143 views

Uploaded by americus_smile7474

a note about financial economcs

save

- Financial Economics
- Chapter6 GE
- Ts Econometric s
- Jeffrey Wooldridge - Teachers' Guide to Introductory Eco No Metrics (2nd Ed
- CT8-Financial-Economics.pdf
- Microeconometrics Lecture Notes
- Stata Manual 2009
- US Federal Reserve: 199914pap
- Solution Manual for Microeconometrics
- Lectures in Financial Economics
- MC090410137 2010 Latest Quiz for Post
- Financial Economics
- Term Stucture Theories
- Applied. Econometrcisstatapdf
- Lecture Notes in Financial Economics
- 06.the Risk and Term Structure of Interest Rates
- Andres_prosjekoppgave (2)
- Bond Valuation.pdf
- Millerch4
- ch3
- r_qt1809h
- Chapter 5 HW Solution
- Money and Interest
- the yield curve of bond and yield to maturity
- Chapter 6 Lecture Notes
- N
- Interest Rate
- M06_GITM4380_13E_IM_C06.pdf
- Lecture 4 actually this is lecture 3.pdf
- Handout 03
- Ttu 45-2013 thay the 203-2009 (4-2013)
- Phieu Ghi Danh Tu Xa Lop Nguoi Lon
- Book1
- Ac Guide Dec11 Ch 11
- THU CUỐI BEAT
- Bcthantich(Nhat)
- Acter
- Book1
- DANH SÁCH KHEN THƯỞNG LỚP
- TT39_31032014BTC
- Khi giải tầng 2
- Huong Dan Ghi Danh Tu Xa
- Economics Affairs
- 11989_TT19BTC
- Sentence Transformation
- THU CUỐI BEAT
- Econ 252 Spring 2011 Problem Set 5
- ECON252_15_032111_MC
- Review Exercises
- Ch__ng I 2010
- 550.444 FA12 Midterm Solutions
- Chuong 1 Introduction 2013 S
- bai nhom
- baitapthue-cogiai-100302183449-phpapp02
- Chuong 2 Forward and Futures 2013 S
- Econ 252 Spring 2011 Problem Set 5 Solution
- Solution Manual
- 983 Bc Ket Qua Thuc Hien Co Che Tu Chu Ve Tai Chinh0001
- bai tap 16
- Chuong3 Swaps 2013 S

You are on page 1of 136

Lecture Notes

+

Won Joong Kim

,

**The materials covered here are mostly from F. Mishkin "The Economics of Money,
**

Banking, and Financial Markets." 8th ed., and J. Hull "Fundamentals of Futures and

Options Markets." 6th ed.. Students are required to read through the textbook in addition

to these lecture notes. These notes are preliminary and are not to be quoted or cited.

y

Assistant Professor. Department of Economics, Kangwon National University. Email:

wjkim@kangwon.ac.kr.

Contents

I Introduction 3

1 Why Study Money, Banking, and Financial Markets? (M. 1) 3

2 Introduction to Derivatives Markets (H. 1) 9

3 An Overview of the Financial System (M. 2) 16

4 What Is Money? (M. 3) 25

II Financial Markets 27

5 Understanding Interest Rates (M. 4) 27

6 The Behavior of Interest Rates (M. 5) 34

7 The Risk and Term Structure of Interest Rates (M. 6) 43

8 The Stock Market, the Theory of Rational Expectations, and the

E¢cient Market Hypothesis (M. 7) 49

9 Capital Asset Pricing and Arbitrage Pricing Theory (BKM 7.) 55

III Futures and Options Markets 63

10 Mechanics of Futures Markets (H.2) 63

11 Hedging Strategies Using Futures (H. 3) 68

12 Determination of Forward and Futures Prices (H. 5) 75

13 Swaps (H. 7) 80

14 Credit Derivatives (H. 21) 88

15 Mechanics of Options Markets (H. 8) 93

16 Trading Strategies Involving Options (H. 10) 98

17 Introduction to Binomial Trees (H. 11) 105

1

18 Valuing Stock Options:The Black-Scholes Model (H. 12) 114

19 The Greek Letters (H. 15) 119

IV International Finance and Monetary Policy 124

20 The Foreign Exchange Market (M. 17) 124

21 The International Financial System (M. 18) 129

2

Part I

Introduction

1 Why Study Money, Banking, and Financial Markets?

(M. 1)

« Why Study Money, Banking, and Financial Markets

– To examine how …nancial markets such as bond, stock and foreign ex-

change markets work

– To examine how …nancial institutions such as banks and insurance com-

panies work

– To examine the role of money in the economy

« Financial Markets

– Markets in which funds are transferred from people who have an excess

of available funds to people who have a shortage of funds

« The Bond Market and Interest Rates

– A security (…nancial instrument) is a claim on the issuer’s future income

or assets

– A bond is a debt security that promises to make payments periodically

for a speci…ed period of time

– An interest rate is the cost of borrowing or the price paid for the rental

of funds

<Figure> Interest Rates on Selected Bonds (’01.1–’08.6). Bank of Korea (BOK)

3

« The Stock Market

– Common stock represents a share of ownership in a corporation

– A share of stock is a claim on the earnings and assets of the corporation

<Figure> Monthly Average Stock Prices (’93.1–’08.6). BOK

« The Foreign Exchange Market

– The foreign exchange market is where funds are converted from one cur-

rency into another

– The foreign exchange rate is the price of one currency in terms of another

currency

– The foreign exchange market determines the foreign exchange rate

<Figure> Monthly average exchange rate (KRW/Foreign). BOK

« Money and Business Cycles

– Evidence suggests that money plays an important role in generating busi-

ness cycles

– Recessions (unemployment) and booms (in‡ation) a¤ect all of us

4

– Monetary Theory ties changes in the money supply to changes in aggre-

gate economic activity and the price level

« Money and In‡ation

– The aggregate price level is the average price of goods and services in an

economy

– A continual rise in the price level (in‡ation) a¤ects all economic players

– Data shows a connection between the money supply and the price level

<Figure> Aggregate Price Level and Money Supply in Korea

5

« Money and Interest Rates

– Interest rates are the price of money

« Monetary and Fiscal Policy

– Monetary policy is the management of the money supply and interest

rates

– Conducted in Korea by the Bank of Korea (BOK)

« Fiscal policy is government spending and taxation

– Budget de…cit is the excess of expenditures over revenues for a particular

year

– Budget surplus is the excess of revenues over expenditures for a particular

year

– Any de…cit must be …nanced by borrowing

« How We Will Study Money, Banking, and Financial Markets

– A simpli…ed approach to the demand for assets

– The concept of equilibrium

– Basic supply and demand to explain behavior in …nancial markets

– The search for pro…ts

– An approach to …nancial structure based on transaction costs and asym-

metric information

– Aggregate supply and demand analysis

6

Appedix to Chapter 1: De…ning Aggregate Output, Income,

the Price Level, and the In‡ation Rate

Aggregate Output and Aggregate Income

« Aggregate Output

– Gross Domestic Product (GDP) = market value of all …nal goods and

services produced in the domestic economy during a particular year

« Aggregate Income

– Total income of the factors of production (land, capital, labor) during a

particular year

« Distinction Between Nominal and Real

– Nominal = values measured using current prices

– Real = quantities measured with constant prices

– Real vs. nominal wages, real vs. nominal GDP

– An example:

+ Prices and Quantities in 2000 and 2004

Quantities of Prices of Quantities of Prices of

pizzas pizzas calzones calzones

2000 10 $10 15 $5

2004 20 $12 30 $6

Nominal GDP

2000 : (10)($10) + (15)($5) = $175

2004 : (20)($12) + (30)($6) = $420

Real GDP (base year: 2000)

2000 : (10)($10) + (15)($5) = $175

2004 : (20)($10) + (30)($5) = $350

7

Aggregate Price Level

« Aggregate Price Level is a measure of average prices in the economy

« One measure of the price level is the GDP de‡ator

GDP de‡ator =

nominal GDP

real GDP

« Another measure is the Consumer Price Index (CPI)

– The CPI is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid

by urban consumers for a market basket of goods and services

Growth Rates and the In‡ation Rate

« A growth rate is the percentage change in a variable

Growth rate(%) =

r

t

÷r

t1

r

t1

100

GDP growth rate =

$9.5 trillion – $9 trillion

$9 trillion

100 = 5.6%

In‡ation rate =

113 ÷111

111

100 = 1.8%

8

2 Introduction to Derivatives Markets (H. 1)

« The Nature of Derivatives

– A derivative is an instrument whose value depends on the values of other

more basic underlying variables

« Examples of Derivatives

– Futures Contracts

– Forward Contracts

– Swaps

– Options

« Ways Derivatives are Used

– To hedge risks

– To speculate (take a view on the future direction of the market)

– To lock in an arbitrage pro…t

– To change the nature of a liability

– To change the nature of an investment without incurring the costs of

selling one portfolio and buying another

« Futures Contracts

– A futures contract is an agreement to buy or sell an asset at a certain

time in the future for a certain price

– By contrast in a spot contract there is an agreement to buy or sell the

asset immediately (or within a very short period of time)

« Exchanges Trading Futures

– KRX (Korea Exchange)

– Chicago Board of Trade, Chicago Mercantile Exchange

– Euronext, Eurex

– BM&F (Sao Paulo, Brazil) and many more

« Futures Price

9

– The futures prices for a particular contract is the price at which you

agree to buy or sell

– It is determined by supply and demand in the same way as a spot price

« Terminology

– The party that has agreed to buy has a long position

– The party that has agreed to sell has a short position

« Example

– January: an investor enters into a long futures contract on COMEX to

buy 100 oz of gold @ $600 in April

– April: the price of gold $615 per oz.

– What is the investor’s pro…t?

« Over-the Counter Markets

– The over-the counter market is an important alternative to exchanges

– It is a telephone and computer-linked network of dealers who do not

physically meet

– Trades are usually between …nancial institutions, corporate treasurers,

and fund managers

« Size of OTC and Exchange Markets

« Forward Contracts

10

– Forward contracts are similar to futures except that they trade in the

over-the-counter market

– Forward contracts are popular on currencies and interest rates

« Options

– A call option is an option to buy a certain asset by a certain date for a

certain price (the strike price)

– A put option is an option to sell a certain asset by a certain date for a

certain price (the strike price)

« American vs European Options

– An American option can be exercised at any time during its life

– A European option can be exercised only at maturity

« Options vs Futures/Forwards

– A futures/forward contract gives the holder the obligation to buy or sell

at a certain price

– An option gives the holder the right to buy or sell at a certain price

« Three Reasons for Trading Derivatives: Hedging, Speculation, and Arbitrage

– Hedge funds trade derivatives for all three reasons

– When a trader has a mandate to use derivatives for hedging or arbitrage,

but then switches to speculation, large losses can result

« Hedging Examples

– A US company will pay £10 million for imports from Britain in 3 months

and decides to hedge using a long position in a forward contract

– An investor owns 1,000 Microsoft shares currently worth $28 per share.

A two-month put with a strike price of $27.50 costs $1. The investor

decides to hedge by buying 10 contracts

11

+ Value of Microsoft Shares with and without Hedging

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

20 25 30 35 40

Stock Price ($)

Value of

Holding ($)

No Hedging

Hedging

« Speculation Example

– An investor with $2,000 to invest feels that Amazon.com’s stock price

will increase over the next 2 months. The current stock price is $20 and

the price of a 2-month call option with a strike of $22.50 is $1

– What are the alternative strategies?

+ Purchase 100 shares of the stock

– Options like futures requires only a small amount of cash to be deposited

by the speculator in what is termed a margin account

+ The futures and options market allows speculator to obtain leverage

« Arbitrage Example

– Arbitrage involves locking in a riskless pro…t by simultaneously entering

into transactions in two or more markets

– A stock price is quoted as £100 in London and $182 in New York

– The current exchange rate is 1.8500

– What is the arbitrage opportunity with 100 shares of the stocks (assum-

ing zero transaction cost)?

+ Buys 100 shares in New York and sells the shares in London

+ Converts the sale proceeds from pound to dollars

+ This leads to a pro…t of

[$185 ÷$182] 100 = $300

12

« Gold: An Arbitrage Opportunity?

– Suppose that:

+ The spot price of gold is US$600

+ The quoted 1-year futures price of gold is US$650

+ The 1-year US$ interest rate is 5% per annum

+ No income or storage costs for gold

– Is there an arbitrage opportunity?

« The Futures Price of Gold

– If the spot price of gold is o and the futures price is for a contract

deliverable in 1 years is 1, then

1 = o(1 + :)

T

where : is the 1-year (domestic currency) risk-free rate of interest.

– In our examples, o = 600, 1 = 1, and : = 0.05 so that

1 = 600(1 + 0.05) = 630

« Oil: An Arbitrage Opportunity?

– Suppose that:

+ The spot price of oil is US$70

+ The quoted 1-year futures price of oil is US$80

+ The 1-year US$ interest rate is 5% per annum

+ The storage costs of oil are 2% per annum

– Is there an arbitrage opportunity?

13

14

15

3 An Overview of the Financial System (M. 2)

« Function of Financial Markets

– Perform the essential function of channeling funds from economic players

that have saved surplus funds to those that have a shortage of funds

– Promotes economic e¢ciency by producing an e¢cient allocation of cap-

ital, which increases production

– Directly improve the well-being of consumers by allowing them to time

purchases better

« Structure of Financial Markets

– Debt and Equity Markets

+ Debt: bond, mortgage

In terms of maturity: short-term debt (less than a year), long-

term debt (ten years or longer)

+ Equity: residual claim

– Primary and Secondary Markets

+ Investment Banks underwrite securities in primary markets

+ Brokers and dealers work in secondary markets

Brokers: match buyers with sellers of securities

Dealers: link buyers and sellers by buying and selling securities

at stated prices

– Exchanges and Over-the-Counter (OTC) Markets

16

– Money and Capital Markets

+ Money markets deal in short-term debt instruments

+ Capital markets deal in longer-term debt and equity instruments

17

18

« Internationalization of Financial Markets

– Foreign Bonds—sold in a foreign country and denominated in that coun-

try’s currency

– Eurobond—bond denominated in a currency other than that of the coun-

try in which it is sold

– Eurocurrencies—foreign currencies deposited in banks outside the home

country

+ Eurodollars—U.S. dollars deposited in foreign banks outside the U.S.

or in foreign branches of U.S. banks

– World Stock Markets

« Function of Financial Intermediaries: Indirect Finance

– Lower transaction costs

+ Economies of scale

+ Liquidity services

– Reduce Risk

+ Risk Sharing (Asset Transformation)

+ Diversi…cation

– Asymmetric Information

+ Adverse Selection (before the transaction) –more likely to select risky

borrower

+ Moral Hazard (after the transaction) – less likely borrower will repay

loan

19

20

21

22

« Regulation of the Financial System

– To increase the information available to investors:

+ Reduce adverse selection and moral hazard problems

+ Reduce insider trading

– To ensure the soundness of …nancial intermediaries:

+ Restrictions on entry

+ Disclosure

+ Restrictions on Assets and Activities

+ Deposit Insurance

+ Limits on Competition

+ Restrictions on Interest Rates

23

24

4 What Is Money? (M. 3)

« Meaning of Money

– Money (money supply) – anything that is generally accepted in payment

for goods or services or in the repayment of debts; a stock concept

– Wealth – the total collection of pieces of property that serve to store

value

– Income – ‡ow of earnings per unit of time

« Functions of Money

– Medium of Exchange – promotes economic e¢ciency by minimizing the

time spent in exchanging goods and services

+ Must be easily standardized

+ Must be widely accepted

+ Must be divisible

+ Must be easy to carry

+ Must not deteriorate quickly

– Unit of Account – used to measure value in the economy

– Store of Value – used to save purchasing power; most liquid of all assets

but loses value during in‡ation

« Evolution of the Payments System

– Commodity Money

+ Money made up of precious metals or another valuable commodity

– Fiat Money

+ Currency decreed by government as legal tender (meaning that legally

it must be accepted as payment for debts) but not convertible into

coins or precious metal

– Checks

– Electronic Payment

– E-Money

25

« How Reliable are the Money Data?

