New York City Mayoral Election – Republican Primary

August 22-27, 2013 400 Likely Republican Primary Election Voters (MOE: +/- 4.9%)

Likelihood to Vote
What are the chances of you voting in the September Republican PRIMARY election? Under Staten 50 50+ Manhattan Brooklyn Queens Island

All

Male Female

Almost certain Probably 50-50 Probably not Definitely not Don't know

86 14 0 0 0 0

86 14 0 0 0 0

86 14 0 0 0 0

77 23 0 0 0 0

91 9 0 0 0 0

88 12 0 0 0 0

83 17 0 0 0 0

89 11 0 0 0 0

87 13 0 0 0 0

Direction of New York City
Would you say that things in New York City are generally headed in the right direction, or are things off on the wrong track?

All

Male Female

Under Staten 50 50+ Manhattan Brooklyn Queens Island

Right direction Wrong track Don't know/refused

38 52 10

40 52 8

36 51 13

47 46 7

32 55 12

53 39 8

39 53 8

39 51 10

21 64 15

Penn Schoen Berland

1

Most Important Issue
I am going to read you a list of concerns that some people in the city have mentioned. Please tell me which one you personally want the next Mayor of New York City to focus on in the next few years:

All

Male Female

Under Staten 50 50+ Manhattan Brooklyn Queens Island

Crime and safety 22 The economy and jobs 18 Taxes and city fees 10 Public education 9 City government 9 spending and debt Affordable housing for 8 all income groups Cost of living 5 Traffic and congestion 4 Condition of city 3 streets and roads Income inequality 2 City services like sewers and garbage 1 collection Other 5 Don't know 2

24 20 10 8 9 8 3 3 5 3 1 4 2

20 17 10 10 10 8 6 4 1 2 2 6 2

19 19 12 9 8 8 7 6 5 3 2 3 0

24 18 9 9 10 8 4 2 3 2 1 7 3

27 23 6 10 7 12 2 5 2 0 0 5 1

19 19 5 8 10 10 7 4 4 4 2 7 0

22 15 13 6 14 7 6 1 5 2 3 4 2

18 17 18 14 7 2 3 9 2 2 1 7 2

Penn Schoen Berland

2

Mayoral Ballot
If the September 2013 Republican Primary for New York City Mayor were held tomorrow and the candidates were: ## RANDOMIZE THE NAMES ## Joe Lhota, John Catsimatidis AND George McDonald for whom would you vote or are you undecided? [IF UNDECIDED:] Well, toward which candidate do you lean? [IF CANDIDATE:] Would you say you support that candidate strongly or not strongly?

All

Male Female

Under Staten 50 50+ Manhattan Brooklyn Queens Island

Lhota Catsimatidis McDonald Undecided Other Refused

50 28 5 15 2 0

53 27 5 11 3 1

48 29 4 18 1 0

46 27 4 20 2 1

53 28 5 11 2 0

66 18 5 11 0 0

50 27 8 13 3 0

42 33 5 15 3 1

53 30 0 15 1 0

Penn Schoen Berland

3

Mayoral Ballot: Complete Breakdown

All

Under Staten Male Female 50 50+ Manhattan Brooklyn Queens Island

Lhota – strong Lhota – not strong undecided – lean Lhota Catsimatidis – strong Catsimatidis – not strong undecided – lean Catsimatidis McDonald – strong McDonald – not strong undecided – lean McDonald Undecided Other Refused

31 11 9 17 7 4 2 1 2 15 2 0

29 15 9 19 6 1 2 1 3 11 3 1

33 7 8 15 8 6 2 1 2 18 1 0

21 15 10 15 8 4 2 0 2 20 2 1

37 8 8 18 7 3 2 1 3 11 2 0

34 19 13 9 6 3 5 0 0 11 0 0

36 8 6 14 10 4 3 0 5 13 3 0

26 8 8 23 8 2 1 2 3 15 3 1

32 12 9 16 7 7 0 0 0 15 1 0

Mayoral Ballot Based on the Issues

All

Crime and Safety Top Issue

Economy and Jobs Top Issue

Lhota Catsimatidis McDonald Undecided Other Refused

50 28 5 15 2 0

54 34 4 8 0 0

50 25 8 14 0 2

Penn Schoen Berland

4

IF SUPPORT A CANDIDATE: Are you supporting this candidate mainly because:

