1 CHAPTER I

INTRODUCTION

1.

British influence and control over what would become Nigeria and Africa's

most populous country grew through the 19th century. A series of constitutions after World War II granted Nigeria greater autonomy; independence came in 1960. Following nearly 16 years of military rule, a new constitution was adopted in 1999, and a peaceful transition to civilian government was completed. The government continues to face the daunting task of reforming a petroleum-based economy, whose revenues have been squandered through corruption and mismanagement, and institutionalizing democracy. In addition, Nigeria continues to experience

longstanding ethnic and religious tensions. Although both the 2003 and 2007 presidential elections were marred by significant irregularities and violence, Nigeria is currently experiencing its longest period of civilian rule since independence. The

2 general elections of April 2007 marked the first civilian-to-civilian transfer of power in the country's history. In January 2010, Nigeria assumed a nonpermanent seat on the UN Security Council for the 2010-11 term. National Aim 2. The fundamental aim of Nigeria is to realize through the democratic process a

socialist society, free from exploitation; a society in which the rule of law, fundamental human rights and freedom, equality and political, economic and social justice will be secured for all citizens. National Aspirations 3. Nigeria aspires for the following:(a) Reform to Governance. By bringing in not only competent people to

run the government at the top, but also changing the civil servant set up from the bottom up. This includes reduction in civil servants who have very strong hold and are highly corrupt. (b) Improve Economic Prospects. Improve economic prospects so as to

restore economic growth and create new jobs every year. It also needs to reduce its budget deficit which is increasing every year. (c) Fight Corruption. By committing itself to a “Zero tolerance” policy and

introducing reforms. (d) Clean Up the Judiciary. The state has to initiate steps to clean up

the judiciary for better governance and instilling confidence in the general public. (e) Strengthen Democracy and Human Rights. Promote and strengthen

democracy. (j) Provision of Basic Necessities. Provision of basic

necessities through planned economic growth and thus strengthen the social fabric of the society. (k) Rural and Agricultural Development. Rural Development and

agricultural revolution by bringing about radical transformation in the rural areas by promoting agricultural revolution. (l) Education. Promote education by making it free and compulsory.

3 (m) Public Health and Morality. The death rate and the HIV

percentage is quite high and needs to be curtailed on priority. Aim of the Paper 4. The aim of this paper is to carry out a strategic appraisal of Nigeria in relation

to its internal and external environment so as to evaluate its strengths weaknesses, opportunities and threats and carry out net assessment of the country. Preview 5. The study has been carried out under the following parts:(a) (b) (c) (d) (e) Chapter II : Internal Scan. Chapter IIII : External- Regional Scan. Chapter IV : External – Global Scan. Chapter V : SWOT Analysis. Chapter VI : National Security Scenarios Analysis (Analysis of Alternate

National Security Futures). (f) Chapter VII : Net Assessment and Preferred National Security

Strategies. (g) Chapter VIII : Issues of Relevance and Concern to IOR and South

Asian Nations and India.

Five major geographic divisions: low coastal zone along Gulf of Guinea. 923. High humidity in south February-November. low humidity during dry season. Society 7. (a) Population.419meters). (c) Topography. Nigeria represents about 20 percent of . Niger (north).200 meters. Mean maximum temperatures of 30-32ºC (south). The size of its population is one of Nigeria's most significant and distinctive features. No demarcation reached regarding Nigeria-Chad-Niger. Geography.Cameroon boundary in Lake Chad. broad stepped plateau stretching to northern border with highest elevations over 1. which includes country's highest point (2. Chad (northeast). and Benin (west). mountainous zone along eastern border. (d) Nigeria is divided roughly in three by the rivers Niger and Benue. succeeded northward by hills and low plateaus. (e) Climate. leading to disputes. which flow through the country from north-east and north-west to meet roughly in the centre of the country near the new capital Abuja. 33-35ºC (north).000 millimeters in coastal zone (Niger Delta averages over 3. From here the united rivers flow south to the sea at the Niger delta area.768 square kilometers.4 CHAPTER II INTERNAL SCAN Base 6. June-September in north. Egypt. With probably more than 149 million people (Jul 2010 estimates)--Nigeria's population is about twice the size of that of the next largest country in Africa. Boundaries. Annual rainfall decreases northward. Tropical with variations governed by interaction of moist southwest monsoon and dry northeast winds. Niger-Benue river valley. about 2. inland frontiers shared with Cameroon (east). Southern limits set by Gulf of Guinea. (a) (b) Size.550 millimeters). 500 to 750 millimeters in north.

