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From Socr

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**

Jump to: navigation, search

**This is a General Statistics Curriculum E-Book, including Advanced-Placement (AP)
**

materials.

EBook

Contents

[hide]

• 1 Preface

o 1.1 Format

o 1.2 Learning and Instructional Usage

• 2 Chapter I: Introduction to Statistics

o 2.1 The Nature of Data and Variation

o 2.2 Uses and Abuses of Statistics

o 2.3 Design of Experiments

o 2.4 Statistics with Tools (Calculators and Computers)

• 3 Chapter II: Describing, Exploring, and Comparing Data

o 3.1 Types of Data

o 3.2 Summarizing Data with Frequency Tables

o 3.3 Pictures of Data

o 3.4 Measures of Central Tendency

o 3.5 Measures of Variation

o 3.6 Measures of Shape

o 3.7 Statistics

o 3.8 Graphs and Exploratory Data Analysis

• 4 Chapter III: Probability

o 4.1 Fundamentals

o 4.2 Rules for Computing Probabilities

o 4.3 Probabilities Through Simulations

o 4.4 Counting

• 5 Chapter IV: Probability Distributions

o 5.1 Random Variables

o 5.2 Expectation (Mean) and Variance

o 5.3 Bernoulli and Binomial Experiments

o 5.4 Multinomial Experiments

o 5.5 Geometric, Hypergeometric and Negative Binomial

o 5.6 Poisson Distribution

• 6 Chapter V: Normal Probability Distribution

o 6.1 The Standard Normal Distribution

o 6.2 Nonstandard Normal Distribution: Finding Probabilities

o 6.3 Nonstandard Normal Distribution: Finding Scores (Critical Values)

• 7 Chapter VI: Relations Between Distributions

o 7.1 The Central Limit Theorem

o 7.2 Law of Large Numbers

o 7.3 Normal Distribution as Approximation to Binomial Distribution

o 7.4 Poisson Approximation to Binomial Distribution

o 7.5 Binomial Approximation to Hypergeometric

o 7.6 Normal Approximation to Poisson

• 8 Chapter VII: Point and Interval Estimates

o 8.1 Method of Moments and Maximum Likelihood Estimation

o 8.2 Estimating a Population Mean: Large Samples

o 8.3 Estimating a Population Mean: Small Samples

o 8.4 Student's T distribution

o 8.5 Estimating a Population Proportion

o 8.6 Estimating a Population Variance

• 9 Chapter VIII: Hypothesis Testing

o 9.1 Fundamentals of Hypothesis Testing

o 9.2 Testing a Claim about a Mean: Large Samples

o 9.3 Testing a Claim about a Mean: Small Samples

o 9.4 Testing a Claim about a Proportion

o 9.5 Testing a Claim about a Standard Deviation or Variance

• 10 Chapter IX: Inferences From Two Samples

o 10.1 Inferences About Two Means: Dependent Samples

o 10.2 Inferences About Two Means: Independent Samples

o 10.3 Comparing Two Variances

o 10.4 Inferences about Two Proportions

• 11 Chapter X: Correlation and Regression

o 11.1 Correlation

o 11.2 Regression

o 11.3 Variation and Prediction Intervals

o 11.4 Multiple Regression

• 12 Chapter XI: Analysis of Variance (ANOVA)

o 12.1 One-Way ANOVA

o 12.2 Two-Way ANOVA

• 13 Chapter XII: Non-Parametric Inference

o 13.1 Differences of Medians (Centers) of Two Paired Samples

o 13.2 Differences of Medians (Centers) of Two Independent Samples

o 13.3 Differences of Proportions of Two Samples

o 13.4 Differences of Means of Several Independent Samples

o 13.5 Differences of Variances of Independent Samples (Variance

Homogeneity)

• 14 Chapter XIII: Multinomial Experiments and Contingency Tables

o 14.1 Multinomial Experiments: Goodness-of-Fit

o 14.2 Contingency Tables: Independence and Homogeneity

• 15 Chapter XIV:Bayesian Statistics

o 15.1 Preliminaries

o 15.2 Bayesian Inference for the Normal Distribution

o 15.3 Some Other Common Distributions

o 15.4 Hypothesis Testing

o 15.5 Two Sample Problems

o 15.6 Hierarchical Models

o 15.7 The Gibbs Sampler and Other Numerical Methods

• 16 Additional EBook Chapters (under Development)

Preface

This is an Internet-based probability and statistics E-Book. This EBook, and the

materials, tools and demonstrations presented within it, may be very useful for advanced-

placement (AP) statistics educational curriculum. The E-Book is initially developed by

the UCLA Statistics Online Computational Resource (SOCR), however, all statistics

instructors, researchers and educators are encouraged to contribute to this effort and

improve the content of these learning materials.

