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Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| September 10, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Overview Precious Metals Energy Base Metals Important Events for today

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Currencies and Commodities Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Commodities Daily Report


Tuesday| September 10, 2013

International Commodities
Overview
Asian equities trading higher on upbeat Chinese economic data Euro Zones Sentix Investor Confidence rose to 6.5 6.5-level in September Chinas Trade Balance increased to 28.6 Billion Yuan in August August. Economic data from China is expected to come on the positive side, with forecasts showing a rise in fixed asset investment, industrial production and retail sales. Taking cues from these expectations, the Asian equities are trading ading on a positive note and if the data comes as per forecasts, then market sentiments could become stronger. In yesterdays trade, the Dollar Index closed in the negative territory as risk appetite in the global markets prevented gains in the currency. On Monday, the Dollar index declined around 0.4 percent and closed at 81.79. Equities in the US closed sharply higher yesterday, with the Nasdaq ending at its highest level since September 2000. Positive economic data from China had lifted sentiments acros across the board and along with the easing concerns over military steps towards Syria also added positivity. The measures and announcements by the newly appointed RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan came to the rescue of the Rupee last week. Between 3rd-6th Sep13, the e Rupee appreciated by around 3.5 percent and closed the last week at 65.24. Sentiments in the domestic markets also turned positive last week and the Sensex jumped more than 1000 points in the three days to Friday. The RBI is continuing to prevent the Rupee upee from falling further with a slew of measures and actions. On Friday, the RBI announced that non nonresident investors could purchase shares of listed domestic companies through stock exchanges under the foreign direct investment route. For the month of September 2013, FII outflows totaled at Rs. Rs.882.0 crores th ($135.03 million) as on 6 September 2013. Year to date basis, net th capital inflows stood at Rs.61051.80 crores ($11718.30 11718.30 million) till 6 September 2013. UKs Asset Purchase Facility remained unchanged at 375 Billion Pounds. Official Bank Rate remained unchanged at 0.5 percent. NIESR GDP Estimate gained 0.9 percent in August as against a gain of 0.7 percent in July.

Market Highlights (% change)


Last INR/$ (Spot)* 65.24 Prev day 0.0

as on September 9, 2013 w-o-w 1.2 m-o-m -7.4 y-o-y -14.7

$/Euro (Spot)

1.3254

0.6

0.5

-0.9

5.0

Dollar Index NIFTY*

81.80

-0.5 0.5

-0.4

0.5

2.9

5680.4

0.0

2.1

2.1

8.4

SENSEX*

19270.1

1.5

2.6

2.6

5.4

DJIA

15063.1

0.9

1.7

-2.3

13.2

S&P

65.24

0.0

1.2

-7.4

-14.7

Source: Reuters

p on Monday as The Euro witnessed gains of around 0.6 percent positive economic data supported gains in the currency. The Sentix Investor Confidence turned positive for the first time in more than two years and supported the Euro. Investor sentiment in the Euro Zone jumped 6.5 points, marking the highest level since May 2011 and sharply up from -4.9 points in August13. Japans Current Account declined to 0.33T in July from 0.65T in June. Final GDP rose to 0.9 percent in the quarter ended June as compared to a gain of 0.6 percent in the first quarter. Final GDP Price Index declined by 0.5 percent in the quarter ended June as compared ared to a decline of 0.3 percent in the first quarter. Consumer Confidence declined to 43-mark 43 in August from 43.6 level in July. Economy Watchers Sentiment declined to 51.2-mark mark in August from 52.3 level in July.

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Commodities Daily Report


Tuesday| September 10, 2013

International Commodities
Bullion Gold
Gold prices slipped in the red on Monday as market sentiments towards the yellow metal became skeptical ahead of the FOMC monetary policy review that is scheduled on the 17th 17th-18th Sep13. Expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon withdraw its quantitative easing program are keeping a check on gold prices that had witnessed a relief rally since the last month. G Gold prices in the international markets declined around 0.3 percent to close at $1386/oz. In the last week, gold prices in the Indian markets had declined by 0.6 percent mainly due to Rupee appreciation. Market Highlights - Gold (% change)
Gold Gold (Spot) Unit $/oz Last 1386.2 Prev. day -0.3 as on September 9, 2013 WoW -0.6 MoM 5.7 YoY -18.5

