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Singapore and Hong Kong, 18 June 2009

Asia Pacific
Global Research

Research Weekly Asia


We continue to favor selected emerging market currencies

Private Banking

Emerging market currencies (EM) have rallied sharply in the Highlights


past few months, supported by the rally in risky assets and
optimism that the global economy has bottomed out (Figure ƒ Emerging market medium-term prospects
1). Signs that China is emerging from the downturn earlier remain supportive.
have also raised expectations of for a certain degree of
decoupling of emerging markets from the developed markets. ƒ Some consolidation is likely in the near term,
We believe that the flushed liquidity situation – due to the given the strong performance since March.
dramatic monetary easing undertaken by the Fed and other
central banks – will continue to favor Asia and other emerging ƒ We continue to see EM currencies as a
markets. To reflect this view, we favor a basket of regionally source of significant portfolio alpha.
diversified, high-yielding emerging market currencies.
Emerging markets (excluding Eastern Europe) broadly ƒ However, at this point of the global economic
have strong fundamentals. In particular, they have manageable cycle, we prefer selective EM currencies that
levels of household and government indebtedness, and their
offer both value and yield attraction.
banks can support domestic demand with new lending. Our
GDP forecasts also anticipate a stronger economic recovery in ƒ We particularly favor the currencies of Brazil,
several Asian and other selected EM economies in 2010
Indonesia, Turkey and South Africa in a
(Figure 2), helped by monetary and fiscal easing. Relatively
low government debt burdens in some of the largest EM stable risk appetite environment.
countries such as China and Russia, imply less pressure for
fiscal consolidation and thus, more scope to support economic ƒ As a group, BRIC countries' currency
growth. Increased access to International Monetary Fund (IMF) appreciation prospects over the next year
financing and swap lines with G3 central banks have also cut may be limited, given the large gains thus far.
the tail risks for more leveraged economies, reducing the
contagion risk for stronger EM countries like Brazil, Mexico
and selected Asian countries.
Top investment ideas
Figure 1
Performance of selected pool of emerging market currencies
Emerging Markets credits:
ZAR
BRL BUY UKRSIB 2010 and 2011 USD-denominated bonds
KRW
COP
HUF Europe: BUY Novartis (NOVN VX)
IDR
PLN Novartis offers robust dividend yield
RUB
MXN
TRY
INR
TWD
SGD
THB
MYR
PHP
CNY
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Gains since March 2009

Source: Credit Suisse, Bloomberg

Important disclosures are found in the Disclosure appendix


Singapore and Hong Kong, 18 June 2009

Figure 2 Figure 3
CSPB's GDP forecasts for emerging markets Equity performance is highly correlated
Real GDP Forecast in % Indexed 1 May 2008 =100
10.0 120
7.5
100
5.0
2.5
80
0.0
-2.5 60
-5.0
-7.5 40

-10.0
20
China
India

Poland

Brazil

Thailand

Taiwan
Colombia
Philippines

Hong Kong
Indonesia

Malaysia
South Africa

Korea

Singapore
Russia

Mexico
Turkey

Hungary
May 08 Aug 08 Nov 08 Feb 09 May 09
MSCI World
MSCI EM Asia
MSCI Latin America
2009 2010 MSCI Emerging market

Source: Credit Suisse Source: Credit Suisse, Bloomberg

Market correction is due, opportunity for cherry picking We believe high-yielding BITS currencies (Brazil,
Indonesia, Turkey and South Africa) will benefit from a
The strong rally in EM currencies since March suggests that global economic recovery
valuations are becoming less attractive and long positions are
becoming crowded. Our in-house EM equity risk appetite With the worst of the global downturn likely behind us and
indicator has already reached "euphoria" level, which suggests major economies slashing rates towards 0%, investors are
that EM equities are vulnerable to corrections (Figure 3). In likely to seek currencies that can stay firm, are underpinned by
addition, with inflation low and growth still weak, few EM solid economic fundamentals, and provide a significant positive
countries currently have a policy incentive to let their carry (Figure 4). In our opinion, within the EM space, the BITS
currencies appreciate substantially above current levels. For currencies (Brazil, Indonesia, Turkey and South Africa) offer
example, in export-dependent Asia, central banks have a the best return to risk ratio. In the upcoming section, we
history of managing their currencies, reflecting a policy highlight our reasons for favoring these currencies. We expect
preference for exchange rate stability and the use of the an outperformance of the BITS currency basket in an
currency as a nominal anchor for the economy. Other environment where the global economy and risk appetite
countries may also use this opportunity to build up their low continue to recover (Figure 5).
reserves levels, such as South Africa, which has only USD 35
bn in reserves. Brazilian real (BRL)
Speculation about a Latvian lats devaluation and possible
contagion across Europe last week shows that investors The strong recovery of the Brazilian real in recent weeks has
should still assign a rather low weighting to Central and made it the top-performing currency this year with an
Eastern European (CEE) currencies in their portfolios, with appreciation of 20% against the USD. We believe the BRL will
very few exceptions. In particular, we view pegged CEE continue to benefit from improved risk appetite as the global
currencies (Baltic States and Bulgaria) and CEE currencies economy recovers and commodity prices pick up. The prudent
with weak fundamentals (e.g., Romania and Hungary) as approach of the Brazilian central bank and government in
being at risk. In the G10 space, the Swedish krona (SEK) recent years have contributed to the relatively quick return of
could be affected via financial contagion, given that 20% of its investors to Brazil. Debt restructuring has made Brazil less
cross-border lending goes to the Baltic States. While vulnerable to devaluations, as the Brazilian government is now
currencies of more solvent economies might suffer temporary a net external creditor. In addition, the Brazilian central bank
setbacks due to contagion, we would view their correction as adopted a cautious approach during the boom phase and has
temporary and hence, potential buying opportunities. intervened to stem BRL appreciations. This has increased the
We would caution investors against chasing the market currency reserve buildup to USD 200 bn. Moreover, Brazil has
higher now and we would look for better entry opportunities in a USD swap facility with the Federal Reserve. The IMF also
selected EM currencies that have solid economic regards Brazil as a possible candidate for the flexible credit
fundamentals, access to sufficient liquidity and high yield. Our loan facility (FCL), which is given only to stable emerging
preference is to focus on selected Latin American, Asian and economies. Nevertheless, a looming major uncertainty in 2010
African currencies. comes from the October 2010 presidential elections (currently
President Lula cannot be re-elected for another term). While it
is too early to speak about the election impact on the BRL, the
event risk needs to be highlighted. However, recent elections
in other EM countries have been encouraging in that they did

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Singapore and Hong Kong, 18 June 2009

not have a major impact on the local currency compared to a markets led to a recent recovery of portfolio inflows but, a
few years ago. For instance, in South Africa, the risk of a global equity market correction could probably interrupt
more left-wing shift in government did not deter the rally of the portfolio inflows. Nevertheless, we view the attractiveness of
rand. high yield and Turkey's improving fundamentals as reasons to
sell the USD/TRY pair when it moves higher. In the short
Indonesian rupiah (IDR) term, a minor negative factor would be the absence of an
agreement on a new USD 25-30 bn IMF loan. On this, we
The Indonesian rupiah has gained 18.6% since March against view that Turkey might be more willing to accept the IMF's
the backdrop of improving risk appetite and favorable domestic conditions, if a prolonged period of falling risk appetite were to
factors. We expect the IDR's relative outperformance in Asia ensue.
to continue for the following reasons - First, the Indonesian
economy has been fairly resilient, making it an outperformer in South African rand (ZAR)
Asia after China and India. We expect Indonesia's balance of
payments inflows to continue to improve gradually this year The South African rand is the second-best performing
due to current account and foreign direct investment (FDI) currency to date this year after the Brazilian real, with an
inflows. Second, the government has manageable fiscal risks. appreciation of 18%. As an African currency far removed from
It has completed 85% of its gross debt issuance for this year, the epicenter of a potential crisis in Central and Eastern
supported by a strong demand for its bonds. Third, President Europe (CEE), with a solid banking industry and less export
Yudhoyono is likely to win the upcoming presidential election in dependence on the EU, the ZAR has managed to outperform
early July, partnering former central bank governor Boediono from an extremely undervalued starting point. However, on a
as his running mate. Fourth, Bank Indonesia's (BI) foreign 3M to 12M horizon, we expect the ZAR to consolidate around
exchange reserves increased only marginally in May, 8.40 versus the USD as central bank governor Mboweni has
confirming its less "interventionist" exchange rate stance. signaled that a further currency appreciation could hurt export
Recent BI comments also indicate that the IDR is undervalued. competitiveness. Hence, we expect the South African Reserve
This, along with expectations that the BI is nearing the end of Bank to intervene to stem a ZAR appreciation, which would in
its rate-cutting cycle, is likely to pressure USD/IDR into turn help to build up the low currency reserves. We expect a
approaching 9,500 in the near term. more sustainable ZAR appreciation beyond the 12M horizon
on the back of a stronger global economic recovery and still
Turkish lira (TRY) relatively cheap valuation. Furthermore, South Africa will host
the 2010 Soccer World Cup and balance of payment inflows
We remain optimistic that the Turkish lira (TRY) will recover are likely to be boosted as investments, domestic demand and
further in the upcoming 3-12 months. The collapse of exports rise.
domestic demand in Turkey, prior to the lira's depreciation,
and our expectations for oil prices to be capped, should narrow While BRICs have led the global recovery, we see limited
the current account deficit further in the coming months. This appreciation prospects for their currencies this year
takes away some refinancing pressure. Moreover, the Turkish
corporate sector might continue to convert some of its USD The BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) have led
cash into TRY as domestic economic prospects improve and the global business cycle in terms of their PMIs improving. We
the lira is still trading near historically low levels. This may lend expect resilient domestic demand growth from these emerging
further support to the TRY. Stabilizing international financial markets to be one of the key driving forces behind the global

