Commodities Daily Report

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Monday| 26 Aug, 2013
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Agricultural Commodities

Content
News & Market Highlights Chana Oilseeds Edible Oils Spices Sugar Cotton Guar Complex

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar Chief Manager- Agri Commodities vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130 Shruti Ghanekar Research Associate shruti.ghanekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6133 Anuj Choudhary Research Analyst anuj.choudhary@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132

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Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd. Your feedback is appreciated on commodities@angelbroking.com

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Commodities Daily Report

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Monday| 26 Aug, 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
NEWS HIGHLIGHTS
Rice, pulses acreage climbs; cotton, sugarcane sowing flat
Kharif acreage, so far, is higher by eight per cent at 968.48 lakh hectares (lh) over the corresponding period last year, aided by a 14 per cent excess rainfall across the country. Planting is complete in over 90 per cent of the normal area of 1,068 lh. Rice acreage was higher at 324.73 lh with States such as Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Gujarat and Haryana reporting more area under the cereal. In pulses, the acreage under tur or arhar is higher by about a tenth at 36.55 lh as Karnataka, Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat have reported higher areas. The total oilseeds acreage at 186.59 lh against last years 162.01 lh is boosted by a record planting of soyabean during this year. Soyabean is sown on a record area of 121.80 lh, while groundnut is planted on 41.24 lh. Even castor, sesamum and sunflower have seen a rise in acreage. Despite a lower acreage, the cane yields are expected to be higher this year boosted by well-spread and excess rains in the key cane growing States. Despite an early progress in the cotton acreage, the area this year would remain flat at around 111.34 lh. (Source: Business Line dated Aug 24, 2013)

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on August 23, 2013

WoW MoM YoY

Sensex Nifty INR/$ Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl Comex Gold - $/oz

18313 5408 64.56 105.03 1371.2

18519 5472 63.21 106.42 1395.7

1.13 1.17 -2.09 1.32 1.79

-0.42 -0.66 2.50 -0.97 1.75

-8.78 -9.97 5.76 -0.76 4.54

.Source: Reuters

Damage, delay likely in soybean crop this Kharif

Heavy and incessant rains may increase the extent of damage to soybean crop and delay harvest in Madhya Pradesh, said farmers and experts. Many areas like Hoshangabad, Betul, Bhopal etc have already reported losses during the previous spell of rains. More areas may report damage if rains do not stop in the coming days, said experts. Madhya Pradesh is witnessing heavy and incessant rains from the last 2-3 days and regional weather department predicts more rains in growing regions in the coming days. The state has already received 18 cm more rains from the normal rains during the whole season, said D P Dubey, director, IMD Bhopal. More rains are likely in Malwa i.e. Indore and Ujjain divisions in the coming 2-3 days, added Dubey. Malwa and Nimar are the major soybean growing areas in Madhya Pradesh. Madhya Pradesh contributes more than 70% of the total soybean production in the country. Predictions of more rains are worrying soybean farmers in the state and they feel the crop needs open weather immediately. (Source: Business
Standard)

Pulses harvest this kharif may be more

Indias pulses harvest during the kharif 2013 season is expected to be between 65 lakh tonnes (LT) and 70 LT, higher than the 59 LT last kharif season. Assuming normal weather conditions over the coming four weeks, we expect pulses harvest during the kharif 2013 season would be between 65 LT on the lower side and 70 LT on the higher side, said India Pulses And Grains Association (IPGA) Chairman Pravin Dongre. Indias total production for 2012-13 was 18 million tonnes (MT) of which the kharif produce was 5.95 MT and rabi produce was 12.05 MT. The kharif season accounts only for 35 per cent of the annual production. The rabi season (February/March harvest) accounts for a dominant part, Dongre said. (Source: Business Line)

Paddy, Basmati crops under attack, dept lacks fungicide

The paddy and Basmati growers in Punjab are fretting over the recent attack of sheath blight on their crops in many villages. Farmers fear that this might hit crops' yield in coming days. The agriculture department, which had failed to ensure the availability of fungicide Propoconizole to check the spread of yellow rust during the wheat crop season, is also lacking stock of the fungicide. The department on Friday asked farmers to purchase fungicide from market. Farmers informed the agriculture department about sheath blight and sheath rot, a major disease of rice crops, which might decrease the production from two to five quintals per acre. None of the paddy varieties, including PUSA-44, PUSA 1121, PR108, PR116, are resistant to sheath blight, said the deparmental sources. The farmers have grown different paddy varieties on 48000 hectares and Basmati on 6000 hectares area. When weather conditions are favourable, the disease spreads to upper leaves and inflorescence and affects yield, said an official. (Source: Hindustan Times)

