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UNIT 5

STATISTICS
5.1 Introduction
The concept of statistics is introduced in this topic. It covers the definition and the
application involving the permutations and combinations, probability of any event,
Binomial distribution and Normal distribution.
Objectives
At the end of the topic, you will be able to:
Differentiate between permutations and combinations.
Calculate the problem involving permutations and combinations.
Estimate the probability of any event.
Calculate the probability of events for Binomial and Normal distribution.
5.2 Permutations and Combinations
5.2.1 Method of Counting
The Multiplication Rule
Consider an experiment with two stages, one stage following the other. Suppose there
are m possible outcomes in the first stage and that for each of the possible outcomes in
the first stage, there are n possible outcomes in the second stage.
The total number of possible outcomes for the experiment is
m x n.
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In general, the multiplication rule is used to find the number of possible outcomes for an
experiment that consists of at least two stages.
Example 5.1
A traveller wants to go to Town D from Town A via Town B and town C. Suppose
there are 3 different routes from Town A to Town B, 2 different routes from Town B to
Town C and only 1 route from Town C to Town D. How many different routes can the
traveller takes?
Solution:
For this experiment, there are 3 stages;
First stage (From Town A to Town B): 3 possible outcomes (routes).
Second stage (From Town B to Town C): 2 possible outcomes (routes).
Third Stage (From Town C to Town D): 1 possible outcome (route).
Therefore, under the multiplication rule, the number of different routes the traveller can
take = 3 x 2 x1 = 6 or 3!, which is called three factorial.
Hence; 3! = 3 x 2 x 1
5! = 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1
Generally, for positive integer n,
n! = n x (n-1) x (n-2) x x 3 x 2 x 1 .
5.2.2 Permutation
Permutation is an ordered arrangement of a number of distinct
objects
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Our objective is to find the number of different ways of ordering or arranging a number
of objects selected from a complete set or an original set. Selection from the original set
is either selection with repetition (sampling with replacement) or selection without
repetition. (sampling without replacement).
Consider the following experiments:
Case 1 : A box contains 10 balls numbered 1, ....10.
First, one ball is selected at random from the box and its number is noted. The ball is
then put back in the box and a ball is selected and its number is asked. The process is
continues until a desired number of balls are selected in this ways. This process is called
selection with repetition. It is assumed that each of the 10 balls is equally likely to be
selected at each selection and that all selections are made independently of each other.
Case 2 : A box contain 10 balls numbered 1, .. 10.
First, one ball is selected at random from the box and its number is noted. The ball is
removed from the box. A ball is then selected from the remaining balls and the number
is noted. Then, process continues until a desired number of balls are selected in this
way, a maximum of 10 balls. This process is called selection without repetition.
Definition 1
The number of permutations of n different object selected with
repetition from a set of n different objects is n
n
.
Definition 2
The number of permutations of n different objects selected
without repetition from a set of n different objects is n!.
Symbol used :
.n
P
n
= n!
Definition 3
The number of permutations of r different objects selected with
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repetition from a set of n different objects is n
r
.
Definition 4
The number of permutations of r different objects selected with
repetition from a set of n different objects is n !_
(n-r) !
Symbol used:
n
P
r
= n !
(n-r)!
Definition 5
The number of permutations of n different objects selected
without repetition of which p objects are of the first kind, q
objects are of the second kind and r objects are of the third kind
where p + q + r = n is given by
Symbol used: = __ n !__
p! q! r!
Example 5.2
Suppose an original set A is given as A = {2, 4, 6}. How many 3digit numbers can
possibly be formed from set A if :
a. Each digit can be used more then once?
b. Each digit can be used only once?
Solution:
a. Since each digit can be used more than once, the selections from set A are with
repetition:
1
st
digit 2
nd
digit

3
rd
digit
___________________|___________________|___________________

3 ways to determine 3 ways to determine 3 ways to determine
(record and returned) (record and returned) (record and returned)
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Therefore, the number of possible ways to form 3-digit numbers from a set of 3
different digits with repetition
= 3 x 3 x 3
= 3
3
= 27 .
b. Since each digit can be used only once, the selection from set A is without repetition
1
st
digit 2
nd
digit

3
rd
digit
__________________|___________________|___________________

3 ways to determine 2 ways to determine 1 way to determine
(record and removed) (record and removed) (record and removed)
Therefore, the number of possible ways to from 3-digit numbers from a set 3 different
digits without repetition
= 3 x 2 x 1
= 3! = 6 .
Example 5.3
How many ways can the alphabets in the word STATISTICS be arranged?
Solution:
The number of ways
= 10! = 50,400,000
3! 3! 2! 1! 1!
Note: 10! Number of ways to arranging the 10 alphabets STATISTICS.
3! Number of ways of arranging the 3 alphabets S and 3 alphabets T.
2! Number of ways of arranging the 2 alphabets I.
1! Number of way of arranging 1 alphabet A and alphabets C.
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Practice 5.1
Suppose an original set A is given as A = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5}. How many 3digit numbers
can possibly be formed from set A if each digit can be used only once?
Solution
Since each digit cannot be used more than once, the selections from set A are without
repetition:
1
st
digit 2
nd
digit