– Revisions are issued because:

+ Small depository institutions report infrequently

+ Adjustments must be made for seasonal variation

– We probably should not pay much attention to short-run movements in

the money supply numbers, but should be concerned only with longer-

run movements

26

Part II

Financial Markets

5 Understanding Interest Rates (M. 4)

« Present Value

– A dollar paid to you one year from now is less valuable than a dollar

paid to you today

« Discounting the Future

– Let i = 0.1.

– In one year $100(1 + 0.1) = $110. In two years $110(1 + 0.1) = $121

or 100 (1 + 0.1)

2

– In : years, the present value of $100 is equal to $100(1 + i)

n

. Likewise,

the future value of $100 in : years is equal to

$100

(1+i)

n (< $100) today.

« Simple Present Value

– PV = today’s (present) value

– CF = future cash ‡ow (payment) (in n years)

– i = interest rate

1\ =

C1

(1 + i)

n

« In 1626, Manhattan was sold by the Indians to the Dutch at $24 dollars

Example 1 If we assume that interest rate is 10% and has not been changed

over time, then $24 is worth (in 2008):

$24 (1.10)

20041626

= $24 (1.10)

382

· $155. 674. 318. 134. 231. 000!!

« Four Types of Credit Market Instruments

– Simple Loan

– Fixed Payment Loan

– Coupon Bond

27

– Discount Bond

« Yield to Maturity

– The interest rate that equates the present value of cash ‡ow payments

received from a debt instrument with its value today

« Simple Loan – Yield to Maturity

– PV = amount borrowed = $100

– CF = cash ‡ow in one year = $110

– n = number of years = 1

$100 =

$110

(1 + i)

1

=(1 + i) =

110

100

= 1.1 =i = 0.1 = 10%

For simple loans, the simple interest rate equals the yield to maturity

« Fixed Payment Loan – Yield to Maturity

– The same cash ‡ow every period throughout the life of the loan

– LV = loan value

– FP = …xed yearly payment (assuming FP is paid from the next year)

– n= years to maturity

1\ =

11

1 + i

+

11

(1 + i)

2

+

11

(1 + i)

3

+ +

11

(1 + i)

n

« Coupon Bond –Yield to Maturity

– Using the same strategy used for the …xed-payment loan

+ P = price of coupon bond

+ C = yearly coupon payment (assuming C is paid from the next year)

+ F = face value of the bond

+ n = years to maturity

+ n= number of years until maturity

1 =

C

1 + i

+

C

(1 + i)

2

+

C

(1 + i)

3

+ +

C + 1

(1 + i)

n

28

– When the coupon bond is priced at its face value, the yield to maturity

equals the coupon rate

– The price of a coupon bond and the yield to maturity are negatively

related

– The yield to maturity is greater than the coupon rate when the bond

price is below its face value

« Consol or Perpetuity

– A bond with no maturity date that does not repay principal but pays

…xed coupon payments forever

Remark 2 (Math Review) Let

o

n

=c + c:

1

+ c:

2

+ c:

3

+ + c:

n1

. ¸¸ .

total number of summation = n

(1)

:o

n

=0 +c:

1

+ c:

2

+ c:

3

+ + c:

n1

+ c:

n

. (2)

Subtract (2) from (1) ((2) ÷(1))to get

(1 ÷:) o

n

= c (1 ÷:

n

) =o

n

=

c (1 ÷:

n

)

(1 ÷:)

(3)

If [:[ < 1, then lim

n!1

:

n

= 0, and we have

lim

n!1

o

n

=

c

(1 ÷:)

29

– The price of console is calculated as

1

c

=

C

(1 + i

c

)

+

C

(1 + i

c

)

2

+ +

C

(1 + i

c

)

1

=

a

¸ .. ¸

C

1 + i

c

_

_

_

_

1 ÷

1

1 + i

c

. ¸¸ .

r

_

_

_

_

=

C

1+i

c

1+i

c

1

1+i

c

=

C

i

c

where 1

c

is the price of console, C is the yearly interest payment, i

c

is

the yield to maturity.

« Discount Bond - Yield to Maturity

– For any one year discount bond

1 =

1

(1 + i)

1

÷(1 + i) =

1

1

÷i =

1 ÷1

1

where F is the face value of the discount bond, P is the current price of

the discount bond

– The yield to maturity equals the increase in price over the year divided

by the initial price. As with a coupon bond, the yield to the maturity is

negatively related to the current bond price

« Yield on a Discount Basis

– Less accurate but less di¢cult to claculate

i

db

=

1 ÷1

1

360

days to maturity

i

db

=yield on a discount basis

1 =face value of the Treasury bill (discount bond)

1 =purchase price of the discount bond

– Uses the percentage gain on the face value

– Puts the yield on a annual basis using 360 instead of 365 days

– Always understates the yields to maturity (relative to compounding

method)

30

+ The understatement becomes more severe the longer the maturity

« Following the Financial News: Bond Prices and Interest Rates

– Colons in bid-and-asked quotes represent 32nds; 101:01 means 101 1/32

– Net changes in quotes in hundredths, quoted on terms of a rate of dis-

count

« Rate of Return

– The payment to the owner plus the change in value expressed as a fraction

of the purchase price

Example 3 (One period case) Let

1

t

=

C

(1 + 11)

+

1

t+1

(1 + 11)

31

Multiply both sides by

(1+RR)

P

t

to get

(1 + 11) =

C

1

t

+

1

t+1

1

t

÷11 =

C

1

t

+

1

t+1

÷1

t

1

t

11=return from holding bond from t to t + 1

1

t

(1

t+1

) =price of bond at time t (t + 1)

C =coupon payment

C

1

t

=current yield (= i

c

)

1

t+1

÷1

t

1

t

=rate of capital gain

« Rate of Return and Interest Rates (yield to maturity)

– The return equals the yield to maturity only if the holding period equals

the time to maturity

– A rise in interest rates is associated with a fall in bond prices, resulting

in a capital loss if time to maturity is longer than the holding period

– The more distant a bond’s maturity, the greater the size of the percentage

price change associated with an interest-rate change

– The more distant a bond’s maturity, the lower the rate of return the

occurs as a result of an increase in the interest rate

– Even if a bond has a substantial initial interest rate, its return can be

negative if interest rates rise

« Interest-Rate Risk

– Prices and returns for long-term bonds are more volatile than those for

shorter-term bonds

32

– There is no interest-rate risk for any bond whose time to maturity matches

the holding period

« Real and Nominal Interest Rates

– Nominal interest rate makes no allowance for in‡ation

– Real interest rate is adjusted for changes in price level so it more accu-

rately re‡ects the cost of borrowing

– Ex ante real interest rate is adjusted for expected changes in the price

level

– Ex post real interest rate is adjusted for actual changes in the price level

« Fisher Equation

– When the real interest rate is low, there are greater incentives to borrow

and fewer incentives to lend

– The real interest rate is a better indicator of the incentives to borrow

and lend

i =: + :

e

i =nominal interest rate

: =real interest rate

:

e

=expected in‡ation rate

33

« Fisher-E¤ect

– The tendency for nominal interest rates to be high when in‡ation is high

and low when in‡ation is low

6 The Behavior of Interest Rates (M. 5)

« Determining the Quantity Demanded of an Asset

– Wealth –the total resources owned by the individual, including all assets

– Expected Return – the return expected over the next period on one asset

relative to alternative assets

– Risk – the degree of uncertainty associated with the return on one asset

relative to alternative assets

– Liquidity – the ease and speed with which an asset can be turned into

cash relative to alternative assets

« Theory of Asset Demand

– Holding all other factors constant (ceteris paribus):

+ The quantity demanded of an asset is positively related to wealth

+ The quantity demanded of an asset is positively related to its ex-

pected return relative to alternative assets

+ The quantity demanded of an asset is negatively related to the risk

of its returns relative to alternative assets

+ The quantity demanded of an asset is positively related to its liquid-

ity relative to alternative assets

« Supply and Demand for Bonds

– At lower prices (higher interest rates), ceteris paribus, the quantity de-

manded of bonds is higher – an inverse relationship

– At lower prices (higher interest rates), ceteris paribus, the quantity sup-

plied of bonds is lower – a positive relationship

34

« Market Equilibrium

– Occurs when the amount that people are willing to buy (demand) equals

the amount that people are willing to sell (supply) at a given price

« Shifts in the Demand for Bonds

– Wealth – in an expansion with growing wealth, the demand curve for

bonds shifts to the right

– Expected Returns – higher expected interest rates in the future lower

the expected return for long-term bonds, shifting the demand curve to

the left

– Expected In‡ation – an increase in the expected rate of in‡ations lowers

the expected return for bonds, causing the demand curve to shift to the

left

– Risk – an increase in the riskiness of bonds causes the demand curve to

shift to the left

– Liquidity – increased liquidity of bonds results in the demand curve shift-

ing right

« Shifts in the Supply of Bonds

– Expected pro…tability of investment opportunities – in an expansion, the

supply curve shifts to the right

35

– Expected in‡ation – an increase in expected in‡ation shifts the supply

curve for bonds to the right

– Government budget – increased budget de…cits shift the supply curve to

the right

« The Fisher E¤ect: the tendency for nominal interest rates to be high when

in‡ation is high and low when in‡ation is low

– When expected in‡ation rises, the expected return on bonds relative to

real assets falls

+ As a result, the demand for bonds falls

– The real cost of borrowing declines

+ The supply curve shifts to the right

36

« Changes in the Interest Rate Due to a Business Cycle Expansion

– Depending on whether the supply curve shifts more than the demand

curve, or vice versa, the new equilibrium interest rate can either rise or

fall

« The Liquidity Preference Framework

– Keynesian model that determines the equilibrium interest rate in terms

of the supply and the demand for money

– There are two main categories of assets that people use to store their

wealth: money and bonds

– Total wealth of the economy

1

s

+ `

s

= 1

d

+ `

d

÷1

s

÷1

d

= `

d

÷`

s

37

If the market for money is in equilibrium

_

`

s

= `

d

_

, then the bond

market is also in equilibrium

_

1

s

= 1

d

_

« Shifts in the Demand for Money

– Income E¤ect – a higher level of income causes the demand for money at

each interest rate to increase and the demand curve to shift to the right

– Price-Level E¤ect – a rise in the price level causes the demand for money

at each interest rate to increase and the demand curve to shift to the

right

« Shifts in the Supply of Money

– Assume that the supply of money is controlled by the central bank

– An increase in the money supply engineered by the Federal Reserve will

shift the supply curve for money to the right

38

« Everything Else Remaining Equal?

– Liquidity preference framework leads to the conclusion that an increase

in the money supply will lower interest rates – the liquidity e¤ect

– Income e¤ect of an increase in the money supply …nds interest rates rising

+ Because increasing the money supply is an expansionary in‡uence

on the economy, it should raise national income and wealth

+ Then interest rates will rise due to a shift upward in money demand

– Price-Level e¤ect predicts an increase in the money supply leads to a rise

in interest rates in response to the rise in the price level

39

+ A rise in price level force people to have more money causing the

money demand curve to shift upward. It will cause the interest rate

to rise

– Expected-In‡ation e¤ect shows an increase in interest rates because an

increase in the money supply may lead people to expect a higher price

level in the future

+ An increase in the money supply may lead people to expect a higher

price level in the future–and hence the expected in‡ation rate will

be higher

+ Then this increase in in‡ation will lead to a higher level of interest

rates

M

D

M

0

S

M

0

i

1

i

1

S

M

(A) Liquidity

Effect

i

M

0

D

M

0

S

M

0

i

1

i

1

S

M

(B) Income Effect,

Price-level Effect

i

1

D

M

(1)

(2)

« Price-Level E¤ect and Expected-In‡ation E¤ect

– A one time increase in the money supply will cause prices to rise to a

permanently higher level by the end of the year. The interest rate will

rise via the increased prices

– Price-level e¤ect remains even after prices have stopped rising.

– A rising price level will raise interest rates because people will expect

in‡ation to be higher over the course of the year. When the price level

stops rising, expectations of in‡ation will return to zero

– Expected-in‡ation e¤ect persists only as long as the price level continues

to rise

« Does a Higher Rate of Growth of the Money Supply Lower Interest rates?

40

– Liquidity e¤ect indicates that a higher rate of money growth will cause

a decline in interest rates

– In contrast, the income, price-level, and expected-in‡ation e¤ects indi-

cate that interest rates will rise when money growth is higher

– Which of these e¤ects are largest, and how quickly do the take e¤ects?

