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Market Outlook

August 19, 2013

Dealers Diary
Indian markets are expected to open with a negative bias following negative start
to SGX Nifty and weak opening in most of the Asian indices.
US markets extended the sharp sell-off seen on Thursday, during the trading
session on Friday. Worries about the outlook for the Federal Reserve's stimulus
program weighed on the investor sentiments. Meanwhile, majority of the European
markets ended the trading session on Friday with modest gains, rebounding from
sell-off seen on Thursday. The U.S. weekly jobless claims data released yesterday
renewed investor fears that the Federal Reserve could begin tapering its stimulus
measures as early as its next 2-day policy meeting, which begins on September 17.
Those fears eased a bit late Friday, after the release of weaker than expected U.S.
consumer sentiment report.
Meanwhile, Indian markets plunged by around 4 percent each, their biggest
single-day loss in almost two years, as the Indian rupee fell to a record low and
breached the 62 mark against the dollar in early trading on Friday. Investor
sentiment took a beating after the RBI on Wednesday announced additional
measures aimed at moderating capital outflows. While Finance Minister P
Chidambaram defended the steps saying there was no intention of bringing back
capital controls, some analysts read the signal as an indication of panic.

Domestic Indices

Chg (%)

(Pts)

(Close)

BSE Sensex

(4.0)

(769) 18,598

Nifty

(4.1)

(234)

5,508

MID CAP

(2.7)

(152)

5,439

SMALL CAP

(2.2)

(116)

5,269

BSE HC

(1.4)

(131)

8,985

BSE PSU

(4.7)

(253)

5,170

BANKEX

(5.6)

(635) 10,801

AUTO

(2.4)

(260) 10,620

METAL

(5.6)

(409)

6,954

OIL & GAS

(4.8)

(410)

8,161

BSE IT

(2.3)

(172)

7,444

(Pts)

(Close)

Global Indices

Chg (%)

Dow Jones

(0.2)

NASDAQ

(0.1)

(3)

3,603

0.3

17

6,500

FTSE

(31) 15,081

Markets Today

Nikkei

(0.7)

(103) 13,650

The trend deciding level for the day is 18,823/ 5,574 levels. If NIFTY trades above
this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally
up to 19,086 19,574 / 5,651 5,794 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below
18,823/ 5,574 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to
18,335 18,072 / 5,430 5,353 levels.

Hang Sang

(0.1)

(21) 22,518

Straits Times

(0.7)

(23)

3,198

Shanghai Com

(0.6)

(13)

2,068

Chg (%)

(Pts)

(Close)

$48.4

Indices

Indian ADR

S2

S1

PIVOT

R1

R2

INFY

(1.0)

(0.5)

SENSEX

18,072

18,335

18,823

19,086

19,574

WIT

(0.3)

(0.0)

$9.4

NIFTY

5,353

5,430

5,574

5,651

5,794

IBN

(5.8)

(1.8)

$29.6

HDB

(3.0)

(1.0)

$30.6

News Analysis
Government clears big-ticket investment projects worth `1.1 lac cr
Sesa Sterlite merger becomes effective
Blue Stars may take price hike

Refer detailed news analysis on the following page

Purch
2,827
492

Net
295
23

MTD
1,424
78

YTD
66,821
(14,268)

FII Derivatives (August 16, 2013)


Purch
3,476
3,332

Sales
4,463
2,587

Net
(987)
745

Open Interest
12,403
26,879

Gainers / Losers
Company

Gainers
Price (`)
chg (%)

Company

Losers
Price (`)
chg (%)

JPPOWER

12

15.0

Cadila Health

708

(5.1)

Tata Motors

319

9.7

Federal Bank

318

(5.0)

Engineers India

139

8.5

Gitanjali Gems

59

(5.0)

Amara Raja

277

8.0

Yes Bank

283

(3.5)

Tata Comm

165

7.3

JSW Steel

504

(3.3)

www.angelbroking.com

NSE

Advances

711

247

1,608

1,074

131

83

Unchanged

Sales
2,532
469

` cr
Index Futures
Stock Futures

BSE

Declines

Net Inflows (August 14, 2013)


` cr
FII
MFs

Advances / Declines

Volumes (` cr)

BSE

2,132

NSE

13,875

Market Outlook
August 19, 2013

Government clears big-ticket investment projects worth `1.1 lac cr


The government has given final nod to start operation for 28 big-ticket investment
projects worth `1.1lakh cr, stuck for years for myriad government clearances. This
clearance has come as a relief for investors which include 18 power projects with a
generation capacity of 15,500MW, 4 highway projects worth `4,400cr and a
`1,200cr steel plant in Odisha. Further, the coal ministry has agreed to sign fuel
supply agreements for all these projects by August 31. Also, petroleum distillation
units worth `1,419cr, being set up by Bharat Petroleum and three critical railway
lines in poorly connected states such as Chhattisgarh, Mizoram and Assam, with
an investment outlay of over `7,100cr, have secured the requisite clearances. We
believe this would help revive confidence in the Indian economy, with domestic
players having virtually abandoned fresh investments.

Sesa Sterlite merger becomes effective


Vedanta group's proposed merger of its subsidiaries Sesa Goa and Sterlite
Industries to create a merged entity, Sesa Sterlite, has now become effective. The
record date for determining the shareholders to whom the equity shares of Sesa
Goa will be allotted as per terms has been decided to be August 28, 2013. We
maintain our Buy ratings on the stocks of Sesa Goa and Sterlite Industries with
target prices of '155 and '92, respectively.

