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SIENA RESEARCH INSTITUTE

SIENA COLLEGE, LOUDONVILLE, NY


www.siena.edu/sri
For Immediate Release: Contact: PDF version; crosstabs; website: Monday, June 17, 2013 Steven Greenberg, 518-469-9858 www.Siena.edu/SRI/SNY

Siena College Poll:

Majority of Voters Think Silver Should Step Down as Speaker


Voters: Pass 10-Point Womens Equality Act, Including Abortion Provisions; Strongly Favor Making NY Law Consistent with Roe v. Wade & Current Practice Cuomo Favorability/Job Performance Lowest Since Hes Been Governor
Loudonville, NY. More than half of New York voters, 52 percent, feel Speaker Sheldon Silver should step down as Speaker. They say he failed the people of New York and (former Assemblyman Vito) Lopezs accusers by not addressing the issue appropriately and by not being completely honest. Thirty-two percent feel Silvers approach to the Lopez situation is not a reason for him to step down as Speaker, even though he might not have handled the situation ideally but he is not guilty of anything and he has apologized, according to a new Siena College Poll of New York voters released today. A majority of voters favor passing all ten points Governor Andrew Cuomos Womens Equality Act, including the two abortion provisions, compared to one-third who would like to see nine points of the Act passed, excluding those provisions. Voters strongly support making New York law consistent with Roe v. Wade and current practice regarding late-term abortions. A majority also agrees with supporters of those provisions that the bill merely protects existing rights, while one-third agree with opponents that the provisions expand abortion rights. Cuomos favorability rating, 58-35 percent (down from 64-32 percent last month), is the lowest it has been since hes been governor, as is his job performance rating at 50-49 percent (down from 52-47 percent in May). Speaker Silver with his worst-ever favorability rating in a Siena College Poll and a negative three-to-one job performance rating does not have the confidence of New York voters, with more than half suggesting that he step down as speaker in light of his handling of the Lopez investigation, said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg. Silver, who represents a district in lower Manhattan and has led Assembly Democrats for nearly two decades, has never enjoyed a strong favorability rating from statewide voters, with more voters consistently viewing him unfavorably than favorably. However, at 20-43 percent, it is now better than two-to-one unfavorable. A majority of Republicans and independents, downstate suburbanites and upstaters, men and women, and a plurality of Democrats and New York City voters believe Speaker Silver should step down, Greenberg said. more

Siena College Poll June 17, 2013 Page 2 A Clear Majority of New York Voters Fall on the Pro-Choice Side of the Current Abortion Debate By a 60-24 percent margin voters support making state law consistent with Roe v. Wade. By a 67-28 percent margin they support making state law consistent with current practice regarding late-term abortions to protect a womans life or health, as determined by a licensed physician. And by a 56-31 percent margin voters support including both provisions in the passage of the Womens Equality Act. Similarly, 53 percent want to see the Womens Equality Act passed including the abortion provisions, compared to 32 percent who would like the Act to pass with all the points except the abortion provisions, while nine percent do not want to see it passed at all. Both questions of making New York law consistent with current practice have the support of a majority of voters from every region, party, both genders, and Catholics, with the exception of codifying Roe v. Wade only having the support of a plurality of Republicans, Greenberg said. Should both of those provisions be in the Womens Equality Act? Yes, according to a majority of voters from every region, men and women, Democrats and independents. A plurality of Republicans says no, while a plurality of Catholics say yes. Fifty-two percent believe these provisions protect existing rights, compared to 33 percent who believe they expand abortion rights. When it comes to passing the Womens Equality Act, two-thirds of Democrats, a majority of New York City voters and women, and a plurality of independents, upstate and downstate suburban voters, and men say they want it passed with all 10 points proposed by the Governor, including the abortion provisions. Greenberg said. A plurality of Republicans wants to see the nine points passed, without the abortion provisions, while Catholic voters are evenly divided between favoring 10 points or nine points of the Womens Equality Act being passed. Cuomo Ratings Hit Lowest Level in His 2 Years As Governor Fifty-two percent say they are prepared to re-elect Cuomo, while 41 percent would prefer someone else (down from 55-36 percent in May). Governor Cuomos standing with voters has now reached the lowest since hes been governor, Greenberg said. His 58 percent favorable rating is the lowest it has ever been as governor four points lower than the 62 percent rating he had two months ago and the lowest its been since October 2010, one month before his election. His drop this month is more attributable to Democrats than to Republicans or independents. His job performance rating now virtually dead even is also the lowest it has been during his tenure as governor. For the fourth consecutive month and fourth time ever, more voters think hes doing a poor job as governor than an excellent job, Greenberg said. While 62 percent of voters were prepared to re-elect Cuomo in December, that has fallen ten points, as the percentage of those preferring someone else has climbed 12 points. more