Figure 4 Figure 5
Attractiveness of positive carry FX performance of BITS, BRIC and EM regions
in % , annualized Index 2008 = 100
10 160
Depreciation vs. USD
150
8
140
6 130
4 120
110
2
100
0
90
Appreciation vs. USD
-2 80
Jan 08 Mar 08 Jun 08 Sep 08 Dec 08 Mar 09
-4
Turkey Indonesia Brazil South Mexico India China South Latin American currencies Asian currencies
Africa Korea CEE currencies CIS currencies
3M FX forward implied rates BITS BRIC

Source: Credit Suisse, Bloomberg Source: Credit Suisse, Bloomberg

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Singapore and Hong Kong, 18 June 2009

Figure 6 Figure 7
Asian FX forecasts vs. USD EMEA and Latam FX forecasts vs. USD
Currency Currency
vs. USD 12.06.2009 3M* 12M* vs. USD 12.06.2009 3M 12M
USD/SGD 1.45 1.47 1.43 USD/CZK 19.01 17.33 16.88
USD/THB 34.10 35.00 34.00 USD/HUF 198 190 181
USD/IDR 10068 10500 9800 USD/PLN 3.19 2.80 2.59
USD/PHP 47.87 48.00 46.00 USD/TRY 1.53 1.45 1.50
USD/TWD 32.79 33.00 31.50 USD/RUB 30.94 30.60 28.40
USD/KRW 1254 1250 1150 USD/ZAR 8.02 8.40 8.50
USD/INR 47.61 48.00 45.00 USD/BRL 1.93 1.90 1.95
USD/HKD 7.75 7.75 7.75 USD/MXN 13.40 12.50 12.00
USD/CNY 6.84 6.83 6.70 USD/ARS 3.77 3.90 4.10
USD/MYR 3.50 3.55 3.45 *Forecast date: 03.06.2009
*Forecast date: 03.06.2009

Source: Credit Suisse, Bloomberg Source: Credit Suisse, Bloomberg

recovery. However, the appreciation prospects of their high yield is likely to fuel an outperformance of the BITS
currencies are likely to be limited in the coming months. basket against other EM FX baskets. In addition, a BITS
China's central bank (PBoC) is likely to keep the USD/CNY basket is comparatively better than taking a long position in
pair stable between 6.80-6.85 in the coming months until the any single currency (BRL, IDR, TRY or ZAR). Yield levels are
export sector recovers. The Indian rupee has appreciated similar across the four BITS currencies, but a basket strategy
5.6% since the mid-May election victory for the incumbent should help to diversify the risk especially since these
Congress party. However, India's central bank (RBI) has been currencies are each from a different region. Looking ahead, a
intervening to stem the INR's strength after the elections. We possible correction in the global equity markets will impact risk
expect limited further INR gains over the next 12 months to appeitite and EM currencies are also likely to correct versus
45.00 versus the USD. The Russian ruble is expected to trade the USD. This should then provide better entry levels to
sideways in the immediate future due to the still-bleak global position for medium-term appreciation.
economic outlook and oil prices are likely to correct back to
USD 55-60 per barrel. This means that the ruble is likely to
trade around 36 against the FX basket (55% USD and 45% Joe Prendergast, joe.prendergast@credit-suisse.com
EUR). Taking our bearish USD outlook into account, a flat Shivani Tharmaratnam,
basket performance suggests a ruble appreciation against the shivani.tharmaratnam@credit-suisse.com
USD but a depreciation against the EUR. The Brazilian real, in Sven Schubert, sven.schubert@credit-suiss.com
our view, has the most potential among the BRIC currencies to
appreciate in the coming months due to its solid fundamentals
and the fact that it has one of the highest yield in the EM
universe (see Figure 4).

Conclusion
Against a backdrop of still-high market volatility, we
recommend diversifying EM currency exposure across regions
and in particular, across fundamentally strong countries. In
phases of relatively high risk appetite, the attractiveness of

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Singapore and Hong Kong, 18 June 2009

USA market update

US market outlook

The US yield curve has steepened sharply and the 2-year-10-year spread is now very wide by historical standards. Importantly,
much of the impetus for the steepness of the curve comes from the long end of the curve. After the period of extreme risk
aversion in Q4 2008, which led to 10-year yields falling to close to 2%, the improved risk appetite means that investors are
leaving safe havens and investing in risky assets. This is considered to be a positive factor to the extent that it is driving the
increase at the long end of the curve. Of course, rising inflation expectations (a normalization from very low levels) and some
concerns about the sustainability of public finances and reserve diversification out of the US dollar have played a role as well.
However, loosening financial conditions remain the dominant positive. Mortgage rates remain at low levels, despite the recent
pick-up. In addition, US corporate bond yields have been on a downtrend since their November peak. Bond issuance
(investment-grade and sub-investment-grade) and equity issuance have been solid in the past weeks. Furthermore, with the
Fed's TALF program now making an impact, ABS issuance volumes have also increased. Money market rates have broadly
continued their downtrend, which is relevant for floating-rate mortgages. In terms of data releases, this week started with a
downside surprise in the New York Empire index for June, which we view as a temporary setback against an overall trend of
indicators that are likely to remain up.

Thomas Herrmann, thomas.herrmann@credit-suisse.com

Inflation is not something we are worried about in the near term. However, it has now become clear that the US economy is no
longer in a downward spiral, thanks to the unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus. The market's response was a 180-
degree shift, with deflation fears transforming into hopes of reflation, and a growing tendency to worry about inflation. There is
even talk of asset price bubbles.
Sector/industry performance has been relatively consistent during inflationary episodes. Table 1 shows that commodity-linked
industries (oil and mining) typically outperform. The reason is that commodities are a real asset and in limited supply. In addition,
defensive industries (consumer staples, healthcare and utilities) usually do relatively well. Revenue streams and the margins of
many of these companies are somewhat less cyclical, and the eventual monetary policy response to inflation proves to provide a
better environment for these sectors. The increase in interest rates seen during inflation episodes reduces borrowing and
therefore consumption. Consequently, consumer cyclical industries (such as autos, homebuilders and retailers), as well as banks
and brokers typically perform relatively poorly. In general, we would expect these sector outperformance patterns to occur again
on the back of any future inflation concerns.
Paul Danis, paul.danis@credit-suisse.com

Table 1: US Industry performance during the five main inflationary periods since 1973*
Industry Ranking by median Episodes Industry Median return (%) Episodes
return outperformed (%) outperformed (%)
Tobacco 1 100 Real Estate 22 40
Oil & Gas Producers 2 100 Construction & Materials 23 40
Healthcare Providers 3 80 Industrial Transport 24 40
Medical Supplies 4 80 Travel & Leisure 25 40
Oil Equip. & Services 5 80 Software & Computer Services 26 20
Pharma & Biotech 6 80 Medical Equip. 27 20
Utilities 7 80 General Industrials 28 20
Nondurable Household 8 80 Technology hardware & Equip. 29 20
Food Producers 9 60 Banks 30 20
Mining 10 60 Chemicals 31 20
Food & Drug Retail 11 60 Support Services 32 20
Aerospace 12 60 Broadcast & Entertainment 33 20
Telecom 13 60 Forestry & Paper 34 20
Personal Goods 14 60 Publishing 35 20
Defense 15 60 Financial Services (Mostly Brokers) 36 20
Beverages 16 40 Durable Household Products 37 20
Electronic & Electrical 17 40 General Retailers 38 20
Media Agencies 18 40 Home Construction 39 20
Insurance 19 40 Leisure Goods 40 0
Industrial Metals & Mines 20 40 Consumer Finance 41 0
Industrial Engineering 21 40 Autos & Parts 42 0

Source: Credit Suisse, Datastream. *Note: includes Jan. 73 – Feb. 75, Jan. 77 – June 80, Aug. 83 – June 84, Sept. 89 – Feb. 91, and Dec. 03 – Sept. 06.