Blue Stars may take price hike


As per media reports, Blue Star plans to increase prices of its air conditioners up to
5 percent in addition to its earlier price hike of 6 percent in 1QFY2014. This price
hike will help in maintaining its operating margins by offsetting the impact of the
weak rupee and additional cost to comply with changes in energy efficiency ratings
norms. As per the Bureau of Energy Efficiency, the energy efficiency ratio for all
star bands would go up from January 1, 2014. Compliance with new energy
efficiency ratio norms will increase costs for the companies. In order to maintain its
margins, company has to pass on the cost to its customers and hence we do not
expect material change to our estimate. We maintain our buy recommendation on
the stock with the target price of `208 based on a target EV/sales of 0.7x for
FY2015E.

Economic and Political News

Relax gold import norms for exporters: Commerce Ministry


FMC set to put NSEL through fitness test
Reserve price for spectrum auctions may be cut
India receives `2,196,28cr industrial investment proposals in 2012-2013

Corporate News

R-Power successfully tests Sasan, but March commissioning stands


ONGC, RIL & BG to invest `950cr in Panna field
AirAsia India might delay launch plans
Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
August 19, 2013
Global economic events release calendar
Date

Time

Country Event Description

Unit

Period

Bloomberg Data
Last Reported Estimated

August 21, 2013

7:30PM

US

Million

Jul

5.08

5.12

August 22, 2013

1:00PM

Germany PMI Services

Value

Aug A

51.30

--

1:00PM

Germany PMI Manufacturing

Value

Aug A

50.70

--

7:30PM

Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence

7:30PM

US

New home sales

August 23, 2013

Existing home sales

Value

Aug A

(17.40)

--

Thousands

Jul

497.00

490.00

2:00PM

UK

GDP (YoY)

% Change

2Q P

1.40

--

August 27, 2013

7:30PM

US

Consumer Confidence

S.A./ 1985=100

Aug

80.30

--

August 29, 2013

6:00PM

US

GDP Qoq (Annualised)

% Change

2Q S

1.70

--

1:25PM

Germany Unemployment change (000's)

Thousands

Aug

(7.00)

--

August 30, 2013

5:30PM

India

Qtrly GDP YoY%

% Change

2Q

4.80

--

September 1, 2013

6:30AM

China

PMI Manufacturing

Value

Aug

50.30

--

September 2, 2013

2:00PM

UK

PMI Manufacturing

September 5, 2013

4:30PM

UK

BOE Announces rates

5:15PM

Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates

2:00PM

UK

Industrial Production (YoY)

6:00PM

US

Change in Nonfarm payrolls

September 6, 2013

Value

Aug

54.60

--

% Ratio

Sep 5

0.50

0.50

Sep 5

0.50

--

% Change

Jul

1.20

--

Thousands

Aug

162.00

--

6:00PM

US

Unnemployment rate

Aug

7.40

--

September 8, 2013

4:29PM

China

Exports YoY%

% Change

Aug

5.10

--

September 9, 2013

7:00AM

China

Consumer Price Index (YoY)

% Change

Aug

2.70

--

September 10, 2013

4:29PM

India

Imports YoY%

% Change

Aug

(6.20)

--

4:29PM

India

Exports YoY%

% Change

Aug

11.64

--

11:00AM

China

Industrial Production (YoY)

% Change

Aug

9.70

--

September 12, 2013

5:30PM

India

Industrial Production YoY

% Change

Jul

(2.20)

--

September 17, 2013

2:00PM

UK

CPI (YoY)

% Change

Aug

2.80

--

September 18, 2013

11:30PM

US

FOMC rate decision

Sep 18

0.25

--

11:00AM

India

RBI Repo rate

Sep 18

7.25

--

11:00AM

India

RBI Cash Reserve ratio

Sep 18

4.00

--

11:00AM

India

RBI Reverse Repo rate

Sep 18

6.25

--

7:30AM

China

Real GDP (YoY)

% Change

3Q

7.50

--

October 18, 2013

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Market Outlook
August 19, 2013

Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends

Exhibit 2: IIP trends

(%)

(%)
10.0

11.4

6.0

4.0
2.0

(1.0) (0.6)

(0.7)

(4.0)

Mfg. PMI

60.0
7.2

7.3

Apr-13

Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI

(%)
7.3

(2.2)

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Exhibit 3: Monthly WPI inflation trends


8.1

May-13

(2.8)

Jun-13

(0.1)

Jul-12

4QFY13

3QFY13

2QFY13

1QFY13

4QFY12

3QFY12

2QFY12

1QFY12

4QFY11

3QFY11

2QFY11

1QFY11

4QFY10

3QFY10

Source: CSO, Angel Research

7.3

Services PMI

58.0

7.3
5.8

5.7
4.8

4.6

4.9

56.0
54.0
52.0

4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0

50.0

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Jul-13

Jun-13

May-13

Apr-13

Mar-13

Feb-13

Jan-13

Dec-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Sep-12

Aug-12

Jul-12

Jun-12

Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion

Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends


Exports yoy growth

(%)
15.0
12.0
9.0
6.0
3.0
0.0
(3.0)
(6.0)
(9.0)
(12.0)
(15.0)

46.0

May-12

Jul-13

Jun-13

May-13

Apr-13

Mar-13

Feb-13

Jan-13

Dec-12

Nov-12

Oct-12

Sep-12

48.0

Exhibit 6: Key policy rates

Imports yoy growth

Repo rate

(%)
9.00

Reverse Repo rate

CRR

8.00
7.00
6.00

5.00
4.00

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

www.angelbroking.com

Source: RBI, Angel Research

Aug-13

Jul-13

Jun-13

Jun-13

May-13

Apr-13

Apr-13

Mar-13

Feb-13

Feb-13

Jan-13

Dec-12

Dec-12

Nov-12

Oct-12

Oct-12

Sep-12

Jul-13

Jun-13

May-13

Apr-13

Mar-13

Feb-13

Jan-13

Dec-12

Nov-12

Oct-12

Sep-12

Aug-12

3.00
Aug-12

9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0

(2.0)

