MORGAN EUROPE

STANLEY

RESEARCH

Morgan Stanley & Co. International Limited+

Michael J Alsford
Michael.Alsford@morganstanley.com +44 (0)20 7425 3016

Theepan Jothilingam, CFA
Theepan.Jothilingam@morganstanley.com +44 (0)20 7425 9761

March 22, 2007

Neil W Perry
+44 (0)20 7425 8903

Industry View Attractive

Oil & Gas
UK E&Ps – Time to Drill
GICS Sector: Energy

We have a preference for explorers rather than producers. Exploration activity is due to accelerate during the course of the year. The level of newsflow this will generate will inevitably lead to an increased level of interest in the sector after a period of weak performance, in our view. Exploration activity is particularly focused on Soco and Tullow in the first part of the year and then Dana in the latter part. Soco, Tullow and Dana are our preferred names in the sector. We are initiating on Soco International with an Overweight-V rating and price target of 1800p/share. Our price target implies upside potential of 28%. Following recent exploration success in Vietnam at the end of 2006, Soco is carrying out a very active exploration programme in Vietnam in 2007, which should generate a significant level of newsflow over the next 6-12 months, and could act as a material catalyst for the shares. Soco is drilling for prospects in 2007 that are worth around 2370p/share unrisked, in our view. We are also resuming coverage on Cairn Energy with an Equal-weight-V rating and a price target of 1750p. Our price target implies upside potential of 13%. With the partial-IPO of Cairn India complete, the market will focus on progress from the midstream negotiations with the Indian government and ongoing development of the Rajasthan fields. We believe that Cairn offers good valuation support and absolute upside from current levels. However, Cairn is less likely to outperform the explorers in our view and we believe significant progress on the Rajasthan development needs to be made before we see a re-rating in the shares. E&P sector to outperform large caps and the wider market. M&A looks set to increase in the industry and is likely to support valuations, in our view. Risks to the oil price are upwards and the E&Ps are leveraged to this. We believe valuation is at its most attractive for the last 12 months and the sector is now discounting around $45/bbl.

Strategists' Recommended Weight MSCI Europe Weight

11.6% 9.0%

Companies Featured
Company Rating Price Target

Soco International Tullow Oil Dana Petroleum Cairn Energy Burren Energy

Overweight-V Overweight-V Overweight-V Equal-weight-V Equal-weight-V

1800p 460p 1300p 1750p 810p

What’s Changed
Company – What’s changed From/To

Dana – Price Target Tullow – Price Target Dana – ModelWare 2007e EPS Tullow – ModelWare 2007e EPS
Source: Morgan Stanley Research

1405p to 1300p 450p to 460p 95.05 to 81.34 27.11 to 24.76

What’s New
Company What’s new

Soco International Cairn Energy Burren Energy
Source: Morgan Stanley Research

Initiating coverage Resuming coverage Assuming coverage

Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Customers of Morgan Stanley in the U.S. can receive independent, third-party research on the company covered in this report, at no cost to them, where such research is available. Customers can access this independent research at www.morganstanley.com/equityresearch or can call 1-800-624-2063 to request a copy of this research.

For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section.
+= Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered pursuant to NASD/NYSE rules.

MORGAN March 22, 2007 Oil & Gas

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RESEARCH

Top Picks in UK E&P Sector
The E&P sector has been a poor performer so far this year, but we think that this has now thrown up some interesting opportunities. Despite a withdrawal of liquidity from the market, nothing has changed in terms of the fundamental picture for the E&Ps or energy more broadly. In fact, one could argue that the backdrop is more favourable today than it looked at the end of last year.
Exhibit 1

However, we now think that both the macro risk and the newsflow outlook are becoming more positive We now see some of the E&Ps as fundamentally undervalued. We firmly expect to see material performance from these levels by the end of this year. The main drivers are: • Increased rate of exploration Valuations at the lowest levels relative to core values for 12 months Oil price risk on the upside Increased consolidation in the sector UK gas price offers interesting entry point

E&P sector has been a poor performer this year
20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25%
-26.3% -14.1% -18.6% -17.5% -19.5% -17.9% -2.3% -1.4% -3.7% 2.1% 17.2%

• • •
-9.4% -11.4%

-9.7%

-30% Cairn Tullow Burren
YTD

Premier

Dana
6 months

Venture

Soco

Source: Datastream

Weak performance driven by market concerns, macro concerns and poor newsflow The weakness in the E&P sector so far this year has been driven by a combination of events. 1) The recent market correction hit higher beta stocks the hardest. It is inevitable that the E&Ps suffer under these conditions. 2) At the beginning of the year, the oil price fell from $62/bbl to $50/bbl, raising concerns about further declines, but it has since recovered to around $60/bbl. The UK gas price also fell to 18 pence per therm driven by oversupply at a time of unseasonably warm weather. 3) Poor newsflow has tended to dominate over the last four or five months, with exploration disappointment at Dana on two high potential wells and the disappointing debut of Cairn India. With the exception of Tullow there has been little to raise interest in the sector on the more positive side.

Ultimately, the most important driver of the E&P sector is exploration. Over the course of the next 12 months we expect the companies we cover to drill on prospects worth (unrisked) around 90% of their current value. The activity is biased towards Soco and Tullow in the first half of the year. Soco remains fairly consistently exposed during the course of the year, and Dana picks up in the second half. This is in stark contrast to the last six months, when only Tullow recorded material success and the number of high impact wells in aggregate was relatively low. This is a step change in activity.

UK E&Ps Order of Preference • • • • Soco Tullow Dana Cairn Burren

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MORGAN March 22, 2007 Oil & Gas

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The second most important consideration is of course valuation. Following the market sell off and the oil price decline from the middle of last year, we now see the E&Ps in aggregate trading closer to core value than at any time in the last 12 months. Certainly, macro concerns have justified some of the underperformance and market concerns cannot be ignored. But following this period of weakness, we think that current prices represent very attractive entry points into our preferred stocks. Most investors who avoided the E&Ps last year did so because they thought that the sector was overheated or that there was more oil price risk. Now the sector is not overheated and the oil price risk is on the upside, in our view.

Tullow Oil, Overweight-V, Price Target 460p Valuation support for Tullow is not as compelling as it is for the other stocks under our coverage, with the shares trading at a 7% discount to our base case NAV. However, Tullow is entering the key phase of its exploration and appraisal process in Uganda. With the potential for moving from an interesting domestic development to a company making international development as well as other exploration options elsewhere in the portfolio, we think that the risk-reward remains highly attractive. In aggregate Tullow is drilling for prospects that could potentially double the share price over the next 12 months in our view. The three key areas in Tullow’s exploration programme are: • Uganda — we have included around 78p/share for the exploration upside potential in Uganda in our base case NAV. However, we believe Uganda could be worth 290p/share unrisked. Namibia — we have included around 40p/share for the exploration upside potential in Namibia in our base case NAV. However, we believe Namibia could be worth around 230p/share unrisked. India — we have included around 15p/share for the exploration upside potential in India in our base case NAV. However, we believe India could be worth 90p/share unrisked.

Top picks
We believe that, overall, the sub-sector should outperform energy between now and the end of the year. Furthermore, we think that this performance could well be front-end loaded as we see the exploration programmes ramp up. Our top picks are biased towards those that we think will offer the most gearing to exploration over the next 6-12 months. Soco International, Overweight-V, Price Target 1800p Soco’s recent outperformance relative to the sector still leaves the shares trading at a 13% discount to our base case NAV. Our bull case implies some 68% upside potential from current levels. We believe the upside potential from Soco comes from: • Exploration exposure. In 2007, Soco is drilling for prospects in Vietnam that could be worth 2370p/share unrisked. Strong operational and earnings momentum. We also expect production volumes to ramp up from 6.7 kboe/d. in 2006 to 30.3k boe/d by 2010, an increase of 46% CAGR. We expect earnings to rise by around 45% CAGR over the same period. Valuation support from increased M&A activity. Soco’s management team have previously run two E&P companies that were acquired by larger oil companies (Conquest Exploration and Superior Oil). Given management history, we think that the sale of the company at some point is likely to be considered. This is the key year for Soco in Vietnam, at the end of which it should have broadly defined the scope of its business in that country.

Dana Petroleum, Overweight-V, Price Target 1300p The weakness year to date, driven by the low UK gas price and drilling disappointments in Kenya and Mauritania, leaves the shares discounting very little further success from Dana’s remaining exploration portfolio. The shares are trading at a 20% discount to our base case NAV and our bull case implies some 79% upside potential from current levels. With implied downside of just 13% to the core value, there is precious little “hope value” built into the price, we believe. • Exploration exposure: We estimate that Dana will still drill for some 710 mboe or 6.5x the current asset base in the next two years. It remains one of the the most geared to the drillbit among its peers. Unrisked this translates to about 2250p or about 2.0x the current share price. Operational momentum: During the course of this year we expect volumes to grow by 50% to 34kboe/d.

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MORGAN March 22, 2007 Oil & Gas

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Deal flow: Alongside exploration Dana has expanded its portfolio by frequent deal making particularly in the North Sea. We expect this process to continue during the course of this year.

Management buying shares: The company’s senior management has recently increased its stake in the business by 6.4%, purchasing an additional 42,202 shares.

Exhibit 2

UK E&P sector: Bear, base and bull case valuations
100% 677p 80% 2200p 60% +83% 40% +42% +54% 20% 1895p23% 0% 396p 7%
1647p

1838p 2377p 1121p +79% +68%

7%

1230p 20% -13%

808p 11% -18%

1596p 13%

-5% 1470p 895p -54% -26% 599p 1043p

-20%

-40%

-60%

170p

-80% TLW CNE DNX BUR SIA

Price Target

Upside to Base
Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates

Downside to Core

Upside to Bull

Downside to Bear

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MORGAN March 22, 2007 Oil & Gas

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E&Ps – Time to Drill
We believe that now is the right time to be returning to the E&P sector with a view to potentially material outperformance from this level to the end of the year. • • Risks to oil prices are upwards over the course of the year — and the E&Ps are leveraged to this. Exploration activity is due to accelerate during the course of this year following a rather barren period over the last 12 months with the exception of Tullow. Valuation is at its most attractive for the last 12 months. The weak UK gas price is fully discounted in share prices and rather than being a negative at this stage offers an opportunity to enter at a more attractive level. Consolidation will continue to support and we believe will accelerate. Timing this is virtually impossible, but waiting for it to start is pointless. The level of newsflow this can be expected to generate will inevitably lead to an increased level of interest in the sector after what has been a period of weak performance and disappointing newsflow (again with the exception of Tullow). In aggregate, we see the five companies under coverage drilling on prospects over the next two years that could add around 150% to their combined value on an unrisked basis. On a risked basis, this number comes down to around 20% of the current values of these companies, but nonetheless remains very material. Activity in exploration is inevitably lumpy and interest inevitably follows activity. In Exhibit 4 we show the timing of wells by company and the unrisked value of those wells should they be successful over the course of the next two years. Activity levels are clearly highest at Tullow and Soco during the first half of 2007 with increased exposure for Dana as the year progresses. Notably, Soco remains exposed consistently throughout the year, whereas others are very prone to just one or two wells that make all the difference. • Tullow is the most exposed in the first half of the year, with major wells expected in Q2 in Namibia and Uganda and then in Q3 with wells in India. Soco also has an active start to the year and remains relatively consistent throughout the year with wells primarily in Vietnam. Dana also has a major programme in 2007. It is slightly more back-end loaded than it is for the others; however, it is focused on the UK and therefore perhaps less risky than the wildcatting that it has been doing over the last six months.

• •

Exploration activity ramping up E&P sector performance is all about the E part rather than the P part. We anticipate a raised level of activity within the sector over the course of the next 12 months, with a particular focus on Soco and Tullow in the first part of the year and then Dana in the latter part.
Exhibit 3

Unrisked exploration as a percentage of share price
300%

250%

200%

150%

100%

50%

0% TLW SIA DNX BUR CNE

2007

2008/9

Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates

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MORGAN March 22, 2007 Oil & Gas

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Exhibit 4

UK E&Ps: Risked exploration activity in 2007 and 2008 as a percentage of base case NAV

14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08

Tullow
Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates

Soco

Dana

Burren

Cairn

Valuation at its most attractive for the last 12 months The E&P sector has been a very weak performer over the course of the last six months. Oil prices have fallen, UK gas prices have fallen, exploration at Dana has been unsuccessful and the market has recently placed a higher discount on risk. The E&Ps suffer under all these circumstances. However, at this point, we see the sector trading closer to its core value than at any time over the course of the last 12 months, and indeed longer.