3
rd
digit
___________________|___________________|___________________

_ ways to determine _ ways to determine _ ways to determine
(record and returned) (record and returned) (record and returned)
Therefore, the number of possible ways to form 3-digit numbers from a set of 3
different digits without repetition
= _ x _ x _
= __
Practice 5.2
Suppose an original set A is given as A = {2, 4, 6}.How many 2-digit numbers can
possibly be formed from set A if:
a. Repetition is allowed?
b. Repetition is not allowed?
Solution
a. Selection with repetition.
1
st
digit 2
nd
digit

__________________|___________________

_ ways to determine _ ways to determine
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(Record and returned) (Record and returned)
Therefore, the number of possible ways to from 2-digit numbers from a set of 3
different digits with repetition = __ x __
= 3
2
= __ .
b. Selection without repetition.
1
st
digit 2
nd
digit

__________________|___________________

_ ways to determine _ ways to determine
(Record and removed) (Record and removed)
Therefore, the number of possible ways to from 2- digit numbers from a set of 3
different digits without repetition = _ x _ = _
or =
! 1
! 3
=
)! 2 3 (
! 3

(from the definition) .


Practice 5.3
Suppose that 18 red beads, 12 yellow beads, 8 blue beads and 12 black beads are to be
strung in a row. How many different arrangements of the beads can be formed?
Solution
The number of different arrangements of 50 beads of which 18 are red, 12 yellow, 8
blue and 12 black
= ___________ = _______

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5.2.3 Combination
Our objective is to find the number of different subset containing a certain number of
elements from an original set. It is important to note that no two combinations will
consist of exactly the same elements since the arrangement of the element in each
subset is irrelevant. For example, the subjects {a, b} and {b, a }are considered identical
and are treated as one combination. However, the subset are considered as two
permutations because {a, b} and {b, a } are two different arrangements.
Definition
The number of combinations of r different objects selected
without repetition from a set of n different objects is
)! ( !
!
r n r
n

Symbol used:
n
C
r
=
)! ( !
!
r n r
n

Example 5.4
Suppose that committee composed of 8 people is to be selected from a group of 20
peoples. Find the number of different groups can be formed.
Solution:
Therefore, the number of different groups is,
C
20, 8
= __20!_____
8! (20-8)!
Combination is a subset of elements (objects) selected
from a original set.
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= __20!__
8! 12!
= 125,970
Example 5.5
A team of 4 students is to be selected from 4 male and 6 female students. Find the
number of different groups could be formed consisting 2 male and 2 female students.
Solution:
For the team to consist 2 male and 2 female students, we have to select 2 male from 4
male students and 2 female from 6 female students.
Therefore:
The number of ways of choosing 2 male students =
4
C
2

The number of ways of choosing 2 female student =
6
C
2
The number of ways the team consisting of 2 male and 2 female students can be formed
=
4
C
2
x
6
C
2
= 6 x 15
= 90 .
Practice 5.4
A team of 4 students is to be selected from 4 male and 6 female students. Find the
number of different groups could be formed consisting at least 2 male students.
Solution
The team can be formed in the following ways:
Male Female No. of ways
i 2 and __
_____________
= __
or ii 3 and 1
4
C
3
x
6
C
1
= 24
or iii 4 and 0
_____________
= __
Total number of different groups could be formed consisting at least 2 male students
= __+ 24 +__
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= ___
Practice 5.5
A team of 3 students is to be selected from 5 Malay and 3 Chinese students. Find the
number of different groups could be formed consisting at most 2 Malay students.
Solution
The team can be formed in the following ways:
Malay Chinese No. of ways
i 0 and __
5
C
0
x
3
C
3
= 1
or ii 1 and 2
_____________
= __
or iii 2 and __
_____________
= __
Total number of different groups could be formed consisting at least 2 male students =
1+ __ +__ = ___
5.3 Probability
5.3.1 Introduction
A probability is the numeric value representing the chance, likelihood or possibility a
particular event will occur such as a rainy day, the price of a stock increasing, a
nonconforming unit of production or the outcome head in one toss of a coin. In these
entire events, the probability attached is a proportion or fraction whose value ranges
between 0 and 1 inclusively. There are 3 approaches to the subject of probability;
(i) Classical probability
(ii) Empirical probability
(iii) Subjective probability
For the classical probability, the probability of success is based on prior knowledge of
the process involved where each outcome is equally likely. In the empirical probability,
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the outcomes are based on the observed data or experiment, not on prior knowledge of a
process. The subjective probability differs from the other two approaches because
subjective probability differs from person to person. To deal with problem of
probability, it is helpful to know the concepts of experiment, sample space and event.
Experiment: Any process whose outcome is not known in advance with certainty
but the entire possible outcome can be specified.
Sample space: A collection or set of all possible outcomes of an experiment and
each outcome is an element of the sample space.
Event: A collection or set of specific outcomes of an experiment.
Example:
Experiment: Roll a balanced die.
[The outcomes is not known in advance]
Sample space: The possible outcomes of rolling a die are the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and
6. [If we denote S be the sample space of the experiment, therefore
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Event: The event that an even number is defined by A= {2, 4, 6}.
The event B that a number greater than 3 is defined by B={4, 5, 6}.
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5.3.2 Operations of Set Theory
Suppose that A and B are any two events of an experiment with a sample space, S.
a. Unions : The unions of A and B, denoted by A U B, is defined to be the event
containing all outcomes that belongs to A alone, to B alone, or to both A
and B.
The event A U B
Properties: A U B = B U A
A U = A
A U B = B if A B
b. Intersections: The intersections of A and B, denoted by A B, is defined to be the
event containing all outcomes belonging both to A and to B.