+ Generally, the liquidity e¤ect from the greater money growth takes

e¤ect immediately because the rising money supply leads to an im-

mediate decline in the equilibrium interest rate

+ The income and price-level e¤ects take time to work

+ The expected-in‡ation e¤ect can be slowor fast, depending on whether

people adjust their expectations of in‡ation slowly or quickly when

the money growth rate is increased

41

42

7 The Risk and Term Structure of Interest Rates (M. 6)

« Risk Structure of Interest Rates

– Default risk – occurs when the issuer of the bond is unable or unwilling

to make interest payments or pay o¤ the face value

+ U.S. T-bonds are considered default free

+ Risk premium – the spread between the interest rates on bonds with

default risk and the interest rates on T-bonds

– Liquidity – the ease with which an asset can be converted into cash

– Income tax considerations

43

« Term Structure of Interest Rates

– Bonds with identical risk, liquidity, and tax characteristics may have

di¤erent interest rates because the time remaining to maturity is di¤erent

– Yield curve – a plot of the yield on bonds with di¤ering terms to maturity

but the same risk, liquidity and tax considerations

+ Upward-sloping: long-term rates are above short-term rates

+ Flat" short- and long-term rates are the same

+ Inverted: long-term rates are below short-term rates

« Facts that Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates Must Explain

– Interest rates on bonds of di¤erent maturities move together over time

– When short-term interest rates are low, yield curves are more likely to

have an upward slope; when short-term rates are high, yield curves are

more likely to slope downward and be inverted

– Yield curves almost always slope upward

« Three Theories to Explain the Three Facts

– Expectations theory explains the …rst two facts but not the third

– Segmented markets theory explains fact three but not the …rst two

– Liquidity premium theory combines the two theories to explain all three

facts

44

« Expectations Theory

– The interest rate on a long-term bond will equal an average of the short-

term interest rates that people expect to occur over the life of the long-

term bond

– Buyers of bonds do not prefer bonds of one maturity over another; they

will not hold any quantity of a bond if its expected return is less than

that of another bond with a di¤erent maturity

– Bonds like these are said to be perfect substitutes

« Expectations Theory – Example

– Let the current rate on one-year bond be 6%

– You expect the interest rate on a one-year bond to be 8% next year

– Then the expected return for buying two one-year bonds averages (6%

+ 8%)/2 = 7%

– The interest rate on a two-year bond must be 7% for you to be willing

to purchase it

« Expectations Theory – In General

– Let i

t

is today’s interest rate on a one-period bond, i

2t

is today’s interest

on the two-period bond, i

e

t+1

is interest rate on a one-period bond for

next period

– Expected return over the two periods from investing $1 in the two-period

bond and holding it for the two periods is

(1 + i

2t

) (1 +i

2t

) ÷1 = 1 + 2i

2t

+ (i

2t

)

2

÷1 = 2i

2t

+ (i

2t

)

2

Since (i

2t

)

2

is small, the expected return for holding the two-period bonds

for two periods is 2i

2t

– If two one-period bonds are bought with $1 investment, the expected

return is

(1 + i

t

)

_

1 + i

e

t+1

_

÷1 =1 + i

t

+ i

e

t+1

+ (i

t

)

_

i

e

t+1

_

÷1

=i

t

+ i

e

t+1

+ (i

t

)

_

i

e

t+1

_

Since (i

t

)

_

i

e

t+1

_

is small, simplifying we get i

t

+ i

e

t+1

45

– Both bonds will be held only if the expected returns are equal

2i

2t

= i

t

+ i

e

t+1

÷i

2t

=

i

t

+ i

e

t+1

2

The two-period rate must equal the average of the two one-period rates

– For bonds with longer maturities

i

nt

=

i

t

+ i

e

t+1

+ i

e

t+2

+ + i

e

t+(n1)

:

The :-period interest rate equal the average of the one-period interest

expected to occur over the :-period life of the bond

« Expectations Theory

– Explains why the term structure of interest rates changes at di¤erent

times

– Explains why interest rates on bonds with di¤erent maturities move to-

gether over time (fact 1)

– Explains why yield curves tend to slope up when short-term rates are

low and slope down when short-term rates are high (fact 2)

– Cannot explain why yield curves usually slope upward (fact 3)

« Segmented Markets Theory

– Bonds of di¤erent maturities are not substitutes at all

– The interest rate for each bond with a di¤erent maturity is determined

by the demand for and supply of that bond

– Investors have preferences for bonds of one maturity over another

– If investors have short desired holding periods and generally prefer bonds

with shorter maturities that have less interest-rate risk, then this explains

why yield curves usually slope upward (fact 3)

« Liquidity Premium & Preferred Habitat Theories

– The interest rate on a long-term bond will equal an average of short-term

interest rates expected to occur over the life of the long-term bond plus

a liquidity premium that responds to supply and demand conditions for

that bond

46

– Bonds of di¤erent maturities are substitutes but not perfect substitutes

« Liquidity Premium Theory

i

nt

=

i

t

+ i

e

t+1

+ i

e

t+2

+ + i

e

t+(n1)

:

+ |

nt

where |

nt

is the liquidity premium for the :-period bond at time t. |

nt

is

always positive and rise with term to maturity

« Preferred Habitat Theory

– Investors have a preference for bonds of one maturity over another

– They will be willing to buy bonds of di¤erent maturities only if they earn

a somewhat higher expected return

– Investors are likely to prefer short-term bonds over longer-term bonds

« Liquidity Premium and Preferred Habitat Theories, Explanation of the Facts

– Interest rates on di¤erent maturity bonds move together over time; ex-

plained by the …rst term in the equation

– Yield curves tend to slope upward when short-term rates are low and to

be inverted when short-term rates are high; explained by the liquidity

premium term in the …rst case and by a low expected average in the

second case

– Yield curves typically slope upward; explained by a larger liquidity pre-

47

mium as the term to maturity lengthens

48

8 The Stock Market, the Theory of Rational Expectations,

and the E¢cient Market Hypothesis (M. 7)

« One-Period Valuation Model

1

0

=

1

1

(1 + /

e

)

1

+

1

1

(1 + /

e

)

where 1

0

is the current price of the stock, 1

1

is the dividend paid at the end

of year 1, /

e

is the required return on investment in equity, and 1

1

is the sale

price of the stock at the end of the …rst period

Problem 4 Should the required return on investment be greater than the in-

terest rate? Why?

« Generalized Dividend Valuation Model

– The value of stock today is the present value of all future cash ‡ows

1

0

=

1

1

(1 + /

e

)

1

+

1

2

(1 + /

e

)

2

+ +

1

n

(1 + /

e

)

n

+

1

n

(1 + /

e

)

n

If 1

n

is far in the future, it will not a¤ect 1

0

. Therefore,

lim

n!1

1

0

=

n

t=1

1

t

(1 + /

e

)

n

The price of the stock is determined only by the present value of the

future dividend stream

« Gordon Growth Model

– Dividends assumed to continue growing at a constant rate forever

– The growth rate is assumed to be less than the required return on equity

(why?)

1

0

=

1

0

(1 + q)

(/

e

÷q)

=

1

1

(/

e

÷q)

where 1

0

is the most recent dividend paid, q is the expected growth rate

in dividends, /

e

is the required return in equity

49

Proof. Write the genearalized stock valuation equation as

1

0

=

1

1

(1 + /

e

)

1

+

1

2

(1 + /

e

)

2

+ +

1

n1

(1 + /

e

)

n1

=

1

0

(1 + q)

1

(1 + /

e

)

1

+

1

0

(1 + q)

2

(1 + /

e

)

2

+ +

1

0

(1 + q)

n1

(1 + /

e

)

n1

=1

0

_

_

1 + q

1 + /

e

_

+

_

1 + q

1 + /

e

_

2

+ +

_

1 + q

1 + /

e

_

n1

_

(1)

Mitiply both sides of (1) by

_

1+g

1+k

e

_

to get

_

1 + q

1 + /

e

_

1

0

= 1

0

_

0 +

_

1 + q

1 + /

e

_

2

+

_

1 + q

1 + /

e

_

3

+ +

_

1 + q

1 + /

e

_

n1

+

_

1 + q

1 + /

e

_

n

_

(2)

Subtract (2) from (1) to get

1

0

÷

_

1 + q

1 + /

e

_

1

0

=1

0

__

1 + q

1 + /

e

_

÷

_

1 + q

1 + /

e

_

n

_

1

0

_

/

e

÷q

1 + /

e

_

=1

0

__

1 + q

1 + /

e

_

÷

_

1 + q

1 + /

e

_

n

_

If : ÷·,

_

1+g

1+k

e

_

n

÷0 (because /

e

q), and we have

1

0

_

/

e

÷q

1 + /

e

_

= 1

0

_

1 + q

1 + /

e

_

÷1

0

=

1

0

(1 + q)

/

e

÷q

=

1

1

/

e

÷q

« How the Market Sets Prices

– The price is set by the buyer willing to pay the highest price

– The market price will be set by the buyer who can take best advantage

of the asset

– Superior information about an asset can increase its value by reducing

its risk

« Adaptive vs. Rational Expectation

50

– Rational expectation implies

1 =1

+ c

1 (1) =1

e

= 1

+ 1 (c) = 1

.

– On the other hand, adaptive expectation implies

1

t

=

1

i=1

`

i

1

ti

+ c

t

. 0 < ` < 1

1 (1

t

) =1

e

t

=

1

i=1

`

i

1

ti

.

« Theory of Rational Expectations

– Expectations will be identical to optimal forecasts using all available

information

– Even though a rational expectation equals the optimal forecast using

all available information, a prediction based on it may not always be

perfectly accurate

+ It takes too much e¤ort to make the expectation the best guess

possible

+ Best guess will not be accurate because predictor is unaware of some

relevant information

« Formal Statement of the Theory of Rational Expectations

A

e

= A

of

where A

e

is the expectation of the variable that is being forecast, A

of

is the

optimal forecast using all available information

« Implications

– If there is a change in the way a variable moves, the way in which ex-

pectations of the variable are formed will change as well

– The forecast errors of expectations will, on average, be zero and cannot

be predicted ahead of time

« E¢cient Markets – Application of Rational Expectations

51

– Recall that the rate of return from hodling a security equals the sum of

the capital gain on security, plus any cash payment divided by the initial

purchase price of the security

1 =

1

t+1

÷1

t

+ C

1

t

where 1

t

(1

t+1

) is the price of the security at time t (t + 1), the beginning

(end) of the holding period, C is the cas payment (coupon or dividend)

made during the holding period

– At the beginning of the holding period, we know 1

t

and C. 1

t+1

is

unknown and we must form an expectation of it. The expected return

then is

1

e

=

1

e

t+1

÷1

t

+ C

1

t

Expectations of future prices are equal to optimal forecasts using all

currently available information so

1

e

t+1

= 1

of

t+1

=1

e

= 1

of

Supply and demand analysis states 1

e

will be equal the equilibrium

return 1

so

1

of

= 1

« E¢cient Markets

– Current prices in a …nancial market will be set so that the optimal fore-

cast of a security’s return using all available information equals the se-

curity’s equilibrium return

– In an e¢cient market, a security’s price fully re‡ects all available infor-

mation

« Rationale

1

of

1

=1

t

¦=1

of

|; 1

of

< 1

=1

t

|=1

of

¦

until

1

of

=1

**In an e¢cient market, all unexploited pro…t opportunities will be eliminated
**

« Evidence in Favor of Market E¢ciency

52

– Having performed well in the past does not indicate that an investment

advisor or a mutual fund will perform well in the future

– If information is already publicly available, a positive announcement does

not, on average, cause stock prices to rise

– Stock prices follow a random walk

+ Future changes in stock prices should, for all practical purposes, be

unpredictatble. Formally,

j

t

=j

t1

+ n

t

or j

t

÷j

t1

= j

t

= n

t

n

t

~i.i.d ` (0. 1)

The change in stock price is randomly determined.

– Technical analysis cannot successfully predict changes in stock prices

« Evidence Against Market E¢ciency

– Small-…rm e¤ect

+ Small …rms earned abnormally high returns over long periods of

time, even when the greater risk for these …rms have been taken into

account

– January E¤ect

+ Abnormal price rise from December to January that is predictable

and hence inconsistent with random-walk behavior

– Market Overreaction

– Excessive Volatility

– Mean Reversion

– Newinformation is not always immediately incorporated into stock prices

« Application Investing in the Stock Market

– Recommendations from investment advisors cannot help us outperform

the market

– A hot tip is probably information already contained in the price of the

stock

– Stock prices respond to announcements only when the information is new

and unexpected

53

– A “buy and hold” strategy is the most sensible strategy for the small

investor

« Behavioral Finance

– The lack of short selling (causing over-priced stocks) may be explained

by loss aversion

– The large trading volume may be explained by investor overcon…dence

– Stock market bubbles may be explained by overcon…dence and social

contagion

54

9 Capital Asset Pricing and Arbitrage Pricing Theory (BKM

7.)

« Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)

– Equilibrium model that underlies all modern …nancial theory

– Derived using principles of diversi…cation with simpli…ed assumptions

– Markowitz, Sharpe, Lintner and Mossin are researchers credited with its

development

« Assumptions

– Individual investors are price takers

– Single-period investment horizon

– Investments are limited to traded …nancial assets

– No taxes, and transaction costs (frictionless market)

– Information is costless and available to all investors

– Investors are rational mean-variance optimizers

– Homogeneous expectations

« Resulting Equilibrium Conditions

– All investors will hold the same portfolio for risky assets – market port-

folio

– Market portfolio contains all securities and the proportion of each secu-

rity is its market value as a percentage of total market value

– Risk premium on the market depends on the average risk aversion of all

market participants

– Risk premium on an individual security is a function of its covariance

with the market

« CAPM’s Expected Return-Beta Relationship

1 (:

i

) ÷:

f

= ,

i

[1 (:

M

) ÷:

f

]

55

where

1 (:

i

) : expected return on stock i

:

f

: return from a risk-free asset

1 (:

M

) : expected return on market portfolio

,

i

: sensitivity of stock i on market risk premium

« The E¢cient Frontier and the Capital Market Line

**– E¢cient Frontier: Graph representing a set of portfolios that maximizes
**

expected return at each level of portfolio risk.

– Capital Allocation Line (CAL): Plot of risk-return combinations avail-

able by varying portfolio allocation between a risk-free asset and a risky

portfolio.

– Capital Market Line (CML): The capital allocation line using the market

index portfolio as the risky asset.

Aggressive

Portfolio

Market

Portfolio

Conservative

Portfolio

σ σ

M

( ) r E

Efficient

Frontier

r

f

( ) r

M

E

( )

Capital Market

Line CML

« Expected Return and Risk on Individual Securities

**If all investors use identical mean-variance analysis (assumption 5), apply it to the same
**

universe of securities (assumption 3), with an identical time horizon (assumption 2), use the same

security analysis (assumption 6), and experience identical tax consequences (assumption 4), they

all must arrive at the same determination of the optimal risky portfolio. That is, they all derive

identical e¢cient frontiers and …nd the same tangency portfolio for the capital allocation line

(CAL) from T-bills (the risk-free rate, with zero standard deviation) to that frontier. Because

each investor uses the market portfolio for the optimal risky portfolio, the CAL in this case is

called the capital market line, or CML

56

– The risk premium on individual securities is a function of the individual

security’s contribution to the risk of the market portfolio

– Individual security’s risk premium is a function of the covariance of re-

turns with the assets that make up the market portfolio

« The Security Market Line and Positive Alpha Stock

– Security Market Line (SML): Graphical representation of the expected

return–beta relationship of the CAPM

– Alpha (c): The abnormal rate of return on a security in excess of what

would be predicted by an equilibrium model such as the CAPM.

1 (:) ÷:

f

=, [1 (:

M

) ÷:

f

]

1 (:) =:

f

+ [1 (:

M

) ÷:

f

]

. ¸¸ .

Slope

,

Stock 4

Stock 3

Stock 2

Market

Portfolio

Stock 1

•

•

f

1 00

β

•

•

Security Market

Line (SML)

Stock 1

σ

r

f

( ) r

M

E

Stock 2

Stock 3

Stock 4

Capital Market

Line (CML)

( ) r E

β = 0 r

f

β =

1

2

β = 1

Market

Portfolio

( ) r E

( ) r

M

E

57

« SML Relationships

, =

co· (:

i

. :

M

)

o

M

Slope o`1=1 (:

M

) ÷:

f

=market risk premium

o`1=:

f

+ , [1 (:

M

÷:

f

)]

« An example:

– Suppose the return on the market is expected to be 14%, a stock has

a beta of 1.2, and the T-bill rate is 6%. The SML would predict an

expected return on the stock of

1(:) =:

f

+ [1 (:

M

) ÷:

f

] ,

=0.06 + [0.14 ÷0.06] 1.2 = 0.156 (15.6%)

If one believes the stock will provide instead a return of 17%, its implied

alpha would be 1.4%.