**There are 4 novel features of this specific Statistics EBook – it is community-built,
**

completely open-access (in terms of use and contributions), blends concepts with

technology and is multi-lingual.

Format

**Follow the instructions in this page to expand, revise or improve the materials in this E-
**

Book.

**Learning and Instructional Usage
**

This section describes the means of traversing, searching, discovering and utilizing the

SOCR Statistics EBook resources in formal curricula or informal learning setting.

**Chapter I: Introduction to Statistics
**

The Nature of Data and Variation

**Although natural phenomena in real life are unpredictable, the designs of experiments are
**

bound to generate data that varies because of intrinsic (internal to the system) or extrinsic

(due to the ambient environment) effects. How many natural processes or phenomena in

real life can we describe that have an exact mathematical closed-form description and are

completely deterministic? How do we model the rest of the processes that are

unpredictable and have random characteristics?

Uses and Abuses of Statistics

**Statistics is the science of variation, randomness and chance. As such, statistics is
**

different from other sciences, where the processes being studied obey exact deterministic

mathematical laws. Statistics provides quantitative inference represented as long-time

probability values, confidence or prediction intervals, odds, chances, etc., which may

ultimately be subjected to varying interpretations. The phrase Uses and Abuses of

Statistics refers to the notion that in some cases statistical results may be used as evidence

to seemingly opposite theses. However, most of the time, common principles of logic

allow us to disambiguate the obtained statistical inference.

Design of Experiments

**Design of experiments is the blueprint for planning a study or experiment, performing the
**

data collection protocol and controlling the study parameters for accuracy and

consistency. Data, or information, is typically collected in regard to a specific process or

phenomenon being studied to investigate the effects of some controlled variables

(independent variables or predictors) on other observed measurements (responses or

dependent variables). Both types of variables are associated with specific observational

units (living beings, components, objects, materials, etc.)

Statistics with Tools (Calculators and Computers)

**All methods for data analysis, understanding or visualizing are based on models that
**

often have compact analytical representations (e.g., formulas, symbolic equations, etc.)

Models are used to study processes theoretically. Empirical validations of the utility of

models are achieved by inputting data and executing tests of the models. This validation

step may be done manually, by computing the model prediction or model inference from

recorded measurements. This process may be possible by hand, but only for small

numbers of observations (<10). In practice, we write (or use existent) algorithms and

computer programs that automate these calculations for better efficiency, accuracy and

consistency in applying models to larger datasets.

**Chapter II: Describing, Exploring, and Comparing
**

Data

Types of Data

**There are two important concepts in any data analysis - Population and Sample. Each of
**

these may generate data of two major types - Quantitative or Qualitative measurements.

Summarizing Data with Frequency Tables

**There are two important ways to describe a data set (sample from a population) - Graphs
**

or Tables.

Pictures of Data

**There are many different ways to display and graphically visualize data. These graphical
**

techniques facilitate the understanding of the dataset and enable the selection of an

appropriate statistical methodology for the analysis of the data.

Measures of Central Tendency

**There are three main features of populations (or sample data) that are always critical in
**

understanding and interpreting their distributions - Center, Spread and Shape. The main

measures of centrality are Mean, Median and Mode(s).

Measures of Variation

**There are many measures of (population or sample) spread, e.g., the range, the variance,
**

the standard deviation, mean absolute deviation, etc. These are used to assess the

dispersion or variation in the population.

Measures of Shape

**The shape of a distribution can usually be determined by looking at a histogram of a
**

(representative) sample from that population; Frequency Plots, Dot Plots or Stem and

Leaf Displays may be helpful.

Statistics

**Variables can be summarized using statistics - functions of data samples.
**

Graphs and Exploratory Data Analysis

**Graphical visualization and interrogation of data are critical components of any reliable
**

method for statistical modeling, analysis and interpretation of data.