The event A B


Properties: A B = B A
A =
A B = A if A B
c. Complements: The complement of A, denoted by A, is defined to be the event
containing all outcomes in the sample space, S, which do not belong
to A.
The event A
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A B
A B
A
A
Properties: (A) = A
A A = S
A A =
d. Disjoint Events : A and B are disjoint, or mutually exclusive if A and B have no
outcomes in common. If follows that A A =
The disjoint
events of A and B
5.3.3 Probability Calculation Techniques
Single Event
The probability of an event A, is given by:
P(A) = n (A )
n(S)
where n(A) is the number of elements in set A,
n(S) is the number of elements is sample space
Under this technique, the sample space must be a finite simple sample space. The
number of elements in the finite simple space is countable. It is convenient to have a
method of determining the total number of outcomes in the sample space and in various
events without compiling a list of all these outcomes.
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A B
Probability Theorems
Marginal, Joint and Conditional Probabilities
Marginal probability is simply the probability that an event will occur regardless of
whether or not another event occurs. Therefore, P(A) and P(B) are marginal
probabilities.
Suppose A and B are any two events of on experiment. P(A) and P(B) are such that;
P(A) = Probability that event A occurs regardless of whether or not event B
occurs.
P(B) = Probability that event B occurs regardless of whether or not event A
occurs.
Joint probability is the probability that two or more events will occur at the same time.
Therefore, P(AB) is a joint probability.
P(AB) or P(AB) : Probability that both events A and B occur at the same
time.
Conditional probability is the probability of an event occurring given that another event
has occurred. P(A|B) and P(B|A) are conditional probabilities. P(A) and P(B) are also
known as unconditional probabilities.
1. P(S) = 1 and P() = 0
2. For any event A, 0 P(A) 1
Probability has value between 0 and 1.
3. For any event A, P(A) = 1 - P(A)
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P(A|B) = Probability that event A occurs given that or knowing that event B has
occurred
Relations Of Marginal, Joint And Conditional Probabilities
If A and B are any two events of an experiment such that P(B) > 0, then,
P(A|B) =
) (
) (
B P
B A P
Hence,

) ( B A P
= P(B). P(A|B)-----------
Likewise:
) ( B A P
= P(A). P(B|A)-----------
Its called the Law of multiplication:
) ( B A P
= P(B). P(A|B)
) ( B A P
= P(A). P(B|A)
Special Cases for the Law of Multiplication
If A and B are independent events (the occurrence of one does not affect the probability
of the occurrence of the other), then:
) ( B A P
= P(A). P(B)
If A and B are mutually exclusive or disjoint events, then:
) ( B A P
= 0
The Probability of a Union of Events
If A and B are any two events of an experiment, then:

B) P P P B) P(A ( ) ( + ) (
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It called the Law of Addition.
Special Cases for the Law of Addition
If A and B are independent events, then:
) ( ). B P P P P B) P(A ( ) ( + ) (
If A and B are mutually exclusive or disjoint events, then:
) ( + ) ( P P B) P(A
Example 5.6
Given that A and B are two events with probabilities P(A) = 0.4, P(A|B) = 0.2 and P(B)
= 0.15. Find;
a. P(B|A)
b. P(AB)
Solution:
a. Given; P(A|B) =
) (
) (
B P
B A P
= 0.2