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Singapore and Hong Kong, 18 June 2009

Investment idea: Novartis (NOVN VX, BUY, Target Price CHF 53)

Fundamentals Thesis:
Novartis is a diversified healthcare company with good underlying growth. Its Pharmaceuticals
division shows solid underlying growth trends as investments in newly launched products start to
deliver. Going forward, we see little regulatory risk and a good ability to deliver on tempered
consensus expectations, despite the loss of patent protection for its top-selling drug, Diovan
(hypertension), starting in 2011 (EU) and likely pressures on the franchise arising from generic
Cozaar (Merck & Co) in 2010. With the acquisition of Alcon, Novartis has already addressed this
major patent loss and, in our view, it is not a question of if but when Novartis will acquire the
remaining stake from Nestlé. The dividend yield of roughly 5% should provide support to the
shares. Novartis' marketed products perform broadly in line with expectations, bolstered by solid
sales growth in emerging markets. However, dramatic currency movements mask the underlying
improvement in trends. Investments in newly launched products, as well as pipeline products in
the Vaccines division (Menveo and especially MenB) represent significant opportunities for
additional growth. Consensus expectations for Tekturna (Diovan follow-on) and FTY-720
(multiple sclerosis) are at reasonable levels. The cost-cutting program, Forward, has delivered
ahead of expectations with the targeted USD 1.3 bn savings by the end of 2009 already
exceeded in Q1 2009. This was key to offsetting the pressures on margins, as profitable
products were lost to generic competition. The company has already put in place multiple new
initiatives to further deliver on an improved profitability, the most notable being the program,
"Compete", which aims to improve margins in the Sandoz division.

Valuation:
Based on our conservative (non-adjusted) assumptions, Novartis' shares are currently trading at a
P/E 2009E/2010E of 11.7 and 11.1 respectively – a premium to the European sector average
of 9.7 and 9.1. Using adjusted (cash) EPS numbers, Novartis trades in line with the sector. In
our HOLT-DCF model, we assume a sales CAGR 2008-2012 of 5.5% (including Alcon from
2011 onward) and roughly flat EBIT margins. From this, we derive our target price of CHF 53.
We have a BUY recommendation on Novartis.

Technicals After a three-month consolidation below the 45 resistance level, the stock is currently re-testing
this key mark. The short and medium-term price trends have turned positive and are supported
by the corresponding momentum cycles. The constructive technical pattern favors a breakout
soon and a resumption of the medium-term upmove. The next key technical resistances are at
46.50, 48 and 50.50.

Thomas C. Kaufmann, thomas.c.kaufmann@credit-suisse.com


Beat Grunder, beat.grunder@credit-suisse.com

Figure 1 Figure 2
Novartis in CHF (weekly bar chart) Novartis in CHF (daily bar chart)
80
75
70
65 50
60
55
45
50
45
40
40

2000 500
1500 0
1000
500 -500
0
-500 -1000
-1000 -1500
-1500
-2000 -2000
-2500
2007 2008 2009 2009 Fe b Mar Apr May Ju n Ju l

See key to charts on page 12 Source: Metastock, Reuters

6
Singapore and Hong Kong, 18 June 2009

Emerging market debts update

Recent news and commentaries

Moody's changed Moody's has changed the outlook on Indonesia's Ba3 sovereign ratings to Positive from Stable.
Indonesia's rating outlook The event was prompted by the country's relatively strong growth prospects, an increasingly
to positive from stable effective macroeconomic policy framework, and an effective and pro-reform policy stance that will
likely outlast the election cycle. The improvement in Indonesia's credit fundamentals was also a
crucial factor in the outlook change, according to Moody's. Both general government and external
debt are expected to decline to 31% and 25% of GDP respectively by the end of 2009, while
Indonesia's GDP is expected to grow by 4% this year, supported by strong domestic demand and
a balanced economy. According to Moody's, "these developments highlight the growing
creditability and predictability of government policies." Overall, the rating agency sees Indonesia's
growth dynamics as steadier and better positioned than many Ba-rated peers and most other
regional economies.

Russian Standard Bank plans Interfax and Reuters News Agency reported that Russian Standard Bank was set to announce a
to buy back some of its 2010 Dutch tender auction to repurchase up to USD 175 million of its 2010 bonds – the RUSB 7.5%
Eurobonds 2010 bond (at a minimum price of USD 87.5) and the RUSB 8.485% 2010 bond (at a minimum
price of USD 92). The total outstanding amount of these two issues is USD 900 million. The fact
that Russian Standard Bank is buying back its own bonds on the secondary market indicates that
the bank does not face any short-term liquidity issues and if it can now offer to buy back bonds at
these levels, it is reasonable to suppose that it should be able to repay at par when these bonds
mature.

Turkey’s central bank cuts its Turkey’s central bank has cut its benchmark interest rate by 50 bp to a record low of 8.75%.
benchmark interest rate by Economists surveyed by Bloomberg were expecting only a 25 bp cut. Over the past eight
50 bp to a record low of months, the central bank has lowered its benchmark rate by a total of 800 bp. In its statement,
8.75% the bank pointed to “clearer signs of an economic recovery,” which may hint at a pause in further
rate cuts.

Ecuador buys back 91% of Ecuador Finance Minister Maria Elsa Viteri said the government bought back 91% of the
its defaulted bonds due in defaulted bonds due in 2012 and 2030 and would re-open its offer to bondholders who did not
2012 and 2030 participate. Ms. Viteri said that 18.7% of the 2012 bondholders and 7.2% of the 2030
bondholders did not participate in the offer.

BUY UkrSibbank 2010 and BNP Paribas (AA/Aa1/AA) increased its stake in Ukraine-based UkrSibbank to 75.5% after
2011 USD-denominated Ukrainian businessman Ernest Galiyev sold his 24.5% stake in the bank. The news is credit-
bonds positive for UkrSibbank on the expectation of strong parent support. As at 30 September 2008,
UkrSibbank reported Tier 1 and total capital adequacy ratios of 12.44% and 15.52%
respectively. As at 1 March 2009, UkrSibbank was the fourth largest bank in Ukraine with
6.34% of the banking system's total assets. It is also the sixth largest bank in the country in
terms of deposits with total market share of 3.94%. In our view, BNP will continue to provide
UkrSibbank with support. We have raised our recommendation on the bank's 2010 and 2011
USD-denominated bonds to BUY from HOLD and recommend emerging market bond investors
add these bonds to diversified portfolios.

Wing-son Cheng, wing-son.cheng@credit-suisse.com


Daniel Tam, daniel.tam@credit-suisse.com

Rating changes
Issuer Current rating Agency Action From To
KazMunaiGaz National BBB-, Watch Neg / Baa2, Watch Neg / BBB- Neg S&P Watch BBB-, Stable BBB-, Watch Neg

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Singapore and Hong Kong, 18 June 2009

Classic recommendations

Classic recommendations
Change ISIN No. Valor Curr. Issuer Rating S&P / Cpn Maturity Vol. Ask Bench Duration YTM (%) Benchmark Asset Swap
Moody’s (%) (m) price spread YTM (%) Spread
CH0021667396 2166739 CHF CIE FINANCEMENT FONCIER AAA / Aaa 1.875 27.04.2012 775 100.75 87.94 2.76 1.60% 0.80% 48.57
CH0048787532 4878753 CHF SANOFI-AVENTIS AA- / A1 3.25 19.12.2012 525 104.70 130.76 3.26 1.85% 1.14% 52.05
CH0049757328 4975732 CHF RABOBANK NEDERLAND AAAe / Aaa 2.5 19.02.2013 850 101.95 92.97 3.45 1.94% 1.14% 41.78
CH0032136399 3213639 CHF PHILIP MORRIS INTL INC A / A2 3.25 11.03.2013 500 102.90 130.14 3.46 2.43% 1.14% 100.16
CH0049666503 4966650 CHF FRANCE TELECOM A- / A3 3.375 06.09.2013 500 103.55 123.45 3.85 2.48% n.a. 108.55
CH0025164739 2516473 CHF SWEDISH EXPORT CREDIT AA+ / Aa1 2.625 12.05.2014 350 101.65 76.85 4.55 2.27% 1.43% 46.64
CH0101108105 10110810 CHF NEDER WATERSCHAPSBANK AAA / Aaa 2.25 13.05.2014 450 101.20 61.20 4.60 1.99% 1.43% 31.58

XS0434069497 10264698 EUR RWE FINANCE BV Ae / A1e 2.5 16.09.2011 1,500 99.90 89.17 2.15 2.55% 1.59% 50.54
XS0430329507 10206935 EUR E.ON INTL FINANCE BV A / A2 2.5 30.11.2011 750 100.13 72.00 2.34 2.45% 1.90% 31.93
XS0419179972 10047726 EUR PHILIP MORRIS INTL INC A / A2 4.25 23.03.2012 1,250 102.61 142.09 2.56 3.24% 1.90% 100.34
FR0010757427 10191010 EUR SFEF AAAe / Aaa 2.125 20.05.2012 5,000 99.47 43.96 2.79 2.31% 1.90% 1.33
DE000A0XXM87 10195443 EUR KFW AAA / Aaa 2.25 21.05.2012 5,000 99.74 40.29 2.79 2.34% 1.90% 0.15
XS0428146442 10174576 EUR SHELL INTERNATIONAL FIN AA+ / Aa1 3 14.05.2013 2,500 99.66 68.31 3.62 3.09% 2.41% 41.43
XS0428037666 10172462 EUR SANOFI-AVENTIS AA- / A1 3.5 17.05.2013 1,500 101.64 65.40 3.60 3.05% 2.41% 38.36
XS0432069747 10234542 EUR PFIZER INC AAA / Aa2 3.625 03.06.2013 1,850 101.16 89.67 3.63 3.31% 2.41% 62.21