Maharashtra to launch food security scheme in Dec: Minister

The Maharashtra government is all set to roll out the ambitious food security scheme in the state from early December which will benefit about 7.17 crore people, a state minister has said. This includes 4.70 crore people in the rural areas (76.32 per cent) and 2.30 crore in urban areas (45.34 per cent). The state government will be providing 35 kg of food grains to the cardholders which includes wheat at Rs two and rice at Rs three per kg. The government was constructing 584 godowns having a capacity of 5.95 lakh metric tonnes to store the food grains, at an estimated cost of Rs 500 crores, he added. (Source: Economic Times)

'Unproductive cane varieties to blame for poor sugar output'

Even as sugar mills seek government support for clearing dues towards cane farmers, experts point out a sharp decline in the cultivation of early variety of sugarcane that contributes to more sugar recovery. According to a survey of Indian Institute of Sugarcane Research (IISR) the percentage of acreage of early variety has declined from 40% in 2002 to around 8% in the recent times. Director, IISR, Sushil Solomon said that in some regions of the state the area under early variety of sugarcane has dropped to barely 4% which is alarming."Farmers are increasingly resorting to run down varieties," he observed, ripping through the state government claims of doing its bit for the farmers in the state. There is an inadequate application of inputs, non availability of quality seeds and deteriorating soil health as well,'' Solomon said. He added that the labor shortage and delay in crushing of cane too are contributing factors to the lessened quality production of sugarcane. (Source: Times of India)

Monsoon to stay above average in rice areas Met Dept

The monsoon rains are expected to be above average again next week over eastern areas that grow rice, weather officials said, helping farmers speed up sowing and possibly plant a greater acreage than usual. Rains were 26 percent above average in the week ending August 21, data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) showed, and were heavy in areas where rice, oilseeds, cane and cotton are grown. The monsoon, crucial for the 55 percent of farmland that does not have irrigation, has already brought the heaviest rains in nearly two decades during the first half of the season. Jharkhand and Bihar had received less rain than average for the season, but last week rains there picked up, allowing rice sowing to accelerate. (Source: www.firstpost.com)

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Commodities Daily Report

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Monday| 26 Aug, 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
Chana
Chana futures traded on a positive note for the second consecutive week on account of rising demand ahead of the festive season and lower supplies. Also, heavy rains in the kharif pulses growing regions have raised fears of damage, further supporting the prices. However, adequate stock positions to meet the festive season demand capped sharp gains. The spot as well as the futures settled 4.84% and 6% higher on a weekly basis. As per a circular by NCDEX dated August 21 2013, Special Margin of 5% on the Short side imposed earlier has been withdrawn in Chana with effect from beginning of day Friday, August 23, 2013. As per the data released by the ministry of Agriculture, area under kharif rd Pulses stood at 99.63 lakh ha as on 23 August 2013, up by 16.8 percent compared to the corresponding period last year. Pulses sowing in Gujarat as on 19 Aug was seen on 4.46 la ha, up by 23.8% compared to the same period last year. Also, sowing of kharif pulses in Rajasthan was seen 22.56 lakh ha, up by 37.98% compared to the corresponding period last year.
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Market Highlights
Unit Chana Spot - NCDEX Chana- NCDEX Sept'13 Fut
`/qtl `/qtl

as on Aug 24, 2013 % change Last 3250 3136 Prev day 2.40 2.25 WoW 4.84 6.78 MoM 14.58 14.20
Source: Reuters

YoY -33.26 -34.37

Spread Matrix
Closing 3250 3136 3208 3281 20-Sep-13 -114 0 -

as on Aug 24, 2013 18-Oct-13 -42 72 0 20-Nov-13 31 145 73 0 as on Aug 22, 2013 Stocks as on 21st Aug 58787 55616 11629 126032 Qty in Process 160 30 0 190

Spot 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Bikaner Delhi Indore Total Stocks as on 22nd Aug 57512 55616 11529 124657 Qty in Process 160 30 0 190