Gold (Spot Mumbai) Gold (LBMA-PM Fix) Comex Gold (Oct13) MCX Gold (Oct13)

Rs/10 gms $/oz

31700.0

-0.3

13.2

13.2

6.4

1390.0

0.2

-0.2

7.1

-18.3

$/oz

1386.7

1.0

-0.7

3.9

-18.6

Silver
Silver prices witnessed a decline of 0.7 percent yesterday and closed at $23.66/oz. however, sharp fall was prevented due to rise in copper prices yesterday. Being an industrial metal, positive economic data from China also supported silver.

Rs /10 gms

31540.0

-1.0

-4.6

13.0

0.2

Source: Reuters

Market Highlights - Silver (% change)


Silver Silver (Spot) Silver (Spot Mumbai) Silver (LBMA) Comex Silver (Dec13) MCX Silver (Sept13) Unit $/oz Rs/1 kg Last 23.7 54300.0 Prev day -0.7 -2.6

as on September 9, 2013 WoW -1.9 28.5 MoM 17.1 28.5 YoY -27.5 -0.7

Outlook
In todays trade, we expect gold ld prices to trade with a negative bias as sentiments towards the commodity weaken ahead of the FOMC monetary policy review. However, in case of silver, we expect the trend to be positive today as upbeat economic data from China along with upside in base metal prices will act as a supportive factor for the white metal. Technical Outlook
Unit Spot Gold MCX Gold Oct13 Spot Silver MCX Silver Sept13 $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz Rs/kg valid for September 10 10, 2013

$/oz $/ oz

2364.0 23.7

2.6 -0.7

-1.4 -2.9

19.8 10.9

-28.1 -29.5

Rs / kg

54117.0

-1.3

-1.5

28.1

-13.2

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Spot Gold


Support 1380/1375 31370/31200 23.32/23 53600/53350 Resistance 1390/1397 31670/31840 23.75/24 54280/54680

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report


Tuesday| September 10, 2013

International Commodities
Energy Crude Oil
Crude oil prices came under pressure on Monday as expectations of no major military action on Syria led to pressure on prices. US Secretary of State John Kerry suggested that instead of military action, Syria could hand over the chemical weapons. This move was also supported by Russia and taking cues from the same, crude oil prices slipped as this would reduce the risk of geopolitical tensions spreading to other Middle East nations. The near-month Nymex crude oil contract declined around 0.9 percent to close at Rs.109.5/bbl. The delay in decision-making making towards the Syrian crisis also led to sharp downside pressure on Brent crude oil prices, which declined around 2 percent, marking losses higher than the decline seen in Nymex oil prices. Another factor that at added pressure on oil prices was the news that oil production in Libya had bounced back to 600,000 barrels per day due to start-up up of facilities at all oil fields. Export terminals are also expected to be open by the middle of the next week, thus overal overall reducing the fear of supply disruption from the country. MCX crude declined by around 1.7 percent to close at Rs.7056/bbl on account of appreciation in the Rupee. Outlook On the back of slow progress towards actions against Syria and due to expectations that no major military action will happen in the immediate-term, term, oil prices are likely to witness downside pressure in todays trading session. Also, restart of oil producing facilities in Libya has also reduced supply threats from the country and this factor will be additionally negative for prices.
Source: Telequote

Market Highlights - Crude Oil (% change)


Crude Oil Brent (Spot) Nymex Crude (Oct 13) ICE Brent Crude (Sep13) MCX Crude (Sep 13) Unit $/bbl $/bbl Last 117.2 109.5 Prev. day -1.6 -0.9

as on September 9, 2013 WoW 0.7 1.7 MoM 8.1 3.2 YoY 2.5 13.6

$/bbl

113.7

-2.1

-0.5

6.6

0.2

Rs/bbl

7056.0

-1.7

-1.9

13.2

32.2

Source: Reuters

Market Highlights - Natural Gas (% change)