Exhibit 5

Sell off offers an attractive entry point into UK E&Ps
875 775 675 575 475 375 275 175 75
01 -J an -0 4 01 -A pr -0 4 01 -J ul -0 4 01 -O ct -0 4 01 -J an -0 5 01 -A pr -0 5 01 -J ul -0 5 01 -O ct -0 5 01 -J an -0 6 01 -A pr -0 6 01 -J ul -0 6 01 -O ct -0 6 01 -J an -0 7
Cairn Burren Dana Soco Tullow Premier Venture

Source: Datastream

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MORGAN March 22, 2007 Oil & Gas

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Our core value includes the existing assets alone, with no upside built in for exploration success. Furthermore, it is based on a long-term oil price forecast of $53/bbl Brent and reflects the current weak UK gas prices. Nevertheless, after the sell off in E&P, most stocks are now trading with only very limited downside to their core values. The notable exception is obviously Tullow, although this is the one stock with the greatest chance of “company making” success in the event that it is able to convert the Ugandan position into an international development. From this level, we think that the balance of risk offers the best skew that the sector has seen for the last few years. Obviously, concerns about oil prices or further risk aversion in broader markets could further extend what we see as a discount valuation for the sector. But the reality is that over a sensible time horizon, we would expect the E&Ps to return to levels that are much closer to our base valuations. Indeed, with higher levels of activity — and particularly if accompanied by a following wind from the oil price — we could see them trade somewhere between their base values and the upside case that we present. Weak UK gas prices offer the opportunity Many in the market are concerned about the weakness in UK gas prices. Of course, a weaker UK price is a negative for the E&P sector, with Tullow and Dana the most exposed among the companies we cover. The weakness in both the UK spot and future gas price has been driven by a period of unseasonably warm weather at a time of increased supply following the completion of the
Exhibit 6

Exhibit 7

Earnings/NAV sensitivities to UK gas price change
% change

2007e EPS Tullow Dana Base Case NAV sensitivity to 10% move in LT UK gas price Tullow Dana
Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates

-8.6% -7.5% -1.4% -3.7%

Langeled pipeline from Norway and Interconnector expansion at the end of 2006. We expect UK gas prices to remain low for the remainder of the year, with storage facilities full and new supply from the Ormen Lange pipeline in Norway likely to offset any increase in seasonal demand. Concerns inevitably tend to be focused on the impact on earnings. With this note, we have revised our 2007e UK gas price downwards for this year from 40p/therm to 33.5p/therm and correspondingly have reduced our earnings estimates. Below we also show the sensitivity of the companies to a 10% move in the UK gas price. More to the point, as with the oil price and as with other stocks in energy, it is not the movement of forecasts that drives share prices, it is the movement of the commodity. The UK gas price has already fallen hard, the market is fully aware that it has fallen hard. We acknowledge that it is not likely to bounce up sharply in the near future, and anticipate that it could remain sloppy into the summer. However, we are firmly of the view that it is now at levels that are unsustainable in the longer term as we believe that for the UK to attract the gas necessary in a short market the domestic price must rise to a level that will attract LNG. It is difficult to estimate exactly what this level will be, but we believe that a long-term price for UK gas at below 38-40p per therm lacks credibility. Gas will simply go elsewhere. Those investors who did not participate in E&P last year often cited the high oil price as a reason not to buy into the sector. Equally, we believe investors should now be attracted by lower macro conditions, particularly as these conditions are now reflected in share prices and are not, in our view, sustainable beyond the relatively short term.
Exhibit 8

UK spot natural gas price has fallen sharply
180 160 140 UK Spot Price p/therm 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
Ja n0 Ap 1 r-0 Ju 1 l-0 O 1 ct -0 Ja 1 n0 Ap 2 r-0 Ju 2 l-0 O 2 ct -0 Ja 2 n0 Ap 3 r-0 Ju 3 l-0 O 3 ct -0 Ja 3 n0 Ap 4 r-0 Ju 4 l-0 O 4 ct -0 Ja 4 n0 Ap 5 r-0 Ju 5 l-0 O 5 ct -0 Ja 5 n0 Ap 6 r-0 Ju 6 l-0 O 6 ct -0 Ja 6 n07

UK gas price and Brent oil price assumptions
2006 2007e 2008e 2009e 2010e

UK Gas price (p/therm) Brent ($/bbl)

43.2 65.3

33.5 58.0

38.2 48.0

38.2 53.0

38.2 53.0

Source: Datastream

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

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MORGAN March 22, 2007 Oil & Gas

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Consolidation looms We have touched on this theme many times over the past few years. However, it has been accelerating over the last 18 months and we think will extend to UK E&P over the next 12 months for several reasons: • • • Finding and development costs continue to rise Emerging market players are becoming more aggressive Company oil price views are now in line with or moving above equity market views

prices and have shorter memories. The oil companies tend to be less swayed by spot and take longer-term views with the memories of 1998 and 1999 very much in their minds. However, since the decline in oil prices began in the middle of 2006, equity market expectations of fears of oil prices have changed quite dramatically. On the other hand, expectations of long-term oil prices appear to have continued to rise for Big Oil. It is impossible to quantify exactly what the base expectation is for oil companies as they have stopped giving a view on mid-cycle prices. But their actions seem to indicate price expectations are now in the $50’s. BP now explicitly forecasts its volume numbers on the basis of $60/bbl and we estimate that for most of the oil companies, we would need to use an oil price of $50 + for them to be able to fund their capex programme and pay the dividend without borrowing. The cash flow cycle is far tighter at $50 than many would imagine.

Industry oil price views rising Over the last five years, the equity market has been consistently ahead of the industry in raising oil price views. Equity markets tend to be more heavily influenced by spot

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MORGAN March 22, 2007 Oil & Gas

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Soco International: Significant Exploration Programme Ahead
We are initiating coverage on Soco International with an Overweight-V rating and price target of 1800p. Our price target implies 28% upside potential from current levels. The shares have recently outperformed the sector following the full year results and the announcement that the company is preparing to drill an intensive exploration and appraisal drilling campaign offshore Vietnam in 2007. The recent performance still leaves the shares trading at a 13% discount to our base case NAV. Our bull case implies some 68% upside potential from current levels. We believe upside potential from Soco comes from: 1) Exploration upside. The key focus of Soco’s exploration programme is Vietnam in 2007 and we expect the company to drill up to 8 wells from now until the end of the year. Soco is drilling for prospects in Vietnam that we estimate could be worth 2370p/share unrisked – we have only included around 340p/share of the exploration upside potential in Vietnam in our base case NAV. 2) Strong operational and earnings momentum. Soco offers investors exposure to exploration upside, but also strong operational and earnings momentum over the period 2006-2010. We forecast production volumes to ramp up from 7 kboe/d in 2006 to 30 k boe/d by 2010, an increase of 46% CAGR. We expect earnings to rise by around 45% CAGR over the same period. The company also recently upgraded its reserves to 160.6m bbls at its full year results from 133.2m bbls in 2005, following successful appraisal drilling in both Vietnam and Yemen. We expect more appraisal drilling in Yemen during 2007. 3) Valuation support from increased M&A activity. Soco has a 16.8% interest in the East Shabwa block in Yemen, which is a high quality asset operated by Total. However, Soco’s interests in Block 9-2 and Block 16-1 in Vietnam would offer the most interest to potential acquirers in our view. With continued exploration and appraisal success in 2007, Block 9-2 and Block 16-1 in Vietnam could develop into a “world class” basin. The international integrated oil companies are already operating in the region and Soco’s Vietnam assets could provide a good strategic fit to their portfolios. Block 9-2 and 16-1 are located to the north of ConocoPhillips’ operations and to the south of Talisman.

What to look for in 2007
2007 – Drilling on Block 16-1 (Vietnam) – unrisked 2370p/sh H2 07 — Drilling in Yemen – unrisked 74p/sh H2 07 – Congo/Angola – 2D seismic Soco’s management team has also previously run two E&P companies that were acquired (Conquest Exploration and Superior Oil). Management has recently stated that the company is “up for sale” every day. The company has a relatively low free float of around 54% with the remaining shareholders made up of long-term strategic investors and management. The CEO and CFO own around 2% of the issued share capital of the company. We argue that this shareholder structure could increase the likelihood of M&A, as majority shareholder approval would be easier to reach if a bid were to be made for the company. Valuation and catalysts Soco’s valuation is attractive on a relative and absolute basis, in our opinion. The shares are trading at a 13% discount to our base case NAV of 1596p. We believe short-term newsflow should act as a catalyst for the shares: 1) Vietnam drilling programme, 2007 Soco plans to execute an intensive drilling programme in Vietnam until the end of the year, drilling eight wells on Block 16-1. The company is currently drilling Prospect “S”, which is estimated at around 200m bbls of recoverable reserves. We expect an announcement of the well results in the next 3-4 weeks. We have 47p/share in our base case NAV for Prospect “S”, but believe the well could be worth up to 280p/share unrisked. 2) Yemen drilling programme, 2007 Soco plans to drill development and injector wells during 2007 in the Kharir field in Yemen to increase the productivity of the basin. Water injection and further appraisal drilling could lead to further increases in reserves in our view. In addition, the company plans to carry out an exploration program in the later part of the year. We have 12p/share in our base case NAV, but believe the programme could be worth up to 74p/share. .

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MORGAN March 22, 2007 Oil & Gas

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Exhibit 9

Soco International: Core Value, Base Case and Bull Case
2,500 643 2,000 53 19 1,596 138 2,377

pence/sh

1,500 1,043

340

12

41

23

20

12

1,000

Current share price 1411p

500
"Base Exploration upside"

"Base Development Upside"

Increased success

0
Yem en Yem en Expl orati on Deve lopm ent Con go Con go Case Vietn am Vietn am Ango la valu e Case Bull DRC

Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates

Base

Core

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MORGAN March 22, 2007 Oil & Gas

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Soco International: Investment Positives
1) Material potential for exploration success in 2007 The key focus is Vietnam with an 8 well exploration program planned. In addition, the company plans exploratory drilling towards the end of the year in Yemen following an appraisal and development drilling campaign during the year. We estimate on an unrisked basis, exploration contributes about 430p to the base NAV of 1596p. On an unrisked basis, the exploration portfolio could add up to 3000p of value or double the current share price. quality is shrinking and the western oil companies are finding it harder and harder to access resources. Consolidation in the industry will provide Soco with valuation support. With continued exploration and appraisal success in 2007, Soco’s Vietnamese interests could develop into a “world-class” basin and we argue that these assets could be of particular interest to potential acquirers. Soco is predominantly an explorer, not a developer, and realising value from Vietnam would allow management to focus on developing its exploration activities in West Africa, which we expect will be the next focus for Soco following the exploration programme planned in Vietnam in 2007. 4) Harsh licensing terms in Vietnam is market perception A widely perceived negative in the market is that the contract terms in Vietnam are harsh when compared with other countries. However, following detailed discussions with the company, while the petroleum contracts signed with Vietnamese government on Block 9-2 and 16-1 have similarities to production sharing contracts, there is one key difference. The profit oil is split between PetroVietnam (representing the Vietnamese government) and foreign contractors in line with their interests in the petroleum contract. There is no additional government take from profit oil, which is common under most PSCs. This adds material value to the TGT and CNV field asset values, in our view.
Exhibit 10

2) Further reserve and appraisal upside
Soco announced a reserve upgrade from 133.2m bbls to 160.6m bbls at the full year results following recent drilling successes in Vietnam and Yemen. We expect further appraisal upside potential in 2007 from Yemen (around 25m boe) and in 2008 from Vietnam (around 48m boe) and Congo (26m boe) and reflected this in our base case. We have included 2P reserves of 144m boe in our core NAV, applying a 50% risk factor to the company’s 11.9m 2P reserves in Congo, as the company plans an exploration and appraisal program in 2008 before developing these reserves. We have also included only 40% of Soco’s 2P reserves in Thailand of 18.4m boe, as the company has recently signed an agreement that would reduce its interest in the Bualaung field from 100% to 40%. 3) Operational and earnings momentum We expect production to to ramp up significantly from 7 kboe/d in 2006 to around 30 kboe/d in 2010, an increase of 46%. This growth is underpinned by the development of two major projects in Vietnam, CNV and TGT. We argue that this growth alongside a smaller development planned in Thailand (Buluang) should underpin strong growth in cash flow generation. Our forecast growth in volumes drives earnings growth of around 45% CAGR between 2006-2010. 4) Undemanding valuation versus peers The shares have recently outperformed the sector following the full year results and the announcement that the company is preparing to drill the first well of an intensive exploration and appraisal drilling campaign offshore Vietnam in 2007. However, the recent performance still leaves the shares trading at a 13% discount to our base case NAV. Our bull case implies some 68% upside potential from current levels. This compares with Tullow at 66% and Dana at 79%. 5) Support from M&A activity We expect the pace of M&A to intensify in the industry over the next few years. The number of assets available of any real