All

Under Staten Male Female 50 50+ Manhattan Brooklyn Queens Island

You think the candidate can get things done You like the candidate’s ideas and proposals There is no better alternative You like the candidate’s experience The candidate represents change You like the candidate’s personality Don't know

23 22 21 20 7 3 5

23 20 24 18 7 4 4

23 25 18 22 7 1 5

16 25 24 20 9 4 2

27 21 19 20 6 2 6

15 17 19 26 9 3 10

28 22 18 15 13 1 4

24 23 20 22 2 4 4

24 27 25 15 5 2 4

IF SUPPORT A CANDIDATE: Are you supporting this candidate mainly because:

All

Lhota supporters

Catsimatidis supporters

You think the candidate can get things done You like the candidate’s ideas and proposals There is no better alternative You like the candidate’s experience The candidate represents change You like the candidate’s personality Don't know VOL

23 22 21 20 7 3 5

25 14 22 27 5 3 5

19 38 18 10 9 3 4

Penn Schoen Berland

5

Mayoral Ballot Based Reasons to Support a Candidate.

All

Candidate can get Things Done

Like Ideas and Proposals

No Better Alternative

Candidate’s Experience

Lhota Catsimatidis McDonald

50 28 5

66 27 7

38 57 5

64 30 7

83 16 1

IF SUPPORT A CANDIDATE: And is this candidate your original choice for the Republican nominee for Mayor, or have you changed your mind over the course of the primary campaign?

All

Male Female

Under Staten 50 50+ Manhattan Brooklyn Queens Island

Original choice Changed my mind Don't know

73 22 6

71 25 4

74 19 7

76 21 3

71 22 7

61 28 12

76 18 6

75 22 3

73 26 1

IF CHANGE MIND Which of the candidates did you support before changing your mind?

All

Male

Female

Under 50

50+

John Catsimatidis Joe Lhota George McDonald None – was UNDECIDED Other Don't know

34 27 1 24 11 3

35 27 2 22 13 2

34 27 0 26 8 6

42 38 0 9 11 0

30 21 1 31 11 5

Penn Schoen Berland

6

Just your best guess, who do you think will win the Republican NOMINATION for New York City Mayor?

All

Male Female

Under Staten 50 50+ Manhattan Brooklyn Queens Island

Joe Lhota John Catsimatidis George McDonald Other Don't know
Just your best guess, who do you think will win the Republican NOMINATION for New York City Mayor?

50 24 4 4 18

51 24 5 4 16

48 25 3 4 20

49 23 5 3 20

50 25 3 5 17

62 17 3 5 14

46 22 7 5 20

43 30 3 5 18

55 26 3 1 15

All

Lhota supporters

Catsimatidis supporters

Joe Lhota John Catsimatidis George McDonald Other Don't know VOL
Regardless of who you may support for mayor, which Republican candidate would you trust to do a better job leading the city through a natural disaster like Hurricane Sandy or a terrorist attack?

50 24 4 4 18

70 9 2 2 17

28 58 0 7 8

All

Male Female

Under Staten 50 50+ Manhattan Brooklyn Queens Island

Joe Lhota John Catsimatidis George McDonald Other None Don't know/refused

48 22 3 5 3 19

51 22 2 3 3 18

46 21 4 7 2 20

48 20 3 5 3 21

49 23 3 5 3 18

58 13 5 2 1 21

50 20 5 5 2 19

45 31 2 6 3 14

49 15 0 4 8 23

Penn Schoen Berland

7

Regardless of who you may support for mayor, which Republican candidate would you trust to do a better job leading the city through a natural disaster like Hurricane Sandy or a terrorist attack?