Mar-13

4.7 4.8

1.9

0.6

Jan-13

5.1 5.4 5.2

Dec-12

6.0

3.5

2.5

2.0

Nov-12

6.5

Feb-13

7.5

Oct-12

9.2

7.7

Sep-12

8.6

8.4

8.0

9.9

Aug-12

9.5

9.3

2QFY10

12.0
11.0
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0

Market Outlook
August 19, 2013

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

Sales ( cr )
FY14E

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

Agri / Agri Chemical


Rallis

Neutral

145

2,820

1,674

1,923

13.7

13.7

6.8

7.6

21.3

19.1

4.0

3.5

20.0

19.6

1.8

1.6

United Phosphorus

Buy

143

225

6,340

10,091

11,302

16.5

16.5

19.2

22.5

7.5

6.4

1.2

1.0

17.0

17.2

0.8

0.6

Amara Raja Batteries

Buy

261

305

4,452

3,474

3,952

15.5

15.5

19.0

21.0

13.7

12.4

3.3

2.7

27.2

24.2

1.3

1.1

Apollo Tyres

Neutral

65

3,279

13,409

15,106

11.8

11.6

13.1

15.4

5.0

4.2

0.8

0.7

17.9

17.8

0.4

0.3

Ashok Leyland

Buy

13

18

3,387

13,450

15,853

6.5

8.5

0.4

1.9

33.3

6.8

1.1

1.0

2.3

11.0

0.4

0.3

Automotive Axle#

Neutral

201

304

834

965

9.3

10.6

17.3

27.1

11.7

7.4

1.1

1.0

9.5

14.0

0.4

0.4

Bajaj Auto

Accumulate

1,846

2,102

53,424

21,696

25,239

19.2

19.3

119.3

140.2

15.5

13.2

5.4

4.3

38.9

36.6

2.0

1.7

Bharat Forge

Buy

222

256

5,167

5,942

6,417

15.2

15.5

15.6

19.7

14.2

11.3

2.1

1.8

15.4

17.3

1.1

0.9

Bosch India*

Accumulate

8,425

9,096

26,455

9,301

10,895

16.8

18.0

339.9

423.1

24.8

19.9

4.1

3.5

16.6

17.6

2.5

2.1

CEAT

Buy

118

170

403

5,159

5,628

9.3

9.0

43.5

48.6

2.7

2.4

0.5

0.4

18.4

17.5

0.2

0.2

Exide Industries

Accumulate

131

148

11,127

6,899

7,873

14.7

14.7

7.9

9.0

16.5

14.5

2.8

2.5

18.3

18.0

1.3

1.1

FAG Bearings*

Neutral

1,194

1,984

1,336

1,572

13.8

16.0

75.6

102.4

15.8

11.7

2.0

1.7

13.4

15.8

1.3

1.0

Hero Motocorp

Neutral

1,983

39,597

25,562

28,297

14.5

14.4

111.2

146.3

17.8

13.6

6.5

5.1

40.1

42.1

1.3

1.2

JK Tyre

Buy

90

154

370

7,972

8,754

7.1

7.1

37.5

44.0

2.4

2.1

0.4

0.3

16.4

16.6

0.3

0.3

Auto & Auto Ancillary

Mahindra and Mahindra Buy


Maruti

Buy

Motherson Sumi

Accumulate

Subros

Buy

Tata Motors

Accumulate

TVS Motor

Buy

840

1,011

51,738

42,318

48,067

12.0

12.2

58.5

67.1

14.4

12.5

2.9

2.4

21.6

21.1

1.0

0.8

1,325

1,648

40,017

45,862

52,647

11.2

11.1

94.6

109.9

14.0

12.1

1.9

1.7

14.4

14.6

0.7

0.6

229

242

13,474

28,442

31,914

8.4

8.7

13.0

16.1

17.7

14.2

4.6

3.6

29.4

28.6

0.6

0.5

20

23

118

1,230

1,398

10.5

10.5

2.3

3.8

8.4

5.2

0.4

0.4

4.8

7.6

0.3

0.3

313

355

84,433 215,043 240,077

13.5

13.7

38.7

44.1

8.1

7.1

2.0

1.6

28.5

25.1

0.5

0.4

31

36

1,463

7,659

8,528

6.0

6.2

4.9

5.9

6.3

5.2

1.1

0.9

17.8

19.0

0.1

0.1

Capital Goods
ABB*

Reduce

478

442

