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18-comparisions
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• When the levels of one factor (diet) are associated with the levels of another factor (location), we say that these two factors are
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()*+,'!-(!.#%!+$#+#$%-#.),!%#!%&'!-.?$')('!-.!%&'!()*+,'!(-@':!;&'!
0#!0#A!0!4>0#A01A!A'M20>2%#9! confounded. Randomization eliminates confounding, simplifying the interpretation of data.
• " we reject H0 if the p-value of the test is less than 0.05.
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• The estimated standard error of the difference between averages of independent samples is
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$%"!" $ $ !"% # # '
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)(!*2?&!%#!(,-?'!%&'!*)$/-.!#"!'$$#$!-.!&),":!
• Conditon for doing t-test for se.
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o SRS condition (Simple Random #"*!>I'!&'0#!%@!
(#:&!**(-#*+!"#32&4;$%#;"!-'#'(-(&!/#";?"/&!5*"#@.A%-<#@0A#*2#<!"*!-';!"+#*+(# Sample)
40&?C2#3!A24>12GF>2%#!24!#9! o Similar variances
o No evident lurking
'&2;5"8#B2&#*+!"#(C%45$()#!*,"#42&(#;"(3;$#*2#:&!*(#*+!"#32&4;$%#%"$
factor

" " • Two-sample t-tests and two-sample
o Nearly normal
'!4>0#A01A!A'M20>2%#!%@!>I'!40&?C2#3!A24>12GF>2%#!24!>I'!
7"<(-,*9'(,(0,/6-'(&"(<'(#''&@(A(0%/6-'(,#0<'*(%0(B/"*'(%0( $'%Bothconfidence
$(% intervals for the difference between two means allow us to compare results
$%"!" $
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.'))'*:C(.4)(&,),(!"0)()%/'(,#&(/"#'51(7"<(/4!8(%0('#"498@(
obtained
'
from two
( # # "
samples. ' $ rely on standard error of the difference between two sample averages and the use
procedures
of a t-model for the sampling & distribution.
&( Experiments provide the ideal data for such comparisons. In an experiment, subjects
'>I'1!0!?1%?%1>2%#!%1!#%>*!>I'!@%1&FC0!@%1!>I'!4>0#A01A!'11%1!24!
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& from a sample are randomly 'assigned !"#$%&'()*&+*#,&-*./012#
to treatment groups defined by levels of the experimental factor. This randomization
avoids confounding that introduces the possibility of lurking factors.
05*!!
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16-confidence interval
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#!"& ##
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4 > K
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" •• A confidence
;#!/'%!)!+)$%-?2,)$!*)$/-.!#"!'$$#$=!(#,<'!"#$!-!-.!%&'!"#$*2,)3!
"!" $ !"(interval # $ %provides ! a range
+'&% !"34# parameter based on the data in a sample.
$ % of plausible values for a population
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" ## '
!# #
#
"# !( $',$$
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#$ ! #
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#$