Vietnam Licensing Terms
Block 16-1 Block 9-2

Working Interests: Petro-Vietnam (PV) (%) SOCO VN (%) OPECO (%) PTTEP (%) Summary PSA Terms Cost Oil (%) Profit Oil (%) Profit Oil split PV (Government) (%) Foreign Parties (%) For both Blocks: Income tax (%) Royalty Carried costs
Source: Company data

41.0 28.5 2.0 28.5 35.0 65.0 41.0 59.0

50.0 25.0 0.0 25.0 35 (50 if <20k boe/d) 65.0 50.0 50.0

50.0 Sliding Scale averaging 8% Recovered out of government cost oil

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MORGAN March 22, 2007 Oil & Gas

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Soco International: Investment Negatives
1) Less diversified – around 75% of value in Vietnam Soco has interests in assets in Yemen, Thailand, Congo (Republic and DRC) and Angola. However, the majority of the company’s value and exploration programme, particularly in 2007, is focused in Vietnam. Soco’s Vietnamese interests represent 79% of our core NAV value and 76% of our base case NAV. Soco’s Vietnamese assets are held by its 80% owned subsidiary Soco Vietnam, which has a 25% interest in Block 9-2 (Ca Ngu Vang) and a 28.5% in Block 16-1 (Te Giac Trang). Soco also owns a further direct 2% interest in Block 16-1 following its recent acquisition of OPECO for $22m in June 2006. Soco’s other core area is Yemen where it has a 16.8% stake in the East Shabwa Block (operated by Total). This represents around 14% of our core NAV and 11% of our base case NAV. We believe that there is further exploration and appraisal upside from Yemen in 2007. The portfolio, outside of Vietnam and Yemen, continues to be developed. The company expects the Bualuang field in Thailand to be onstream in 2008 - we forecast net production of around 3.6kb/d rising to around 4.0k b/d by 2009. In addition, the company is developing its interests in Africa with seismic testing at the Nganzi field (DRC) planned for 2007 and a drilling program planned in the Marine XI block in Congo in 2008. 2) Low free float Soco has a relatively low free float of 54% with the remaining shares held by long-term strategic investors that have representatives on the Soco Board. The largest shareholder is Pontoil Intertrade Ltd, which owns around 20% of the issued share capital of the company and has been a shareholder since 1999. The next largest private shareholder is the family trust of the company’s former chairman, Patrick Maugein, who died last year, which has around an 8% stake in the company. We believe the risk of the family trust selling its holding in the near future is low given that one of the key advisers to the trust is Soco’s new chairman, Mr Rui de Sousa. Management also owns around 3% of the business — Ed Story, CEO and co-founder of Soco, owns around 1.6m shares or 2.2% of the issued share capital, and Roger Cagle, deputy CEO and CFO owns 0.7m shares, or 1.0% of the issued share capital. 3) Exploration licences running out in Vietnam We understand that any field areas not secured in an appraisal area by December 2007 will have to be relinquished. Soco has identified a number of exploration prospects that it plans to drill before the end of the year. The company’s aim is to drill as many prospects as possible and maximise the potential upside from the drilling program. The company currently has only one drilling rig operating at present, which is only available into the second quarter of 2007. However, 2 further rigs have been contracted - one is expected to be available at the end of Q1 and the other in Q2. The company plans to drill 8 exploration wells on Block 16-1 and 3-5 development wells on Block 9-2 during 2007.
Exhibit 11

Two major developments planned in Vietnam
Vietnam—Two Major Developments in Hand

Source: Company presentation

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Soco — Valuation Scenarios
Exhibit 12

Summary of Base Net Asset Valuation, 2007
NPV (p/share)

Thailand Vietnam Yemen Congo Commercial + Contingent Petrochina cash payments PV (Net debt)/cash end of 2006 Overheads Core value Total Risked Exploration Total Risked Development Risked Upside (E, D, A) BASE NAV (Core + Risked upside)
Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates

84 824 145 27 1,080 24 (24) (37) 1,043

basis) or 144m boe (on a working interest basis), which gives a value of 1,043p. The scenario assumes zero potential upside from both exploration and development projects in Soco’s portfolio. We also add the present value of future deferred payments relating to the sale of Soco’s Mongolian assets to Petrochina in 2005 (24p/share) and deduct Soco’s net debt following a $250m convertible bond issue in May 2006 (24p/share) and present value of group overheads (37p/share).
Exhibit 13

SIA NAV at Different Oil Price Scenarios
3,000 3,000

429 124 553
2,000 Bull case 1,914p 1,500 Base case 1,293p 2,500 2,500

Current share price 1411p

Bull case 2,377p

Bull case 2,627p

2,000

1,596

Base case 1,596p

Base case 1,760p

1,500

Base case valuation — 1,596p We estimate a base NAV or fair valuation for Soco of 1,596p per share, assuming a long-term Brent oil price of US$53/bbl. We provide a full breakdown of the NAV later in this report. Our price target of 1,800p for Soco is derived by applying around a 15% premium to our base case NAV of 1,530p. We believe this is justified given the material exploration-driven newsflow that we anticipate in the coming months. Bull case (2,377p)… and blue sky (3,516p) Our bull case scenario implies a value of 2,377p or potential upside of 68% from the current share price. It consists of our core valuation and then the assumption that the company is two and half times more successful in the exploration and development of resources in our base case valuation (up to a maximum of 100% certainty of success). We have also estimated a blue sky valuation — this scenario is a combination of the core value plus the complete de-risking of potential exploration and development projects incorporated in our base net asset valuation. We derive a value of 3,516p on this basis or some 223% potential upside to current levels. Core valuation — 1,043p/sh We estimate that the company’s producing assets have reserves remaining of some 115 mboe (on an entitlement

1,000

1,000 Bear case Bear case 1,147p 500

Bear case 500 851p

1,043p

0 $40 MS ass. $53 $60

0

Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates

SIA NAV at different oil price scenarios
• • • At US$53/bbl long term, the shares are trading at a 26% premium to our core valuation. At a long-term oil price of US$60, on our bull case scenario we see upside potential of 68% (to 2,377p). However, if the shares were to assume US$40/bbl and also return to their core valuation (that is, without any risked upside), Soco could see a fall of 39% from current levels, on our estimates. We estimate around a 1.5% move in the base NAV for every US$1/bbl movement in the long-term oil price.

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Tullow — Valuation Scenarios
Exhibit 14

Summary of Base Net Asset Valuation, 2007
Summary Base NAV NPV

(p/share) UK Congo Cote d'Ivoire Equatorial Guinea Gabon Pakistan Nambia (Kudu Phase 1) Uganda Mauritania Commercial + Contingent PV Tariff Income PV Hedge positions (Net debt)/cash Overheads Core value Total Risked Exploration Total Risked Development Risked Upside (E, D, A) BASE NAV (Core + Risked upside)
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

68 22 20 49 28 6 17 23 19 253 11 (3) (63) (28) 170

Bull case (677p)… and blue sky (1,307p) Our bull case scenario implies a value of 677p or potential upside of 83% from the current share price. It consists of our core valuation and then the assumption that the company is two and half times more successful in the exploration and development of resources in our base case valuation (up to a maximum of 100% certainty of success). Our bull case valuation derives a value of 1,307p on this basis or some 254% potential upside to current levels. The bear case or a core valuation — 170p/sh We estimate that the company has commercial and contingent reserves remaining of some 357 mboe (on an entitlement basis), which gives a value of 170p. The scenario assumes zero potential upside from both exploration and development projects in Tullow’s portfolio.
Exhibit 15

TLW NAV at Different Oil Price Scenarios
900 900 800 700

205 20 225

800 700 600

Current share price 369p
Bull case Bull case 605p Bull case 715p

600 500 400 Base case 423p 300 200 100 0

396

500 400

677p

Base case valuation — 396p We estimate a base NAV or fair valuation for Tullow of 396p per share, assuming long-term prices of US$53/bbl Brent and 38p/th for UK gas prices. We have updated our NAV following the full year results and increased our risked exploration in Uganda by around 25p/share. Management indicated a range for recoverable resources in Uganda of 100-250m barrels from the existing discoveries to date, which does not include the deeper primary target at Kingfisher (around 300m boe) that Tullow plans to drill towards the end of the year. Management also provided further guidance on the gross upside for the Ngassa prospect in Uganda (900m boe), Mahogany in Ghana (600m boe) and Matamata (1000m boe). These prospect sizes are significantly larger than previously indicated and underlines Tullow’s exploration upside potential. Our NAV also incorporates the change to our 2007 UK gas price assumption. Our price target for Tullow is derived by applying around 15% premium to our base case NAV of 396p. We believe this is justified given the material newsflow that we anticipate in the coming months.

300 200 100 0 $40 Base case 345p

Base case 396p

Bear case 139p

Bear case 170p MS ass. $53

Bear case 187p $60

Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates

TLW NAV at different oil price scenarios
• • • At US$53/bbl long term, the shares are trading at a 7% discount to our base case. At a long-term oil price of US$60, on our bull case scenario we see upside potential of 94% (to 715p). However, if the shares were to assume US$40/bbl and also return to their core valuation (that is, without any risked upside), Tullow could see a fall of 63% from current levels, on our estimates. We estimate around a 1.0% move in the base NAV for every US$1/bbl movement in the long-term oil price.

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Dana — Valuation Scenarios
Exhibit 16

Summary of Base Net Asset Valuation, 2007
NPV

(p/share) UK Netherlands Russia Commercial UK Netherlands Commercial + Contingent MV of 17.2% interest in Faroes Petroleum (Net debt)/cash end 2006 Overheads Core value Total Risked Exploration Total Risked Development Risked Upside (E, D, A) Base NAV (Core + Risked upside)
Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates

450 7 31 488 310 10 809

We have also estimated a blue sky valuation — this scenario is a combination of the core value plus the complete de-risking of potential exploration and development projects incorporated in our base net asset valuation. We derive a value of 3,417p on this basis or some 230% potential upside to current levels. The bear case or a core valuation — 885p/sh We estimate that the company’s producing assets have reserves remaining of some 129 mboe (on an entitlement basis), which gives a value of 895p.
Exhibit 17

16 128 (58) 895

DNX NAV at Different Oil Price Scenarios
2,500 2,500

Current share price 1034p
2,000 2,000

298 36 335 1,230
1,000 1,500 Bull case 1,615 Bull case 1,838 Bull case 1,958 1,500

Base case Base case Base case 1,074 1,230 1,314 1,000

500

Bear case 770

Bear case 895

Bear case 962 500

Base case valuation —1,230p We estimate a base NAV or fair valuation for Dana of 1,230p per share, assuming long-term prices of US$53/bbl Brent and 38p/th for UK gas prices. This incorporates the change to our 2007 UK gas price assumption, which reduces our base case NAV by around 4%. This leaves the shares currently trading at a 20% discount to our fair value estimate. We provide a full breakdown of the NAV later in this report. Our price target for Dana is derived by applying around a 5% premium to our base case NAV of 1,230p. We believe this is justified given the risk of higher oil prices, the risk of increased consolidation in the sector and material newsflow on deals and exploration from Dana in the coming months. Bull case (1,838p)… and blue sky (3,417p) Our bull case scenario implies a value of 1,838p or potential upside of 79% from the current share price. It consists of our core valuation and then the assumption that the company is two and half times more successful in the exploration and development of resources in our base case valuation (up to a maximum of 100% certainty of success).

0 $40 MS ass. $53 $60

0

Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates

DNX NAV at different oil price scenarios
• • At a long-term oil price of US$60, on our bull case scenario we see upside potential of 90% (to 1,958p). However, if the shares were to assume US$40/bbl and also return to their core valuation (that is, without any risked upside), Dana could see a fall of 25% from current levels, on our estimates. We estimate around a 0.9% move in the base NAV for every US$1/bbl movement in the long-term oil price.