10,136

8,037

9,087

5.8

6.9

12.2

17.0

39.2

28.1

3.8

3.6

9.8

13.1

1.2

1.1

BGR Energy

Neutral

97

702

3,541

4,041

11.8

10.7

21.1

22.9

4.6

4.3

0.5

0.5

21.8

19.5

0.5

0.4

BHEL

Neutral

106

25,932

43,140

39,692

16.8

15.9

20.2

17.1

5.3

6.2

1.1

1.0

23.1

17.2

0.5

0.5

Blue Star

Buy

143

208

1,285

2,941

3,099

3.4

4.2

6.0

9.3

23.9

15.4

3.0

2.6

12.9

18.0

0.6

0.5

Crompton Greaves

Buy

85

103

5,424

13,446

15,272

6.7

7.6

6.6

8.9

12.8

9.5

1.4

1.3

11.4

14.0

0.5

0.5

Jyoti Structures

Neutral

17

137

3,312

3,555

9.0

9.0

4.5

6.5

3.7

2.6

0.2

0.2

5.6

7.7

0.3

0.3

KEC International

Buy

25

36

639

7,709

8,399

6.2

6.9

5.1

8.1

4.9

3.1

0.5

0.5

16.6

21.5

0.3

0.2

Thermax

Neutral

590

7,031

5,832

6,397

9.1

9.6

28.8

32.9

20.5

17.9

3.3

2.9

17.2

17.3

1.2

1.0

1,162

1,361

21,810

11,581

13,009

17.6

19.3

63.9

81.5

18.2

14.3

2.7

2.5

15.6

18.2

1.6

1.4

Cement
ACC

Buy

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
August 19, 2013

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

Cement
Ambuja Cements

Neutral

173

26,777

9,975

11,409

22.4

23.1

9.4

11.1

18.5

15.6

2.8

2.6

15.7

17.2

2.2

1.8

India Cements

Neutral

47

1,435

4,929

5,434

17.4

17.1

8.9

10.9

5.3

4.3

0.4

0.4

7.7

9.1

0.6

0.6

J K Lakshmi Cement

Buy

65

79

761

2,235

2,684

19.4

21.4

15.0

18.4

4.3

3.5

0.5

0.5

13.2

14.3

0.5

1.0

Madras Cements

Neutral

159

3,778

4,010

4,524

23.5

23.4

14.9

18.3

10.7

8.7

1.4

1.2

14.0

15.2

1.6

1.3

Shree Cement^

Neutral

3,927

13,680

6,316

7,162

26.5

25.7

294.6

340.5

13.3

11.5

2.9

2.4

24.0

22.7

1.7

1.3

UltraTech Cement

Neutral

1,683

46,135

22,021

25,274

22.0

21.6

99.5

113.3

16.9

14.9

2.6

2.3

16.7

16.6

2.1

1.9

52

60

814

1,912

2,131

21.0

21.5

5.0

5.5

10.3

9.4

0.7

0.7

8.8

7.6

1.7

1.8

120

1,715

1,824

2.4

6.2

(2.9)

(0.4)

(2.2)

(17.9)

0.3

0.3

0.5

0.5

Construction
Ashoka Buildcon

Buy

Consolidated Co

Neutral

IRB Infra

Buy

68

106

2,267

3,805

4,248

45.1

45.3

15.0

15.8

4.6

4.3

0.6

0.6

14.5

13.9

2.8

3.1

ITNL

Buy

121

156

2,355

7,423

7,970

27.5

28.7

30.3

32.0

4.0

3.8

0.6

0.5

15.0

14.0

2.4

2.5

IVRCL Infra

Neutral

11

328

5,673

5,892

7.8

7.6

(1.7)

(2.0)

(6.5)

(5.4)

0.2

0.2

0.6

0.6

Jaiprakash Asso.

Buy

30

41

6,591

12,946

14,897

24.7

25.6

1.2

2.7

24.2

11.1

0.5

0.5

2.0

4.3

2.4

2.2

Larsen & Toubro

Buy

757

1,002

70,010

68,946

78,040

10.0

10.0

49.0

55.2

15.5

13.7

2.2

2.0

14.9

15.3

1.1

1.0

Nagarjuna Const.

Buy

19

30

496

6,167

6,945

8.0

8.2

2.7

3.6

7.2

5.3

0.2

0.2

2.7

3.6

0.4

0.4

Punj Lloyd

Neutral

23

772

12,726

14,226

8.2

8.2

0.9

1.0

27.1

22.8

0.3

0.3

1.0

1.2

0.6

0.6

Sadbhav Engg.

