XPLORAH 4.2.

3 WORKSHOPS
SPATIAL DECISIONS SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR PUERTO RICO

THE UNIVERSITY OF PUERTO RICO - RÍO PIEDRAS GRADUATE SCHOOL OF PLANNING AND THE RESEARCH INSTITUTE FOR KNOWLEDGE SYSTEMS, NA, MASTRICHT, NL

XPLORAH 4.2.3 WORKSHOPS
SPATIAL DECISIONS SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR PUERTO RICO
THE UNIVERSITY OF PUERTO RICO - RÍO PIEDRAS GRADUATE SCHOOL OF PLANNING AND THE RESEARCH INSTITUTE FOR KNOWLEDGE SYSTEMS, NA, MASTRICHT, NL

Product information XPLORAH is a Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS) designed specifically for Puerto Rico. For further information contact the Graduate School of Planning of The University of Puerto Rico: 1 (787) 763-7590, 1 (787) 764-0000, extension 85117. Or you may contact us at XPLORAH@upr.edu

This software product, including program code and manual, is copyrighted, and all rights are reserved by the Graduate School of Planning of the University of Puerto Rico and the Research Institute for Knowledge Systems, NA. The distribution and sale of this product are restricted according to the United States Copyright Act of 1976, as amended. Except as permitted under the United States Copyright Act of 1976, as amended, no part of this product may be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of the Graduate School of Planning of the University of Puerto Rico. Disclaimer The authors and the Graduate School of Planning of the University of Puerto Rico and the Research Institute for Knowledge Systems, NA, assume no responsibility for any errors that may appear in this manual or the XPLORAH System software. The user assumes all responsibility for the selection of the program and the use of this manual to achieve intended results, and for the installation, use, and results obtained from the program and this manual.

Layout, Illustration and Publishing: Graduate School of Planning - University of Puerto Rico - Río Piedras Content: RIKS, BV Maastrichter Pastoorstraat 14 6211 BV Maastricht The Netherlands Contributing Researchers (in alphabetical order): Alex Hegen Richard Hine Jelle Hurkens Patrick Luja Maarten van del Meulen Saim Muhamad Yu-e Shi Inge Uljee Hedwig Van Delden Roel Vanhout Jasper Van Vliet Production Team: • Elías R. Gutiérrez, Ph. D. Project Director Director of the Graduate School of Planning, UPR • Prof. José M. Auger-Marchand, MA Editor • Julio C. Verdejo, MA Layout, Illustrations and eBook production

The Production Team would like to thank the following students of the course PLAN 6059 Decision Support Systems of Dr. Elias Gutierrez for their commentaries: David Carrasquillo, Josué Gonzalez, Luis Martinez, Alberto Millán, Jorge Miró and Luis Villanueva © Graduate School of Planning - University of Puerto Rico - Río Piedras (2012) - Pending

Introduction .........................................8 Chapter 1 Getting Started .....................9
Saving maps from the Land use map window .........................11 Creating a scenario ..................................................................14 Running a scenario ..................................................................16 Indicators ................................................................................17 Analysis ...................................................................................18 Creating and running an alternative scenario ............................21 Summary .................................................................................28

Chapter 2 Zoning tool ...........................29
From spatial plans to zoning status ..........................................29 Running the baseline scenario .................................................32 Introducing a new plan ............................................................33 Creating a sub-scenario ...........................................................34 Setting the hierarchy ................................................................35 Interpreting zoning plans ..........................................................35 Saving the Spatial planning scenario ........................................37 Running the scenario ...............................................................37 Summary .................................................................................38

Chapter 3 Map Comparison Kit .............39
Compare the results ................................................................40

Summary .................................................................................41

Chapter 4 Carolina XPLORAH Municipio .42
Carolina in detail ......................................................................42 Linking Carolina to the rest of the island ...................................44 Summary .................................................................................46

Chapter 5 Flood Risk Management ........47
Indicators ................................................................................47 Areas prone to flooding ...........................................................48 Flood indicator .........................................................................49 Mitigation strategies .................................................................51 Summary .................................................................................52

Chapter 6 Input map creation ...............53
From polygon to raster ............................................................54 Raster legend ..........................................................................58 Raster and Legend Import ......................................................58 Summary .................................................................................58

INTRODUCTION

Today’s world is increasingly more complex and changing rapidly. Numerous processes operating at different spatial and temporal scales act and react upon each other, making it difficult to understand and assess the impact of interventions on the human-environment system. Nonetheless, planners and policy makers face the challenge of making decisions in this complex system. They are not only confronted by interventions in their own sector, but must think about the impact of interventions in all sectors as well as a range of external factors not directly influenced by policy interventions, such as climate change and global socio-economic developments. Integrated spatial models, comprising of several components representing different processes, can support the policy practice in understanding the (unexpected and often unwanted) side effects of policies as well as the trade offs that need to be made and win-win situations that can be created. To enable this type of analysis, the integrated model should allow for feedbacks between the model components to ensure a truly dynamic integration resembling real-world interaction between these processes. Furthermore, such models should incorporate both socio-economic and bio-physical components and ensure proper linkages to the policies at stake and the indicators relevant for policy making (Van Delden et al., 2007; Volk et al., in press). One of the most influential policy domains that can be tested using an integrated spatial model is spatial planning. Spatial planning is an activity that takes places at different scales, from local city planning to national land use plans. As these spatial plans influence each other as well as other processes, they require an integrated system for the analysis of their effects. In addition, spatial plans come in a rich variety. Some are strictly enforced, other less so. Some impose restrictions, while others actively stimulate developments. Moreover, not all plans are continuously valid as they can be activated in time, or stopped any time later. In this workshops we will work with integrated model, Xplorah, which is developed with the aim to support the Puerto Rican policy practice. It has been developed in an interactive and iterative process together with the intended users, Puerto Rico’s Planning Board and the local municipalities. The model links processes operating at various spatial scales, such as macro-economic behavior, the evolution of the population on the island, the interaction between the various municipalities and the local dynamics. Xplorah is equipped with several policy levers that impact on the model at the relevant scale of the policies. The system subsequently provides results in the form of social, economic, transport and environmental indicators at the spatial levels asked for by the users. We focus on one of the major enhancements that was made based on user interaction: the development of a zoning tool to support spatial planning in Puerto Rico. This zoning tool allows introducing and interpreting spatial plans on all scales individually, without much processing. We will explain how the tool operates and demonstrate its applicability by showing a practical example for future residential development in the coastal zone.

CHAPTER 1 GETTING STARTED
This workshop aims to familiarize the new users with the XPLORAH system. Specifically, we will also explore the option of working with the scenario manager, a feature that allows you to use scenarios straightforwardly.

Opening a project
Open XPLORAH from the start menu. All programs / Geonamica / Xplorah 4 / Xplorah. Click OK in the about box. When the system asks for a file name to open Select a *.geoproj file from: My documents / Geonamica / Xplorah 4 / Simulations and click Open.

XPLORAH 4 uses Geonamica project files, which have the extension *.geoproj. Older simulation files cannot be opened by this software. An XPLORAH project can include several different simulations for the same area, hence the name changed as well as the new structure of these files. When you open XPLORAH two windows appear: the Main window, from which you can control a complete project, and the Land use map. Since these two windows are essential to work with XPLORAH, they cannot be closed. You can however shrink them by clicking:

the minimize button

or expand them by clicking

the maximize button

in the top right corner of the respective windows.

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Figure 1.0 - Land Use Map Window.

Cells are the smallest spatial units in XPLORAH, currently measuring 240 by 240 meter for the entire Island and 60 by 60 meters for Carolina. The cells on the land use map represent the predominant land use on a cell. To the left of the land use map you will find a legend that explains the meaning of the colors on the map. As you can see, some land uses are underlined while others are not. This indicates how the dynamics of these particular land uses are computed and will be explained in a later workshop. Additionally, when the Land use map window is active, you will find the coordinates and the land use of the cell where your cursor is in the lower pane of your screen. Question # 1 : What is the land use of cell ( 624; 109) on the initial land use map?

