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DAILY IFOREX REPORT

19TH AUG 2013

HEADLINES
Forex: Dow Threatens Collapse, But Will The Dollar Be So Lucky? Currency Markets Brace for Impact as Taper Speculation Heats Up

Why the Dollar Will Surge if the Dows Slide Accelerates Its a relationship that has many FX traders scratching their heads. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has marked a painfully-obvious technical breakdown, and yet the renowned safe haven US dollar is still threatening to collapse into plunge itself. Yet, dont position for AUDUSD and GBPUSD rallies just yet...

TRADING TIPS
SELL EURUSD BELOW 1.3310 TGT 1.3290/1.3260 SL 1.3340

Euro Fails to Gain Despite Improved GDP Will PMIs Revive Optimism? The Euro continues to enjoy a swell of better than expected economic data, yet signs of a nascent recovery across the worlds largest single market have yet to fuel an uptick in the currency. Is the lack of a bullish response by the Euro concerning? We think so.

Yen to Face Growth Concerns Will the BoJ Halt the Bullish Trend? The Japanese Yen slipped this past week as concerns over Abenomics and tax policy heated up as the worlds third-largest countrys debt level jumped past 1 quadrillion (roughly $10.3 trillion). Will a new sales tax hurt the Japanese recovery, and if so, what does that mean for the Yen?

BUY USDJPY ABOVE 97.80 TGT 98.00/98.30 SL 97.50

Australian Dollar Rebound Threatened Amid Fed Policy Speculation The Australian Dollar still looks primed to correct higher but the move may be thrown off-course as speculation about the direction of Fed policy heats up.

BUY GBPUSD ABOVE


1.5640 TGT 1.5660/1.5680 SL 1.5610

Gold Surpasses July High as Stocks Retreat Whats Next? Gold surged on Thursday amid a mini-US Dollar crash. With concerns over the Feds QE3 taper at an inflection point, we find that Gold might consolidate after such a strong short-term reversal.

HOURLY EURUSD CHART HOURLY EURUSD CHART

ANALYSIS EURUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.0003(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI => 49(BEARISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY USDJPY CHART

ANALYSIS USDJPY LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.10(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>48(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

ANALYSIS GBPUSD LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.0004(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>51(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY EURGBP CHART

ANALYSIS EURGBP LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.0004(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI =>41(BEARISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY USD INDEX CHART

ANALYSIS USD INDEX LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.0001(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>49(BULLISH SIGNAL)

ECONOMIC CALLENDER
Date
Sun Aug 4

Time

Currency

Event

Importance

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Notes

23:30

AiG Performance of Services Index AUD TD Securities Inflation (YoY) (JUL) AUD TD Securities Inflation (MoM) (JUL) NZD ANZ Commodity Price (JUL) AUD Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (JUN) AUD Retail Sales Ex Inflation(QoQ) (2Q) CNY HSBC/Markit Services PMI (JUL) CHF UBS Real Estate Bubble Index (2Q) EUR Italian Purchasing Manager Index Services (JUL) EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Services (JUL F) EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Services (JUL F) EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Composite (JUL F) EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Services (JUL F) EUR Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence (AUG) GBP Purchasing Manager Index Services (JUL) GBP Official Reserves (Changes) (JUL) EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) (JUN) EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) (JUN) USD ISM NonManufacturing Composite (JUL) USD Fed's Fisher Speaks on the Economy in Oregon USD EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

Medium

39.4

41.5

Mon Aug 5

00:30

Medium

2.7%

2.4%

00:30

Low

0.5%

0.0%

01:00

Low

0.6%

-3.7%

01:30

Medium

0.0%

0.4%

0.2%

01:30

Low

0.0%

-0.1%

2.0%

01:45

Medium

51.3

51.3

06:00

Medium

1.20

1.17

07:45

Low

48.7

46.5

45.8

07:50

Low

48.6

48.3

48.3

07:55

Medium

51.3

52.5

52.5

08:00

Medium

50.5

50.4

50.4

08:00

Medium

49.8

49.6

49.6

08:30

Medium

-4.9

-10.0

-12.6

08:30

Medium

60.2

57.4

56.9

08:30

Low

$1672M

-$1871M

09:00

Medium

-0.9%

-1.3%

0.3%

09:00

Low

-0.5%

-0.7%

1.1%

14:00

Medium

56.0

53.1

52.2

15:45

Low

21:00

Low

22:00

NZD ANZ Truckometer Heavy (MoM) (JUL) GBP BRC Sales LikeFor-Like (YoY) (JUL) AUD Trade Balance (Australian dollar) (JUN) AUD ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (JUL) AUD House Price Index (QoQ) (2Q) AUD House Price Index (YoY) (2Q) AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision (AUG 6) JPY Coincident Index (JUN P) JPY Leading Index (JUN P) GBP Halifax House Price (3MoY) (JUL) GBP Halifax Plc House Prices s.a. (MoM) (JUL) GBP New Car Registrations (YoY) (JUL) GBP Industrial Production (YoY) (JUN) GBP Manufacturing Production (YoY) (JUN) GBP Industrial Production (MoM) (JUN) GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) (JUN) EUR Italian Gross Domestic Product s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (2Q P) EUR Italian Gross Domestic Product s.a. and w.d.a. (QoQ) (2Q P) EUR German Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (JUN) EUR German Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) (JUN) USD Trade Balance (JUN) CAD International Merchandise Trade (Canadian dollar) (JUN) GBP NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate (JUL) USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (AUG)

