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G ARIN H ART Y ANG

RESEARCH GROUP
MEMORANDUM
TO: FROM: DATE: RE: Interested Parties Frederick Yang September 12, 2013

1724 Connecticut Avenue, N.W. Washington, DC 20009 Tel: (202) 234 -5570 Fax: (202) 232 -8134 www.hartresearch.com

Results Of Late-August Survey Among Pennsylvania Democratic Primary Voters

From August 27 to 29, 2013, Garin-Hart-Yang conducted a survey among a representative statewide sample of 506 likely Democratic primary voters (margin of error ±4.4 percentage points). The Democratic primary for governor is still very much up for grabs, as other public and private polls show, with a large proportion of undecided voters. While Allyson Schwartz leads in the trial heat because of name recognition, our polling makes clear that, with the dominant issue among primary voters being the poor state of Pennsylvania’s economy, a candidate with Katie McGinty’s unique background of being a job creator AND an environmental leader will have strong appeal. And in fact, looking to the campaign ahead, our polling is VERY encouraging about Katie McGinty being the exact right fit for Democratic primary voters once she becomes better known. Her profile scores HIGHEST among all candidates, and she demonstrates the ability to appeal to a wide swath of the Democratic primary electorate. If the McGinty campaign has the financial resources and support to present their candidate’s exceptional background and record, our polling shows that she has the very real potential to mount a competitive campaign and to emerge victorious. Moving behind the trial heat numbers, which largely measure the candidates’ current name recognition (the one variable that definitely will change over the course of the campaign), our polling yields four very important findings for the McGinty campaign: (A) Despite never having run for office before, Katie McGinty’s working-class background, her record as a job-creating environmentalist, and her focus on improving the lives of middle-class families makes her an extremely viable candidate to win the Democratic primary. (B) Eighty-seven percent (87%) of Democratic primary voters find McGinty’s unique background (environmentalist AND job creator) to be extremely appealing. By comparison, only 46% find appeal in the profile of Congresswoman Allyson Schwartz (who has more than 20 years in elected office, including the past decade in Congress).
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G ARIN H ART Y ANG RESEARCH GROUP
(C) The Democratic primary becomes a two-person race between McGinty and Schwartz after voters are read POSITIVE descriptions of all the candidates. What is particularly surprising is how much better McGinty does compared with State Treasurer Rob McCord and former State Revenue Secretary Tom Wolf. (D) The race is a dead heat outside the Philadelphia media market, with McGinty demonstrating across-the-board appeal, including with key primary constituencies such as seniors and non-college-educated, bluecollar voters. The following presents the key data from our survey. A solid majority of voters are still undecided. Our poll shows that Schwartz has 51% name recognition, followed by McCord (32%), Wolf (27%), and McGinty (20%), which mirrors that of other surveys. With her current name ID advantage, it is no surprise that Schwartz has the early advantage in the trial heat:
Quinnipiac (June 2013) % Benenson Poll (July 2013) % GHY Poll (August 2013) %

Schwartz McGinty McCord Wolf Undecided

18 5 4 2 63

34 15 10 11 30

25 6 6 6 57

But here are several important dynamics: First, a significant proportion of primary voters is still up for grabs, with the Quinnipiac University poll and our survey showing that the MAJORITY of the electorate are undecided. Second, while Congresswoman Schwartz’s initial advantage is buoyed by her name recognition in the Philadelphia media market, the race outside the Philly market is a near dead-heat among the four candidates, with fully 69% undecided. And, as the informed ballot test will show later in this memo, Katie McGinty makes the most movement of any of the candidates to lead in the region outside the Philadelphia market. Third, our poll shows that while Schwartz has the initial advantage because of her name recognition, she has not yet locked down that advantage; for example, among respondents who RECOGNIZE her name, she garners only 43% support, with 42% who are undecided.