**Chapter III: Probability
**

Probability is important in many studies and disciplines because measurements,

observations and findings are often influenced by variation. In addition, probability

theory provides the theoretical groundwork for statistical inference.

Fundamentals

**Some fundamental concepts of probability theory include random events, sampling, types
**

of probabilities, event manipulations and axioms of probability.

Rules for Computing Probabilities

**There are many important rules for computing probabilities of composite events. These
**

include conditional probability, statistical independence, multiplication and addition

rules, the law of total probability and the Bayesian rule.

Probabilities Through Simulations

**Many experimental setting require probability computations of complex events. Such
**

calculations may be carried out exactly, using theoretical models, or approximately, using

estimation or simulations.

Counting

**There are many useful counting principles (including permutations and combinations) to
**

compute the number of ways that certain arrangements of objects can be formed. This

allows counting-based estimation of probabilities of complex events.

**Chapter IV: Probability Distributions
**

There are two basic types of processes that we observe in nature - Discrete and

Continuous. We begin by discussing several important discrete random processes,

emphasizing the different distributions, expectations, variances and applications. In the

next chapter, we will discuss their continuous counterparts. The complete list of all

SOCR Distributions is available here.

Random Variables

To simplify the calculations of probabilities, we will define the concept of a random

variable which will allow us to study uniformly various processes with the same

mathematical and computational techniques.

Expectation (Mean) and Variance

**The expectation and the variance for any discrete random variable or process are
**

important measures of Centrality and Dispersion. This section also presents the

definitions of some common population- or sample-based moments.

Bernoulli and Binomial Experiments

**The Bernoulli and Binomial processes provide the simplest models for discrete random
**

experiments.

Multinomial Experiments

**Multinomial processes extend the Binomial experiments for the situation of multiple
**

possible outcomes.

Geometric, Hypergeometric and Negative Binomial

**The Geometric, Hypergeometric and Negative Binomial distributions provide
**

computational models for calculating probabilities for a large number of experiment and

random variables. This section presents the theoretical foundations and the applications

of each of these discrete distributions.

Poisson Distribution

**The Poisson distribution models many different discrete processes where the probability
**

of the observed phenomenon is constant in time or space. Poisson distribution may be

used as an approximation to the Binomial distribution.

**Chapter V: Normal Probability Distribution
**

The Normal Distribution is perhaps the most important model for studying quantitative

phenomena in the natural and behavioral sciences - this is due to the Central Limit

Theorem. Many numerical measurements (e.g., weight, time, etc.) can be well

approximated by the normal distribution.

The Standard Normal Distribution

**The Standard Normal Distribution is the simplest version (zero-mean, unit-standard-
**

deviation) of the (General) Normal Distribution. Yet, it is perhaps the most frequently

used version because many tables and computational resources are explicitly available for

calculating probabilities.

Nonstandard Normal Distribution: Finding Probabilities

**In practice, the mechanisms underlying natural phenomena may be unknown, yet the use
**

of the normal model can be theoretically justified in many situations to compute critical

and probability values for various processes.

Nonstandard Normal Distribution: Finding Scores (Critical Values)

**In addition to being able to compute probability (p) values, we often need to estimate the
**

critical values of the Normal Distribution for a given p-value.

**Chapter VI: Relations Between Distributions
**

In this chapter, we will explore the relations between different distributions. This

knowledge will help us to compute difficult probabilities using reasonable

approximations and identify appropriate probability models, graphical and statistical

analysis tools for data interpretation. The complete list of all SOCR Distributions is

available here and the SOCR Distributome applet provides an interactive graphical

interface for exploring the relations between different distributions.

The Central Limit Theorem

**The exploration of the relation between different distributions begins with the study of
**

the sampling distribution of the sample average. This will demonstrate the universally

important role of normal distribution.

Law of Large Numbers

**Suppose the relative frequency of occurrence of one event whose probability to be
**

observed at each experiment is p. If we repeat the same experiment over and over, the

ratio of the observed frequency of that event to the total number of repetitions converges

towards p as the number of experiments increases. Why is that and why is this important?

