this cycles by their detection in an independent solar luminosity proxy record. The 11 500-yr cycle was found previously to be the most intensive cycle in the 14C calibration record and was interpreted to be of geomagnetic origin. Our studies suggest that this is a solar cycle modulating the geomagnetic field. We determined the solar origin of strong cycles with duration of 11 500, 4400, 3950, 2770, 2500, 2300, 2090, 1960, 1670, 1460, 1280, 1195, 1145, 1034, 935, 835, 814, 775, 750, 660, 610, 550, and 538 years and of many weak cycles with duration from one to five centuries. This was achieved by their detection in proxy records of solar luminosity, atmospheric 14C production and the intensity of the geomagnetic dipole. The main variations in the last two records are known to be produced by the solar wind while the first record is absolutely independent on the geomagnetic field, so non of these cycles can be of terrestrial origin. The main variations in the 14C and geomagnetic field records are produced by the solar wind. Known decadal and even centennial solar cycles have negligible intensity (100 times less intensive) relative to these cycles. These millennial solar luminosity cycles can produce climatic variations with intensity comparable to that of the orbital variations known to produce the glacial periods on Earth. We discovered a sub-annual cycle of 27 days in very high-resolution soil surface temperature proxy records, attributed to solar rotation, which causes the periodic appearance of active zones on the visible solar surface, which are the major emitters of solar wind. Solar wind modulates cosmic ray flux at the Earth, while cosmic rays influence the atmospheric transparency, thus producing a multiplication of solar variations in insolation. Hence small variations of the solar activity can produce a measurable influence on insolation. Keywords: solar wind, solar irradiance, solar activity, solar cycle, solar rotation, proxy records; atmospheric 14C production PACS: 96.60.Q, 96.60.Tf, *96.60.tj, 96.60.Tf, *96.60.th, 96.60.qe, 96.60.Ub, 96.60.-j, 96.60.Ly, 92.60.Vb, 94.20.wq, 96.60.Vg
3rd School and Workshop on Space Plasma Physics AIP Conf. Proc. 1356, 192-203 (2011); doi: 10.1063/1.3598105 2011 American Institute of Physics 978-0-7354-0914-9/$30.00
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1. INTRODUCTION
Solar system is a giant dynamo machine: rotation of magnets (planets) in the external variable magnetic field of the Sun carried by the solar wind (SW) produces powerful induced electric currents (like in electric power generators). Such currents are observed to flow around the Earth. They generate a magnetic field which superposes Earths magnetic field and produces its variations [1]. Variations of solar irradiance have been small during the period of direct satellite observations [2], but can be much bigger during geological periods of time [3, 4, 5]. Crowley [6] estimated that over the last 1000 years as much as 4164% of pre-anthropogenic decadal-scale temperature variations are due to changes in solar irradiance and volcanism. Here we consider impact of variations of cosmic rays, solar wind and solar irradiance on Earths climate. A link between cosmic rays intensity and cloud cover has been discovered by Ohring and Clapp [7] and proven by comprehensive measurements [8]. Cosmic rays can modulate atmospheric transparency [8].
3. SOLAR IRRADIANCE
In order to study cycles of the solar irradiance we studied two types of data:
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Flow speed 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 0 1000 2000 3000 days 4000 5000 6000
Ion Density
60
Ion Density [N/cm^3]
FIGURE 1. Daily averaged solar wind plasma Flow Speed [km s1] and Ion Density [N/cm3] near the magnetosphere9 from January 1995 to July 2010 [10].
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30 25 20 15 10 5 0 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 days
20
15
10
0 0 10 20 days 30 40
FIGURE 2. Intensity of cycles of daily averaged solar wind plasma flow speed near the magnetosphere (OMNI-2 data [9]) from January 1995 to July 2010 calculated by Real Space periodogramme analysis.
1 0.9 I of Ion density cycles 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0 1000 2000 days 3000 4000
0.6 I of Ion density cycles 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0 10 20 days 30 40
FIGURE 3. Intensity of cycles of daily averaged solar wind ion density near the magnetosphere [9] from January 1995 to July 2010 calculated by Real Space periodogramme analysis.