• Confidence intervals provide #
;&'!.'?'(()$6!()*+,'!(-@'!0'+'.0(!#.! :!I'!?)..#%!'(%-*)%'!
a range #! of a population. The coverage (or confidence level) of a
of plausible values for a parameter
!%&'("&)*"(+,*"-*.+&/01()/2"+("&)+&"3*&4**1"&)*",*+1"+15"6+-/+17*"
confidence interval is the probability that this procedure produces an interval that includes the parameter. Most often,
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(!8!B356*+--1!5869*7!C8518D-3!*:!A0353!E85"*%!F!'"#$'%&!
confidence intervals& have coverage 0.95 and are known as 95% confidence intervals. The margin of error is the half-length of
'()%&
"
>'!&)<'!.#!-0')!#"!! # the 95% confidence interval. The one-sample z-interval for the mean of a population is   y ± 2 s/   n. This confidence interval
=!-%!>#2,0!1'!)!/##0!-0')!%#!#1%)-.!)!(*),,!
#$"!12!/03!7386!*(!8!=*-+76!*(!6+7D352!=*939!82!#!38=0!/173!/03!
presumes a large sample. This same interval applies to proportions of large samples, with s2 estimated as ˆ p (1- ˆ p ). The
()*+,'!%#!'(%-*)%'!"#:!A!'+(-.*/.012!?#,,'?%(!)!(*),,!()*+,'!#"=!
endpoints of a confidence interval should " be rounded to presentation precision by applying the 3-to-30 Rule to the standard
C36/!*(!16/3532/!08,,362!869!=*939!82!G!*/035A123&!!<!=*-+76!*(!
error.
()6=!JK!%#!LK!?)('(!%#!'(%-*)%'!
• Difference 0.4191 #:! t Ratio 0.879117
691=8/*52!*(!86!3C36/!-1@3!/012!12!=8--39!8!+,--.&/0120345&!!H03!
o Std Err Dif 0.4768 Prob > |t| 0.3802
2#()8'(06'!%,-(!,0'("$(6*"6"*)%"#0:(<'(&"#3)(#''&(,(6%-")(0,/6-'1(
o Upper CL Dif 1.3583
0.8,1"/(1'&"58,39"":0-3!-1@3-)!/03!6873!=*732!(5*7!/03!(8=/!/08/!
o Lower CL Dif -0.5200
;&'!$',)%-#.(&-+!1'%>''.!#o!).0!8!),,#>(!6#2!%#!'(%-*)%'!-!
03!9+77)!C8518D-3!12!9351C39!(5*7!86*/035:!7*53!+23(+--)!=*939!
Confidence 0.95
o
>-%&#2%!F.#>-./!).6%&-./!)1#2%!8:!E"!6#2!,##F!)%!.)%-#.),!
*-+76&!!'6!/012!3487,-3:!/03!9+77)!C8518D-3!1691=8/32!A03/035!
o 18. Which of the following is INcorrect?
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03!=+2/*735!8==3,/2!86!8,,-1=8/1*6;! o
o
A. The mean difference of about 0.4 is statistically insignificant at the 5% level.
B. The null hypothesis that the population means are the same cannot be rejected at the 5% significance level.
I"43--(,-0"(#")%!'(68*,0'0(-%E'(BJ8'0'(*'04-)0(,*'(,!!4*,)'()"(K(L(
62&F!#! 1(!8,,-1=8/1*6!12!53/+5639!
o C. The values between –0.52 and 1.36 cannot be rejected as possible population mean differences at the 5%
significance level, and this holds true in particular for the value zero.
6"%#)01C(J8'(KLM(%0()8'(/,*9%#("$('**"*1(2)()4*#0("4)()8,)()8'0'()<"(
62&F!G! 1(!8,,-1=8/1*6!12!6*/!53/+5639!
o The value of |t| says that the observed mean difference 0.419 is 0.879 standarderror estimates away from zero.
+$#+'$%-'(=!J=JKK!$'(+#.0'.%(!).0!)!L9!*)$/-.!#"!'$$#$=!?#*'!
03!7386! &$!12!/03!,5*,*5/1*6!*(!/1732!/08/!8!6
o The p-value says that the!12!#:!A08/!A3!
2
probability of observing a value of |t| > 0.879 in other datasets is about 0.38, assuming
the null hypothesis of equal population means is correct.
%#/'%&'$:! #$
2+8--)!-8D3-! !"&!H*!233!/08/!
• The central&$!!F! !"theorem
limit#$ states that means across datasets are&$
:!A51/3!/03!6+7358/*5!*(! !82!/03!
ever more normally distributed as N → ∞.
• The standard deviation of proportions across datasets shrinks at the rate 1/N ½
!
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!"3!4#
03!2I+8539!93C18/1*62!8D*+/!
"
* Complex Bayes &$!217,-1(132!-1@3!/012;!
formula: reversing conditioning
% %

'# '#
P(A|B)*P(B)$
" "& & &$
P(B|A) $ $
$
="-----------------------------------
% & ( & #$ !" "
(
P(A|B)*P(B) + P(A|not B)*P(not" B)
(%" (%"

" numerator = P(A and B)$
Proof:
denominator
'#
% = P(A
%& $ '#
!"B) +(P(A and"&
and#$
$
!" !
not #$
B) $
&( % % & ( %"

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% !% & %" # #$ !"$ $

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!)!%distribution for !" under H0,! . !
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)4-1&(!-(45!453!./(!/01,./()'2(3!-(45!&'(!
z-statistic +
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6572 483
t-statistic
4(+<*!=,<@&@E*!*)),)!@;9)*(<*<D! ).4534+3!(++,+)!414+.7!8/(!+4.',!,*!./(!3(9'4.',5!,*!./(!.().!).4.').':!*+,-!
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-./0 & -.44 O!2)!P#OO!8(-!6.3/'!,35!/'
!)!% % ,!$ ! )!% % ,!
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)/,35,-5!(--.-!$9'#!F"GHI9'JKL"M"NK?OP"4*+"A.-$)?"()#&"E+,
(! "1/& "2 3$ +! (!! -.441/& -.442 3/-- +!
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$ -.-50 /'(!"$1,>+(T!
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F igure 15-2. Sa mpling distributions for p = 0.20, 0.22, or 0.24.
9%(*)(1)!#11.1! $#= !" >!M!$>?*!
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.1! = #"!$!"6>N$#=
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