XS0247138224 2474545 GBP KFW AAA / Aaa 4.375 07.03.2011 3,050 104.00 60.71 1.66 1.98% 1.41% -17.04
XS0413219899 2632751 GBP GENERAL ELEC CAP CORP AAAe / Aaa 2.75 07.12.2011 1,400 100.96 34.11 2.37 2.34% 2.32% -29.56
XS0413861930 3375876 GBP EUROPEAN INVESTMENT BANK AAA / Aaa 2.875 07.03.2013 1,425 98.62 37.66 3.49 3.27% 2.88% -10.38
XS0414238898 3571481 GBP KFW AAA / Aaa 3.25 24.02.2014 875 98.86 75.11 4.30 3.52% 2.77% -7.47
XS0422703347 10114835 GBP LLOYDS TSB BANK PLC A+ / Aa3 6.375 15.04.2014 403 102.08 318.56 4.07 5.87% 2.77% 235.84
XS0412068453 1555197 GBP NATIONAL GRID PLC BBB+ / Baa1 6.125 15.04.2014 400 102.84 263.97 4.17 5.43% 2.77% 182.75
XS0431040392 10218360 GBP NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK AA / Aa1 5.375 08.12.2014 500 101.60 224.32 4.75 5.04% 2.77% 129.42

US717081CZ40 10048226 USD PFIZER INC AAA / Aa2 4.45 15.03.2012 3,500 105.20 91.82 2.55 2.47% 1.78% 57.66
XS0431986701 10234525 USD BK NEDERLANDSE GEMEENTEN AAAe / Aaa 2.375 04.06.2012 1,500 99.56 77.64 2.85 2.53% 1.78% 31.37
XS0431833119 10234968 USD BNP PARIBAS AA / Aa1 2.875 11.06.2012 700 98.85 154.30 2.85 3.29% 1.78% 109.07
new XS0434415070 10269381 USD E.ON INTL FINANCE BV Ae / A2e 3.125 22.06.2012 300 100.82 106.51 2.87 2.84% 1.78% 64.55
XS0433029906 10250330 USD UNILEVER NV A+ / A1e 3.125 11.02.2013 450 100.86 82.92 3.45 2.88% 2.67% 40.58
XS0412484163 1954578 USD RABOBANK NEDERLAND AAA / Aaa 3.375 19.02.2013 750 100.79 104.10 3.43 3.14% 2.67% 63.80
XS0431157584 10222518 USD KFW AAA / Aaa 2.5 28.05.2013 1,000 98.32 72.45 3.74 2.96% 2.67% 24.31
XS0433908562 10264669 USD BP CAPITAL MARKETS PLC AA / Aa1 3.75 17.06.2013 325 101.14 119.36 3.72 3.44% 2.67% 72.77

out US38141EA331 10161051 USD GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC A / A1 6 01.05.2014 2,115 103.98 238.60 4.17 5.07% 2.67% 199.47

Source: Credit Suisse, Bloomberg

8
Singapore and Hong Kong, 18 June 2009

9
Singapore and Hong Kong, 18 June 2009

10
Singapore and Hong Kong, 18 June 2009

Global equity sector strategy and focus list


Sector Industry Europe/EMEA Switzerland USA/ Asia/Pacific

Global weights
Regional weight: Country weight: Latin America Regional weight:

Asia/Pacific
USA/LatAm
Switzerland
Underweight Underweight Regional weight: Overweight

EU/EMEA
Neutral

Energy Energy O O - O O BG Group, BP, - Anadarko Petroleum, CNOOC


Galp Energia Exxon Mobil, Petrobras
Materials Chemicals N N O N N BASF Syngenta, Lonza - Orica
Construction Materials N N N N N Lafarge - - -
Metals & Mining N O - N N ArcelorMittal - Companhia Vale do Rio Zijin Mining
Doce
Pulp & Paper N N - N N - - - -
Industrials Capital Goods O O N O O Alstom, Siemens - Honeywell China Railway
Construction, IJM,
Mitsui & CO, Sembcorp
Industries
Commercial Services & N N N N N - SGS - -
Supplies
Transportation, incl. Logistics N N N N N - - - Transurban
Consumer Automobiles & Components N N N N U Daimler - - -
discretionary Consumer Durables & N N N U N LVMH - Nike -
Apparel, Textiles, Apparel &
Luxury
Hotels Restaurants & Leisure N N - N N - - McDonald's -
Media N N - N U WPP - Walt Disney -
Retailing N N N U N - Dufry - -
Consumer Food & Staples Retailing N N - N N - - - -
staples Beverages N N - N N Heineken, - PepsiCo -
SAB Miller
Food Products N N N N N - Nestlé General Mills -
Tobacco N N - N N - - Philip Morris -
International
Household & Personal N N - N N Reckitt Benckiser - Procter & Gamble, -
Products Colgate-Palmolive
Healthcare Healthcare Equipment & N O N N N Fresenius Medical - - -
Services Care
Biotechnology N N N N N - - - -
Pharmaceuticals N N N N U Merck KGaA Novartis, Roche Gilead, Medtronic, -
Teva Pharmaceuticals

Financials Banks U U U N N BNP Paribas Julius Baer - Bank of China


Diversified Financials N N N N N - - Goldman Sachs, -
JPMorgan
Insurance U U U N U Allianz Swiss Life Travelers -
Real Estate N N N N N - - - -
IT Software & Services O O N O N - Temenos Oracle Tencent
Technology Hardware & O O N O O Nokia - Cisco Systems, HTC
Equipment Qualcomm
Semiconductors & O N - O O - - Intel TSMC
Semiconductor Equipment
Telecommuni- Diversified Telecoms N N N U N - - - -
cation services Wireless Telecoms U N - U O Vodafone - - China Mobile
Utilities Utilities U U - N N E.ON - - -

Source: Credit Suisse. Legend to weights: O: Overweight, N: Neutral, U: Underweight


This is our sector strategy and focus list as of 17/06/2009 recommended by Credit Suisse, Private Banking division. Our sector strategy shows our sector preferences with
recommendations relative to regional benchmarks: Global: (MSCI World in USD), Europe/EMEA (MSCI Europe in EUR), USA/Latin America (S&P 500 / MSCI USA in USD), Asia/Pacific
(MSCI AC Asia/Pacific in USD). An overweight (underweight) is a recommendation to invest more (less) than in a neutral position indicated by the market-cap weights of the respective
benchmarks. The sector weights as well as the neutral positions in figures are available upon request; please contact your relationship manager. The Focus List is a selection of our favorite
stocks within our coverage which have a BUY recommendation. The selection was made to reflect the sector and regional preferences. Updates are provided via our Research Monthly and
Research Weekly publications as well as in our Equity Strategy Research reports. Additionally, we publish our adds and drops in our Research Equity Daily. The changes are highlighted in
bold.

11
Singapore and Hong Kong, 18 June 2009

Key to technical charts used in this report


1200
1150
11 & 40-day 1140
1100 moving average 1130
1050 1120
1000 1110
950 1100
11-week 40-week 900 1090
moving average moving average 850 1080
800 1070
Medium-term Short- and 1060
750
momentum medium- term
3000 300
2000
momentum
200
1000 100
0 0
Long-term -1000 -100
-2000 -200
momentum -3000 -300
2002 2003 2004 2005 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

Source: Metastock, Reuters

Moving averages are popular and versatile for identifying Stop loss rules: Stop losses are based on the 3-month
price trends. They smooth out fluctuations in market prices, historical volatility. If 2 x weekly standard deviation is <= 5% of
thereby making it easier to determine underlying trends. Their the stock price at inception, then a stop loss will be set at -
other function is to signal significant changes in direction as 5%. If 2x standard deviation is >= 5% of the stock price since
early as possible. Generally, if the market were in an uptrend inception, then a stop loss will be set at – 2 times standard
or downtrend, a longer time period would be used. If it is deviations. At the start of a trade, the stop loss is applied per
consolidating, the shorter time frame will catch the minor recommendation, i.e. for the whole group of stocks comprised
moves more easily. Moving averages are lagging indicators in the same recommendation. Once the whole trade turns
and give signals after the price trend has already turned. positive and the stop loss moves to positive territory, we apply
Momentum indicators lead the price trend. They give signals a new stop loss on an individual basis, i.e. per stock and not
before the price trend turns. Once momentum provides a per recommendation. For long/short positions, please note
signal, it has to be confirmed by a moving-average crossover. that as of 20.09.05, the stop loss applies to the performance
For a short introduction to technical analysis, we refer readers spread between long and positions and will be expressed in
to “TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EXPLAINED” at percentage terms.
http://www.credit-suisse.com/techresearch Weighting: All recommendations will have a full weight
Please note that due to local regulatory requirements access with the following exceptions: 1) A single stock
to these weblinks may be restricted for clients in certain recommendation will have systematically a weight of 0.5 if the
countries. stop loss at inception is at - 5%; 2) A single stock
recommendation will have systematically a weight of 0.25 if
the stop loss at inception is < -5%; 3) A group of stocks (i.e.,
a recommendation comprising more than one stock), where all
stop losses at inception are < -5% will systematically have a
weight of 0.5.