Natural Gas (NG) Nymex NG MCX NG (Sep 13) Unit $/mmbtu Rs/ mmbtu Last 3.609 231.3 Prev. day 1.0 -3.4

as on September 9, 2013 MoM 12.19 17.00 YoY 34.16 55.65


Source: Reuters

WoW 0.59 -4.06

Technical Chart NYMEX Crude Oil

Technical Outlook
Unit NYMEX Crude Oil MCX Crude Sep13 $/bbl Rs/bbl

valid for September 10 10, 2013 Support 108.20/107.70 6990/6930 Resistance 109.40/110 7100/7160

Technical Chart NYMEX Natural Gas

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report


Tuesday| September 10, 2013

International Commodities
Base Metals
Base metals pack on the LME traded on a mixed note due to upbeat global market sentiments and positive trade balance data from China. Copper led the base metals pack with gains of 0.6 percent on the LME on Monday. In the Indian markets, appreciation in the Rupee led to fall in prices on the MCX. Market Highlights - Base Metals (% change)
Unit LME Copper (3 month) MCX Copper Rs/kg 473.4 -0.18 -4.6 7.9 9.2 $/tonne Last 7205.0 as on September 9, 2013 WoW -0.5 MoM -8.2 YoY -6.5

Prev. day 0.63

Copper
LME Copper prices gained 0.6 percent yesterday yesterday, mainly taking positive cues from upbeat economic data from China and weakness in the DX. Further, upbeat pbeat global market sentiments and 0.9 percent decline in inventories, which stood at 5,94,625 tonnes tonnes, also supported an upside in prices. The red metal touched an intraday high of $7243/tonne and closed at $7205/tonne on Mon Monday. In the Indian markets, the MCX near-month copper contract declined by 0.2 percent due to Rupee appreciation. The metal closed at Rs.473.4/kg in yesterdays trading session. In the last week, LME Copper declined by 0.5 percent due to ongoing military tensions between the US and Syria and a 2 percent weekly gain in LME inventories. Outlook In todays session, we expect base metals prices to trade on a positive note on the back of weakness in the DX and expectations of positive economic data from China. However, in n the Indian markets, appreciation in the Rupee will prevent sharp gains in prices on the MCX.

(Nov13) LME Aluminum (3 month) MCX Aluminum (Sep13) LME Nickel (3 month) MCX Nickel (Sep13) LME Lead (3 month) MCX Lead (Sep13) LME Zinc (3 month) MCX Zinc (Sep13)
Source: Reuters

$/tonne

1807.3

-0.8

-1.7

-2.0

-8.5

Rs /kg

114.6

-1.5

-5.9

4.1

5.1

$/tonne

13940.0

0.1

1.2

-2.6

-13.3

Rs /kg

896.3

-0.8

-3.1

3.2

-0.1

$/tonne

2157.0

0.5

-1.2

0.9

5.3

Rs /kg

138.0

-0.5

-5.7

6.3

22.0

$/tonne

1886.3

-0.5

-1.5

-0.5

-1.0

Rs /kg

120.1

-1.2

-5.9

5.5

14.2

LME Inventories
Unit Copper tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes 9th September 594,625 5,370,350 215,388 985,375 182,375 6th September 600,275 5,375,450 215,538 984,475 183,400 Actual Change -5,650 -5,100 -150 900 -1,025 (%) Change -0.9 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.6

Technical Outlook
Unit MCX Copper Nov13 MCX Zinc Sep13 MCX Lead Sep 13 MCX Aluminum Sep13 MCX Nickel Sep 13 Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg

valid for September 10 10, 2013 Support 470/467 119.30/118.50 137.30/136.60 113.7/113 885/878 Resistance 476/479 120.80/121.60 138.50/139.20 115.20/116 905/915

Aluminum Nickel Zinc Lead

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart LME Copper

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report


Tuesday| September 10, 2013

International Commodities
Important Events for Today
Indicator Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes Tertiary Industry Activity m/m Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y Industrial Production y/y French Industrial Production m/m BOE Credit Conditions Survey JOLTS Job Openings

Japan Japan China China Euro UK US

5:20am 5:20am 11:00am 11:00am 12:15pm 2:00pm 7:30pm

-0.4% -

-0.4% -

-0.5 0.5% 20.1% 9.7% -1.4% 1.4% 3.94M

Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium

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