however. About 70 percent of all Nigerians were still living in farming villages in 1990. however. One-sixth of the urban population.5 the total population of sub-Saharan Africa. Number of languages estimated at 350 to 400. (e) Social Structure. although the rural dwellers formed a shrinking proportion of the later force. Several other languages also recognized for primary education. It was among these people that ways of life . The civil war taught Nigerians that ethnic conflicts were among the most destructive forces in the life of the nation. The following are the most populous and politically influential: Hausa and Fulani 29%. Ijaw 10%. Population densities. exceed 400 inhabitants per kilometre. this figure grew to 48 percent. live in Lagos. Relations between ethnic groups remained a major problem for such a large and pluralistic society till 1990. 11 percent of the total population was classified as urban whereas in 2008. is composed of more than 250 ethnic groups. (b) Ethnic Groups. Classical Arabic of religious significance is spoken in the north. mass media. Igbo (Ibo) 18%. (d) Ethnic Relations. English official language used in government. The population is unevenly distributed. In 1952. Migration from rural to urban areas has accelerated in recent decades. or at least within identical regions and language groups. especially in the southwest near Lagos and the rich agricultural regions around Enugu and Owerri. By 1990 ethnic conflict was suppressed and carefully controlled so that any outbreak or seriously publicised discrimination on ethnic grounds was considered Even in the more cosmopolitan cities. Tiv 2. and education beyond primary school. Hausa is a major language in north. a large percentage of the total number live within several hundred kilometers of the coast but population is also dense along the northern river basin areas such as Kano and Sokoto.5%. Kanuri 4%. it appeared that marriages within the Christian and Muslim communities were increasingly trans-ethnic. many with dialects. Africa's most populous country. Most important: Hausa. Yoruba.5%. Ibibio 3. Yoruba 21%. In the late 1980s and early 1990s. Nigeria. or approximately 6 million people. large-scale business. (c) Languages. more than 90 percent of marriages were within rather than between ethnic units. and Igbo. Estimates of urban dwellers reveal this shift.

nepotism. as was often the case. but to qualify for secular jobs in the upper salary scale required at least secondary and. As ever greater numbers of people moved to a small number of rapidly expanding cities (or.1 percent in 1988 as a result of measures taken under the SAP. incomes. With the largest and one of the most rapidly growing cities in sub-Saharan Africa. Most of the unemployed were city dwellers. The present national unemployment rate is 4.3 percent in 1988. sold some cash. modest households whose members farmed. Western-style education was necessary. (f) Urbanisation. The most prestigious work in rural areas was that of public administration. Nigeria has experienced the phenomenon of urbanisation as thoroughly as any African nation. and bribery flourished in employment decisions.8 percent in 1987. Underemployed farm labour. the education system was turning out an increasing surplus of graduates.3 percent of the labour force in 1985.0 percent in 1987.6 remained deeply consistent with the past. such as teachers.crops. increasingly. Long years of Quranic learning continued to give high status in religious occupations. extension workers. In contemporary Nigeria as elsewhere. This was 4. veterinarians. before falling to 5. By the 1980s. increased to 5. and performed various kinds of non-farm work for cash income. (g) Labour. the fabric of life in both urban and rural areas changed in unforeseen ways. and the like. postsecondary schooling.3 percent in 1986 and 7. means to gain better income and rank. Under such conditions. 9. 9.9%. albeit not always sufficient. but its experience has also been unique. this remained the case in religious work. continued to be supported by the . postal officials. and lifestyles. as indicated by urban jobless rates of 8. People lived in small. often referred to as disguised unemployed. public works foremen. either as local traditional headmen and chiefs or as rural representatives of government departments.1 percent in 1986. but farmers often had a non-farm occupation to produce income during the non-growing season. smallholder farmers were the rule. African societies that had been predominantly rural for most of their history were experiencing a rapid and profound reorientation of their social and economic lives toward cities and urbanism.7 percent in 1985. In rural areas. district officers. and 7. ethnic favoritism. occupation differentiated people. a single main city).