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To see a location in more detail you can use the zoom in button. In the lower left window, a rectangle on the mini map is available to navigate the different parts of the zoomed map in the main window. To zoom out you can use the zoom out button. You can also use the shortcut keys ctrl + ↑ to zoom in and ctrl + ↓ to zoom out. A quick way to fit the zoom of the map to fit the Land use map window is to use the Fit map to screen button. This will automatically resize the land use map to fit the window’s size. The Pan button will turn the pointer into a hand symbol that allows you to grab and drag the map image moving it to a desired location. Finally the Zoom in to area button will permit the user to draw a quadrant to a desired zoom in area. You cannot view all land use changes, as well as other available information, while a simulation is running. However you have several possibilities to export intermediate and final results of a simulation. You can take an individual map and export it to analyze it, you can create a log file that contains a series of land use maps to be analyzed afterwards, or you can make an animation that shows you the land use change over time.

Saving maps from the Land use map window
To export a map you need to activate the land use map window, then press Save Grid from the Grid tools section. There are several different file types that you can choose to export maps. From these, the Arc ASCII format (*.asc), the IDRISI raster format (*.rst) and the ERDAS image format (*.img) are the most common. All these file types can be used in the MAP COMPARISON KIT (MCK), a tool that will be introduced later to analyze simulation results. Log files are files that contain a reference to one or several maps. You can decide yourself how many maps you want to store for eventual analysis. Log files can also be read by the MCK for further analysis. Finally, Animated maps come as a *.gif file which you can play in a web browser or picture viewer.

When you activate the Main window, you see that the left hand side is subdivided in four parts: Drivers, Scenarios, Indicators and Analysis. These parts correspond to the steps that are typically involved in the running of any scenario impact assessment study. First, the drivers for future changes are set. Then the various drivers are combined in one integrated scenario and next, the scenario is run. Results of this run are presented in the indicators section, while afterwards these results can be further investigated in the analysis section. We will elaborate on each of these parts here in more detail, and do some scenario exercises with afterwards.

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Figure 1.1 - Main Window Driver section. Setting drivers

The drivers in XPLORAH represent those forces that induce changes over time. For example migration is a driver that induces demographic changes, while a spatial plan is a driver of land use changes. XPLORAH distinguishes between three types of drivers: External factors, Policy measures and Parameters. External factors are those drivers that have an influence on Puerto Rico, but that annot be easily influenced, such as the climate, or the price of oil. Often the direction and extent of these drivers is rather uncertain: we do not know exactly how the climate will change and there are no solid predictions on the future price of oil. So, even though external factors cannot be influenced by policy makers on the island, they have a major impact on developments in Puerto Rico and should therefore be included in scenario studies.

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Select from the Drivers the External factors by clicking on this icon:

You can click on any of the graph buttons to open a time line for future scenarios. Open the graph for Real rate of growth of US GDP.

Question # 2: What is the expected rate of growth in 2020? Do not change anything yet, we will do that while creating a scenario later in this workshop. Policy measures represent those drivers that can be actively influenced by Puerto Rico itself. Typically, these are policies that can be set or adjusted nationally or regionally, such as spatial planning or economic investments. As these drivers can be influenced, they are of course an important input for scenario analysis. Select Policy measures from the Drivers section by clicking on this icon: From the drop down Driver list you can select one of the three sectors for which policy measures can be set. Select from the drop down list Drivers – Economics. Open the graph that shows the Number of new public housing units being built.

Question # 3: How many new houses will be built in 2017? Do not change anything yet, we will do that while creating a scenario later in this workshop. Finally, there is the Parameters section, from which you can access all model parameters. These parameters are set in the calibration process and reflect the current behavior of actors on the island, such as their normal preferences for the allocation of new commercial centers and the equations of the macro economic model. Because parameters reflect the normal behavior of actors, it is not something that should be changed as part of a scenario study. Select Parameters from the Drivers section by clicking on this icon: A system diagram appears that should look familiar from the previous Xplorah workshops. There is no need to interact with this system diagramas all model inputs requiered for a scenario analysis and all results that are required can be accessed elsewhere.

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Figure 1.2 - Parameters section and XPLORAH model diagram.

Creating a scenario
The value of a system like XPLORAH is not in the result of a single simulation run. After all, you would not be able to tell the effect of a policy measure or external effect from one simulation run alone. Therefore, a typical use of the system involves a scenario study where the results of two or more future scenarios are compared. Say, a baseline scenario that represents a continuation of current practices compared with a situation where oil prices are increasing rapidly or where a new land use plan is introduced to prevent undesired urban developments. In fact it is recommended that one of the scenarios should always be the baseline scenario. So far you have opened and used only project files. These files can be recognized by the extension *.geoproj. One project file can include several scenarios. In fact, since XPLORAH includes models that cover several drivers, you can create scenarios for each of theseareas. Therefore, we distinguish between sub-scenarios and integrated scenarios. A sub-scenario refers to a scenario for a particular driver. For example the climate model can have a medium global warming subscenario or an extreme global warming sub-scenario.

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An integrated scenario includes a sub-scenario for each of the drivers. Hence, an integrated scenario includes sub-scenarios for climate change, population, macro economy, etc. Select from the Main window the Scenarios part. Here you will find the Scenario manager and the Server data icons.

Figure 1.3 Scenario manager section.

Currently, we will work only with the scenario manager. When you select the Scenario manager you will find a drop down list where you can select an integrated scenario on the upper side and similar drop down lists on the lower side for the sub-scenarios. When you open the scenario manager, you will notice that the integrated scenario is labeled “Baseline (active)”. As mentioned, this will be the scenario which will be used to compare alternative scenarios, and make future analyses. At this moment there is nothing else to do. In this workshop you will create new sub-scenarios and from these assemble an alternative integrated scenario which you can use for analysis.

Figure 1.4 - Integrated scenario drop down list.

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Running a scenario
Now you have seen how to defined the Drivers, selected appropriate sub-scenarios and from them assembled an integrated scenario, you can run a simulation. Running a simulation is not done through the main window, but from the buttons on the toolbar instead. Here you will find the buttons Step , Run , Stop and Reset to control a simulation.

The tool bar
The Toolbar gives faster access to some of the more frequently used commands that are also accessible via the menu.

Step lets you compute changes for one year starting from the current year. Run starts the simulation of changes until the final year of a simulation. The Stop button stops a simulation that is running at the end of the year for which it is computing. Reset sets all values back to those of the initial year, in this case the year 2003. These actions (Step, Run, Stop and Reset) can also be found under the Simulation menu in the menu bar. Under simulation there are two additional options: Update and Pause. Update can be used after you change any parameters. This command will recompute all values for the current year given the current parameter values. Pause allow you to define the pause at a given time of a simulation run. Choose Pause from the simulation menu. The Pause Setting window appears which currently includes only a pause in 2030, the end year of the simulation. Press Add to add a new pause. The Add pause window allows you to introduce a new pause at a given time. Fill in 2005 and press OK. Because the simulation computes only yearly changes it is sufficient to enter the year only. Add another pause in the year 2008 and press OK. The system is now ready to start running the simulation. Press Run in the toolbar. The system now starts running and will automatically stop in 2005. You can look at the land use map to see land use changes. We will examine other results shortly. Press Run again to continue the simulation to 2008 where the system will stop again. Do not press Reset yet.

Advance the simulation with one simulation step.

Advance the simulation till the next pause is reached.

Stop the simulation after the current step is finished.

Reset the simulation. Switch the simulation clock back to the initial year of simulation.

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Figure 1.5 - Pause settings.

Indicators
When you run a scenario you can see changes in land use immediately on the land use map. However, XPLORAH generates a multitude of results of which the land use map is only one. The other results are accessible from the Indicators section in the Main window. For easy navigation, the indicators are subdivided thematically into Environmental, Economic, Social and Transport indicators. In addition, the system allows us to store maps, save numerical results and make animations of changes in maps over time. We will use these later in the workshop. In the Main window, choose the Indicators section and select Social. This section includes the results of demographic changes over time.

Here you find three tabs. Select the Population evolution tab to find information about demographic changes over time. Among others it shows the division between youth, active workforce and elderly for each year that is computed.

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Figure 1.6 Population evolution in the Social indicators section.

The bottom part of this window allows you to investigate some results graphically. Click the graph icon next to Total female population and a graph appears that shows the development of the female population over time. Close the graph that displays the total female population.

The indicator section offers many other indicators that include information from several parts of the model. This includes both spatial and non spatial data. We will not investigate all indicators here, but use several of them in the workshops.

