UTS STATISTIK

PROGRAM PASCA SARJANA
PENGAJAR : TOTO WARSA, Ir., M.S.

PENYUSUN:
Nama
: Ade Setiawan
NPM
: 150220060003

PERTANYAAN DAN JAWABAN

Pertanyaan:
a. Hitung nilai β0 dan β1 untuk model regresi Y = β0 + β1X + ε dan tentukanlah persamaan
garis regresinya!
b. Lakukan Uji statitik, Analisis Varians dan termasuk Simpangan Model dan Galat Murninya!
c. Kerjakan point a dan b untuk data yang sudah di tranformasi logaritma

1

Jawab:
1. Analisis data sebelum ditransformasikan:
No
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47

X
20.0
20.0
20.5
20.5
20.5
20.5
21.0
21.0
21.5
21.5
21.5
21.5
21.5
21.5
21.5
21.5
21.5
21.5
21.5
21.5
21.5
22.0
22.0
22.0
22.0
22.0
22.0
22.0
22.0
22.0
22.0
22.0
22.0
22.0
22.0
22.0
22.0
22.0
22.0
22.0
22.0
22.5
22.5
22.5
22.5
22.5
22.5

Y
90
105
90
90
100
110
100
105
100
105
110
110
110
110
110
110
115
115
115
115
120
110
110
115
115
115
115
120
120
120
120
120
120
120
120
120
125
125
125
130
130
115
115
115
120
120
120

X2
400.00
400.00
420.25
420.25
420.25
420.25
441.00
441.00
462.25
462.25
462.25
462.25
462.25
462.25
462.25
462.25
462.25
462.25
462.25
462.25
462.25
484.00
484.00
484.00
484.00
484.00
484.00
484.00
484.00
484.00
484.00
484.00
484.00
484.00
484.00
484.00
484.00
484.00
484.00
484.00
484.00
506.25
506.25
506.25
506.25
506.25
506.25

Y2
8100
11025
8100
8100
10000
12100
10000
11025
10000
11025
12100
12100
12100
12100
12100
12100
13225
13225
13225
13225
14400
12100
12100
13225
13225
13225
13225
14400
14400
14400
14400
14400
14400
14400
14400
14400
15625
15625
15625
16900
16900
13225
13225
13225
14400
14400
14400

XY
1800.0
2100.0
1845.0
1845.0
2050.0
2255.0
2100.0
2205.0
2150.0
2257.5
2365.0
2365.0
2365.0
2365.0
2365.0
2365.0
2472.5
2472.5
2472.5
2472.5
2580.0
2420.0
2420.0
2530.0
2530.0
2530.0
2530.0
2640.0
2640.0
2640.0
2640.0
2640.0
2640.0
2640.0
2640.0
2640.0
2750.0
2750.0
2750.0
2860.0
2860.0
2587.5
2587.5
2587.5
2700.0
2700.0
2700.0

Ulangan

JKGM

2

112.50000

4

275.00000

2

12.50000

13

307.69231

20

573.75000

2

No
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
Jumlah
Rataan

X
22.5
22.5
22.5
22.5
22.5
22.5
22.5
22.5
22.5
22.5
22.5
22.5
22.5
22.5
22.5
22.5
22.5
23.0
23.0
23.0
23.0
23.0
23.0
23.0
23.0
23.0
23.5
23.5
23.5
23.5
24.0
24.0
25.0
1775
22.1875

X
Y
ΣX i
ΣYi

Y
120
120
120
125
125
125
125
125
130
130
130
130
135
135
135
140
150
125
130
140
140
140
140
145
145
145
145
150
155
170
165
170
170
9910
123.875

= 22.1875
= 123.8750
= 1775
= 9910

X2
506.25
506.25
506.25
506.25
506.25
506.25
506.25
506.25
506.25
506.25
506.25
506.25
506.25
506.25
506.25
506.25
506.25
529.00
529.00
529.00
529.00
529.00
529.00
529.00
529.00
529.00
552.25
552.25
552.25
552.25
576.00
576.00
625.00
39443

Y2
14400
14400
14400
15625
15625
15625
15625
15625
16900
16900
16900
16900
18225
18225
18225
19600
22500
15625
16900
19600
19600
19600
19600
21025
21025
21025
21025
22500
24025
28900
27225
28900
28900
1250800

ΣX i
2
ΣYi
ΣX i Y
JKGM
2

XY
2700.0
2700.0
2700.0
2812.5
2812.5
2812.5
2812.5
2812.5
2925.0
2925.0
2925.0
2925.0
3037.5
3037.5
3037.5
3150.0
3375.0
2875.0
2990.0
3220.0
3220.0
3220.0
3220.0
3335.0
3335.0
3335.0
3407.5
3525.0
3642.5
3995.0
3960.0
4080.0
4250.0
220930

Ulangan

JKGM

23

1660.86957

9

388.88889

4

350.00000

2

12.50000
3693.7008

= 39443
= 1250800
= 220930
= 3693.7008

3

a. Jika model regresinya Y = β0 + β1X + ε, tentukanlah persamaan garis regresinya!
ΣX i ΣYi
β 0 = Y − β1 X
ΣX i Yi −
= 123.8750 − 17.47664(22.1875)
n
β1 =
= -263.8879
2
(ΣX i )
2
ΣX i −
n
(1775)(9910)
220930 −
80
=
(1775) 2
39443 −
80
= 17.47664