Buy

68

99

1,028

2,462

2,731

10.6

10.6

5.3

6.0

12.9

11.3

1.1

1.0

9.2

9.6

0.7

0.7

Simplex Infra

Neutral

49

243

6,308

7,033

9.5

9.6

11.9

18.7

4.1

2.6

0.2

0.2

4.5

6.7

0.5

0.5

Unity Infra

Neutral

19

139

2,146

2,339

12.9

13.0

9.3

9.6

2.0

2.0

0.2

0.2

8.0

7.7

0.7

0.7

Allahabad Bank

Neutral

69

3,453

6,843

7,528

2.5

2.5

26.0

30.1

2.7

2.3

0.4

0.3

11.8

12.4

Andhra Bank

Neutral

56

3,136

4,868

5,390

2.4

2.5

12.3

16.6

4.6

3.4

0.4

0.4

7.9

10.0

Axis Bank

Buy

1,055

1,255

49,501

19,280

22,886

3.3

3.3

130.7

157.1

8.1

6.7

1.3

1.1

17.3

18.1

Bank of Baroda

Accumulate

479

510

20,182

15,896

17,947

2.2

2.3

95.4

124.4

5.0

3.9

0.6

0.5

12.0

14.2

Bank of India

Accumulate

163

174

9,701

14,482

16,069

2.3

2.2

55.0

62.2

3.0

2.6

0.4

0.4

13.7

13.9

Bank of Maharashtra

Neutral

39

2,586

4,529

4,780

3.0

2.8

12.3

11.8

3.2

3.3

0.5

0.4

16.5

14.1

Canara Bank

Accumulate

224

241

9,930

11,454

12,378

2.0

2.0

52.4

60.5

4.3

3.7

0.5

0.4

9.8

10.4

Central Bank

Neutral

54

5,609

8,196

9,202

2.4

2.4

6.1

15.9

8.9

3.4

0.6

0.5

5.2

12.8

Corporation Bank

Neutral

267

4,078

5,641

6,083

2.0

2.0

82.7

98.1

3.2

2.7

0.4

0.4

12.6

13.5

Dena Bank

Neutral

46

1,610

3,307

3,531

2.2

2.4

17.5

21.6

2.6

2.1

0.3

0.3

11.9

13.2

Federal Bank

Accumulate

310

331

5,296

2,798

3,250

3.0

3.0

38.1

51.9

8.1

6.0

0.8

0.7

9.8

12.3

Financials

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
August 19, 2013

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

Financials
HDFC

Accumulate

737

824

114,493

8,679

10,350

3.6

3.6

37.5

44.7

19.6

16.5

4.1

3.7

30.1

30.7

HDFC Bank

Buy

590

724

140,853

27,392

33,264

4.6

4.6

36.3

45.1

16.2

13.1

3.3

2.8

21.9

22.8

ICICI Bank

Buy

859

1,038

99,107

25,727

29,969

3.2

3.2

83.2

96.7

10.3

8.9

1.4

1.2

14.9

15.4

IDBI Bank

Accumulate

57

61

7,637

9,518

10,468

2.0

2.0

15.5

22.1

3.7

2.6

0.4

0.3

10.2

13.3

Indian Bank

Neutral

70

2,998

5,940

6,396

2.7

2.7

24.9

32.9

2.8

2.1

0.3

0.3

10.3

12.4

IOB

Accumulate

39

41

3,609

7,692

8,627

2.2

2.3

8.1

15.2

4.8

2.6

0.3

0.3

5.9

10.5

J & K Bank

Neutral

1,088

5,275

3,038

3,370

3.7

3.9

214.2

202.6

5.1

5.4

0.9

0.8

19.8

16.3

LIC Housing Finance

Neutral

170

8,562

2,180

2,732

2.4

2.5

26.3

32.1

6.4

5.3

1.2

1.0

19.0

19.9

Oriental Bank

Accumulate

130

147

3,783

6,918

7,459

2.6

2.5

46.7

52.5

2.8

2.5

0.3

0.3

10.8

11.1

Punjab Natl.Bank

Accumulate

500

546

17,675

20,766

23,515

3.4

3.4

135.0

164.8

3.7

3.0

0.6

0.5

14.4

15.7

South Ind.Bank

Neutral

20

2,728

1,800

2,023

2.7

2.7

3.7

4.2

5.5

4.9

0.9

0.8

16.2

16.2

St Bk of India

Neutral

1,571

107,475

65,392

74,467

3.0

3.0

192.5

240.5

8.2

6.5

1.1

1.0

13.1

14.7

Syndicate Bank

Accumulate

67

73

4,036

6,740

7,512

2.5

2.5

21.0

23.5

3.2

2.9

0.4

0.4

12.6

12.8

UCO Bank

Neutral

54

4,027

6,770

7,017

2.8

2.6

14.8

15.5

3.6

3.5

0.6

0.5

14.4

13.5

Union Bank

Accumulate

112

119

6,705

10,458

11,809

2.5

2.5

32.0

40.6

3.5

2.8

0.4

0.4

11.6

13.4

United Bank

Accumulate

35

37

1,295

3,386

3,884

2.3

2.5

12.4

20.0

2.8

1.7

0.3

0.3

10.0

14.7

Vijaya Bank

Neutral

36

1,794

2,718

2,941

1.8

1.9

7.0

9.0

5.2

4.0

0.4

0.4

8.2

9.8

Yes Bank

Buy

258

298

9,293

4,417

5,486

2.7

2.8

42.9

49.5

6.0

5.2

1.3

1.1

23.9

22.8

Asian Paints

Neutral

418

40,061

12,332

14,524

16.3

16.1

13.9

16.0

30.1

26.0

9.6

7.6

35.2

32.5

3.1

2.6

Britannia

Neutral

743

8,905

6,417

7,502

6.1

6.3

21.3

25.5

34.9

29.2

11.3

9.1

35.7

34.6

1.4

1.2

Colgate

Neutral

1,325

18,017

3,588

4,130

18.9

19.4

41.2

48.4

32.2

27.4

28.6

22.1

100.0

91.0

4.9

4.2

Dabur India

Neutral

170

29,650

7,183

8,297

16.8

16.9

5.4

6.3

31.8

27.0

11.2

8.9

39.2

36.7

4.2

3.6

