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HERO MOTOCORP LIMITED
Q4, 2012-13 Results Update Industry: AUTO April 29, 2013
ICRA Online Grading Matrix Valuation Assessment A 5 4 3 2 1
Results in line with expectations; two-wheeler industry volume growth outlook remains weak Volumes and Revenue Growth: In Q4 2012-13, the sales volumes of Hero MotoCorp Limited (HMCL) at 1.5 million units (domestic+exports), declined by 2.8% YoY, as customer demand for two-wheelers (2Ws) continued to remain soft reflected in flat industry sales volumes. Despite decline in HMCL’s volumes, its revenues at Rs. 6,072.5 Crore in Q4 2012-13 grew by 1.8% YoY by virtue of 4.8% YoY improvement in average realizations. This was largely the outcome of a favourable product mix attributable to rise in volume proportion of 125cc bikes and scooters, at the expense of 100cc bikes; and partly due to a marginal increase in product prices (by Rs. 300 per vehicle) implemented with effect from October 2012. Overall, the company’s revenues in 2012-13 were in line with our estimates. We expect HMCL’s revenues to grow by ~4% in 2013-14. Profitability: HMCL recorded EBITDA margin of 12.8% in Q4 2012-13, which was in line with our estimates. While the company’s margins in Q4 2012-13 were up 72 basis points (bps) on QoQ basis, the margins shrunk by 152 bps on YoY basis. This was consequent to rise in royalty costs pertaining to two new model launches (Ignitor and Passion XPro) and increase in power and transportation costs. The decline in HMCL’s volumes combined with increase in costs resulted in 4.9% YoY decline in HMCL’s PAT to Rs. 574.2 Crore in Q4 2012-13. The decline could have been sharper but for the reduced effective tax rate (16.3% in Q4 2012-13 Vs 19.2% effective tax rate in Q4 2011-12) in view of higher proportion of profits contribution from the company’s Haridwar plant where the company enjoyed 100% income tax exemption till March 2013. We expect HMCL’s EBITDA margins to improve to 14.2% in 2013-14 as the company looks to benefit from its ongoing cost rationalization programme, besides a benign raw material cost environment. The key downside risks to our margin estimates shall be the direction of currency movement, the company’s ability to sustain the scale required to absorb the additional expenses being incurred for building R&D capability and spending related to exports scale-up. Equity Grading: We retain the fundamental grade of “5/5” assigned to HMCL, considering the 2W industry’s steady growth prospects over the medium term, the strong brand equity enjoyed by HMCL’s select models and the company’s established supply chain, distribution channel and scale economies. We also retain the valuation grade of ‘C’ for HMCL on a grading scale of ‘A to E’, which indicates that the company is ‘fairly valued’ on a relative basis.
Operating Income (Rs. crore) EBITDA Margin (%) PAT Margin (%) EPS (Rs.) EPS Growth (%) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE RoCE EV/EBITDA FY12A 23,579.0 15.4% 10.1% 119.1 23% 13.8 7.7 65.6% 77.4% 7.8 FY13E 23,768.1 13.8% 8.8% 105.2 -12% 15.7 6.6 45.2% 53.5% 8.6 FY14P 24,819.2 14.2% 8.2% 102.0 -3% 16.2 5.8 38.1% 47.9% 8.0 FY15P 27,384.9 14.2% 10.0% 136.5 34% 12.1 5.0 44.4% 56.7% 7.3
Key Stock Statistics
Current Market Price* (Rs.) Shares Outstanding (crore) Market Cap (Rs. crore) 52-Week High (Rs.) 52-Week Low (Rs.) Free Float (%) Beta P/E on FY13 EPS (x) *As on April 29, 2013 1,648.8 19.97 32,924 2,279 1,434 51% 0.8 15.7
14 12 10 8.6
Fundamental Grading of ‘5’ indicates “Very Strong Fundamentals” Valuation Grading of ‘C’ indicates “Fairly Valued” on a relative basis
10.0 8.0 7.3
6 4 2 0 2012-13
Source: ICRA Online’s Estimates
Shareholding Pattern (March 2013)
Foreign Institutions, 30.6% Domestic Institutions, 8.5%
Indian Promoter Group, 52.2%
Relative Share Price Movement (18 months)