Analysis
Although the indicators already show many results for the current scenario run, you might want to investigate your results more in depth. The Analysis section offers three possibilities for this: the Contingency table, Monte Carlo analysis and Map Comparison.

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In a Contingency table you can compare the values on all locations in one map with those of another map. For example you can use the tool to find the land use distribution in each of the municipalities:

From the Analysis section, choose the Contingency table button: Two trees are presented, both indicating all available raster maps in XPLORAH. Maps are organized by model blocks that they are computed in. You can shrink and expand sections of the tree to get a better overview. From the left tree, select the map that represents the division in municipalities. You can find it from Municipalities – Municipalities map. It appears as highlighted when you click on it. From the right tree, select the initial land use map for the whole island. You can find it under Land use models – Land use model island – Land use island – Initial land use map. Click Show contingency table. A table appears that shows the municipalities on the vertical axis and the initial land uses on the horizontal axis. Question # 4: What is the number of cells with High density trade and services in Guaynabo in the initial land use map?

As indicated earlier, the value of a system like XPLORAH is not in the result of one particular simulation run. This is partly because there is an inherent uncertainty in the results. That is not because the model is not a good model, but because of the intrinsic uncertainty in the processes that drive land use changes. In that sense, a land use model is similar to weather forecasts: the further you extrapolate into the future, the less certain they are. This uncertainty is represented in the model with a random perturbation term. This term causes each result of the land use map to be a little different. Therefore it is more meaningful to derive conclusions from a series of simulation results than from one result only. The Monte Carlo tool allows running multiple simulation runs at once. The result is then depicted as a probability map for each land use, which is again constructed from each of the model results.

Open the Monte Carlo tool from Analysis - Monte Carlo by clicking on the Monte Carlo icon. Click the check box in front of Calculate to activate the Monte Carlo tool. Set the number of simulation runs to three and press Start. This takes a few minutes, so this is a good moment for a cup of coffee.

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Figure 1.7 Save probability maps drop down list.

When the three simulation runs are finished, you cannot see the individual land use maps from each of these runs. Instead, this procedure results in a probability map for each land use, where the probability that a specific land use is found on a particular location in 2030 is derived from the number of runs of a simulation.

Open the probability map for the land use High density residential by clicking Show probability map for land use and selecting the right land use. Consider the distribution of probabilities.

Question # 5: Is there much variation among locations or not?

Because we only ran the model for three runs, there should not be much variation in the probabilities. Actually there are only four possible values: 0%, 33%, 67% and 100%. For a proper Monte Carlo analysis the number of runs should be much higher, but that would take too much time for this workshop, or at least a very long coffee break.

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Finally, the Map Comparison icon opens the MAP COMPARISON KIT. This is a separate piece of software that helps in analyzing maps in grater detail. It includes a series of algorithms for the comparison of two maps.

Creating and running an alternative scenario
Now that we have gone through the user interface, it is time to create an actual scenario, run it and investigate the effects. In this second part you will go through these steps and save your scenario using the scenario manager. You will evaluate the eventual results of this scenario exercise as well. The project file that you have worked with so far only includes baseline scenarios for each of the possible sub-scenarios. Since there are no alternatives yet, there is also only one integrated scenario available, called the Baseline scenario. In this workshop you will create two new subscenarios, and with these new subscenarios you will assemble a new integrated scenario. You will introduce a sub-scenario with the assumption that less young Puerto Ricans are leaving the island each year. In addition, you will create a sub-scenario where the input scenarios for the macro economic model are different from the baseline. Reset the simulation that you have already opened from the Reset button on the main toolbar. Select from the Drivers – External factors. Open both the male and female graph for Structural legal net immigration rate by clicking on the graph icon. Here you will find the values that represent the migration rate for the specified age-group per 1000 inhabitants per year. Add or change the values for Structural legal net immigration rate for the years 2003 and 2030 for different age categories separate for males and females according to the table 1.0 below.

Age 15-­‐19 20-­‐24 25-­‐29 30-­‐34

Baseline  (Male) Scenario  (male) Baseline  (Female) -­‐9.7 -­‐1.7 -­‐7.7 -­‐25.4 -­‐11.2 -­‐19.4 -­‐3.9 1.2 -­‐2.9 0.5 5.2 1.5

Scenario  (Female) -­‐0.2 -­‐4.8 1.8 6.1

Table 1.0 Changes to the values for Structural legal net immigration rate for the years 2003 and 2030.

You can make changes in graphs in two ways: either you can select a bubble on the graph it self and drag it to the desired position, or you can right click on one of the bubbles and enter the new value manually. Additionally, you can introduce or remove any bubble by double-clicking somewhere in the graph area. When you want to place a bubble outside the area of the graph you can click Options. A new window appears where you can introduce the minimum and maximum values for both axes.

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Once you have changed these parameters, you can save your project file. To do so, press the Save button in the toolbar. When you press save, a new window appears where you can specify how you want to save your changes. Normally, when you make changes in a sub-scenario, you can choose from two different options: Save as new scenario and Discard changes. Since all baseline scenarios are defined as “read only” the save in active scenario option is not available; however, once you have created an alternative scenario the save active scenario will be available. As you can see, the system recognizes in which parts of the drivers you made changes. In this case, this is indicated for the population driver as the text field for Population scenario which indicates the options to save your changes, while all other parts have (No changes) in their drop down list. Save your changes as a new sub-scenario, by choosing Save as new scenario. Click the Details button to enter additional information on this scenario. A window appears where you can enter an appropriate Name for this sub-scenario, and an additional Description if you want. Enter the required information in both fields and press OK. You have now saved your changes as a new sub-scenario; however, this is not included in an integrated scenario yet. As with the baseline sub-scenarios, the baseline integrated scenario is defined as read only. Therefore, to include your changes, you need to define a new scenario. Enter a name for the new integrated scenario in the field next to Integrated scenario name as well as a description next to Integrated scenario description. Press Save to actually save your changes. In the drop down list Integrated scenario in the toolbar you have now the option to choose among two integrated scenarios.

As explained, the new scenario will not only include different assumptions for the demographic changes, but also a different scenario for the macro economic model. Open External factors from the Drivers section.

Click on the graph icon

next to the Real US transfer payments.

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For this sub-scenario we assume a drastic decrease in the Real US transfer payments from 2010 onwards. Change the graph according to the values in table 1.2. Remove all other bubbles after 2010, except the one that represents the data for 2030, which you cannot remove, by double clicking each one. As you see, the model interpolates values linearly when no other data points are known.

Year 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2025
Table 1.2 Real US transfer payments.

Baseline 7235 7676 8144 8639 9166 9724 10316 10944 11273

Scenario 3618 3838 4072 4320 4583 4862 5158 5472 5637

Again, you need to save this sub-scenario. Press Save from the toolbar. The save project window now indicates that you made changes in the Macro economic scenario. Save your changes as a new sub-scenario in the same way as you saved the Population scenario and save it as part of a new Integrated scenario as well. Now open the Scenario manager in the Main window. Here you can either select an existing Integrated scenario from the drop down list or create a new one from existing sub-scenarios. Click New next to the Integrated scenario drop down list. The Create new integrated scenario window appears.

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Figure 1.8 Create new integrated scenario window.

Fill in a proper name for the new integrated scenario and a description. For each of the sub-scenarios choose one from the drop down list. Choose the newly created subscenarios for Population scenario and Macro economic scenario. If you did not make any other changes, there is only one option available for each of the other sub-scenarios. Now you have defined a new integrated scenario and it is time to run it. Select the Integrated scenario you just defined from the drop down list in the menu bar. Before we actually start running, we will set the options to save results for further analysis. XPLORAH gives you three options to do so: write to excel, log maps and animate maps. In a later workshop we will use log maps for later analysis with the MAP COMPARISON KIT. In this workshop we will use the other two.

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Write to Excel lets XPLORAH write numerical results to an Excel file for further analysis. Animate maps allows you to make an animation of the yearly changes in any of the maps that is available in the system.

Choose Write to Excel from the Options menu in the menu bar. Here you can choose which results you want to write to Excel and for which year. First, as we are interested in the developments over time, you need to generate additional dates for which to write data. Click Generate. The Generate moments window will pop up.

Figure 1.9 Write to Excel and Generate moments windows.