Siena College Poll June 17, 2013 Page 3 Govs Tax-Free NY Initiative Largely Unknown to Most Voters; Those with Opinion, Are Evenly Divided Despite the Governor and his cabinet doing roughly two solid weeks of events to promote his tax-free New York proposal, only about one-third of voters have read or heard a great deal or some about it, while two-thirds say they have heard or read nothing at all or not very much about it, Greenberg said. When asked whether they support or oppose passage of the tax-free New York legislation, 64 percent said they do not have enough information to say, while 18 percent support it and 17 percent oppose it, Greenberg said. Familiarity with the proposal is greatest upstate more than half of upstaters have heard or read at least some about it, while nearly half of downstaters have heard nothing at all about it. However, opposition to the proposal is also greatest upstate, with 20 percent supporting it and 30 percent opposing it. Addressing Legislative Corruption is Top Priority for Voters Heading into Last Week of Session Heading into the final week of the 2013 regular legislative session, a plurality of voters, 44 percent including a majority or plurality of voters from every region, party and demographic group, and up three points from last month says that passing laws to address corruption should be the number one priority for the governor and legislators before session ends. Approving the Governors Womens Equality Act came in second at 23 percent, up two points from last month, followed by public campaign financing at 13 percent, down two points, and passing the casino amendment at 12 percent, down one point, Greenberg said. Support for Casino Gambling Amendment Wanes in Last Month Support for a constitutional amendment allowing non-Indian casinos in New York has fallen to 49-40 percent, down from 53-37 percent last month, Greenberg said. While the amendment has support from a majority of independents, only pluralities of Democrats and Republicans support it. There is little regional difference, as it has support from 51 percent of upstaters, 48 percent in New York City and 47 percent in the downstate suburbs. Opposition to Fracking Increases a Little, Even as the Issue Continues to Divide Voters Opposition to fracking increased a little this month and opponents outnumber supporters 44-37 percent, up from 41-39 percent last month. The seven-point edge in opposition is the largest it has been, Greenberg said. There is a clear partisan divide as it is supported nearly two-to-one by Republicans, opposed two-to-one by Democrats and divides independents virtually evenly. A majority of upstaters and plurality of New York City voters oppose fracking, while a plurality of downstate suburbanites wants to see fracking move forward. ###
This Siena College Poll was conducted June 9-13, 2013 by telephone calls to 804 New York State registered voters. It has an overall margin of error of + 3.9 percentage points. Data was statistically adjusted by age, party, region and gender to ensure representativeness. Sampling was conducted via random digit dialing to landline and cell phones weighted to reflect known population patterns. The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social and cultural research primarily in New York State. SRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, call Steve Greenberg at (518) 469-9858. For survey cross-tabs and frequencies: www.Siena.edu/SRI/SNY.