Demand supply scenario

After producing record 18.45 mn tn Pulses, India is set to produce record crop for second year in row in 2013-14 as sowing during the ongoing kharif season is excellent propelled by good rains. Also, favorable soil moisture level has made ground for bumper Rabi harvest too. In value terms, India imported $2.3 billion of pulses in 2012-13, almost 28% higher over $1.85 billion in the previous year. However, imports may drop in 2013-14 season on expectations of higher output. Kharif Pulses witnessed a marginal decline in the output which was offset by a considerable rise in Rabi output, especially Chana during 2013-14. Higher returns earned in 2012, coupled with a hike in minimum support prices (MSP), and helped expand overall chana acreage in 2012-13 seasons. Chana sowing in 2012-13 was 5.65% higher at 95.17 lakh ha compared to previous year. As per the estimates, Chana output was pegged at a record 8.8 mn tn compared with its third advance estimates of 8.49 million tonnes and a previous record of 8.2 mn tn in 2010-11.

309

111

938

1358

Technical Chart - Chana

NCDEX September contract

Outlook
Chana futures are expected to trade continue trading higher extending last weeks gains, supported by improvement in demand ahead of the upcoming festive season. Adequate stock positions coupled with withdrawal of special margins on short side may however, cap sharp upside in the prices.

Source: Telequote

Technical Levels
Contract Chana Sept Futures Unit `/qtl Support

valid for Aug 26, 2013 Resistance 3165-3200

3065-3100

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Commodities Daily Report

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Monday| 26 Aug, 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
Soybean
Soybean futures traded on a bullish note last week on account of crop concerns due to heavy rains in Madhya Pradesh, raising fears of damage to the standing crop coupled with a weak Rupee. However, expectations of a bumper output due to a higher acreage capped sharp upside in the spot. The spot as well as the Futures settled 4.31% and 11.04% higher w-o-w. As per data released by the ministry of Agriculture, area under oilseeds rd was recorded at 186.6 la ha on 23 Aug, 2013, an increase of 15.2 percent as compared to the corresponding period last year. Indias soy meal exports in July declined by 36.4% to 1.07 lakh tonnes as compared to 1.68 lakh tonnes last year. As per data released by Maharashtra Government on 23 Aug, 2013, Soybean sowing was done on 36.31 la ha, up by 14.9% compared to the same period last year. Similarly, in Rajasthan, soybean sowing was th undertaken on 10.58 la ha, 6.86% higher than last year as on 15 Aug, 2013. Also, in the state of Andhra Pradesh soybean sowing was up by 49.47% compared to the corresponding period last year. International Markets Soybean Futures on CBOT traded on a positive to bullish note last week and gained 6.39% due to warm and dry weather in the US Midwest raising fears of loss of yield. The USDA crop progress report downgraded the good-to-excellent rating to 62% from 64% last week. USDA reported that 72% of the crop is setting pods vs. 90% a year ago. Also, 92% of the soybean crop is blooming vs. 98% a year ago. Weather concerns coupled with higher than expected export sales data have helped push up the prices. The USDA monthly crop report revised the acreage to 77.2 mn acres from its earlier estimates of 77.7 mn acres. Harvest estimates have also been trimmed to 3.255 bn bsh from the earlier estimates of 3.42 bn bsh. Forecast of 2013-14 ending stocks have also been slashed from 295 mn bsh in July to 220 mn bsh.
rd

Market Highlights

as on Aug 24, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW 1.23 4.31 2.24 3.27 0.69 0.88 11.04 6.39 1.88 2.49

Unit Soybean Spot- NCDEX Soybean- NCDEX Oct '13 Fut Soybean-CBOT Sept'13 Fut RM Seed Spot- NCDEX RM Seed- NCDEX Sept'13 Fut
`/qtl `/qtl

Last 3701 3399 1365 3625 3452

MoM 8.82 13.13 -6.65 1.88 6.94

YoY -19.16 -15.58 -20.96 -20.93 -22.79

USc/Bsh
`/qtl `/qtl

Source: Reuters

Soybean Spread Matrix

Closing 3701 Spot 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 20-Dec-13 3399 3405 3424.5 0 6 0 18-Oct-13 -302 20-Nov-13 -296

as on Aug 24, 2013 20-Dec-13 -276.5 25.5 19.5 0 as on Aug 24, 2013 18-Oct-13 -143 30 0 20-Nov-13 -115 58 28 0 as on Aug 22, 2013 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 as on Aug 22, 2013 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 60 0 0 60 NCDEX October contract

Mustard Seed Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 Closing 3625 3452 3482 3510 20-Sep-13 -173 0 -

Soybean stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Akola Nagpur Sagar Total Stocks as on 22nd Aug 41 0 0 41 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 60 0 0 60 Stocks as on 21st Aug 41 0 0 41 Stocks as on 21st Aug 1776 251 5174 644 47149 1270 1491 57755

Outlook
Soybean is expected to open higher and trade on a positive to bullish note tracking higher overseas markets coupled with weather concerns and tight supplies in the domestic markets. However, higher sowing and higher output estimates may cap sharp gains.