« Estimating the Index Model

– The CAPM has two limitations: It relies on the theoretical market port-

folio, which includes all assets, and it deals with expected as opposed to

actual returns. To implement the CAPM, we cast it in the form of an

index model and use realized, not expected, returns

+ Using historical data on T-bills, S&P 500 and individual securities

+ Regress risk premiums for individual stocks against the risk premi-

ums for the S&P 500

+ Slope is the beta for the individual stock

:

i

÷:

f

. ¸¸ .

excess return on i

= c

i

+ ,

i

(:

M

÷:

f

)

. ¸¸ .

excess return on marekt portpolio

+ c

t

where where :

i

is the holding-period return (HPR) on asset i, and

c

i

and ,

i

are the intercept and slope of the line that relates asset

i’s realized excess return to the realized excess return of the index.

The c

i

measures …rm-speci…c e¤ects during the holding period; it is

the deviation of security i’s realized HPR from the regression line,

58

that is, the deviation from the forecast that accounts for the index’s

HPR.

« Security Characteristic Line (SCL)

– A plot of a security’s expected excess return over the risk-free rate as a

function of the excess return on the market.

« Multifactor Models

– Limitations for CAPM

– Market Portfolio is not directly observable

– Research shows that other factors a¤ect returns

« Fama French Research

– Returns are related to factors other than market returns

– Size

– Book value relative to market value

– Three factor model better describes returns

59

« Regression Statistics for the Single-index and FF Three-factor Model

« Arbitrage

– Arises if an investor can construct a zero beta investment portfolio with

a return greater than the risk-free rate, or

+ Arises when an investor can construct a zero-investment portfolio

that will yield a sure pro…t

– If two portfolios are mispriced, the investor could buy the low-priced

portfolio and sell the high-priced portfolio

– In e¢cient markets, pro…table arbitrage opportunities will quickly dis-

appear

« Arbitrage Pricing Theory (Stephen Ross (1976))

– A theory of risk-return relationships derived from no-arbitrage consider-

ations in large capital markets

– By showing that mispriced portfolios would give rise to arbitrage op-

portunities, the APT arrives at an expected return–beta relationship for

portfolios identical to that of the CAPM

« Security Characteristic Lines

– Figure below illustrates the di¤erence between a single security with a

beta of 1.0 and a well-diversi…ed portfolio with the same beta. For the

portfolio (Panel A), all the returns plot exactly on the security character-

istic line. There is no dispersion around the line, as in Panel B, because

60

the e¤ects of …rm-speci…c events are eliminated by diversi…cation.

« Mathematical Illustration of APT

– In its simple form, just like the CAPM, the APT posits a single-factor se-

curity market. Thus, the excess rate of return on each security, 1

i

(= :

i

÷:

f

),

can be represented by

:

i

÷:

f

= c

i

+ ,

i

[:

M

÷:

f

] + c

– A well-diversi…ed portfolio has zero …rm-speci…c risk, we can write its

returns as

:

p

÷:

f

= c

p

+ ,

p

[:

M

÷:

f

]

– The only value for alpha that rules out arbitrage opportunities is zero,

i.e.,

:

p

÷:

f

= ,

p

[:

M

÷:

f

]

– Hence, we arrive at the same expected return–beta relationship as the

CAPM without any assumption about either investor preferences or ac-

cess to the all-inclusive (and elusive) market portfolio.

« APT and CAPM Compared

– APT applies to well diversi…ed portfolios and not necessarily to individ-

ual stocks

– With APT it is possible for some individual stocks to be mispriced - not

lie on the SML

– APT is more general in that it gets to an expected return and beta

relationship without the assumption of the market portfolio

61

– APT can be extended to multifactor models

62

Part III

Futures and Options Markets

10 Mechanics of Futures Markets (H.2)

« Futures Contracts

– Available on a wide range of underlyings

– Exchange traded

– Speci…cations need to be de…ned:

+ What can be delivered,

+ Where it can be delivered, &

+ When it can be delivered

– Daily settlement

« Margins

– A margin is cash or marketable securities deposited by an investor with

his or her broker

– The balance in the margin account is adjusted to re‡ect daily settlement

– Margins minimize the possibility of a loss through a default on a contract

« Example of a Futures Trade

– An investor takes a long position in 2 December gold futures contracts

on June 5

+ contract size is 100 oz.

+ futures price is US$400

+ margin requirement is US$2,000/contract (US$4,000 in total)

63

+ maintenance margin is US$1,500/contract (US$3,000 in total)

Daily Cumulative Margin

Futures Gain Gain Account Margin

Price (Loss) (Loss) Balance Call

Day (US$) (US$) (US$) (US$) (US$)

400.00 4,000

5-Jun 397.00 (600) (600) 3,400 0

. . . . . .

. . . . . .

. . . . . .

13-Jun 393.30 (420) (1,340) 2,660 1,340

. . . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . . .

19-Jun 387.00 (1,140) (2,600) 2,740 1,260

. . . . . .

. . . . . .

. . . . . .

26-Jun 392.30 260 (1,540) 5,060 0

+

=

4,000

3,000

+

=

4,000

<

« Other Key Points About Futures

– They are settled daily

– Closing out a futures position involves entering into an o¤setting trade

– Most contracts are closed out before maturity

« Collateralization in OTC Markets

– It is becoming increasingly common for contracts to be collateralized in

OTC markets

– They are then similar to futures contracts in that they are settled regu-

larly (e.g. every day or every week)

« Delivery

– If a futures contract is not closed out before maturity, it is usually set-

tled by delivering the assets underlying the contract. When there are

alternatives about what is delivered, where it is delivered, and when it

is delivered, the party with the short position chooses.

– A few contracts (for example, those on stock indices and Eurodollars)

are settled in cash

« Some Terminology

– Open interest: the total number of contracts outstanding

64

+ equal to number of long positions or number of short positions

– Settlement price: the price just before the …nal bell each day

+ used for the daily settlement process

– Volume of trading: the number of trades in 1 day

« Convergence of Futures to Spot

« (Normal) Backwardation and Contango

– When the futures price is belowthe expected future spot price (1

t;T

< 1 (o

T

)),

the situation is known as (normal) backwardation

+ Nowadays, it is also called backwardation when 1

t;T

< o

t

– When the futures price is above the expected future spot price (1

t;T

1 (o

T

)),

the situation is known as contango

+ Nowadays, it is also called contango when 1

t;T

o

t

+ Oil market typically shows a contango

« Questions

– When a new trade is completed what are the possible e¤ects on the open

interest?

– Can the volume of trading in a day be greater than the open interest?

« Regulation of Futures

– Regulation is designed to protect the public interest

– Regulators try to prevent questionable trading practices by either indi-

viduals on the ‡oor of the exchange or outside groups

65

« Accounting & Tax

– It is logical to recognize hedging pro…ts (losses) at the same time as the

losses (pro…ts) on the item being hedged

– It is logical to recognize pro…ts and losses from speculation on a mark to

market basis

– Roughly speaking, this is what the accounting and tax treatment of

futures in the U.S.and many other countries attempts to achieve

« Forward Contracts

– A forward contract is an OTC agreement to buy or sell an asset at a

certain time in the future for a certain price

– There is no daily settlement (unless a collateralization agreement requires

it). At the end of the life of the contract one party buys the asset for

the agreed price from the other party

« Pro…t from a Long Forward or Futures Position

Profit

Price of Underlying

at Maturity

« Pro…t from a Short Forward or Futures Position

Profit

Price of Underlying

at Maturity

66

« Forward Contracts vs Futures Contracts

« Foreign Exchange Quotes

– Futures exchange rates are quoted as the number of USD per unit of the

foreign currency

– Forward exchange rates are quoted in the same way as spot exchange

rates. This means that GBP, EUR, AUD, and NZD are USD per unit of

foreign currency. Other currencies (e.g., CAD and JPY) are quoted as

units of the foreign currency per USD.

67

11 Hedging Strategies Using Futures (H. 3)

« Long & Short Hedges

– A long futures hedge is appropriate when you know you will purchase an

asset in the future and want to lock in the price

– A short futures hedge is appropriate when you know you will sell an asset

in the future & want to lock in the price

« Arguments in Favor of Hedging

– Companies should focus on the main business they are in and take steps

to minimize risks arising from interest rates, exchange rates, and other

market variables

« Arguments against Hedging

– Shareholders are usually well diversi…ed and can make their own hedging

decisions

– It may increase risk to hedge when competitors do not

– Explaining a situation where there is a loss on the hedge and a gain on

the underlying can be di¢cult

« Convergence of Futures to Spot (Hedge initiated at time t

1

and closed out at

time t

2

)

« Basis Risk

– Basis is the di¤erence between spot & futures

– Basis risk arises because of the uncertainty about the basis when the

hedge is closed out

« Long Hedge

68

– In the future, you must buy some products at the market price

– Suppose that 1

1

: Initial Futures Price, 1

2

: Final Futures Price, o

2

:

Final Asset Price

– You hedge the future purchase of an asset by entering into a long futures

contract

Cost of Asset = o

2

÷(1

2

÷1

1

) = 11 + 1c:i:

– An example: It is January 15. A copper fabricator knows it will require

100,000 pounds of copper on May 15 to meet a certain contract. The

spot price of copper is 340 cents per pound and the May futures price

is 320 cents per pound. The fabricator can hedge with the following

transactions:

+ January 15: Take a long position in four May futures on copper (one

contract contains 25,000 pounds of copper)

+ May 15: Close out the position

+ Suppose that the price of copper on May 15 proves to be 325 cents

per pound. Because May is the delivery month for the futures con-

tract, this should be very close to the futures price. The fabricator

therefore gains approximately

100. 000 ($3.25 ÷3.20) = $5. 000

on the futures contracts. It pays 100. 000$3.25 = $325. 000 for the

copper, making the total cost approximately $325. 000 ÷ $5. 000 =

$320. 000. (or 320 cents per pound)

« Short Hedge

– In the future, you must sell your product at the market price

– Suppose that 1

1

: Initial Futures Price, 1

2

: Final Futures Price, o

2

:

Final Asset Price

– You hedge the future sale of an asset by entering into a short futures

contract

Price Realized = o

2

+ (1

1

÷1

2

) = 11 + 1c:i:

– An example: It is May 15. An oil producer has negotiated a contract to

69

sell 1 million barrels of crude oil. The price in the sales contract is the

spot price on August 15.

+ Quotes:

Spot price of crude oil: $60 per barrel

August oil futures price: $59 per barrel

+ The oil producer can hedge with the following transactions:

May 15: Short 1,000 August futures contracts on crude oil (1

contract = 1,000 barrel)

August 15: Close out futures position

+ Suppose that the spot price on August 15 proves to be $55 per barrel.

The company realize $55 million for the oil under its sales contract.

Because August is the delivery month for the futures contract, the

future price on August 15 should be very close to the spot price of

$55 on that date. The company therefore gains approximately

$59-$55=$4 per barrel, or $4 million in total from the short

futures position

The total amount realized from both the futures position and

the sales contract is therefore approximately $59 per barrel, or

$59 million in total

« Choice of Contract

– Choose a delivery month that is as close as possible to, but later than,

the end of the life of the hedge

– When there is no futures contract on the asset being hedged, choose

the contract whose futures price is most highly correlated with the asset

price. There are then 2 components to basis

+ De…ne o

2

as the price of the asset underlying the futures contract

at time t

2

+ As before, o

2

is the price of the asset being hedged at time t

2

+ By hedging, a company ensures that the price that will be paid (or

received) for the asset is

o

2

+ 1

1

÷1

2

70

This can be written as

1

1

+ (o

2

÷1

2

) + (o

2

÷o

2

)

The terms o

2

÷1

2

and o

2

÷o

2

represent the two components of the

basis. The o

2

÷1

2

term is the basis that would exist if the asset being

hedged were the same as the asset underlying the futures contract.

The o

2

÷o

2

term is the basis arising from the di¤erence between the

two assets.

« Optimal Hedge Ratio

– Proportion of the exposure that should optimally be hedged is

/ = j

o

S

o

F

where o

S

is the standard deviation of o, the change in the spot price

during the hedging period, o

F

is the standard deviation of 1, the

change in the futures price during the hedging period, j is the coe¢cient

of correlation between o and 1.

Proof. Suppose we expect to sell `

A

units of an asset at time t

2

and

choose to hedge at time t

1

by shorting futures contracts on `

F

units of

a similar asset. The hedge ratio, which we will denote by /, is

/ =

`

F

`

A

(3A.1)

We will denote the total amount realized for the asset when the pro…t or

loss on the hedge is taken into account by 1 , so that

1 = o

2

`

A

÷(1

2

÷1

1

) `

F

or

1 = o

1

`

A

+ (o

2

÷o

1

) `

A

÷(1

2

÷1

1

) `

F

(3A.2)

From equation (3A.1), the expression for 1 in equation (3A.2) can be

71

written as

1 =o

1

`

A

+ `

A

(o) ÷(1

2

÷1

1

)

`

F

`

A

`

A

=o

1

`

A

+ `

A

(o) ÷(1) / `

A

=o

1

`

A

+ `

A

(o ÷/1) (3A.3)

where o = o

2

÷o

1

and 1 = 1

2

÷1

1

. Because o

1

and `

A

are known

at time t

1

, the variance of 1 in equation (3A.3) is minimized when the

variance of o ÷/1 is minimized. The variane of o ÷/1 equals

o

2

S

+ /

2

o

2

F

÷2/o

S;F

=o

2

S

+ /

2

o

2

F

÷2/jo

S

o

F

_

j

F;S

=

o

F;S

o

F

o

S

_

This can be written as

(r + ¸)

2

= r

2

+ 2r¸ + ¸

2

; (r ÷¸)

2

= r

2

÷2r¸ + ¸

2

(/o

F

÷jo

S

)

2

+ 2/jo

F

o

S

÷j

2

o

2

S

+ o

S

÷2/jo

S

o

F

=(/o

F

÷jo

S

)

2

+ o

S

÷j

2

o

2

S

The second and third term do not involve /. The variance is therefore

minimized when (/o

F

÷jo

S

)

2

is zero, that is, when / = j

S

F

.

« An example of optiomal hedge ratio

– Suppose that the standard deviation (o) of quarterly changes in the prices

of a commodity is $0.65, the standard deviation of quarterly changes in

a futures price on the commodity is $0.81, and the coe¢cient of correla-

tion(j) between the two changes is 0.8. What is the optimal hedge ratio

for a three-month contract? What does it mean?

+ The optimal hedge ratio is

0.8

0.65

0.81

= 0.642.

This means that the size of the futures position should be 64.2% of

the size of the company’s exposure in a three-month hedge.

« Hedging Using Index Futures

72

– To hedge the risk in a portfolio the number of contracts that should be

shorted is

,

1

1

where 1 is the value of the portfolio, , is its beta, and 1 is the current

value of one futures (=futures price times contract size)

« Reasons for Hedging an Equity Portfolio

– Desire to be out of the market for a short period of time. (Hedging may

be cheaper than selling the portfolio and buying it back.)