with each as a minority faith in the other's region. Responsibility for secondary education is shared by federal and state governments and some private schools. the middle belt was more heterogeneous. Education has followed a varied pattern. Efforts to decrease unemployment were hampered by the dependence of the economy on petroleum. helping to accentuate regional and ethnic distinctions. Although an educated work force was useful in promoting technology and the professions. . nearly 35 percent as Christians. however. traditionally considered Christian and featuring Protestant and Africanized churches. in the recession of the late 1980s. primarily Christian south. and more than 18 percent as other (almost entirely adherents of indigenous religions). Nigeria had an unemployment rate for secondary school graduates of 35 to 40 percent. In the south. and therefore rural unemployment figures were less accurate than those for urban unemployment. (j) Education. In general. which provided a European-style education. but the middle belt has a mixture of Muslim and Christian adherents. Nigeria had a nationwide indigenous system in which English had come to be the language of instruction beyond primary school. and private and parochial schools in the cities. there is also a sizeable Muslim population. about 47 percent of population self-identified as Muslims (chiefly adherents of Sunni Islam). In addition. Religion has been pluralist. By 1992. traditional Quranic schools. dead ancestors. a potential source of unrest. and spirits of places. (h) Religion. The relatively high percentage of secondary school and university graduates in Nigeria represented both an asset and a liability to the economy. is practiced.7 family or village. both in the rural and urban areas of the north. especially in rural areas. traditional religion. such as the Aladura movement among the Yoruba and Roman Catholicism among the Igbo. characterized by worship of primordial spirits. In last officially accepted census. the country should be seen as having a predominantly Muslim north and a non-Muslim. Universal primary education (six-year program) is the responsibility of state and local governments. The far northern areas of Nigeria have commonly been considered Muslim. Several religions coexisted in Nigeria.

Shortage of medical facilities and physicians in rural areas existed. In the spring of 2008. Major prevalent diseases included cerebrospinal meningitis. Significant health progress had been made nationally. malaria. Lassa fever. Ijaw.1 percent of the population) were carriers of the virus that caused AIDS. and Kanuri languages and over 374 dialects within the ethnic groups. guinea worm. It is a mixture of the English Language and several indigenous Nigerian Languages.8 (k) Language. Babangida’s government launched a ‘Primary Health Care’ plan in 1987 designed to expand immunization and improve inadequate rural health facilities and the geographic mal-distribution of medical facilities. Health facilities were uneven in quality as of 1990. Medical establishments were owned by federal. Hausa-Fulani in the North and the Igbos in the East. There also exist other ethnic groups' languages such as Efik. yellow fever. One of the most challenging health problems of the early 1990s was the prevalence of acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS). and local governments and private groups. state.6 million Nigerians (nearly 3. acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS). There are 3 main indigenous languages spoken by the 3 predominant ethnic groups in Nigeria. . and malnutrition among young children. There is also the "broken English" (Pidgin English) spoken and understood by almost all Nigerians. Schistosomiasis. Onchocerciasis. the minister of health announced that about 2. Primary Health Care Plan launched in late 1980s. These are Yorubas in the west. including expanded immunization campaign. (l) Health. The official language is English.

Economic. Economic measures designed to raise the overall standard of living of Nigerians had to take into account the pluralistic nature of the society. the Hausa were the dominant group in the northern area. the country experienced perhaps the fastest growing urbanization in the world in the 1970s and had the largest total urban population of any state in subSaharan Africa.5 million barrels per day by 2010. it was difficult not to conclude that for the mass of the people at the lower income level. The search for employment drew males to the cities. followed by the Kanuri. 10. was its dependence on petroleum. poor health. as in the 1970s. and the elderly. The country contained between 250 and 400 ethnic groups. human rights organizations and anti-corruption campaigners. children. 9. with per capita income of US$2300. About 95% of the country’s crude production takes place through joint ventures between the state-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation and foreign oil companies. the Nupe and Tiv predominated in the middle belt. and overcrowded housing was perpetual problems. which accounted for 87 percent of export receipts and 77 percent of the federal government's current revenue in 1988. and the southern area was fragmented: the major groups being the Yoruba concentrated in the southwest and the Igbo in the southeast.9 (m) Welfare. Falling oil output and prices contributed to another noteworthy aspect of the economy in the 1980s--the decline in per capita real gross national product. Nigeria’s oil industry has received significant attention from environmental groups. Given the steady population growth and the decline in urban services and incomes since 1980. Nigeria has publicly stated its intention to grow its oil reserves to 40 billion bbl by 2010 and production capacity to 4. Nigeria’s oil accounts for 95 percent of foreign exchange earnings. 20 percent of GDP and 65 percent of budgetary revenues. Means 8. speaking about 400 languages. leaving most rural areas with a population composed largely of women. which persisted until oil prices began . malnutrition. Of these. Nigeria’s GDP in 2009 was US$339 billion. which is ranked at 182 in the world. Nigeria had no social security system. Welfare concerns in Nigeria were primarily related to its general lack of development and the effects on the society of the economic stringency of the 1980s. Whereas 80 percent of Nigeria's population in 1990 lived in farming villages. A major feature of Nigeria's economy in the 1980s.