12
Singapore and Hong Kong, 18 June 2009

Imprint
Publisher
Fan Cheuk Wan Head of Research Asia Pacific Tel: +852 2841 4841 E-mail: cheukwan.fan@credit-suisse.com
Authors
Fan Cheuk Wan Head of Research Asia Pacific Tel: +852 2841 4841 E-mail: cheukwan.fan@credit-suisse.com
Kum Soek Ching Head of Southeast Asia Equity Research Tel. +65 6212 6065 E-mail: soekching.kum@credit-suisse.com
Joseph Tan Asian Chief Economist Tel: +65 6212 6727 E-mail: joseph.tan@credit-suisse.com
Shivani Tharmaratnam FX Strategist Asia Pacific Tel: +65 6212 6482 E-mail: shivani.tharmaratnam@credit-suisse.com
Wing-son Cheng Head of Fixed Income Research Asia Pacific Tel. +852 2841 4881 E-mail: wing-son.cheng@credit-suisse.com
Daniel Tam Emerging Market Bonds Analyst Tel. +852 3407 8058 E-mail: daniel.tam@credit-suisse.com
Lili Fan Emerging Markets Bond Analyst Tel. +852 3407 8257 E-mail: lili.fan@credit-suisse.com
Marc-Antoine Haudenschild Japan Equity Strategist Tel. +81 3 4550 5132 E-mail: marc-antoine.haudenschild@credit-suisse.com
David McDonald Australia Equity Strategist Tel. +61 2 8205 4296 E-mail: david.mcdonald@credit-suisse.com
Simon Clark Australia Equity Analyst Tel. +61 2 8205 4314 E-mail: simon.clark@credit-suisse.com
Michael Macdonald Asian Technical Analyst Tel. +65 6212 6655 E-mail: michael.macdonald@credit-suisse.com
Maggie Yeo Southeast Asia Equity Analyst Tel. +65 6212 6070 E-mail: maggie.yeo@credit-suisse.com
Justin Yeoh Southeast Asia Equity Analyst Tel. +65 6212 6072 E-mail: justin.yeoh@credit-suisse.com
Irene Chow Greater China Equity Strategist Tel: +852 2841 4036 E-mail: irene.chow@credit-suisse.com
Timothy Fung China Equity Strategist Tel: +852 2841 4812 E-mail: timothy.fung@credit-suisse.com
Yu Wen Chi China Equity Analyst Tel: +852 3407 8245 E-mail: wenchi.yu@credit-suisse.com
Michael Mak Korea and Taiwan Equity Analyst Tel. +852 3407 8268 E-mail: michael.mak@credit-suisse.com
Alfred Chow Marketing Analyst Asia Pacific Tel. +852 3407 8243 E-mail: alfred.c.chow@credit-suisse.com
Silvia Fun Research Assistant Tel: +852 2841 8285 E-mail: silvia.fun@credit-suisse.com
Angelina Chang Global Metal & Mining Equity Strategist Tel. +65 6212 6071 E-mail: angelina.chang@credit-suisse.com
Michael O'Sullivan Head of Global Asset Allocation & UK Research Tel. +44 20 7883 8228 E-mail: michael.o'sullivan@credit-suisse.com
Olivier Müller Head of Consumer Staples Team Tel. +41 44 333 01 46 E-mail: olivier.p.mueller@credit-suisse.com
Paul Danis US Equity Strategist Tel. +44 20 7883 2458 E-mail: paul.danis@credit-suisse.com
Herrmann Thomas Global Economist Tel. +41 44 333 50 62 E-mail: thomas.herrmann@credit-suisse.com
Toral Munshi India Equity Strategist Tel. +91 22 6777 3842 E-mail: toral.munshi@credit-suisse.com
Chirag Shah India Equity Analyst Tel. +91 22 6777 3841 E-mail: chirag.shah@credit-suisse.com
Adam Quek Research Assistant Tel: +65 6212 6067 E-mail: adam.quek@credit-suisse.com
Editor
Silvia Fun Research Assistant Tel: +852 2841 8285 E-mail: silvia.fun@credit-suisse.com
Ratings: Credit Suisse
Prices: Bloomberg

Information about other research publications


Credit Suisse E-Mail Internet Intranet
Research & Publications publications.research@credit-suisse.com http://www.credit- Credit Suisse employees only
Uetlibergstrasse 231 suisse.com/research http://research.csintra.net
P.O. Box 300
CH-8070 Zurich

13
Singapore and Hong Kong, 18 June 2009

Abbreviations frequently used in reports


Abb. Description Abb. Description Abb. Description
CAGR Compound annual growth rate EPS Earnings per share P/B Price-to-book value
CFO Cash from operations EV Enterprise value P/E Price-earnings ratio
CFROI Cash flow return on investment FCF Free cash flow PEG P/E ratio divided by growth in EPS
DCF Discounted cash flow FFO Funds from operations ROE Return on equity
EBITDA Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization IBD Interest-bearing debt ROIC Return on invested capital

BP (BP/ LN) BUY since 28/04/2009


Disclosure appendix
BUY since 03/02/2009
Analyst certification BUY since 28/10/2008
The analysts identified in this report hereby certify that views about the companies HOLD since 29/07/2008
and their securities discussed in this report accurately reflect their personal views
HOLD since 29/04/2008
about all of the subject companies and securities. The analysts also certify that no
CHINA CONSTRUCTION BANK - A
part of their compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the BUY since 02/04/2009
(601939 CH)
specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report.
CHINA MOBILE (941 HK) BUY since 30/04/2009
Important disclosures BUY since 21/04/2009
Credit Suisse policy is to publish research reports, as it deems appropriate, based on BUY since 20/03/2009
developments with the subject company, the sector or the market that may have a
BUY since 21/10/2008
material impact on the research views or opinions stated herein. Credit Suisse policy
is only to publish investment research that is impartial, independent, clear, fair and BUY since 21/10/2008
not misleading. BUY since 12/09/2008
BUY since 28/08/2008
The Credit Suisse Code of Conduct to which all employees are obliged to adhere, is
BUY since 28/08/2008
accessible via the website at:
https://www.credit-suisse.com/governance/en/code_of_conduct.html BUY since 26/05/2008
CHINA RAILWAY CONSTRUCTION BUY since 29/04/2009
For more detail, please refer to the information on independence of financial (CRC) - H (1186 HK) BUY since 27/11/2008
research, which can be found at:
CISCO SYSTEMS (CSCO US) BUY since 07/05/2009
https://www.credit-suisse.com/legal/pb_research/independence_en.pdf
BUY since 05/02/2009
The analyst(s) responsible for preparing this research report received compensation BUY since 06/11/2008
that is based upon various factors including Credit Suisse's total revenues, a portion BUY since 03/11/2008
of which are generated by Credit Suisse Investment Banking business.
BUY since 17/09/2008
BUY since 06/08/2008
Equity rating history as of 18/06/2009 BUY since 07/05/2008
Company Rating Date CNOOC LTD (883 HK) BUY since 12/06/2009
ASCENDAS REAL ESTATE BUY since 21/04/2009 BUY since 01/04/2009
INVESTMENT TRUST (AREIT SP) BUY since 16/01/2009 BUY since 01/04/2009
BUY since 20/10/2008 BUY since 21/01/2009
HOLD since 28/07/2008 BUY since 29/10/2008
HOLD since 05/05/2008 BUY since 28/08/2008
BANGKOK BANK PUBLIC COMPANY BUY since 05/06/2009 BUY since 28/03/2008
LIMITED (BBL TB) BUY since 20/02/2009 COLGATE-PALMOLIVE (CL US) BUY since 04/05/2009
BUY since 13/11/2008 BUY since 16/02/2009
BUY since 10/09/2008 BUY since 29/01/2009
BUY since 08/04/2008 HOLD since 30/10/2008
BANK OF CHINA - H (3988 HK) BUY since 29/04/2009 BUY since 29/07/2008
BUY since 12/01/2009 BUY since 01/05/2008
BUY since 29/08/2008 DANONE (BN FP) BUY since 29/05/2009
BUY since 29/04/2008 BUY since 29/05/2009
BNP PARIBAS (BNP FP) BUY since 07/05/2009 BUY since 26/05/2009
BUY since 06/05/2009 BUY since 17/04/2009
BUY since 23/02/2009 BUY since 16/04/2009
HOLD since 27/01/2009 BUY since 13/02/2009
HOLD since 18/12/2008 BUY since 11/02/2009
HOLD since 17/12/2008 BUY since 06/11/2008
HOLD since 11/11/2008 BUY since 22/10/2008
HOLD since 05/11/2008 BUY since 22/10/2008
HOLD since 31/10/2008 BUY since 25/07/2008
BUY since 06/10/2008 BUY since 25/07/2008
BUY since 06/08/2008 HOLD since 25/06/2008
BUY since 06/08/2008 HOLD since 20/06/2008
BUY since 11/06/2008 HOLD since 20/06/2008
BUY since 06/05/2008