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TABLE 1. Variations of the solar constant in W m2 (VSC) and in % of the solar constant (PSC) compared with cycles (Fig. 8) of variations of the intensity of the geomagnetic field (GEOM), cycles (Fig. 6) of the inverted rate of atmospheric -14 production [17] calculated by Shopov et al [5] in % of the solar constant with the same computer code using Real Space periodogramme analysis and the duration of cycles of the inverted rate of atmospheric -14 production [18] in Italic calculated by us with the same computer code (Fig. 7). Cycles present not only in the solar constant but also in geomagnetic field or -14 must be of solar origin. They are outlined in bold. Last column of the table contains also cycles of the inverted atmospheric 14-C production solar wind proxy in years calculated in different works with different types of time series analysis (see Table 2)
Cycle [Yrs] 11500 6160 4400 3950 3400 2770 2500 2300 2090 1958 1770 1670 1460 1280 1195 1145 1034 935 835 814 775 750 670 660 610 570 550 538 480 455 448 416 405 342 317 291 287 254 186 162.5 156.5 155.9 118.2
Error [Yrs] +1900/1150 +/410 +/209 +/148 +/126 +/80 +/67 +/60 +/50 +/42 +/35 +/30 +/23 +/18 +/15 +/14 +/16 +/9.4 +/7.5 +/7.2 +/6.5 +/6.0 +/5.5 +/4.8 +/3.9 +/3.5 +/3.3 +/3.1 +/2.5 +/2.3 +/2.1 +/1.9 +/1.8 +/1.27 +/1.08 +/0.904 +/0.698 +/0.378 +/0.286 +/0.282 +/0.267 +/0.265 +/0.152
PSC [%] 7.33 3.02 1.78 1.83 1.76 0.92 1.19 0.91 0.53 0.82 0.62 0.66 0.73 0.35 0.33 0.33 0.31 0.22 0.26 0.19 0.17 0.19 0.15 0.18 0.13 0.15 0.13 0.15 0.10 0.11 0.07 0.10 0.07 0.06 0.07 0.06 0.06 0.08 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.05
VSC [W m2] 100.6 41.5 24.4 25.1 24.1 12.6 16.3 12.5 7.28 11.26 8.5 9.1 10 4.8 4.5 4.5 4.26 3.02 3.6 2.6 2.3 2.6 2.06 2.47 1.78 2.06 1.78 2.06 1.37 1.57 0.91 1.37 0.96 0.81 0.91 0.83 0.76 1.06 0.79 0.83 0.76 0.79 0.68
GEOM [%] 7.33 6.2 4.32 3.25 4.7 2.26 2.82 1.01 2.42 0.71 1.22 1.92 1.62 1.2 0.6
C 14 [Yrs]
20792400 20792400 0.73 0.4 1420 +/ 1000 1420 +/ 1000 1420 +/ 1000, 1183 924 +/ 40, 909965 0.56 0.56 0.48 545 +/ 15 545 +/ 15 482 +/ 21, 493512 433 +/ 9, 413440 378 +/13, 385399 348 +/ 6, 353357 299 +/ 4, 299308 283 +/ 4 256 +/ 3, 229232 181.3+/1.5, 183208 155175, 162 +/1.2 155175, 156 +/ 1.2 141151, 156 +/ 1.2 114132, 125 +/ 0.8 787 +/ 29 787 +/ 29, 733805 733805 663 +/ 39, 649717
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0,0005
0,0004
0,0003
0,0002
0,0001
days
FIGURE 4. Cycles of variations of the solar constant since February 14, 1947 through December 31, 2000 data [12] calculated by Real Space periodogramme analysis.
1.4 1.3 1.2 Lg I (R.U.) 1.1 1 0.9 0.8 0 50000 100000 Years B.P. 150000 200000 250000 A
50000
150000
200000
250000
Lg I (R.U.)
Years B.P.
FIGURE 5. A solar insolation luminescence proxy record from Duhlata Cave, Bulgaria (A). Sum of the orbital variations (B) and solar irradiance (C) extracted from the record. It demonstrates that during the last 60 000 years intensity of solar irradiance variations prevailed over the orbital variations in solar insolation. All curves are presented in decimal logarithm relative units.
