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4th RS Platou Shipping and Offshore Conference, Singapore

Offshore Supply Vessel Market


7th of December 2012

AGENDA

Current market status


Structural drivers: deepwater, age, well complexity Cyclical drivers: reserves on stream, rig activity

Supply: new orders, orderbook, delays, scrapping, fleet growth


Summary

RS Platou Economic Research RS Platou Offshore Research

PSV term-rates have lately shown some weakness


Medium sized PSV Large PSV

35

35

50 45 40 35 30

50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5

30
25

30
25 20

USD '000

15
10 5

15
10 5

USD '000

20

25 20 15 10 5

0
02 03 04 05 06 North Sea 07 08 09 10 Brazil 11 12 West Africa

0
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Brazil 10 11 12 North Sea

Average Term-rates USD DAY North Sea W Africa Brazil 2011YTD 20,060 20,400 25,900 2012YTD 20,983 25,600 29,500 % 5 25 14

Average Term-rates 000/DAY North Sea 2011YTD 28,402 2012YTD 27663 % -3

Brazil

31,700

34,450

RS Platou Economic Research RS Platou Offshore Research Oslo

AHTS term rates also showing some weakness, but up in Asia


Small/Medium sized AHTS Large AHTS

40 35 30 25

40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5

70 60 50

70 60 50 40

USD 000

20 15 10 5

USD 000

40

30
20 10

30
20 10

0
02 03 04 05 06 07 North Sea 8-10,000 bhp Brazil 12,000 bhp
Average Term-rates 000/DAY North Sea W Africa 2011YTD 15,538 18,160 2012YTD 15,688 19,675 % 1 8

08 09 10 11 12 West Africa 12,000 bhp SE Asia 12,000 bhp

0
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 North Sea 16,000 bhp West Africa 16,000 bhp

Brazil 18,000 bhp

Average Term-rates| 000/DAY North Sea W Africa Brazil 2011YTD 32,248 25,550 44,200 2012YTD 39,524 29,550 48,250 % 23 16 9

Brazil
SE Asia

29,650
15,525

33,150
18,725

12
21

RS Platou Economic Research RS Platou Offshore Research Oslo

The North Sea OSV market has come off significantly in 2012
AHTS: Supply, demand and utilisation PSV: Supply, demand and utilisation

100 90 80 70 60

150 140 130 120

250

150 140

200 130 150 120 110 100 100 90 50 80 0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 (E) Demand Supply Utilisation 70

Vessels

50 40 30 20 10 0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 (E) Demand Supply Utilisation 100

Utilisation Rate

80 70 60

Source: RS Platou Offshore Research

RS Platou Economic Research RS Platou Offshore Research Oslo

Utilisation Rate

90

Vessels

110

OSV fleet growth by region (size of fleet in brackets)


2012/2011 ,3 months moving average

AHTS

PSV

25% 20%

25% 20%

(135) (224) (18) (1117) (182) (118) (333) (60)

(18)

15%
Fleet Growth
10% 5%

(76) (671)

(211) (134) (1814) (158) (110)

(265)
Fleet Growth

15%
10% 5%

0%
-5% -10%

(102)

(59)

(21)
0%
-5% -10%

-15%

-15%

Source: RS Platou Offshore Research

RS Platou Economic Research RS Platou Offshore Research Oslo

55% of oil and gas offshore discoveries in deep-water (07-11)!


Shallow water ex Middle East
14 12
10

Shallow water Middle East


14 12
10

bnTOE

bnTOE

8 6

8 6

4 2
0 82-86 87-91 92-96 97-01 02-06 07-11

4 2
0 82-86 87-91 92-96 97-01 02-06 07-11

Mid-water (400-3000ft)
14 12
10

Deep-water (>3000ft)
14 12
10

bnTOE

bnTOE

8 6

8 6

4 2
0 82-86 87-91 92-96 97-01 02-06 07-11

4 2
0 82-86 87-91 92-96 97-01 02-06 07-11

Source: Infield

RS Platou Economic Research RS Platou Offshore Research Oslo

Deepwater fields are fast-tracked, leading to more SS development drilling


Time from discovery to onstream Subsea vs surface wells
Operational surface wells Operational subsea wells 4500 4000
Operational surface wells

20

20

45000 40000

16

16
Operatinal surface wells

35000 30000 25000 20000 15000

3500 3000 2500 2000 1500


Operational subsea wells

12
Years

12

Operational subsea wells

10000 5000

1000 500 0
1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

0
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

0 SW MW DW

Fields >50mboe and ex-Middle East

Source: Infield

RS Platou Economic Research RS Platou Offshore Research Oslo

Fixing activity increasing, even without Petrobras


Floater fixing activity (incl. November 2012)
100%

Market share by floater type* (fixing activity)

800 700 600


Rig years

90%

80% 70%

Market share

500 400 300 200 100 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 MW DW UDW Petrobras*