RM Seed stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Alwar Bharatpur Bikaner Hapur Jaipur Kota Sriganganagar Total Stocks as on 22nd Aug 1776 251 5174 644 47149 1270 1491 57755

Rape/mustard Seed
Mustard seed futures traded on a positive note last week on account of higher oilseed prices coupled with good demand. However, higher output this year has capped sharp gains. The spot as well as the Futures settled 1.88% and 1.86% higher w-o-w. Agriculture ministry in its fourth advance estimates, pegged mustard output at 7.82 mn tn, up by 18.4% compared to 2011-12 season.

Technical Chart Soybean

Outlook
Mustard seed futures may trade on a positive note today. Higher edible oilseed prices coupled with good demand for mustard may support prices. However, higher output and sufficient supplies this season may cap sharp gains.

Technical Levels
Contract Soybean NCDEX Oct Futures RM Seed NCDEX Sept Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

valid for Aug 26, 2013 Support 3320-3360 3410-3430 Resistance 3440-3480 3475-3500
Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

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Monday| 26 Aug, 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
Refined Soy Oil
Ref soy oil futures traded on a positive note on account of higher soybean prices, festive demand and a weak Rupee. However, profit booking was witnessed towards the end of the week, and the prices settled 2.77% higher w-o-w. Agri Ministrys proposal to increase the import duty on refined oil coupled with fears of soybean crop damage has supported prices at lower levels. However, comfortable supplies have capped sharp upside in the prices. India meet 50-55 percent of its edible consumption through imports and thus rupee factor is a major determinant of edible oil prices. As per the data released by the Solvent Extractors' Association of India Imports of vegetable oils, including non-edible oils declined 6.13% to 889,493 tn in July. Monthly soy oil imports rose 69% as local supplies are almost before the soybean crop enters the markets. Stockpiles of edible oil at ports on Aug 1 stood at 610,000 tn, the trade body said, higher than 695,000 tn on July 1. Stocks were still on the higher side despite the decline in monthly imports.

Market Highlights
% Change Unit `/10 kg `/10 kg USc/ Bushel MYR/Tonne `/10 kg Last 699.20 685.40 42.64 2419 544.30 Prev day 0.02 -0.22 0.49 0.71 0.52

as on Aug 24, 2013

Ref Soy oil SpotNCDEX Ref Soy oil- NCDEX Sept '13 Fut Soybean Oil- CBOTSept'13 Fut
CPO-Bursa Malaysia Sept '13 Fut CPO-MCX- Aug '13 Futures

WoW 2.45 0.28 -0.40 2.20 4.19

MoM 4.49 5.28 -4.78 3.11 9.58

YoY -11.80 -15.22 -24.02 -19.82 -3.48

Source: Reuters

Refined Soy Oil Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 Closing 699.2 685.4 660.05 650.5 20-Sep-13 -13.8 0 18-Oct-13 -39.15 -25.35 0 -

as on Aug 24, 2013 20-Nov-13 -48.7 -34.9 -9.55 0 as on Aug 24, 2013

Outlook
Soy oil may trade higher tracking bullish international edible oil prices coupled with festive demand and overall weakness in the Rupee. However, comfortable stock position of imported edible may cap sharp gains.

CPO Spread Matrix

31-Aug-13 30-Sep-13 31-Oct-13 Closing 544.3 535.6 525.4 31-Aug-13 0 30-Sep-13 -8.7 0 -

Crude Palm Oil

MCX CPO Futures traded on a positive note last week opened higher on account of festive demand coupled with a weak Rupee. However, KLCE palm oil futures also gained 2.2% on account of weaker Ringgit, boosting prospects of higher exports. Indonesia has cut export tax on crude palm oil to 9% in September from 10.5% in August. Prices on the KLCE had earlier declined to the lowest level this year and have spurred export demand for most consumed cooking oil. Also, an increase in the output is expected due to seasonally higher yield period, which may cap sharp upside and pressurize prices. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products during Aug 1-20 increased 10.3% to 880,979 tons tonnes from 798,482 tonnes shipped during July 1-20. Malaysia has set the export tax for Palm oil at 4.5% for September, unchanged since March. According to Malaysian Palm oil Board, exports increased 0.53% in July against June, while end stocks increased 1%. Exports increased due to Ramadan demand. India's refined palm oil imports declined 27.8% in July to 213,853 tn from 296, 230 tn in June as a weak Rupee made imports expensive.