Low

9.6%

-7.8%

23:01

Low

2.2%

2.0%

1.4%

Tue Aug 6

01:30

Medium

602M

804M

507M

01:30

Low

-1.1%

-1.6%

01:30

Low

2.4%

1.0%

0.8%

01:30

Low

5.1%

3.0%

3.3%

04:30
LIVE

High

2.50%

2.50%

2.75%

05:00

Medium

105.2

105.1

106.0

05:00

Medium

107.0

107.3

110.7

07:00

Low

4.6%

4.3%

3.7%

07:00

Low

0.9%

0.5%

0.7%

08:02

Low

12.7%

13.4%

08:30

Medium

1.2%

0.8%

-2.3%

08:30

Medium

2.0%

1.0%

-2.9%

08:30

Low

1.1%

0.7%

0.0%

08:30

Low

1.9%

1.0%

-0.7%

09:00
LIVE

Medium

-2.0%

-2.2%

-2.4%

09:00
LIVE

Low

-0.2%

-0.4%

-0.6%

10:00

Medium

4.3%

0.3%

-2.0%

10:00

Low

3.8%

1.0%

-0.5%

12:30

Medium

-$43.5B

-$45.0B

12:30

Low

-0.51B

-0.30B

14:00

High

0.6%

14:00

Low

47.5

47.1

14:00

USD JOLTs Job Openings (JUN) USD Fed's Evans speaks to reporters in Chicago NZD Unemployment Rate (2Q) NZD Employment Change (YoY) (2Q) NZD Average Hourly Earnings (QoQ) (2Q) NZD Employment Change (QoQ) (2Q) NZD Private Wages inc Overtime (QoQ) (2Q) NZD Participation Rate (QoQ) (2Q) NZD Private Wages ex Overtime (QoQ) (2Q) AUD AiG Performance of Construction Index (JUL) JPY Official Reserve Assets (JUL) AUD Home Loans (JUN) AUD Value of Loans (MoM) (JUN) AUD Investment Lending (JUN) CHF SECO Consumer Confidence (JUL) CHF Foreign Currency Reserves (JUL) CHF CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) (JUL) CHF Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUL) CHF CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) (JUL) CHF Consumer Price Index (MoM) (JUL) GBP Lloyds Employment Confidence (JUL) GBP Bank of England Inflation Report EUR German Industrial Production n.s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (JUN) EUR German Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (JUN)

Low

3895

3828

17:00

Low

22:45

High

6.3%

6.2%

22:45

Medium

0.7%

0.3%

22:45

Low

0.6%

1.0%

22:45

Low

0.3%

1.7%

22:45

Low

0.5%

0.3%

22:45

Low

67.9%

67.8%

22:45

Low

0.5%

0.4%

23:30

Medium

39.5

23:50

Low

$1238.7B

Wed Aug 7

01:30

Medium

2.0%

1.8%

01:30

Medium

2.3%

01:30

Low

1.5%

05:45

Medium

-1

-5

07:00

Low

431.0B

434.8B

07:15

Medium

0.2%

07:15

Medium

-0.1%

-0.1%

07:15

Low

0.2%

07:15

Low

-0.4%

0.1%

08:30

Low

-33

09:30
LIVE

High

10:00

Medium

-0.3%

-1.0%

10:00

Low

0.3%

-1.0%

11:00

USD MBA Mortgage Applications (AUG 2) CAD Building Permits (MoM) (JUN) CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a. (JUL) USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (AUG 2) USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (AUG 2) USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (AUG 2) USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (AUG 2) USD Fed's Plosser Speaks on Economy in Washington USD Fed's Pianalto Speaks on Monetary Policy in Cleveland USD Consumer Credit (JUN) JPY Bank Lending incl Trusts (YoY) (JUL) JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (AUG 2) JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (AUG 2) JPY Trade Balance BOP Basis (Yen) (JUN) JPY Adjusted Current Account Total (Yen) (JUN) JPY Bank Lending Banks ex-Trust (JUL) JPY BoP Current Account Balance (YoY) (JUN) JPY Current Account Total (Yen) (JUN) JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (AUG 2) JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (AUG 2) JPY Housing Loans (YoY) (2Q) JPY Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Statement JPY Bank of Japan Rate Decision (AUG 8) CNY Trade Balance (JUL)