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Cairn - Valuation Scenarios
Exhibit 18

Summary of Base Net Asset Valuation, 2007
NPV (p/share) Capricorn Cairn India (69%) IPO proceeds to be distributed to shareholders Remaining IPO Proceeds Cairn Energy - Core value Capricorn - Total Risked Upside Cairn India - Total Risked Upside (69%) Risked Upside (E, D, A) BASE NAV (Core + Risked upside)
Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates

Sangu (Bangladesh). Cairn also has a 10% interest in the UD-1 well in the KG basin.
25 1,195 300 127 1,647 18 229 248 1,895

The core valuation (1,647p/sh)… bear case (1,470p/sh) We estimate Cairn’s core value at 1,647p, which is about 7% above the current share price. Cairn’s 69% stake in Cairn India represents around 73% of the core value, with the remaining value split between the net IPO proceeds (26%) and Capricorn (1.5%), which principally includes Bangladesh. We estimate Cairn’s bear case at 1,470p/sh, which is around a 5% discount to the current share price. Our bear case assumes: • The discount on the crude sales agreement is 15%, higher than Cairn management’s expectations of 3-10% (and our base case assumption of 10%) Cairn pays its share (70%) of the Mangala/Viramgam 340km crude pipeline and is not eligble for cost recovery, impacting our Cairn India NAV by $240m Cairn India has to pay CESS production tax (at Rs 900/MT), impacting our Cairn India NAV by $260m.

Base case valuation — 1,895p We estimate a base NAV or fair valuation for Cairn of 1,895p per share, assuming long-term prices of US$53/bbl Brent. This leaves the shares currently trading at a 23% discount to our fair value estimate. We provide a full breakdown of the NAV later in this report. We have set our 12 month price target at around a 10% discount to our base case NAV at 1,895p. We feel this is justified given the risks around development of the Rajasthan fields, the continued discount of Cairn India to what we see as fair value and the lack of material exploration newsflow in the short-term. Bull case valuation — 2,200p Our bull case scenario implies a value of 2,200p or potential upside of 42% from the current share price. It consists of our core valuation and then the assumption that the company is two and half times more successful in the exploration and development of resources in our base case valuation (up to a maximum of 100% certainty of success). These include: • Enhanced oil recovery (EOR): Cairn has stated that there is a strong likelihood that it will be able to use EOR on the Northern fields and increase 2P reserves. Raising recovery factors to 35% on Mangala, Aishwariya, and Bhagyam: Individual field RFs indicated by Cairn imply an aggregate RF of 33% for the three largest Northern fields with an estimate for Mangala at 36%. While not all fields or reservoirs are alike, we believe that there is the possibility to increase these recovery factors. Value of additional discoveries: Cairn has less exposure to exploration than its peers. However, exploration drilling planned for the Ravva (India) and


Exhibit 19

CNE NAV at Different Oil Price Scenarios
2,600 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 $40 MS ass. $53 $60 Core case 1,404p Core case 1,647p Core case 1,772p Bull case 1,852p Base case 1,602p 2,600

Current share price 1546p
Bull case 2,200p Base case 1,895p

2,400 Bull case 2,380p Base case 2,046p 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0

Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates

Cairn NAVs at different oil price scenarios
• Cairn offers the least spread in terms of our valuation scenarios versus the current share price with our bear case valuation at some 1,470p (-5%) while the bull case implies some 42% potential upside at 2,200p. This is due partly to the high contribution from the core value and also the result of a limited exploration program. We estimate a 1.3% move in the base NAV for every US$1/bbl movement in long-term oil prices.

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Burren - Valuation Scenarios
Exhibit 20

Burren Summary of Base Net Asset Valuation
Summary Base NAV

Turkmenistan Congo Commercial + Contingent Investment in HOEC (Net debt)/cash Overheads Core value Total Risked Exploration Total Risked Development Risked Upside (E, D, A) BASE NAV (Core + Risked upside)
Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates.

235 392 627 12 18 (58) 599 110 98 209 808

this basis or some 198% potential upside to current levels. While Burren looks more attractive under this scenario than that of its peers, it is more a function of the upside derived from its more recent and, in our view, more speculative licenses in Egypt, Oman and Yemen. These three countries if de-risked represent almost 845p of value compared to our risked basis at only 74p. The bear case or a core valuation — 599p/sh We estimate that the company’s producing assets have reserves remaining of some 101 mboe (on an entitlement basis), which gives a value of 599p. It essentially consists of the M’Boundi and Burun fields, a market value for Burren’s interest in Hindustan Oil Exploration Company (HOEC) and the financial items. With M’Boundi, we currently assume oil in place of 1.4 bn boe and a recovery factor of 23%.
Exhibit 21

a) Base asset valuation — 808p Our base NAV, using our long-term oil price assumption of US$53/bbl Brent, is 808p, which leaves the shares currently trading at a 11% discount to our estimate of fair value. Our base case NAV includes the acquisition of an additional 5.5% interest in M’Boundi (Congo) for $155m, increasing Burren’s total interest in M’Boundi to 37%. We provide a full breakdown of the NAV later in this report. Our price target for Burren is in line with our base case NAV at 810p/share. We believe this is justified given the lack of material exploration and appraisal upside potential in the short-term and uncertainty around the political situation in Turkmenistan. We highlighted the potential sale of M’Boundi by Maurel & Prom (M&P) to Eni as a potential catalyst for Burren. However, the price paid by Eni was in line with our estimates, and while Eni’s presence should give the market more confidence over the deliverability of the water injection program at M’Boundi, the full results from this programme are unlikely to be seen until 2010. Bull case (1,121p)… and blue sky (2,173p) Our bull case scenario implies a value of 1,121p or potential upside of 54% from the current share price. It consists of our core valuation and then the assumption that the company is two and half times more successful in the exploration and development of resources in our base case valuation (up to a maximum of 100% certainty of success). We have also estimated a blue sky valuation — this scenario is a combination of the core value plus the complete de-risking of potential exploration and development projects incorporated in our base net asset valuation. We derive a value of 2173p on

BUR NAV at Different Oil Price Scenarios
1,600 1,600

1,400

1,400

1,200

Current share price 730p
Bull case Bull case Bull case 1,121p Base case 808p 1,238p Base case 897p

1,200

1,000

1,000

800

940p Base case 676p

800

600

600

400 Bear case Bear case 200 499p 0 $40 MS ass. $53 $60 599p Bear case 670p

400

200

0

Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates.

BUR NAVs at different oil price scenarios
• • At a long-term oil price of US$60, on our bull case scenario we see upside potential of 69% (to 1,238p). However, if the shares were to assume US$40/bbl and also return to their core valuation (that is, without any risked upside), Burren could see a fall of 32% from current levels, on our estimates. We estimate around a 1.4% move in the base NAV for every US$1/bbl movement in the long-term oil price.

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Exhibit 22

SOCO International - NAV Summary
Co Interest (%) Ent Rem Reserves (2P, mboe) ($/ ent bbl) ($m) (£m) (p/share) NPV NPV NPV NPV

Commercial Reserves East Shabwa Buluang Ca Ngu Vang Te Giac Trang Commercial Reserves Marine XI Contingent Reserves Petrochina cash payments PV (Net debt)/cash end of 2006 Overheads Core value Risked Upside

Country Yemen Thailand Vietnam Vietnam

16.8% 40.0% 20.0% 23.8%

8.9 5.2 32.6 65.3 111.9 2.7 2.7

22.6 22.5 10.7 12.1

201 116 349 791 1,457 37 37 33 (32) (50)

106 61 184 416 767 19 19 18 (18) (27) 759

145 84 252 572 1,054 27 27 24 (24) (37) 1,043

Congo

50%

37.5%

13.5

115 Country Risk Factor % 13% 13% 13% 13% 17% 10% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17% 10% Co Interest (%) 38% 38% 85% 85% 17% 17% 24% 24% 24% 24% 24% 24% 24% 24% Ent Rem Reserves (2P, mboe) 1.5 1.5 2.7 2.7 1 1 3 6 6 3 6 6 3 12 56 NPV ($/ ent bbl) 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.8 20.4 10.8 10.9 10.9 10.9 10.9 10.9 10.9 10.9 9.1

1,443 Risked NPV ($m) 16 16 29 29 17 15 32 65 65 32 65 65 32 114 592

NPV NPV (£m) (p/share) 9 9 15 15 9 8 17 34 34 17 34 34 17 60 312 11.7 11.7 20.7 20.7 12.4 11.1 23.5 46.9 46.9 23.5 46.9 46.9 23.5 82.1 429

Exploration (E) Marine XI Marine XI Nganzi Nganzi East Shabwa Cabinda North Block 16-1- Q Block 16-1- S Block 16-1- T Block 16-1- L Block 16-1- M Block 16-1- N Block 16-1- O Block 16-1- E Total Risked Exploration Development & Appraisal (D&A) TGT upside - Waterflood TGT upside - Appraisal Marine XI Kharir - Water flood Total Risked Development Risked Upside (E, D & A) BASE NAV (Core + Risked upside)
Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates

Congo Congo DRC DRC Yemen Angola Vietnam Vietnam Vietnam Vietnam Vietnam Vietnam Vietnam Vietnam

Vietnam Vietnam Congo Yemen

25% 17% 20% 20%

24% 24% 37.5% 16.8%

2.2 4.5 2.4 0.8 13 68 183

10.9 10.9 10.8 20.4

24 49 26 15 172 764 2,208

13 26 14 8 91 402 1,161

17.6 35.2 18.7 11.1 124 553 1,596

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Exhibit 23

Tullow Oil - NAV Summary: Core Value
Risk Factor (%) Co Interest (%) Rem Reserves (2P, mboe) ($/ bbl) ($m) (£m) (p/share) NPV NPV NPV NPV

Commercial Reserves CMS area & Thames/Hewett M'Boundi Espoir Ceiba Okume Tchatamba Etame Niungo Turnix Echira Limande Oba, Obangue &Tsengui Chinguetti Sara & Suri & Chachar Commercial Reserves Contingent Reserves Chinguetti phase 3 & 4 Tiof Phase I Kudu Phase 1 Uganda (Nzizi and Mputa) UK (inc 2006 discs.) Contingent Reserves

Country UK Congo Cote d'Ivoire Equatorial Guinea Equatorial Guinea Gabon Gabon Gabon Gabon Gabon Gabon Gabon Mauritania Pakistan

Var 11.0% 21.33% 14.25% 14.25% 25.00% 7.50% 40.00% 27.50% 40.00% 20.00% Var 19.00% 38.18%

64 16 17 12 22 8 2 8 1 1 1 2 7 11 173

11.6 18.7 16.0 16.6 21.0 19.4 22.5 12.4 19.2 15.3 19.3 15.3 20.0 7.5 15.0

745 305 278 206 458 162 44 95 22 12 17 28 142 83 2,595

392 161 146 108 241 85 23 50 12 7 9 15 75 43 1,366

55 22 20 15 34 12 3 7 2 1 1 2 10 6 191

Country Mauritania 25% Mauritania 75% Namibia 100% Uganda 75% UK

19% 22% 90% 100%

2 8 117 41 16 184

20.0 10.0 2.0 7.5 11.6 4.6

35 81 234 311 183 844

18 43 123 164 96 444

3 6 17 23 13 62

PV Tariff Income PV Hedge positions (Net debt)/cash Overheads Core value
Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates

158 (41) (884) (394) 357 2,277

80 (21) (449) (200) 1,220

11 (3) (63) (28) 170

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Exhibit 24

Tullow Oil- NAV Summary - Risked Exploration
Risked Upside Country Risk Factor (%) Co Interest (%) Rem Reserves (2P, mboe) ($/ bbl) NPV Risked NPV ($m) NPV NPV

(£m) (p/share)

Exploration (E) UK Bangladesh Cameroon Cote d'Ivoire Gabon Mauritania Namibia India Pakistan Senegal Uganda Ghana Suriname Falkland Islands Guyane Tanzania Total Risked Exploration Development & Appraisal (D&A) Schooner & Ketch & NW upside Bangora -1/Lalmai Tevet Labeidna Banda Pelican Faucon Total Risked Development Risked Upside (E, D, A) BASE NAV (Core + Risked upside)
Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates

20 5 0 8 4 29 228 17 6 5 143 4 8 2 39 1 520

231 50 2 118 55 103 571 207 48 34 1,075 32 28 5 233 5 2,797

122 26 1 62 29 54 300 109 25 18 566 17 15 2 122 3 1,472

17 4 0 9 4 8 42 15 3 3 79 2 2 0 17 0 205

UK 60% Bangledesh 100% Mauritania 50% Mauritania 20% Mauritania 20% Mauritania 20% Mauritania 5%

100% 30% 19% 22% 24% 16% 16%

12 7 1 0 4 10 1 35 555 912

11.6 9.8 3.5 5.0 5.0 3.5 3.5

139 67 3 2 20 36 2 269 3,066 5,343

73 35 2 1 10 19 1 142 1,614 2,834

10 5 0 0 1 3 0 20 225 396

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Exhibit 25

Dana Petroleum - NAV Summary: Core Value
Risk Factor (%) Co Interest (%) Rem Reserves (2P, mboe) ($/ bbl) ($m) (£m) (p/share) NPV NPV NPV NPV

Commercial Reserves Anglia Banff Caledonia Claymore GKA Hudson Johnston Otter Victor F-16-E South Vat Yoganskoye Commercial Reserves Contingent Reserves Under development Cavendish Enoch Awaiting development Babbage Barbara Christian Gunn Melville Monkwell 29-2a A15-3 B17a-6 Contingent Reserves

Country UK UK UK UK UK UK UK UK UK Netherlands Russia

25.00% 12.40% 25.78% 7.52% 50.00% 47.50% 49.89% 19.00% 10.00% 1.18% 80.00%

1.8 2.2 0.1 8.8 32.2 10.1 5.9 2.8 1.8 0.7 11.7 78

6.9 4.3 4.9 4.0 11.3 16.7 11.2 18.2 3.5 14.9 4.3 9.9

12 10 0 35 364 169 66 50 6 11 50 773

7 5 0 19 198 92 36 27 3 6 27 420

8 6 0 22 230 107 42 32 4 7 31 488

Country UK UK UK UK UK UK UK UK UK Netherlands Netherlands 50.0% 8.8% 40.0% 66.1% 22.9% 57.8% 26.6% 100.0% 13.5% 9.0% 8.8% 10 1 10 17 2 2 1 3 2 1 2 51 12.5 17.6 7.1 9.9 9.8 7.9 8.1 14.9 8.4 4.8 6.2 10.0 123 21 69 168 15 14 11 51 20 5 12 509 67 12 37 91 8 8 6 28 11 3 6 276 78 13 43 106 10 9 7 32 13 3 7 321

MV of 17.2% interest in Faroes Petroleum (Net debt)/cash end 2006 Overheads Core value
Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates

25 198 (90) 129 1,415

14 110 (50) 770

16 128 (58) 895

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Exhibit 26

Dana Petroleum - NAV Summary - Risked Exploration
Risked Upside Country Risk Factor (%) Co Interest (%) Rem Reserves (2P, mboe) ($/ bbl) NPV Risked NPV ($m) NPV (£m) NPV (p/share)

Exploration (E)

Norway Netherlands Mauritania Egypt UK Total Risked Exploration potential in 2007 Egypt UK Kenya Australia Senegal Mauritania Morocco Total Risked Exploration potential in 2008 Total Risked Exploration Development & Appraisal (D&A) UK var. discoveries Netherlands Pelican Faucon Total Risked Development Risked Upside (E, D, A) Base NAV (Core + Risked upside)
Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates

Norway Netherlands Mauritania Egypt UK

Var. Var. Var. Var. Var.

Var. Var. Var. Var. Var.

9.8 0 1 1 19 31 2 10 0 2 15 6 3 39 70

9.8 0.3 3.2 4.8 10.2 8.8 4.8 10.2 0.0 7.0 3.2 3.2 4.8 5.5 7.0

69 2 4 4 195 274 7 106 0 16 48 20 17 214 487

36 1 2 2 103 144 4 56 0 8 25 10 9 112 257

42 1 2 3 120 168 5 65 0 10 29 12 10 131 298

Egypt UK Kenya Australia Senegal Mauritania Morocco

Var. Var. Var. Var. Var. Var. Var.

Var. Var. Var. Var. Var. Var. Var.

Mauritania Mauritania

4 0 5 1 10 80 210

9.2 5.6 3.2 3.2

39 2 16 3 60 547 1,962

21 1 8 1 31 288 1,058

24 1 10 2 36 335 1,230

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Exhibit 27

Cairn Energy NAV Summary
Cairn Energy Group Interest (%) ($m) (£m) (p/share) NPV NPV NPV

Core Value Capricorn Cairn India IPO proceeds to be distributed to shareholders Remaining IPO Proceeds Cairn Energy - Core value Risked Value Capricorn Cairn India Cairn Energy - Risked upside (E, D & A) Cairn Energy NAV (Core + Risked upside)
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

100% 69%

77 3,639 914 386 5,016

41 1,915 481 203 2,640

25 1,195 300 127 1,647

100% 69%

56 699 755 5,771

30 368 397 3,037

18 229 248 1,895

Exhibit 28

Capricorn NAV Summary
Capricorn Co Interest (%) WI Rem Reserves (2P, mboe) Ent Rem Reserves (2P, mboe) ($/ ent bbl) ($m) (£m) (p/share) NPV NPV NPV NPV

Commercial Reserves Sangu Commercial Reserves (Net debt)/cash end 2006 Overheads Capricorn - Core value Risked Upside

Area/Country Bangladesh

75%

18 18

10 10

11.7 11.7

117 117 (40) 0

62 62 (21) 0 41

38 38 (13) 0 25

18 Risk Co Factor Interest % (%) Bangladesh Bangladesh 13% 13% 75% 75% WI Rem Reserves (2P, mboe) 2 6 9

10 Ent Rem NPV Reserves (2P, mboe) ($/ ent bbl) 1.2 3 4 10.5 10.5

77

NPV ($m) 12 33 45

Risked NPV NPV (£m) (p/share) 6 17 24 4 11 15

Exploration (E) Hatia Magnama Bangladesh Development & Appraisal (D&A) Sangu south Sangu - 10 Total Risked Development Risked Upside (E, D & A) Capricorn NAV (Core + Risked upside)
Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates

Bangladesh Bangladesh

13% 13%

75% 75%

2 1 2 11 28

0.8 0 1 5 15

10.5 10.5

8 3 11 56 133

4 2 6 30 70

3 1 4 18 44

23

MORGAN March 22, 2007 Oil & Gas

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Exhibit 29

Cairn India NAV Summary
Cairn India Co Interest (%) WI Rem Reserves (2P, mboe) Ent Rem Reserves (2P, mboe) ($/ ent bbl) ($m) (Rs m) (Rs /share) NPV NPV NPV NPV

Field Ravva Lakshimi Gauri Mangala, Aishwariya & Bhagyam Saraswati and Raageshwari Reserves (Net debt)/cash end 2006 Overheads Cairn India - Core value Risked Upside

Area/Country East India West India West India Rajasthan, India Rajasthan, India

22.5% 40% 40% 70% 70%

24 2 4 437 31 498

11 2 4 295 20 332

12.3 12.6 10.4 14.6 12.6 14.3

132 5,873 20 912 45 2,026 4,299 191,754 252 11,237 4,749 211,803 525 0 23,415 0

3 1 1 108 6 119 13 0 132

498 Risk Co Factor Interest % (%) India India 20% 13% 70% 10% WI Rem Reserves (2P, mboe) 21 31 52

332 Ent Rem NPV Reserves (2P, mboe) ($/ ent bbl) 14 15 29 11.1 7.0

5,274 235,218

NPV ($m) 154 107 261

Risked NPV NPV (Rs m)(Rs /share) 6,847 4,781 11,627 4 3 7

Exploration (E) Other exploration (Ravva, N-I) KG basin Total Risked Exploration Development & Appraisal (D&A) M, Aishwariya & Bhagyam (EOR) V&V, Kameshwari, Guda & N-R Mangala, Aishwariya & Bhagyam (RF) Total Risked Development Risked Upside (E, D & A) Cairn India NAV (Core + Risked upside)
Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates

Rajasthan, India Rajasthan, India Rajasthan, India

50% 25% 25%

Var. Var. Var.

69 13 8 90 142 641

45 9 5 59 88 420

13.1 11.1 13.1

585 95 71 752 1,013

26,108 4,253 3,169 33,531 45,158

15 2 2 19 25 158

6,286 280,376

24

MORGAN March 22, 2007 Oil & Gas

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Exhibit 30

Burren Energy - Summary NAV
Co Interest (%) Ent Rem Reserves (2P, mboe) ($/ ent bbl) ($m) (£m) (p/share) NPV NPV NPV NPV

Commercial Reserves Burun M'Boundi Commercial Reserves Contingent Reserves Kouakouala Contingent Reserves Investment in HOEC (Net debt)/cash Overheads Core value Risked Upside

Country Turkmenistan Congo

100% 37.0%

47.7 52.5 100.2

13.0 19.5 16.4

620 1,026 1,646

326 540 866

235 389 624

Country Congo

25%

0.5 0.5

17.6 17.6

9 9 31.1 47.0 (150.0)

5 5 17 25 (81) 832

4 4 12 18 (58) 599

101 Country Risk Factor % 17% 17% 13% 13% 13% 13% 17% 17% 10% 10% 10% 5% Co Interest (%) 35% 35% 35% 35% 37% 37% 100% 100% 100% 90% 92% 40% Ent Rem Reserves (2P, mboe) 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.3 2.8 2.3 0.8 5.8 7 26 NPV ($/ ent bbl) 16.2 16.2 16.2 16.2 16.2 16.2 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 8.0 7.2

1,583 Risked NPV ($m) 19 19 14 14 15 15 18 39 32 11 46 50 292

NPV NPV (£m) (p/share) 10 10 7 7 8 8 9 20 17 6 24 27 153 7.2 7.2 5.4 5.4 5.7 5.7 6.6 14.6 11.9 4.3 17.4 19.1 110

Exploration (E) N M'Boundi Loufika NW Tchivouba Zingila Nanga Dongou East Kanayis - Cretaceous prospects East Kanayis - Jurassic prospects North Hughada North Lagia Yemen Block 6 Oman Block 50 Total Risked Exploration Development & Appraisal (D&A) Nebit Dag Burun Gas Export Burun Gas Export assoc condensate Burun (RF to 30% from 22%) Kouilou - 6 shallow wells M'Boundi (RF to 30% from 23%) Total Risked Development Risked Upside (E, D & A) BASE NAV (Core + Risked upside)
Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates

Congo Congo Congo Congo Congo Congo Egypt Egypt Egypt Egypt Yemen Oman

Turkmenistan Turkmenistan Turkmenistan Turkmenistan Congo Congo

17% 17% 17% 25% 17% 25%

100% 100% 100% 621% 35.0% 31.5%

1.3 5.5 1.8 9.3 2.7 3.9 24 50 151

10.8 3.6 10.8 10.8 16.2 16.2

13 20 20 100 43 63 259 551 2,134

7 10 10 53 23 33 137 290 1,122

5.1 7.5 7.5 38.0 16.5 23.7 98 209 808

25

MORGAN March 22, 2007 Oil & Gas

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Soco International Summary Financials 2004-2010e
Exhibit 31

Soco International Summary Financials 2004-2010
MS P&L (adj excep & specs) $'000 Brent price $/bbl $/£average Total Ent production (kboe/d) Total WI production (kboe/d) Revenue Cost of Sales Gross Profit Adminstrative expenses Exploration cost written off Operating profit Investment revenue Other Gains and losses Finance costs Profit before tax Income tax expense Profit for the period - Adjusted Per share data (cents) No. Shares (avg, basic) No. Shares (avg, diluted) Adj EPS - basic (cents) Adj EPS - diluted (cents) ModelWare EPS (cents) Cash flow ($'000) Operating profit Depletion, depreciation & amortisation Working capital Other Cash flow from operations (pre-int/tax) Interest paid/received Income tax paid Cash flow from operations Disposals Shares issued Total sources of funds Capex Acquisitions Dividends Share purchases Other Total uses of funds Cash surplus / (deficit) FX / other Decrease in net debt Balance Sheet (£'000) Net debt Total debt Equity (inc mins) Capital employed Debt/Equity (%) Debt/Debt & Equity (%) Net debt/Equity (%) Net debt/Net debt & Equity (%)
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research; e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