SIENA RESEARCH INSTITUTE


SIENA COLLEGE, LOUDONVILLE, NY
www.siena.edu/sri

Siena College Poll Trends June 2013


Q. 2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion about Andrew Cuomo? DATE June 2013 May 2013 April 2013 March 2013 February 2013 January 2013 December 2012 October 2012 August 2012 July 2012 HIGHEST EVER LOWEST EVER Q. 9 FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE 58 35 64 32 62 33 64 30 67 29 71 24 72 21 67 24 71 24 69 22 77 (2/11) 42 (10/06) 44 (8/06, 10/06) 14 (8/09) DONT KNOW/NO OPINION 6 5 4 6 4 5 7 9 5 9 24 (1/06, 2/06, 9/07) 3 (10/20/10)

How would you rate the job that Andrew Cuomo is doing as Governor? Would you rate it excellent, good, fair, or poor? DATE June 2013 May 2013 April 2013 March 2013 February 2013 January 2013 December 2012 October 2012 August 2012 July 2012 HIGHEST EVER LOWEST EVER EXCELLENT GOOD FAIR POOR DONT KNOW/NO OPINION 9 41 34 15 1 10 42 31 16 1 11 41 31 16 1 12 42 31 13 1 16 42 28 13 1 16 44 28 10 1 15 45 30 8 2 15 43 32 8 3 16 44 33 7 1 13 45 33 8 1 17 (1/12) 47 (4/12, etc.) 36 (9/11, 5/11) 16 (5/13, 4/13) 28 (1/11) 8 (3/11) 34 (1/11) 24 (1/11) 4 (2/11, 1/11) 1 (many)

Q. 8

I know its a long way off, but if Andrew Cuomo runs for re -election as Governor in 2014, as things stand now, would you vote to re-elect him or would you prefer someone else? DATE June 2013 May 2013 April 2013 March 2013 February 2013 January 2013 December 2012 HIGHEST EVER LOWEST EVER RE-ELECT CUOMO 52 55 53 54 56 60 62 62 (12/12) 52 (6/13) PREFER SOMEONE ELSE 41 36 39 37 36 32 29 41 (6/13) 29 (12/12) DONT KNOW/NO OPINION 7 9 7 9 8 8 9 9 (3/13, 12/12) 7 (6/13, 4/13)

Siena College Poll Trends June 2013


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Q. 6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion about the New York State Assembly? DATE June 2013 May 2013 April 2013 February 2013 January 2013 December 2012 October 2012 July 2012 HIGHEST EVER LOWEST EVER Q. 3 FAVORABLE 36 39 39 44 45 41 41 42 45 (1/13) 25 (7/10) UNFAVORABLE 51 45 49 42 42 40 41 45 61 (7/10) 40 (12/12) DONT KNOW/NO OPINION 13 16 12 14 13 19 18 13 19 (12/12) 12 (4/13, 1/10)

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion about Sheldon Silver? DATE June 2013 May 2013 April 2013 January 2013 December 2012 October 2012 July 2012 HIGHEST EVER LOWEST EVER FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE 20 43 23 34 28 39 24 38 24 34 21 39 25 37 28 (4/13, 7/05) 43 (6/13) 19 (2/11, 4/05) 30 (4/05) DONT KNOW/NO OPINION 37 43 33 38 42 41 39 50 (4/05) 33 (4/13)

Q. 7

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion about the New York State Senate? DATE June 2013 May 2013 April 2013 February 2013 January 2013 December 2012 October 2012 July 2012 HIGHEST EVER LOWEST EVER FAVORABLE 41 43 40 45 45 45 45 43 46 (5/12) 20 (7/09) UNFAVORABLE 49 48 53 46 45 41 42 48 74 (7/09) 41 (12/12) DONT KNOW/NO OPINION 11 9 7 9 10 14 13 9 14 (12/12, 6/11) 6 (7/09)

Q. 4

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion about Dean Skelos? DATE June 2013 May 2013 April 2013 January 2013 December 2012 October 2012 July 2012 HIGHEST EVER LOWEST EVER FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE 15 23 14 16 15 24 16 20 16 18 14 20 13 22 16 (1/13, 12/12) 24 (4/13) 9 (12/10) 8 (7/08) DONT KNOW/NO OPINION 63 70 61 65 67 67 64 82 (11/08) 61 (4/13)