All

Lhota supporters

Catsimatidis supporters

Joe Lhota John Catsimatidis George McDonald Other None VOL Don't know/refused VOL
And if your preferred candidate were to lose the Republican nomination, how likely would you be to consider voting for a Democratic, Independent, or third-party candidate in the November general election for Mayor?

48 22 3 5 3 19

82 3 1 3 1 10

12 69 0 2 4 14

All

Under Staten Male Female 50 50+ Manhattan Brooklyn Queens Island

Very likely Somewhat likely Not very likely Not at all likely Don't know

22 24 14 33 6

17 26 19 33 5

27 23 9 34 7

22 34 16 24 4

22 19 13 39 7

26 26 7 33 8

24 17 17 37 6

19 27 14 31 8

15 22 20 39 4

And if your preferred candidate were to lose the Republican nomination, how likely would you be to consider voting for a Democratic, Independent, or thirdparty candidate in the November general election for Mayor?

All

Lhota supporters

Catsimatidis supporters

Very likely Somewhat likely Not very likely Not at all likely Don't know VOL Penn Schoen Berland

22 24 14 33 6

19 25 16 35 4

18 19 11 44 7 8

Candidate Traits
On a scale from ZERO to TEN, how important it is to have a mayor who… Showing % of respondents who ranked trait as TEN (Extremely Important)

All

Male Female

Under Staten 50 50+ Manhattan Brooklyn Queens Island

Is honest and trustworthy Will be tough on crime and improve public safety Is a problem solver Will manage the city budget effectively Cares about people like you Will prioritize jobs and the economy Will fight for the middle class Will focus on each of the five boroughs equally Will make New York City more affordable Has strong family values Will prioritize education and good public schools Shares your values Will improve city traffic and transportation issues Has served in the City Government Will end the city’s STOPAND-FRISK program Will make the rich pay higher taxes

82 74 72 70 70 61 60 58 58 57 47 44 38 29 18 15

76 67 69 70 62 58 56 57 54 51 46 45 41 21 21 15

86 81 74 70 77 64 65 59 62 63 49 42 35 37 15 15

76 70 75 73 72 65 60 57 56 52 48 40 40 33 12 9

85 76 70 68 69 59 61 58 59 60 47 46 36 27 22 18

74 62 58 52 51 34 32 41 51 30 35 32 17 28 24 10

83 73 68 72 72 68 57 56 63 52 44 50 32 22 8 11

78 79 82 69 80 71 78 54 58 62 46 35 39 32 17 18

90 77 79 77 71 59 63 69 60 70 62 50 55 33 23 12

Penn Schoen Berland

9

On a scale from ZERO to TEN, how important it is to have a mayor who… Showing % of respondents who ranked trait as TEN (Extremely Important)

All

Lhota Supporters

Catsimatidis Supporters

Is honest and trustworthy Will be tough on crime and improve public safety Is a problem solver Will manage the city budget effectively Cares about people like you Will prioritize jobs and the economy Will fight for the middle class Will focus on each of the five boroughs equally Will make New York City more affordable Has strong family values Will prioritize education and good public schools Shares your values Will improve city traffic and transportation issues Has served in the City Government Will end the city’s STOP-ANDFRISK program Will make the rich pay higher taxes

82 74 72 70 70 61 60 58 58 57 47 44 38 29 18 15

81 71 67 73 65 56 53 51 53 50 43 37 29 28 19 10

87 85 79 58 73 62 67 58 58 60 46 47 36 19 14 14

Penn Schoen Berland

10

Leader Favorability
Leader Favorability: Summary Showing % Favorable/ %Unfavorable

All

Male Female

Under 50 50+

Staten Manhattan Brooklyn Queens Island

Joe Lhota Michael Bloomberg John Catsimatidis George McDonald

63/11 64/13 59/38 51/47 53/18 53/20 17/9 19/9

61/9 67/30 52/15 16/8

52/13 69/10 49/48 65/32 48/17 56/18 21/7 15/9

81/7 75/24 53/27 29/8

60/9 60/38 50/12 17/7

56/9 69/14 57/41 47/49 55/17 56/16 18/8 6/8

Individual Favorability
Michael Bloomberg Favorability All Male Female Under Staten 50 50+ Manhattan Brooklyn Queens Island

Very favorable Somewhat favorable Somewhat unfavorable Very unfavorable No opinion/Don't know Never heard of the person

27 32 14 24 3 0

22 28 17 30 2 0

32 35 11 19 3 1

20 29 16 31 4 0

32 34 12 20 2 1

43 31 10 14 1 0

32 28 11 26 1 1

24 33 15 26 2 0

11 35 20 28 5 0

Michael Bloomberg Favorability

All

Lhota Supporters

Catsimatidis Supporters

Very favorable Somewhat favorable Somewhat unfavorable Very unfavorable No opinion/Don't know VOL Never heard of the person

27 32 14 24 3 0

26 33 17 22 2 0

27 30 13 28 2 0

Penn Schoen Berland

11

Joe Lhota Favorability

All

Male Female

Under Staten 50 50+ Manhattan Brooklyn Queens Island

Very favorable 32 Somewhat favorable 30 Somewhat unfavorable 6 Very unfavorable 5 No opinion/Don't know 19 Never heard of the person 7

30 35 7 6 15 8

35 26 5 4 23 7

22 30 9 5 24 10

39 30 5 5 16 5

45 36 5 3 11 1

29 31 4 5 18 13

28 28 6 4 25 9

37 32 9 6 14 3

John Catsimatidis Favorability

All

Male Female

Under Staten 50 50+ Manhattan Brooklyn Queens Island

Very favorable 20 Somewhat favorable 33 Somewhat unfavorable 9 Very unfavorable 9 No opinion/Don't know 21 Never heard of the person 9

22 32 9 11 18 8

18 34 8 7 23 10

12 36 9 9 22 12

24 31 9 9 20 7

19 34 12 15 13 7

22 28 6 6 24 14

17 37 8 8 21 7

22 34 10 7 21 7

George McDonald Favorability

All

Male Female

Under Staten 50 50+ Manhattan Brooklyn Queens Island

Very favorable 4 Somewhat favorable 14 Somewhat unfavorable 5 Very unfavorable 4 No opinion/Don't know 43 Never heard of the person 31

4 15 3 6 43 29

4 12 7 1 44 32

3 17 3 4 44 29

4 11 6 4 43 32

9 20 6 2 43 20

2 15 3 4 45 31

4 14 4 4 41 33

1 5 6 2 54 32

Penn Schoen Berland

12

Mayor Bloomberg
Thinking in general, would you say you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove or strongly disapprove of the job Michael Bloomberg has been doing as Mayor?

All

Male Female

Under Staten 50 50+ Manhattan Brooklyn Queens Island

Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Don't know TOTAL APPROVE TOTAL DISAPPROVE

26 40 14 17 3 66 31

22 39 15 22 2 61 37

30 41 13 12 4 71 25

19 39 16 23 3 58 39

30 41 12 13 3 71 25

39 37 10 11 3 76 21

26 36 18 17 3 62 35

20 48 11 19 2 68 30

21 35 17 20 7 56 37

Overall, do you want the next mayor of New York to generally continue the policies of Mayor Bloomberg OR do you think it is time for a change?