Cameroon. national government expenditures rose from 9 percent in 1962 to 44 percent in 1979.10 to rise in 1990. As a percentage of gross domestic products. adding to the political pressure to expel more than 2 million illegal workers (mostly from Ghana. The economic collapse in the late 1970s and early 1980s contributed to substantial discontent and conflict between ethnic communities and nationalities. and extension services. In Nigeria. the Ministry of Education. Ethiopia. disregard of major discrepancies between financial and social profitability. Another relevant feature of the Nigerian economy was a series of abrupt changes in the government's share of expenditures. 11. the 1946-55 Ten-Year Plan of Development and Welfare and the 1955-60 plan (later extended to 1962). Chad. Niger. and high economic payoffs from directly productive investments. maintain infrastructure. state-level departments. such as accelerated growth and higher levels of average material welfare. Nigerian plans included economic forecasts. and Mali) for concessional aid from an affiliate. They discouraged increased taxes on the wealthy. Planning. but did increase incomes and the number of jobs that the governing elites could distribute to their clients. In the aftermath of the 1967-70 civil wars. the International Development Association (IDA). Expansion of the government's share of the economy did little to enhance its political and administrative capacity. This planning affected the policies of such agencies as the central bank. In 1989 the World Bank also declared Nigeria poor enough to be eligible (along with countries such as Bangladesh. were framed by colonial administrators. the objectives of the rolling plan were to reduce inflation and exchange rate instability. policies toward the private sector. and Chad) in early 1983 and May 1985. marketing boards. but fell to 17 percent in 1988. Plans did not constitute commitments by public departments to spend funds. 12. encompassing government policies to achieve national economic objectives. achieve agricultural self-sufficiency. 13. Nigeria's earliest national plans. however. state-owned enterprises. Its authors favored decentralized decision making by private units. and a list of proposed public expenditures. After 1960. Nigeria's government became more centralized. and advocated a conservative monetary . The oil boom of the 1970s provided the tax revenue to strengthen the central government further. development planning had a broad scope. and reduce the burden of structural adjustment on the most vulnerable social groups.

oil had replaced cocoa. openness to foreign trade and investment. In 1975 production fell sharply as a result of the sudden decrease in world demand. Nigeria fully supported OPEC policies. 15." Much of the revenue was intended for investment to diversify the economy. implementing structural reforms. and palm products as the country's biggest foreign exchange earner.11 and fiscal policy emphasizing a relatively small plan. coming in the midst of widespread unemployment. The First National Development Plan charted Nigeria's transition from an essentially agricultural economy to a mixed economy based on agricultural expansion and limited industrial growth. Economic Development. By the late 1960s. After the civil war. the FMG moved to resurrect the six-year development plan inaugurated in 1962. This program focused on four pillars: improving macroeconomic stability. which now accounts for more than 60% of GDP. At the end of 2006. Following years of economic stagnation. strengthening public expenditure management.4bn to liquidate balances owed to the London Club of creditors. . and prices moved downward until late in the year when OPEC intervened to raise prices. and reliance on overseas assistance. In 1971 Nigeria--by then the world's seventh-largest petroleum producer--became a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Government was heavily involved in the economy because locally generated private investment was unable to generate sufficient capital for development. and reforming public institutions. underscored inequities in distribution. 14. Foreign aid was set at one-half of public sector investment. Nigeria embarked on a comprehensive reform program (the National Economic Empowerment and Development Strategy) during the second term (2003-2007) of the Obasanjo administration. Importantly. The dramatic rise in world oil prices in 1974 caused a sudden flood of wealth that can be described as "dynamic chaos. peanuts. lower interest rates and financial sector consolidation have also produced significant gains in the non-oil sector. New development plans were instituted in 1970 and 1975. but it also spurred inflation and. but the goals set in all three plans proved unrealistic. the Nigerian Parliament approved an additional expenditure of US$1. The fiscal space created by these debt relief exercises will be used to finance increased investments in infrastructure and poverty reduction.

