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Econ 252 - Financial Markets Spring 2011 Professor Robert Shiller Problem Set 5 – Solution

Problem Set 5 – Solution

Professor Robert Shiller

Question 1 (a) In period 0, both the buyer and the seller have to post margin according to the post 100$12=$1,200 margin.

initial margin requirement. As they enter into 100 contracts, they both have to

From period 0 to period 1, the price of wheat futures that mature in period 4 falls by $4, from $130 to $126. This is disadvantageous for the buyer, as he has locked in a price of $130 in period 0. Therefore, the balance of his margin the price of wheat futures that mature in period 4 falls by $4 is advantageous for seller’s balance in his margin increases from $1,200 to $1,600. account will fall by 100$4=$400, from $1,200 to $800. In contrast, the fact that the seller, as he has locked in a price of $130 in period 0. In consequence, the The balance of the margin accounts will evolve in periods 2 through 4 according to the same argument. The only important aspect to keep in mind is the 100$7=$700. If any of the two party’s margin account balance falls below the of the margin account is back at the initial margin level. maintenance level, this party has to post additional margin such that the balance

maintenance requirement. For 100 contracts, the maintenance level equals

1

500 $400+$800=$1. 2 . The only additional feature in this part is that both parties always remove any balance in their respective margin accounts margin that is posted because the balance of the account drops below the maintenance margin level.400 $1.000-$800=$1.000=$1.Econ 252 Spring 2011 In consequence. Period 0 1 2 3 4 Price is additional margin posted.200 $1.200 $1. note that on the settlement date neither is margin neither removed nor Buyer’s Margin Account Seller’s Margin Account $1. $130 $126 $120 $128 $131 that exceeds the initial margin. the margin account balance for the buyer and the seller evolves balance drops below the maintenance margin: Period 0 1 2 3 4 Price $130 $126 $120 $128 $131 Buyer’s Margin Account Seller’s Margin Account $1.200 $1.000=$1.300 (b) The basic logic behind the evolution of the margin accounts for the buyer and the seller remains the same as in part (a).100 Problem Set 5 – Solution Professor Robert Shiller as follows. Therefore. where additions indicate additional margin postings because of $2.200 $1.200 $1. whereas additions still indicate additional Finally. Removal of funds will be indicated by subtractions in the following table.600-$400=$1.200 $800 $2.200 $1.600 $2.200 $800 $2.200 $900 (c) Period 4 is the settlement date.800-$600=$1.200 $200+$1.000 $1. which is $131. the spot market price of 50 bushels of wheat must be the futures price of 50 bushels of wheat in period 4.200 $200+$1.

The total profit from these transactions is $3.02$50 because of the X’s dividend payment. 2. 3. Collect $1=0. In consequence.50. (b) Now.03$50. Use underlying asset to settle futures contract. (1+r-y)spot price of asset X. the futures price is $53. Pay off loan with $51.03-0. Use borrowed money to buy underlying asset for $50. Borrow $50. the fair value of the described futures contract is (1+0. receive $53. In this case.50=1.50.Econ 252 Spring 2011 Question 2 Problem Set 5 – Solution Professor Robert Shiller (a) The fair value of the described futures contract is given by the expression where r is the riskless interest rate and y is the dividend rate for asset X. 3 . • Period 1: 3. 1.02)50=50.50. Sell futures contract. one obtains a riskless profit from the so-called “cash and carry trading strategy”: • Period 0: 1. 2.