130 120 110
90 80 70 60
Source: Company, ICRA Online’s Estimates
Chart 1: Annual Trend in HMCL's Domestic 2W Sales Volumes and Market Share Chart 2: Quarterly Trend in HMCL's Domestic 2W Sales Volumes and Market Share 7. Even in Q1 2012-13.7% QoQ – as the company experienced sequential improvement in EBITDA margins. HMCL had introduced a new scooter brand Maestro (targeted at male population) in March 2012 to complement the already existing Pleasure model (targeted at female customers). The effective tax rate was consistent at 16.1% in 2011-12). Net Profits: HMCL’s Q4 2012-13 PAT at Rs.5%. This resulted in sharp erosion in HMCL’s market share in the motorcycle segment to 50. the volume share of the scooters segment in the domestic two-wheeler industry increased to 21. On the back of discrete positioning of these two brands.0 3.0 1. 574. against 1. In Q4 2012-13. HMCL maintained a steady monthly production volume run rate and capitalized on the sales opportunity offered by the festive period allowing it to regain some of its lost market share which stood at 51.0 2008-09 Source: SIAM 38% 2009-10 Volumes 2010-11 2011-12 Market Share 2012-13 Q1 FY12 Q2 FY12 Q3 FY12 Q4 FY12 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 36% Volumes Market Share Source: SIAM Over the last two years. HMCL further consolidated its position in both the 2W segments on the back of its strong market position in the relatively faster growing entry segment of bikes. the sales volumes of the domestic scooters segment recorded a growth of 3.0 2. the growth in volumes of the scooters segment has generally outperformed that of the motorcycles segment (barring Q1.) 50% 48% million units (Nos.8% YoY improvement in average realizations. sales volumes of HMCL’s 100cc bikes declined sharply by 16.9% YoY but grew by 17. in Q2 2012-13. In Q4 2012-13 too. EBITDA Margins: HMCL’s EBITDA margins at 12. HMCL’s market share in this largest sub-segment of twowheelers (that accounted for 73% of the 2W industry’s domestic sales volumes in 2012-13) had improved from 54.8% YoY (1.5 42% 40% 38% 0. same as in Q1 2011-12 (56.0 million units (Nos. besides steady scale-up in volumes of new models launched in 2012-13. following sharp production cut undertaken by the company for its Splendor and Passion brands.8% YoY.2 Crore declined by 4.) 2. relatively lower amortization charges (Yen benefit) and higher non-operating income.0 1. HMCL improves market share in both the motorcycles segment as well as in the scooters segment in Q4 2012-13 vis-à-vis Q3 2012-13 Despite rise in competitive intensity in the domestic motorcycle segment over the last one year following the launch of several new models by various OEMs and aggressive expansion efforts of smaller players. HMCL has been able to improve its relative standing in the segment over the years.5 48% 46% 44% 5.1% in Q4 2011-12). 6. reflected in its ability to surpass TVS 2 .8% YoY. However.7% in 2010-11 to 55. even as volumes dipped by 2.072.9% in 2011-12.9% in Q3 2012-13.5 Crore grew by 1. HMCL’s market share in the domestic motorcycle segment stood at 56.8% in Q4 2012-13 decreased by 152 bps YoY but improved by 72 bps QoQ as the company’s ‘other expenditure’ (which comprises of marketing costs. Overall.ICRA Equity Research Service Hero MotoCorp Limited Q4 2012-13 Results Revenues: HMCL’s Q4 2012-13 Net Sales at Rs.5% YoY. besides rise in competition.0 0. In Q3 2012-13.0% in Q2 2012-13.0 4. royalty charges and power and transportation costs) increased substantially during the last quarter. HMCL had been able to sustain its strong market position in this segment. In fact.0 6.3% during each of the four quarters of 2012-13.9% YoY decline in motorcycle sales volumes. partly due to the former’s smaller base. however.0 46% 44% 42% 40% 1. 2011-12).2% in 2012-13 (19.3% QoQ decline) on the back of 4.
