G ARIN H ART Y ANG

RESEARCH GROUP
MEMORANDUM
TO: FROM: DATE: RE: Brown Ulman 2014 Frederick Yang September 20, 2013

1724 Connecticut Avenue, N.W. Washington, DC 20009 Tel: (202) 234-5570 Fax: (202) 232-8134 www.hartresearch.com

Latest Statewide Survey Confirms Anthony Brown Remains Strongly Positioned In Democratic Primary For Governor

Between September 11 and 15, 2013, Garin-Hart-Yang interviewed a statewide sample of 608 likely Democratic primary voters. The survey, which has a margin of error of +4.0 percentage points, is fully representative of a 2014 statewide Democratic primary electorate by key geographic and demographic factors. Lt. Governor Brown has significantly INCREASED his strong lead in the Democratic primary election since our 2012 poll, going from a 14-point lead last September to a 22-point lead this September in the three-way trial heat.

Three-way Trial Heat
SEPTEMBER 2013 SEPTEMBER 2012

Two-way Trial Heat
SEPTEMBER 2013 SEPTEMBER 2012

+22
Gansler 21% Brown 43% Gansler 23%

+14
Brown 37%
Gansler 24%

+22
Brown 46% Gansler 25%

+16
Brown 41%

5% Mizeur

5% Ulman
30% Undecided 34% Undecided

31% Undecided

35% Undecided

As we found in last year’s survey, the breadth of the Lt. Governor’s electoral support among Maryland Democrats is impressive and truly encompasses a broadbased coalition. The Lt. Governor has a 29-point lead in the Baltimore media market, while he now has a comfortable double-digit lead in the Washington, D.C., media market. He leads by double-digits with both men AND women, and remarkably, the Lt. Governor leads by almost identical two-to-one margins among liberals, moderates, and conservatives.

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G ARIN H ART Y ANG RESEARCH GROUP
There are several important factors for the Lt. Governor’s early and strong lead in the polls. First, Anthony Brown has solid statewide name recognition and is extremely wellliked among primary voters, enjoying feeling thermometer scores that run positive by an impressive five-to-one ratio. (The Lt. Governor is better-liked among undecided voters than the Attorney General). Second, three-fifths (59%) of Maryland Democrats believe the state is headed in the right direction (30% say things are off on the wrong track) and an even higher proportion approve of Governor O’Malley’s job performance. Attorney General Gansler’s dilemma is perhaps best illustrated by this cross tab result: among the VAST majority of primary voters who are optimistic about the state, Anthony Brown leads Gansler by an overwhelming 50% to 19%. Among the minority of “wrong track” voters, the two candidates are tied. Third, there is INTENSITY to the Lt. Governor’s support that is lacking with his opponents. For example, three-fifths (59%) of Anthony Brown’s voters say they support him strongly; the corresponding figure for Doug Gansler is 38%. In other words, Lt. Governor Brown has the best of both worlds: he has MORE of the vote and he has a more COMMITTED vote. In the year since we conducted our last survey, Anthony Brown has not only earned the support of an impressive array of statewide and local Democratic elected officials and organizations, but he has improved upon his already strong lead in the trial heat. While the proportion of “undecided” voters stands at 31% and the nature of primaries is to be dynamic and fluid, the bottom line is that Anthony Brown has strengthened his standing and is better positioned today to win the Democratic nomination.

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