– Desire to hedge systematic risk (Appropriate when you feel that you have

picked stocks that will outpeform the market.)

« Example

– Futures price of S&P 500 is 1,000, Size of portfolio is $5 million, Beta of

portfolio is 1.5, One contract is on $250 times the index

– What position in futures contracts on the S&P 500 is necessary to hedge

the portfolio?

`

=,

o

1

1 =$250 1. 000 = 250. 000

`

=1.5

5. 000. 000

250. 000

= 30 (short)

« Changing Beta

– What position is necessary to reduce the beta of the portfolio to 0.75?

`

= 0.75

5. 000. 000

250. 000

= 15 (short)

Therefore, contract should be reduced by 15.

– What position is necessary to increase the beta of the portfolio to 2.0?

`

= 2.0

5. 000. 000

250. 000

= 40 (short)

Therefore, contract should be increased by 10.

« Rolling The Hedge Forward

73

– We can use a series of futures contracts to increase the life of a hedge

– Each time we switch from 1 futures contract to another we incur a type

of basis risk

74

12 Determination of Forward and Futures Prices (H. 5)

« Consumption vs Investment Assets

– Investment assets are assets held by signi…cant numbers of people purely

for investment purposes (Examples: gold, silver)

– Consumption assets are assets held primarily for consumption (Example:

oil)

« Short Selling

– Short selling involves selling securities you do not own

– Your broker borrows the securities from another client and sells them in

the market in the usual way

– At some stage you must buy the securities back so they can be replaced

in the account of the client

– You must pay dividends and other bene…ts the owner of the securities

receives

« Notation

o

0

: Spot price today

1

0

: Futures or forward price today

1 : Time until delivery date

: : Risk-free interest rate for maturity 1

« Gold: An Arbitrage Opportunity?

– Suppose that:

+ The spot price of gold is US$600

+ The quoted 1-year futures price of gold is US$650

+ The 1-year US$ interest rate is 5% per annum

+ No income or storage costs for gold

– Is there an arbitrage opportunity?

« The Futures Price of Gold

75

– If the spot price of gold is S & the futures price for a contract deliverable

in T years is F, then

1 = o(1 + :)

T

where r is the 1-year (domestic currency) risk-free rate of interest.

– In our examples, S=600, T=1, and r=0.05 so that F = 600(1+0.05) =

630

« When Interest Rates are Measured with Continuous Compounding

1

0

= o

0

c

rT

_

~

= o

0

(1 + :)

T

_

This equation relates the forward price and the spot price for any investment

asset that provides no income and has no storage costs

y

« When an Investment Asset Provides a Known Dollar Income

1

0

= (o

0

÷1) c

rT

where I is the present value of the income during life of forward contract

« When an Investment Asset Provides a Known Yield

1

0

= o

0

c

(rq)T

where ¡ is the average yield during the life of the contract (expressed with

continuous compounding)

« Valuing a Forward Contract (calculating the present value of a forward con-

tract)

– Suppose that 1 is delivery price in a forward contract & 1

0

is forward

price that would apply to the contract today

– The value of a long forward contract, ,, is

, = (1

0

÷1)c

rT

– Similarly, the value of a short forward contract is

(1 ÷1

0

)c

rT

y

For example, (1 + 0:05)

3

= e

0:053

= 1:16:

76

« Forward vs Futures Prices

– Forward and futures prices are usually assumed to be the same. When

interest rates are uncertain they are, in theory, slightly di¤erent:

– A strong positive correlation between interest rates and the asset price

implies the futures price is slightly higher than the forward price

– A strong negative correlation implies the reverse

« Stock Index

– Can be viewed as an investment asset paying a dividend yield

– The futures price and spot price relationship is therefore

1

0

= o

0

c

(rq)T

where ¡ is the dividend yield on the portfolio represented by the index

during life of contract

– For the formula to be true it is important that the index represent an

investment asset

– In other words, changes in the index must correspond to changes in the

value of a tradable portfolio

– The Nikkei index viewed as a dollar number does not represent an in-

vestment asset

« Index Arbitrage

– When 1

0

o

0

c

(rq)T

an arbitrageur buys the stocks underlying the index

and sells futures

– When 1

0

< o

0

c

(rq)T

an arbitrageur buys futures and shorts or sells the

stocks underlying the index

– Index arbitrage involves simultaneous trades in futures and many di¤er-

ent stocks

– Very often a computer is used to generate the trades

– Occasionally (e.g., on Black Monday) simultaneous trades are not possi-

ble and the theoretical no-arbitrage relationship between 1

0

and o

0

does

not hold

77

« Futures and Forwards on Currencies

– A foreign currency is analogous to a security providing a dividend yield

– The continuous dividend yield is the foreign risk-free interest rate

– It follows that if :

f

is the foreign risk-free interest rate

1

0

= o

0

c

(

rr

f )

T

« Why the Relation Must Be True

1000 units of

foreign currency

at time zero

units of foreign

currency at time T

T r

f

e 1000

dollars at time T

T r

f

e F

0

1000

1000S

0

dollars

at time zero

dollars at time T

rT

e S

0

1000

1000 units of

foreign currency

at time zero

units of foreign

currency at time T

T r

f

e 1000

dollars at time T

T r

f

e F

0

1000

1000S

0

dollars

at time zero

dollars at time T

rT

e S

0

1000

« Futures on Consumption Assets

1

0

_ o

0

c

(r+u)T

where n is the storage cost per unit time as a percent of the asset value.

Alternatively,

1

0

_ (o

0

+ l)c

rT

where l is the present value of the storage costs.

« The Cost of Carry

– The cost of carry, c, is the storage cost plus the interest costs less the

income earned

– For an investment asset 1

0

= o

0

c

cT

– For a consumption asset 1

0

_ o

0

c

cT

78

– The convenience yield on the consumption asset, ¸, is de…ned so that

1

0

= o

0

c

(cy)T

« Futures Prices & Expected Future Spot Prices

– Suppose / is the expected return required by investors on an asset

– We can invest 1

0

c

rT

now to get o

T

back at maturity of the futures

contract

– This shows that

1

0

= 1(o

T

)c

(rk)T

– If the asset has

+ no systematic risk, then / = : and 1

0

is an unbiased estimate of o

T

+ positive systematic risk, then / : and 1

0

< 1(o

T

)

+ negative systematic risk, then / < : and 1

0

1(o

T

)

79

13 Swaps (H. 7)

« Nature of Swaps

– A swap is an agreement to exchange cash ‡ows at speci…ed future times

according to certain speci…ed rules

« An Example of a “Plain Vanilla” Interest Rate Swap

– An agreement by Microsoft to receive 6-month LIBOR & pay a …xed rate

of 5% per annum every 6 months for 3 years on a notional principal of

$100 million, and in return Intel agrees to pay Microsoft the six month

LIBOR rate on the same principal

– Cash Flows to Microsoft

---------Millions of Dollars---------

LIBOR FLOATING FIXED Net

Date Rate Cash Flow Cash Flow Cash Flow

Mar.5, 2007 4.2%

Sept. 5, 2007 4.8% +2.10 –2.50 –0.40

Mar.5, 2008 5.3% +2.40 –2.50 –0.10

Sept. 5, 2008 5.5% +2.65 –2.50 +0.15

Mar.5, 2009 5.6% +2.75 –2.50 +0.25

Sept. 5, 2009 5.9% +2.80 –2.50 +0.30

Mar.5, 2010 6.4% +2.95 –2.50 +0.45

« Typical Uses of an Interest Rate Swap

– Converting a liability from

+ …xed rate to ‡oating rate

+ ‡oating rate to …xed rate

– Converting an investment from

+ …xed rate to ‡oating rate

+ ‡oating rate to …xed rate

« Intel and Microsoft (MS) Transform a Liability

80

– The swap can be used by MS to switch its borrowings from ‡oating to

…xed and by Intel to do the reverse

Intel MS

LIBOR

5%

LIBOR+0.1%

5.2%

MS Intel

Loan payment LIBOR+0.1% 5.2%

Add: Paid under swap 5.0% LIBOR

Less: Received under swap -LIBOR -5.0

Net payment 5.1% LIBOR+0.2%

– When Financial Institution is Involved

F.I.

LIBOR LIBOR

LIBOR+0.1%

4.985%

5.015%

5.2%

Intel MS

« Intel and Microsoft (MS) Transform an Asset

Intel MS

LIBOR

5%

LIBOR-0.2%

4.7%

MS Intel

Investment Income 4.7% LIBOR-0.2%

Add: Paid under swap -5.0% -LIBOR

Less: Received LIBOR 5.0

Net payment LIBOR-0.3% 4.8%

81

– When Financial Institution is Involved

Intel

F.I. MS

LIBOR LIBOR

4.7%

5.015% 4.985%

LIBOR-0.2%

« Quotes By a Swap Market Maker

– The average of the bid and o¤er …xed rate is known as the swap rate

« The Comparative Advantage Argument

– AAACorp wants to borrow ‡oating

– BBBCorp wants to borrow …xed

Fixed Floating

AAACorp 4.00% 6-month LIBOR + 0.30%

BBBCorp 5.20% 6-month LIBOR + 1.00%

– BBB pays 1.2% more than AAA in …xed-rate markets and only 0.7%

more than AAA in ‡oating-rate markets

+ BBB appears to have a comparative advantage in ‡oating-rate mar-

kets, whereas AAA appears to have a comparative advantage in

…xed-rate markets

82

– AAA agrees to pay BBB interest at six-month LIBOR. In return, BBB

agrees to pay AAA interest at a …xed rate of 3.95% per annum on the

same amount of money

AAA

BBB

LIBOR

LIBOR+1%

3.95%

4%

AAA BBB

Loan payment 4% LIBOR+1%

Add: Paid under swap LIBOR 3.95%

Less: Received under swap -3.95% -LIBOR

Net payment LIBOR+0.05% 4.95%

+ The Swap when a Financial Institution is Involved

AAA F.I. BBB

4%

LIBOR

LIBOR

LIBOR+1%

3.93%

3.97%

« Criticism of the Comparative Advantage Argument

– The 4.0% and 5.2% rates available to AAACorp and BBBCorp in …xed

rate markets are 5-year rates

– The LIBOR+0.3% and LIBOR+1% rates available in the ‡oating rate

market are six-month rates

– BBBCorp’s …xed rate depends on the spread above LIBOR it borrows

at in the future

« The Nature of Swap Rates

– Six-month LIBOR is a short-term AA borrowing rate

– The 5-year swap rate has a risk corresponding to the situation where 10

six-month loans are made to AA borrowers at LIBOR

83

– This is because the lender can enter into a swap where income from the

LIBOR loans is exchanged for the 5-year swap rate

« Valuation of an Interest Rate Swap

– Interest rate swaps can be valued as the di¤erence between the value of

a …xed-rate bond and the value of a ‡oating-rate bond

– Alternatively, they can be valued as a portfolio of forward rate agree-

ments (FRAs)

« Valuation in Terms of Bonds

– The …xed rate bond is valued in the usual way

– The ‡oating rate bond is valued by noting that it is worth par immedi-

ately after the next payment date

– Example

+ Receive 8% per annum and pay ‡oating semiannually on a principal

of $100 million.

+ 1.25 years to go and next ‡oating payment is $5.1 million

+ The LIBOR rates with continuous compounding for 3-month, 9-

month, and 15-month maturities are 10%, 10.5%, and 11%

+ The 6-month LIBOR rate at the last payment was 10.2% (with semi-

annual compounding)

Time Fixed Floating Disc PV fixed PV floating

Bond Bond Factor Bond Bond

0.25 4 105.1 0.9753 3.901 102.5045

0.75 4 0.9243 3.697

1.25 104 0.8715 90.64

98.238 102.505

+ Swap value (long position in a …xed-rate bond and a short position

in a ‡oating-rate bond)

\

swap

=1

fix

÷1

oat

=98.238 ÷102.505 = ÷4.267

« Valuation in Terms of FRAs

84

– Each exchange of payments in an interest rate swap is an FRA

– The FRAs can be valued on the assumption that today’s forward rates

are realized

– Example

Time Fixed Floating Net Disc PV of Net

Cash Flow Cash Flow Cash Flow Factor Cash Flow

0.25 4 -5.100 -1.100 0.9753 -1.073

0.75 4 -5.522 -1.522 0.9243 -1.407

1.25 4 -6.051 -2.051 0.8715 -1.787

-4.267

– To calculate the cash out‡ow, we must …rst calculate the foward rate

corresponding the period between three and nine month

1

F

=

1

2

1

2

÷1

1

1

1

1

2

÷1

1

0.105 + 0.75 ÷0.10 + 0.25

0.5

=0.1075

or 10.75% with continuous compounding

– The forward rate with semiannual compounding becomes

1

m

=:

_

c

R

c

=m

÷1

_

=2

_

c

(0:1075=2)

÷1

_

=11.044%

– The cash out‡ow is therefore 100 0.11044 0.5 = $5.522 million

« An Example of a Currency Swap

– An agreement to pay 5% on a sterling principal of £10,000,000 & receive

6% on a US$ principal of $18,000,000 every year for 5 years

– Exchange of Principal

+ In an interest rate swap the principal is not exchanged

+ In a currency swap the principal is exchanged at the beginning and

the end of the swap

85

– The Cash Flows

Year

Dollars Pounds

$

------millions------

2007 –18.00 +10.00

2008 +1.08 –0.5

2009

+1.08 –0.5

2010 +1.08 –0.5

2011 +1.08 –0.5

2012 +19.08 –10.5

£

« Typical Uses of a Currency Swap

– Conversion from a liability in one currency to a liability in another cur-

rency

– Conversion from an investment in one currency to an investment in an-

other currency

« Comparative Advantage Arguments for Currency Swaps

– General Electric wants to borrow AUD

– Qantas wants to borrow USD

USD AUD

General Motors 5.0% 7.6%

Qantas 7.0% 8.0%

« Valuation of Currency Swaps

– Like interest rate swaps, currency swaps can be valued either as the

di¤erence between 2 bonds or as a portfolio of forward contracts

« Swaps & Forwards

– A swap can be regarded as a convenient way of packaging forward con-

tracts

– When a swap is initiated the swap has zero value, but typically some

forwards have a positive value and some have a negative value

86

« Credit Risk

– A swap is worth zero to a company initially

– At a future time its value is liable to be either positive or negative

– The company has credit risk exposure only when its value is positive

87

14 Credit Derivatives (H. 21)

« Credit Default Swaps (CDS)

– Buyer of the instrument acquires protection from the seller against a

default by a particular company or country (the reference entity)

+ Example: Buyer pays a premium of 90 bps per year for $100 million

of 5-year protection against company X

– Premium is known as the credit default spread. It is paid for life of

contract or until default

– If there is a default, the buyer has the right to sell bonds with a face value

of $100 million issued by company X for $100 million (Several bonds may

be deliverable)

« CDS Structure

Default

Protection

Buyer, A

Default

Protection

Seller, B

90 bps per year

Payoff if there is a default by

reference entity=100(1-R)

Recovery rate, R, is the ratio of the value of the bond issued by reference

entity immediately after default to the face value of the bond

« Attractions of the CDS Market

– Allows credit risks to be traded in the same way as market risks

– Can be used to transfer credit risks to a third party

– Can be used to diversify credit risks

« CDS Spreads and Bond Yields

– Portfolio consisting of a 5-year par yield corporate bond that provides a

yield of 6% and a long position in a 5-year CDS costing 100 basis points

per year is (approximately) a long position in a riskless instrument paying

5% per year

– This shows that CDS spreads should be approximately the same as bond

yield spreads

88

« Valuation

– Suppose that conditional on no earlier default a reference entity has a

(risk-neutral) probability of default of 2% in each of the next 5 years

– Assume that the risk-free (LIBOR) rate is 5% per annum with continuous

compounding

– Assume payments are made annually in arrears, that defaults always

happen half way through a year, and that the expected recovery rate is

40%

– Suppose that the breakeven CDS rate is s per dollar of notional principal

« Unconditional Default and Survival Probabilities

« Calculation of PV of Payments (Principal=$1)

Time (yrs) Survival

Prob

Expected

Paymt

Discount

Factor

PV of Exp

Pmt

1 0.9800 0.9800s 0.9512 0.9322s

2 0.9604 0.9604s 0.9048 0.8690s

3 0.9412 0.9412s 0.8607 0.8101s

4 0.9224 0.9224s 0.8187 0.7552s

5 0.9039 0.9039s 0.7788 0.7040s

Total 4.0704s

89

« Present Value of Expected Payo¤ (Principal=$1)

Time

(yrs)

Default

Probab.

