Commodities Evening Update

Monday| September 16, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Day’s overview Market Highlights Outlook Important Events for Today

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Commodities Evening Update
Monday| September 16, 2013

International Commodities
News and Analysis • India’s WPI inflation climbed to 6.1 percent in the month of August. • European CPI remained unchanged at 1.3 percent in the last month. • MCX prices correct sharply due to Rupee appreciation. European markets are trading on a positive note today as Lawrence Summers who was expected to be aggressive with QE taper, withdrew from Federal Reserve chairman candidature, easing concerns regarding the same. Asian markets also gained today. US futures are also trading in the green. India’s Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation climbed to 6.1 percent in August from 5.79 percent in July. WPI fuel rose to 11.34 percent in August from 11.3 percent in July. WPI food increased to 18.18 percent in the month of August from 11.9 percent in July. WPI manufacturing declined to 1.9 percent in August from 2.81 percent in July. European Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained unchanged at 1.3 percent in August. European Core CPI for the month of August remained unchanged at 1.1 percent. Spot gold prices declined 0.8 percent today on the back of fall in SPDR Gold holdings. However, upbeat global market sentiments and weakness in the DX prevented sharp fall. In the Indian markets, gold declined by around 2 percent due to Rupee appreciation touching an intraday low of Rs.29410/10 gems till 4:30 pm IST. Spot silver prices declined by 1.7 percent, taking cues from decline in gold. However, weakness in the DX and upbeat global market sentiments cushioned sharp downfall. On the MCX, silver declined around 2.7 percent on account of Rupee appreciation and hovered around Rs.48866/kg till 4:30pm IST. The base metals pack traded on a mixed note today as Lawrence Summers who was expected to be aggressive with QE taper withdrew from Fed candidature, easing market concerns and mixed economic data from the Euro zone. Weakness in the DX and upbeat global market sentiments added to the upside in prices on the LME. On the MCX, base meals pack declined due to Rupee appreciation. LME Copper prices gained 0.1 percent on the withdrawal of Lawrence Summers from Fed candidature and weakness in the DX. Decline in inventories by 0.5 percent to 574,675 tonnes acted as a positive factor. However, concerns regarding QE taper before the FOMC meet this week prevented sharp gains. The near month copper contract declined by 1.6 percent due to Rupee appreciation. Nymex crude oil prices declined by 1.3 percent as the concerns regarding the US-Syria military war has faded owing to proposal by the US to Syrian president Bashar al-Assad to submit an inventory of toxic weapons in a week. Weakness in the DX prevented sharp decline in prices. MCX crude oil prices declined by around 3 percent due to Rupee appreciation. Performance during the day
Index Nifty Sensex Nikkei Kospi FTSE Open High

as at 4.30 pm – 16 September ’13
Low Last % Chg from Prev day

5930.30 19977.38 14316.70 2011.69 17665.94

5957.25 20086.43 14439.93 2018.02 17757.85

5798.15 19596.15 14233.12 2004.45 17637.10

5840.55 19742.47 14404.67 2013.37 17637.10

-0.17 0.05 0.12 0.96 0.67
Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm – 16 September’13
Currency Dollar Index Euro/$ Spot INR/$ Spot Open High Low Current % Chg from Prev day

81.16 1.3305 62.70

81.19 1.3382 62.88

81.045 1.3295 62.44

81.155 1.334 62.835

-0.36 0.36 -0.84
Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm – 16 September’13
Commodity Spot Gold Comex Gold Oct’13 MCX Gold – Oct’13 Spot Silver Comex Silver Dec’13 MCX Silver – Dec’13 Crude Oil Nymex – Oct ‘13 ICE -Brent Crude Oil MCX Crude Oil Sep ’13 Copper LME - 3 Month MCX Copper Nov’13 Zinc LME - 3 Month Zinc MCX - Sep’13 Lead LME - 3 Month Lead MCX - Sep’13 Nickel LME - 3 Month Nickel MCX Sep’13 Aluminum LME - 3 Month Aluminum MCX Sep’13 Unit Open High Low Last % Chg from Prev day

$/oz $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz $/oz

1328.99 1328.40 30050.00 22.19 0.22235 49752 107.50 111.25 6885 7096.00 460.20 1880.25 117.10 2090 131.00 13890 880.00 1800.25 111.55

1334.46 1329.60 30051.0 22.34 0.2225 49784 108.00 111.49 6885 7120.00 460.20 1882.50 117.10 2090 131.00 13918 880.00 1804.00 111.55

1313.36 1314.10 29410.0 21.73 0.219 48866 106.48 108.73 6682 7050.00 451.00 1860.00 115.20 2055 128.10 13810 864.60 1791.00 110.40

1315.71 1314.10 29527.00 21.82 0.219 49295 106.84 109.71 6718 7057.00 453.45 1860.50 115.55 2059 128.65 13874 870.80 1792.00 110.85

-0.80 0.44 -1.99 -1.71 1.06 -2.73 -1.27 -2.72 -2.93 0.10 -1.61 -0.72 -2.37 -1.27 -2.61 0.19 -1.39 -0.17 -1.47

Rs/kg $/bbl

$/bbl Rs/bbl $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne

Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg

Source: Reuters

Commodities Evening Update
Monday| September 16, 2013

International Commodities
Outlook In today’s trade, we expect precious metals, base metals and crude oil prices to trade with a negative bias on the back of expectations of favourable economic data from US which will increase concerns of QE tapering from Federal Reserve in its meeting during the week. However, with Lawrence Summers having withdrawn himself for consideration of next Federal Reserve chairman and making way for Janet Yellen who is in favor of slower reduction of stimulus measures will lead to upside in the market sentiments. In the Indian markets, Rupee has appreciated sharply and prices will continue to trade lower.

Technical Outook for evening session – 16 September ’13 ( CMP as of 4.30 pm)
Commodity Gold Oct'13 Spot Gold Silver Dec’13 Spot Silver Crude Oil Sep’13 Nymex Crude Oil Oct’13 Natural Gas Sep’13 LME Copper Copper Nov’13 Zinc Sep’13 Lead Sep’13 Aluminum Sep’13 Nickel Sep’13 Unit Rs/10 gm $/oz Rs /kg $/oz Rs /bbl $/bbl Rs /mmbtu $/tonne Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Support 2 Support 1 CMP Resistance1 Resistance 2

29060 1295 48400 21.04 6620 105.4 226 7020 447 113.5 126.3 109 855

29330 1311 48800 21.66 6660 106.4 229 7050 450 114.4 127.5 110 862

29484 1316.7 49234 21.9 6716 106.84 231.2 7067 453 115.5 128.5 110.85 871

29750 1331 49750 22.28 6780 108 234 7120 456 116.8 130 111.8 882

29940 1340 50200 22.5 6830 108.6 236 7175 460 117.8 131.2 112.6 890

Important Events for Today
Indicator Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

Bank Holiday ECB President Draghi Speaks CPI y/y Core CPI y/y Empire State Manufacturing Index Capacity Utilization Rate Industrial Production m/m Bank Holiday

Japan Euro Euro Euro US US US Japan

All day 1:30pm 2:30pm 2:30pm 6:00pm 6:45pm 6:45pm All day

1.3% 1.1% -

1.3% 1.1% 9.2 77.8% 0.5% -

1.3% 1.1% 8.2 77.6% 0.0% -

High Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium -