CS/OCT2010/QMT500
INSTRUCTIONS TO CANDIDATES 1. 2. This question paper consists of five (5) questions. Answer ALL questions in the Answer Booklet. Start each question on a new page. Do not bring any material into the examination room unless permission is given by the invigilator. Please i) ii) iv) v) check to make sure that this examination pack consists of: the Question Paper an Answer Booklet - provided by the Faculty a two - page Appendix 1 (Key Formulas) Statistical Table - provided by the Faculty
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CS/OCT 2010/QMT500
QUESTION 1 a) A machine makes electrical resistors having a mean resistance of 40 ohms and a standard deviation of 2 ohms. Assume that resistance follows a normal distribution. i) Find the percentage of resistors that will have resistances greater than 44 ohms. (3 marks)
ii) Find the resistance exceeded by 85% of the resistors. (4 marks) iii) A box contains 20 resistors. If a box is randomly chosen, what is the probability that the mean resistance of this sample is less than 40.5 ohms? (3 marks) iv) An electronic device has 6 of these resistors fitted to it. The device is considered malfunctions if at least one of the resistances exceeds 44 ohms. Compute the probability that a randomly chosen electronic device is considered malfunctions. (3 marks)
b) The following table shows the number of errors found in a random sample of 85 software products. The probabilities pi associated with each number of errors are partly shown. Number of errors 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Number of software products 3 14 20 25 14 6 2 0 1
Pi
Complete the missing values for the above table. Do the data provide sufficient evidence to conclude that the number of errors has a Poisson distribution with u = 3? Test at a = 0.01. (7 marks)
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QUESTION 2
a) Two factors, implant dose and furnace position, in a manufacturing process for an integrated circuit were studied to determine their effect on the resistivity of the wafer. The data collected are shown below. Position 2 14.8 13.9 15.3 24.9 24.0 24.1 117
Dose 1
2 Total i)
Total 149
231 380
ii) Complete the following ANOVA table. Source of variation Dose Position Dose x Position Error Total df Sum of squares 42.1111 Mean Square F
451.9778 (6marks)
iii) Is there any interaction effects at the 1% significance level between dose and the position of the furnace? (5 marks) b) The manufacturer of a small battery-powered tape recorder decides to include four alkaline batteries with its product. Two battery suppliers are being considered; each has its own brand (brand 1 and brand 2). The supervising inspector of incoming quality wants to know if the average lifetimes of the two brands are the same. Based on past experience, she believes that the battery lifetimes follow a normal distribution. A sample experiment is conducted: each of ten batteries (five of each brand) is connected to a test device that places a small drain on the battery power and records the battery lifetime. The following results (in hours) are obtained: Brand 1 Brand 2 43 30 48 26 38 37 41 31 51 34 CONFIDENTIAL
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CS/OCT2010/QMT500
i)
Construct the 95% confidence interval on the ratio of the variances of lifetimes of the battery for the two brands. Interpret the confidence interval obtained. (4 marks) Based on the results in i) construct the 95% confidence interval on the difference between the average lifetimes of the two brands. Can the supervising inspector of incoming quality conclude that the average lifetimes of the two brands are equal? (4 marks)
ii)
QUESTION 3 a) A shipment of computer keyboards is inspected for defects before being accepted. The probability that a computer keyboard is defective is 0.04. i) If 9 computer keyboards are inspected, what is the probability that one or two keyboards are defective? (4 marks)
ii) Find the probability that at most 7 computer keyboards from 50 inspected are defective. (3 marks) Suppose one crate contains 100 computer keyboards. iii) How many computer keyboards in a crate would you expect to be defective, and what is the standard deviation? (2 marks) iv) Approximate the probability that from 5 to 10 computer keyboards in a crate are defective. (3 marks)