Automatically, the dates that are entered are the start and end year of the simulation, while the interval steps are set to one year. You can change these dates if you want, but for this workshop we will use these settings. Press OK to close this window and generate yearly moments to write data. As you can see, a whole list of dates appears.

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For each model block you can indicate whether you want XPLORAH to write results to Excel. To do so, you need to fill a proper name in the Excel sheet name fields. Fill a proper name for the results from the model block Macro_economics. To finalize, click the Start writing button Next to the numerical results we will make an animation of the land use map to see how land use changes over time. Choose Animate maps from the Options menu in the menu bar. The Animation settings window appears.

Figure 1.1.0 Options menu, Animated Maps.

Click the check box in front of Land use map. You can find it under Land use models– Land use model island – Land use island.

Figure 1.1.1 Animated Maps settings.

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Automatically, XPLORAH places this animation in a folder next to the location of the project file. Hence you do not need to change the Animation folder. Press OK. Now you are ready to run your simulation. Press Run.

If you did not yet remove your pause settings you will find out that the system stops automatically in 2005, and when you press run again another time in 2008. Press Run each time to continue to 2030. When the system reaches 2030 you are ready to look at your results. Open the Options menu again. As you can see there are check marks in front of Write to Excel and Animate maps to indicate that both are still activated. Open Write to Excel option from the Options menu. To view the numerical results, click Open Excel workbook. XPLORAH will ask if you are sure to terminate the link to Excel and Excel will automatically start after you click OK. The sheet that opens contains the results for all components of the macro economic model and for all years for which the simulation was run. Save this sheet under a name of your choice. To view the animation of the land use map you can directly go to the folder where this animation is stored. Go to the folder My documents / Geonamica / Xplorah 4 / Simulations / Animations. In addition to the folders that were there initially, you find a new folder called Animations, within which there is a folder for each map type that you selected. You will find the file Land use map.gif in the folder Land_use_island. Right click on this file and choose Open with. You can select any web browser to see the animated land use map.

Video 1.0 Land use change animation.

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Now that you created a scenario and ran it, it is time to save some results. However, there is no result yet to compare this with. For this we use the baseline scenario which was already available. Hence, to evaluate the simulation results we need to run the project file again for this baseline scenario and save the same results. From the drop down list next to Integrated scenario choose Baseline. Press Reset to return to the start year of the simulation. Activate the Write to Excel again and fill in a name again in the field for the model block Macro_economics. Make sure that the Animate maps functionality still creates an animation for the land use map of the island. Now press Run , to simulate changes in the baseline simulation. At the end of the simulation, open the Excel book that contains the results for the baseline scenario and save it with a name of your choice but be careful not to use the same name you gave to the prior scenario. Now you have run a baseline scenario and an alternative scenario for which results are saved for further analysis. You can do so in Excel. Pay special attention to those variables for which you have made changes in the scenario.

Summary
In this chapter you had the opportunity to learn about Xplorah’s interface and take a first look at scenario creation and saving and exporting data necessary for further analysis of simulations. Creating integrated scenarios and examining their effects gives you the knowledge to continue exploring the integration of policy and how Xplorah represents that interaction with land uses in Puerto Rico.

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CHAPTER 2 ZONING TOOL
XPLORAH 4 is equipped with a tool that allows the inclusion of spatial plans. Therefore, it can better assess the impact that spatial plans can have on future spatial developments.
In this workshop you will work with this zoning tool and introduce a new zoning plan so that it has the intended effect on land use developments and that it can be used for policy analysis. For analysis we will use the MAP COMPARISON KIT, that will be coverd on the next chapter.

From spatial plans to zoning status
To use a spatial plan in Xplorah, the plan needs to be represented spatially; that is, on a map. Since plans typically consist of many parts, a map can have several categories. For example, the plan “protected areas” has the categories “protected forests”, “protected nature” and “not protected areas”. The effect of each of these categories can be different for a specific land use.

Figure 2.0 Main Window, Policy Measures section.

Before we start introducing new land use plans, let’s first take a look at what is already available in the project. Open XPLORAH from the Start menu. You can find it from All programs –Geonamica – Xplorah 4 – Xplorah. Open the project Xplorah Workshop 2.geoproj from My documents / Geonamica / Xplorah 4 / Workshops. From the Main window, choose Drivers – Policy measures.

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In the drop down list next to Driver you can select three different areas for which XPLORAH allows to set policy measures. Choose Spatial planning. The window pane now shows two tabs: Plans and categories, and Category precedence. The first tab gives an overview of those plans that are incorporated in the system. The second allows you to rank them and set their influence for each land use.

Tip
If the Workshop files are not available, you can use the defaults files that are located in the Xplorah directory. My Documents / X p l o r a h 4 / Simulations / Xplorah_island. geoproj.

This Plans and categories tab show that currently this project contains two plans. You can expand the plans into categories per plan by clicking on the sign in front of it, and shrink it again by clicking on the sign. As you can see there are currently two plans in this project, one outlining the inundation areas and one that represents the protected areas. You can also show these plans as a map. Select the Plans and categories tab. Expand both plans so that the categories are visible for each plan. Select Protected areas by clicking on it. The plan will appear selected. Click Show at the bottom to show the map of protected areas. A new map window will appear that shows the protected areas.

Figure 2.1 Protected Areas plan map.

While the Plans and categories tab only shows the information that is included in the project, it does not show yet what the effect of the plans is on the land use developments. The effect needs to be specified for each category separately and for each land use. This can be done in the Category precedence tab. For example, protected forests can restrict the development of high density trade and services, while it allows new natural developments on that location. More specifically, XPLORAH allows the following interpretations, called the zoning status, for a category: Strictly restricted, Weakly restricted, Allowed, Actively stimulated and Unspecified. Theses categories depend on the position of the enforcement bar, being strict those above and weak those bellow it.

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A category that is Strictly restricted is interpreted such that specific land uses will not be developed at all on that location.The category Weakly restricted reflects that many plans are not necessarily binary yes / no plans, but that in fact the restriction can be interpreted as a constrain, or as a restriction under specific circumstances. The interpretation in terms of land developments in XPLORAH is that developments on locations with weakly enforced zoning are less likely, but possible. Categories that have the status Allowed put no restrictions on that specific land. This is different from the interpretation of the category Unspecified, as allowed indicates that a plan explicitly indicates that developments are allowed, while unspecified does not give any information at all. The category Actively stimulated finally indicates that there are specific regulations that make developments more likely in a specific location. Select the Category precedence tab. Here you find for each category of each plan, information on the zoning status as well as the start and end date. Select from the drop down list next to Land use type in this tab, the land use High density residential. Look at the effect of the category Protected forests. Question # 6: What is the effect of this plan on the development of this land use? Question # 7: Does it allow development of high density residential land uses? Naturally not all plans are valid at all times. Some restrictions end after a certain period, and others are only expected in the future. Therefore it is possible to define for each plan the start time and the end time independently. The start and end date are defined as well in the tab Category precedence, in the columns Start time and End time respectively. By default, plans are valid during the entire simulation period, as indicated with the signs and .

Select the tab Category precedence. Consider the start and end time for the category Protected natural area. Question # 8: Is there a start and end date defined yet?

Click the button for the category Protected natural area. The start date for category window appears. By default the radio button in front of Start of simulation is marked. When you want to change this to a later moment in the simulation you can select Specific date and choose an appropriate date here. As it is not likely that this plan will start or stop at any point in time you do not need to add any information here. When you introduce several plans in one project, two or more plans or categories can be conflicting. Say one category allows urban development, while the other category restricts this development at the same time. For that reason there is a hierarchy in the categories. A category that is ranked higher in the list overrules the categories lower in this hierarchy if there is a conflict. You can change the order of the categories with the arrow buttons left of list:

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This hierarchy is also used to indicate the division between strict and weak restrictions. It is assumed that categories that are ranked higher in the hierarchy of categories will be stricter than the categories that have a lower rank. Therefore the division between strict and weak restrictions can be assigned with one line, which is defined in the Enforcement column. You can drag this line to the proper position yourself. Select from the drop down list next to Land use type the land use Industry. Drag the line in the Enforcement column downwards so that the categories of Protected forests and Protected are Strictly restricted, while the other restrictions are only Weakly restricted.

Figure 2.2 Policy measures, Spatial planning Category precedence section.

Click on the button Preview zoning map to see the combination of all plans for the land use Industry.