Our experimentally measured solar insolation proxy records contain variations produced by both Earths orbital and solar irradiance variations [4]. In order to obtain a record of the past solar irradiance (Fig. 5(c)) it is necessary to extract the orbital variations from an insolation record by a band-pass filter set for the orbital frequencies (Fig. 9(b)). The remaining signal contains only solar irradiance self-variations (Fig. 9(d)).
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In order to quantitatively compare the intensities of all cycles present in our data we have designed a special algorithm and computer code that plots the periodogramme in the coordinates Cycle Intensity/Period. It is called Real Space periodogramme analysis [5] and is used in all calculations of cycles in this paper. It allows comparison of the real intensity of the solar irradiance variations with the intensity of the variation of the insolation produced by the precession cycles (as precisely calculated by Berger and Loutre [19]). This way we calibrated obtained cycles of solar irradiance in % of the solar constant or in W m2 (Table 1).
FIGURE 6. Cycles in the inverted atmospheric 14-C production solar wind proxy data [17].
10
3000
4000
5000
FIGURE 8. Cycles in the past Geomagnetic Field Intensity (virtual axial dipole momentum) data [20].
We obtained independent experimental evidence that low- frequency variations of geomagnetic dipole moment have solar origin. It is demonstrated in Table 1. Here we calculated cycles in the record of the intensity of
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geomagnetic dipole moment during the last 80 000 years [20] and in a long record of the solar irradiance [13], which is completely independent on the geomagnetic field [21, 22]. All cycles of geomagnetic field exist also in variations of the solar irradiance (Table 1) which demonstrates their solar origin. Solar wind modulates the geomagnetic dipole moment which modulates cosmic rays flux [23] producing 14C. So the inverted variations of the 14C production can be used as solar wind proxy [24]. We studied long 14C solar wind proxy records in order to reveal prolonged solar wind cycles. It is widely used for this purpose (Table 2). Inverted rate of atmospheric 14C production as derived from the standard radiocarbon calibration curve represents good proxy record of the past variations of the solar wind flux at the upper atmosphere because it modulates the galactic cosmic rays flux, which produces the radiocarbon there. Sonett [25] found that a cycle with a period of about 900 years has intensity 57 times higher than that of the well-known centennial cycle in the 14-C solar proxy record. Stuiver and Braziunas [26] calculated MEM- spectra of the same record and claimed that changes occur in the Suns convective zone with a fundamental oscillatory mode of about 420 yr. period. and that centennial and sub-centennial cycles are about one twentieth of the strength of this 420-yr cycle. Although the uncertainty of the proportion between intensities of different cycles in the spectra calculated by these authors cannot be estimated, their work suggests that longer solar cycles are about one order of magnitude stronger than the solar cycles detected by direct measurements. Calculated periodogrammes of the JC11 luminescent record demonstrated that the solar cycle of about 900 years has intensity only 34% of the 11 500-yr cycle and the solar cycle of about 420 years has intensity less than 2.5% of the 11 500-yr cycle (see Table 1); thus the 11 500-yr cycle should have intensity of several orders of magnitude higher, than the observed centennial and sub-centennial cycles. The 11 500 year cycle was found previously to be the most intensive cycle in the 14C calibration record and was interpreted to be of geomagnetic origin [17]. Our recent studies suggest that this is a solar cycle modulating the geomagnetic field. We determined the solar origin of other strong cycles with durations of 11 500, 4400, 3950, 2770, 2500, 2300, 2090, 1960, 1670, 1460, 1280, 1195, 1145, 1034, 935, 835, 814, 775, 750, 660, 610, 550, and 538 years and many weak cycles with duration from one to five centuries (Table 1). This was achieved by their detection in proxy records of speleothem luminescence [4], 14-C [17, 18] and the intensity of the geomagnetic dipole [20]. The main variations in the last two records are known to be produced by the solar wind.