2004 38.19 1.83 2.8 0.0 29,386 (11,347) 18,039 (4,039) (1,946) 12,054 659 113 (95) 12,731 (6,686) 6,045 2004 69,741 78,813 8.67 7.67 7.67 2004 14,210 6,461 (3,134) 7,160 24,697 601 (6,141) 19,157 19,899 660 39,716 (27,583) 0 0 0 0 (27,583) 12,133 96 12,229 2004 (71,122) 0 247,187 176,065 0 0 -29 -40

2005 53.72 1.83 1.7 5.1 57,160 (19,588) 37,572 (5,295) (1,013) 31,264 2,042 853 (497) 33,662 (13,366) 20,296 2005 70,003 79,437 29.02 25.61 25.61 2005 31,264 7,325 3,872 521 42,982 1,483 (13,929) 30,536 27,510 (1,823) 56,223 (76,175) 0 0 0 0 (76,175) (19,952) (203) (20,155) 2005 (50,967) 0 266,239 215,272 0 0 -19 -24

2006 65.18 1.85 3.2 6.7 76,476 (21,162) 55,314 (8,772) (231) 46,311 9,292 690 (8,136) 48,157 (19,094) 29,063 2006E 70,530 78,766 41.32 36.95 36.95 2006E 46,311 9,526 (3,443) 560 52,954 (981) (18,743) 33,230 0 231,594 264,824 (114,339) 0 0 (13,634) 0 (127,973) 136,851 (27) 136,824 2006E 32,442 220,233 295,792 328,234 74 43 11 10

2007E 58.00 1.90 3.5 7.5 77,712 (23,859) 53,853 (8,860) 0 44,994 12,760 0 (9,892) 47,862 (19,145) 28,717 2007E 70,146 78,555 40.94 36.56 36.56 2007E 44,994 9,544 0 0 54,537 2,869 (19,145) 38,261 0 0 38,261 (200,000) 0 0 0 0 (200,000) (161,739) 0 (161,739) 2007E 194,181 220,233 324,509 518,690 68 40 60 37

2008E 48.00 1.90 6.6 16.8 148,729 (55,118) 93,611 (8,948) 0 84,663 3,108 0 (10,515) 77,256 (33,290) 43,966 2008E 70,146 78,555 62.68 55.97 55.97 2008E 84,663 21,124 0 0 105,787 (7,407) (33,290) 65,090 0 94,419 159,509 (170,000) 0 0 0 0 (170,000) (10,491) 0 (10,491) 2008E 299,091 314,652 368,475 667,566 85 46 81 45

2009E 53.00 1.90 19.4 29.0 357,741 (124,494) 233,247 (9,038) 0 224,209 1,196 0 (13,501) 211,904 (95,357) 116,547 2009E 70,146 78,555 166.15 148.36 148.36 2009E 224,209 48,776 0 0 272,985 (12,306) (95,357) 165,323 0 0 165,323 (120,000) 0 0 0 0 (120,000) 45,323 0 45,323 2009E 253,768 273,861 485,022 738,791 56 36 52 34

2010E 53.00 1.90 21.3 30.3 385,827 (134,395) 251,432 (9,128) 0 242,304 1,405 0 (12,281) 231,428 (104,143) 127,285 2010E 70,146 78,555 181.46 162.03 162.03 2010E 242,304 52,981 0 0 295,285 (10,876) (104,143) 180,267 0 0 180,267 (120,000) 0 0 0 0 (120,000) 60,267 0 60,267 2010E 193,501 219,621 612,308 805,809 36 26 32 24

26

MORGAN March 22, 2007 Oil & Gas

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Tullow Oil Summary Financials 2004-2008e
Exhibit 32

Tullow Oil Profit & Loss: 2004-08e
MS P&L (adj excep & specs) £000 2004 2005 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E

Brent price $/bbl UK - (p/therm) $/£average Total Ent production (kboe/d) Total WI production (kboe/d) Revenue Cost of Sales Gross Profit Adminstrative expenses Profit on sale of license interest/ oil & gas assets Exploration cost written off Other expenses Operating profit Finance revenue Finance costs Profit before tax Income tax expense Profit for the period - Adjusted Net (Loss)/Gain on hedging instruments Profit for the period - Reported Per share data (pence) No. Shares (avg, basic) No. Shares (avg, diluted) EPS adjusted - basic (pence) EPS adjusted - diluted (pence) EPS reported - basic (pence) EPS reported - diluted (pence) ModelWare EPS DPS (pence)
e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

38.19 0.00 1.83 38.9 40.6 225,256 (141,228) 84,028 (10,926) 2,292 (17,961) (647) 56,786 3,458 (13,449) 46,795 (15,460) 31,335 0 31,335 2004 532,980 539,023 5.88 5.81 5.88 5.81 5.39 1.75

53.72 36.98 1.83 47.1 58.5 445,232 (243,149) 202,083 (13,793) 36,061 (25,783) 0 198,568 4,367 (24,197) 178,738 (63,751) 114,987 (1,851) 113,136 2005 646,638 659,852 17.78 17.43 17.50 17.15 11.96 4.00

65.18 43.43 1.85 54.0 64.7 593,668 (243,116) 350,552 (15,396) 0 (30,151) 0 305,005 5,961 (17,137) 293,829 (114,968) 178,861 12,522 191,383 2006E 650,215 661,950 27.51 27.02 29.43 28.91 27.02 5.00

58.00 33.50 1.90 69.7 81.6 648,323 (294,559) 353,764 (15,550) 0 (31,500) 0 306,714 4,309 (20,761) 290,262 (110,299) 179,962 0 179,962 2007E 717,005 726,949 25.10 24.76 25.10 24.76 24.76 5.00

48.00 38.20 1.90 70.5 83.0 620,612 (302,617) 317,995 (15,705) 0 (31,500) 0 270,790 (404) (29,026) 241,360 (91,717) 149,643 0 149,643 2008E 717,005 726,949 20.87 20.59 20.87 20.59 20.59 5.00

53.00 38.20 1.90 55.1 69.5 501,093 (235,722) 265,371 (15,862) 0 (31,500) 0 218,008 (2,519) (29,026) 186,463 (70,856) 115,607 0 115,607 2009E 717,005 726,949 16.12 15.90 16.12 15.90 15.90 5.00

53.00 38.20 1.90 44.5 58.6 411,572 (196,709) 214,862 (16,021) 0 (31,500) 0 167,341 (5,526) (29,026) 132,789 (50,460) 82,329 0 82,329 2010E 717,005 726,949 11.48 11.33 11.48 11.33 11.33 5.00

Note: Tullow 2006 financials shown have not been adjusted for the full year 2006 results.

27

MORGAN March 22, 2007 Oil & Gas

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Exhibit 33

Tullow Oil Balance Sheet & Cash Flow: 2004-08e
Cash flow (£000) 2004 2005 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E

Operating profit Depletion, depreciation & amortisation Working capital Other Cash flow from operations (pre-int/tax) Interest paid/received Income tax paid Cash flow from operations Disposals Shares issued Total sources of funds Capex Acquisitions Dividends Share purchases Other Total uses of funds Cash surplus / (deficit) FX / other Decrease in net debt Balance Sheet (£000) Net debt Total debt Equity (inc mins) Capital employed Debt/Equity (%) Debt/Debt & Equity (%) Net debt/Equity (%) Net debt/Net debt & Equity (%)
e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

46,795 81,098 4,243 12,181 144,317 9,991 -14,497 139,811 4,730 120,913 265,454 -95,105 -166,055 -6,995 0 -9,108 -277,263 -11,809 -110 -11,919 2004 63,630 148,700 375,467 439,097 40 28 17 14

178,579 119,697 -35,622 -8,644 254,010 19,830 -25,360 248,480 88,996 1,570 339,046 -368,086 0 -14,555 0 -27,605 -410,246 -71,200 12,638 -58,562 2005 132,986 198,372 389,019 522,005 51 34 34 25

307,851 131,575 11,902 34,812 486,140 11,176 -80,852 416,464 727 1,772 418,963 -342,385 -40,000 -32,744 0 -13,038 -428,167 -9,204 -3,281 -12,485 2006E 166,018 322,183 756,163 922,181 43 30 22 18

290,262 166,353 0 31,500 488,114 16,452 -144,500 360,066 0 0 360,066 -370,000 -270,000 -36,347 0 -16,452 -692,799 -332,733 0 -332,733 2007E 498,751 483,766 899,778 1,398,529 54 35 55 36

241,360 170,743 0 31,500 443,604 29,430 -121,692 351,341 0 0 351,341 -340,000 0 -36,347 0 -29,430 -405,777 -54,436 0 -54,436 2008E 553,187 483,766 1,013,074 1,566,261 48 32 55 35

186,463 132,921 0 31,500 350,884 31,545 -98,704 283,726 0 0 283,726 -300,000 0 -36,347 0 -31,545 -367,893 -84,167 0 -84,167 2009E 637,354 483,766 1,092,334 1,729,687 44 31 58 37

132,789 110,923 0 31,500 275,213 34,552 -73,167 236,598 0 0 236,598 -300,000 0 -36,347 0 -34,552 -370,899 -134,301 0 -134,301 2010E 771,655 483,766 1,138,315 1,909,970 42 30 68 40

28

MORGAN March 22, 2007 Oil & Gas

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RESEARCH

Dana Petroleum Summary Financials 2004-2010e
Exhibit 34

Dana Petroleum Financial Summary: 2004-2010e
P&L £m Brent ($/bbl) UK - (p/therm) $/£average Total Ent production (kboe/d) Revenue Cost of Sales Gross Profit Exploration & Evaluation Administrative Expenses Operating Profit Gain on Sale of Available-for-Sale Investment Provision for Impairment of Associated Company Profit on Ordinary Activities before Int & Tax Interest Income Finance Costs Profit on Ordinary Activities before Tax Taxation Profit for the Financial Year Per share data (pence) No. Shares (avg, diluted) EPS - diluted (pence) EPS - ModelWare DPS (pence) Cash flow (£m) Operating profit Depletion, depreciation & amortisation (+ explor) Working capital Other Cash flow from operations (pre-int/tax) Interest paid/received Income tax paid Cash flow from operations Disposals Shares issued Total sources of funds Capex Acquisitions Dividends Share purchases Total uses of funds Cash surplus / (deficit) FX / other Decrease in net debt Balance Sheet (£m) Net debt Total debt Equity (inc mins) Capital employed Debt/Equity (%) Debt/Debt & Equity (%) Net debt/Equity (%) Net debt/Net debt & Equity (%)
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research; e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

2004 38.19 24.10 1.83 18.6 109,476 (58,294) 51,182 (3,363) 37,754 (2,851) 34,903 778 (3,200) 32,481 (19,805) 12,676 2004 79,503 19.8 19.0 0.00 2004 34,903 29,489 -5,725 3,085 61,752 -1,065 -6,928 53,759 0 587 54,346 -32,782 -44 0 0 -32,826 21,520 -2,625 18,895 2004 -20,497 20,833 157,825 137,328 13 12 -13 -15

2005 53.72 36.98 1.83 19.7 165,625 (71,836) 93,789 13,550 (6,243) 105,723 3,456 109,179 1,642 (3,053) 107,768 (43,613) 64,155 2005 81,235 78.9 78.5 0.00 2005 109,179 12,804 -7,850 -7,081 107,052 537 -22,049 85,540 13,968 36,560 136,068 -63,872 -4,016 0 0 -67,888 68,180 4,489 72,669 2005 -91,827 11,588 270,675 178,848 4 4 -34 -51

2006E 65.27 43.16 1.84 22.3 210,243 (81,408) 128,835 (5,510) (7,375) 109,897 109,897 3,416 (2,543) 110,770 (60,533) 50,237 2006E 86,622 57.4 57.4 0.00 2006E 109,897 38,531 9,713 4,382 162,523 1,954 -24,936 139,541 0 3,068 142,609 -114,649 -4,310 0 0 -118,959 23,650 -6,075 17,575 2006E -110,082 0 321,348 211,265 0 0 -34 -52

2007E 58.00 33.50 1.90 34.0 277,846 (123,205) 154,642 (7,000) (7,000) 140,642 140,642 2,550 143,191 (71,596) 71,596 2007E 87,403 81.3 81.3 0.00 2007E 140,642 59,092 0 0 199,733 2,550 -78,295 123,988 0 0 123,988 -140,000 0 0 0 -140,000 -16,012 0 -16,012 2007E -94,070 0 392,943 298,873 0 0 -24 -31