Running the baseline scenario
Before introducing any new plans, we will first run this simulation and save the results for later comparison. As the results for this exercise are typically visible on the land use map, we will save the land use maps for further analysis. Reset your simulation if it is not in 2003 yet. Select the Log maps option from Options in the menu bar. The Log settings window appears.
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In the Maps to log overview, select Land use models – Land use model island – Land use island – Land use map, and mark the check box in front of it. In the Log folder section you can select a folder where the logged maps will be saved. By default it will be saved in a folder called Log. You do not need to change anything here. In Log moments you can specify at which moments you want to log maps. In this workshop we will only investigate the result on land use developments in 2030. Press the Add button and the Add log moment window appears. Introduce the year 2030 in the Time field and press OK Click the Turn logging on button and the window disappears. You can check whether logging is turned on in the Options menu from the menu bar. Log maps appears with a tick mark in front if it is turned on. Now press Run to simulate land use changes until 2030. The system will stop automatically at the end of the simulation. Wait for the simulation to reach 2030 Open again the Log settings window from Options – Log maps. Click Turn logging off. You need to explicitly turn this option off to prevent the system from writing away maps each simulation run and to prevent it from overwriting earlier results.

Introducing a new plan
Now that you know how the zoning tool works, we can continue and introduce a new plan next to the existing ones. Currently there is only a plan for protected areas and a plan for flood areas included in the project, but there is not yet a land use plan included. In this workshop you will introduce this plan, set for each land use and all categories the status, the start dates, and the end dates. From the Drivers - Policy measures choose Spatial planning – Plans and categories. Click Import plan and the Import plan window opens.

Enter a name of your choosing in the text field next to Name. Browse for the map file of the land use plan. You can find it in the folder My documents / Geonamica / Xplorah 4 / Simulations / Input maps / 240. There is already a legend for the land use plan. Therefore you can tick the radio button Use existing legend. Choose Land use plan from the drop down list. If you introduce a new plan, you can create your own legend. Press OK to find the land use plan added to your spatial plans.

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Figure 2.3 Import plan dialog window.

Select Land use plan and click Show to take a look at the map that represents the land use plan in a separate map window.

Creating a sub-scenario
To analyze the effect of the introduced land use plan, we need to compare it with the situation without land use plan or with the situation where the land use plan has no effect. As was explained in the previous workshop, this can be done by creating a separate sub- scenario for spatial planning within the current project. Press the Save button from the toolbar. The Save project window opens. Because you introduced a new plan, the fields for the Spatial planning scenario indicate that you made changes. In the drop down list next to Spatial planning scenario, choose Save as new scenario. Click on the Details button on the right of this drop down list. A new window appears where you can enter scenario details.

Figure 2.4 Save project window.

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Choose and enter an appropriate name and if you think it is useful, add a description as well. When you give a name and description, remember that this sub-scenario is the one where the new land use plan has no effect yet. Press OK. The sub-scenario now has the name in text field that you entered. Choose and enter a name now for the integrated scenario, which includes this subscenario. You can enter this name in the text field next to Integrated Scenario name. Press Save to save the entire project including the changes.

Setting the hierarchy
As we explored already in the introduction of the zoning tool, there is a hierarchy in the plans and categories according to which the final zoning status is set. As this hierarchy of categories is the same for all land uses by default, we need to set them before proceeding. You can change the position of a category by selecting this category and using the arrows at the left side of the screen. Go to the Zoning tool by navigating to: Policy measures - Spatial Planning. This hierarchy shows the need for the zoning statuses Unspecified and Allowed. When the effect of a category is Unspecified, it is translucent in terms of combining them. XPLORAH will ignore this category for the selected land use and looks at the categories that are lower in the hierarchy. A zoning status Allowed however will overrule any of the underlying restrictions on the specific location(s) with status Allowed. Select the category SRC (Suelo Rústico Común) of the newly introduced land use plan from the Category precedence tab. Question # 8: Where in the hierarchy do you think this category should be placed? Use the arrow buttons to move the SRC category to the right position. As the zoning status is still unspecified, this will not have any effect yet on the zoning status of a location. Similarly, consider the position of all the other categories in this hierarchy and move them to an appropriate position. Note that the order of categories within one plan is typically not of importance, since each location has only one value for that plan. Check that this hierarchy is the same for all land uses by changing land uses in the drop down list Land use type.

Interpreting zoning plans
The next step is to interpret the various categories in terms of their zoning status for the allocation of land uses. As this interpretation can differ for each category and for each land use, you need to do this for each land use separately. Since the spatial plans are organized per land use, it is most convenient to set all zoning statuses for one land use before moving to the next. Select from the drop down list Land use and type the land use High density residential.

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Select the first category from the newly introduced land use plan. Say it is SU – Suelo Urbano. Question # 9: What would be the right zoning status of this category for high density residential? Set your answer as the status in the column Zoning status. Similarly, set the zoning status for the other categories in the land use plan for high density residential land use. The drop down list under Zoning status has only one status for restriction: Restricted. The division between weak and strong restriction is set in the next column, Enforcement. Drag the Strict / Weak division line down to the appropriate place. Finally you can set the Start time and End time for each of the categories when you feel they start or end at a time other than the start and end date of the simulation. When you have finished setting all parameters for high density residential land use, click the Preview zoning map to inspect the result of your settings.

Figure 2.5 Main Window, Policy Measures section, Category precedence.

Now you have finished setting parameters for one land use type. Similarly, these parameters need to be set for all other land uses as well. You can select these land uses one-by-one. In some cases the introduction of a new spatial plan causes a development that has taken place before to be prohibited by the plan. This is the case when restrictions on industrial development are introduced in 2015, while in 2010 parts of that area already developed into industrial sites. In that case the existing developments will not be removed in XPLORAH. This is called the De Facto zoning: any land use which is already on a

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location is not influenced by further restrictions from zoning plans. The De Facto zoning is set in the Land use model part of the Parameters section of the system and is normally not to be changed as part of scenario exercises.

Saving the Spatial planning scenario
Once the land use plan is introduced and all parameters are set so that the plan is interpreted correctly by the model, you are ready to run this scenario and assess the effects of this plan. However, it is useful to first save your changes as a new scenario. Press the Save button on the toolbar and the Save project window appears. The text next to the scenarios indicate that you made changes in the Spatial planning scenario as it says Save as new scenario. Click the Details button and the Scenario details window opens. Enter an appropriate name and some details by which you can recognize the scenario. Then press OK. While the spatial planning scenario that includes the newly introduced land use plan is visible, you can enter a name for the integrated scenario and a description. Then press Save.

Running the scenario
Now you are ready to run this scenario for comparison with the earlier logged results of the baseline scenario. Instead of logging again, we will write the land use map directly from the screen this time. Hence make sure that the Log maps option is not turned on. Check the Options menu in the menu bar. There is a tick mark in front of Log maps, click on it. The Log settings window appears. Click the Turn logging off button to turn the logging off. By default the Log maps option always saves to the same folder and it uses the same names for similar maps. As a result, if you do not turn the logging off, the system will overwrite the previous results. For this scenario run we will save the maps directly from the screen. Alternatively, when you want to log maps nonetheless, you can do so by creating a new folder in which you can store the results from the second run. For later comparison in the MAP COMPARISON KIT it doesn’t matter which of the two options you choose, as it allows introducing both single maps and log files. Reset your simulation to 2003 if it is not already in that year. Check in the Integrated scenario drop down list in the toolbar that you have selected the right scenario.

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Press Run to run your simulation until 2030. Do not press Reset at the end. After the simulation reaches 2030, activate the Land use map window. You can see the land use map for 2030 here.

The Land use map window has a few possibilities for display and for information retrieval. On the top right you see an overview of map layers that you can show in this map window. When you click on the button, a red cross appears to indicate that you just turned that map layer off. Clicking on the same icon again turns the map layer on again. On the lower right side of the Land use map window you can find the Zoom tools as well as the Grid tools. The Zoom tools can be used to shrink or enlarge the map that is displayed. When the land use map layer is selected, the Grid tools become visible. In the Grid tools you will find Inspect and Save Grid. The other options are disabled because the map which is currently visible is a result and therefore not editable. Inspect can be used to investigate the value of a single pixel. The Save Grid button can be used to save the Land use map as it is currently displayed. Select the Land use map from the list of map layers on the top right. Press the Save Grid button. A new window will appear in which you can save the current map. Navigate to the folder My documents / Geonamica / Xplorah 4 / Workshops / Log / Land use maps to save your results in. Enter a file name by which you will be able to recognize the map, for example Landuse2030_LandUsePlanScenario. Choose a file type in the Save as type drop down list. The MAP COMPARISON KIT recognizes both the .rst and .asc file types. Press Save. Your scenario results are saved now.