GlaxoSmith Con*

Neutral

4,148

17,444

3,617

4,259

16.1

16.4

122.2

148.7

33.9

27.9

10.6

8.5

34.1

33.7

4.4

3.6

Godrej Consumer

Neutral

872

29,688

7,801

9,017

16.2

15.9

25.1

29.7

34.7

29.4

7.5

6.2

24.9

24.2

3.9

3.4

HUL

Neutral

599

129,428

28,415

31,962

13.6

14.1

16.7

18.2

35.9

32.9

34.5

25.0

112.2

88.1

4.4

3.9

ITC

Neutral

320

253,094

34,294

39,991

36.8

37.0

11.3

13.3

28.4

24.0

9.4

7.6

36.1

34.9

7.1

6.0

Marico

Neutral

213

13,722

5,273

6,044

14.8

14.9

7.3

8.7

29.3

24.6

5.7

4.7

21.4

21.0

2.7

2.3

Nestle*

Neutral

5,010

48,304

9,330

10,860

21.8

21.9

123.3

149.7

40.6

33.5

20.0

14.6

56.4

50.3

5.2

4.4

Tata Global

Neutral

140

8,685

8,069

8,957

9.8

9.7

7.8

8.6

18.0

16.4

2.2

2.1

9.5

9.7

1.1

0.9

FMCG

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
August 19, 2013

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

IT
HCL Tech^

Accumulate

920

1,012

64,098

30,698

33,933

22.1

21.5

65.3

69.8

14.1

13.2

3.6

2.9

26.5

23.0

1.9

1.6

Hexaware*

Neutral

121

3,617

2,213

2,479

21.5

20.5

12.1

12.9

10.0

9.4

2.5

2.1

25.4

23.5

1.5

1.3

Infosys

Reduce

2,975

2,820

170,812

47,001

51,196

26.2

26.4

171.3

189.4

17.4

15.7

3.6

3.0

20.4

19.3

3.0

2.6

Infotech Enterprises

Accumulate

178

190

1,987

2,052

2,263

17.2

17.6

20.7

22.5

8.6

7.9

1.3

1.1

14.9

14.0

0.6

0.5

KPIT Cummins

Neutral

139

2,688

2,670

3,018

17.3

16.7

14.1

15.3

9.8

9.1

1.9

1.5

20.9

18.4

1.0

0.8

Mindtree

Accumulate

993

1,050

4,129

2,768

3,006

19.7

19.9

103.1

105.3

9.6

9.4

2.3

1.9

24.8

20.3

1.2

1.0

Mphasis&

Neutral

393

8,257

6,372

6,852

18.0

18.2

38.0

43.5

10.3

9.0

1.5

1.3

14.3

14.2

0.8

0.6

NIIT

Sell

19

15

310

1,144

1,267

9.0

9.1

4.3

5.4

4.4

3.5

0.5

0.4

10.3

12.0

0.1

Persistent

Neutral

542

2,168

1,533

1,715

22.2

22.5

49.2

56.8

11.0

9.6

1.8

1.5

16.4

16.1

1.0

0.8

TCS

Buy

1,780

2,060

348,424

79,005

91,576

29.7

30.0

88.6

103.1

20.1

17.3

6.3

5.1

31.5

29.2

4.2

3.5

Tech Mahindra

Neutral

1,324

30,765

8,102

8,709

19.7

19.2

107.5

117.0

12.3

11.3

2.6

2.1

21.2

18.9

3.8

3.5

Wipro

Neutral

456

112,441

42,196

45,890

21.0

21.6

28.3

31.2

16.1

14.6

3.4

2.9

20.7

19.4

2.2

1.9

D B Corp

Buy

244

302

4,470

1,783

1,968

25.2

26.8

14.6

17.2

16.8

14.1

4.3

3.7

23.9

24.2

2.4

2.1

HT Media

Buy

95

117

2,236

2,205

2,380

15.1

15.6

8.3

9.3

11.5

10.3

1.4

1.3

11.6

11.6

0.7

0.5

Jagran Prakashan

Buy

87

116

2,889

1,683

1,845

22.3

23.7

6.5

7.8

13.3

11.2

2.7

2.5

21.3

23.1

1.8

1.6

PVR

Neutral

364

1,446

1,359

1,540

17.3

17.4

17.2

21.6

21.1

16.9

2.1

1.9

10.3

12.0

1.5

1.3

Sun TV Network

Neutral

385

15,188

2,287

2,551

69.7

70.5

20.0

23.3

19.3

16.5

4.8

4.2

26.4

27.3

6.3

5.5

Bhushan Steel

Neutral

450

10,184

13,794

17,088

30.9

33.5

49.3

66.6

9.1

6.8

1.0

0.9

11.3

13.5

2.4

1.9

Coal India

Neutral

258

163,183

70,158

74,443

29.8

30.2

25.2

27.1

10.3

9.5

2.5

2.2

33.3

33.1

1.5

1.4

Electrosteel Castings

Buy

11

13

359

1,976

2,017

11.8

12.7

1.3

2.6

8.7

4.2

0.1

2.6

5.2

0.5

0.1

GMDC

Buy

88

115

2,790

1,701

1,985

47.8

48.8

17.4

20.6

5.1

4.3

1.0

0.8

20.7

20.9

1.2

0.8

Hind. Zinc

Buy

101

120

42,824

12,389

13,093

48.5

51.7

15.2

17.0

6.7

6.0

1.2

1.0

18.5

18.0

1.3

0.8

Hindalco

Neutral

93

17,863

95,465

99,226

8.4

8.8

13.9

15.8

6.7

5.9

0.5

0.5

7.6

8.0

0.6

0.5

JSW Steel

Neutral

487

11,775

44,605

47,040

15.7

16.0

62.5

75.6

7.8

6.5

0.6

0.6

8.5

9.6

0.8

0.7

MOIL

Accumulate

198

223

3,325

956

982

42.3

44.3

25.3

26.2

7.8

7.6

1.1

1.0

14.6

13.7

0.8

0.9

Monnet Ispat

Buy

102

125

652

2,326

2,709

21.4

23.1

33.3

43.1

3.1

2.4

0.2

0.2

8.3

9.9

1.3

1.0

Nalco

Neutral

NMDC

Accumulate

SAIL

Neutral

Media

Metals & Mining

www.angelbroking.com