14
Singapore and Hong Kong, 18 June 2009

E.ON (EOAN GY) BUY since 27/05/2009 BUY since 20/08/2008


BUY since 16/03/2009 BUY since 16/07/2008
BUY since 10/03/2009 BUY since 20/06/2008
BUY since 12/02/2009 BUY since 16/04/2008
BUY since 11/02/2009 KELLOGG (K US) BUY since 04/05/2009
BUY since 13/11/2008 BUY since 25/02/2009
BUY since 14/08/2008 BUY since 05/02/2009
BUY since 05/08/2008 BUY since 12/01/2009
BUY since 14/05/2008 BUY since 29/10/2008
FRANCE TELECOM (FTE FP) HOLD since 29/04/2009 BUY since 22/09/2008
BUY since 02/04/2009 HOLD since 31/07/2008
BUY since 30/10/2008 HOLD since 01/05/2008
BUY since 31/07/2008 LLOYDS TSB (LLOY LN) HOLD since 10/06/2009
BUY since 31/07/2008 SELL since 20/05/2009
BUY since 30/06/2008 SELL since 08/05/2009
HOLD since 05/06/2008 SELL since 07/04/2009
GENERAL ELECTRIC CO (GE US) HOLD since 17/04/2009 HOLD since 20/11/2008
HOLD since 02/03/2009 SELL since 03/11/2008
SELL since 20/01/2009 SELL since 18/09/2008
HOLD since 18/12/2008 SELL since 30/07/2008
HOLD since 02/12/2008 HOLD since 24/06/2008
HOLD since 19/11/2008 HOLD since 08/05/2008
HOLD since 10/10/2008 LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS BUY since 28/04/2009
HOLD since 06/10/2008 VUITTON (MC FP) HOLD since 27/04/2009
HOLD since 26/09/2008 HOLD since 09/02/2009
HOLD since 18/09/2008 HOLD since 13/10/2008
HOLD since 15/09/2008 HOLD since 04/08/2008
HOLD since 11/07/2008 HOLD since 30/07/2008
HOLD since 11/04/2008 HOLD since 14/07/2008
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC (GS US) BUY since 14/04/2009 BUY since 16/04/2008
SELL since 16/12/2008 MAANSHAN IRON & STEEL CO LTD - H BUY since 30/04/2009
SELL since 10/11/2008 (323 HK) BUY since 22/04/2009
SELL since 24/09/2008 HOLD since 02/03/2009
SELL since 22/09/2008 HOLD since 15/10/2008
SELL since 18/09/2008 BUY since 15/08/2008
HOLD since 16/09/2008 BUY since 02/05/2008
BUY since 17/06/2008 MITSUI & CO. (8031 JP) BUY since 27/05/2009
HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL INC BUY since 28/04/2009 BUY since 08/05/2009
(HON US) BUY since 02/02/2009 BUY since 24/04/2009
BUY since 15/12/2008 BUY since 04/02/2009
BUY since 17/10/2008 BUY since 06/11/2008
BUY since 18/07/2008 BUY since 05/08/2008
BUY since 29/05/2008 BUY since 03/07/2008
HTC CORPORATION (2498 TT) BUY since 04/05/2009 BUY since 06/02/2008
BUY since 01/08/2008 NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK (NAB AU) HOLD since 29/04/2009
HOLD since 06/05/2008 HOLD since 20/02/2009
IJM CORP (IJM MK) BUY since 11/06/2009 HOLD since 20/02/2009
BUY since 24/04/2009 HOLD since 12/02/2009
BUY since 26/02/2009 BUY since 11/11/2008
BUY since 23/12/2008 BUY since 22/10/2008
BUY since 22/12/2008 BUY since 28/07/2008
INDOFOOD SUKSES MAKMUR BUY since 01/06/2009 BUY since 18/06/2008
TERBUKA (INDF IJ) BUY since 05/05/2009 NATIONAL GRID (NG/ LN) HOLD since 12/06/2009
BUY since 09/01/2009 HOLD since 11/12/2008
HOLD since 05/11/2008 HOLD since 22/01/2007
HOLD since 11/01/2008 NESTLE (NESN VX) BUY since 22/04/2009
INTEL (INTC US) BUY since 21/04/2009 BUY since 22/04/2009
BUY since 15/04/2009 BUY since 14/04/2009
BUY since 16/01/2009 BUY since 12/03/2009
BUY since 07/01/2009 BUY since 12/03/2009
BUY since 13/11/2008 BUY since 19/02/2009
BUY since 15/10/2008 BUY since 19/02/2009

15
Singapore and Hong Kong, 18 June 2009

BUY since 07/01/2009 HOLD since 06/02/2009


BUY since 23/10/2008 HOLD since 27/01/2009
BUY since 23/10/2008 BUY since 21/10/2008
BUY since 24/09/2008 BUY since 10/10/2008
BUY since 22/09/2008 HOLD since 30/09/2008
BUY since 04/09/2008 HOLD since 24/07/2008
BUY since 07/08/2008 HOLD since 17/04/2008
BUY since 07/08/2008 PHILIP MORRIS INTERNATIONAL (PM BUY since 24/04/2009
BUY since 04/08/2008 US) BUY since 04/02/2009
BUY since 09/07/2008 BUY since 22/10/2008
BUY since 08/07/2008 BUY since 23/07/2008
BUY since 08/07/2008 BUY since 23/04/2008
BUY since 30/06/2008 POSCO (005490 KS) BUY since 07/05/2009
BUY since 30/06/2008 HOLD since 14/04/2009
BUY since 19/06/2008 HOLD since 16/01/2009
BUY since 17/06/2008 HOLD since 15/10/2008
NINTENDO (7974 JP) BUY since 08/05/2009 BUY since 14/07/2008
BUY since 30/01/2009 BUY since 14/04/2008
BUY since 04/11/2008 RECKITT BENCKISER (RB/ LN) BUY since 28/04/2009
HOLD since 28/04/2008 BUY since 13/02/2009
NOKIA OYJ (NOK1V FH) BUY since 16/04/2009 BUY since 12/02/2009
BUY since 16/04/2009 BUY since 27/10/2008
BUY since 09/04/2009 BUY since 28/07/2008
HOLD since 23/01/2009 BUY since 30/04/2008
HOLD since 04/12/2008 ROYAL DUTCH SHELL-A (RDSA NA) HOLD since 29/04/2009
HOLD since 18/11/2008 HOLD since 29/01/2009
HOLD since 14/11/2008 HOLD since 30/10/2008
HOLD since 17/10/2008 HOLD since 31/07/2008
HOLD since 16/10/2008 HOLD since 29/04/2008
HOLD since 08/09/2008 RWE (RWE GR) HOLD since 15/05/2009
HOLD since 08/09/2008 BUY since 14/05/2009
BUY since 05/09/2008 BUY since 27/02/2009
BUY since 21/07/2008 BUY since 26/02/2009
BUY since 17/07/2008 BUY since 14/01/2009
BUY since 25/06/2008 BUY since 12/11/2008
HOLD since 17/04/2008 BUY since 11/11/2008
NOVARTIS (NOVN VX) BUY since 24/04/2009 BUY since 15/08/2008
HOLD since 23/04/2009 BUY since 14/08/2008
HOLD since 29/01/2009 BUY since 16/05/2008
HOLD since 28/01/2009 SANOFI-AVENTIS (SAN FP) HOLD since 29/04/2009
HOLD since 20/10/2008 HOLD since 13/02/2009
HOLD since 20/10/2008 HOLD since 03/11/2008
HOLD since 18/07/2008 HOLD since 31/10/2008
HOLD since 17/07/2008 HOLD since 31/07/2008
HOLD since 10/07/2008 HOLD since 01/05/2008
HOLD since 04/06/2008 SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES (SCI SP) BUY since 28/05/2009
ORACLE (ORCL US) BUY since 28/04/2009 BUY since 04/03/2009
BUY since 21/04/2009 BUY since 10/11/2008
BUY since 27/03/2009 BUY since 05/09/2008
BUY since 19/03/2009 SIEMENS (SIE GY) BUY since 30/04/2009
BUY since 19/12/2008 BUY since 29/04/2009
BUY since 25/09/2008 HOLD since 27/01/2009
BUY since 19/09/2008 HOLD since 27/01/2009
BUY since 25/06/2008 HOLD since 13/11/2008
BUY since 27/03/2008 HOLD since 30/07/2008
ORICA LTD (ORI AU) BUY since 05/05/2009 HOLD since 09/07/2008
BUY since 05/02/2009 HOLD since 30/04/2008
BUY since 11/11/2008 SINGAPORE AIRLINES LIMITED (SIA SP) BUY since 29/05/2009
BUY since 02/10/2008 BUY since 27/03/2009
HOLD since 25/07/2008 BUY since 11/02/2009
BUY since 29/04/2008 BUY since 19/12/2008
PFIZER (PFE US) HOLD since 29/04/2009 SWISSCOM (SCMN VX) BUY since 06/05/2009