Summary
Learning about how Xplorah integrates land use policy with the Zoning tool is an important part of this workshops. Together with other model blocks, spacial policy integration will give Xplorah the necessary information to more accurate simulate effects on land use. In the next chapter you will lear about the Map Comparison Kit, a tool to compare the effects of policy scenario on diverse land uses.

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CHAPTER 3 MAP COMPARISON KIT
This section we will learn to use the Map Comparison Kit, one of the most powerful features of Xplorah. This feature allows to compare the result of different scenarios and to determine the changes from one scenario to another . This is of utmost importance for decision makers,as it makes clear and visible the effects of changes in the lands use and other parameters as a result of policy decisions.

The MAP COMPARISON KIT application window consists of the Menu bar, the Toolbar and the Work pane. You can simultaneously open different windows for maps and statistics. Furthermore, it is possible to keep the Comparison Settings dialog window opened while working with the tool: The 1st Map window contains the first map to compare/analyze. To change the contents of toolbar the 1st Map window, choose another map from the drop-down list next to the 1-button on the. If the 1st Map window is not open yet, then you can do so by clicking the 1 button. The 2nd Map window contains the second map to compare/analyze. To change the contents of the 2nd Map window, choose another map from the combo box next to the 2-button on the toolbar. If the 2nd Map window is not yet open, then you can do so by clicking the 2 button.

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The Result map window contains the result map. This map shows the spatial result of the last performed map comparison. Depending on the selected comparison method the results are presented in a continuous scale or a nominal scale. The Result statistics window contains the statistical results of the last performed map comparison. The Comparison settings dialog window allows setting and viewing the settings belonging to the active comparison method.

Compare the results
For the comparison of results we will use the MAP COMPARISON KIT, a separate piece of software that includes a number of algorithms to compare raster maps. There are two ways of accessing the MCK In the Main window, select the Analysis section Click on Map comparison and then on the Start MCK button. The MAP COMPARISON KIT opens. Or you can navigate from the windows Start menu to All Programs / Geonamica / MCK When the MAP COMPARISON KIT opens, it asks you to choose a log file to open. You created such a log file while running the baseline scenario. Go to the folder My documents / Geonamica / Xplorah 4 / Workshops / Log. Select the file MCK.log and click Open. The MAP COMPARISON KIT now displays a map window with one of the land use maps presented as the 1st map. From Edit in the menu bar choose Log file. The Edit log file window appears where you can introduce a new map to the current log file. Click Import and import the land use map for 2030 that you saved as the result of the scenario that includes the land use plan. It is located in My documents / Geonamica / Xplorah 4 / Workshops / Log / Land use maps. Press OK. Now you have included both land use maps for 2030 in one log file and you are ready to compare them. We will do so per land use to investigate closely the differences. Select the 2030 land use map for the baseline scenario as the first map and the 2030 land use map for the spatial planning scenario as a second map. Set the algorithm to Per category. You can do so from Option – Comparison Algorithm. Set the land use type to High density residential. You can do so from Options – Algorithms settings. Show the result map. You can do so from Options – Result map. Question # 10: What is the effect the effect of the land use plan on the high density residential land use?

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Summary
In this workshop you learned how to include spatial plans in XPLORAH and how to use them as a scenario for policy analysis. Additionally you compared the results spatially by comparing the eventual land use maps in the MAP COMPARISON KIT. As spatial plans can have specific effects for each separate land use, the zoning tool can help in investigating the effect of such a plan in more detail and as such facilitate policy analysis.

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CHAPTER 4 CAROLINA XPLORAH MUNICIPIO
The XPLORAH system that you have been using so far represents land use on cells with a resolution of 240 meters. That is a scale that is appropriate to represent Island-wide dynamics. However, it is somewhat coarse for the research dynamics that take place within one municipality.

When analysing the land use dynamics at the Municipio level, there are several alternatives which could be developed. A first solution would be to represent the whole island on a much finer scale, so that it would be appropriate for the analysis of municipal level policies and local effects. This requires much more cells to represent the complete island, which would in turn increase considerably the required time for running the model, thus decreasing system usability. Alternatively, we could set up a mode for only one municipality at a finer resolution. Such a model would represent one municipality at the appropriate scale and have a sufficiently short computation time. However, this solution would omit Island-wide dynamics and therefore remove the context within which these land use changes take place. Moreover, you would need two separate applications for two different scales. Therefore, XPLORAH MUNICIPIO contains a combination of both. While the complete island is represented at a resolution of 240 meters, one selected municipality is represented at a much finer resolution of 60 meters. This combination allows simulating Island-wide land use dynamics within reasonable computation time, while representing one selected area with the detail that is required for regional analysis. In the current version Carolina is the municipality which is selected for representation at a finer scale. In this workshop you will focus on changes in Carolina specifically, given the context of Island-wide dynamics.

Carolina in detail
Before we continue, let’s first take a look at the spatial representation of Carolina. Open XPLORAH from the Start menu Open the project Workshop_3.geoproj. You can find it in the folder My documents / Geonamica / Xplorah 4 / Workshops. When this project opens, two windows open: the Main window and the Land use map window. Activate the Land use map window and zoom in on Carolina.

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By default the municipality boundaries are shown. When you want to hide or show them, you can do so in the upper right side of the Land use map window.

Figure 4.0 Land use map window, Carolina and neighboring municipalities in 240 meter cells.

The map that is shown in the Land use map window is the map that displays the entire island at a 240 meter resolution. As mentioned above, the municipality of Carolina is also available with a 60 meter resolution: Activate the Main window. Go to Indicators – Environmental. Click the Show Carolina land use map button and a separate window will open: the Carolina land use map window.

Figure 4.1 Indicator section, Carolina 60 meter land use map window.

When you look carefully, you find that this map shows much more detail than the Island-wide representation. In fact each Island-wide cell is represented by exactly 16 smaller cells in this municipality. The edge of the municipality however, still represents the Island-wide resolution. Activate the Carolina land use map window.

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Zoom in to an area around the edge so that you can see that there are exactly 4 small cells on the edge of one big cell. Of course, the results for Carolina need to fit those of the rest of XPLORAH to have a consistent system. To check this we will use the contingency tool. The contingency tool is a tool that you can use to cross tabulate values from two maps. For example you use it to investigate the number of cells with industrial land use per municipality. The requirement is of course that both maps have the same number of rows and columns, since a cell must have a value in both maps. We can do so for any pair of maps: In the Main window go to the Analysis section. Click on the contingency table icon. Two trees with an overview of all available maps are shown, ordered per model block. In the left tree, in which you can select the map that is represented vertically in the contingency table, select Municipality Carolina map. In the right tree, in which you can select the map that is represented horizontally in the contingency table, select the initial land use map for Carolina. You can find it in Land use models – Land use model Carolina – Land use Carolina – Initial land use map. Press the Show contingency table button. A contingency table window opens where the cross tabulated values are displayed. Below is an example of this contingency table. On the horizontal axis you see the land uses that are found on the map, and on the vertical axis the region. Since the table cross tabulates the entire map, it includes the land uses within the municipio (Carolina) and outside it (-)

Figure 4.2 Carolina land use contingency table.

Question # 11: What is the number of cells with land use industry in Carolina?

Linking Carolina to the rest of the island
The land use model for Carolina is linked to the rest of the models in XPLORAH in a way that is similar to the link with the land use model for the entire island. Additionally it is also linked to the Island-wide land use model, as both models are each other’s boundary condition. In this workshop we will focus on how the results of the other models work out at both resolutions. Close all windows, except the Main window and the Land use map window.