Nigerian agriculture benefited from the rise in prices that resulted from crop failures in other parts of the Sahel. Skilled workers were reluctant to leave the east in search of work. the drought influenced policy decisions about the necessity of promoting irrigation schemes and reforestation. improving the infrastructure with particular reference to increasing electric power generation. they reflected a pattern in the world economic situation. Large numbers of farm workers. 18. where the economy still was recovering from the effects of the war. reducing dependence on oil. but the popular imagination blamed corruption and mismanagement and held the Gowon regime responsible. The major goals of economic development were integrating agriculture and industry more closely. Nigeria. including privatization or commercialization of a number of ‘Parastatals’ and government-owned enterprises. Unemployment reached its highest levels in the crowded Igbo areas in the east. however. while school graduates and dropouts flooded the labor market at a rate of 600. Unemployment constituted an increasingly serious problem.12 16. and east far more than Nigeria. In the short run. enlarging and modernizing communications systems. and creating an effective national planning body. for the most part lacked the capital necessary for large-scale development and depended upon foreign loans to implement its programs. . banking. Famine conditions also prevailed in some parts of the north of Nigeria. To some extent. north. remained in the cities even if they failed to find jobs. privatization measures had taken effect in such areas as agriculture. and telecommunications. who had gone to urban areas in search of higher wages. but considerable numbers of refugees poured into Nigeria from Niger. The drought and resulting famine affected the Sahel countries to the west. These economic problems assumed an imposing political dimension. By the end of 1991. although eventually the shortage of skilled workers in other parts of the country began to have its effect in overcoming Igbo fears.000 a year in the mid-1970s. but they lacked training. The regime also had to deal with a severe drought that struck the northern states between 1972 and 1974. 17. railroads. and performing needed maintenance on existing transportation systems. Substantial increases in public-sector employment promised to absorb some of the soldiers. however. The dangers involved in discharging large numbers of soldiers who had no job prospects made demobilization of the costly military establishment undesirable. In the long run. The drought was the most serious since that of 1913-14.

Cash crops include cocoa. With Soviet assistance. Heavy investment was planned in steel production. a steel mill was developed at Ajaokuta in Kwara State. Petroleum products accounted for two-thirds of the energy consumed in 1990. 34 million hectares.8 percent of GDP in 2008. yams. Forestry. Agriculture represented 18. Fisheries catch did not meet domestic needs and therefore modernization projects are underway. of facilities to enable the export of liquefied natural gas from Bonny. 22. corn and rice. and Fishing. which was scheduled to increase oil production by one-third. representing around 2% of GDP. 21. The expansion came. wood. On a smaller scale was a European currency unit (ECU) 48 million loan from the European Investment Bank under the Third Lomé Convention for the development of palm oil refining facilities. Primary processing industries are palm oil. peanuts and major food crops are cassava. Petroleum. Kano. an oil condensate project at Oso on the Niger Delta coast. 18 million hectares of pastureland. cement. The 1991 drought forced substantial increase in food imports. millet. and the planned construction. and small appliances. chemical products. sweet potatoes. beginning in 1992. despite its efforts to diversify its economy. not far from Abuja. The Industry constituted 50. Expansion also resulted from the renovation of oil refineries at Warri and Kaduna. but Nigeria also had substantial . In addition. Nigeria was expanding its oil production. cotton. goats. and Energy Resources. poultry. rubber. hides and skins. camels. ceramics. Mining. Agriculture. and Bauchi under the World Bank. building materials. Forests were used extensively. sorghum. pigs. footwear. taro. The most significant negative sign was the decline of industry associated with agriculture. and government engaged in afforestation projects. Livestock consists of cattle. rubber.13 19.1 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2008. petroleum. the development of petrochemical plants. 20 million hectares of forests. textiles. Industry. palm oil. horses. begun with Soviet funding and subsequently funded by the World Bank. Among other major development projects that Nigeria was pursuing was the large Ajaokuta steelworks. peanuts. Sokoto. Manufacturing industries consist of food products. through the discovery of an offshore field near Akwa Ibom. sheep. but largescale irrigation projects were launched in the states of Borno. In 1990. most notably. 20. or 42 percent of arable land was under cultivation.