26

6,727

7,656

7,988

13.1

13.5

2.6

2.6

10.2

10.0

0.6

0.5

5.5

5.5

0.3

0.3

110

123

43,414

10,718

11,514

66.6

64.5

15.5

16.1

7.1

6.8

1.4

1.3

21.2

20.0

2.0

1.8

41

16,913

44,060

54,227

9.2

10.9

5.3

6.8

7.7

6.0

0.4

0.4

5.2

6.5

0.6

0.6

Market Outlook
August 19, 2013

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

Sales ( cr )
FY14E

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

Metals & Mining


Sesa Goa

Buy

131

155

11,350

3,817

5,781

12.1

17.7

27.0

29.6

4.8

4.4

0.6

0.5

12.9

12.5

3.8

2.5

Sterlite Inds

Buy

76

92

25,491

44,493

45,599

22.4

23.9

16.8

19.2

4.5

4.0

0.5

0.4

10.5

10.9

0.5

0.5

Tata Steel

Buy

235

313

22,833 150,121 160,679

10.1

10.8

38.2

52.6

6.2

4.5

0.6

0.5

10.4

12.9

0.5

0.4

Sarda

Buy

82

98

294

1,323

1,398

17.2

17.9

25.3

27.8

3.2

3.0

0.3

0.3

9.5

9.6

0.6

0.5

Prakash Industries
Godawari Power and
Ispat
Oil & Gas

Buy

30

37

403

2,486

2,637

15.2

15.0

13.7

14.2

2.2

2.1

0.2

0.2

9.1

8.7

0.4

0.3

Accumulate

69

78

226

2,171

2,317

14.9

15.8

36.4

46.6

1.9

1.5

0.2

0.2

11.6

13.0

0.5

0.4

Cairn India

Buy

301

364

57,495

18,403

17,925

71.9

62.1

62.1

57.4

4.8

5.2

1.0

0.9

22.6

17.8

1.9

1.7

GAIL

Neutral

298

37,832

49,700

48,822

16.0

16.6

32.9

33.4

9.1

8.9

1.4

1.2

15.9

14.4

0.3

0.2

ONGC

Buy

272

352

232,624 169,963 196,050

35.3

36.6

33.4

38.7

8.1

7.0

1.4

1.2

17.7

18.2

1.1

0.8

Reliance Industries

Neutral

825

266,486 397,546 421,695

8.9

8.7

72.3

76.8

11.4

10.7

1.2

1.1

12.3

11.8

0.7

0.6

Gujarat Gas*

Neutral

209

2,682

3,270

3,414

12.8

12.6

22.6

23.1

9.2

9.1

2.5

2.2

28.2

25.6

0.7

0.6

Indraprastha Gas

Neutral

261

3,658

3,656

4,456

21.5

18.6

25.7

26.8

10.2

9.7

2.1

1.8

22.1

19.6

1.0

0.8

Petronet LNG
Gujarat State Petronet
Ltd.
Pharmaceuticals

Accumulate

124

135

9,281

39,449

43,315

5.3

5.9

14.1

16.9

8.8

7.3

1.8

1.5

21.7

21.9

0.3

0.3

54

67

3,039

1,002

1,021

91.4

91.5

8.2

8.4

6.6

6.5

0.9

0.8

14.3

13.0

2.5

2.4

Alembic Pharma

Accumulate

146

165

2,749

1,736

2,008

17.1

18.9

10.7

13.9

13.6

10.5

4.3

3.2

35.0

34.7

1.6

1.4

Aurobindo Pharma

Buy

186

279

5,418

6,641

7,637

15.9

15.9

17.3

20.6

10.8

9.0

1.7

1.4

19.5

18.9

1.3

1.1

Aventis*

Neutral

2,402

5,532

1,682

1,917

15.6

15.6

91.9

101.7

26.1

23.6

3.7

3.7

15.6

17.1

2.8

2.3

Cadila Healthcare

Buy

662

894

13,564

7,123

8,367

15.5

15.7

37.3

44.7

17.8

14.8

3.7

3.1

22.9

22.9

2.2

1.9

Cipla

Buy

414

477

33,265

9,274

10,796

23.1

23.1

21.0

23.8

19.7

17.4

3.2

2.7

17.2

16.8

3.3

2.8

Dr Reddy's

Buy

2,167

2,535

36,836

13,377

15,350

20.4

20.1

112.1

126.6

19.3

17.1

4.1

3.4

23.5

21.8

2.8

2.5

Dishman Pharma

Buy

48

73

387

1,394

1,534

22.5

22.4

14.8

16.6

3.2

2.9

0.3

0.3

10.8

11.0

0.9

0.8

GSK Pharma*

Neutral

2,256

19,109

2,744

2,964

22.0

23.4

59.2

66.6

38.1

33.9

9.5

9.1

24.9

27.5

6.1

5.6

Indoco Remedies

Buy

63

78

580

747

906

15.3

15.3

5.9

7.6

10.7

8.3

1.3

1.1

12.5

14.4

1.0

0.8

Ipca labs

Neutral

660

8,329

3,246

3,830

20.5

21.7

36.2

44.9

18.2

14.7

4.3

3.4

26.1

25.7

2.7

2.3

Lupin

Accumulate

815

904

36,497

11,576

13,855

22.0

22.0

35.8

43.0

22.8

19.0

5.5

4.4

27.1

25.8

3.2

2.7

Ranbaxy*

Accumulate

379

426

16,054

10,400

11,331

6.6

8.4

11.4

15.2

33.3

25.0

3.5

3.1

11.1

13.1

1.6

1.5

Sun Pharma

Neutral

542

112,254

13,509

15,846

41.0

41.0

16.5

19.9

32.9

27.2

6.6

5.5

22.0

22.0

7.7

6.4

Buy

Power
GIPCL

Accumulate

NTPC

Buy

www.angelbroking.com

57

65

861

1,444

1,482

33.4

33.0

13.7

14.8

4.2

3.8

0.5

0.4

12.3

12.0

0.7

0.4

140

163

115,107

75,046

81,780

23.5

23.9

12.7

13.6

11.0

10.3

1.3

1.2

12.2

12.0

2.2

2.2

Market Outlook
August 19, 2013

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

EV/Sales(x)

