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The Centre for Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS)


Article No.: 2377 Date: 18/05/2013
Pakistan: Elections and Beyond

Zulfiqar Shah E-Mail- shahzulf@live.com

The recent elections in Pakistan were strategically important, because the people of the anarchy-laden country had to choose their fate out of highly skewed options. For a country where no civil government could complete its constitutional term as well as transfer power through holding free, fair, and non-manipulative elections, the elections can certainly be termed as a remarkable achievement. Such a historical yet, incomplete task that should have been accomplished immediately after 1947 has been attained after sixty-five years, albeit in a halfhearted manner. News reports, public reaction, social media, visual evidences as well as observations by the EU mission and civil society monitors indicate that the elections were neither free, nor fair and non-manipulated in many parts of the country, especially in Sindh, Baluchistan, South Punjab and a larger part of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). That notwithstanding, they herald an important chapter in Pakistans history. Nawaz Sharif and his Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) have won 124 seats, mostly from central and northern Punjab and to a lesser extent from Hazara division of Pakhtunkhwa, Sindh, Baluchistan and South Punjab. Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) has been reduced to Sindh province alone, winning just a few seats in Punjab and KP. Unlike people outside Pakistan, the people of Pakistan are surprised at the extent of the success achieved by Imran Khans Pakistan Tahreek-e-Insaf party (PTI) which has now emerged as the third largest political party. Mutahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) with 18 seats is now the fourth largest party. Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam of Maulana Fazlur Rehman (JUI-F) won 10 seats and retained the position of fifth largest party. Against expectations by analysts, Pir Pagara-Pakistan Muslim LeagueFunctional (PML-F) won five seats in the federal legislature. PML-N will be forming the central government and has tied up with PMLF from Sindh and Pakhtunkhwa Mili Awami Party (PkMAP) of Baluchistan as allies in the central government. It is also expected that PML-N may seek alliance with JI and possibly with JUI-F. PML-N could also form a coalition government in Baluchistan, it has however, declined the offer by JUI-F of forming the government in KP. PPP and MQM will be forming a coalition government in Sindh. The elections have been marred by allegations of election rigging. For the first time in Pakistans history, the media, mostly social media started telecasting and circulating the video clips of election rigging at various polling stations in Karachi, Hyderabad, rural Sindh, South Punjab and KP. Reports emanating from the print and electronic media and from international election observers, talk of heavy rigging in Sindh. They also noted that the voter turn-out was more than 100 percent in some constituency, which means that the number of votes casted were higher than the registered voters particularly in Karachi. This indicator alone establishes the higher level of election fraud and rigging. Election Commission of Pakistan also admitted on May 13 that the elections in Karachi, Hyderabad and some other parts of Sindh were not fair. PMLF has claimed that its five candidates in the National Assembly and 28 in Sindh
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Provincial Assembly gained the maximum votes but lost as the election process and the results were rigged. Sindhi nationalists, mainly Sindh United Party, Qaumi Awami Tahreek and Sindh Taraqi Passand Party has said that their candidates on at least three National Assembly seats and around 10 in Sindh Assembly should have won had the results not been rigged. Besides, another Sindhi political party with nationalist leanings, National Peoples Party has secure two seats in the National Assembly and three in the Sindh Provincial Assembly. In fact, Sindh has become the centre stage of massive agitation against election rigging in the province with unexpected public outpourings in the streets of Karachi and other cities and towns. The Election commission has also received formal complaints of rigging from 12 districts in Sindh, nearly 30 districts in Punjab most of them from Southern Siraiki belt, 9 districts in Baluchistan and some districts in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). There is surprise in Pakistan over PMLN candidates winning from Baluchistan and the Baloch nationalist leader Akhtar Mengals Balochistan National Party (BNP) losing many seats. In Baluchistan, voter turnout was reported to be five percent in some constituencies as Baluchistans radical nationalist parties boycotted the elections. Pakhtunkhwa voters were influenced in two ways. One, the Taliban terrorism harassed ANP supporters through dozens of terrorist activities in the province and the other according to analysts was vote-rigging and manipulation. The analysts also believe that vote rigging in Siraiki-speaking South Punjab led to PTI gains against PPP despite the fact that the latter was riding a popular wave for having advocated a Siraiki province. During the forthcoming government of PML-N, there are possibilities of relatively lower violence by the fundamentalists in Punjab and the non-tribal Pakhtunkhwa areas. At the same time, it would have to face Imran Khan who will not allow Sharif to compromise his rightist stance. Besides, the powerful security establishment of Pakistan may possibly engage with the Baloch nationalists through Sharif, as the federalism crisis in Pakistan is in fact a conflict between Punjabi dominated establishment and the other provinces and ethnic groups. There are also chances of civil-military antagonism, as Sharif has announced action against Musharraf on Kargil War and toppling of his previous government. This could therefore become key concern for the all stakeholder in the PML-N government. The government will also face severe economic challenges. Karachi is likely to lose its share in the economic growth of Pakistan during the next five years. Besides, the issues like Kalabagh Dam and Gwadar as well as Zulfiqarabad ports along with extensive exploitation of natural resources and international trade agreements on the coal and natural gas resources of Sindh will possibly come under limelight. Acceleration of right-wing influence or Talibanisation in Sindh, Baluchistan and South Punjab in the next five years is likely. Also, Arabisation or Saudisation of Pakistans society and politics may move to the next level. Areas of concern would be the discrimination and harassment of religious minorities like Christians and Ahmadiyya Muslims through blasphemy law and Hindus by forced conversions and abductions. The Blasphemy Law could become more stringent as right wing radicals in past were having friendly relations with PML-N. However, with Pir Pagaros PMLF being an ally in the central government, Hindus in Sindh may feel relatively secure. Being a powerful ethnic right of centre leader, Nawaz Sharif would focus on Taliban militancy, Pakistans policies as well as engagement with Afghanistan, policy approach towards the issues like Kashmir and relations with India. US-Pakistan relations would likely simmer with new interpretations. It is also expected that right of centre government in the center and rightwing government in Pakhtunkhwa will be instrumental in Pakistans policies concerning
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Afghanistan after the ISAF withdrawal in 2014. During PMLN rule, new possibilities of India Pakistan, relationships with specific focus on trade and economic exchange may emerge. Pakistan is in transition amid diverse social and state crises; due to this, an exacerbating socio-political disorder has already been looming large over the country. PMLN led coalition government has a lot on its hands to contend with as the state is on the verge of failure. Had the elections been free, fair, and non-manipulated, there would have been more chances for Pakistan to survive and create a healthier socio-political life. In the post election rigging scenario, the clouds of discontent seem to be further moving toward Sindh, Baluchistan and Siraiki South Punjab certainly on the federal and ethnic questions if not on the sectarian basis.

Zulfiqar Shah is a, Pakistan born analyst and activist. He is a research scholar affiliated with Central Department of Political Science, Tribhuvan University, Nepal and IESA- Rajasthan, India. Email: shahzulf@live.com

Views expressed are personal

R PSO C om ple x , Arm y Parade Ground, De lhi C antt, Ne w De lhi 110010, INDIA. Tel: 91-11-25691308 Arm y: 36877 Tel/Fax: (91-11) 25692347 Email: landwarfare @gm ail.com C opyright 2013 claws. All rights re se rve d.

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