31-Oct-13 -18.9 -10.2 0

Technical Chart Ref Soy Oil

NCDEX September contract

Technical Chart Crude Palm Oil

MCX Sept contract

Source: Telequote

Outlook
CPO futures are expected to open sharply higher tracking bullishness in the prices on the KLCE, which have gained due to higher CBOT soybean. Festive demand may also support prices further. However, expectations of some recovery in the Rupee coupled with comfortable supplies may cap sharp gains.

Technical Outlook
Contract Soy Oil Sept NCDEX Futures CPO MCX Sept Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

valid for Aug 26, 2013 Support 677-681 531-533 Resistance 689-693 538-541

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Commodities Daily Report

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Monday| 26 Aug, 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
Spices
Jeera
Jeera Futures traded opened lower last week on account of higher arrivals and good rains in Gujarat, which has increased the moisture levels and set the ground for higher sowing, which commences from October. However, prices recovered from lower levels on the back of overseas as well as domestic demand. The spot as well as the Futures settled 0.08% and 1% higher w-o-w. According to IBIS, India exported 9462.64 tn of jeera in June. The major destinations were UAE, Nepal, Vietnam & USA. In the global markets, there is a supply crunch due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions in Syria and Turkey, which has raised supply concerns from these two major exporting countries. Export orders are diverted to India. Production is also expected to decline in Syria and Turkey. 1% Jeera of Indian origin is being offered for Singapore at $2,2502,300 (FOB Mum) while for Europe at $2,500-2,600/tn (CNF).

Market Highlights
Unit `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl Last 13588 13493 5060 5094 Prev day 0.20 1.33 0.00 1.80

as on Aug 24, 2013 % Change WoW 0.08 0.82 -0.23 7.02 MoM -0.28 1.73 -10.27 -8.55 YoY -15.47 -13.12 -6.59 -12.83

Jeera Spot- NCDEX Jeera- NCDEX July '13 Sept Turmeric Spot- NCDEX Turmeric- NCDEX Sept '13 Fut

Source: Reuters

Jeera Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 Closing 13587.5 13492.5 13610 13720 20-Sep-13 -95 0 18-Oct-13 22.5 117.5 0 -

as on Aug 24, 2013 20-Nov-13 132.5 227.5 110 0 as on Aug 24, 2013 20-Sep-13 34.5 0 18-Oct-13 104.5 70 0 20-Nov-13 192.5 158 88 0 as on Aug 24, 2013 Stocks as on Qty in 21st Aug Process 1348 3448 4796 8645 NCDEX Sept contract 0 48 48 0

Arrivals production and Exports

Arrivals in Unjha were reported at 10,000 bags on Saturday. Exports of Jeera in 2012 - 2013 stood at 79,900 tn, an increase of 75%. (Source:
Spices Board)

Turmeric Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 Closing 5059.5 5094 5164 5252

Production of Jeera in 2012-13 is expected around 40-45 lakh bags (55 kgs each), marginally higher than 40 lakh bags last year. Carryover stocks from 2011-12 harvest were around 8-9 lakh bags.

Outlook
Jeera is expected to trade with a positive bias today as overseas as well as domestic markets may support prices. However, higher supplies and good rains in the jeera sowing regions may cap the upside in the prices. Overall trend remains positive for Jeera due to overseas demand, as Syria & Turkey are not shipping.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Jeera Turmeric Jodhpur Unjha Total Nizamabad Stocks as on 22nd Aug 1342 3367 4709 8645 Qty in Process 24 123 147 0

Turmeric
Turmeric futures traded on a positive note last week on reports of fresh export demand. Festive demand from the domestic markets also supported prices. However, huge carryover stocks as well as good sowing progress have pressurized prices in the spot. The spot settled 0.23% lower while the Futures settled 6.08% higher w-o-w. The regulator has imposed 10% special margin on short side in Turmeric w.e.f 06/08/2013 to curb excess volatility.