16
Singapore and Hong Kong, 18 June 2009

BUY since 06/05/2009 HOLD since 21/07/2008


BUY since 13/03/2009 HOLD since 13/05/2008
BUY since 04/03/2009 VALE SA ADR PFD (VALE/P US) BUY since 12/06/2009
BUY since 05/11/2008 BUY since 08/05/2009
BUY since 05/11/2008 BUY since 26/02/2009
BUY since 17/10/2008 BUY since 11/12/2008
BUY since 13/08/2008 BUY since 18/08/2008
BUY since 13/08/2008 RESTRICTED since 10/07/2008
BUY since 19/05/2008 BUY since 07/04/2008
SYNGENTA (SYNN VX) BUY since 16/04/2009 ZIJIN MINING GROUP COMPANY LTD - BUY since 22/04/2009
BUY since 15/04/2009 H (2899 HK) BUY since 23/03/2009
BUY since 06/02/2009 BUY since 23/03/2009
BUY since 06/02/2009 BUY since 03/11/2008
BUY since 08/01/2009 BUY since 01/08/2008
BUY since 24/10/2008 BUY since 07/04/2008
BUY since 23/10/2008
BUY since 24/07/2008
As at the end of the preceding month, Credit Suisse beneficially owned 1% or more
HOLD since 24/07/2008 of a class of common equity securities of (SIEMENS, ZIJIN MINING GROUP
HOLD since 22/04/2008 COMPANY LTD - H, BANK OF CHINA - H, FRANCE TELECOM, NATIONAL
TELEFONICA SA (TEF SM) BUY since 13/05/2009 AUSTRALIA BANK, NATIONAL GRID, NESTLE, NOKIA OYJ).
For the following disclosures, references to Credit Suisse include all of the
BUY since 13/05/2009
subsidiaries and affiliates of Credit Suisse AG, the Swiss bank, operating under its
BUY since 16/03/2009 Investment Banking division.
BUY since 14/11/2008 The subject issuer (ASCENDAS REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST, BANGKOK
BUY since 31/07/2008 BANK PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED, ORICA LTD, PFIZER, PHILIP MORRIS
INTERNATIONAL, POSCO, RECKITT BENCKISER, ROYAL DUTCH SHELL-A,
BUY since 15/05/2008
RWE, SANOFI-AVENTIS, SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES, SIEMENS, SINGAPORE
TENAGA NASIONAL BHD (TNB MK) BUY since 12/06/2009 AIRLINES LIMITED, SWISSCOM, SYNGENTA, TELEFONICA SA, TENAGA
BUY since 21/04/2009 NASIONAL BHD, TENCENT HOLDINGS LIMITED, TEVA (ADR), TSMC,
HOLD since 20/01/2009 UNILEVER, VALE SA ADR PFD, ZIJIN MINING GROUP COMPANY LTD - H,
BANK OF CHINA - H, BNP PARIBAS, BP, CHINA CONSTRUCTION BANK - A,
HOLD since 20/10/2008
CHINA RAILWAY CONSTRUCTION (CRC) - H, CISCO SYSTEMS, CNOOC LTD,
SELL since 12/06/2008 COLGATE-PALMOLIVE, DANONE, E.ON, FRANCE TELECOM, GENERAL
TENCENT HOLDINGS LIMITED (700 HK) BUY since 18/05/2009 ELECTRIC CO, GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC, HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL
TERMINATED since 28/01/2009 INC, HTC CORPORATION, IJM CORP, INDOFOOD SUKSES MAKMUR
TERBUKA, INTEL, KELLOGG, LLOYDS TSB, LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS
HOLD since 14/11/2008 VUITTON, MAANSHAN IRON & STEEL CO LTD - H, MITSUI & CO., NATIONAL
HOLD since 23/10/2008 AUSTRALIA BANK, NATIONAL GRID, NESTLE, NOKIA OYJ, NOVARTIS,
TEVA (ADR) (TEVA US) BUY since 05/05/2009 ORACLE) currently is, or was during the 12-month period preceding the date of
distribution of this report, a client of Credit Suisse.
BUY since 20/02/2009
Credit Suisse provided investment banking services to the subject company
BUY since 06/11/2008 (ASCENDAS REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST, ORICA LTD, PFIZER, PHILIP
BUY since 29/07/2008 MORRIS INTERNATIONAL, POSCO, RECKITT BENCKISER, ROYAL DUTCH
BUY since 06/05/2008 SHELL-A, RWE, SANOFI-AVENTIS, SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES, SIEMENS,
SINGAPORE AIRLINES LIMITED, SWISSCOM, SYNGENTA, TELEFONICA SA,
TRANSURBAN GROUP (TCL AU) BUY since 05/05/2009
TENAGA NASIONAL BHD, TENCENT HOLDINGS LIMITED, TEVA (ADR),
BUY since 19/02/2009 UNILEVER, VALE SA ADR PFD, ZIJIN MINING GROUP COMPANY LTD - H,
BUY since 14/01/2009 BANK OF CHINA - H, BNP PARIBAS, BP, CHINA CONSTRUCTION BANK - A,
BUY since 29/08/2008 CHINA RAILWAY CONSTRUCTION (CRC) - H, CISCO SYSTEMS, CNOOC LTD,
COLGATE-PALMOLIVE, DANONE, E.ON, FRANCE TELECOM, GENERAL
BUY since 20/06/2008
ELECTRIC CO, GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC, HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL
BUY since 13/06/2008 INC, HTC CORPORATION, IJM CORP, INDOFOOD SUKSES MAKMUR
TSMC (2330 TT) BUY since 02/04/2009 TERBUKA, INTEL, KELLOGG, LLOYDS TSB, LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS
HOLD since 04/03/2009 VUITTON, MAANSHAN IRON & STEEL CO LTD - H, MITSUI & CO., NATIONAL
AUSTRALIA BANK, NATIONAL GRID, NESTLE, NOKIA OYJ, NOVARTIS,
HOLD since 23/01/2009 ORACLE) within the past 12 months.
HOLD since 31/10/2008 Credit Suisse provided non-investment banking services, which may include Sales
HOLD since 22/08/2008 and Trading services, to the subject issuer (ASCENDAS REAL ESTATE
INVESTMENT TRUST, BANGKOK BANK PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED, PFIZER,
HOLD since 01/08/2008
PHILIP MORRIS INTERNATIONAL, RWE, SIEMENS, SYNGENTA, TELEFONICA
HOLD since 30/04/2008 SA, TENCENT HOLDINGS LIMITED, TEVA (ADR), TSMC, VALE SA ADR PFD,
UNILEVER (UNA NA) HOLD since 07/05/2009 BNP PARIBAS, BP, CISCO SYSTEMS, DANONE, E.ON, FRANCE TELECOM,
HOLD since 07/05/2009 GENERAL ELECTRIC CO, GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC, HONEYWELL
INTERNATIONAL INC, INDOFOOD SUKSES MAKMUR TERBUKA, INTEL,
HOLD since 10/02/2009
LLOYDS TSB, LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON, MITSUI & CO.,
HOLD since 05/02/2009 NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK, NESTLE, NOKIA OYJ) within the past 12 months.
HOLD since 30/10/2008 Credit Suisse has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for the
HOLD since 30/10/2008 subject issuer (PFIZER, PHILIP MORRIS INTERNATIONAL, RWE, SWISSCOM,
TELEFONICA SA, TSMC, UNILEVER, VALE SA ADR PFD, BANK OF CHINA - H,
HOLD since 04/09/2008
BNP PARIBAS, BP, CHINA CONSTRUCTION BANK - A, CHINA RAILWAY
HOLD since 31/07/2008 CONSTRUCTION (CRC) - H, CISCO SYSTEMS, CNOOC LTD, COLGATE-
HOLD since 31/07/2008 PALMOLIVE, DANONE, E.ON, FRANCE TELECOM, GENERAL ELECTRIC CO,
HOLD since 28/07/2008 GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC, INDOFOOD SUKSES MAKMUR TERBUKA,
LLOYDS TSB, LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON, MAANSHAN IRON &