) ( B A P
=
) (B P
x 0.2 = 0.15 x 0.2 = 0.03
Then, P(B|A) =
) (
) (
A P
B A P
=
4 . 0
03 . 0
= 0.075
b.
B) P P P B) P(A ( ) ( + ) (
= 0.4 + 0.15 0.03 = 0.52
B) P P P B) P(A ( ) ( + ) (
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Example 5.7
R and T are defined in a sample space with probabilities P(R) = 0.35, P(T) = 0.28 and
P(RT) = 0.06. Find;
a. P(RT) c. P(RT)
b. P(RT)
Solution :
a. P(RT) = P(R) + P(T) - P(RT) = 0.35 + 0.28 0.06
= 0.57
b. P(RT) = P(RT) - P(T)
= 0.57 0.28 = 0.29

c. P(RT) = 1 - P(RT)
= 1 - 0.57
= 0.43
Practice 5.6
If the probability that students A will fail a certain statistics examination is 0.5, the
probability that student B will fail the examination is 0.2, and the probability that the
both student A and student B will fail the examination is 0.1, what is the probability
that:
a. At least one of these two students will fail the examination?
b. Neither student A nor student B will fail the examination?
c. Exactly one of these two students will fail the examination?
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R T
T R

Solution
Let : A be the event that student A fails, A be the event that student A passes
P(A) = 0.5, P(A) = 1- P(A) = 1- 0.5 = 0.5
Let : B be the event that student B fails, B be the event that student B passes
P(B) = 0.2, P(B) = 0.8
Give also, P(AB) = 0.1
a. P(at least one will fail) = P(AB)
= P(A) + P(B) - P(AB)
= __ + __ __ = 0.6
b . P(neither students will fail) = P(both will pass )
= P(AB)
= 1- P(AB)
= 1- __ = __
c. P(exactly one fails) = P(A fail and B passed) + P(A passed and B fail)
= P(AB) + P(AB)
= __ + __ = ___
Practice 5.7
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A
B
0.4 0.1 0.1
0.4
Two students A and B are both registered for a certain course. If student A attends class
70% of the time and student B attends class 80% of the time. If the absences of the two
students are independent, what is the probability that at least one person attends the
class?
Solution
Let A be the student A attends class and B be the student B attends class.
Given P(A) = 0.7, P(B) = 0.8
Since A and B are independent,
) ( B A P
= P(A). P(B) = __ x __ = 0.56
Then, P(at least one person attends the class) or,
B) P P P B) P(A ( ) ( + ) (
= __ + __ - __
= ___
5.4 Binomial Distribution
Binomial probability distribution is one of the most useful mathematical models for
discrete random variable. This distribution needs repetition of a Bernoulli experiment.
Bernoulli distribution has only two possible outcomes. Consider the experiment of
tossing a coin and we record only two outcomes i.e. head (H) or tail (T). This
experiment is called Bernoulli experiment. If we tossing two times, the sample space for
the new experiment is
S = {HH, HT, TH, TT }.
The experiment consists of repeating two or more times where each trial had two
possible outcomes is called a Binomial experiment.
Properties of Binomial Experiment:
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a. The experiment consists of n trials where n at least two trials.
b. There are only two possible outcomes on each trial. Example: Head or Tail, Alive
or Dead, Good or Defective Success or Failure etc.
c. The probability of success on a single trial (p) and failure (q) remain the same for
each trial.
d. The outcome for each trial is independent of the outcome of any other trial.
The binomial random variable, X, can be written as
) , ( ~ p n B X
. The value of
) ( r X P
could be obtained from formula and Cumulative Binomial Probabilities
Table (J. Murdoch and J.A.Barnes).
(a) Formula
r n r
p p
r
n
r X P

,
_

) 1 ( ) (
or
r n r
r
n
q p C

where
p
probability of success on a single trial,
q = probability of failure on a single trial or
p q 1
,
n
number of experiments or trials,
r number of successes in n trials varies from 0 to n
(b) Cumulative Binomial Probabilities Table
When n is getting large, computation using formula will be become tedious. To avoid
computational drudgery, you can find many binomial probabilities directly from the
Cumulative Binomial Probabilities Table written by J. Murdoch and J.A.Barnes. The
table gives the probability of obtaining r or more successes in n independent trials i.e.
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r n r
n
r x
p p
r
n
r X P

,
_

) 1 ( ) (
So, any symbol of
) symbol ( r X P > <
should be transformed to the symbol of
) ( r X P
before we can use the Cumulative Binomial Probabilities Table.
For example;
) 1 ( ) ( + > r X P r X P
) 1 ( 1 ) ( + r X P r X P
) ( 1 ) ( r X P r X P <
) 1 ( ) ( ) ( + r X P r X P r X P
Mean and Variance of Binomial Distribution
The binomial distribution with n trials and probability of success, p has
Mean,
np
Variance,
2
= npq
Standard deviation,

