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Management Summary

Quo Vadis, Photovoltaic? Business Designs of the Future

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module. Photovoltaic? Scenarios 2012+ ƒ Global competition ƒ Just a few.com 1 . dominating player ƒ Focused.oliverwyman. Bosch.g. regions) ƒ Low degree of professionalism (“startup” atmosphere) ƒ Heterogeneous business models ƒ Globalization of the businesses and players – Chinese players entering EU – US players entering China ƒ Immature technologies Oliver Wyman study “Quo Vadis. silicon) – Distribution – „Old economy“ player entering the market (e. Siemens) ƒ Mature technologies ƒ Sustainable price decreases Commodity Business © Oliver Wyman  www.The future? The PV market is a pure play „commodity business“ with fragmented structures – substantial and structural changes expected Current market and future scenarios PV market 2009 ƒ Subsidy driven growth in selected regions ƒ Very fragmented market (value chain. differentiated business models ƒ Tough competition in each value chain level – Manufacturing (cell.

Oliver Wyman analysis 2014 e 13.com 2 .000 CAGR: 58% 2014 CAGR: 10% 2009 Germany 2014 2009 CAGR: 30% Japan 600 2014 477 2009 2014 730 675 1.216 © Oliver Wyman  www. US will grow significantly in importance PV Capacity in selected regions Forecast in MW.200 160 2009 USA 69 2009 2014 2009 Italy 2014 China CAGR: 28% 2014 “Green” economic stimulus package of ~70 bn USD1 Spain CAGR: 53% ƒ Other substantial growth markets in 2009: (Czech Republic. Bank Sarasin 2009.Global PV Market Spanish market collapsed in 2009.200 2009 France 3. 2009 . Germany is by far the biggest market.810 CAGR ~14% Worldwide 7.800 CAGR: 1% 4.000 185 CAGR: 44% 660 484 CAGR: 20% 1.oliverwyman. New Energy Finance. ) Market collapse due to limitation of government subsidies (500 MW until 2011) 30 2009 250 2014 170 400 2009 2014 South Corea India 2009 Source: EPIA May 2010.2014 CAGR: 29% 3.

US. HVAC. HVAC.com 3 . established HVAC.German PV Market – Overview of Distribution Landscape PV Modules are distributed via B2B (~70%) and B2C/project business (~30%) channels Extract of PV Value Chain Distribution Channel Structure Channel relevance in % of total MWp in 2009 PV Module Producer Remarks ƒ Separation into: − B2B business: Sale of PV products to installers − B2C business: Project business for financial investors / financiers and utility. energy efficiency consultants) B2B business Source: Oliver Wyman analysis B2C business © Oliver Wyman  www.g. the B2C channel will be substantially bigger PV OEM ~60% System Integrator & PV-Wholesaler ~20% Distribution / Project Planning ~10% Wholesaler (Electrical.g.or real-estate companies ƒ Supplier market to turn into buyer’s market – Installers to become more selective ƒ Established distribution channels and brands with increased importance for for sale of PV modules & systems (e. Roofers Solar ~30% Non-residential /open space End customers market Residential Influencer (e. roofing) Project engineers Installers Installation Electricians.oliverwyman. China). EWS installer networks) ƒ Solar Installer / Solateurs to become more sophisticated ƒ In other regions (e. architects.g.

Oliver Wyman © Oliver Wyman  www. changes in % Ø = -30% +100% Evergreen Solar First Solar +80% Revenue change (1 HY 2008 vs. 1HY 2009.oliverwyman.. 1 HY 2009) Centrotherm Photovoltaics +60% Phoenix Solar Renewable Energy Solar Enertech PV Crystalox Solar Sunways Solarworld +20% Kyocera Mitsubishi Electric +0% Mitsubishi Materials Colexon Energy Trina Solar Sunpower Suntech Power -20% Centrosolar Group Gintech Energy LDK Solar Q-Cells SE Solargiga Energy Solon SE JA Solar Renesola Solarfun Power PV Enterprise Sweden -40% Aleo Solar Yingli Green Energy Ø= -16.Development of players Although the PV industry was hit hard by increased margin pressure.com 4 . some players perform substantially better in revenue and EBIT Revenues and margins of selected players 1 HY 2008 vs.8% -40% Memc Electronic Materials -20% Solar Fabrik Solartech Energy Canadian Solar Conergy +0% +20 -60% -140% -120% -100% -80% -60% -80% EBIT change (1 HY 2008 vs. 1HY 2009) Source: Thomson.

com 5 .PV business models – Current positioning of major players In the world-wide PV industry multiple different business models currently exist.oliverwyman. no clear archetypes have yet emerged. Current positioning 2009 (number of major PV players) Poly-Silicon Ingots & Wafers Cells Modules System integration Wholesale 7 3 7 8 21 2 6 9 10 61 7 6 3 3 Total: 105 global PV players 1 System integration for projects Source: Oliver Wyman 3 4 © Oliver Wyman  www.

com 6 .© Oliver Wyman  www.oliverwyman.