Rec.

Rate

Expected

Payoff

Discount

Factor

PV of Exp.

Payoff

0.5 0.0200 0.4 0.0120 0.9753 0.0117

1.5 0.0196 0.4 0.0118 0.9277 0.0109

2.5 0.0192 0.4 0.0115 0.8825 0.0102

3.5 0.0188 0.4 0.0113 0.8395 0.0095

4.5 0.0184 0.4 0.0111 0.7985 0.0088

Total 0.0511

« PV of Accrual Payment made in event of a Default. (Principal=$1)

Time Default

Prob

Expected

Accr Pmt

Disc

Factor

PV of Pmt

0.5 0.0200 0.0100s 0.9753 0.0097s

1.5 0.0196 0.0098s 0.9277 0.0091s

2.5 0.0192 0.0096s 0.8825 0.0085s

3.5 0.0188 0.0094s 0.8395 0.0079s

4.5 0.0184 0.0092s 0.7985 0.0074s

Total 0.0426s

« Putting it all together

– PV of expected payments is 4.0704: + 0.0426: = 4.1130:

– The breakeven CDS spread is given by

4.1130: = 0.0511 or : = 0.0124(124/j:)

– The value of a swap with a CDS spread of 150bps would be 4.1130

0.0150 ÷0.0511 or 0.0106 times the principal.

« Implying Default Probabilities from CDS spreads

– Suppose that the mid market spread for a 5 year newly issued CDS is

100bps per year

– We can reverse engineer our calculations to conclude that the default

probability is 1.61% per year.

90

– If probabilities are implied from CDS spreads and then used to value

another CDS the result is not sensitive to the recovery rate providing

the same recovery rate is used throughout

« Collateralized Debt Obligation

– A pool of debt issues are put into a special purpose trust

– Trust issues claims against the debt in a number of tranches

z

+ First tranche covers x% of notional and absorbs …rst x% of default

losses

+ Second tranche covers y% of notional and absorbs next y% of default

losses

+ etc

– A tranche earn a promised yield on remaining principal in the tranche

« Cash CDO Structure

Bond 1

Bond 2

Bond 3

6

Bond n

Average Yield

8.5%

Trust

Tranche 1

1

st

5% of loss

Yield = 35%

Tranche 2

2

nd

10% of loss

Yield = 15%

Tranche 3

3

rd

10% of loss

Yield = 7.5%

Tranche 4

Residual loss

Yield = 6%

« Synthetic CDO

– Instead of buying the bonds the arranger of the CDO sells credit default

swaps.

z

In structured …nance, a tranche (misspelled as traunch or traunche) is one of a number of

related securities o¤ered as part of the same transaction. The word tranche is French for slice,

section, series, or portion. In the …nancial sense of the word, each bond is a di¤erent slice of the

deal’s risk. Transaction documentation usually de…nes the tranches as di¤erent "classes" of notes,

each identi…ed by letter (e.g. the Class A, Class B, Class C securities). The term "tranche" is

used in …elds of …nance other than structured …nance (such as in straight lending, where "multi-

tranche loans" are commonplace), but the term’s use in structured …nance may be singled out

as particularly important. Use of "tranche" as a verb is limited almost exclusively to this …eld.

(Source: Wikipedia)

91

« Indices

– CDX IG: portfolio of 125 North American investment grade companies

+ Tranches: 0-3%, 3-7%, 7-10%, 10-15%, 15-30%, 30-100%

– iTraxx: portfolio of 125 European investment grade companies

+ Tranches: 0-3%, 3-6%, 6-9%, 9-12%, 12-22%, 22-100%

« Single Tranche Trading

– Where one tranche is traded without the other tranches being created

– The synthetic CDO structure is used as a reference for de…ning the cash

‡ows (but it is never actually created)

92

15 Mechanics of Options Markets (H. 8)

« Types of Options

– A call is an option to buy

– A put is an option to sell

– A European option can be exercised only at the end of its life

– An American option can be exercised at any time

« Option Positions

– Long call

– Long put

– Short call

– Short put

« Long Call

– Pro…t from buying one European call option: option price = $5, strike

price = $100

30

20

10

0

-5

70 80 90 100

110 120 130

Profit ($)

Terminal

stock price ($)

« Short Call

– Pro…t from writing one European call option: option price = $5, strike

93

price = $100

-30

-20

-10

0

5

70 80 90 100

110 120 130

Profit ($)

Terminal

stock price ($)

« Long Put

– Pro…t from buying a European put option: option price = $7, strike

price = $70

30

20

10

0

-7

70 60 50 40 80 90 100

Profit ($)

Terminal

stock price ($)

« Short Put

– Pro…t from writing a European put option: option price = $7, strike

price = $70

-30

-20

-10

7

0

70

60 50 40

80 90 100

Profit ($)

Terminal

stock price ($)

94

« Payo¤s from Options: What is the Option Position in Each Case?

– Let 1 = Strike price, o

T

= Price of asset at maturity

Payoff Payoff

S

T

S

T

K

K

Payoff Payoff

S

T

S

T

K

K

« Assets Underlying Exchange-Traded Options

– Stocks

– Foreign Currency

– Stock Indices

– Futures

« Speci…cation of Exchange-Traded Options

– Expiration date

– Strike price

– European or American

– Call or Put (option class)

« Terminology

– Moneyness :

+ At-the-money option

+ In-the-money option

+ Out-of-the-money option

– Option class

– Option series

95

– Intrinsic value

– Time value

« Dividends & Stock Splits

– Suppose you own ` options with a strike price of 1 :

+ No adjustments are made to the option terms for cash dividends

+ When there is an n-for-m (from m to n) stock split,

the strike price is reduced to :1,:

the number. of options is increased to :`,:

+ Stock dividends are handled in a manner similar to stock splits

– Consider a call option to buy 100 shares for $20/share

– How should terms be adjusted:

+ for a 2-for-1 stock split?

+ for a 5% stock dividend?

« Market Makers

– Most exchanges use market makers to facilitate options trading

– A market maker quotes both bid and ask prices when requested

– The market maker does not know whether the individual requesting the

quotes wants to buy or sell

« Margins

– Margins are required when options are sold

« Warrants

– Warrants are options that are issued (or written) by a corporation or a

…nancial institution

– The number of warrants outstanding is determined by the size of the

original issue & changes only when they are exercised or when they expire

– Warrants are traded in the same way as stocks

– The issuer settles up with the holder when a warrant is exercised

96

– When call warrants are issued by a corporation on its own stock, exercise

will lead to new treasury stock being issued

« Executive Stock Options

– Option issued by a company to executives

– When the option is exercised the company issues more stock

– Usually at-the-money when issued

– They become vested after a period of time (usually 1 to 4 years)

– They cannot be sold

– They often last for as long as 10 or 15 years

« Convertible Bonds

– Convertible bonds are regular bonds that can be exchanged for equity at

certain times in the future according to a predetermined exchange ratio

– Very often a convertible is callable

– The call provision is a way in which the issuer can force conversion at a

time earlier than the holder might otherwise choose

97

16 Trading Strategies Involving Options (H. 10)

« Three Alternative Strategies

– Take a position in the option and the underlying

– Take a position in 2 or more options of the same type (spread)

– Combination: Take a position in a mixture of calls & puts (combination)

« Positions in an Option & the Underlying

– Long in a stock with short in a call (a)

– Short in a stock with long in call (b)

– long in a put with long in a stock (c)

– short in a put with short in a stock (d)

Profit

S

T

K

Profit

S

T

K

Profit

S

T

K

Profit

S

T

K

(a)

(b)

(c) (d)

« Bull Spread Using Calls

– Buy a call option on a stock with a certain strike price (1

1

) and sell a

call option on the same stock with a higher strike price (1

2

)

– Both options have the same expiration date

98

Problem 5 An investor buys for $3 a call with a strike price of $30 and

sells for $1 call with a strike price of $35. What is the pro…t from this

transaction?

K

1

K

2

Profit

S

T

– payo¤ from a bull spread created using calls

Stock price Payo¤ from Payo¤ from Total

range long call option short call option payo¤

o

T

_ 1

1

0 0 0

1

1

< o

T

< 1

2

o

T

÷1

1

0 o

T

÷1

1

o

T

_ 1

2

o

T

÷1

1

1

2

÷o

T

1

2

÷1

1

« Bull Spread Using Puts

– Buy a put option with a low price (1

1

) and sell a put with a high strike

price (1

2

)

– Both options have the same expiration date

K

1

K

2

Profit

S

T

99

« Bear Spread Using Puts

K

1

K

2

Profit

S

T

« Bear Spread Using Calls

K

1

K

2

Profit

S

T

« Box Spread

– A combination of a bull call spread and a bear put spread

– If all options are European, a box spread is worth the present value of

the di¤erence between the strike prices

– If they are American this is not necessarily so

100

– Payo¤ from a box spread

Stock price Payo¤ from Payo¤ from Total

range bull call spread bear put spread payo¤

o

T

_ 1

1

0 1

2

÷1

1

1

2

÷1

1

1

1

< o

T

< 1

2

o

T

÷1

1

1

2

÷o

T

1

2

÷1

1

o

T

_ 1

2

1

2

÷1

1

0 1

2

÷1

1

The value of a box spread is always (1

2

÷1

1

) c

rT

(if and only if it is

an European).

« Butter‡y Spread

– Involves positions in the same types of options (call or put) with three

di¤erent strike prices

– Appropriate strategy for an investor who feels that large stock price

moves are unlikely

« Butter‡y Spread Using Calls

– Buy a call with strike price of 1

1

, buy a call with 1

3

, and sell 2 call

options with 1

2

K

1

K

3

Profit

S

T

K

2

« Butter‡y Spread Using Puts

– Buy a put with strike price of 1

1

, buy a put with 1

3

, and sell 2 put

options with 1

2

« Calendar Spread

101

– The options have the same strike price and di¤erent expiration date

– Sell a option with short-maturity and buy a option with long-maturity

« Understanding the pro…t diagram of callendar spread (call option case)

– If the stock price is very low when the short-maturity option expires

+ The short-maturity option is worthless and the value of long-maturity

option is close to zero

Investor therefore incurs a loss that is close to the cost of setting

up the spread initially

– If the stock price. o

T

, is very high when the short-maturity option expires

+ The short-maturity option cost investor o

T

÷ 1, and the long-

marurity option is worth a little more than o

T

÷1

Again, the investor makes a net loss that is close to the cost of

setting up the spread initially

– If o

T

is close to 1

+ the short-maturity option costs the investor either a small amount

or nothing at all

+ However, the long-maturity option is still quite valuable

In this case, a signi…cant net pro…t is made

– Pro…t diagram is drawn on the assumption the long-maturity option is

sold when the short-maturity option expires

« Calendar Spread Using Calls

– Pro…t diagrams show the pro…t when the short-maturity option expires

on the same day the long-maturity option is sold

T

S

K

102

« Diagonal Spread

– Similar to bull and bear spread except that diagonal spread the expiration

date of the option is di¤erent

« Combination

– Taking a position in both calls and puts on the same stock

« A Straddle

– Buying a call and put with the same strike price and expiration date

+ If the stock price close to this strike price, the straddle leads to a

loss

Profit

S

T

K

Stock price Payo¤ from Payo¤ from Total

range call put payo¤

o

T

_ 1 0 1 ÷o

T

1 ÷o

T

1

1

1 o

T

÷1 0 o

T

÷1

« Strip & Strap

– Strip: buying 1 call and 2 puts with the same strike price and expiration

date

+ Makes more money when the stock price falls signi…cantly

– Strap: buying 2 calls and 1 put with the same strike price and expiration

date

103

+ Makes more money when the stock price rises signi…cantly

Profit

K S

T

Profit

K S

T

Strip Strap

« A Strangle

– Buy a put and a call with di¤erent strike prices

– The call strike price, 1

2

, is higher than the put strike price

– Reduces downside risk more than those of strip and strap

K

1

K

2

Profit

S

T

Stock price Payo¤ from Payo¤ from Total

range call put payo¤

o

T

_ 1

1

0 1

1

÷o

T

1

1

÷o

T

1

1

< o

T

< 1

2

0 0 0

o

T

_ 1

2

o

T

÷1

2

0 o

T

÷1

2

104

17 Introduction to Binomial Trees (H. 11)

« A Simple Binomial Model

– A stock price is currently $20

– In three months it will be either $22 or $18

Stock Price = $22

Stock Price = $18

Stock price = $20

« A Call Option

– A 3-month call option on the stock has a strike price of 21

Stock Price = $22

Option Price = $1

Stock Price = $18

Option Price = $0

Stock price = $20

Option Price=?

« Setting Up a Riskless Portfolio

– Consider the Portfolio: long shares, short 1 call option

Portfolio is riskless when 22÷1 = 18 or = 0.25

« Valuing the Portfolio (Risk-Free Rate is 12%)

– The riskless portfolio is:

long 0.25 shares

short 1call option

105

– The value of the portfolio in 3 months when the stock price becomes $22

is

22 0.25 ÷1 = 4.50

– The value of the portfolio in 3 months when the stock price becomes $18

is

18 0.25 = 4.50

– The value of the portfolio in 2 months becomes 4.50 whether the stock

price rises to $22 or falls to $18

– The value of the portfolio today is

4.5c

0:120:25

= 4.3670

« Valuing the Option

– The portfolio that is

long 0.25 shares

short 1call option

is worth 4.367

– The value of the shares is 5.000(= 0.25 20)

– The value of the option is therefore 0.633(= 5.000 ÷4.367)

« Generalization

– A derivative lasts for time T and is dependent on a stock

Su

ƒ

u

Sd

ƒ

d

S

ƒ

106

– Consider the portfolio that is long shares and short 1 derivative

– The portfolio is riskless when on÷,

u

= od÷,

d

or

=

,

u

÷,

d

on ÷od

– Value of the portfolio at time T is

on÷,

u

– Value of the portfolio today is

(on÷,

u

)c

rT

– Another expression for the portfolio value today is o÷,

– Hence

, = o÷(on÷,

u

)c

rT

– Substituting for we obtain

, = [j,

u

+ (1 ÷j),

d

]c

rT

where

j =

c

rT

÷d

n ÷d

107

Proof.