=
npq
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Interpretation from English Language to Statistics Symbol
Let X be the number of heads.
English Language Statistics Symbol
Probability of getting three heads
) 3 ( X P
Probability of getting more than three heads
) 3 ( > X P
Probability of getting less than three heads
) 3 ( < X P
Probability of getting not more than three heads
) 3 ( X P
Probability of getting not less than three heads
) 3 ( X P
Probability of getting at most three heads
) 3 ( X P
Probability of getting at least three heads
) 3 ( X P
Probability of getting two to five heads
) 5 2 ( X P
Probability of getting between two and five heads or
between two and five heads exclusively
) 5 2 ( < < X P
Probability of getting between two and five heads
inclusively
) 5 2 ( X P
Example 5.8
Determine if the followings are binomial distribution:
a. Tossing a coin.
b. Tossing a coin three times.
c. Rolling a die ten times.
d. The weight of students.
Solution:
a. No.
b. Binomial distribution.
c. Binomial distribution.
d. No.
Example 5.9
A coin is tossed three times. Let X be the number of heads appeared. Find the
probability of getting at least two heads.
Solution:
Let X be the number of heads appeared.
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Since n = 3, X = 0, 1, 2, 3
The sample space is S = {HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT}
The probability of success in getting head for each trial is p = and q = 1 - =
X can be written as ) , 3 ( ~
2
1
B X .
By using formula,

) 3 ( ) 2 ( ) 2 ( + X P X P X P

3 3
2
1
3
2
1
3
3 2 3
2
1
2
2
1
2
3
) ( ) ( ) ( ) (

+ C C
= 0.375 + 0.125
= 0.5
Example 5.10
Given X is binomial random variable with n = 5 and p = 0.20. By using Cumulative
Binomial Probabilities Table, find:
(i)
) 4 ( X P

(ii)
) 4 ( > X P

(iii)
) 4 ( X P
(iv)
) 4 ( < X P

(v)
) 4 ( X P
Solution:
p = 0.10 0.15 0.20
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n = 2
n = 5
.
0 r
1
2
3
4
5
. . .
1.0000
.6723
.2627
.0579
.0067
.0003
(i) The value of
) 4 ( X P
is directly obtained from the table i.e.
) 4 ( X P
=0.0067
(ii)
) 4 ( > X P
=
) 5 ( X P
= 0.0003
(iii)
) 4 ( X P
= 1 -
) 5 ( X P
= 1 0.0003 = 0.9997
(iv)
) 4 ( < X P
= 1 -
) 4 ( X P
= 1 - 0.0067 = 0.9933
(v)
) 4 ( X P
=
) 4 ( X P
-
) 5 ( X P
= 0.0067 0.0003 = 0.0064
Practice 5.8
If a coin is tossed five times, find the probability of getting;
(a) exactly three heads.
(b) fewer than two heads.
(c) at least two tails.
(d) at most one head or one tail.
Solution:
Let X be the number of heads appeared.
Since n = 5, X = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
p = and q =
) , 5 ( ~ B X
(a)
) 3 ( X P 3125 . 0 ) ( ) (
__
2
1
__
2
1
__
__
C
(formula)
@
) 3 ( X P
= _) ( X P - _) ( X P
=____ - ____ = 0.3125 (table)
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(b)
) 2 ( < X P
_) ( _) ( + X P X P
=
__ __
__
__
) ( ) ( C
+
__ __
__
__
) ( ) ( C
= ______ (formula)
@
) 2 ( < X P
= 1 - _) ( X P = 1 - ______
= ______ (table)
(c) For at least two tail,
T H
2 4
3 3
4 2
5 1
6 0


) 5 ( < X P
_)} ( _) ( { 1 + X P X P
= 1 {
__ __
__
__
) ( ) ( C
+
__ __
__
__
) ( ) ( C
}
= ______ (formula)
@
) 5 ( < X P
= 1 - _) ( X P = 1 - ______
= ______ (table)
(d) For at most one head or one tail,
T H
6 0
5 1
0 6
1 5

P(at most one head or one tail)
= _) ( _) ( _) ( _) ( + + + X P X P X P X P
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At most one head
At most one tail
=
__ __
__
__
) ( ) ( C
+
__ __
__
__
) ( ) ( C
}+
__ __
__
__
) ( ) ( C
+
__ __
__
__
) ( ) ( C
= ______ (formula)
@ P(at most one head or one tail)
=
) 5 ( ) 2 ( 1 ) 5 ( ) 1 ( + + X P X P X P X P
= 1 - _____+_____
= ______ (table)
Practice 5.9
Thirty percent of the voters in a small city are opposed to a purposed development. If
fifty voters are selected at random, find
(a) the probability that at least twenty voters are opposed to a purposed development.
(b) the mean and variance of the voters who are opposed to a purposed development.
Solution
Let X be the number of voters who are opposed to a purposed development.
n = 50, p = 0.30
(a)
__) ( X P
= _____ (from table)
The computation using formula will be become tedious and are not suggested.
(b) The mean,
np
= __x__ = ___
The variance,
2
= npq =__x__x__ = ___
Practice 5.10
The probability that a patient recovers from a delicate heart operation is 0.7. What is the
probability that exactly four out of the five patients having this operation will survive?
Solution
Let X be the number of patients having heart operation will survive.
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n = 5, p = 0.7
) 4 ( X P
=
__ __
__
__
) 3 . 0 ( ) 7 . 0 ( C
= ______ (formula)
If we want to use table, a certain thing should be change.
Let X be the number of patients having heart operation will die.
n = 5, p = 0.3
If 4 patients will survive, its mean 1 patients will die.
) 1 ( X P
=
__) ( X P
-
__) ( X P

