You are on page 1of 7

PT.

ASTAKA DODOL
Head Office : Wisma BSG Lantai 7, Jln. Abdul Muis No. 40 Jakarta Pusat 10160 Telp: 021-34833103 (hunting) Fax: 021-34833102 Site Office : Wisma Pramuka Blok A No.1 Sekayu, Kab. Musi Banyuasin, Propinsi Sumatera Selatan Telp: 0714-323125 Fax: 0714-323125

CHAPTER X PROJECTS ECONOMIC ANALYSYS

Project economic analysis is an integral part of the scope of activities of Pre-feasibility study to determine the feasibility of its economic side. 10.1. Assumptions Factor Economic analysis projects coal power plant 2 x 300 MW In Babat Toman, Banyuasin district based on several assumptions as follows: a. Major equipment costs Estimates are based on the price of the main equipment prices in 2005 from a variety of local vendors and foreign vendors. In Table 10.1 shows the estimated cost of major equipment investment includes the cost of engineering including the feasibility study and supervision design. Table 10.1. Details of the estimated construction cost of 2 x 300 MW power plant NO. 1 ITEM Engineering work Feasibility Study Design and Supevision Major Equipment Steam Turbine Boiler Cooler System Pengolahan Air Plant elctrical US$ 80.000 1.120.000 13.505.000 3.500.000 4.100.000 2.000.000 400.000 1.800.000 US$ 1.200.000

2.

Chapter X- Economic analysis of Power Plant 2x300 MW

X-1

PT. ASTAKA DODOL


Head Office : Wisma BSG Lantai 7, Jln. Abdul Muis No. 40 Jakarta Pusat 10160 Telp: 021-34833103 (hunting) Fax: 021-34833102 Site Office : Wisma Pramuka Blok A No.1 Sekayu, Kab. Musi Banyuasin, Propinsi Sumatera Selatan Telp: 0714-323125 Fax: 0714-323125

Intrumentation & Control General Facility BOP (ME 3. Integration) Contruction & Commissioning 4. (Inc.Insurance) Overhead Sub TOTAL TAX 10% TOTAL

500.000 663.000 442.000

500.000 265.000 265.000 15.970.000 1.597.000 17.567.000

Description above fee covers the cost of testing, packing, shipping, transportation to the domestic equipment, and insurance locations, but does not include the cost of imports (imports Study) 10.2. Coal Specification Coal fuel used for simulation project economics using the following assumptions: Calorific value: 5,000 kcal / kg Coal consumption: 5.6 kg / kWh Price of coal: 10 -15 cent U.S. $ / ton Specifications as Table 3.1 in Chapter III. 10.3. Financial structure Table 10.2. shows the assumptions for the financial structure for the construction of 2 x 300 MW power plant. Description above fee covers the cost of testing, packing, shipping, transportation to the domestic equipment, and insurance locations, but does not include the cost of imports (imports Study)

Tabel 10.2 Financial Structure

Chapter X- Economic analysis of Power Plant 2x300 MW

X-2

PT. ASTAKA DODOL


Head Office : Wisma BSG Lantai 7, Jln. Abdul Muis No. 40 Jakarta Pusat 10160 Telp: 021-34833103 (hunting) Fax: 021-34833102 Site Office : Wisma Pramuka Blok A No.1 Sekayu, Kab. Musi Banyuasin, Propinsi Sumatera Selatan Telp: 0714-323125 Fax: 0714-323125

USD

Portio n

Intere st

Perio d (year s)

Note

3,736.52 23.1% Equity Bank Loan Total 11,536.9 71.5% 8 15,273.5 0 Bank Loan Items Investme 11.213,8 97,2% nt 7 6,0% 8,5 Incl.gra ce period:1 Working Capital 323,11 2,8% 6,0% 7,0 ,5 yrs Possibly < 5 yrs 6,0% 7-10 negotibl e

10.4. Investment Investment assumptions are given in table 10.3 of investment


Chapter X- Economic analysis of Power Plant 2x300 MW

X-3

PT. ASTAKA DODOL


Head Office : Wisma BSG Lantai 7, Jln. Abdul Muis No. 40 Jakarta Pusat 10160 Telp: 021-34833103 (hunting) Fax: 021-34833102 Site Office : Wisma Pramuka Blok A No.1 Sekayu, Kab. Musi Banyuasin, Propinsi Sumatera Selatan Telp: 0714-323125 Fax: 0714-323125

beyond the cost of the installation of transmission lines Table 10.3. Investment assumptions Invesment Item Land Acquisition Hard Cost Main Equipment Substation Intallation/Commiss ioning Civil Works Substotal Hard Cost Transmission Line Soft Cost 6,00% Value Added Tax 10,0% Sub Total HC +SC+VAT IDC Total Investment (Incl land) WORKING CAPITAL TOT.INVESTMENT + WC 15.573.3 00 327.427 15.712.9 83 430.817 16.143.8 01 INVESTMENT (EXCL TRANSMISSION) 1.302,25 149.909,1 8 2.783,13 152.792,3 0 4.200,27 156.992,7 7 USD/kW 0 0 13.505.0 00 0 1.000.0 00 14.505.0 00 0 131.673,7 5 0 9.750,00 141.423,7 5 0,00 USD 10.526 Million Rp 100,0