Technical Chart Jeera

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals in Nizamabad and Erode were reported at 1,500 bags and 5,000 bags respectively on Friday. Sowing of Turmeric in AP is reported st at 0.46 lakh ha as on 21 August, as against 0.49 lakh ha last year and a normal sowing of 0.62 lakh ha. Production in 2012-13 is reported around 45 lakh bags, lower by 4050%. It is estimated that current years carryover stocks would be around 10 lakh bags. (1 bag= 75 kgs). Exports for 2012-13 stood at 80,050 tn, marginally higher than 79,500 tn last year. (Source: Spices Board) Outlook Turmeric futures are expected to trade with a positive bias today on account of fresh export as well as festive demand. However, huge carryover stocks coupled with favorable climate may cap sharp gains and pressurize prices at higher levels.

Technical Chart Turmeric

NCDEX Sept contract

Technical Outlook
Jeera NCDEX Sept Futures Turmeric NCDEX Sept Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

Valid for Aug 26, 2013

Support 13320-13400 4940-5020 Resistance 13580-13660 5170-5250

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

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Monday| 26 Aug, 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
Sugar
Sugar futures traded on a positive note last week and settled 0.46% higher on account of increasing demand ahead of the festive season. An increase in the import duty as well as export demand on the back of a weak Rupee also supported prices. However, ample supplies have capped sharp upside pressurized prices. The Food Minister said that his ministry has moved a cabinet proposal to allow state governments to hike prices of sugar for PDS. Good monsoon conditions in Maharashtra and Karnataka has led to expectations of recovery in the cane yield, keeping prices under pressure. Indian traders have signed deals to export 75,000 tonnes of white sugar in July, reversing an import trend after the rupee's depreciation. However, the same didnt reflect in the market as supplies are significantly higher. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Sugarcane has been planted in rd 48.53 la ha as on 23 Aug 2013 as compared to 50.06 la ha last year as drought affected Maharashtra and Karnataka have reported lower area. Based on satellite images for June and field surveys carried out by ISMA (Indian Sugar Mills Association), total sugarcane acreage available for crushing in the sugar season 2013-14 will be about 51.50 lakh hectares, which is about 1.52% less than 52.30 lakh hectares last year. (Source: ET)

Market Highlights
Unit Sugar SpotNCDEX Sugar M- NCDEX Sept '13 Fut Sugar No 5- LiffeOct'13 Fut Sugar No 11-ICE October '13 Fut `/qtl 3031 `/qtl 483.1 $/tonne 366.00 $/tonne 1.17 0.19 0.03 Last 3048

as on Aug 24, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW -0.08 0.12 -2.26 -4.01 -2.77 MoM YoY -0.19 -13.30 0.30 1.71 0.80 -11.71 -11.70 -15.93

Source: Reuters

Sugar Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 Closing 3047.5 3031 3055 3082 20-Sep-13 -16.5 0 18-Oct-13 7.5 24 0 -

as on Aug 24, 2013 20-Nov-13 34.5 51 27 0

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Delhi Kolhapur Sangli Solapur Total Stocks as on 22nd Aug 449 5452 0 923 6824 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 0

as on Aug 22, 2013 Stocks as on 21st Aug 449 5452 0 923 6824 NCDEX Sept contract Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 0

Domestic Production and Exports

After producing surplus sugar in the current season, sugar output is expected to decline in 2013-14 season on account of lower plantings. However, good monsoon has curbed some losses. According to the preliminary estimate of an industry body, Production is estimated to be 237 lakh tonne for 2013-14 season as compared to 250 lakh tonnes in 2012-13. According to trade body, with a domestic consumption of 235 lakh tonne and an expected production of 237 lakh tonne, the year 2013-14 will be a consecutive fourth year of surplus production for India. ISMA has estimated that the opening balance as on October 1, 2013 (for the new season 2013-14), will be around 80 lakh tonne, which is about 20 lakh tonne more than the normal opening balance.

Technical Chart - Sugar

Global Sugar Updates

LIFFE as well as ICE Sugar traded with a negative bias last week losing 4.01% and 2.77% respectively as prices in Brazil softened due to a weak Real and a stronger Dollar. However, rains and cold weather in Brazil have raised fears of frost and crop damage. The ISO has estimated sugar surplus to fall to 4.5 mn tn in 2013/14 as against 10.3 mn tn last year. Brazil's main cane region produced 2.53 mn tn of sugar in the second half of July, up 5% from the 2.4 mn tn produced in the first half of the month. Prices, in the long term have declined on account of abundant supplies from Brazil. According to UNICA, Brazilian mills have produced 88.95 lakh tn of sugar from the start of the cane season on April 1 through June, up 33 percent from 66.9 lakh tn a year ago.