6%. HMCL’s success in significantly growing its exports will be an upside to our estimates. vast distribution network.9% in Q4 2012-13. favourable demographics. we expect HMCL’s 8% EBITDA margin to improve gradually over the ensuing 3000 6% quarters benefitting from (a) benign raw material cost 2000 4% environment. and (c) cost 0 0% rationalization initiatives being taken across cost heads. 1. Crore 3 . Over the medium term. the company is in the process of setting-up an integrated R&D centre near Jaipur. (b) increase in raw material import costs 6000 12% due to depreciation of INR against JPY. We expect HMCL to maintain its leadership status over the medium term by virtue of the company’s strong brand equity. its ability to scale-up operations to absorb the expected increase in R&D costs and product launch/ distribution costs in overseas Chart 3: Quarterly Trend in HMCL's Revenues and Margins 7000 16% Rs. Q3 FY12 Q4 FY12 Q1 FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 On the back of these factors. Over the last one year. At the same time. 60 per vehicle (~Rs. we expect HMCL’s EBITDA Net Sales EBITDA Margins Net Margins margins to improve to 14. HMCL may be able to partially neutralize the relative moderation in sales volume growth in the motorcycles segment. a US superbike company). 125 cc bike Ignitor and 110cc scooter Maestro in its portfolio. established supply chain and healthy cost structure. moderate 2W penetration. and (c) increase in 5000 10% marketing spends as well as royalty charges related to 4000 launch of new models. although medium term growth drivers stay intact We expect the 2W industry (domestic + exports) to record a sales volume CAGR of 8-9% over the four year period till 201617 and HMCL’s net sales to also grow at CAGR of 8-9% during the above period. (b) price increase of Rs. HMCL’s ongoing capacity expansion push in the form of setting up new plants at Neemrana (Rajasthan) and Gujarat is expected to allow it to capitalize on the growth opportunities continued to be offered by the 2W industry. its long-run impact on HMCL’s market position and earnings would be favourable.2% in 2013-14. As HMCL continues to focus on model-specific ad spends in the near term. HMCL has firmed up partnerships with Erik Buell Racing (EBR.4% in 2011-12 to 13. The company Source: Company Results. Also. initiatives which should augment overall sales volumes of HMCL. Volume growth outlook over the near term remains weak. HMCL’s EBITDA margins declined in 2012-13 over the previous year but improvement over current levels expected in 2013-14 HMCL’s EBITDA margins declined from 15. HMCL has maintained its market leadership in the 2W industry particularly in the entry and executive segment of motorcycles.6% in Q3 2012-13). trailed by TVS at 12. the company’s ability to maintain its market share over the long term would critically hinge on its success in developing in-house technical capability to maintain a contemporary product portfolio.8% in 2012-13 consequent to (a) pressure on sales 14% volume growth. HMCL is now the second largest player with 21. commanding a market share of 47. AVL (the Austrian engine manufacturer) and Engines Engineering (a motorcycle design house based in Italy). Over the years. While there are no near term concerns on HMCL’s competitive position. With this. 500 to Rs.1% market share in Q4 2012-13 (20. HMCL’s margins will remain sensitive to the direction of currency movement. The volume growth of the domestic 2W industry is expected to be driven by favourable underlying demand drivers like rising per capita GDP.ICRA Equity Research Service Hero MotoCorp Limited Motors Company Limited (TVS) in Q4 2011-12 to emerge as the second largest player.500 1000 2% undertaken across models in April 2013. besides introducing the Passion X-Pro 110cc bike in October 2012. it is likely to enable it to further consolidate its position in the fast growing scooters segment. ICRA Online's Estimates management has indicated that its recent industry-first initiative to offer five-year warranty on its products is estimated to have a cost impact of Rs. the company has been relatively more aggressive in introducing new products vis-a-vis competition having added the 150 cc on-road off-road bike Impulse. 35 Crore per annum) but given that this initiative would further increase customer confidence on its products. While Honda Motorcycles and Scooters India Limited (HMSI) continues to remain the distant market leader in the scooters segment. However. We expect competitive pressures in the domestic 2W industry to remain high following increased pace of new product/ variant launches and strong focus on distribution network expansion by most players. growing urbanization and swelling replacement demand.