All

Male Female

Under Staten 50+ Manhattan Brooklyn Queens 50 Island

Continue the Bloomberg policies Time for a change Don't know/refused

38 56 6

37 57 6

39 55 6

33 57 10

41 55 4

50 40 10

37 61 2

39 55 6

27 66 6

Penn Schoen Berland

13

Now let me read you some specific policies that were passed during Michael Bloomberg’s time as mayor. For each one, please tell me whether you think it is an excellent, good, just fair, or poor policy for the city. Showing % Excellent/Good vs. % Fair/Poor

All

Male Female

Under Staten 50 50+ Manhattan Brooklyn Queens Island

Banning smoking in public 67/30 64/33 71/28 71/26 65/33 59/41 places Implementing the stopand-frisk program Expanding the city affordable housing plan 61/34 56/39 66/28 58/34 63/33 64/33 50/43 46/46 55/39 48/44 52/42 59/34

75/25 75/22 56/35 56/42 61/32 71/25 58/42 39/54 36/46

The mayor taking direct control over public 49/49 53/46 45/51 47/51 50/47 50/44 education Ending the policy of overnight jail stay for 43/49 45/50 41/49 53/41 37/54 44/50 those arrested with small amounts of marijuana Adding bike lanes throughout the city Trying to ban the sale of sweetened drinks larger than 16 ounces 35/63 34/64 35/62 38/61 33/64 28/68

52/44 52/46 42/58

39/50 43/54 36/49

37/62 41/58 28/67

20/79 12/87 27/72 21/77 19/80 28/70

20/80 20/80 14/83

Penn Schoen Berland

14

Demographics
Gender All Under Male Female 50 50+ Staten Manhattan Brooklyn Queens Island

Male Female

49 51

100 0

0 100

55 45

45 55

46 54

47 53

50 50

51 49

Borough

All

Under Male Female 50

50+

Staten Manhattan Brooklyn Queens Island

Manhattan Bronx Brooklyn Queens Staten Island

18 8 25 31 18

17 9 24 31 19

19 7 26 31 17

14 7 28 31 21
Under 50

21 9 23 31 16

100 0 0 0 0

0 0 100 0 0

0 0 0 100 0

0 0 0 0 100

Age

All

Male Female

50+

Staten Manhattan Brooklyn Queens Island

18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 65+
And do you consider yourself very liberal, somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat conservative, or very conservative?

10 9 19 27 36

13 10 19 29 29

6 7 20 24 42

26 23 51 0 0

0 0 0 43 57

5 5 19 32 39

16 7 19 25 33

8 13 16 28 34

11 5 27 20 37

All

Male Female

Under 50

50+

Staten Manhattan Brooklyn Queens Island

Very liberal Somewhat liberal Moderate Somewhat conservative Very conservative Don't know

3 6 24 39 25 2

3 5 24 41 25 2

4 6 24 38 26 2

3 1 31 42 21 1

4 8 20 38 28 2

8 7 33 31 14 7

4 3 19 43 30 0

0 9 24 41 26 0

2 2 23 44 27 3

Penn Schoen Berland

15

In the November 2009 election for New York mayor, did you vote for:

All

Male Female

Under 50

50+

Staten Manhattan Brooklyn Queens Island

Michael Bloomberg Bill Thompson Other Did not vote Don't know/ refused
Are you or anyone in your household a member of a labor union?

67 15 4 10 4

60 19 5 12 3

74 10 3 8 5

57 20 5 14 3

73 11 4 7 5

72 8 9 4 7

66 14 1 14 4

68 14 4 11 3

59 24 3 9 4

All

Male Female

Under 50

50+

Staten Manhattan Brooklyn Queens Island

Yes No Don't know
What is the highest level of school you have completed or the highest degree you have received?

28 71 1

27 73 1

29 70 1

36 64 0

23 76 1

17 82 0

18 82 1

31 69 0

47 52 1

All

Under Male Female 50

50+

Staten Manhattan Brooklyn Queens Island

1-11 Grade High school diploma or the equivalent Some college College graduate Graduate school Technical school Don't know/refused

2

2

1

1

2

2

0

2

4

16 16 36 27 1 1

14 15 36 29 1 2

18 18 36 25 2 1

14 16 37 31 0 1

18 17 35 25 2 1

4 11 42 39 0 2

27 19 28 25 0 1

11 16 43 26 2 2

13 15 40 23 4 1

Penn Schoen Berland

16

Typically, how do you get to work or school? Do you walk, ride a bike, take the subway, take a bus, take a taxi, or drive a car?