, =o÷(on÷,

u

)c

rT

; =

,

u

÷,

d

on ÷od

, =o

,

u

÷,

d

on ÷od

÷(on

,

u

÷,

d

on ÷od

÷,

u

)c

rT

=(o

,

u

÷,

d

on ÷od

c

rT

÷on

,

u

÷,

d

on ÷od

+ ,

u

)c

rT

(

,

u

÷,

d

n ÷d

c

rT

÷n

,

u

÷,

d

n ÷d

÷,

u

)c

rT

=(

c

rT

÷n + (n ÷d)

n ÷d

,

u

÷

c

rT

÷n

n ÷d

)c

rT

=(

c

rT

÷d

n ÷d

,

u

+

n ÷c

rT

n ÷d

)c

rT

=(j,

u

+ (1 ÷j) ,

d

) c

rt

(:otc : 1 ÷

c

rT

÷d

n ÷d

=

n ÷d ÷c

rT

+ d

n ÷d

=

n ÷c

rT

n ÷d

)

« Risk-Neutral Valuation

– , = [j,

u

+ (1 ÷j),

d

]c

rT

– The variables p and (1 – p ) can be interpreted as the risk-neutral prob-

abilities of up and down movements

– The value of a derivative is its expected payo¤ in a risk-neutral world

discounted at the risk-free rate

« Irrelevance of Stock’s Expected Return

– When we are valuing an option in terms of the underlying stock the

expected return on the stock is irrelevant

108

« Original Example Revisited

– Since p is a risk-neutral probability

20c

0:120:25

= 22j + 18(1 ÷j); j = 0.6523

– Alternatively, we can use the formula

j =

c

rT

÷d

n ÷d

=

c

0:120:25

÷0.9

1.1 ÷0.9

= 0.6523

« Valuing the Option

– The value of the option is

c

0:120:25

[0.6523 1 + 0.3477 0] = 0.633

« A Two-Step Example

20

22

18

24.2

19.8

16.2

– Each time step is 3 months; K=21, r=12%

109

« Valuing a Call Option

20

1.2823

22

18

24.2

3.2

19.8

0.0

16.2

0.0

2.0257

0.0

A

B

C

D

E

F

– Value at node B

= c

0:120:25

(0.6523 3.2 + 0.3477 0) = 2.0257

– Value at node A

= c

0:120:25

(0.6523 2.0257 + 0.3477 0) = 1.2823

« A Put Option Example

– 1 = 52. t = 1¸:. : = 5%

50

4.1923

60

40

72

0

48

4

32

20

1.4147

9.4636

A

B

C

D

E

F

110

« What Happens When an Option is American

50

5.0894

60

40

72

0

48

4

32

20

1.4147

12.0

A

B

C

D

E

F

« Delta

– Delta () is the ratio of the change in the price of a stock option to the

change in the price of the underlying stock

– It is the number of units of the stock we should hold for each option

shortened in order to create riskless hedge

– The value of varies from node to node

– Deta is calculated as:

=

,

u

÷,

d

on ÷od

Stock Price = $22

Option Price = $1

Stock Price = $18

Option Price = $0

Stock price = $20

Option Price=?

– In the previous example, wec can calculate the value of delta of the call

as:

=

1 ÷0

22 ÷18

= 0.25.

This because when the stock price changes from $18 to $22, the option

price changes from $0 to $1

111

– Given the payo¤ as:

20

1.2823

22

18

24.2

3.2

19.8

0.0

16.2

0.0

2.0257

0.0

A

B

C

D

E

F

the delta corresponding to stock price movements over the …rst time step

is

2.0257 ÷0

22 ÷18

= 0.5064

the delta corresponding to stock price movements over the second time

step if there is an upward movement over the …rst time step is

3.2 ÷0

24.2 ÷19.8

= 0.7273

the delta corresponding to stock price movements over the second time

step if there is an downward movement over the …rst time step is

0 ÷0

19.8 ÷16.2

= 0

– The two-step example show that delta changes over time (in the example

above, delta chagnes from 0.5064 to either 0.7273 or 0)

– Thus, in order to maintain a riskless hedge using an option and the

underlying stock, we need to adjust our holding in the stock periodically

« Choosing u and d

– One way of matching the volatility is to set

n=c

p

t

d =1,n = c

p

t

where o is the volatility and t is the length of the time step. This is

the approach used by Cox, Ross, and Rubinstein

112

« The Probability of an Up Move

j =

c ÷d

n ÷d

c = c

rt

for a nondividend paying stock

c = c

(rq)t

for stock index where ¡ is dividend

yield on the index

c = c

(

rr

f )

t

for a currency where :

f

is the foreign

risk-free rate

c = 1 for a futures contract

113

18 Valuing Stock Options:The Black-Scholes Model (H. 12)

« The Black-Scholes Random Walk Assumption

– Consider a stock whose price is o

– In a short period of time of length t the return on the stock (o,o) is

assumed to be normal with mean jt and standard deviation

o

_

t

– j is expected return and o is volatility

« The Lognormal Property

– These assumptions imply ln o

T

is normally distributed with mean:

ln o

0

+

_

j ÷o

2

,2

_

1

and standard deviation:

o

_

1

– Because the logarithm of o

T

is normal, o

T

is lognormally distributed

ln o

T

-c

_

ln o

0

+

_

j ÷o

2

,2

_

1. o

2

1

¸

or

ln

_

o

T

o

0

_

-c

__

j ÷o

2

,2

_

1. o

2

1

¸

where c[:. ·] is a normal distribution with mean : and variance ·

« The Lognormal Distribution

Values

P

r

o

b

a

b

i

l

i

t

y

Log Normal

Log Values

P

r

o

b

a

b

i

l

i

t

y

Normal

114

1 (o

T

) =o

0

c

rT

\ c:(o

T

) =o

2

0

c

2T

_

c

2

T

÷1

_

Remark 6 The log normal distribution has the probability density function

, (r; j. o) =

1

r

_

2:o

c

(ln(x))

2

2

2

for r 0 where j and o are the mean and standard deviation of the vari-

able’s natural logarithm (by de…nition, the variable’s logarithm is normally

distributed), i.e.,

, (ln (r) ; j. o) =

1

_

2:o

c

(ln(x))

2

2

2

~`

_

j. o

2

_

The mean and the variance of r are

`cc:: c

+

2

=2

\ c:ic:cc :

_

c

2

÷1

_

c

2+

2

« The Expected Return

– The expected value of the stock price is o

0

c

T

– The expected return on the stock with continuous compounding is j ÷

o

2

,2

– The arithmetic mean of the returns over short periods of length t is j

– The geometric mean of these returns is j ÷o

2

,2

« The Volatility

– The volatility is the standard deviation of the continuously compounded

rate of return in 1 year

– The standard deviation of the return in time t is o

_

t

– If a stock price is $50 and its volatility is 25% per year what is the

standard deviation of the price change in one day?

« Estimating Volatility from Historical Data

– Take observations o

0

. o

1

. .... o

n

at intervals of t years

115

– De…ne the continuously compounded return as:

n

t

= ln

_

o

t

o

t1

_

– Calculate the standard deviation, :, of the n

t

’s

– The historical volatility estimate is

^ o =

:

_

t

« Nature of Volatility

– Volatility is usually much greater when the market is open (i.e. the asset

is trading) than when it is closed

– For this reason time is usually measured in “trading days” not calendar

days when options are valued

« The Concepts Underlying Black-Scholes

– The option price and the stock price depend on the same underlying

source of uncertainty

– We can form a portfolio consisting of the stock and the option which

eliminates this source of uncertainty

– The portfolio is instantaneously riskless and must instantaneously earn

the risk-free rate

« The Black-Scholes Formulas

c =o

0

` (d

1

) ÷1c

rT

` (d

2

)

j =1c

rT

` (÷d

2

) ÷o

0

` (÷d

1

)

where

d

1

=

ln (o

0

,1) + (: + o

2

,2) 1

o

_

1

d

2

=

ln (o

0

,1) + (: ÷o

2

,2) 1

o

_

1

= d

1

÷o

_

1

« The `(r) Function

116

– `(r) is the probability that a normally distributed variable with a mean

of zero and a standard deviation of 1 is less than r

– See tables at the end of the book

« Properties of Black-Scholes Formula

– As o

0

becomes very large c tends to o

0

÷1c

rT

and j tends to zero

– As S0 becomes very small c tends to zero and j tends to 1

erT

÷o

0

« Risk-Neutral Valuation

– The variable j does not appear in the Black-Scholes equation

– The equation is independent of all variables a¤ected by risk preference

– This is consistent with the risk-neutral valuation principle

« Applying Risk-Neutral Valuation

– 1. Assume that the expected return from an asset is the risk-free rate

– 2. Calculate the expected payo¤ from the derivative

– 3. Discount at the risk-free rate

« Valuing a Forward Contract with Risk-Neutral Valuation

– Payo¤ is o

T

÷1

– Expected payo¤ in a risk-neutral world is o

0

c

rT

÷1

– Present value of expected payo¤ is

c

rT

[o

0

c

rT

÷1] = o

0

÷1c

rT

« Implied Volatility

– The implied volatility of an option is the volatility for which the Black-

Scholes price equals the market price

– The is a one-to-one correspondence between prices and implied volatili-

ties

– Traders and brokers often quote implied volatilities rather than dollar

prices

117

« Dividends

– European options on dividend-paying stocks are valued by substituting

the stock price less the present value of dividends into the Black-Scholes

formula

– Only dividends with ex-dividend dates during life of option should be

included

– The “dividend” should be the expected reduction in the stock price ex-

pected

« American Calls

– An American call on a non-dividend-paying stock should never be exer-

cised early

– An American call on a dividend-paying stock should only ever be exer-

cised immediately prior to an ex-dividend date

« Black’s Approximation for Dealing with Dividends in American Call Options

– Set the American price equal to the maximum of two European prices:

+ 1. The 1st European price is for an option maturing at the same

time as the American option

+ 2. The 2nd European price is for an option maturing just before the

…nal ex-dividend date

« Executive Stock Options

– Executive stock options are valued when they are …rst issued and this

leads to an expense for the company

– One approach is to use Black-Scholes with the time to maturity equal to

the expected life. (There is no theoretical justi…cation for this but the

results it gives are not too unreasonable.)

– Another approach is to model the early exercise strategy of executives

and use a binomial tree that re‡ects this

– Another approach is to auction options that mirror the executive stock

options and see what the market is prepared to pay

– One issue is whether options should be valued just once or marked to

market in the same way as other derivatives.

118

19 The Greek Letters (H. 15)

« Example (Page 325)

– A bank has sold for $300,000 a European call option on 100,000 shares

of a non-dividend- paying stock

– o

0

= 49, 1 = 50, : = 5% (risk-free interest rate), o = 20% (stock price

volatility), 1 = 20 weeks, j = 13% (expected return)

– The Black-Scholes value of the option is $240,000

– How does the bank hedge its risk?

« Naked & Covered Positions

– Naked position

+ Take no action

– Covered position

+ Buy 100,000 shares today

– Both strategies leave the bank exposed to signi…cant risk

« Stop-Loss Strategy

– This involves:

+ Buying 100,000 shares as soon as price reaches $50

+ Selling 100,000 shares as soon as price falls below $50

– This deceptively simple hedging strategy does not work well

« Delta (See Figure 15.2, page 329)

– Delta () is the rate of change of the option price with respect to the

119

underlying

Option

price

A

B

Slope =

Stock price

∆

« Delta Hedging

– This involves maintaining a delta neutral portfolio

– The delta of a European call on a non-dividend-paying stock is ` (d

1

)

– The delta of a European put on the stock is [` (d

1

) ÷1]

– The hedge position must be frequently rebalanced

– Delta hedging a written option involves a “buy high, sell low” trading

rule

– See Tables 15.2 (page 332) and 15.3 (page 333) for examples of delta

hedging

« Theta ()

– Theta () of a derivative (or portfolio of derivatives) is the rate of change

of the value with respect to the passage of time

– See Figure 15.5 for the variation of with respect to the stock price for

a European call

« Gamma ()

– Gamma () is the rate of change of delta () with respect to the price

of the underlying asset

– See Figure 15.9 for the variation of with respect to the stock price for

a call or put option

120

« Gamma Addresses Delta Hedging Errors Caused By Curvature (Figure 15.7,

page 337)

S

C

Stock price

S′

Call

price

C′

C′′

« Interpretation of Gamma

– For a delta neutral portfolio,

~

= t +

1

2

o

2

, where denotes the value (price) of a portfolio

∆Π

S ∆

Positive Gamma

∆Π

S ∆

Negative Gamma

« Relationship Among Delta, Gamma, and Theta

– For a portfolio of derivatives on a non-dividend-paying stock paying

+ :o

0

+

1

2

o

2

o

2

0

= :

« Vega

121

– Vega (i) is the rate of change of the value of a derivatives portfolio with

respect to volatility

– See Figure 15.11 for the variation of i with respect to the stock price for

a call or put option

« Managing Delta, Gamma, & Vega

– Delta, , can be changed by taking a position in the underlying asset

– To adjust gamma, , and vega, i, it is necessary to take a position in an

option or other derivative

« Rho

– Rho is the rate of change of the value of a derivative with respect to the

interest rate

« Hedging in Practice

– Traders usually ensure that their portfolios are delta-neutral at least once

a day

– Whenever the opportunity arises, they improve gamma and vega

– As portfolio becomes larger hedging becomes less expensive

« Scenario Analysis

– A scenario analysis involves testing the e¤ect on the value of a portfolio

of di¤erent assumptions concerning asset prices and their volatilities

« Using Futures for Delta Hedging

– The delta of a futures contract on an asset paying a yield at rate ¡ is

c

(rq)T

times the delta of a spot contract

– The position required in futures for delta hedging is therefore c

(rq)T

times the position required in the corresponding spot contract

« Hedging vs Creation of an Option Synthetically

– When we are hedging we take positions that o¤set , , i, etc.

– When we create an option synthetically we take positions that match ,

, & i

122

« Portfolio Insurance

– In October of 1987 many portfolio managers attempted to create a put

option on a portfolio synthetically

– This involves initially selling enough of the portfolio (or of index futures)

to match the of the put option

– As the value of the portfolio increases, the of the put becomes less

negative and some of the original portfolio is repurchased

– As the value of the portfolio decreases, the of the put becomes more

negative and more of the portfolio must be sold

– The strategy did not work well on October 19, 1987...