Sehingga persamaan regresinya:
Y = -263.88785 + 17.47664 X
Koefisien Korelasi:

ΣX i ΣYi
n
ryx =
2

(ΣX i ) ⎞⎛ 2 (ΣYi ) 2 ⎞

⎟⎜ ΣYi −
⎜⎜ ΣX i 2 −
n ⎟⎠⎜⎝
n ⎟⎠

(1775)(9910)
220930 −
80
=
2

(1775) ⎞⎛
(9910) 2
⎜⎜ 39443 −
⎟⎟⎜⎜1250800 −
80 ⎠⎝
80

= 0.890182

Koefisien Determinasi:
2
R 2 = ryx
= (0.890182) 2
= 0.792424

ΣX i Yi −


⎟⎟

4

b. Uji Statistik (Analisis Varians termasuk Simpangan Model dan Galat Murni)
(ΣΣi ) 2 ( 9910 ) 2
=
FK =
80
n
= 1227601.25

JKT = ΣYi − FK
= 1250800-1227601.25
= 23198.75
2

ΣX i ΣYi ⎤

JK Re gresi = β1 ⎢ ΣX i Yi −
n ⎥⎦

( 1775 )( 9910 ) ⎤

= 17.47664⎢220930⎥⎦
80

= 18383.235981
JK Re sidu = JKT-JK Re g
= 23198.75 − 18383.24
= 4815.51
JKGM = 3693.700762
JKSM = JK Re sidu-JKGM
= 4815.51 - 3693.700762
= 1121.813257
Tabel Analisis Varians Regresi:
Sumber Ragam
Regresi
Residu
SM
GM
Total

DB
JK
RJK
1 18383.235981 18383.24
78 4815.514019 61.73736
8 1121.813257 140.2267
70 3693.700762 52.76715
79 23198.750000

F-hit
297.77

F.05
3.96

F.01
6.97

2.66*

2.07

2.78

5

2. Analisis data setelah ditransformasikan:
No
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49

X
1.30
1.30
1.31
1.31
1.31
1.31
1.32
1.32
1.33
1.33
1.33
1.33
1.33
1.33
1.33
1.33
1.33
1.33
1.33
1.33
1.33
1.34
1.34
1.34
1.34
1.34
1.34
1.34
1.34
1.34
1.34
1.34
1.34
1.34
1.34
1.34
1.34
1.34
1.34
1.34
1.34
1.35
1.35
1.35
1.35
1.35
1.35
1.35
1.35

Y
1.95
2.02
1.95
1.95
2.00
2.04
2.00
2.02
2.00
2.02
2.04
2.04
2.04
2.04
2.04
2.04
2.06
2.06
2.06
2.06
2.08
2.04
2.04
2.06
2.06
2.06
2.06
2.08
2.08
2.08
2.08
2.08
2.08
2.08
2.08
2.08
2.10
2.10
2.10
2.11
2.11
2.06
2.06
2.06
2.08
2.08
2.08
2.08
2.08

X2
1.69
1.69
1.72
1.72
1.72
1.72
1.74
1.74
1.77
1.77
1.77
1.77
1.77
1.77
1.77
1.77
1.77
1.77
1.77
1.77
1.77
1.80
1.80
1.80
1.80
1.80
1.80
1.80
1.80
1.80
1.80
1.80
1.80
1.80
1.80
1.80
1.80
1.80
1.80
1.80
1.80
1.82
1.82
1.82
1.82
1.82
1.82
1.82
1.82

Y2
3.8025
4.0804
3.8025
3.8025
4.0000
4.1616
4.0000
4.0804
4.0000
4.0804
4.1616
4.1616
4.1616
4.1616
4.1616
4.1616
4.2436
4.2436
4.2436
4.2436
4.3264
4.1616
4.1616
4.2436
4.2436
4.2436
4.2436
4.3264
4.3264
4.3264
4.3264
4.3264
4.3264
4.3264
4.3264
4.3264
4.4100
4.4100
4.4100
4.4521
4.4521
4.2436
4.2436
4.2436
4.3264
4.3264
4.3264
4.3264
4.3264

XY
2.5350
2.6260
2.5545
2.5545
2.6200
2.6724
2.6400
2.6664
2.6600
2.6866
2.7132
2.7132
2.7132
2.7132
2.7132
2.7132
2.7398
2.7398
2.7398
2.7398
2.7664
2.7336
2.7336
2.7604
2.7604
2.7604
2.7604
2.7872
2.7872
2.7872
2.7872
2.7872
2.7872
2.7872
2.7872
2.7872
2.8140
2.8140
2.8140
2.8274
2.8274
2.7810
2.7810
2.7810
2.8080
2.8080
2.8080
2.8080
2.8080