= ____ - ____
= ____(table)
5.5 Normal Distribution
The normal distribution (sometimes referred to as the Gaussian distribution) is the most
common continuous distribution used in statistics. The normal distribution is vitally
important in statistics for three main reasons:
1. The normal distribution can be used to approximate various
discrete probability distributions such as the Binomial and Poisson distribution.
2. The normal distribution provides the basis for classical
statistical inference because of its relationship to the central limit theorem.
3. Numerous continuous variables in the business world have
distributions that closely resemble the normal distribution.
The normal distribution has several properties:
1. x can take on any real number.
2. It is bell-shaped in its appearances, and thus symmetrical.
3. Its measures of central tendency (mean, mode and median) are all identical.
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x =
Normal Distribution
4. The total area under the curve is 1.
Formula
The normal probability density function is stated as;
2
2
1
2
1
) (
1
]
1


x
e x f
, x
This mathematical expression is computationally tedious and requires integral calculus.
Fortunately, standard normal probability tables and calculator are available and you can
avoid these complicated computations. The first step in finding normal probabilities is
to use the transformation formula;

X
Z
Standard normal distribution is that normal variable, X with mean,

and standard
deviation,

transformed into standard normal variable, Z with mean,


0
and
standard deviation, 1 .
) 1 , 0 ( ~ ) , ( ~
2
N Z N X
x =

= 0
= 1

(a) Standard Normal Probability Table (J. Murdoch and J.A.Barnes).


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0.5 0.5
After using transformation formula, the probability can be found by using the standard
normal probability table. If we want to find
( ) k Z P >
, Z score is a distance along the
horizontal scale of the standard normal distribution (refer to the leftmost column and
top row of standard normal probability table). While area or probability is a region
under the curve (refer to the values in the body of standard normal probability table).
z 0
Since the standard normal probability table is a cumulative distribution, any symbol of
mathematics should be transformed into
( ) k Z P >
.
Note:
1.
) ( ) ( a Z P a Z P >
(Direct from the table)
2.
) ( ) ( a Z P a Z P > <
since its symmetry.
- a

a
3.
) ( 1 ) ( a Z P a Z P > <
a

a
4.
) ( 1 ) ( a Z P a Z P > >
- a

a
5.
) ( ) ( ) ( b Z P a Z P b Z a P > > < <
a b

a

b
6.
) ( ) ( 1 ) ( b Z P a Z P b Z a P > > < <
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Probability or area
= k
=


=
= 1 -
- a b

a

b
For
) ( ) ( ) | | ( a Z P a Z P a Z P < + > >

) ( ) | | ( a Z a P a Z P < < <
(b) Calculator
By using Casio Scientific Calculator (fx-570W, fx-570MS and fx-570EX) or
any other scientific calculator, we can find the probability.
1. Press
<MODE> <MODE> <1>
to enter SD (Statistical Data).
2. Press
<SHIFT> <3>
to show the screen as below.

3. Press a value from <1> to <3> based on the symbol of the
probability distribution.


( ) k Z P <

( ) 0 < < Z k P
or
( ) k Z P < < 0

( ) k Z P >
Example 5.11
By using the calculator or table, find;
(a)
) 55 . 0 ( < Z P
. (b)
) 5 . 1 0 ( < < Z P
.
(c)
) 3 2 ( < < Z P
. (d)
) 5 . 2 5 . 1 ( < < Z P
.
Solution:
(a)
) 55 . 0 ( < Z P
= 1 -
) 55 . 0 ( > Z P
= 1 0.2912 = 0.7088 (table)
168

= 1 - -
P(t)
Q(t) R(t)
P( Q( R( t
1 2 3 4

) 55 . 0 ( < Z P
= P(0.55) = 0.7088 (calculator)
(b)
) 5 . 1 0 ( < < Z P
= 0.5 -
) 5 . 1 ( > Z P
= 0.5 - 0.0668 = 0.4332 (table)

) 5 . 1 0 ( < < Z P
= Q(1.5) = 0.4332 (calculator)
(c)
) 3 2 ( < < Z P
= 1 -
) 2 ( > Z P
-
) 3 ( > Z P
= 1 - 0.02275 0.00135 = 0.9759 (table)

) 3 2 ( < < Z P
= P(3) - P(-2) = 0.9759 (calculator)
(d)
) 5 . 2 5 . 1 ( < < Z P
=
) 5 . 1 ( > Z P
-
) 5 . 2 ( > Z P
= 0.0668 0.00621 = 0.06059 (table)

) 5 . 2 5 . 1 ( < < Z P
= R(1.5) - R(2.5) = 0.0606 (calculator)
Example 5.12
Given a standard normal distribution, find the value of a such that
. 0668 . 0 ) ( >a Z P
(a)
67 . 0 ) ( < a Z P
Solution:
(a) The area to the right of a is 0.0668

a
Thus a = 1.50.