Source: Telequote

Outlook
Sugar Futures may trade on a positive note on account of festive demand, higher duties and food ministrys proposal to allow higher prices for PDS. However, ample supplies and expectations of a sugar surplus may cap upside and pressurize prices at higher levels.

Technical Outlook
Contract Sugar Sept NCDEX Futures Unit `/qtl

valid for Aug 26, 2013 Support 3022-3026 Resistance 3035-3039

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Commodities Daily Report

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Monday| 26 Aug, 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
Kapas
NCDEX Kapas as well as MCX Cotton Futures corrected from higher levels and settled 2.64% and 1.84% lower last week on account of profit taking coupled with a sharp decline in the international prices. However, demand from millers as well as yarn exports on the back of thin supplies towards the end of the marketing year coupled with a weak Rupee supported prices at lower levels. The government has allowed the Cotton Corporation of India to export more cotton in the current season. Ministry of Agriculture, in its fourth Advance estimates of Food grain production wherein it pegged Cotton output at 34 million bales (1 bale= 170 kg) in 2012-13, lower than the record 35.2 million bales in the previous year. With the cotton season nearing its end, arrivals have declined considerably. According to CCI, Cotton arrivals since the beginning of the th season (Oct 2012- Sep 2013) till 14 July is reported at 331.15, down 1.48 percent compared to same period last year.

Market Highlights
Unit `20 kgs `/Bale USc/Lbs Last 1014 21900 84.24 89.85

as on Aug 24, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW 0.25 -2.64 0.83 -1.84 0.35 -9.81 0.00 -6.50 MoM YoY -2.64 #N/A 11.96 22.14 -2.06 10.99 -3.90
Source: Reuters

NCDEX Kapas Apr Fut MCX Cotton Aug Fut ICE Cotton Oct 13 Cot look A Index

3.75

Cotton Spread Matrix

Closing 31-Oct-13 29-Nov-13 31-Dec-13 21900 20950 20820 31-Oct-13 0 -

as on Aug 24, 2013 29-Nov-13 31-Dec-13 -950 0 -1080 -130 0

Sowing Progress
As per the ministry of agriculture, cotton sowing was reported at 110.93 th la ha on 16 Aug 2013 as against 110.26 la ha last year. In Gujarat, cotton was sown on 26.62 la ha as on 16 August 2013 as against 22.42 la ha during the same period last year. In Rajasthan, it was th done on 3 la ha as on 19 August 2013 as against 4.53 la ha last year. In st AP, cotton sowing was undertaken on 18.65 la ha as on 31 July 2013 as against 18.14 la ha last year.
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Technical Chart - Kapas

NCDEX April contract

Domestic Production and Consumption

Cotton Advisory Board (CAB) in its latest meet dated 17 April 2013 has projected cotton crop at 34 mn bales for 2012-13 season compared to the previous estimates of 33 mn bales. Mill consumption is expected to go up from 22.3 mn bales last year to 23.5 mn bales. Exports are estimated at 8.1 mn bales while imports are estimated 2.5 mn bales. However, Cotton Association of Indias estimates differ from that of the CAB which pegs cotton output for 201213 at 35.2 mn bales as on May 31 down 6% compared with 37.3 mn bales in 2011-12.
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Technical Chart - Cotton

MCX Oct contract

Global Cotton Updates

ICE cotton futures declined sharply last week by 9.81% on account of long liquidation on hopes easing global supply concerns. The USDA monthly report lowered US cotton output forecast to 13.05 million bales, the lowest in four years. The USDA weekly crop progress report rated good/excellent condition at 46% against 43% last week and reduced the poor/very poor at 23% against 25% last week. ICAC has increased projections for global production and endings stocks for the 2013/14 crop year. As per USDA acreage report, the estimate for U.S. cotton planted acreage is down 17% from 2012, but is up from March 2013 estimates.

Source: Telequote

Outlook
Cotton prices may trade on a mixed note with a positive bias. Demand from millers as well as yarn exporters may support prices. However, weak international markets coupled with higher sowing may cap sharp upside in the prices.