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G ARIN H ART Y ANG RESEARCH GROUP
“Creating jobs” is the most important priority to Pennsylvania’s Democratic primary voters, and we find that Katie McGinty’s background—which is unique among ANY of the possible candidates for governor—is extremely appealing to them. We asked voters their reaction to the following “candidate types”:

Very favorable

Somewhat favorable

Neutral

Experience creating jobs while protecting environment 57%

30%

11%

High-level experience both in government/business 40% 33% 23%

More than 20 years’ experience in elected office/including Congress 22% 24% 33%

It is notable that the McGinty-type candidate (“creating jobs while protecting the environment”) gets nearly double the positive reaction of the Schwartztype candidate; and in fact, it scores extremely well among important subgroups. For example, the McGinty-type candidate scores 70% VERY favorable among Schwartz voters (compared with 30% VERY favorable toward the Schwartz-type candidate), and also receives strong ratings from Philadelphia media market voters (66% very favorable), college-educated women (59% very favorable), and liberals (59% very favorable). Perhaps the best indication of Katie McGinty’s potential strength occurs after we present voters with positive background information about the candidates, in which McGinty’s profile scores the HIGHEST and she makes the most movement of any candidate in the informed trial heat. The following presents a summary of the profiles we read:
KATIE MCGINTY grew up the ninth of 10 children to a police officer and a restaurant hostess. She … served in the White House with President Clinton and Vice President Gore, where she led on environmental issues. She was the first woman to head the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection, where she attracted clean energy companies and a billion dollars in new investment, and helped create 3,000 jobs. As an executive, McGinty helped businesses invest and build clean energy and clean water projects… ALLYSON SCHWARTZ … is the daughter of a Holocaust survivor who knows the importance of public servants doing what's right for people. Her career began as an advocate for women's health care, and then she held elected office representing Montgomery County, where she voted for tax breaks,

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G ARIN H ART Y ANG RESEARCH GROUP
helped strengthen investments in education, and voted to bring universal health care to our nation. She helped pass the law that established Pennsylvania's Children's Health Insurance Program, and later helped guide Obamacare through Congress… ROB MCCORD is state treasurer and has business experience in the world of finance and private equity. Raised by a single mother, McCord graduated from Harvard and then managed more than one billion dollars in assets and raised money for young companies that helped create Pennsylvania jobs. As state treasurer since 2008, he has used his energy and experience to streamline operations, cut costs, and find hundreds of millions in wasteful spending. He improved returns in Pennsylvania's investment funds, pension funds, and 529 college savings program… TOM WOLF … an MIT grad and Peace Corps volunteer, spent 25 years as CEO of a successful family business, then served as head of the Department of Revenue for Governor Rendell. He returned to his company when he learned it was on the brink of bankruptcy, and changed the business model so that it could compete with companies in China while also investing in his workers with comprehensive health insurance benefits and profit sharing…

After hearing the candidate descriptions, we asked voters to rate the appeal of each candidate’s description. Katie McGinty’s profile scores the highest:

Appeals a great deal

Appeals a fair amount

79% 73% 61% 60%

50%

47% 24% 22%

Katie McGinty

Allyson Schwartz

Tom Wolf

Rob McCord

Not only does McGinty’s profile come out ahead, but she demonstrates the ability to appeal to a wide swath of the Democratic primary electorate, garnering 56% “great deal of appeal” in the Philadelphia media market (including 58% with women in Philly), 54% “great deal of appeal” among voters age 65+ (by far the highest rating of the four candidates), and 61% “great deal of appeal” with liberals (just three points below Schwartz’s description).
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G ARIN H ART Y ANG RESEARCH GROUP
The potential appeal of Katie McGinty’s candidacy is further evidenced by the informed ballot test, in which she makes the most movement of any of the candidates and surges into second place:
Initial Trial Heat % Informed Trial Heat % Gain ±

Schwartz McGinty McCord Wolf Undecided

25 6 6 6 37

36 25 9 10 20

+11 +19 +3 +4

McGinty leads outside the Philadelphia market (30% McGinty, 25% Schwartz, 13% McCord, and 10% Wolf). While Schwartz still leads in the Philadelphia media market, McGinty is a clear second place there. And while Schwartz has an advantage among college-educated voters, McGinty’s profile enables her to lead among non-college-educated voters.

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