You are on page 1of 3

Commodities Evening Update

Thursday| September 12, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Day’s overview Market Highlights Outlook Important Events for Today

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd. Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000 MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302

Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from “Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd”. Your feedback is appreciated on commodities@angelbroking.com

Commodities Evening Update
Thursday| September 12, 2013

International Commodities
News and Analysis • Euro Zone Industrial Production declined by 1.5 percent in July. • German WPI declined by 0.6 percent in the month of August. • Italian Industrial Production declined by 1.1 percent in July. European markets traded on a negative note today on the back of unfavorable economic data from the region. Asian markets ended on a mixed note and US futures are trading in the red. German WPI declined by 0.6 percent in August as against a decline of 0.3 percent in July. French CPI gained 0.5 percent in August as compared to a decline of 0.3 percent in July. Italian Industrial Production declined by 1.1 percent in July as compared to a gain of 0.2 percent in June. Euro Zone Industrial Production declined by 1.5 percent in July as compared to a gain of 0.6 percent in June. Spot gold prices declined 1.7 percent today on the back of weak global market sentiments and fall in SPDR Gold holdings. However, weakness in the DX prevented sharp decline in prices. In the Indian markets, gold declined by around 0.6 percent due to Rupee appreciation. Spot silver prices declined by more than 2 percent, taking cues from decline in gold and base metals group and weak global market sentiments. However, further downside was prevented due to weakness in the DX. On the MCX, silver declined around 1.2 percent due to Rupee appreciation and touched an intraday low of Rs.51300/kg till 4:30pm IST. The base metals pack traded on a negative note today as concersn of QE taper widen before FOMC meet and unfavorable economic data from the Euro Zone. Weak global market sentiments added to the downside. However, weakness in the DX prevented further downfall. On the MCX, appreciation in the Rupee also acted as a negative factor. LME Copper prices declined percent on the back of weak global market sentiments coupled with negative economic data from the Eurozone. However, decline in LME copper inventories by 0.9 percent which stood at 579,750 tonnes cushioned sharp fall. The near month copper contract declined by 0.6 percent and hovered at Rs.461.90/kg till 4:30 pm IST. Nymex crude oil prices gained 1 percent as investors weigh Syria concerns as to whether military strikes by the US will be averted and weakness in the DX. However, weak global market sentiments capped sharp gains. MCX crude oil contract declined 0.3 percent due to appreciation in the Rupee. Performance during the day
Index Nifty Sensex Nikkei Kospi FTSE Open High

as at 4.30 pm – 12 September ’13
Low Last % Chg from Prev day

5931.15 20046.05 14397.90 2004.67 17544.69

5932.00 20052.05 14455.37 2017.48 17630.39

5815.80 19676.49 14321.57 1995.16 17381.89

5850.70 19781.88 14387.27 2004.06 17381.89

-1.06 -1.08 -0.26 0.01 -0.47
Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm – 12 September’13
Currency Dollar Index Euro/$ Spot INR/$ Spot Open High Low Current % Chg from Prev day

81.49 1.3308 63.25

81.59 1.3324 63.97

81.405 1.3282 62.91

81.525 1.3295 63.69

0.00 -0.11 0.68
Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm – 12 September’13
Commodity Spot Gold Comex Gold Oct’13 MCX Gold – Oct’13 Spot Silver Comex Silver Dec’13 MCX Silver – Dec’13 Crude Oil Nymex – Oct ‘13 ICE -Brent Crude Oil MCX Crude Oil Sep ’13 Copper LME - 3 Month MCX Copper Nov’13 Zinc LME - 3 Month Zinc MCX - Sep’13 Lead LME - 3 Month Lead MCX - Sep’13 Nickel LME - 3 Month Nickel MCX Sep’13 Aluminum LME - 3 Month Aluminum MCX Sep’13 Unit Open High Low Last % Chg from Prev day

$/oz $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz $/oz

1366.54 1360.00 30551.00 23.13 0.23125 52140 107.77 111.51 6845 7185.00 463.55 1876.50 117.50 2129 134.00 13800 878.00 1805.25 112.40

1366.64 1360.00 30679.0 23.18 0.2314 52325 108.70 112.45 6967 7185.00 466.40 1881.00 118.85 2132 135.25 13800 878.00 1807.25 113.60

1338.29 1342.00 30176.0 22.52 0.22585 51300 107.30 111.33 6821 7057.25 460.65 1861.00 116.80 2102 133.10 13650 867.00 1791.75 112.10

1342.74 1342.00 30411.00 22.66 0.2268 51807 108.64 112.40 6947 7071.75 461.90 1864.75 117.70 2105 133.75 13674 874.00 1796.50 112.95

-1.71 -1.61 -0.88 -2.16 -1.91 -1.21 1.00 0.81 1.19 -1.29 -0.63 -0.55 0.00 -0.99 -0.45 -0.75 0.06 -0.37 0.22

Rs/kg $/bbl

$/bbl Rs/bbl $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne

Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg

Source: Reuters

Commodities Evening Update
Thursday| September 12, 2013

International Commodities
Outlook In today’s trade, we expect precious metals to trade with a negative bias as sentiments weaken ahead of the FOMC monetary policy review. Crude oil prices will trade on a mixed note and investors are concerned whether US will be able to prevent military action on Syria. Base metals are expected to trade on a negative note today on the back of unfavorable economic data from Euro Zone along with forecast for rise in US jobless claims data.

Technical Outook for evening session – 12 September ’13 ( CMP as of 4.30 pm)
Commodity Gold Oct'13 Spot Gold Silver Dec’13 Spot Silver Crude Oil Sep’13 Nymex Crude Oil Oct’13 Natural Gas Sep’13 LME Copper Copper Nov’13 Zinc Sep’13 Lead Sep’13 Aluminum Sep’13 Nickel Sep’13 Unit Rs/10 gm $/oz Rs /kg $/oz Rs /bbl $/bbl Rs /mmbtu $/tonne Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Support 2 Support 1 CMP Resistance1 Resistance 2

30050 1331 50900 22.30 6850 106.8 222 7050 458 116 132 111 856

30200 1338 51350 22.5 6890 107.3 225 7080 460 116.8 133 112 865

30435 1343.5 51807 22.68 6944 108.3 227.8 7100 463.6 118 133.95 113.2 875.2

30600 1354 52250 22.90 6990 108.7 230 7140 466 119.2 135 114 882

30820 1364 52700 23.2 7040 109.3 233 7190 470 120.3 136.2 115 892

Important Events for Today
Indicator Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

Core Machinery Orders m/m ECB Monthly Bulletin Industrial Production m/m Inflation Report Hearings ECB President Draghi Speaks Unemployment Claims Import Prices m/m FOMC Member Dudley Speaks Federal Budget Balance

Japan Euro Euro UK Euro US US US US

5:20am 1:30pm 2:30pm 2:30pm 5:10pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:30pm 11:30pm

0.0% -1.5% -

2.5% -0.1% 332K 0.6% -155.3B

-2.7% 0.6% 323K 0.2% -97.6B

Medium Medium Medium High High High Medium Medium Medium