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From the Options menu, activate the Write to Excel option and put the settings in such a way that you save the results from the Activity model block to Excel for 2010, 2020 and 2030. Press Run to start the baseline simulation and run it until 2030 When you reach the year 2030, do not press Reset yet. Open the Excel workbook and save the file under a different name on your computer. This file will be used in the last part of the exercise. In the same way as you did before running the simulation, create a contingency table of the Municipality Carolina map and the Land use map from the Land use Carolina model block. Write down in the table below the number of cells per land use that is indicated at a 60 meters resolution. Create another contingency table of the Municipality map and the Land use map from the Land use island model block. Pay attention to the results for Carolina region in the contingency table. Exercise: Write down in the table below the number of cells per land use that is indicated at a 240 meters resolution.

Land  use Industry Rangelands Mangroves  and  Swamps

Number  of  60  meter  cells            

Number  of  240  meter  cells

As you will see the proportion is about 16, with minor differences due to rounding. Now it is interesting to see how the allocation of new land uses relates to the differences between the allocation of the fine and the coarse land uses. For this we will create an alternative scenario for Carolina. In this alternative scenario we will investigate the impact of a sudden increase in jobs on the developments in Carolina. This sudden increase can for example represent the opening of a major manufacturing site. Open the Excel workbook that you created in the first run. Open the tab Activity and scroll down until you can see the number of jobs in the sector Industry in Carolina. In this row you can see the development of jobs in industry in Carolina. This development represents the baseline situation, against which we will evaluate the effect of our scenario. Reset XPLORAH to 2003. Go to Drivers – Policy measures – Economics and in the Regional planning section select the sector Industry and the municipality Carolina. Set the Minimum level of activity to 5265 in 2007 and to 7000 from 2008 onwards and press OK. We do not want to impose a maximum, so we can set the maximum to a high value that will not be reached. Set the Maximum level of activity to 15,000 from 2004 onwards and press OK.

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Press Save to save the changes you have just made. Save the changes in a new subscenario by selecting the option Save as new scenario behind the text Regional planning scenario and give this new sub-scenario a name and a description by clicking on Details. Also create a new integrated scenario by changing the name of the integrated scenarios and entering a description for the integrated scenario that reflects the changes you have just made. Next, press Save. Before you continue, check if the active integrated scenario in the toolbar is the integrated scenario you have just created. Jobs in the industrial sector are translated into a number of cells with the associated industrial land use. Although this exercise focuses primarily on the number of jobs, you would also like to make a quick assessment of the effects it has on the land use pattern. Since we will not make an elaborate assessment, we will create an animation. From the Options menu, activate the Animate maps option. Select as Maps to animate both the land use maps for the complete island and for Carolina. From the Options menu, activate the Write to Excel option and put the settings in such a way that you save the results from the Activity model block to Excel for 2010, 2020 and 2030. Run the simulation to 2030. When the simulation is finished, open the Excel workbook and save the file under a different name on your computer. Compare the jobs in industry for the baseline and the alternative scenario using the Excel files you have created. Question # 12: What changes do you notice? Explain Watch both animations (local land use at 60 m and at 240 m for the Carolina municipality) in a web browser. Question # 13: What do you see regarding the allocation of new industrial land uses? Question # 14: What information is gained or lost in the aggregation and disaggregation of land uses?

Summary
In this short workshop we explored the simulation of land use dynamics in one region on a finer scale. Simulating land use dynamics at two different resolutions is a solution that will allow you to investigate local dynamics, while the running speed for the entire model is not too constraining. As you can see, land use in Carolina is consistent with the Island-wide representation, except that some details are lost in the aggregation process.

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CHAPTER 5 FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT
Urban development in Puerto Rico, as well as in many other countries, occurs in areas prone to natural hazards. This is certainly true in areas prone to flooding, as lowlands are flat and facilitate construction; urban areas often started as coastal towns.

As urban developments show a high risk for natural hazards, it is an important aspect to assess in advance. In this workshop we will take a look at the development of urban areas in areas that are prone to flooding. To properly assess this, you will create an indicator that explicitly shows these developments.

Indicators
By default, XPLORAH computes several indicators already. These are a set of results from the model, or derivatives thereof. These indicators are ordered thematically in four groups: Environmental, Economic, Social and Transport. Open XPLORAH from the start menu. Open the project Workshop_4.geoproj. You can find it in the folder My Documents / Geonamica / Xplorah 4 / Workshops. In the Main window, go to the Indicators section and choose Environmental indicators.

Here you find the results to a series of predefined indicators that are included in XPLORAH. Most of the environmental indicators, such as the Potential biodiversity or Natural areas larger than 1 km square appear as maps, accompanied with some numerical information. They are computed each year from the land use map. Just like the land use map itself, they can be opened in a Map window. Click the Show map of natural areas button. The Map window that appears shows the location of natural areas on the island, colored according to their size.

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Figure 5.0 Large natural areas indicator map.

Again, similar to the land use maps, you can create log maps for indicators and make animations of them to see them change over time.

Areas prone to flooding
Although one of the indicator maps indicates the Value at stake on low land, there is no indicator that informs you which land uses can be found in areas that are prone to flooding explicitly. At the other hand, that information is available, since XPLORAH includes land use maps, as well as a map that outlines flood risks. In the Main window, go to the Analysis section and chose the Contingency table. Choose from the left side the Initial land use map. You can find it in Land use models – Land use model island – Land use island. Chose from the right side choose the Inundation map. You can find it in Land use models – Land use model island – Zoning. Click Show contingency table. The table that appears indicates the number of cells for each land use class in each of the classes outlined in the Inundation risk map. As you can see the categories in that map are subdivided by their risk and by the type of flooding that can occur. Consider category AE: 1.0% or greater p/a. These are areas that have a relatively high risk of flooding. Question # 15: What land uses are to be found there? Open Excel from the Start menu. Select all values from the table, by clicking on the top left cell. The table appears blue to indicate it is selected. Copy (Ctrl +C) the values in the table and paste (Ctrl +V) these values in Excel.

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As these areas have a higher risk new urban developments, they may not be desirable here. Hence as a first step in the assessment we will consider what developments take place in these areas. From the contingency table that you just made, write in the table below the number of cells for the indicated urban land uses and in the AE: 1.0% or greater p/a class. Run the simulation until 2030. You do not need to prepare options to store any results, as we will do that afterwards. When the simulation reaches 2030, create another contingency table that shows the land uses per flood class for the 2030 land use map. Select all values from the table, by clicking on the top left cell. The table appears blue to indicate it is selected. Copy (Ctrl +C) the values in the table and paste (Ctrl +V) these values in Excel.

Flood indicator
The location of residential areas and trade and services areas that are prone to flooding can also be visualized with a spatial indicator, similar to the spatial indicators that are already available in XPLORAH. For this you need to define a new indicator. In the Main window, choose Drivers and select Parameters. On the right side the system diagram will appear. This part includes the parameters that are found from calibration, but it also allows you to define a new indicator. In the system diagram click Spatial indicators. A new window opens in which you can find all parameters that are used for the computation of indicators. In addition you have the option of creating new ones. Click the Add new indicator button on the top left part of the window. The Create indicator window opens in which you can select an indicator type and define a name. Select from the drop down list next to Indicator Type the Mask/Mapping indicator.

Figure 5.1 New indicator dialog window

Fill in an appropriate name for this indicator and click OK. A new tab is added that has the name that you just defined. If you want you can still change that name. The indicator you created now exists in XPLORAH, but the parameters are not set yet. Select the tab with the indicator name that you just created.

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In the Input section you can select the map which represents the areas that you will inspect. Click the browse button and select the map Inundation_risk.asc from the folder Geonamica / Xplorah 4 / Simulations / Input maps / 240. This folder is automatically selected since it is the folder that contains all maps that are used in XPLORAH. Click Open. Then, in the Parameters section you can select the land uses that you want to analyze. Select the land uses High density trade and services, Low density trade and services, High density residential and Low density residential and give each of them a value 1. (Note: Instead of giving them all a value of one, you can assign different values for each of the four land use classes, so that you can distinguish these land uses on the indicator map, but for this particular exercise, we will number all with the value 1.) In the same way set the indicator to only count cells with a value larger than 1. Finally click the Calculate tick box on the top left part of this tab. Indicators are only calculated when this is marked. Click Show map.

A new map window appears that shows all flood areas where the four selected urban\ land uses are present. However, as you can see, your map is still blank. This is because XPLORAH computes results year by year, and the results for the current year were already computed before you created this indicator. Instead of running the complete scenario, you can compute values for the current one, including the new indicator. In the menu bar choose Options – Update. Select the Map window again that shows the inundation indicator. Now you can see for all inundated areas where these land use functions appear.