Q. 5

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion about Jeff Klein? DATE June 2013 May 2013 April 2013 January 2013 HIGHEST EVER LOWEST EVER FAVORABLE 12 13 17 12 17 (4/13) 9 (11/09) UNFAVORABLE 12 10 15 14 15 (4/13) 7 (11/09) DONT KNOW/NO OPINION 76 76 68 73 84 (11/09) 68 (4/13)

Siena College Poll Trends June 2013


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Q. 12 How serious a problem would you say corruption is in the New York State Legislature? Would you say its very serious, somewhat serious, not very serious, or not at all serious? DATE June 2013 May 2013 April 2013 HIGHEST EVER LOWEST EVER Q. 13 VERY SOMEWHAT SERIOUS SERIOUS 51 41 41 48 41 50 51 (6/13) 50 (4/13) 41 (5/13,4/13) 41 (6/13) NOT VERY NOT AT ALL SERIOUS SERIOUS DONT KNOW/NO OPINION 5 1 3 8 0 3 6 1 2 8 (5/13) 1 (6/13, 4/13) 3 (6/13, 5/13) 5 (6/13) 0 (5/13) 2 (4/13)

Over the last few months, several state legislators have been arrested in a series of state government corruption scandals. In light of that, which of these two statements best describes how your feel: our state government is working effectively for New Yorkers, or our state government is becoming more dysfunctional every day? (CHOICES WERE ROTATED) DATE June 2013 May 2013 HIGHEST EVER LOWEST EVER EFFECTIVELY 18 26 26 (5/13) 18 (6/13) DYSFUNCTIONAL 77 67 77 (6/13) 67 (5/13) DONT KNOW/NO OPINION 5 6 6 (5/13) 5 (6/13)

Q. 14

How likely would you say it is that there will be more arrests of state legislators for corruption in the near future? Would you say it is very likely, somewhat likely, not very likely, or not likely at all? DATE June 2013 May 2013 April 2013 HIGHEST EVER LOWEST EVER VERY SOMEWHAT LIKELY LIKELY 40 47 44 44 29 52 44 (5/13) 52 (4/13) 29 (4/13) 44 (5/13) NOT VERY NOT AT ALL LIKELY LIKELY DONT KNOW/NO OPINION 10 1 2 7 2 2 12 3 3 12 (4/13) 3 (4/13) 3 (4/13) 7 (5/13) 1 (6/13) 2 (6/13, 5/13)

Q. 11

The State Legislature is scheduled to end its 2013 regular session before the end of this month. Which of the following issues that are being publicly discussed do you think should be the top priority for the Legislature and Governor before session ends: passing laws to address legislative corruption, approving the Governors womens equality act, allowing voters to decide on a constitutional amendment allowing non-Indian casinos in New York, or enacting a system of public campaign financing for New York State elections? (CHOICES WERE ROTATED) (Small, insignificant wording changes between May and June) DATE June 2013 May 2013 HIGHEST EVER LOWEST EVER LEG. WOMENS GAMBLING PUBLIC CAMP. SOMETHING CORRUPTION EQUALITY AMENDMENT FINANCE ELSE DONT KNOW/NO OPINION 44 23 12 13 5 3 41 21 13 15 5 4 44 (6/13) 23 (6/13) 13 (5/13) 15 (5/13) 5 (6/13, 5/13) 4 (5/13) 41 (5/13) 21 (5/13) 12 (6/13) 13 (6/13) 5 (6/13, 5/13) 3 (6/13)

Q. 29

Do you support or oppose passing an amendment to the state constitution to allow non-Indian, Las Vegas style casinos to be built in New York? NOT ENOUGH INFORMATION/ DATE SUPPORT OPPOSE DONT KNOW/NO OPINION June 2013 49 40 11 May 2013 53 37 10 April 2013 49 44 7 March 2013 46 43 11 February 2013 48 42 10 January 2013 52 43 5 August 2012 52 38 9 HIGHEST EVER 53 (5/13, 1/12) 49 (3/12) 11 (6/13, 3/13) LOWEST EVER 46 (3/13) 37 (5/13) 3 (3/12)