Low

-3.7%

12:30

Medium

-1.2%

4.5%

14:00

Medium

56.0

55.3

14:30

Low

-1904K

14:30

Low

431K

14:30

Low

-466K

14:30

Low

770K

16:30

Low

17:40

Low

19:00

Medium

$15.000B

$19.615B

23:50

Medium

1.9%

1.9%

23:50

Medium

233.2B

23:50

Medium

-154.9B

23:50

Medium

-128.7B

-906.7B

23:50

Low

727.3B

623.3B

23:50

Low

2.2%

23:50

Low

-3.5%

58.1%

23:50

Low

396.5B

540.7B

23:50

Low

-430.3B

23:50

Low

-61.8B

23:50

Low

3.2%

Thu Aug 8

High

High

Medium

$25.90B

$27.12B

JPY BOJ 2014 Monetary Base Target (AUG 8) USD MBA Mortgage Foreclosures (2Q) USD Mortgage Delinquencies (2Q) CNY Exports (YoY) (JUL) CNY Imports (YoY) (JUL) NZD QV House Prices (YoY) (JUL) AUD Employment Change (JUL) AUD Unemployment Rate (JUL) AUD Full Time Employment Change (JUL) AUD Part Time Employment Change (JUL) AUD Participation Rate (JUL) JPY Tokyo Avg Office Vacancies (JUL) JPY Bankruptcies (YoY) (JUL) JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (JUL) JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Current (JUL) CHF Unemployment Rate (JUL) CHF Unemployment Rate s.a. (JUL) EUR German Trade Balance (euros) (JUN) EUR German Current Account (euros) (JUN) EUR German Exports s.a. (MoM) (JUN) EUR German Imports s.a. (MoM) (JUN) AUD Foreign Reserves (Australian dollar) (JUL) EUR ECB Publishes Monthly Report CAD New Housing Price Index (YoY) (JUN)

Medium

270T

Low

3.6%

Low

7.3%

Low

1.5%

-3.1%

Low

1.0%

-0.7%

00:00

Low

7.6%

01:30

High

6.0K

10.3K

01:30

High

5.8%

5.7%

01:30

Medium

-4.4K

01:30

Low

14.8K

01:30

Low

65.3%

65.3%

02:00

Low

8.46

04:30

Medium

-8.0%

05:00

Medium

54.1

53.6

05:00

Low

53.5

53

05:45

Medium

2.9%

2.9%

05:45

Medium

3.2%

3.2%

06:00

Medium

15.0B

13.1B

06:00

Low

17.0B

11.2B

06:00

Low

1.0%

-2.4%

06:00

Low

0.0%

1.7%

06:30

Low

A$51.9B

08:00

High

12:30

Medium

1.8%

12:30

USD Initial Jobless Claims (AUG 3) CAD New Housing Price Index (MoM) (JUN) USD Continuing Claims (JUL 27) USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (AUG 2) NZD NZ Card Spending (MoM) (JUL) NZD Card Spending Retail (MoM) (JUL) JPY Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (JUN) JPY Japan Money Stock M2+CD (YoY) (JUL) JPY Japan Money Stock M3 (YoY) (JUL) CNY Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUL) CNY Producer Price Index (YoY) (JUL) JPY Bank of Japan's Monthly Economic Report for August JPY Consumer Confidence Index (JUL) CNY Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD (YoY) (JUL) CNY Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (JUL) CNY Industrial Production (YoY) (JUL) CNY Retail Sales YTD (YoY) (JUL) CNY Retail Sales (YoY) (JUL) GBP Total Trade Balance (Pounds) (JUN) GBP Construction Output s.a. (MoM) (JUN) GBP Construction Output s.a. (YoY) (JUN) GBP Trade Balance Non EU (Pounds) (JUN) GBP Visible Trade Balance (Pounds) (JUN) CAD Housing Starts (JUL)

Medium

335K

326K

12:30

Low

0.1%

12:30

Low

2951K

14:30

Low

59

22:45

Medium

1.2%

22:45

Low

0.4%

1.1%

23:50

Medium

-0.4%

1.2%

23:50

Low

3.8%

3.8%

23:50

Low

3.1%

3.0%

Fri Aug 9

01:30

High

2.8%

2.7%

01:30

Medium

-2.1%

-2.7%

05:00

Medium

05:00

Medium

45.0

44.3

05:30

Medium

20.0%

20.1%

05:30

Medium

9.3%

05:30

Medium

8.8%

8.9%

05:30

Medium

12.7%

05:30

Medium

13.4%

13.3%

08:30

Medium

-2350

-2435

08:30

Low

0.0%

08:30

Low

-4.8%

08:30

Low

-4093

08:30

Low

-8500

-8491

12:15

Medium

191.0K

199.6K

12:30

CAD Net Change in Employment (JUL) CAD Unemployment Rate (JUL) CAD Full Time Employment Change (JUL) CAD Part Time Employment Change (JUL) CAD Participation Rate (JUL) USD Wholesale Inventories (JUN) USD Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) (JUN)

High

6.0K

-0.4K

12:30

High

7.1%

7.1%

12:30

Medium

-32.4

12:30

Low

32.2

12:30

Low

66.7

14:00

Medium

0.4%

-0.5%

14:00

Low

0.7%

1.6%

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