17
Singapore and Hong Kong, 18 June 2009

STEEL CO LTD - H, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK, NESTLE, NOKIA OYJ, For further information, including disclosures with respect to any other issuers, please
ORACLE) within the past three years. refer to the Credit Suisse Global Research Disclosure site at:
Credit Suisse has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for the http://www.credit-suisse.com/research/disclaimer
subject issuer (PFIZER, PHILIP MORRIS INTERNATIONAL, SWISSCOM,
UNILEVER, VALE SA ADR PFD, BANK OF CHINA - H, BNP PARIBAS, BP,
CHINA CONSTRUCTION BANK - A, CHINA RAILWAY CONSTRUCTION (CRC) -
Guide to analysis
H, CISCO SYSTEMS, CNOOC LTD, FRANCE TELECOM, GENERAL ELECTRIC
CO, LLOYDS TSB, MAANSHAN IRON & STEEL CO LTD - H, NESTLE, NOKIA Equity rating allocation as of 18/06/2009
OYJ) within the past 12 months. Overall Investment banking
Credit Suisse has received investment banking related compensation from the interests only
subject issuer (ORICA LTD, PFIZER, PHILIP MORRIS INTERNATIONAL, RECKITT
BUY 31.18% 32.67%
BENCKISER, ROYAL DUTCH SHELL-A, RWE, SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES,
HOLD 60.54% 59.39%
SIEMENS, SINGAPORE AIRLINES LIMITED, SWISSCOM, SYNGENTA,
TELEFONICA SA, UNILEVER, VALE SA ADR PFD, BANK OF CHINA - H, BNP SELL 7.50% 7.18%
PARIBAS, BP, CHINA CONSTRUCTION BANK - A, CHINA RAILWAY RESTRICTED 0.78% 0.76%
CONSTRUCTION (CRC) - H, CISCO SYSTEMS, CNOOC LTD, COLGATE-
PALMOLIVE, DANONE, E.ON, FRANCE TELECOM, GENERAL ELECTRIC CO, Relative stock performance
INDOFOOD SUKSES MAKMUR TERBUKA, INTEL, LLOYDS TSB, LVMH MOET At the stock level, the selection takes into account the relative attractiveness of
HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON, MAANSHAN IRON & STEEL CO LTD - H, individual shares versus the sector, market position, growth prospects, balance-sheet
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK, NESTLE, NOKIA OYJ, NOVARTIS, ORACLE) structure and valuation. The sector and country recommendations are “overweight,”
within the past 12 months. “neutral”, and “underweight” and are assigned according to relative performance
Credit Suisse has received compensation for products and services other than against the respective regional and global benchmark indices.
investment banking services from the subject issuer (ASCENDAS REAL ESTATE
INVESTMENT TRUST, BANGKOK BANK PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED, PFIZER, Absolute stock performance
PHILIP MORRIS INTERNATIONAL, RWE, SIEMENS, SYNGENTA, TELEFONICA The stock recommendations are BUY, HOLD and SELL and are dependent on the
SA, TENCENT HOLDINGS LIMITED, TEVA (ADR), VALE SA ADR PFD, BNP expected absolute performance of the individual stocks, generally on a 6-12 months
PARIBAS, BP, CISCO SYSTEMS, DANONE, E.ON, FRANCE TELECOM, horizon based on the following criteria:
GENERAL ELECTRIC CO, GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC, HONEYWELL
INTERNATIONAL INC, INDOFOOD SUKSES MAKMUR TERBUKA, INTEL, BUY: 10% or greater increase in absolute share price
LLOYDS TSB, LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON, MITSUI & CO., HOLD: variation between -10% and +10% in absolute share price
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK, NESTLE, NOKIA OYJ) within the past 12 months. SELL: 10% or more decrease in absolute share price
Credit Suisse expects to receive or intends to seek investment banking related RESTRICTED: In certain circumstances, internal and external regulations
compensation from the subject issuer (ASCENDAS REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT exclude certain types of communications, including e.g. an
TRUST, BANGKOK BANK PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED, ORICA LTD, PFIZER, investment recommendation during the course of Credit Suisse
PHILIP MORRIS INTERNATIONAL, POSCO, RECKITT BENCKISER, ROYAL engagement in an investment banking transaction.
DUTCH SHELL-A, RWE, SANOFI-AVENTIS, SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES, TERMINATED: Research coverage has been concluded.
SIEMENS, SINGAPORE AIRLINES LIMITED, SWISSCOM, SYNGENTA,
TELEFONICA SA, TENAGA NASIONAL BHD, TENCENT HOLDINGS LIMITED, Absolute bond recommendations
TEVA (ADR), TRANSURBAN GROUP, TSMC, UNILEVER, VALE SA ADR PFD, The bond recommendations are based fundamentally on forecasts for total returns
ZIJIN MINING GROUP COMPANY LTD - H, BANK OF CHINA - H, BNP versus the respective benchmark on a 3–6 month horizon and are defined as follows:
PARIBAS, BP, CHINA CONSTRUCTION BANK - A, CHINA RAILWAY
CONSTRUCTION (CRC) - H, CISCO SYSTEMS, CNOOC LTD, COLGATE- BUY: Expectation that the bond issue will outperform its specified
PALMOLIVE, DANONE, E.ON, FRANCE TELECOM, GENERAL ELECTRIC CO, benchmark
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC, HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL INC, HTC HOLD: Expectation that the bond issue will perform in line with the
CORPORATION, IJM CORP, INDOFOOD SUKSES MAKMUR TERBUKA, INTEL, specified benchmark
KELLOGG, LLOYDS TSB, LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON, SELL: Expectation that the bond issue will underperform its specified
MAANSHAN IRON & STEEL CO LTD - H, MITSUI & CO., NATIONAL AUSTRALIA benchmark
BANK, NATIONAL GRID, NESTLE, NINTENDO, NOKIA OYJ, NOVARTIS, RESTRICTED: In certain circumstances, internal and external regulations
ORACLE) within the next three months. exclude certain types of communications, including e.g. an
As at the date of this report, Credit Suisse acts as a market maker or liquidity investment recommendation during the course of Credit Suisse
provider in the securities of the subject issuer (TEVA (ADR), CISCO SYSTEMS, engagement in an investment banking transaction.
INTEL, ORACLE).
Credit Suisse holds a trading position in the subject issuer (ASCENDAS REAL
ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST, BANGKOK BANK PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED, Credit Suisse HOLT
ORICA LTD, PFIZER, PHILIP MORRIS INTERNATIONAL, POSCO, RECKITT With respect to the analysis in this report based on the HOLT(tm) methodology,
BENCKISER, ROYAL DUTCH SHELL-A, RWE, SANOFI-AVENTIS, SEMBCORP Credit Suisse certifies that (1) the views expressed in this report accurately reflect
INDUSTRIES, SIEMENS, SINGAPORE AIRLINES LIMITED, SWISSCOM, the HOLT methodology and (2) no part of the Firm's compensation was, is, or will be
SYNGENTA, TELEFONICA SA, TENAGA NASIONAL BHD, TENCENT directly related to the specific views disclosed in this report. The Credit Suisse HOLT
HOLDINGS LIMITED, TEVA (ADR), TRANSURBAN GROUP, TSMC, UNILEVER, methodology does not assign ratings to a security. It is an analytical tool that involves
VALE SA ADR PFD, ZIJIN MINING GROUP COMPANY LTD - H, BANK OF use of a set of proprietary quantitative algorithms and warranted value calculations,
CHINA - H, BNP PARIBAS, BP, CHINA CONSTRUCTION BANK - A, CHINA collectively called the Credit Suisse HOLT valuation model, that are consistently
MOBILE, CHINA RAILWAY CONSTRUCTION (CRC) - H, CISCO SYSTEMS, applied to all the companies included in its database. Third-party data (including
CNOOC LTD, COLGATE-PALMOLIVE, DANONE, E.ON, FRANCE TELECOM, consensus earnings estimates) are systematically translated into a number of default
GENERAL ELECTRIC CO, GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC, HONEYWELL variables and incorporated into the algorithms available in the Credit Suisse HOLT
INTERNATIONAL INC, HTC CORPORATION, IJM CORP, INDOFOOD SUKSES valuation model. The source financial statement, pricing, and earnings data provided
MAKMUR TERBUKA, INTEL, KELLOGG, LLOYDS TSB, LVMH MOET by outside data vendors are subject to quality control and may also be adjusted to
HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON, MAANSHAN IRON & STEEL CO LTD - H, MITSUI more closely measure the underlying economics of firm performance. These
& CO., NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK, NATIONAL GRID, NESTLE, NINTENDO, adjustments provide consistency when analyzing a single company across time, or
NOKIA OYJ, NOVARTIS, ORACLE). analyzing multiple companies across industries or national borders. The default
scenario that is produced by the Credit Suisse HOLT valuation model establishes the
baseline valuation for a security, and a user then may adjust the default variables to
produce alternative scenarios, any of which could occur. The Credit Suisse HOLT
Additional disclosures for the following jurisdictions
methodology does not assign a price target to a security. The default scenario that is
produced by the Credit Suisse HOLT valuation model establishes a warranted price
Hong Kong: Other than any interests held by the analyst and/or associates as
for a security, and as the third-party data are updated, the warranted price may also
disclosed in this report, Credit Suisse Hong Kong Branch does not hold any
change. The default variables may also be adjusted to produce alternative warranted
disclosable interests. United Kingdom: For fixed income disclosure information for
prices, any of which could occur. Additional information about the Credit Suisse
clients of Credit Suisse (UK) Limited and Credit Suisse Securities (Europe) Limited,
HOLT methodology is available on request.
please call +41 44 333 33 99.

18
Singapore and Hong Kong, 18 June 2009

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19