Global Perspective. Innovative Research. Superior Results.




This memo summarizes key findings from a poll of 300 PA Senate District 24 likely voters conducted June 15-16, 2009.

Key Findings
Images and Initial Ballot All three of the possible Republican nominees test fairly similarly. While Bruce Castor starts with slightly more name ID, Bob Mensch and Jay Moyer are not far behind. This is currently due to geographic areas, with Bob Mensch and Jay Moyer not as well known outside of Montgomery County. It is surprising given Bruce Castor’s elective positions in Montgomery County over the years that his overall name ID is not stronger and that he starts with 18% unfavorables. Of note, Bruce Castors highest unfavorables are with women, especially women 65+. Jay Moyer’s numbers are not bad considering a full scale campaign of negative attacks in 2008 to oust him of his state house seat. Bob Mensch starts at about the same place as Jay Moyer as far as name ID in the Special Election. The initial ballot shows all three possible Republican nominees in equal position. Bruce Castor (16% definite, 16% probable 8% lean), Jay Moyer (14% definite, 15% probable and 6% lean), Bob Mensch (12% definite. 15% probable and 5% lean). All of the numbers show all of the candidates with little name ID outside of Montgomery County, therefore the above initial ballot should be of no surprise, with the exception that one would have thought, as said above, that Bruce Castor would likely lead by much more considering his elective positions held in Montgomery County over the years. Informed Ballot  After voters are given more information about the candidates, support for Bruce Castor plummets 10%. Voters are particularly angered when they learn of Bruce Castor’s exploiting of a loophole in a county rule which allowed him to cash in on
1319 Classen Drive • Oklahoma City, OK 73103 324 Second Street, SE •Washington, DC 20003 405.286.6500 • fax 405.286.6454

© 2009 WRS Do not copy or distribute without permission

unused vacation and sick time. In total, 63% of the voters are less likely to vote for Bruce Castor after being made aware of this message. The message is even stronger outside of Montgomery County. Bucks County (64% less likely), Lehigh County (74%) and Northampton County (63%).  Also of note, this message is most effective among self described Moderates and Liberal voters, and among GOP women, Dem women and Independent men.

 Given the messages tested on all of the candidates Bruce Castor will have the most difficult time winning PA SD 24. Once voters become aware of his exploitation of a county rule loophole allowing him to cash in on unused sick and vacation time, all his soft support will vanish. The messages tested against Jay Moyer and Bob Mensch have no effect on their ballot position. The best candidates for the Special Election in PA Senate District 24 are Jay Moyer and Bob Mensch.

 

Wilson Research Strategies conducted a research study of likely voters in Pennsylvania State Senate District 24. Respondents were contacted by phone via a live telephone operator interview June 15-16, 2009. The study has a sample size of n=300 likely special election voters. The margin of error is equal to ±5.66% in 95 out of 100 cases for the special election voters. The sample was stratified to represent the special election electorate in PA SD 24 based on race, age, gender, and geographic distribution.

About Wilson Research Strategies
Since 1998, WRS has been a leading provider of political polling for campaigns from Mayor and City Council to Governor and U.S. Senate in 47 states and several foreign countries. In 2007-2008 alone, WRS conducted polling in 252 races for campaigns, caucuses and independent expenditure efforts. In addition to our political and policy research, WRS provides donor research to Christian and other not-for-profits and alumni research to colleges and universities. More than 200 Christian and other not-for-profit organizations around the country and dozens of large and small colleges and universities have relied on WRS’s data and analysis. WRS’s corporate research arm has provided market research to more than 100 of the Fortune 500 and to hundreds of small and medium businesses nationwide.


Page 2 of 2


Sign up to vote on this title
UsefulNot useful