Fahlino Sjuib, Ph.D.

Presentation at the International Seminar on the Demographic Bonus LIPI - Jakarta August 22, 2013

• Current Global Economic Overview • Global Employment Condition • Mapping Global Jobs • What type of jobs that are growing? • Where are the jobs? • Challenges in the global job market • Where we are and what should we do? • Conclusion
*April 2013 IMF World Economic Outlook

• Global economic prospects have improved although
unemployment rate is still high in many countries

• World output growth: 3.25% in 2013 and 4% in 2014* • Solid private consumption in the US • Strong actions from the European policymakers helped improve
confidence and financial conditions

• Reaccelerating activity in emerging market and developing
economies

• When output growth is increased, the demand for inputs will
increase, including demand for labor

• Higher demand for labor : more employment

*April 2013 IMF World Economic Outlook

• Total

Jobs in 2012: 3,127.5 million world located in Asia

• More than half of jobs in the • Developed
economies and EU contributed 15% of total jobs in the world contributed the least

• Middle east and North Africa

Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends 2013

• 70%

of jobs in agriculture sector located in Asia, mostly in South Asia economies and EU contributed only 1.6% of total jobs in agriculture sector in the world

• Developed

• Middle East contributed the
least amount of jobs in the agriculture sector

Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends 2013

• One-third of jobs in industry
sector in the world located in East Asia

• South Asia contributed 19% • Developed economies and
EU provided 15% of industrial jobs in the world

• South-East Asia and Latin
America countries each contributed 8%

Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends 2013

• Developed economies and
EU was the largest contributor of jobs in service sector in the world

• Second largest: East Asia • Number of jobs in service
sector in South Asia and Latin America were comparable

• The smallest number of jobs
in the service sector was provided by North Africa

Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends 2013

• • • •
Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends 2013

• More than half of jobs in the world is located in Asia, dominated by
jobs in agriculture sector, concentrated in South Asia

• Jobs

in the agriculture sector declined, but gained on jobs in industry and service sector

• More

jobs in the industry and service sector, more demand for high-skilled labor developed

• Jobs in the industry sector are the highest in East Asia • Jobs in the service sector are the highest in the
economies and EU

•3

out of 4 jobs in the developed economies and EU are in the service sector

• Issues in many developed economies and EU:
 Declining in working-age population  Difficulties in hiring skilled labor

• • • • •

Decrease in the supply of labor in many developed economies Increasing the need in labor mobility and migration from rising working-age populations countries Challenge: the process has been tightly constrained by immigration policies Common practice: governments often grant highly skilled migrants more rights than they do low-skilled migrants Globally, there are relative shortages of high-skilled migrants and relative surpluses of low-skilled migrants

Source: UN Population Division - 2010 Revision WPP

Hays Global Skills index

• 5.0: balanced market for skilled labor
(perfect score)

• > 5.0: companies are witnessing a
degree of skills shortage

• < 5.0: skilled workers experience
difficulty in finding employment

• High competition for skilled workers to
find a job in Belgium, Italy, Hong Kong

• Shortage in skilled workers in the US,
Germany, Sweden, Hungary

• The next tier of countries experiencing
shortage in skilled workers: Mexico, Australia, Brazil, Canada

Source: Hays, PLC, October 2012

Country
United States Germany Sweden Hungary Mexico Australia Brazil Canada

Shortage Skilled workers
Engineering, Life Sciences, IT, Utilities, Health Care Engineering, IT, Utilities, Accounting and Finance, Management/Executive Technical and Scientific Services, Management/Executive, Engineering Utilities, Engineering, IT, Hospitality Management Technical and Scientific Services, Sales Managers Engineering, Mining, Oil, and Gas, Accounting and Finance Engineering, Life Sciences, Accounting and Finance, Retail, Oil and Gas Engineering, Sales Managers, Technical Services, Mining, Oil and gas

Source: Hays, PLC, October 2012 and ManPower Group , 2012

• Working-age population will increase
up to year 2030

• Making sure the working-age
population is absorbed into the workforce

• Domestic and Global Employment • Opportunity: supplying labor to the
global market

• Challenge: be able to match the
required skills

• Critical issue: skills play an important
role on the mobility of labor

Source: UN Population Division - 2010 Revision WPP

• Jobs

in agriculture sector have declined, while jobs in industry and service sector will continue to increase • Global employment is dominated by jobs in service sector • Jobs in service sector are concentrated in developed economies and European Union • Problems in many developed economies: aging population, decline in working-age population and difficulties in hiring skilledworkers in many developed economies • Skills shortage: engineering, IT, technical services, mining, oil and

gas, health care, accounting and finance, management

• Opportunity to fill in the ‘gap’ but labor mobility is a challenge due
to immigration policy • Immigration policy is in favor to highly skilled workers

The new world ‘currency’ is our skills…