notwithstanding increasing competitive pressures.5 6.5 852.3 1. In such a scenario.1% QoQ% -1. it would be critical for some of the key vendors of HMCL to continue to draw technical support from their existing Japanese collaborators.0 30.0% -5.4 2.962.7 11.9% EBITDA Margin 12.5 685.8 13. 2012-13 6.8 Bajaj Auto Limited# FY13 17.2% -4. 2011-12 5. 2012-13 6.0 1. Hence.9 20.1 Q3.2 0.5 5. Crore Net Sales Other Related Income Operating Income EBITDA Depreciation Extra-ordinary gain/(loss) PBT PAT Number of Shares (crore) EPS CEPS Q4.4 6. 2013 #Bloomberg Consensus Estimates as on April 29.4 746.8% -9.9 8. 2013). HMCL^ FY13 Price/ Earnings EV/ EBITDA Price/ Sales Price/ Book Value Price/ Cash Flow 15.7 8.1 0.8% PAT Margin 9.3 283.072.7% 17.7 7.4 38.3 10.7%. Valuation Grade Since our last update (on January 18.3% 10.8 NSE S&P CNX Nifty Index# FY13 FY14E 11.3 6.6 12. we maintain the valuation grade of ‘C’ for HMCL on a grading scale of ‘A to E’.7 11.5 265.8% 1.5 1.151.3% -1. some vendors of HMCL may have to upgrade their in-house design capabilities or forge alternate tie-ups to continue to have access to new technology.9% Q4. Also.3% 4. which may in turn result in increase in costs for HMCL.0 28.6 FY14E 16.5 ^ICRA Online’s Estimates based on share price as on April 29.1 1. We believe HMCL’s current valuations factor in the company’s steady market position (barring recent blips) in the domestic 2W industry and steady earnings growth.ICRA Equity Research Service Hero MotoCorp Limited markets.8 42.2 times FY14E earnings) to be at a premium to its nearest listed competitor and also the broader indices.3 14.7 13.2 10.6% -6. We find HMCL’s current valuation (16.962.1 6. other factors including intensifying competition leading to diminished pricing power and higher amortization charges are likely to restrict expansion in net margins.7 574.8 5.8 7. Further.2% 17.2 44.5% Source: Company Results. Although HMCL’s stock trades at a premium as compared to the broader indices.5 776.9 BSE Auto Index# FY13 9.6% and the BSE Auto Index has declined by 3.3 742. which indicates that the company is ‘fairly valued’ on a relative basis.1 6.9 280.6 1.151.6 7.3 5.5 5. S&P CNX Nifty has declined by 2.2 20.6 20.7 1.0 16.2 8.3 FY14E 14.0 24. HMCL’s stock price has declined by 6.1% 7.6 487.3 FY14E 9.8 2.7% YoY% 1.072. something which may not be as forthcoming as it was when the Hero Group and Honda (Japan) were partners.9 603. 2013 P&L Results Rs.6 2.8 8.5%. we believe the premium is justified in view of the relatively stable financial performance expectations from the company.2 582.6 2. ICRA Online’s Estimates 4 .3% -8.3 5.
283.686.0 2.768.87.884.101. Crore) Net Fixed Assets Capital Work-in-Progress Total Net Fixed Assets Total Long-Term Investments Cash and Bank Balances Receivables Inventories Loans & Advances Other Current Assets Total Assets Liabilities (Rs.9 2012-13E 3.623.283.9 0.8 2.259.3 76.0 23.0 1.8 13.500 68.5 2015-16P 4.2 0.0 136.2 1.539.500 109.0 0.8 1996.1 0.3 2.1 772.053.2 2.330.725.264.1 3. Total Liabilities 2011-12A 23.037.8 2.3 348.625.255.9 4.0 9.227.1 102.284.1 211.1 174.571.9 2.9 381.0 2.2 866.6% 3.0 3.0 0.2 0.2 783.6 479.0 3.1 3.1 0.5 2014-15P 6.4 2013-14P 24.3 332.873.1 0.ICRA Equity Research Service Hero MotoCorp Limited Annexure I: P&L Estimates Rs.402.249.0 0.684.8 0.037.1 0.8 181.4 2.641.7 185.0 0.768.904.8 0.9 0.0 1.446.0 132.0 3.4 2011-12A 3.9 3.3 213.056.9 12.9 0.512.3 11.0 1.3 9.1 0.6 385.264.699.0 2.7 1996.075.4 12.7 0. Crore) Net Worth Minority Interest Total Debt Deferred Tax Liability Trade Creditors Other Current Liabilities and Prov.6 193.882.579.0 4.1 0.3 717.4 498.2 2014-15P 27.6 27.87.5 1.4 5 .7 2013-14P 5.384.0 1.864.0 2.0 869.289.537.004.6 0.368.7 2014-15P 3.635.6 24.101.0 636.1 1996.0 3.9 10.2 700. Crore Net Sales Other Related Income Operating Income (OI) OI Growth EBITDA Depreciation & Ammortization EBIT Interest Expenses Other Income/ (expense) PBT (before extraordinaries) Extraordinary gain/ (loss) PAT Minority Interest PAT (Concern Share) No of Shares (Cr) DPS EPS CEPS Annexure II: Balance Sheet Estimates Assets (Rs.3 200.0 132.0 2.0 665.446.9 5.87.819.0 10.4 30.4 2015-16P 7.1 0.9 21.4 1.142.8 272.725.888.520.133.500 70.3 9.5 499.0 165.354.0 2.615.572.9 11.4 189.378.8% 3.0 0.7 0.5 0.904.4 1.8 0.1 0.097.5 373.4 23.255.7 365.2 3.87.293.7 2012-13E 5.0 21.261.320.582.0 959.171.463.7 164.0 132.4 2.1 2.6 38.9 10.7 11.006.4 2015-16P 30.6 17.5 3.641.3% 3.1% 4.6 3.7 200.141.8 0.1 13.2 4.500 52.167.004.2 150.964.0 2.810.2 105.378.940.5 172.3 675.0 2012-13E 23.855.0 2.994.2 126.96.36.199 1996.500 91.3 2.979.592.0 208.460.7 2013-14P 3.4 239.572.4 2.6 14.2 162.4 0.7 0.3 119.612.0 132.8 3.0 2.1 1996.7 0.0 3.3 1.0 1.9 9.4% 3.0 3.9 2011-12A 4.