food.19%. peanuts. 24. In 2009. UK 4. Nigeria's major exports in the early 1990s continued to be primary products such as cocoa and. and largely had been replaced by diesel oil except in a few industrial establishments. Naira (N). only a fraction of 1 percent of Nigeria's commercially produced energy. Nigeria has negative trade balance. Twenty-nine other airports with paved runways exist. South Korea 5. Brazil 9. 27. India 10. Nigerian Railway Corporation declared bankruptcy in 1988 and system in serious operational difficulties. 23. Three airports which handle international flights are Murtala Muhammad International at Lagos. In addition to petroleum. Civil Aviation. Spain 7. Nigeria’s major export partners were US 35. 28. Machinery. charcoal.000 kilometers gravel. On the other hand.32%. transportation equipment.067 meter) track. most cooking was done with wood fuels.88%. but China emerged as Nigeria's largest single source of imports. originally mined as fuel for railroads. 29. and Port Harcourt. 25. Railroads.000 kilometers paved.000 tons in 1958 to 73. Major Trading Partners.14 resources in the form of hydroelectricity. average exchange rate is N150.000 tons in 1986. wood. Roads. Netherlands 8.89%. US 8. 25. In 2008. In 2008.500 kilometers of narrow-gauge (1. 26.48 per US$1. and lignite. cotton. Coal. The United States replaced Britain in the later 1980s as Nigeria's best customer. of which 30. Most state capitals and large towns accessible by paved road. 193200 kilometers of roads. rest unimproved earth. Exports. chemicals.19% and France 4. 3. the major countries countries from whom Nigeria imported are China 14. Coal production fell from 940.65%. to a lesser degree.08%. In 1990 a law was passed banning the export of cocoa beans in order to promote domestic processing. manufactured goods.00. Aminu Kano International at Kano. and live animals. .63% and France 4. Nigeria was unable to process all the cocoa beans produced. sub bituminous coal. and palm oil products. This law caused concern because despite various projects for establishing processing plants.43%. 1 naira = 100 kobo. In the 1980s. Currency. Imports. although in urban areas petroleum use increased.46%.18%.

Nigeria continues to experience longstanding ethnic and religious tensions. 32. A timetable was established for a series of elections at the local government area. and Burutu. whose revenues have been squandered through corruption and mismanagement. Also 65 AM radio stations and various television stations are operational. and an independent judiciary. The general elections of April 2007 marked the first civilian-to-civilian transfer of power in the country's history. Some attractions include numerous waterfalls. Although both the 2003 and 2007 presidential elections were marred by significant irregularities and violence. two legislative houses. with many tourist potentials waiting to be tapped. 31. near Port Harcourt. 34. At first. A series of constitutions after World War II granted Nigeria greater autonomy. independence came in 1960. The government continues to face the daunting task of reforming a petroleum-based economy. Tourism. Nigeria is currently experiencing its longest period of civilian rule since independence. Delta (including Warri and Sapele on Niger River). Ports. Government. and institutionalizing democracy. Calabar (on Cross River) is a major eastern port. officeholders in any previous government were barred from holding . Evolution of the Government. one based on population and the other on states. Nigeria is the place to visit. state. The 1989 constitution that Nigeria adopted as the basis for its transition to democratic government was modeled on the United States federal system. In addition. Three major complexes which handle majority of cargo are Lagos (including Apapa and Tin Can Island). Nigeria is a tourist’s delight with sunshine all year round. and Rivers (including Port Harcourt). Political 33. Communications. near Warri. friendly and warm people and locations featuring some of the spectacular wonders of nature. a new constitution was adopted in 1999. Telecommunications is being expanded with domestic satellite system linked with most urban areas. It provided for a president. the Argungu fishing festival and hundreds of beaches on her 350 mile long coastline.15 30. and a peaceful transition to civilian government was completed. Crude oil is exported through Bonny. Following nearly 16 years of military rule. British influence and control over what would become Nigeria and Africa's most populous country grew through the 19th century. and national levels.

A major cause of political conflict in Nigeria since independence has been the changing formula for allocating revenue by region or state. the urban poor roughly doubled in number. From 1960 to 1978. During the same period. On August 27. "a little to the left of center. In the 1970s. although the rate of urban poverty also probably declined." and the Social Democratic Party. was designed to create parties that would cross ethnic. the number of rural poor remained constant. The rapid growth of petroleum revenue in the 1970s removed most of the severe constraints placed on federal and regional or state budgets in the 1960s.16 office in an attempt to eliminate corruption and undue political influence however. "a little to the right of center. Outbreaks of violence caused by religious tensions resulting in losses of life have occurred in the past in 1991 and 1992. the number of states was increased from twenty-one to thirty. Government Finance. 35.December 1991 the ban was lifted. there have been ethnic and religious tensions arising among the multitudinous groups in the country. 1991. making only Babangida ineligible. In 1973 the commodity export marketing boards. Before 1959 all revenues from mineral and agricultural products were retained by the producing region. and socioeconomic lines. religious. but the rural poverty rate declined. the federal government was freed to distribute more to the states." This action. Although wealth appeared to be highly concentrated in Nigeria. which generated considerable controversy. But after 1959. in mid. the government had no comprehensive income-distribution estimates. which had been a source of political power for the states. The move of the federal capital from Lagos to Abuja in December 1991 resulted not only from the tremendous overcrowding and pressure on transportation and other infrastructure facilities in Lagos but also from the desire to locate the capital in a central area that lacked association with a particular ethnic group. . regional. Desire for ethnic self-assertion and for the power and financial wherewithal resulting from statehood has largely constituted the basis for the creation of new states. was brought under federal control. the region retained only a fraction of the revenue from mineral production. Among the difficulties involved in encouraging the democratic process. thus strengthening federal power as well as the states' fiscal positions. In 1989 Babangida also rejected the applications of all political entities to be recognized as political parties and instead in October 1989 created two parties: the Republican National Convention.