Ulangan

JKGM

2

0.00245

4

0.00570

2

0.00020

13

0.00492

20

0.00772

6

No
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80

X
1.35
1.35
1.35
1.35
1.35
1.35
1.35
1.35
1.35
1.35
1.35
1.35
1.35
1.35
1.35
1.36
1.36
1.36
1.36
1.36
1.36
1.36
1.36
1.36
1.37
1.37
1.37
1.37
1.38
1.38
1.40
107.5

Y
2.08
2.10
2.10
2.10
2.10
2.10
2.11
2.11
2.11
2.11
2.13
2.13
2.13
2.15
2.18
2.10
2.11
2.15
2.15
2.15
2.15
2.16
2.16
2.16
2.16
2.18
2.19
2.23
2.22
2.23
2.23
167.12

X2
1.82
1.82
1.82
1.82
1.82
1.82
1.82
1.82
1.82
1.82
1.82
1.82
1.82
1.82
1.82
1.85
1.85
1.85
1.85
1.85
1.85
1.85
1.85
1.85
1.88
1.88
1.88
1.88
1.90
1.90
1.96
144.4772

1.3438

2.0890

1.805965

X
Y
ΣX i
ΣYi

= 1.3438
= 2.0890
= 107.5
= 167.12

ΣX i
2
ΣYi
ΣX i Y
JKGM
2

Y2
4.3264
4.4100
4.4100
4.4100
4.4100
4.4100
4.4521
4.4521
4.4521
4.4521
4.5369
4.5369
4.5369
4.6225
4.7524
4.4100
4.4521
4.6225
4.6225
4.6225
4.6225
4.6656
4.6656
4.6656
4.6656
4.7524
4.7961
4.9729
4.9284
4.9729
4.9729
349.3934
4.367417
5

XY
2.8080
2.8350
2.8350
2.8350
2.8350
2.8350
2.8485
2.8485
2.8485
2.8485
2.8755
2.8755
2.8755
2.9025
2.9430
2.8560
2.8696
2.9240
2.9240
2.9240
2.9240
2.9376
2.9376
2.9376
2.9592
2.9866
3.0003
3.0551
3.0636
3.0774
3.1220
224.6412

Ulangan

JKGM

23

0.01918

9

0.00400

4

0.00260

2

0.00005
0.046825686

2.808015

= 144.4772
= 349.3934
= 224.6412
= 0.04682569

7

a. Jika model regresinya Y = β0Xβ1ε, tentukanlah β0 dan β1 serta persamaan garis regresinya!
Jika persamaan Y = β0Xβ1ε, di rubah jadi bentuk logaritma:
Log Y = Log β0 + β1 Log X + Log ε atau
Y* = β0* + β1X* + ε*
ΣX i ΣYi
n
β1 =
(ΣX i ) 2
2
ΣX i −
n
(107.5)(167.12)
224.6412 −
80
=
(107.5) 2
144.4772 −
80
= 3.061267
ΣX i Yi −

β 0 * = Y − β1 X

= 2.0890 − 3.061267(1.3438)
= -2.024577

Persamaan regresinya:
Y* = -2.0246 + 3.0613 X
Dari persamaan tersebut bisa didapatkan nilai β0 dan β1:
β0 = 10β0 = 10(-2.024577362)
= 0.0094498 ; dan
β1 = 3.06127
Sehingga persamaan regresinya:
Y = 0.00945 X 3.06127

Koefisien Korelasi:

ΣX i ΣYi
n
ryx =
2

(ΣX i ) ⎞⎛ 2 (ΣYi ) 2 ⎞
⎟⎜ ΣYi −

⎜⎜ ΣX i 2 −
n ⎟⎠⎜⎝
n ⎟⎠

(107.5)(167.12)
224.6412 −
80
=
2

(107.5) ⎞⎛
(167.12) 2
⎜⎜144.4772 −
⎟⎟⎜⎜ 349.3934 −
80 ⎠⎝
80

= 0.898096

Koefisien Determinasi:
2
R 2 = ryx
= (0.890182) 2
= 0.792424

ΣX i Yi −


⎟⎟

8

b. Uji Statistik (Analisis Varians termasuk Simpangan Model dan Galat Murni)
(ΣYi ) 2 ( 167.12 ) 2
FK =
=
n
80
= 349.113680
JKT = ΣYi − FK
= 349.393400 -349.113680
= 0.279720
2

ΣX i ΣYi ⎤

JK Re gresi = β1 ⎢ ΣX i Yi −
n ⎥⎦

( 107.5 )( 167.12 ) ⎤

= 3.061267 ⎢224.6412⎥⎦
80

= 0.225615
JK Re sidu = JKT-JK Re g
= 0.279720 − 0.225615
= 0.054105
JKGM = 0.046826
JKSM = JK Re sidu-JKGM
= 0.054105 - 0.046826
= 0.007279

Tabel Analisis Varians Regresi:
Sumber Ragam
Regresi
Residu
SM
GM
Total

DB
1
78
8
70
79

JK
0.225615
0.054105
0.007279
0.046826
0.279720

RJK
F-hit
F.05 F.01
0.225615 325.26
3.96
6.97
0.000694
2.07
2.78
0.000910 1.36tn
0.000669

9