Normal Distribution as Approximation to Binomial Distribution

**Normal Distribution provides a valuable approximation to Binomial when the sample
**

sizes are large and the probability of successes and failures are not close to zero.

Poisson Approximation to Binomial Distribution

**Poisson provides an approximation to Binomial Distribution when the sample sizes are
**

large and the probability of successes or failures is close to zero.

Binomial Approximation to Hypergeometric

**Binomial Distribution is much simpler to compute, compared to Hypergeometric, and can
**

be used as an approximation when the population sizes are large (relative to the sample

size) and the probability of successes is not close to zero.

Normal Approximation to Poisson

The Poisson can be approximated fairly well by Normal Distribution when λ is large.

**Chapter VII: Point and Interval Estimates
**

Estimation of population parameters is critical in many applications. Estimation is most

frequently carried in terms of point-estimates or interval (range) estimates for population

parameters that are of interest.

Method of Moments and Maximum Likelihood Estimation

**There are many ways to obtain point (value) estimates of various population parameters
**

of interest, using observed data from the specific process we study. The method of

moments and the maximum likelihood estimation are among the most popular ones

frequently used in practice.

Estimating a Population Mean: Large Samples

This section discusses how to find point and interval estimates when the sample-sizes are

large.

Estimating a Population Mean: Small Samples

**Next, we discuss point and interval estimates when the sample-sizes are small. Naturally,
**

the point estimates are less precise and the interval estimates produce wider intervals,

compared to the case of large-samples.

Student's T distribution

**The Student's T-Distribution arises in the problem of estimating the mean of a normally
**

distributed population when the sample size is small and the population variance is

unknown.

Estimating a Population Proportion

**Normal Distribution is appropriate model for proportions, when the sample size is large
**

enough. In this section, we demonstrate how to obtain point and interval estimates for

population proportion.

Estimating a Population Variance

**In many processes and experiments, controlling the amount of variance is of critical
**

importance. Thus the ability to assess variation, using point and interval estimates,

facilitates our ability to make inference, revise manufacturing protocols, improve clinical

trials, etc.

**Chapter VIII: Hypothesis Testing
**

Hypothesis Testing is a statistical technique for decision making regarding populations

or processes based on experimental data. It quantitatively answers the possibility that

chance alone might be responsible for the observed discrepancy between a theoretical

model and the empirical observations.

Fundamentals of Hypothesis Testing

**In this section, we define the core terminology necessary to discuss Hypothesis Testing
**

(Null and Alternative Hypotheses, Type I and II errors, Sensitivity, Specificity, Statistical

Power, etc.)

Testing a Claim about a Mean: Large Samples

**As we already saw how to construct point and interval estimates for the population mean
**

in the large sample case, we now show how to do hypothesis testing in the same situation.

Testing a Claim about a Mean: Small Samples

We continue with the discussion on inference for the population mean for small samples.

Testing a Claim about a Proportion

**When the sample size is large, the sampling distribution of the sample proportion is
**

approximately Normal, by CLT. This helps us formulate hypothesis testing protocols and

compute the appropriate statistics and p-values to assess significance.

Testing a Claim about a Standard Deviation or Variance

**The significance testing for the variation or the standard deviation of a process, a natural
**

phenomenon or an experiment is of paramount importance in many fields. This chapter

provides the details for formulating testable hypotheses, computation, and inference on

assessing variation.

**Chapter IX: Inferences From Two Samples
**

In this chapter, we continue our pursuit and study of significance testing in the case of

having two populations. This expands the possible applications of one-sample hypothesis

testing we saw in the previous chapter.

Inferences About Two Means: Dependent Samples

**We need to clearly identify whether samples we compare are Dependent or Independent
**

in all study designs. In this section, we discuss one specific dependent-samples case -

Paired Samples.

Inferences About Two Means: Independent Samples

**Independent Samples designs refer to experiments or observations where all
**

measurements are individually independent from each other within their groups and the

groups are independent. In this section, we discuss inference based on independent

samples.

Comparing Two Variances

**In this section, we compare variances (or standard deviations) of two populations using
**

randomly sampled data.

Inferences about Two Proportions

**This section presents the significance testing and inference on equality of proportions
**

from two independent populations.