Judicial System. 80. Army.000. together with a large-scale restructuring of the armed forces beginning in 1990. armed forces totalled at least 94.17 36. constitution of 1979. 41. in addition to several attempted coups.000. 37. legislative enactments. Draft constitution of 1989 to take effect at start of Third Republic. The military is responsible for protecting the country in the event of war and the President automatically becomes the Commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces. There are no organised reserves with service entirely voluntary. Supreme Court had original jurisdiction in constitutional disputes. federal courts of appeal. Federal Capital Territory of Abuja projected to become partially operational as national capital in 1991 as federal departments transfer from Lagos. peacekeeper. 9. The size of the armed forces reflected not only Nigeria's expanse but also the domestic instability the country had experienced since achieving independence in 1960. National Security 39. Thirty states divided into local councils. He also appoints officers to the following top positions: (a) (b) (c) (d) (e) 40. Navy. occurred in preparation for civilian government under the transition to the third republic. 5.500. Administrative Divisions. Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) Chief of Army Staff (COAS) Chief of Naval Staff (CNS) Chief of Air Staff (CAS) National Security Adviser (NSA) In 2008. This process.000 personnel during the civil war to about 80. Customary and Muslim Sharia law recognized in personal status matters. In the period between 1966 and 1985. . and decrees of military government in effect.000 in 1991. and Air Force. The President is the number one officer in the military and has the power to call up and give orders to the military. and mediator has emerged at the same time that the country's army was being drastically reduced from approximately 250.000.500 with components of Forces. Federal system included Supreme Court. and federal high courts. Legal system based on English common law modified by Nigerian rulings. Nigeria's role as an African regional leader. Nigeria underwent no less than six coups d'état. Additional cuts were projected in order to bring the forces to approximately 60.

National Intelligence Agency for foreign intelligence and counterintelligence.5% of GDP. transports. Army had two mechanized infantry divisions. chief of staff. Security services were reorganized in 1986 into State Security Service for domestic intelligence.000) and Quick Intervention Force in each state. military spending decreased from 80 percent to less than one percent of GNP.000 and 152. Diversified military procurement sources included Italy. Major Tactical Units. and five transport squadrons. 45. It has on its inventory of more than 260 aircraft. Between 1977 and 1987. 43.18 42. one maritime reconnaissance squadron. and police inspector general. minister of internal affairs. . Nigeria has a small but important domestic defense industry. Britain. and one airborne division.000. one armored division. Major Military Suppliers. Size of national police (Nigeria Police Force) variously estimated at between 20. and Defence Intelligence Agency for military intelligence. United States. corvettes. Security Forces. and Eastern Europe. The Navy which is equipped with modern fleet of frigates. Germany. In 2006 defense budget was 1. it has Port Security Police (total about 12. 44. Also. The air force tactical command had three interceptor/strike squadrons. organized into seven area commands under Nigeria Police Council that included president. and patrol craft defend territorial waters and is developing amphibious warfare capability. Military Costs.

in 1975. 48. Nigeria announced to a bewildered international community that she was launching a nuclear program of "unlimited scope" of her own. it offered more than rhetoric to the African National Congress (ANC) by taking a committed tough line with regard to the racist regime and their incursions in southern Africa. Sam Nujoma's SWAPO movement in Namibia. the new General Olusegun Obasanjo's military regime made a donation of $20 million dollars to the Zimbabwean liberation movement. Though Nigeria never sent an expeditionary force in that struggle. 47. That support tipped the balance in their favor. In 1977. Similarly. the local operations of Barclays Bank was nationalized after that bank ignored the strong protests by Nigeria urging it not to buy the South African government bond. Nigeria also sent military equipment to Mozambique to help the new independent country suppress the South African backed RENAMO guerrillas. Nigeria quickly committed itself to the liberation struggles going on in the Southern Africa sub-region. a member of the English Commonwealth of Nations. which led to OAU recognition of the MPLA. Nigeria is known to have also provided secret military training at the Kaduna first mechanized army division and provided other material support to Joshua Nkomo and Robert Mugabe's guerrilla forces during the Rhodesian Bush War(Renamed Zimbabwe in 1979) of independence against white minority rule of Prime Minister Ian Douglas Smith which was armed and financed by the regime in South Africa. . Nigeria extended diplomatic support to another Marxist cause. Although officially denied by the Nigerian government. 49.19 CHAPTER III EXTERNAL REGIONAL SCAN 46. war broke out in Angola after the country gained independence from Portugal. To demonstrate her seriousness against multi-national companies in Nigeria that violated the economic/trade embargo on the racist South African regime. to stall the apartheid South African installed puppet government in Namibia. mobilized its diplomatic influence in Africa in support of the MPLA. Upon gaining independence. Although her economy and technology could not have supported it. Nigeria.