investor’s own capital) via the “cash and carry trading strategy”. More precisely. This Therefore. the bound on 4 . Receive the asset from futures contract.02)50 = 50. Receive $51.Econ 252 Spring 2011 (c) Now.02$50 dividend (d) Qualitatively. Period 1: Problem Set 5 – Solution Professor Robert Shiller 2. and receive $50. the fact that the futures price is above the fair value price of the futures contract results in a riskless profit opportunity (not requiring any of the not possible to exploit futures prices that are too high.02. As borrowing is prohibited.50. F ≥ (1+r–y)P = (1+0.50=1. one obtains a riskless profit from the so-called “reverse cash and carry trading strategy”: • Period 0: 1. the fact that the futures price falls below the fair value price of the strategy requires the ability to lend money. to settle short-sale. the futures price is $47. r = 0.03$50 from loan. and pay $1=0. Lend $50. 6. In this case. this strategy requires the ability to borrow money. Return the asset from futures contract. • 3. futures contract results in a riskless profit opportunity (not requiring any of the investor’s own capital) via the “reverse cash and carry trading strategy”. prices that are “too high” cannot be corrected. whereas futures futures prices in this part such that there are no arbitrage opportunities is Note that in this equation. The total arbitrage profit from these transactions is $3. Buy futures contract. it is In contrast. which is permitted in this part.50. and pay $47.02–0. futures prices that are “too low” can be exploited. Short-sell the underlying asset. However. 4. because lending is used. 5.

which is permitted in this part. arbitrage principle is F ≤ (1+r–y)P = (1+0. whereas futures futures prices in this part such that there are no arbitrage opportunities is Note that in this equation. 5 . prices that are “too low” cannot be corrected. However.02)50 = 51. the fact that the futures price is above the fair value price of the requires the ability to borrow money. More precisely. the bound on (f) Combining (d) and (e). Problem Set 5 – Solution Professor Robert Shiller futures contract results in a riskless profit opportunity (not requiring any of the investor’s own capital) via the “cash and carry trading strategy”. As lending is In contrast. futures prices that are “too high” can be exploited. this strategy requires the ability to lend money.04. prohibited. This strategy Therefore. because lending is used. it is not possible to exploit futures prices that are too low.04–0. the fact that the futures price falls below the fair value price of the futures contract results in a riskless profit opportunity (not requiring any of the investor’s own capital) via the “reverse cash and carry trading strategy”.Econ 252 Spring 2011 (e) Qualitatively. the range of futures prices that is consistent with the no50 ≤ F ≤ 51. r = 0.

6 residential mortgages have gone bad.20 + 4500.00 + 500.00 = 535. the risk-weighted value of these assets is (in millions of $) (b) According to the simplified capital requirement.S.50 + 3001. the bank must raise at least $53. residential mortgages: 50%. Therefore.20 + 2000. After losing $50 million.50 + 3001.5 million to . Therefore. 1000. the bank must hold 10% of the risk-weighted assets.00 + 500. (d) If $50 million in residential mortgage loans go bad.5 million.Econ 252 Spring 2011 Question 3 Problem Set 5 – Solution Professor Robert Shiller (a) The corresponding risk-weights from the Fabozzi et al. commercial loans and commercial mortgages: 100%. the bank capital before was $56 million. be in compliance with the simplified capital requirement. textbook are: • • • • U. municipal general obligation bonds: 20%. which is the smallest amount of capital it must raise to be in compliance with the simplified capital requirement.20 + 5000.00 = 560. the total risk-weighted assets 1000. (c) The risk-weighted value of the assets to be added is (in millions of $) Therefore. the bank capital falls from $56 million to $6 million. as Hence. Treasury securities: 0%. As the bank has just been holding enough capital to meet the capital requirement before the computed in part (b).5 million – $6 million = $47. This is $56 million.50 = 120. the capital requirement for the bank is now $53. the risk-weighted capital requirement corresponding to these assets is $12 million. fall to (in millions of $) 1000.

Econ 252 Spring 2011 (in millions of $) (e) If $50 million in commercial loans go bad. the total risk-weighted assets fall to 1000.00 = 510. 7 .50 + 2601.20 + 5000.00 + 500. the bank capital before was $56 million. As the bank has just been holding enough capital to meet the capital requirement before the computed in part (b). After losing $50 million. Problem Set 5 – Solution Professor Robert Shiller Therefore. the bank must raise at least $51 million – $6 million = $45 million to be in compliance with the simplified capital requirement. Hence. as million to $6 million. the capital requirement for the bank is now $51 million. the bank capital falls from $56 residential mortgages have gone bad.

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