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Fahlino Sjuib, Ph.D.

Presentation at the International Seminar on the Demographic Bonus LIPI - Jakarta August 22, 2013

Current Global Economic Overview Global Employment Condition Mapping Global Jobs What type of jobs that are growing? Where are the jobs? Challenges in the global job market Where we are and what should we do? Conclusion
*April 2013 IMF World Economic Outlook

Global economic prospects have improved although


unemployment rate is still high in many countries

World output growth: 3.25% in 2013 and 4% in 2014* Solid private consumption in the US Strong actions from the European policymakers helped improve
confidence and financial conditions

Reaccelerating activity in emerging market and developing


economies

When output growth is increased, the demand for inputs will


increase, including demand for labor

Higher demand for labor : more employment

*April 2013 IMF World Economic Outlook

Total

Jobs in 2012: 3,127.5 million world located in Asia

More than half of jobs in the Developed


economies and EU contributed 15% of total jobs in the world contributed the least

Middle east and North Africa

Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends 2013

70%

of jobs in agriculture sector located in Asia, mostly in South Asia economies and EU contributed only 1.6% of total jobs in agriculture sector in the world

Developed

Middle East contributed the


least amount of jobs in the agriculture sector

Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends 2013

One-third of jobs in industry


sector in the world located in East Asia

South Asia contributed 19% Developed economies and


EU provided 15% of industrial jobs in the world

South-East Asia and Latin


America countries each contributed 8%

Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends 2013

Developed economies and


EU was the largest contributor of jobs in service sector in the world

Second largest: East Asia Number of jobs in service


sector in South Asia and Latin America were comparable

The smallest number of jobs


in the service sector was provided by North Africa

Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends 2013


Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends 2013

More than half of jobs in the world is located in Asia, dominated by


jobs in agriculture sector, concentrated in South Asia

Jobs

in the agriculture sector declined, but gained on jobs in industry and service sector

More

jobs in the industry and service sector, more demand for high-skilled labor developed

Jobs in the industry sector are the highest in East Asia Jobs in the service sector are the highest in the
economies and EU

out of 4 jobs in the developed economies and EU are in the service sector

Issues in many developed economies and EU:


Declining in working-age population Difficulties in hiring skilled labor

Decrease in the supply of labor in many developed economies Increasing the need in labor mobility and migration from rising working-age populations countries Challenge: the process has been tightly constrained by immigration policies Common practice: governments often grant highly skilled migrants more rights than they do low-skilled migrants Globally, there are relative shortages of high-skilled migrants and relative surpluses of low-skilled migrants

Source: UN Population Division - 2010 Revision WPP

Hays Global Skills index

5.0: balanced market for skilled labor


(perfect score)

> 5.0: companies are witnessing a


degree of skills shortage

< 5.0: skilled workers experience


difficulty in finding employment

High competition for skilled workers to


find a job in Belgium, Italy, Hong Kong

Shortage in skilled workers in the US,


Germany, Sweden, Hungary

The next tier of countries experiencing


shortage in skilled workers: Mexico, Australia, Brazil, Canada

Source: Hays, PLC, October 2012

Country
United States Germany Sweden Hungary Mexico Australia Brazil Canada

Shortage Skilled workers


Engineering, Life Sciences, IT, Utilities, Health Care Engineering, IT, Utilities, Accounting and Finance, Management/Executive Technical and Scientific Services, Management/Executive, Engineering Utilities, Engineering, IT, Hospitality Management Technical and Scientific Services, Sales Managers Engineering, Mining, Oil, and Gas, Accounting and Finance Engineering, Life Sciences, Accounting and Finance, Retail, Oil and Gas Engineering, Sales Managers, Technical Services, Mining, Oil and gas

Source: Hays, PLC, October 2012 and ManPower Group , 2012

Working-age population will increase


up to year 2030

Making sure the working-age


population is absorbed into the workforce

Domestic and Global Employment Opportunity: supplying labor to the


global market

Challenge: be able to match the


required skills

Critical issue: skills play an important


role on the mobility of labor

Source: UN Population Division - 2010 Revision WPP

Jobs

in agriculture sector have declined, while jobs in industry and service sector will continue to increase Global employment is dominated by jobs in service sector Jobs in service sector are concentrated in developed economies and European Union Problems in many developed economies: aging population, decline in working-age population and difficulties in hiring skilledworkers in many developed economies Skills shortage: engineering, IT, technical services, mining, oil and

gas, health care, accounting and finance, management

Opportunity to fill in the gap but labor mobility is a challenge due


to immigration policy Immigration policy is in favor to highly skilled workers

The new world currency is our skills