All

Male Female

Under 50

50+

Staten Manhattan Brooklyn Queens Island

Walk Bike Subway Bus Taxi Drive a car Don't know
Do you currently own or rent your primary residence?

14 2 33 17 4 39 17

12 3 34 11 5 46 12

15 2 31 23 4 32 21

21 2 36 15 3 41 7

9 2 31 19 6 38 22

18 3 43 34 10 7 14

24 2 43 15 5 25 14

8 2 25 13 2 61 16

10 4 19 13 3 58 18

All

Male Female

Under 50

50+

Staten Manhattan Brooklyn Queens Island

Own Rent Don't know
Race: Are you of Hispanic, Latino, or Spanish-speaking background? [IF NO] What is your race – white, black, Asian, or something else?

66 32 2

69 29 2

64 35 1

59 39 3

71 28 1

53 47 0

59 39 2

80 19 1

76 21 3

All

Under Male Female 50

50+

Staten Manhattan Brooklyn Queens Island

White Black/AfricanAmerican Latino/Hispanic Asian Native American Pacific Islander Arab American Other Don't know/Refused

74 7 12 3 0 0 0 3 2

75 4 14 2 0 0 0 2 2

72 9 10 3 0 0 0 4 2

75 4 14 4 0 1 0 2 2

73 9 11 2 0 0 0 4 2

75 10 11 0 0 0 0 3 0

69 8 15 1 0 1 0 5 1

75 6 10 7 0 0 0 0 2

90 0 3 0 0 0 0 2 5

Penn Schoen Berland

17

What is your religion?

All

Male Female

Under 50

50+

Staten Manhattan Brooklyn Queens Island

Protestant Catholic Jewish Methodist Baptist Evangelical (include Church of God, Pentecostal, 7th Day Adventist) Non-traditional (include Christian Science, Jehovah’s Witness) Mormon, Latter Day Saints, LDS Muslim Other No religion Don't know/refused

14 48 18 0 1 0

14 45 25 1 1 0

17 52 12 0 1 1

7 49 27 0 0 0

21 48 13 1 2 1

22 28 24 2 0 0

12 38 30 0 2 0

9 57 17 0 0 1

21 68 3 0 0 1

1

1

2

1

1

4

1

1

0

0 1 8 4 4

0 1 7 6 2

0 1 9 2 5

0 1 6 4 4

0 1 10 4 4

0 0 13 4 5

0 0 9 6 4

1 3 8 3 2

0 0 2 2 5

Penn Schoen Berland

18

For statistical purposes only, which of the following categories best represents your current total HOUSEHOLD income before taxes?

All

Male Female

Under 50

50+

Staten Manhattan Brooklyn Queens Island

Less than $25,000 $25,000 to $49,999 $50,000 to $99,999 $100,000 to $149,999 $150,000 and more Don't know/refused
Are you, a family member of yours, or a close friend gay or lesbian?

11 19 29 12 10 18

8 22 28 13 15 14

13 16 30 12 6 22

10 16 27 16 13 19

12 21 31 10 9 18

8 19 33 11 16 14

6 29 24 14 8 19

8 14 30 18 11 20

18 15 24 8 12 24

All

Male Female

Under 50

50+

Staten Manhattan Brooklyn Queens Island

Yes, myself Yes, family member Yes, close friend No Don't know/ refused

3 13 12 72 4

4 11 13 73 4

2 15 11 72 4

5 17 14 66 3

2 10 11 76 4

6 13 16 72 2

3 6 12 76 5

1 14 9 75 2

2 16 16 67 4

Penn Schoen Berland

19

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