Petrobras* newbuilds only and not annualized

60% 50%
40%

12/11 +104% -22% -1%

30% 20% 10% 0% 98 99 00 01 02 03 UDW 04 DW 05 06 MW 07 08 09 10 11 12

*Petrobras newbuilds not included

RS Platou Economic Research RS Platou Offshore Research Oslo

UDW units crowding out other floaters


Brazil West Africa

80 70 60 50

40

30

Floaters

40 30 20 10 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 MW DW UDW

Floaters

20

10

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 MW DW UDW

Source: RS Platou Offshore Research

RS Platou Economic Research RS Platou Offshore Research Oslo

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Tendency towards longer duration wells


Jackups on contract and shallow water wells drilled Deepwater (>3000ft): Average well days by basin

4000 3500 3000

400 350 300

2500

250
200 150 Wells <400ft Jackups on contract 100 50 0 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

2000 1500 1000 500 0

Sao Paulo Plateau Sub- (pre salt) Santos Basin Sergipe Sub-basin Espirito Santo Salt Sub- East Campos Sub-basin Sigsbee Sub-basin Tano Basin Cote d'Ivoire Basin Niger Delta Lower Congo Basin Senegal Basin Nile Delta Basin KG Deep Water Sub- Ravva Sub-basin Baram Delta Exmouth Plateau Kutei Basin Average Other 20 40 60 80 Well days 100 120

Brazil USA

Jackups on contract

Wells

W Africa

India Pacific

140

160

Source: IHS, World Oil, BOEMRE and RS Platou Offshore Research

RS Platou Economic Research RS Platou Offshore Research Oslo

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E&P spending expected to continue to rise


Oil revenues and oil service companies order intake* E&P spending and oil service cos revenues

12 10
Oil Revenues (USD bn/day)

45
Oil Service Co's Revenues (USD bn)

350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0


Order Intake (USD bn/quarter)
+14.6% +15.3% +7.3% -13.0%

+10.0% +9.3%

700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0


E&P Spending (USD bn)

40 35 8 6 20 4 2 5 0 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Order Intake 10 11 12 0 15 10 30 25

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12E 13E 14E Offshore Drilling Subsea Multi-Service Other Equipment and Services E&P (Estimated)

Oil Revenues

*Only oil service companies reporting order intake

Source: Reuters, RS Platou

RS Platou Economic Research RS Platou Offshore Research Oslo

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Offshore development activity increasing (reserves under development)


Shallow water Midwater+

12 10

118%
bnTOE

8 6 4 2 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 3000+ 2011 2012 Sep-12

41%

400-2999

Source: Infield

RS Platou Economic Research RS Platou Offshore Research Oslo

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Active MODU utilisations elevated


Jackups Floaters

100% 95% 90%

100% 95%

100% 95%

100% 95% 90% UDW DW 85% 80% 75% 70%

90% 85% 80% 75% IC blt >=1998 70% 65%


70%

Active utilisation

85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Active utilisation

90% 85% 80% 75%

MW

IC blt <1998

60%

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Source: RS Platou Offshore Research

RS Platou Economic Research RS Platou Offshore Research Oslo

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Supply, demand and utilisation: MODUs


Jackups Floaters

550 500 450 400


Total supply

150% 140% 130% 120%


Floaters

350

170 % 160 %

300 150 % 250 Total supply


Active supply

140 % 130 % 120 % 110 %


Demand 100 %

Jackups

350 300 250

200

Active supply Demand

110% 100%
Utilisation
Active utilization

150

100

200 150 100 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

90 %
50

80% 70%

80 % 0 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 70 %

Solid line - 30 p.a. JU assumed scrapped/removed Dotted line 15 p.a. JUs assumed scrapped/removed
Source: RS Platou Offshore Research

RS Platou Economic Research RS Platou Offshore Research Oslo

Utilisation

90%

Active utilization

15

Offshore Support Vessel Demand Summary


Estimated demand by water depth Demand growth by source (%)

3,500 3,000

15%

2,500
2,000 1,500

CAGR* Shallow Deep Total

97-11 5.2% 8.3% 6.7%


9.2%
Annual change (%)

13% 11% 9% 7% 5% 3%

Vessels

4.6%

1,000 500 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Shallow


CAGR* - Compounded annual growth

1%
-1% 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Deep

Production Support

Drilling Support

Construction Support

Note: Due to lack of data (non-existing), supply vessel demand is not recorded directly, However, demand may be calculated implicitly through: dayrates= f(utilisation=demand/supply) - dayrates, utilisation and supply are known variables.
The implicit demand is compared to our bottom up model, which estimates OSV demand mainly through rig support, production support and construction support. R2 of the bottom up demand model and implicit demand was in the period 1998-2011 88.85%. RS Platou Economic Research RS Platou Offshore Research Oslo
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Ordering activity: AHTS & PSV