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

Real Estate
DLF

Buy

146

175

25,915

8,293

9,622

36.5

36.1

5.7

6.7

25.5

21.6

0.9

0.9

3.7

4.1

5.2

4.3

MLIFE

Accumulate

437

483

1,786

888

1,002

27.0

29.9

33.9

42.1

12.9

10.4

1.3

1.2

9.9

11.2

2.6

2.3

Bharti Airtel

Neutral

336

134,253

83,535

92,173

32.0

33.1

9.2

12.9

36.6

26.0

2.4

2.2

6.8

8.9

2.3

2.0

Idea Cellular

Neutral

172

56,988

25,640

28,459

26.9

27.2

4.0

4.9

42.9

34.8

3.6

3.3

8.4

9.4

2.6

2.3

Rcom

Neutral

119

24,510

22,751

24,628

30.9

31.3

3.4

5.3

34.6

22.6

0.7

0.7

2.1

3.1

2.7

2.3

Telecom

Others
Abbott India*

Buy

1,362

1,628

2,893

1,788

1,996

12.5

12.7

71.7

81.4

19.0

16.7

3.8

3.3

21.7

21.2

1.4

1.2

Bajaj Electricals

Buy

160

184

1,592

3,885

4,472

4.0

5.8

6.8

15.4

23.6

10.4

2.1

1.8

8.8

17.3

0.4

0.4

Cera Sanitaryware

Buy

505

613

639

631

797

14.5

13.7

42.6

51.1

11.9

9.9

2.8

2.3

26.5

25.3

1.0

0.8

Cravatex

Buy

258

307

67

248

284

6.5

7.3

27.2

38.2

9.5

6.8

1.5

1.3

15.7

18.5

0.4

0.4

Finolex Cables

Buy

55

68

835

2,563

2,899

9.8

9.8

10.1

11.3

5.4

4.8

0.8

0.7

14.3

13.8

0.2

0.2

Force Motors

Buy

287

349

374

2,304

2,649

3.1

3.6

28.0

43.7

10.3

6.6

0.3

0.3

3.1

4.7

0.1

0.1

Goodyear India*

Accumulate

317

345

730

1,458

1,542

8.3

9.0

32.3

37.0

9.8

8.6

1.8

1.5

19.5

19.3

0.3

0.3

Hitachi

Buy

105

153

286

1,080

1,199

8.9

9.1

18.3

19.1

5.8

5.5

1.0

0.9

19.2

17.0

0.4

0.3

Honeywell Automation* Neutral

2,325

2,056

1,842

2,131

7.7

7.8

111.1

130.9

20.9

17.8

2.6

2.3

13.3

13.9

1.0

0.9

IFB Agro

Accumulate

140

156

126

491

642

12.3

13.8

35.0

50.9

4.0

2.8

0.7

0.5

18.2

21.6

0.2

0.1

ITD Cementation

Buy

160

194

184

1,365

1,502

10.9

11.2

18.2

28.0

8.8

5.7

0.4

0.4

5.1

7.4

0.6

0.5

Jyothy Laboratories

Buy

164

199

2,725

1,244

1,523

14.1

14.2

5.9

10.0

27.7

16.5

3.3

2.9

12.7

18.8

2.5

2.0

MRF

Buy

13,417

16,218

5,690

11,799

12,587

14.1

13.5 1,792.0 1,802.0

7.5

7.5

1.6

1.3

23.5

19.2

0.6

0.6

Page Industries

Accumulate

4,366

4,669

4,870

1,059

1,296

19.5

19.8

125.0

155.6

34.9

28.1

17.3

12.7

56.3

52.2

4.7

3.8

Relaxo Footwears

Buy

752

981

902

1,196

1,401

11.9

12.6

55.6

75.4

13.5

10.0

3.2

2.5

27.1

28.1

0.9

0.7

Siyaram Silk Mills

Accumulate

201

228

189

1,158

1,322

10.6

11.0

60.5

75.9

3.3

2.7

0.5

0.4

16.8

18.1

0.4

0.3

Styrolution ABS India*

Buy

350

492

616

1,007

1,108

8.4

8.7

30.3

35.1

11.6

10.0

1.3

1.2

11.7

12.2

0.6

0.5

TAJ GVK

Buy

57

108

354

300

319

35.8

36.2

7.9

9.1

7.2

6.2

1.0

0.9

13.9

14.4

1.5

1.3

Tata Sponge Iron

Buy

253

371

389

814

849

17.0

17.6

64.6

69.2

3.9

3.7

0.5

0.5

14.5

13.8

0.1

(0.1)

TTK Healthcare

Buy

512

632

397

416

481

4.5

6.1

16.2

25.3

31.6

20.2

3.9

3.4

12.6

18.1

0.8

0.7

Tree House

Accumulate

260

297

935

153

194

53.0

52.8

12.4

15.6

21.0

16.6

2.5

2.2

11.8

13.1

6.3

4.8

TVS Srichakra

Buy

United Spirits

Neutral

Vesuvius India*

Buy

www.angelbroking.com

165

230

126

1,591

1,720

6.1

6.4

30.5

38.3

5.4

4.3

0.7

0.6

13.5

15.5

0.3

0.2

2,229

32,394

12,294

14,162

12.0

12.0

42.1

67.7

53.0

32.9

3.7

3.4

9.1

10.7

3.0

2.6

354

439

718

600

638

20.1

19.4

35.7

36.6

9.9

9.7

1.8

1.5

19.4

17.1

1.0

0.9

Market Outlook
August 19, 2013

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

85

117

564

2,042

2,363

14.6

14.8

12.3

16.5

7.0

5.2

0.5

0.5

7.6

9.4

0.7

0.6

Others
HSIL

Buy

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on August 16, 2013

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
August 19, 2013

Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800

E-mail: research@angelbroking.com

Website: www.angelbroking.com

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