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Environmental Protection Agency

Workshop on Lifecycle Greenhouse Gas Analysis for the Proposed Revisions to the National Renewable Fuels Standard Program

Analysis of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Land User Change A Closer Look on Brazil Andre M. Nassar
Director-General, ICONE
Washington 11 June 2009

ILUC Emissions: Three Topics
  Projections on land allocation (CARD/FAPRI) at a national level (out of US)
  Sugarcane: control case minus imports only case

  Per acre emission factors (Winrock International)
  Step one – step two approach   One shot emission in the year zero

  Calculation of total emissions
  Net expansion in total agricultural land times per acre emissions   100 year period

Projections on Land Allocation (Brazilian Land Use Model)
Outputs from CARD/FAPRI model:   National harvested area: wheat, cotton, corn, barley, soybean, rice and sugarcane.   Total agricultural land expansion is used for emissions calculations.   Types of land displaced by the expansion of ag land are not identified. Improvements to be made:   Regionalize the country:
  Emissions factors can be connected directly to the results.

  Project pasture land endogenously:
  Capture pasture intensification due to competition with crops.

  Separate winter (wheat) and second crops (corn) from the land use analysis.   Include regional land availability taking into account:
  Legal restrictions;   Suitability.

Macro-Regions Used in the Brazilian Land Use Model

Tropical Forest Grasslands

Savannas

Savannas Savannas and Atlantic Forest

North Amazonia Center West Cerrado MAPITO and Bahia Northeast coast Southeast South

Atlantic Forest and Grasslands

Source: ICONE.

Brazil: Land Allocated to Agriculture According to the BLUM Regions (million acres)
Macro-regions, 2008
MAPITO and Bahia Northeast coast North Amazonia Center West Cerrado Southeast

Brazil, 1997 to 2008 700 600 500 400
9.4 24.9 22.1

79.2 27.1 10.2 118.0 131.9 104.8 44.7

12.3

300 200 100 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Pastures South

34.7

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Crops

Crops

Pastures

Crops: Soybean, Corn (1st crop), rice, cotton, dry bean and sugarcane Source: IBGE/CONAB. Elaboration: ICONE.

Absolute Variation: Land Allocated to Agriculture (million acres, 1997 to current)
Soybean, Corn (1st crop), rice, cotton, dry bean, sugarcane and pastures Total ag land

MAPITO and Bahia Northeast coast North Amazonia Center West Cerrado Southeast

-1.0 4.2 3.0 -0.6 4.3 -3.0 12.6 1.8 4.3 -5.2 4.3 -0.9 29.4

3.2 2.4 34.9 9.6 6.2

Pastures South

0.0

30.0 -5.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

10.0

14.0

18.0

22.0

Source: IBGE/CONAB. Elaboration: ICONE.

26.0

35.0

2.0

-6.0

-2.0

6.0

Crops

Example of Direct Substitution: Remote Sensing
South-Central Region: Classes of Land Use Converted to Sugarcane,, 2007 and 2008 (1,000 ha) Crops Pastures Citrus Other

2,500 2,250 2,000 1,750 1,500 1,250 1,000 750 500 250 0 2007 2008 2007-08 434 572 557 1,152 580 991

100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2007 2008 2007-08 56% 50% 53% 42% 48% 45%

Source: CANASAT/INPE, published in Nassar, A.M., Rudorff, B. F. T., Antoniazzi, L. B., Aguiar, D. A., Bacchi, M. R. P. and Adami, M, 2008. Prospects of the Sugarcane Expansion in Brazil: Impacts on Direct and Indirect Land Use Changes. In: Sugarcane Ethanol: Contributions to Climate Change Mitigation and the Environment. Zuurbier, P, Vooren, J (eds). Wageningen: Wageningen Academic Publishers.

Example of Expansion in the Amazon: Data from Soybean Moratorium Project
Amazon Biome: Deforestated Area under Monitoring from 2006 to 2008 by Land Use Classes (hectares)
Total area cleared monitored by the moratorium: 157,896 hectares

83,872 53%

Pastures Deforestation and burning Crops Vegetation recover Other

50,240 32% 3,730 2%
Source: Abiove e Globalsat (www.abiove.com.br).

6,328 4% 13,727 9%

Total Herd (1,000 heads) and Stocking Rate (animals/ha)
region
60 50 40 30 20 10 0 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
Brazil Southeast North Amazon MAPITO and Bahia Elaboração: ICONE. South Center-west Cerrados Northeast Costal

brazil

region
220 1.6 200 180
1.4 1.2 1.0

brazil
1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0

160 0.8 140 120
0.6 0.4 0.2

100 0.0
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
Brazil Southeast North Amazon MAPITO and Bahia South

Center-west Cerrados Northeast Costal

Brazilian Land Use Model: Land Availability (1,000 acres)
Region South Southeast Center-west Cerrados North Amazon Northeast Costal MAPITO and Bahia Total 1 2 3 4 5 6 (A) Total Agricultural (B) Pastures suitable (C) Legally available Land for crops 84,441 133,791 158,570 124,129 35,995 92,157 629,084 14,039 74,959 105,149 96,563 0 20,670 311,380 8,382 16,691 31,161 45,293 481 61,907 163,914 (D) Total available 11,461 32,644 65,555 318,883 481 98,872 527,895 (E) Total available discounting legal reserve deficit 6,493 26,299 56,703 261,867 -353 84,420 435,430

(A) Total land used for soybean, corn (1st crop), cotton, rice, drybeans, sugarcane, commercial forests and pastures. (B) Pastures that are under slopes below 12 percent and out of semi-arid climate. (C) Land under remaining vegetation in areas that can be used for crops (slopes below 12 percent). Legal reserve provision (amount of land with natural vegetation that must be preserved) is discounted. Soil suitability was not considered for the calculations. Soil suitability was not considered for the calculations. (D) Land uncer remaining vegetation in areas that can be used for crops (slope below 12 percent). Legal reserve provision (amount of land with natural vegetation that must be preserved) is not discounted. Soil suitability was not considered for the calculations. Soil suitability was not considered for the calculations. (E) Total land available if the deficits in legal reserve existing in cleared land is eliminated with forest recover or compensation. Soil suitability was not considered for the calculations.

Source: ICONE.

Recalculating Total Emissions Changing Per Acre Emissions Factors for Brazil

475 ths acres 1521 ths acres 499 ths acres 86 ths acres 2,058 ths acres 93 ths acres 373 ths acres 145 ths acres 77 ths acres Additional land converted in Brazil when ethanol demand is shocked (Control Case – Imports Only Case) Source: Figure extracted from EPA’s Draft Regulatory Impact Analysis: Changes to Renewable Fuel Standard Program -44% 100 years -26% 30 years

Recalculating Total Emissions Changing Per Acre Emissions Factors for Brazil

Crops
1,132 ths acres

100%

Savanna
1,132 ths acres

Sugarcane
2,058 ths acres

55% 0% 45% 0%
926 ths acres

-61% 100 years -49% 30 years

Source: Figure extracted from EPA’s Draft Regulatory Impact Analysis: Changes to Renewable Fuel Standard Program