Chapter X- Economic analysis of Power Plant 2x300 MW

X-4

PT. ASTAKA DODOL


Head Office : Wisma BSG Lantai 7, Jln. Abdul Muis No. 40 Jakarta Pusat 10160 Telp: 021-34833103 (hunting) Fax: 021-34833102 Site Office : Wisma Pramuka Blok A No.1 Sekayu, Kab. Musi Banyuasin, Propinsi Sumatera Selatan Telp: 0714-323125 Fax: 0714-323125

Note: 1. Soft Cost = Design engineering & Training Supervission + + + Pre Operational Training Operational Cost = 1,200,000,00 USD 2. VAT 10% only for EPC and Transmission Line 3. Total Invesrment (Included Transmisson Line = $ 1,302.25 / kW 4. General Adm Million / month, 13 months / years = Rp. 120 (salaries) 5. Labour Rp. 60 (direct labor) 6. Over head million / month, 12 month / yrs (rent. Transport, communication 25 etc.) 7. Insurance 0.3% pa.of.investment value 10.5. Production Table 10.4. Production showed some assumptions as follows: Table 10.4. Production assumptions 1. Generating Capacity 2. Capacity Factor 3. Elect. Sales to PLN 4. Elect. Sales to Industries 5. Coal Pries 6. Coal Consumtion 7. Operating & Maintenance Value 600 0,80 4,50-5,50 6,00 10,00 15,00 5,8 0,75 Unit MW

100% 0,0%

Cent USD/kWh Cent USD/kWh USD/Ton Kg /kWh Cent USD/kWh

Chapter X- Economic analysis of Power Plant 2x300 MW

X-5

PT. ASTAKA DODOL


Head Office : Wisma BSG Lantai 7, Jln. Abdul Muis No. 40 Jakarta Pusat 10160 Telp: 021-34833103 (hunting) Fax: 021-34833102 Site Office : Wisma Pramuka Blok A No.1 Sekayu, Kab. Musi Banyuasin, Propinsi Sumatera Selatan Telp: 0714-323125 Fax: 0714-323125

10.6. Economical Analysis Results Economic simulation results for two kinds of coal prices are shown in the following table. The analysis showed that the coal price 10 USD / ton the price of electricity 4.5 Cent USD / kWh are expected to achieve an IRR of 9.5% with a payback period of 8 years and 11 months. This scenario will change when the price of coal and electricity price changes. Economic prospects will decline to the high
16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 4.5 12.1 13.2 14.3 10 US$/T 15 US$/T 20US$/T

coal prices the price

10.8
9.4

of

4.75

5.25

5.5

electricity is low.

IRR (%)

Harga Jual Listrik (c US$)

Figure 10.4. Electricity Selling Price influence on IRR In Figure 10.5. Show back period of capital for a variety of conditions as the price of the above assumptions.

Chapter X- Economic analysis of Power Plant 2x300 MW

X-6

PT. ASTAKA DODOL


Head Office : Wisma BSG Lantai 7, Jln. Abdul Muis No. 40 Jakarta Pusat 10160 Telp: 021-34833103 (hunting) Fax: 021-34833102 Site Office : Wisma Pramuka Blok A No.1 Sekayu, Kab. Musi Banyuasin, Propinsi Sumatera Selatan Telp: 0714-323125 Fax: 0714-323125

16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0

PAYBACK (THN)
13.7 11.2 10 9 9 7.3 8.8 8.1 6.4 8.6 7 6

10 US$/T 15 US$/T 20 US$/T

7.8 6.6 5.8

4.75

5.25

HARGA JUAL LISTRIK (C US$)

Figure 10.5. Effect of Electricity Selling Price Period Return of Capital

Based on economical Analysis on the description above, showed promising economic projects for coal prices fairly low. The analysis showed that for coal price 10 USD / ton the price of electricity by 4.5 Cent USD / kWh are expected to achieve an IRR of 9.4% with a payback period of 9 years. Scenario will change if the price of coal and electricity price changes. Economic prospects will decline to the high coal prices the price of electricity is low. The best conditions are when the high price of electricity with coal prices as low as possible. Coal prices may be reduced up to 7 to 8 U.S. $ per ton (prediction), because of the location of mine-mouth coal power plant right in the mouth mine of Babat Toman. The cost of transportation of coal from the stockpile to the expected location of the power plant is less than 3-5 U.S. $ per ton, while coal mining production costs no more than U.S. $ 5 per ton

Chapter X- Economic analysis of Power Plant 2x300 MW

X-7