Figure 5.1 New flooding indicator map window

This indicator map is now also available for logging maps, creating animations, or making a contingency table.

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Mitigation strategies
To avoid undesirable developments you can introduce mitigation strategies. In this specific case, since flood is already incorporated as an option in spatial planning, you do not need to introduce the map, but you do need to set the properties of this plan. In this second part of the workshop we will introduce restrictions to urban developments in these areas, and investigate their effect again in terms of the number of cells in areas with high flooding risks. In the Main window select Drivers – Policy measures. From the drop down list select Spatial planning and go to the tab Category precedence. Select from the drop down list the land use High density trade and services. As you can see in the simulation we just ran, the areas that have a high risk of flooding do not affect the allocation of urban land uses, as their zoning status is defined as Unspecified. Hence there are no restrictions for development in these areas. Now to prevent these developments we will run a scenario that aims to mitigate this. In the Category precedence tab of the Spatial planning section, move the four categories that indicate areas with a risk > 1% p/a to the top of the hierarchy. For the four urban land uses that you are considering, set the zoning status for the categories with the highest risk (greater than 1% p/a) to Restricted. For the same four land uses, set the zoning status for areas with medium risk (0.2% p/a to 1.0% p/a) to Restricted. Move the division line between weak and strong restriction so that the areas with the highest flood risk are strictly restricted, and areas with a lower flood risk are weakly restricted. You can do so in the column Enforcement, however, you need to set this for each land use specifically. Save these changes as a new scenario. Hence you first need to save the changes in the zoning policies as a separate Spatial planning sub-scenario, and then you can create a new Integrated scenario that incorporates this spatial planning sub-scenario. Make sure the integrated scenario you just created is the active scenario. You can check and correct this in the menu bar next to Integrated scenario. Run the scenario until 2030. Do not press Reset. When the simulation finished running, you will have the results which can be used for comparison with the baseline. From this comparison we can see the effect of different zoning measures. In the Main window, go to the Contingency table in the Analysis section. On the list to the left select in the the Land use map, you can find it under Land use models / Land use model island / Land use island. From the list to the right select Inundation map, you can find it under Land use maps / and use model island / Zoning island.

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Click Show contingency table, and the contingency table appears that shows the land uses in the floodable areas while the restrictions are in place. Select all values from the table, by clicking on the top left cell. The table appears blue to indicate it is selected. Copy (Ctrl +C) the values in the table and paste (Ctrl +V) these values in Excel. Now you have the number of cells available in areas that have a high risk of flooding in the initial year, at the end of the baseline scenario and at the end of a mitigation scenario. Question # 16: What are the differences between the two scenario results? Explain.

Summary
XPLORAH contains a series of indicators and other ways to present the results for a run or a scenario exercise. However, not all possible ways to represent the results of such indicators are introduced by default. This is simply because there are too many options that you can assess planning issues from. In this workshop you created your own indicator, and in addition you derived model results from a contingency table to compare them afterwards. In this way you can evaluate plans in the way which is most appropriate for the problem at stake, even if this is not available by default.

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CHAPTER 6 INPUT MAP CREATION
In chapter 2 you learned to introduce a plan into XPLORAH using the Zoning Tool. Each raster map to be used in XPLORAH must meet the same cell resolution and extent of the original land use map in order to be incorporated successfully. In this chapter we will discuss the steps of converting a polygon shape file land use plan to a raster image using a Geographic Information System (GIS).

Planning institutions and planning teams use GIS to create plans in order to organize the use of the land within their jurisdictions. These plans are created in vector format and are saved in a polyline shape file. The process of converting those shape files to raster format can be straightforward, but this is only the first step. For this chapter we will be using ArcGIS Desktop 9.3 and the Ponce Land use Plan to demonstrate the process. The municipality of Ponce approved their land use plan in the year 2003. As required by law the Municipality of Ponce divided its territory in six (6) categories:

A - Cuerpos de Agua SRC - Suelo Rústico Común, SREP - Suelo Rústico Especialmente Protegido SUP - Suelo Urbano Programado SUNP - Suelo Urbano No Programado SU - Suelo Urbano

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From polygon to raster
To make the conversion you will first need to load the file into ArcMap. Open Arc GIS Desktop by clicking the shortcut.

To add a layer press the plus button

and navigate to the directory where the file is located.

To convert the plan to a raster format you will use the Feature to Raster of the Conversion Tools toolbox located in Conversion Tools / To raster / Feature to Raster.

As the tool dialog window pops up you will see the required fields to make the conversion.

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The input Feature field is the shape file you will be converting to a raster. Look for the shape file from the drop down menu, drag it from the data frame in to the slot or add it by navigating to its directory clicking the button.

The Field section requires the selection of the attribute or information you want the raster to represent. For this exercise we want the classification of each section of the municipality. Select the classification name class from the Field Drop dow menu.

Click the

button and navigate to where you want to save the raster and name the output file.

Since XPLORAH uses a 240 m cell size, add 240 to the cell size slot.. Press ok and wait for the process to run. Now you have a raster with cells of 240 by 240 of the Ponce land use plan. But this raster doesn’t necessarily correspond to our desired final product. If you look closely you can see it’s misaligned with our Xplorah land use map. To fix this issue you will need to make the Ponce Map to correspond exactly with the land use map. To make them identical in extent and cell size you will need to use the Spatial Analyst extension in ArcGIS Desktop. Look for the spatial analyst tools in the upper menu. If the tools are not visible you can add them by right clicking anywhere on the upper frame and selecting Spatial Analyst form the pop-up list. Now that you have located the tool click over the Spatial Analyst name and look at the different tools available. We are interested on using the options menu. From there we will be using Cell size and the Extent tabs. In both, cell size and extent dialogs, we will change them to be the same as or Xplorah 2003 land use map.
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To add the Xplorah 2003 land use plan, named landuse_2003.asc, by pressing the plus button and navigating to Geonamica\Xplorah 4\Simulations\InputMaps\240m directory.

In the Spatial Analyst Extent tab select Same as Layer landuse_2003.asc from the drop down menu.

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In the Cell size tab select Same as Layer landuse_2003.asc from the drop down menu.

Click Ok.

We have programed the Spatial Analyst options to work with the dimensions use in the Xplorah system. Next, we need to tell the software to execute the new parameter in a new raster. For that we will use the raster calculator. The raster calculator is located in the spatial analyst menu. Using the raster calculator we will evaluate our current raster with the new options we entered.

Select the raster we created for the Ponce Land use plan from the Layers box and double click it. You will see that the name appears in the bottom box of the tool. Click calculate and wait for the result.

You will see that a new raster named Calculation is added to the Data frame. This raster is just a temporary file. You need to save it for later use in Xplorah. Right click on the raster named Calculation.
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Select Data / make permanent from the pop up dialog. Select a directory a name it accordingly.

Raster legend
The maps incorporated to Xplorah consist of a raster and a legend. The legend contains the information for visualization of the map in terms of color and name of the data they represent. Each legend has two parts, the pallet, which gives values for Red, Green, Blue, color model, and the corresponding description to each category. You should keep in mind the order in witch the categories are represented in the raster when creating a legend file since you will be representing them in the same order on the legend file. Create a text (.txt) file representing the 7 classes for Ponce following this template.

You can access a note pad for creating a text file by clicking Start/ All Programs / Accessories and selecting the Note Pad application, or Or by right clicking anywhere on the desktop and selecting New and Text document from the pop up. Save the file in .txt format

Raster and Legend Import
To make both the raster and legend files accessible to Xplorah you can copy them to the directories where all other maps and legends are located. Copy the raster to the Geonamica\Xplorah 4\Simulations\InputMaps\240m . Also copy the legend file to the Geonamica\Xplorah 4\Simulations\Legends folder . With, our raster and legend ready, we can now create a scenario for the Ponce Land use plan following the same procedures in the Introducing a New Plan section in Chapter 2.

Summary
This last workshop gives you the complete the work flow necessary for a successful simulation. Learning to create spacial plans for Xplorah makes it possible for policy regarding land use and zoning to be integrated and effects of different plans weighed using an scientific tool like Xplorah. Together with the Zoning Tool and Map Comparison Kit Xplorah give users the right tools to help in their decision making process.
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