TABLE 2. Cycles of the inverted atmospheric 14-C production solar wind proxy in years calculated in different works with different types of time series analysis. In result of the different precision of different calculations duration of the same cycle differs in some degree in the different calculations. Last column of the table shows the deviations in the determination of the duration of the same cycle in the 14-C Solar index Suess [27] Sonett [25] Sonett [28] Damon, Sonett [29] 14-C Solar index
399 498 715 930 2400 955 1183 2079 413 493 717 753 965 2311
20.1 20.8 26.3 32.7 88 105 131 146151 175 192, 207 (208) 232 299 353 385 427, 440 504, 512 649 733, 805 909 (955) 2241 (2272) (2385) 4747
2026 33 88 105 114132 141151 155175 183208 229232 299308 353357 385399 413440 493512 649717 733805 909965 1183 20792400 4750
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D
FIGURE 9. (A) Luminescence record JC11 from Jewel cave, South Dakota, USA (Top) The TIMS U/Th dating points are shown by points with 2 error bars. (B) Orbital components of Solar Insolation variations extracted from the JC11 record by a band-pass Tukey filter set for the frequencies of 41, 23 and 19 kyrs of the orbital cycles, (C) sum of the orbital variations. (D) Solar Luminosity variations extracted from JC11 Solar Insolation proxy record by subtracting of the sum of the orbital variations from the JC 11 luminescent record [5].
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0.65 0.63 0.61 0.59 Lg(I) 0.57 0.55 0.53 0.51 0.49 0.47 0.45 0 1 2 years 3 4 5
FIGURE 10. (Up) High-resolution luminescence speleothem record of solar insolation at about 1000 y B P from Cold Water Cave, Iowa. This speleothem sample has been dated by 9 TIMS U/Th ages [14]. (Down) Cycles presented in the record. The presence of a 27- day cycle of solar rotation suggests modulation of the transparency of the atmosphere by solar wind modulation of the cosmic rays flux.
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In addition to the annual cycle produced by the Earths rotation we found a sub- annual cycle with duration of 27 days in a high- resolution luminescent record from Cold Water Cave, Iowa (Fig. 10). Such cycles can be produced by the period of rotation of the Sun, which causes similar variations in the solar wind (Figs. 2 and 3) modulations of the cosmic rays flux. The rotation leads to the periodic appearance of the same active zones on the visible solar surface. They are major emitters of solar wind, so produce strong 27-days variations in its density (Figs. 2 and 3). Thus solar wind modulation of cosmic rays flux may cause strong amplification of the weak variations of the solar constant (Fig. 4) to produce measurable variations of the soil temperature measured in a ground luminescence record (Fig. 10). The integrated sky transparency may vary with up to 25% between clearest and cloudiest days [35], but if integrated over one year this variation is less then 0.65% from year to year if a normal distribution of sunny days is assumed. In fact even lower variations should be expected. This suggests that cosmic rays modulation of the climate can be more significant during short periods, especially those produced by the solar rotation. Svensmark and FriisChristensen [8] measured variations in the cloud cover of 3% during an average 11-yr. solar cycle and estimated that this caused variation of the insolation of 0.81.7 W m2. Such variation is able to produce significant climatic variation.
5. CONCLUSIONS
An 11 500- year cycle was found previously to be the most intensive cycle in the 14C calibration record and was interpreted to be of geomagnetic origin [26]. Our studies suggest that this is a solar cycle modulating the geomagnetic field and cosmic rays flux. We determined the solar origin of other strong cycles with durations of 11 500, 4400, 3950, 2770, 2500, 2300, 2090, 1960, 1670, 1460, 1280, 1195, 1145, 1034, 935, 835, 814, 775, 750, 660, 610, 550, and 538 years and of many weak cycles with duration from one to five centuries. The main variations in the 14C and geomagnetic field records are produced by the solar wind. Known decadal and even centennial solar cycles have negligible intensity relative to these cycles. These millennial solar luminosity cycles can produce climatic variations with intensity comparable to that of the orbital variations. We determined that the 11 500 year solar cycle is about 100 times more intensive than the observed cycles in sunspots. Solar luminosity and orbital variations both cause variations of solar insolation affecting the climate by the same mechanism. During the last 60 000 years intensity of solar irradiance variations has prevailed over the orbital effects, however. Solar wind cycles can affect Earths climate due to modulation of the Cosmic rays flux. Cosmic rays amplification of solar variations by changing the transparency of the air become important at durations shorter than 11 yrs and may be most significant in timescales less than one year.
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