123

Part IV

International Finance and

Monetary Policy

20 The Foreign Exchange Market (M. 17)

« Foreign Exchange

– Exchange rate – price of one currency in terms of another

– Foreign exchange market – the …nancial market where exchange rates

are determined

– Spot transaction – immediate (two-day) exchange of bank deposits

+ Spot exchange rate

– Forward transaction – the exchange of bank deposits at some speci…ed

future date

+ Forward exchange rate

– Appreciation – a currency rises in value relative to another(foreign) cur-

rency

– Depreciation – a currency falls in value relative to another currency

– When a country’s currency appreciates, the country’s goods abroad be-

come more expensive and foreign goods in that country become less

expensive and vice versa

– Over-the-counter market mainly banks

<Figure> Monthly average exchange rate (KRW/Foreign). BOK

124

« Exchange Rates in the Long Run

– Law of one price

– Theory of Purchasing Power Parity

+ Assumes all goods are identical in both countries

+ Trade barriers and transportation costs are low

+ Many goods and services are not traded across borders

« Factors that A¤ect Exchange Rates in the Long Run

– Relative price levels

– Trade barriers

– Preferences for domestic versus foreign goods

– Productivity

« Exchange Rates in the Short Run

– An exchange rate is the price of domestic assets in terms of foreign assets

– Using the theory of asset demand – the most important factor a¤ecting

the demand for domestic (dollar) assets and foreign (euro) assets is the

expected return on these assets relative to each other

« Uncovered Interest Parity (UIP)

– UIP describes the international capital market equilibrium. Assume

there are two assets [domestic (U.S.) & foreign (Japan) assets] and that

they are perfect substitute. Also assume no risk and no uncertainty.

De…ne the current exchange rate (at time t) as:

c

t

= 100 (U,$)

Also de…ne the domestic interest rate as i and foreign interest rate as i

f

.

There are two di¤erent strategies. If $1 is invested in a domestic asset,

in the next period (at time t + 1), you will earn

$1 (1 + i) . (1)

125

To invest $1 in the foreign asset, today you have to buy foreign currency:

$1 c

t

= $1 100

U

$

= 100U

If 100U is invested in the foreign asset, in the next period, you will earn

U100

_

1 + i

f

_

Ultimately, you want to compare the returns from two di¤erent strategies

(putting your money in a domestic asset vs. in the foreign asset). To

do so, you have to convert two di¤erent currencies into one common

currency (in our example, into dollars). So in the next period, you have

to convert the yens into U.S. dollars. De…ne the next period’s exchange

rate as c

t+1

(U,$), then your …nal return on the foreign asset will be:

U100

_

1 + i

f

_

1

c

t+1

= $1

_

1 + i

f

_

c

t

c

t+1

(2)

Under no-arbitrage, from (1) & (2), we must have

$1 (1 + i) =$1

_

1 + i

f

_

c

t

c

t+1

(3)

=(1 + i) =

_

1 + i

f

_

c

t

c

t+1

(UIP)

Equation (3) is called "Uncovered Interest Parity (UIP)".

x

For exam-

ple, assume that c

t

= 100 (U,$), i = 5%(0.05) . i

f

= 10%(0.1), then

according to UIP, the next period’s exchange rate should be:

(1 + 0.05) =(1 + 0.1)

100

c

t+1

c

t+1

=

1.10

1.05

100

~

= 104.76

Other possible questions on the UIP would be: 1) What should be the

the domestic intererest rate given i

f

. c

t

. c

t+1

under UIP? 2) What should

be the foreign interest rate given i. c

t

. c

t+1

under UIP? 3) What should

be the curren exchange rate given i. i

f

. c

t+1

under UIP?

« Demand and Supply for Domestic Assets

x

The term "uncovered" comes from the idea that it is not covered by either futures/foward

or option in …nancial market. The equal return between the spot market and the fu-

tures/forward/option market is related to the term "covered."

126

– Demand

+ Relative expected return

+ At lower current values of the dollar (everything else equal), the

quantity demanded of dollar assets is higher

– Supply

+ The amount of bank deposits, bonds, and equities in the U.S.

+ Vertical supply curve

« Exchange Rate Overshooting

– Monetary Neutrality

+ In the long run, a one-time percentage rise in the money supply is

matched by the same one-time percentage rise in the price level

– The exchange rate falls by more in the short run than in the long run

127

+ Helps to explain why exchange rates exhibit so much volatility

« The Dollar and Interest Rates

– While there is a strong correspondence between real interest rates and

the exchange rate, the relationship between nominal interest rates and

exchange rate movements is not nearly as pronounced

128

21 The International Financial System (M. 18)

« Unsterilized Foreign Exchange Intervention

– A central bank’s purchase of domestic currency and corresponding sale

of foreign assets in the foreign exchange market leads to an equal decline

in its international reserves and the monetary base

– A central bank’s sale of domestic currency to purchase foreign assets in

the foreign exchange market results in an equal rise in its international

reserves and the monetary base

Federal Reserve System Federal Reserve System

Assets Liabilities Assets Liabilities

Foreign

Assets

-$1B Currency in

circulation

-$1B Foreign

Assets

-$1B Deposits

with the Fed

-$1B

(International

Reserves)

(International

Reserves)

(reserves)

« Unsterilized Intervention

– An unsterilized intervention in which domestic currency is sold to pur-

chase foreign assets leads to a gain in international reserves, an increase

in the money supply, and a depreciation of the domestic currency

« Sterilized Foreign Exchange Intervention

– To counter the e¤ect of the foreign exchange intervention, conduct an

o¤setting open market operation

129

– There is no e¤ect on the monetary base and no e¤ect on the exchange

rate

Federal Reserve System

Assets Liabilities

Foreign Assets Monetary Base

(International Reserves) -$1B (reserves) 0

Government Bonds +$1B

« Balance of Payments

– Current Account

+ International transactions that involve currently produced goods and

services

+ The di¤erence between merchandise exports and imports is ccalled

the trade balance

– Capital Account

+ Net receipts from capital transactions

– Sum of these two is the o¢cial reserve transactions balance

« Exchange Rate Regimes

– Fixed exchange rate regime

+ Value of a currency is pegged relative to the value of one other

currency (anchor currency)

– Floating exchange rate regime

+ Value of a currency is allowed to ‡uctuate against all other currencies

– Managed ‡oat regime (dirty ‡oat)

+ Attempt to in‡uence exchange rates by buying and selling currencies

« Past Exchange Rate Regimes

– Gold standard

+ Fixed exchange rates

+ No control over monetary policy

130

+ In‡uenced heavily by production of gold and gold discoveries

– Bretton Woods System

+ Fixed exchange rates using U.S. dollar as reserve currency

+ International Monetary Fund (IMF)

+ World Bank

+ General Agreement on Tari¤s and Trade (GATT)

+ World Trade Organization

– European Monetary System

+ Exchange rate mechanism

« How a Fixed Exchange Rate Regime Works

– When the domestic currency is overvalued, the central bank must pur-

chase domestic currency to keep the exchange rate …xed, but as a result,

it loses international reserves

– When the domestic currency is undervalued, the central bank must sell

domestic currency to keep the exchange rate …xed, but as a result, it

gains international reserves

« How Bretton Woods Worked

– Exchange rates adjusted only when experiencing a ‘fundamental disequi-

librium’ (large persistent de…cits in balance of payments)

– Loans from IMF to cover loss in international reserves

131

– IMF encourages contractionary monetary policies

– Devaluation only if IMF loans are not su¢cient

– No tools for surplus countries

– U.S. could not devalue currency

« Managed Float

– Hybrid of …xed and ‡exible

+ Small daily changes in response to market

+ Interventions to prevent large ‡uctuations

– Appreciation hurts exporters and employment

– Depreciation hurts imports and stimulates in‡ation

– Special drawing rights as substitute for gold

« European Monetary System

– 8 members of EEC …xed exchange rates with one another and ‡oated

against the U.S. dollar

– ECU value was tied to a basket of speci…ed amounts of European cur-

rencies

– Fluctuated within limits

– Led to foreign exchange crises involving speculative attack

« Capital Controls

– Out‡ows

+ Promote …nancial instability by forcing a devaluation

+ Controls are seldom e¤ective and may increase capital ‡ight

+ Lead to corruption

+ Lose opportunity to improve the economy

– In‡ows

+ Lead to a lending boom and excessive risk taking by …nancial inter-

mediaries

+ Controls may block funds for productions uses

+ Produce substantial distortion and misallocation

132

+ Lead to corruption

– Strong case for improving bank regulation and supervision

« The IMF: Lender of Last Resort

– Emerging market countries with poor central bank credibility and short-

run debt contracts denominated in foreign currencies have limited ability

to engage in this function

– May be able to prevent contagion

– The safety net may lead to excessive risk taking (moral hazard problem)

« How Should the IMF Operate?

– May not be tough enough

– Austerity programs focus on tight macroeconomic policies rather than

…nancial reform

– Too slow, which worsens crisis and increases costs

« Direct E¤ects of the Foreign Exchange Market on the Money Supply

– Intervention in the foreign exchange market a¤ects the monetary base

– U.S. dollar has been a reserve currency: monetary base and money supply

is less a¤ected by foreign exchange market

« Balance-of-Payments Considerations

– Current account de…cits in the U.S. suggest that American businesses

may be losing ability to compete because the dollar is too strong

– U.S. de…cits mean surpluses in other countries 1=large increases in their

international reserve holdings = world in‡ation

« Exchange Rate Considerations

– A contractionary monetary policy will raise the domestic interest rate

and strengthen the currency

– An expansionary monetary policy will lower interest rates and weaken

currency

« Advantages of Exchange-Rate Targeting

133

– Contributes to keeping in‡ation under control

– Automatic rule for conduct of monetary policy

– Simplicity and clarity

« Disadvantages of Exchange-Rate Targeting

– Cannot respond to domestic shocks and shocks to anchor country are

transmitted

– Open to speculative attacks on currency

– Weakens the accountability of policymakers as the exchange rate loses

value as signal

« Exchange-Rate Targeting for Industrialized Countries

– Domestic monetary and political institutions are not conducive to good

policy making

– Other important bene…ts such as integration

« Exchange-Rate Targeting for Emerging Market Countries

– Political and monetary institutions are weak

– Stabilization policy of last resort

« Currency Boards

– Solution to lack of transparency and commitment to target

– Domestic currency is backed 100% by a foreign currency

– Note issuing authority establishes a …xed exchange rate and stands ready

to exchange currency at this rate

– Money supply can expand only when foreign currency is exchanged for

domestic currency

– Stronger commitment by central bank

– Loss of independent monetary policy and increased exposure to shock

from anchor country

– Loss of ability to create money and act as lender of last resort

« Dollarization

134

– Another solution to lack of transparency and commitment

– Adoption of another country’s money

– Even stronger commitment mechanism

– Completely avoids possibility of speculative attack on domestic currency

– Lost of independent monetary policy and increased exposure to shocks

from anchor country

– Inability to create money and act as lender of last resort

– Loss of seignorage

135

- Financial EconomicsUploaded bymosib74
- Chapter6 GEUploaded byPC
- Ts Econometric sUploaded byDwi Mayu
- Jeffrey Wooldridge - Teachers' Guide to Introductory Eco No Metrics (2nd EdUploaded byapi-3740735
- CT8-Financial-Economics.pdfUploaded byVignesh Srinivasan
- Microeconometrics Lecture NotesUploaded byburggu
- Stata Manual 2009Uploaded bytomrannosaurus
- US Federal Reserve: 199914papUploaded byThe Fed
- Solution Manual for MicroeconometricsUploaded bySafis Hajjouz
- Lectures in Financial EconomicsUploaded byShaurya Mishra
- MC090410137 2010 Latest Quiz for PostUploaded byMuhammad Soban
- Financial EconomicsUploaded byUnusualskill
- Term Stucture TheoriesUploaded byAbbas Naqvi
- Applied. EconometrcisstatapdfUploaded bymandcrut
- Lecture Notes in Financial EconomicsUploaded byDinesh Kumar
- 06.the Risk and Term Structure of Interest RatesUploaded byShivan Nguyen
- Andres_prosjekoppgave (2)Uploaded byserdna82
- Bond Valuation.pdfUploaded byAnonymous fzhh0qK
- Millerch4Uploaded byPhạm Anh Đức
- ch3Uploaded byjuicy_buddha3
- r_qt1809hUploaded bysdafwet
- Chapter 5 HW SolutionUploaded byZarifah Fasihah
- Money and InterestUploaded byJerry Wu
- the yield curve of bond and yield to maturityUploaded byFebrianty Amirah Pratama
- Chapter 6 Lecture NotesUploaded byFatima Ali
- NUploaded byAnonymous Wgc3ZX70
- Interest RateUploaded byumair_siddiqui89
- M06_GITM4380_13E_IM_C06.pdfUploaded byGolamSarwar
- Lecture 4 actually this is lecture 3.pdfUploaded byJulio Gazi
- Handout 03Uploaded bySana Naz

- Ttu 45-2013 thay the 203-2009 (4-2013)Uploaded byamericus_smile7474
- Phieu Ghi Danh Tu Xa Lop Nguoi LonUploaded byamericus_smile7474
- Book1Uploaded byamericus_smile7474
- Ac Guide Dec11 Ch 11Uploaded byamericus_smile7474
- THU CUỐI BEATUploaded byamericus_smile7474
- Bcthantich(Nhat)Uploaded byamericus_smile7474
- ActerUploaded byamericus_smile7474
- Book1Uploaded byamericus_smile7474
- DANH SÁCH KHEN THƯỞNG LỚPUploaded byamericus_smile7474
- TT39_31032014BTCUploaded byamericus_smile7474
- Khi giải tầng 2Uploaded byamericus_smile7474
- Huong Dan Ghi Danh Tu XaUploaded byamericus_smile7474
- Economics AffairsUploaded byamericus_smile7474
- 11989_TT19BTCUploaded byamericus_smile7474
- Sentence TransformationUploaded byamericus_smile7474
- THU CUỐI BEATUploaded byamericus_smile7474
- Econ 252 Spring 2011 Problem Set 5Uploaded byamericus_smile7474
- ECON252_15_032111_MCUploaded byamericus_smile7474
- Review ExercisesUploaded byamericus_smile7474
- Ch__ng I 2010Uploaded byamericus_smile7474
- 550.444 FA12 Midterm SolutionsUploaded byamericus_smile7474
- Chuong 1 Introduction 2013 SUploaded byamericus_smile7474
- bai nhomUploaded byamericus_smile7474
- baitapthue-cogiai-100302183449-phpapp02Uploaded byamericus_smile7474
- Chuong 2 Forward and Futures 2013 SUploaded byamericus_smile7474
- Econ 252 Spring 2011 Problem Set 5 SolutionUploaded byamericus_smile7474
- Solution ManualUploaded byamericus_smile7474
- 983 Bc Ket Qua Thuc Hien Co Che Tu Chu Ve Tai Chinh0001Uploaded byamericus_smile7474
- bai tap 16Uploaded byamericus_smile7474
- Chuong3 Swaps 2013 SUploaded byamericus_smile7474