2008E 48.00 38.20 1.90 45.4 322,151 (164,286) 157,864 (7,000) (7,000) 143,864 143,864 2,356 146,220 (73,110) 73,110 2008E 87,403 83.1 83.1 0.00 2008E 143,864 76,584 0 0 220,448 2,356 -72,519 150,285 0 0 150,285 -140,000 0 0 0 -140,000 10,285 0 10,285 2008E -104,355 0 466,053 361,698 0 0 -22 -29

2009E 53.00 38.20 1.90 48.0 360,322 (173,550) 186,772 (7,000) (7,000) 172,772 172,772 2,859 175,630 (87,815) 87,815 2009E 87,403 99.9 99.9 0.00 2009E 172,772 80,474 0 0 253,246 2,859 -81,133 174,971 0 0 174,971 -80,000 0 0 0 -80,000 94,971 0 94,971 2009E -199,326 0 553,869 354,542 0 0 -36 -56

2010E 53.00 38.20 1.90 37.6 281,143 (135,236) 145,907 (7,000) (7,000) 131,907 131,907 4,792 136,699 (68,350) 68,350 2010E 87,403 77.6 77.6 0.00 2010E 131,907 64,395 0 0 196,302 4,792 -78,219 122,875 0 0 122,875 -80,000 0 0 0 -80,000 42,875 0 42,875 2010E -242,201 0 622,218 380,017 0 0 -39 -64

29

MORGAN March 22, 2007 Oil & Gas

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RESEARCH

Burren Energy Summary Financials 2004-2010e
Exhibit 35

Burren Energy Profit & Loss: 2004-2010e
MS P&L (adj excep & specs) $m 2004 2005 2006 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E

Brent price $/bbl $/£average Oil Ent production (kboe/d) Gas Ent production (mmcf/d) Total Ent production (kboe/d) Total WI production (kboe/d) Revenue Cost of sales Gross profit Administrative expenses Other operating expenses Share of associate's profit Adj. Operating profit Interest and investment income Finance costs Adj. Profit on ordinary activities before interest Tax on profit on ordinary activities Adj. Profit attributable to equity holders of parent co Exceptional gain on sale of oil & gas assets Currency gain/(loss) Profit attributable to equity holders of parent company (Rep) Per share data (cents) No. Shares (avg, basic) No. Shares (avg, diluted) Rep EPS - basic (cents) Rep EPS - diluted (cents) Adj EPS - basic (cents) Adj EPS - diluted (cents) ModelWare EPS DPS (cents) Adj EPS - basic (pence) Adj EPS - diluted (pence) DPS (pence)

38.19 1.83 14.2 0.0 14.2 18.3 185,787 -87,866 97,921 -10,723 -12 0 87,186 678 -1,709 86,155 -17,748 68,407 0 0 68,407 2004 136,635 142,813 50.07 47.90 50.07 47.90 47.91 5.53 27.30 26.12 3.00

55.55 1.83 22.4 0.0 22.4 32.2 390,333 -118,438 271,895 -15,426 -1,411 1,612 256,670 1,998 -4,069 254,599 -33,670 220,929 0 0 220,929 2005 138,916 143,347 158.50 153.09 159.04 154.12 154.12 21.47 87.78 84.78 12.00

65.18 1.85 19.1 0.0 19.1 34.1 416,022 -111,405 304,617 -13,926 -19,863 3,362 274,190 9,722 -1,456 282,456 -33,583 248,873 0 0 248,873 2006E 140,408 144,025 177.29 172.81 177.25 172.81 172.81 26.16 96.54 94.10 14.00

58.00 1.90 23.0 0.0 23.0 38.0 452,124 -115,412 336,711 -15,000 0 1,000 322,711 3,758 0 326,469 -33,000 293,469 0 0 293,469 2007E 140,169 143,969 209.37 203.84 209.37 203.84 203.84 27.13 110.19 107.29 14.28

48.00 1.90 24.2 0.0 24.2 43.4 388,989 -111,777 277,211 -16,000 0 1,000 262,211 3,478 0 265,690 -22,000 243,690 0 0 243,690 2008E 140,169 143,969 173.85 169.27 173.85 169.27 169.27 27.67 91.50 89.09 14.57

53.00 1.90 26.0 0.0 26.0 46.6 464,299 -119,243 345,056 -17,000 0 1,000 329,056 6,910 0 335,966 -24,000 311,966 0 0 311,966 2009E 140,169 143,969 222.56 216.69 222.56 216.69 216.69 28.50 117.14 114.05 15.00

53.00 1.90 29.5 0.0 29.5 53.0 527,368 -138,134 389,234 -18,000 0 1,000 372,234 12,414 0 384,648 -24,000 360,648 0 0 360,648 2010E 140,169 143,969 257.30 250.50 257.30 250.50 250.50 29.36 135.42 131.84 15.45

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research; e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

30

MORGAN March 22, 2007 Oil & Gas

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RESEARCH

Exhibit 36

Burren Energy Balance Sheet & Cash Flow: 2004-2010e
Cash flow ($m) 2004 2005 2006 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E

Operating profit Depletion, depreciation & amortisation Working capital Other Cash flow from operations (pre-int/tax) Interest paid/received Income tax paid Cash flow from operations Disposals Shares issued Total sources of funds Capex Acquisitions Dividends Share purchases Other Total uses of funds Cash surplus / (deficit) FX / other Decrease in net debt Balance Sheet ($m) Net debt Total debt Equity (inc mins) Capital employed Debt/Equity (%) Debt/Debt & Equity (%) Net debt/Equity (%) Net debt/Net debt & Equity (%) ROAE (%) ROACE (%)

87,186 30,183 -23,960 10,579 103,988 -596 -130 103,262 0 1,083 104,345 -88,749 0 0 0 -8,468 -97,217 7,128 2,711 9,839 2004 -38,462 1,500 263,340 224,878 1 1 -15 -17 -

256,670 66,082 -38,600 -4,369 279,783 -388 -1,625 277,770 0 1,492 279,262 -150,842 -26,022 -13,697 0 -3,512 -194,073 85,189 -370 84,819 2005 -121,999 2,782 472,368 350,369 1 1 -26 -35 60 77

274,190 75,849 -2,335 2,847 350,551 8,046 -26,239 332,358 4,461 491 337,310 -213,668 -9,932 -35,689 0 -1,239 -260,528 76,782 607 77,389 2006E -202,170 0 690,201 488,031 0 0 -29 -41 46 62

322,711 74,843 -36,622 3,000 363,932 3,758 -33,000 334,690 0 2,000 336,690 -405,000 0 -37,498 0 0 -442,498 -105,808 0 -105,808 2007E -96,362 0 948,172 851,810 0 0 -10 -11 36 43

262,211 73,579 -17,112 3,000 321,678 3,478 -22,000 303,156 0 2,000 305,156 -170,000 0 -38,248 0 0 -208,248 96,908 0 96,908 2008E -193,270 0 1,155,614 962,344 0 0 -17 -20 23 26

329,056 78,559 -17,316 3,000 393,298 6,910 -24,000 376,208 0 2,000 378,208 -170,000 0 -39,124 0 0 -209,124 169,085 0 169,085 2009E -362,355 0 1,430,456 1,068,101 0 0 -25 -34 24 30

372,234 90,593 -17,880 3,000 447,947 12,414 -24,000 436,361 0 2,000 438,361 -170,000 0 -40,297 0 0 -210,297 228,064 0 228,064 2010E -590,419 0 1,752,807 1,162,388 0 0 -34 -51 23 31

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research; e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

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Cairn Energy Summary Financials 2004-2010e
Exhibit 37

Cairn Energy Financial Summary: 2004-2010e
MS P&L ($m, adj excep & specs) Brent ($/bbl) $/£average Total production (kboe/d) Revenue Production costs Unsuccessful exploration costs Depletion & decommissioning charge Gross profit Administrative expenses Adj Operating profit/(loss) Net interest Profit/(loss) before taxation Taxation on profit/(loss) Adj Profit/(loss) for the period attributable to equity holders Exceptional gain on sale of oil & gas assets Currency gain/(loss) Profit for the year attributable to equity holders (Reported) Per share data (cents) No. Shares (avg, basic) No. Shares (avg, diluted) Rep EPS - basic (cents) Rep EPS - diluted (cents) Adj EPS - basic (cents) Adj EPS - diluted (cents) DPS (pence) Adj EPS - basic (pence) Adj EPS - diluted (pence) DPS (USD) 2004 38.19 1.83 22.8 173 -51 -36 -72 14 -27 -13 -2 -15 15 -0 0 -16 -16 2004 152.5 153.7 (10.3) (10.2) (0.0) (0.0) 0.0 (0.0) (0.0) 0.0 2005 54.45 1.83 28.3 263 -50 -27 -92 94 -38 56 3 59 -18 41 11 27 79 2005 157.0 157.8 50.4 50.1 26.3 26.2 0.0 14.3 14.3 0.0 2006E 65.26 1.84 25.9 286 -59 -55 -123 49 -55 -7 -7 -14 -13 -26 -4 -18 -48 2006E 157.4 157.8 (30.8) (30.7) (16.8) (16.7) 0.0 (8.8) (32.1) 0.0 2007E 53.00 1.90 25.1 219 -53 -23 -62 81 -45 36 -8 27 -10 18 0 0 18 2007E 151.4 152.1 11.7 11.6 11.7 11.6 0.0 6.2 22.1 0.0 2008E 48.00 1.90 25.0 205 -53 -14 -62 76 -47 29 -26 2 -1 1 0 0 1 2008E 142.6 143.4 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.5 1.9 0.0 2009E 53.00 1.90 62.2 827 -128 -34 -167 498 -50 449 -44 404 -142 263 0 0 263 2009E 131.6 132.5 198.1 196.9 198.1 196.9 0.0 104.3 374.0 0.0 2010E 53.00 1.90 105.7 1,618 -215 -58 -291 1,054 -52 1,002 -38 964 -337 626 0 0 626 2010E 113.4 114.3 553.0 548.8 553.0 548.8 0.0 291.1 1,042.8 0.0

Cash flow ($m) Operating profit Depletion, depreciation & amortisation Unsuccessful exploration costs Working capital Other Cash flow from operations (pre-int/tax) Interest paid/received Income tax paid Cash flow from operations Disposals Shares issued Total sources of funds Capex Acquisitions Dividends Share purchases Other Total uses of funds Cash surplus / (deficit) FX / other Decrease in net debt Balance Sheet ($m) Net debt Equity (inc mins) Capital employed ROAE (%) ROACE (%) Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research; e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

2004 -13 75 36 5 34 138 1 -9 131 13 193 337 -174 -43 0 -17 -15 -247 89 2 91 2004 -138 711 573

2005 71 97 27 -5 -49 140 3 -7 136 128 4 268 -291 0 0 -17 -6 -314 -46 -1 -47 2005 -96 758 662 5.6 6.3

2006E -12 128 55 -2 7 175 -5 -3 168 0 2 170 -275 0 0 -22 20 -277 -107 -1 -108 2006E 43 730 773 -3.6 -3.0

2007E 36 65 23 0 0 124 -4 -2 118 0 0 118 -490 0 0 -18 0 -508 -390 0 -390 2007E 438 730 1,168 2.4 2.4

2008E 29 65 14 0 0 108 -10 -0 98 0 0 98 -560 0 0 -18 0 -578 -480 0 -480 2008E 935 713 1,648 0.2 1.4

2009E 449 170 34 0 0 652 -15 -35 602 0 0 602 -500 0 0 -18 0 -518 84 0 84 2009E 880 958 1,838 31.5 16.9

2010E 1,002 294 58 0 0 1,354 -13 -84 1,256 0 0 1,256 -440 0 0 -18 0 -458 798 0 798 2010E 107 1,567 1,674 49.6 37.2

Note: Forecasts for 2007-2010e include 100% of Cairn India. Guidance on accounting for minority interest likely to be provided at the full year results on March 26 2007.