Siena College Poll Trends June 2013


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Q. 30 While the proposed constitutional amendment would allow for seven casinos to be built in New York, Governor Cuomo has proposed that initially only three casinos all in upstate New York be built. Do you support or oppose the Governors proposal to initially build only three casinos, all upstate? DATE June 2013 May 2013 April 2013 March 2013 February 2013 January 2013 HIGHEST EVER LOWEST EVER Q. 31 SUPPORT 54 53 51 50 51 57 57 (1/13) 50 (3/13) OPPOSE DONT KNOW/NO OPINION 40 6 41 6 44 5 43 8 42 7 40 3 44 (4/13) 8 (3/13) 40 (6/13, 1/13) 3 (1/13)

The State Department of Environmental Conservation is expected to soon issue a decision on whether or not to allow hydrofracking that is the proposed method to recover natural gas from parts of upstate New York to move forward. How much have you heard or read about it a great deal, some, not very much, or nothing at all? DATE June 2013 May 2013 April 2013 March 2013 February 2013 January 2013 December 2012 October 2012 August 2012 HIGHEST EVER LOWEST EVER A GREAT DEAL SOME NOT VERY MUCH NOTHING DONT KNOW/NO OPINION 35 34 13 19 0 32 29 20 19 0 32 32 18 19 0 32 32 21 15 0 26 34 22 18 0 31 33 18 17 0 27 36 20 17 0 27 39 21 12 0 28 35 22 15 1 35 (6/13) 39 (10/12) 22 (2/13, 8/12) 20 (5/12) 1 (8/12) 27 (12/12, etc.) 29 (5/13) 13 (6/13) 12 (10/12) 0 (many)

Q. 32

Do you support or oppose the Department of Environmental Conservation allowing hydrofracking to move forward in parts of upstate New York? NOT ENOUGH INFORMATION/ DATE SUPPORT OPPOSE DONT KNOW/NO OPINION June 2013 37 44 18 May 2013 39 41 20 April 2013 40 45 15 March 2013 39 43 18 February 2013 40 40 20 January 2013 40 44 16 December 2012 42 36 22 October 2012 42 36 23 August 2012 39 38 23 HIGHEST EVER 42 (12/12, 10/12) 45 (4/13) 27 (5/12) LOWEST EVER 37 (6/13, 5/12) 36 (12/12, 10/12, 5/12) 15 (4/13) Do you support or oppose creating a system of public campaign financing in New York that would limit the size of political contributions to candidates and use state money to match smaller contributions made to candidates for state offices? NOT ENOUGH INFORMATION/ DATE SUPPORT OPPOSE DONT KNOW/NO OPINION June 2013 61 33 6 May 2013 57 34 9 March 2013 61 33 6 January 2013 59 36 5 August 2012 55 31 14 HIGHEST EVER 61 (6/13, 3/13) 36 (1/13) 14 (8/12) LOWEST EVER 55 (8/12) 31 (8/12) 5 (1/13)

Q. 33

Siena College Poll Trends June 2013


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Q. 1 Is New York State on the right track, or is it headed in the wrong direction? DATE June 2013 May 2013 April 2013 March 2013 February 2013 January 2013 December 2012 October 2012 August 2012 July 2012 HIGHEST EVER LOWEST EVER RIGHT TRACK WRONG DIRECTION DONT KNOW/NO OPINION 48 42 10 49 44 7 48 42 10 50 42 8 55 35 9 57 33 10 55 32 13 53 35 11 56 33 10 53 36 11 57 (1/13) 76 (10/31/10) 30 (1/07) 14 (10/10) 26 (1/07) 7 (5/13)

Poll Trend Notes:

All surveys are of registered voters except for the polls of August and October 2012, October 2010, September and October 2008, and September and October 2006, which are polls of likely voters. Trends reflect questions asked at least twice since the first Siena College Poll in February 2005. Results listed here include all times questions have been asked since July 2012. Highest Ever and Lowest Ever is provided at the bottom of each question.