**Chapter X: Correlation and Regression
**

Many scientific applications involve the analysis of relationships between two or more

variables involved in a process of interest. We begin with the simplest of all situations

where Bivariate Data (X and Y) are measured for a process and we are interested on

determining the association, relation or an appropriate model for these observations (e.g.,

fitting a straight line to the pairs of (X,Y) data).

Correlation

**The Correlation between X and Y represents the first bivariate model of association
**

which may be used to make predictions.

Regression

**We are now ready to discuss the modeling of linear relations between two variables using
**

Regression Analysis. This section demonstrates this methodology for the SOCR

California Earthquake dataset.

Variation and Prediction Intervals

In this section, we discuss point and interval estimates about the slope of linear models.

Multiple Regression

**Now, we are interested in determining linear regressions and multilinear models of the
**

relationships between one dependent variable Y and many independent variables Xi.

**Chapter XI: Analysis of Variance (ANOVA)
**

One-Way ANOVA

**We now expand our inference methods to study and compare k independent samples. In
**

this case, we will be decomposing the entire variation in the data into independent

components.

Two-Way ANOVA

**Now we focus on decomposing the variance of a dataset into (independent/orthogonal)
**

components when we have two (grouping) factors. This procedure called Two-Way

Analysis of Variance.

**Chapter XII: Non-Parametric Inference
**

To be valid, many statistical methods impose (parametric) requirements about the format,

parameters and distributions of the data to be analyzed. For instance, the Independent T-

Test requires the distributions of the two samples to be Normal, whereas Non-Parametric

(distribution-free) statistical methods are often useful in practice, and are less-powerful.

Differences of Medians (Centers) of Two Paired Samples

The Sign Test and the Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test are the simplest non-parametric tests

which are also alternatives to the One-Sample and Paired T-Test. These tests are

applicable for paired designs where the data is not required to be normally distributed.

Differences of Medians (Centers) of Two Independent Samples

**The Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney (WMW) Test (also known as Mann-Whitney U Test,
**

Mann-Whitney-Wilcoxon Test, or Wilcoxon rank-sum Test) is a non-parametric test for

assessing whether two samples come from the same distribution.

**Differences of Proportions of Two Samples
**

Depending upon whether the samples are dependent or independent, we use different

statistical tests.

Differences of Means of Several Independent Samples

**We now extend the multi-sample inference which we discussed in the ANOVA section, to
**

the situation where the ANOVA assumptions are invalid.

Differences of Variances of Independent Samples (Variance Homogeneity)

**There are several tests for variance equality in k samples. These tests are commonly
**

known as tests for Homogeneity of Variances.

**Chapter XIII: Multinomial Experiments and
**

Contingency Tables

Multinomial Experiments: Goodness-of-Fit

**The Chi-Square Test is used to test if a data sample comes from a population with
**

specific characteristics.

Contingency Tables: Independence and Homogeneity

**The Chi-Square Test may also be used to test for independence (or association) between
**

two variables.

**Chapter XIV:Bayesian Statistics
**

Preliminaries

**This section will establish the groundwork for Bayesian Statistics. Probability, Random
**

Variables, Means, Variances, and the Bayes’ Theorem will all be discussed.

Bayesian Inference for the Normal Distribution

**In this section, we will provide the basic framework for Bayesian statistical inference.
**

Generally, we take some prior beliefs about some hypothesis and then modify these prior

beliefs, based on some data that we collect, in order to arrive at posterior beliefs. Another

way to think about Bayesian Inference is that we are using new evidence or observations

to update some probability that a hypothesis is true.

**Some Other Common Distributions
**

This section explains the binomial, poisson, and uniform distributions in terms of

Bayesian Inference.

Hypothesis Testing

This section will talk about both the classical approach to hypothesis testing and also the

Bayesian approach.

Two Sample Problems

**This section discusses two sample problems, with variances unknown, both equal and
**

unequal. The Behrens-Fisher controversy will also be discussion

Hierarchical Models

**Hierarchical linear models are statistical models of parameters that vary at more than a
**

single level. These models are seen as generalizations of linear models and may extend to

non-linear models. Any underlying correlations in the particular model must be

represented in analysis for correct inference to be drawn.

The Gibbs Sampler and Other Numerical Methods

**Topics covered will include Monte Carlo Methods, Markov Chains, the EM Algorithm,
**

and the Gibbs Sampler.

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