050.401.4) (1.8 71.0 (1.8 (13.4 (295.8) (1.5 (427.2 (1.7) 2.7) 0.5 76.1 374.729.0 0.0 200.0 (1.4) (1.6) (11.0 (1.817.0 426.8) 0.6) 3.911.0 0.359.9 460.4) (21.0 (1.354.0 200.4) 1.4 0.6 (1.520.0) 3.0 (1.700.8) (12.8 1.0 (1.818.5) 0.635.5) (1.3 (14. Crore) EBITDA Less: Taxes Changes in Net Working Capital Net Interest Charges Cash flow from operating activities Investments Capital expenditure Cash flow from investing activities Equity Raised / (Buyback) Loans Raised / (Repaid) Others (Including Extra-ordinaries) Dividend Cash Flow from Financing activities Cumulative cash flow Opening Cash Balance Closing Cash Balance 2011-12A 2012-13E 2013-14P 2014-15P 2015-16P 3.ICRA Equity Research Service Hero MotoCorp Limited Annexure III: Cash Flow Estimates Cash Flows (Rs.0 (1.037.0) 1.2 525.284.0 147.6) 3.0 0.0 0.7) 3.4 574.7 (236.0 0.0 0.5 411.5 76.696.0 (1.0 0.4) 3.039.516.5) (0.884.5 1.162.9 181.064.0 0.1) 328.204.8 181.8) 865.6 150.0) 200.1 (2.0 6 .044.0 0.1) (1.044.060.817.0 0.0) 4.7) (850.3) 926.4 1.0 150.0 (428.0 0.029.9) 1.5 (745.1) 916.061.062.1) (1.042.3 814.401.039.359.
the Hero Group bought out the entire 26% of HMC’s stake in HMCL. product performance and distribution strengths. Glamour and Ignitor in the Executive segment. Splendor. Hunk. Dharuhera (Haryana) and Haridwar (Uttarakhand) with an aggregate capacity to produce 7. CBZ Xtreme. HMCL has three manufacturing facilities located at Gurgaon (Haryana). Super Splendor. in December 2010. Impulse and Karizma in the Premium segment. (2) high concentration on Executive segment. HMCL was promoted as a joint venture (JV) between the Hero Group of the Munjal family and Honda Motor Company (HMC. HMCL offers motorcycles in all the three 2W segments: CD Dawn and CD Deluxe in the Entry segment. 7 . a position that it has been holding for the last ten consecutive years. the management of HMCL signed a new licensing agreement with HMC. and Achiever. with each holding around 26% equity stake in the company.0 million vehicles per annum as of March 31. 2012. Japan). The company made its debut in the scooters segment in January 2006 with the launch of Pleasure in the ungeared scooters segment and launched a new scooter Maestro in March 2012. GRADING SENSITIVITIES Key sensitivities to our estimates include: (1) inflation in input costs not being neutralised by price increases because of competitive pressures. (2) industry growth exceeds our estimates over the medium term despite existing concerns on macro-economic scenario. (4) ability to develop in-house technical capability or form alternate technical tie-ups with external institutions. high operating efficiency and established scale economies. professional management. However. Passion. (3) HMCL betters the margins estimated by us via sustained business growth and increases in operating efficiency even in the face of competitive and cost pressures. strong brand equity. high profitability and cash generation.ICRA Equity Research Service Hero MotoCorp Limited COMPANY PROFILE Hero MotoCorp Limited (HMCL). leveraging its brand equity. as part of which. Splendor and Passion are the two largest selling 2W brands in the country. The Hero Group and HMC agreed to restructure their respective equity positions in HMCL. (3) intensifying competition from global players. Potential upsides to our estimates: (1) HMCL sustains its current market share. formerly Hero Honda Motors Limited. is the world’s largest two-wheeler (2W) company in terms of sales volumes. Strong financial profile characterised by healthy margins. GRADING POSITIVES Market leadership.
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