X
0.00


0.0

5 . 1
0.0668
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0.0668
(b) The area to the right of a is 33 . 0 67 . 0 1


a
Thus a = 0.44.
Example 5.13
Given that X has the normal distribution with mean 30 and variance 36, find;
(a).
) 40 ( > X P
(b).
) 40 20 ( X P
Solution:
X is the normal distribution, X ~ N(30, 36). Then
30
and 6 .
(a).
,
_


> >
6
30 40
) 40 ( Z P X P

0475 . 0
) 67 . 1 (

> Z P
(b)
,
_


6
30 40
6
30 20
) 40 20 ( Z P X P

905 . 0 ) 2 ( 0475 . 0 1
) 67 . 0 ( ) 67 . 1 ( 1
) 67 . 1 67 . 1 (



Z P Z P
Z P

X
0.00

0.04
0.0

4 . 0
0.33
170
0.67 0.33
Practice 5.11
By using the table or calculator, find;
(a)
) 50 . 0 ( < Z P
. (b)
) 5 . 2 0 ( < < Z P
.
(c)
) 0 2 ( < < Z P
. (d)
) 25 . 3 ( > Z P
.
Solution
(a)
) 50 . 0 ( < Z P
=
___) ( > Z P
= _____ (table)

) 50 . 0 ( < Z P
= P(____) = (calculator)
(b)
) 5 . 2 0 ( < < Z P
= 0.5 - ______
= 0.5 - ____ = ____ (table)

) 5 . 2 0 ( < < Z P
= Q(____) = (calculator)
(c)
) 0 2 ( < < Z P
=
< < ) 2 0 ( Z P
0.5 - ______
= 0.5 - ______ = 0.47725 (table)

) 0 2 ( < < Z P
= Q(-2) = (calculator)
(d)
) 25 . 3 ( > Z P
= 1 -
____) ( > Z P
= 1
,
_

+
2
00048 . 0 00069 . 0
= 1 _____ = ______ (table)

) 25 . 3 ( > Z P
= R(-3.25) = (calculator)
Practice 5.12
Plastic bags used for packaging procedure are manufactured so that breaking strength of the
bag is normally distributed with a mean of 2.5 kilograms per square inch and a standard
deviation of 1 kilogram per square inch. Calculate the probability that;
(i) the bags produced have a breaking strength below 2 kg/inch
2
.
(ii) the bags produced have a breaking strength between 2 and 3 kg/inch
2
.
Solution
Let X be breaking strength of the bag
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X ~ N(2.5, 1). So
5 . 2
and 1
(i)
( ) ___ ) 2 ( < < Z P X P

___) ( < Z P

3085 . 0
___) (

> Z P
(ii) P(2 < Z < 3)
( ) ___ ___ < < Z P

______
______
___) (___

< < Z P
Practice 5.13
A set of final examination marks in an introductory statistics course is normally
distributed with a mean of 73 and a variance of 64.
(a) What is the probability of getting a mark of 50 or less on this exam?
(b) The probability is 5% that a student taking the test scores higher than what mark?
Solution
Let X be final examination marks in an introductory statistics
X ~ N(73, 64). So
73
and 8 .
(a)
( ) _____ ) 50 ( Z P X P