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Price Target Methodology
Exhibit 38

Summary of UK E&P Ratings and Price Targets
Company Current price (p) Rating Price target (p) Implied Potential Upside (%)

Soco International Tullow Oil Dana Petroleum Cairn Energy Burren Energy

1411 369 1,029 1,546 730

Overweight -V Overweight -V Overweight -V Equal-weight -V Equal-weight -V

1,800 460 1,300 1,750 810

28 25 26 13 11

Risks to price targets Oil and gas, and particularly exploration, is a high-risk business. Putting this together with uncertainty over short-term commodity prices, we assign a volatility flag to our ratings for the UK E&P stocks. The following are key drivers for the sector that may lead the shares to under or outperform our assumptions: Downside: 1) Sharp fall in commodity prices; 2) disappointing exploration or appraisal;. 3) increases to capex/delays to development projects; 4) increased political and fiscal risks. Upside: 1) Continued increased in short-term and longer-term assumptions of commodity prices; 2) better than assumed exploration success; 3) increased M&A activity in the industry. Specific risks for TLW: On the downside: 1) disappointing drilling results from the UK, Uganda or India; 2) a significant delay in the gas sales agreement for phase 1 Kudu and unsuccessful appraisal for phase 2; 3) operational problems at existing fields; 4) weakness in the UK gas price. On the upside, we see risks from materially better success from the drill bit. Specific risks for Dana: On the downside: 1) disappointing drilling results from UK, Mauritania and Egypt; 2) operational problems on existing fields in the UK portfolio; 3) weakness in the UK gas price. On the upside, we see risks from materially better success from the drill bit. Specific risks for Burren: On the downside: 1) operational difficulties at existing core assets (Burun and M’Boundi); 2) political instability in Turkmenistan. On the upside we see risks from: 1) materially better exploration success from drilling in the Congo; 2) better than anticipated appraisal from water injection at M’Boundi; 3) an earlier than expected sales agreement for Turkmenistan. Specific risk for Cairn: On the downside: 1) delays in the timetable for development of existing assets in Rajasthan; 2) disappointing appraisal upside from Rajasthan. On the upside, we see risks from materially better success from the drill bit in the KG basin. Specific risks for Soco: On the downside, disappointing drilling results from Vietnam, Yemen and Congo. On the upside, we see risks from materially better success from the drill bit.

Source: Morgan Stanley Research

Our price targets for the UK E&Ps are derived from a combination of our net asset valuation (based on our long-term oil price assumption of US$53/bbl Brent and 38.2p/therm for UK gas prices) and more subjective factors. Our base net asset valuation is essentially the discounted cash flows on a field-by-field basis and our best estimate of risk upside. At any given oil price, we expect E&P shares to trade somewhere between a core valuation and a bull case scenario. The premium (or discount) to the core value is mostly determined by: 1) by short-term oil prices and the perception of longer-term oil prices and 2) levels of M&A activity in the industry. Within this framework, individual companies are likely to trade at different premium/discounts depending on specific stock characteristics. These are as follows: • the potential for upgrades to existing reserves (commercial and technical); the potential for appraisal upside from additional discoveries for which actual volumes are yet to be determined; exploration activity; and news flow intensity around the shares.

• •
Exhibit 39

UK gas price and Brent oil price assumptions
2006 2007e 2008e 2009e 2010e

UK Gas price (p/therm) Brent ($/bbl)

43.2 65.3

33.5 58.0

38.2 48.0

38.2 53.0

38.2 53.0

Source: Datastream, Morgan Stanley Research; e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

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Disclosure Section
Morgan Stanley & Co. International Limited, authorised and regulated by Financial Services Authority, disseminates in the UK research that it has prepared, and approves solely for the purposes of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000, research which has been prepared by any of its affiliates.

Analyst Certification
The following analysts hereby certify that their views about the companies and their securities discussed in this report are accurately expressed and that they have not received and will not receive direct or indirect compensation in exchange for expressing specific recommendations or views in this report: Michael Alsford. Unless otherwise stated, the individuals listed on the cover page of this report are research analysts.

Global Research Conflict Management Policy
This research has been published in accordance with our conflict management policy, which is available at www.morganstanley.com/institutional/research/conflictpolicies.

Important US Regulatory Disclosures on Subject Companies
The following analyst, strategist, or research associate (or a household member) owns securities in a company that he or she covers or recommends in this report: Theepan Jothilingam - BG Group (common stock). Morgan Stanley policy prohibits research analysts, strategists and research associates from investing in securities in their sub industry as defined by the Global Industry Classification Standard ("GICS," which was developed by and is the exclusive property of MSCI and S&P). Analysts may nevertheless own such securities to the extent acquired under a prior policy or in a merger, fund distribution or other involuntary acquisition. As of February 28, 2007, Morgan Stanley beneficially owned 1% or more of a class of common equity securities of the following companies covered in this report: BP plc, Burren Energy, Cairn Energy, Dana Petroleum, Eni SpA, ERG, Hellenic Petroleum, Neste Oil, Petroplus, Repsol-YPF, Royal Dutch Shell, TOTAL. As of March 1, 2007, Morgan Stanley held a net long or short position of US$1 million or more of the debt securities of the following issuers covered in this report (including where guarantor of the securities): Eni SpA, Mol, Norsk Hydro AS, Repsol-YPF, Royal Dutch Shell, Statoil, TOTAL. Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley managed or co-managed a public offering of securities of Cairn Energy, Galp Energia, Petroplus, Saras. Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley has received compensation for investment banking services from BG Group, BP plc, Mol, OMV AG, Repsol-YPF, Saras, Statoil. In the next 3 months, Morgan Stanley expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from BG Group, BP plc, Cairn Energy, ERG, Galp Energia, Hellenic Petroleum, Mol, Neste Oil, Norsk Hydro AS, OMV AG, PKN Orlen, Repsol-YPF, Saras, Statoil, TOTAL, Tullow Oil. Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated has received compensation for products and services other than investment banking services from BG Group, BP plc, Eni SpA, ERG, Hellenic Petroleum, Mol, Motor Oil, Neste Oil, Norsk Hydro AS, OMV AG, Repsol-YPF, Royal Dutch Shell, Saras, Statoil, TOTAL, Tullow Oil. Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley has provided or is providing investment banking services to, or has an investment banking client relationship with, the following companies covered in this report: BG Group, BP plc, Cairn Energy, ERG, Galp Energia, Hellenic Petroleum, Mol, Neste Oil, Norsk Hydro AS, OMV AG, PKN Orlen, Repsol-YPF, Saras, Statoil, TOTAL, Tullow Oil. Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley has either provided or is providing non-investment banking, securities-related services to and/or in the past has entered into an agreement to provide services or has a client relationship with the following companies covered in this report: BG Group, BP plc, Eni SpA, ERG, Hellenic Petroleum, Mol, Motor Oil, Neste Oil, Norsk Hydro AS, OMV AG, Repsol-YPF, Royal Dutch Shell, Saras, Statoil, TOTAL, Tullow Oil. Within the last 12 months, an affiliate of Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated has received compensation for products and services other than investment banking services from Petroplus. The research analysts, strategists, or research associates principally responsible for the preparation of this research report have received compensation based upon various factors, including quality of research, investor client feedback, stock picking, competitive factors, firm revenues and overall investment banking revenues. Morgan Stanley & Co. International Ltd. is a corporate broker to BG Group. Certain disclosures listed above are also for compliance with applicable regulations in non-US jurisdictions.

STOCK RATINGS
Different securities firms use a variety of rating terms as well as different rating systems to describe their recommendations. For example, Morgan Stanley uses a relative rating system including terms such as Overweight, Equal-weight or Underweight (see definitions below). A rating system using terms such as buy, hold and sell is not equivalent to our rating system. Investors should carefully read the definitions of all ratings used in each research report. In addition, since the research report contains more complete information concerning the analyst's views, investors should carefully

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read the entire research report and not infer its contents from the rating alone. In any case, ratings (or research) should not be used or relied upon as investment advice. An investor's decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual circumstances (such as the investor's existing holdings) and other considerations.

Global Stock Ratings Distribution
(as of February 28, 2007)

For disclosure purposes only (in accordance with NASD and NYSE requirements), we include the category headings of Buy, Hold, and Sell alongside our ratings of Overweight, Equal-weight and Underweight. Morgan Stanley does not assign ratings of Buy, Hold or Sell to the stocks we cover. Overweight, Equal-weight, and Underweight are not the equivalent of buy, hold, and sell but represent recommended relative weightings (see definitions below). To satisfy regulatory requirements, we correspond Overweight, our most positive stock rating, with a buy recommendation; we correspond Equal-weight and Underweight to hold and sell recommendations, respectively.
Coverage Universe Stock Rating Category Investment Banking Clients (IBC) % of Total % of Rating IBC Category Count % of Total Count

Overweight/Buy Equal-weight/Hold Underweight/Sell Total

834 1003 370 2,207

38% 45% 17%

288 308 91 687

42% 45% 13%

35% 31% 25%

Data include common stock and ADRs currently assigned ratings. An investor's decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual circumstances (such as the investor's existing holdings) and other considerations. Investment Banking Clients are companies from whom Morgan Stanley or an affiliate received investment banking compensation in the last 12 months.

Analyst Stock Ratings
Overweight (O). The stock's total return is expected to exceed the average total return of the analyst's industry (or industry team's) coverage universe, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12-18 months. Equal-weight (E). The stock's total return is expected to be in line with the average total return of the analyst's industry (or industry team's) coverage universe, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12-18 months. Underweight (U). The stock's total return is expected to be below the average total return of the analyst's industry (or industry team's) coverage universe, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12-18 months. More volatile (V). We estimate that this stock has more than a 25% chance of a price move (up or down) of more than 25% in a month, based on a quantitative assessment of historical data, or in the analyst's view, it is likely to become materially more volatile over the next 1-12 months compared with the past three years. Stocks with less than one year of trading history are automatically rated as more volatile (unless otherwise noted). We note that securities that we do not currently consider "more volatile" can still perform in that manner. Unless otherwise specified, the time frame for price targets included in this report is 12 to 18 months.

Analyst Industry Views
Attractive (A): The analyst expects the performance of his or her industry coverage universe over the next 12-18 months to be attractive vs. the relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below. In-Line (I): The analyst expects the performance of his or her industry coverage universe over the next 12-18 months to be in line with the relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below. Cautious (C): The analyst views the performance of his or her industry coverage universe over the next 12-18 months with caution vs. the relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below. Benchmarks for each region are as follows: North America - S&P 500; Latin America - relevant MSCI country index or MSCI Latin America Index; Europe - MSCI Europe; Japan - TOPIX; Asia - relevant MSCI country index. Stock price charts and rating histories for companies discussed in this report are available at www.morganstanley.com/companycharts or from your local investment representative. You may also request this information by writing to Morgan Stanley at 1585 Broadway, (Attention: Equity Research Management), New York, NY, 10036 USA.

Other Important Disclosures
For a discussion, if applicable, of the valuation methods used to determine the price targets included in this summary and the risks related to achieving these targets, please refer to the latest relevant published research on these stocks. Research is available through your sales representative or on Client Link at www.morganstanley.com and other electronic systems.

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Industry Coverage:Oil & Gas
Company (Ticker) Joseph Mares, CFA ERG (ERG.MI) Galp Energia (GALP.LS) Hellenic Petroleum (HEPr.AT) Mol (MOLB.BU) Motor Oil (MORr.AT) Neste Oil (NES1V.HE) OMV AG (OMVV.VI) Petroplus (PPHN.S) PKN Orlen (PKNA.WA) Saras (SRS.MI) Michael J Alsford Tullow Oil (TLW.L) Socco International (SIA.L) Neil W Perry BG Group (BG.L) BP plc (BP.L) Royal Dutch Shell (RDSa.L) Royal Dutch Shell (RDSb.L) TOTAL (TOTF.PA) Theepan Jothilingam, CFA Burren Energy (BUR.L) Cairn Energy (CNE.L) Dana Petroleum (DNX.L) Eni SpA (ENI.MI) Norsk Hydro AS (NHY.OL) Repsol-YPF (REP.MC) Statoil (STL.OL) Rating (as of) Price (03/21/2007)

E (06/28/2006) O-V (02/23/2007) U (09/21/2006) E (10/23/2006) E (09/21/2006) E (10/23/2006) E (08/18/2006) O-V (01/15/2007) E (10/23/2006) E-V (06/28/2006) O-V (01/15/2007) O-V (03/22/2007) O (09/13/2006) E (09/21/2006) NA () U (09/21/2006) O (03/15/2007) E-V (04/25/2006) O-V (04/25/2006) O-V (08/07/2006) E (03/05/2007) ++ U (03/21/2007) ++

€18.53 €7.38 €10.60 HUF 19,880.00 €20.30 €25.57 €42.24 SFr 83.35 PLN 43.55 €4.17 369.00p 1411p 696.00p 517.00p 1,636.00p 1,620.00p €49.88 760.00p 1,557.00p 1,029.00p €23.19 NKr 193.50 €23.92 NKr 157.00

Stock Ratings are subject to change. Please see latest research for each company.

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