b) The following table shows the summary of promotion exercises in a large multinational company. Promotion (years) Graduate status Local Overseas
127 150
55 65
61 42
Test at the 5% level of significance whether the promotion exercises depends on the graduate status. (8 marks)
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CS/OCT2010/QMT500
QUESTION 4 a) The following data shows the number of years people smoked and the percentage of lung damage they sustained. Years, x Damage, y i)
22 20
14 14
31 54
36 63
9 17
41 71
19 23
Write the least squares line to estimate percentage of lung damage from number of years smoking. Explain the meaning of the estimated regression coefficients. (3 marks)
ii) Estimate the percentage of lung damage for a person who has been smoking for 30 years. (1 mark) iii) Calculate the coefficient of correlation and explain its value. (2 marks) iv) At the 1% significance level, can we conclude that the linear regression model is significant? (8 marks) b) A certain process produces 100-meter-long sheets of vinyl composed of simulated wood grain top layer and a black bottom layer. A blemish (nonconformity) occurs when the black layer shows through or the wood grain pattern is not distinct. A 10-meter-sample is obtained by trimming the end of a roll, at which the number of blemishes is observed and recorded. It is believed that the number of blemishes per sample follows a Poisson distribution with an average of two blemishes per 10-meter sample. Determine the probability that: i) There will be at least two blemishes observed in a 10-meter sample. (1 mark) ii) There will be at most eight blemishes observed if a 30-meter sample is used. (2 marks) iii) If there are five 10-meter samples taken independently, what is the probability that exactly two of the will have at least two blemishes observed? (3 marks)
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QUESTION 5
a) The R&D department of an industry imposed that the mean life of the light bulbs produced should exceed 4000 hours and with a standard deviation of less than 150 hours before it could be supplied to the markets. A sample 15 bulbs were tested and the length of life are as follows (in hours):
4300 3985 i)
4302 4483
4415 4377
4483 4401
4301 4346
4446 4261
4478 4353
4319
Estimate the mean life of the light bulbs using a 98% confidence interval. (4 marks)
ii)
Do the data indicate that the industry is able to produce the light bulbs with standard deviation of less than 150 hours? Test at the 1% significance level. (6 marks)
iii) Using the above results, is the industry ready to supply the light bulbs? Explain your answer. (2 marks)
b) Mental measurements of young children are often made by giving them blocks and telling them to build a tower as tall as possible. One experiment of block building was repeated a month later, with the times (in seconds) listed in the table below:
Child First trial Second trial 1 30 30 2 19 6 3 19 14 4 24 8 5 29 14 6 178 52 7 42 14 8 20 22 9 12 17 10 39 8 11 14 11 12 81 30 13 17 14 14 31 17 15 52 15
Can we conclude that the child performance is better in the second trial? Test at a = 0.01. (8 marks)
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CS/OCT 2010/QMT500
'rT p x ( 1 _ p ) n - x .
x = 0
1 i 2
CONFIDENCE INTERVALS Parameter & description Mean p. of a normal distribution, variance a 2 unknown Two-sided (1 - ot)100% confidence interval
f
x t a/2
df = n - 1
vVny ^ ;
(xi-x2)ta/2sp^
df = r\-\ + n 2 - 2 ,
1(^-1)8^+(n2-1)s22 sD = . n-) + n 2 - 2
Difference in means of two normal distributions HI - \x2, 2_ variances c-\ * a 22 and unknown
2
+
(xi-x2)ta/2lMn1
df_
S-|
s2
n2
(s22/n2f n9 - 1
Mean difference of two normal distributions for paired samples, \xd Variance a of a normal distribution
d t a/2
(n-l)s2
X
(n-l)s;
'
X
2 a/2
2 1-a/2
df = n - 1
si
S2
2 F S 2 r a/2;vi,V2
2 r a / 2 ; V2,v-|
Vi = n! - 1, v2 = n 2 - 1
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APPENDIX 1(2)
CS/OCT2010/QMT500
Test statistic
_ x-no
S
df = n - 1
_ (x:-x2)-D
^calc i
1
n1
1
n2
df = n, + n 2 - 2 ,
t
sp =
(rM-W+to-W
n-\ + n 2 - 2
Icalc
df_
H 0 : no = D
tcaic = ;
Vn~
H 0 : a = rj 0 (or a = o 0 )
2 _ 2
(n-l)s Xcaic^^^^
d f = n
"
O Oi
- CJ2
"calc
,2 '
Vi = n-i - 1, v2 = n2 - 1
ssR = z ( y i - y ) 2 = P i S xy
i=1
Ex,
where S x y = EXJVJ i=1
V.i=1
U=1
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