Technical Outlook
Contract Kapas NCDEX April 14 Fut Cotton MCX Oct Futures Unit `/20 kgs `/bale

valid for Aug 26, 2013 Support 1005-1009 21650-21780 Resistance 1020-1027 22020-22140

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Commodities Daily Report

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Monday| 26 Aug, 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
Guar Complex
Guar complex recovered from lower levels last week on account of bargain buying as prices have declined sharply over the last 3-4 months. Farmers are also holding back their positions expecting higher prices in the coming days. Guar seed as well as guar gum settled 8.98% and 8.33% higher respectively on a week on week basis. Prices have declined sharply over the past few months on expectations of bumper production due to higher area under cultivation and conducive weather. According to sources, carry forward stocks are higher and in such a situation farmers are increasing acreage in Rajasthan. The country's top guar seed-producing Rajasthan state has received more rainfall than normal since the beginning of monsoon season on June 1, boosting the sowing. Overall trend in guar, since the relaunch of the futures contract, remained bearish. Higher production last year and comparatively lower exports have resulted into higher supplies this year. With early and above normal monsoon so far, prospects for next years crop are also strong.

Market Highlights
Unit Guar Seed SpotNCDEX Guar Seed- NCDEX Oct 13 Fut Guar Gum SpotNCDEX Guar Gum- NCDEX Oct 13 Fut `/qtl 4610 `/qtl 15594 `/qtl 12740 `/qtl 2.99 1.25 3.13 Last Prev day 5772 2.21

as on Aug 24, 2013 % change WoW 7.03 8.98 4.51 8.33 MoM -6.31 -5.14 -9.10 -6.67 YoY #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Source: Reuters

NCDEX Guarseed Spread Matrix

Spot 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 20-Dec-13 Closing 5772.2 4610 4560 4540 18-Oct-13 -1162.2 0 20-Nov-13 -1212.2 -50 0 -

as on Aug 24, 2013 20-Dec-13 -1232.2 -70 -20 0 as on Aug 24, 2013 20-Nov-13 -3014.35 -160 0 20-Dec-13 -2874.35 -20 140 0 as on Aug 22, 2013 Stocks as on 21st Aug 50 52 20 Qty in Process 0 0 0

Monsoon and Sowing

During the last week, rains increased its intensity over areas growing soybean, groundnut and cotton while they eased in the northwest and the northeast regions. However, cumulative rainfall continues to remain above average. According to Rajasthan Farm Department, Guarseed acreage as on 22 July, 2013 stood at 12.77 lakh hectares compared with 10.15 lakh hectares sown during the same period last year.
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NCDEX Guar gum Spread Matrix

Spot 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 20-Dec-13 Closing 15594.35 12740 12580 12720 18-Oct-13 -2854.35 0 -

Guarseed area increased significantly last year. With favorable monsoon and with attractive returns, acreage may remain higher in the coming season too.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Deesa Bikaner Sriganganagar Stocks as on 22nd Aug 50 52 20 Qty in Process 0 0 0

Production and Exports

According to Rajasthan Farm Departments third advance estimates, Guarseed production stood at 20.23 lakh tonnes in 2012-13. Although production is higher compared to the previous year, but still it is much below the initial expectations on account of erratic monsoon last year. In the coming season, higher sowing along with timely rains may boost guar production across India. However, if rains turn truant in the major guar growing areas, then this may adversely impact output. Exports which touched record 7.07 lakh tonnes in the FY 2011-12, declined in the FY 2012-13 as US, the largest importer of Guar gum has stocked huge inventories. During the FY 2012-13, guar gum exports stood at 4.58 lakh tonnes during April 2012-February 2013. US has stocked

Technical Chart - Guar Seed

NCDEX October contract

Outlook
Guar seed and guar gum futures may trade on a positive note on account of lower level demand. Farmers are also holding back their stocks expecting better realization in the coming days. However, overall trend remains bearish due to higher sowing. If the current pace of rains continues and sowing increase significantly, we may see further downside over the short term.

Technical Chart - Guar Gum

NCDEX October contract

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Guar Seed Oct (NCDEX) Guar Seed Oct (MCX) Guar Gum Oct (NCDEX) Guar Gum Oct (MCX) Unit `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl

valid for Aug 26, 2013 Support 4490-4550 4550-4620 12410-12580 12450-12610 Resistance 4680-4750 4750-4820 12920-13100 12930-13070

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