) 875 . 2 ( Z P


___) ( Z P
= _____
(b)
05 . 0 ) ( > k X P

05 . 0 ) (

>

k
Z P

a

05 . 0 )
__
__
(

>
k
Z P
172
0.05
From normal probability table, a = 1.645 =

k
Then, 1.645 =
__
__ k

1.645 (___) =
__ k
k ____ + ____ = ______
The probability 5% to the right indicates that a student taking the test scores must
be higher than _____.
EXERCISE
1. Suppose an original set B is given as B = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7}. How many 4digit
numbers can possibly be formed from set B if:
(a) Each digit can be used more then once?
(b) Each digit can be used only once?
2. How many ways can the alphabets in the word REGRESSION be arranged?
3. A team of 3 students is to be selected from 5 male and 7 female students. Find the
number of different groups could be formed consisting at most 2 male students.
4. Given that A and B are two events with probabilities P(A) = 0.5, P(A|B) = 0.2 and
P(B) = 0.4. Find
(a) P(AB) . (b) P(B|A) .
5. A and B are defined in a sample space with probabilities P(A) = 0.5, P(B) = 0.4 and
P(AB) = 0.2. Find
(a) P(AB) . (b) P(AB) . (c) P(AB) .
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6. If the probability that students A will fail mathematic subject is 0.3, the probability
that student B will fail mathematic subject is 0.2, and the probability that the both
student A and student B will fail the examination is 0.1, what is the probability that:
(a) At least one of these two students will fail the examination?
(b) Both students will pass the examination?
7. Given X is binomial random variable with n = 20 and p = 0.20. By using Cumulative
Binomial Probabilities Table, find
(i)
) 4 ( < X P
. (iii)
) 10 ( > X P
.
(ii)
) 4 1 ( < X P
. (iv)
) 12 7 ( < X P
.
8. If a coin is tossed ten times, find the probability of getting exactly five heads and at
least five heads.
9. The number of defective bulbs in a box containing five bulbs is thought to have a
binomial distribution with p = P(a given bulb is defective) = 0.2. If 10 such boxes
are examined, what is the probability that exactly 8 of the boxes will contain no
defective bulbs?
10. In order to screen prospective employees, a company gives a 10 question multiple
choice tests. Each question has four possible answers of which only one is correct. If
a prospective employee responds by guessing, find the probability of him or her
answering;
(a) 3 questions correctly
(b) No questions correctly, and
(c) No more than 7 questions correctly.
11. A supposed coffee connoisseur claims that she can distinguish between a cup of
instant coffee and a cup of French dripped coffee 75% of the time. In an experiment
to determine the validity of her claim, she is given 6 cups of coffee and told her
claim will be accepted if she correctly identifies at least 5 of the 6 cups.
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(a). What are her chances of having her claim granted if she is in fact only guessing?
(b). What are the chances of having her claim rejected if she in fact does have the
claimed ability?
12. Find the following probabilities by using calculator or table;
(a)
) 25 . 3 ( < Z P
.
(b)
). 745 . 1 ( > Z P
(c)
). 55 . 2 | | ( > Z P
(d)
). 53 . 0 | | ( < Z P
(e)
) 42 . 2 42 . 1 ( < < Z P
13. Given a normal distribution of values for which the mean is 70 and the standard
deviation is 4.5. Find:
(a) The probability that a value is between 65 and 80, inclusive.
(b) The probability that a value is greater than or equal to 75.
(c) The probability that a value is less than 62.
14. The number of calories in a salad on the lunch menu is normally distributed with
mean,
200
and standard deviation . 5 Find the probability that the salad
one select will contain;
(a) More than 208 calories.
(b) Between 190 and 200 calories.
15. The time needed for a warehouse operative to complete a particular warehouse
operation is normally distributed with a mean of 80 minutes and standard deviation
of 10 minutes. Answer the following:
(a) What is the probability of an operative completing the warehouse task in one
hour or less?
(b) What is the probability of an operative completing the task in more than 60
minutes but less than 75minutes?
175
(c) Assume that the number of staff on the shift is 60 and that the deadline for
completion of each task is 90 minutes. How many staff do you expect will be
unable to complete the task in the allotted time?
Answers to exercise:
1. (a) 2,401 (b) 840
2. 453,600
3. 210
4. (a) 0.08 (b) 0.16
5. (a) 0.7 (b) 0.3 (c) 0.3
6. (a) 0.4 (b) 0.6
7. (a) 0.4114 (b) 0.5604 (c) 0.0006 (d) 0.0866
8. 0.2460 and 0.6230
9. 0.3020
10. (a) 0.2503 (b) 0.0563 (c) 0.9996
11. (a) 0.1094 (b) 0.4661
12. (a) 0.0006 (b) 0.9595 (c) 0.0108 (d) 0.4039 (e) 0.9144
13. (a) 0.8536 (b) 0.1333 (c) 0.0377
14. (a) 0548 . 0 (b) 47725 . 0
15. (a) 0.0228 (b) 0.2858 (c) 9
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Activity
You are instructed to do a comparison between the classical probability and empirical
probability. The experiment chosen is you need to toss a coin. In classical probability,
the probability of getting a head or tail in a single experiment is equal. We can denote as
2
1
) ( ) ( T X P H X P
. In empirical probability, you have to do an experiment to
find the
) ( H X P
or
) ( T X P
. In this case, tossing a coin for 30 times to find
) ( H X P
or
) ( T X P
. Answer the following questions;
(a) Which type of probability shows the higher
) ( H X P
?
(b) Let say the number of experiment is 50. Without conducting an experiment, find the
probability of getting at most 20 heads and at most 10 heads by using Binomial
distribution (Compare between classical probability and empirical probability).
(c) Then, compare your results among 4 students around you.
(d) What are your conclusions?
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