AHTS PSV

250

180 160

200

140 120

150

Vessels

Vessels
100
50

100

80
60

40
20

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 (ytd)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 (ytd)

10-15,999 BHP

16,000+ BHP

<10,000 BHP

-500 m2

500-899 m2

900+ m2

Source: RS Platou Offshore Research

RS Platou Economic Research RS Platou Offshore Research Oslo

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Existing OSV fleet and orderbook by year of delivery


November 2012

UNITS PSV (M2) -500 500-749 750-899 900+ TOTAL

EXIST.FLEET 365 433 85 236 1,119

ON ORDER 48 52 103 161 364

Delivered 2012 11 17 14 45 87

2012 19 6 12 28 65

2013 23 30 56 68 177

2014+ 6 6 31 64 107

ON ORDER IN % OF EXIST.FLEET 13.2 12.0 121.2 68.2 32.5

AHTS (BHP)

4-7,999 8-9,999 10-15,999 16-19,999 20,000+ TOTAL

1,127 212 314 107 68 1,828

107 8 28 26 16 185

65 12 10 6 2 95

55 8 16 11 2 92

40 0 10 11 11 72

10 1 3 4 3 21

9.5 3.8 8.9 24.3 23.5 10.1

RS Platou Economic Research RS Platou Offshore Research

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Vessels are significantly delayed


AHTS Floaters PSV

250
200
Vessels

250
Del. according to jan 2012 obook Actual del. of vsls in Jan 2012 obook

160
140
Del. according to jan 2012 obook

160
140

200
Vessels

120
100

120
100

150

150

80 60 40 20

100 50
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

100 50
-

Actual del. of vsls in Jan 2012 obook

80 60 40 20
-

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

RS Platou Economic Research RS Platou Offshore Research Oslo

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Few signs of significant pickup in rate of delivery


AHTS deliveries by region of build PSV deliveries by region of build

80 70

35

30
25
Vessels

60
50
Vessels

20 15

40 30 20 10 2008-1 Brazil 2009-1 China 2010-1 Other Norway 2011-1 North America 2012-1

10
5 2008-1 Brazil 2009-1 China 2010-1 Other Norway 2011-1 North America 2012-1

RS Platou Economic Research RS Platou Offshore Research Oslo

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Expected OSV fleet growth


AHTS PSV

250

20 %

250

20 %

200

15 %

200

15 %

150

150
Fleet Growth

Fleet Growth

10 %

10 %
Vessels

Vessels

100 5% 50 0% 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 -50 Deliveries Scrapping/Removals Fleet Growth -5 %

100 5% 50 0% 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 -50 Deliveries Scrapping/Removals Fleet Growth -5 %

Source: RS Platou Offshore Research

RS Platou Economic Research RS Platou Offshore Research Oslo

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Global OSV utlisation likely to rise further, albeit with short term weakness
November 2012 Global supply, demand and utilization rate
4000 3500 3000 2500
Vessels

150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Demand Supply Utilisation


RS Platou Economic Research RS Platou Offshore Research

2000 1500 1000 500 0

Utilisation Rate

22

Dayrate forecast AHTS and PSV ($)


basis 12 month charter AHTS PSV

70 60 50
USD '000

70 60 50
USD '000

50

50

45
40 35 30 25

45
40 35 30 25

40

40

30
20 10 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

30
20 10 -

20
15 10 5 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

20
15 10 5 -

Asia 12,000 bhp W Africa 16,000 bhp

N Sea 10-15,999 bhp Brazil 15,000 bhp

N Sea 16-19,999 bhp

Brazil 500-750 m2 W Africa 500-749m2

N Sea 500-749 m2 Brazil 900+ m2

N Sea 900+ m2

Note: The forecasts are annual averages and will therefore not indicate variations within a year.

RS Platou Economic Research RS Platou Offshore Research Oslo

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Summary
December 2012

RS Platou Economic Research RS Platou Offshore Research

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RS Platou ASA (Oslo): Haakon VII's gate 10 N-0116 Oslo Norway Switchboard telephone: +47 23 11 20 00 www.platou.com

RS Platou (Asia) Pte. Ltd.: 3 Temasek Avenue #20-01, Centennial Tower Singapore, 039190 Telephone: +65 6336 8733 www.platou.com

RS Platou Economic Research

A large part of the 70s/80s built fleet has already been removed
November 2012
180 160 140 120 Vessels 100 80 60 40 20 0 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 DP DP1 1998 DP2
RS Platou Economic Research RS Platou Offshore Research

Existing fleet (including 2012) 70/80s 90s DP2 3 43 DP1 14 55 DP 1 7 No DP 148 39 Removed 87 2 Total 253 146

00s+ 546 192 22 35 0 795

Total 592 261 31 222 89 1194

2002

2006

2010

2014

NO DP

Removed

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