There had been occasional border disputes with Chad and Cameroon. Organization of African Unity (OAU) .the Alhaji Shehu Shagari government urged the visiting Pontiff Pope John Paul II to grant audience to the leaders of Southern Africa guerrilla organisations Oliver Tambo of the ANC and Sam Nujoma of SWAPO.Nigeria has played a central role in the ECOWAS efforts to end the civil war in Liberia and contributed the bulk of the ECOWAS peacekeeping forces sent there in 1990. In 1982.20 50. and military action against these neighbors was contemplated by the civilian government in 1982 and 1983. In December 1983. with most of which it had bilateral agreements. In pursuing the goal of regional economic cooperation and development. Nonaligned Movement.now African Union [AU]. the new Major General Muhammadu Buhari regime announced that Nigeria could no longer afford an activist anti-colonial role in Africa. Nigeria is a member of the following international organizations: United Nations and several of its special and related agencies. several other West African bodies. Nigeria also has provided the bulk of troops for ECOMOG forces in Sierra Leone. 52. Another problem arose in the early 1980s. Nigeria also has taken the lead in articulating the views of developing nations on the need for modification of the existing international economic order. Nigeria and West Africa 51. Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). Niger. The Babangida regime joined the Organisation of the Islamic Conference (OIC). Nigeria helped create ECOWAS. Nigeria has enjoyed generally good relations with its immediate neighbors. Nigeria had cordial relations with all its neighbors--Benin. Chad. Commonwealth. Organization of African Trade Union Unity (OATUU). which seeks to harmonize trade and investment practices for its 16 West African member countries and ultimately to achieve a full customs union. Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). when Nigeria decided to expel many . Cameroon. Nigeria also nationalized the British Petroleum (BP) for supplying oil to South Africa. and Equatorial Guinea--as well as with other countries in the West African subregion. Relations with Neighbours 53. though President Obasanjo has indicated he might reconsider Nigeria's membership.

Angolan-Nigerian relations are primarily based on their roles as oil exporting nations. in spite of competing allegiances to rival organizations within the subcontinent. For example. and strengthening West Africa’s bargaining positions vis-à-vis the EEC. 54. political. the largest rebel group in Nigeria. mainly Ghanaians. Attorney General João Maria de Sousa . the African Union and other multilateral organizations. 56. Burkina Faso and Mali. In this spirit. the African Union and other multilateral organizations. Nigeria championed the formation of ECOWAS and. but this dispute also was resolved amicably. In January 2008. are cooperative and sturdy. Angolan President José Eduardo dos Santos agreed to extradite Okah on 21 November. partly because Nigeria still uses capital punishment and Angolan law forbids extraditing suspects to nations in which they may face the punishment of death. The Angolan government arrested Henry Okah. in September 2007 on arms trafficking charges. Both are members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. and economic survival. Angola and Nigeria have not signed an extradition treaty. thus serving such security interests as weakening colonial divisions within West Africa. the spokesman of the Movement for the Emancipation of Niger Delta (MEND). and Togo and Ghana. To pursue the economic interests through foreign relations within West Africa. Angolan-Nigerian relations. continued to support the organization’s objectives. The guiding principle of Nigeria's regional foreign policy was that of good neighborliness and friendship. Nigeria also tried to make its neighbors "safe" friends. contributing to African unity. Okah had tried to board a plane at Luanda airport bound for South Africa when authorities apprehended him. Strengthening ECOWAS promoted Nigeria’s national interests through encouraging development of the region’s economy and discouraging its neighbors’ reliance on extra-African countries for military. it helped to resolve conflicts between Liberia and Sierra Leone. Angola 55. but his lawyers asked the government to reconsider. since 1988 it has established a strong presence in Equatorial Guinea. partly to reenforce boundary claims and protect human rights of Nigerian citizens who were migrant workers and partly to stabilize relations between the immediate neighboring countries.21 illegal immigrants. Both are members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. ending border disputes. which are primarily based on their roles as oil exporting nations.

please see Cameroon-Nigeria relations. At least 30. Nigerian industry and commerce employed several thousand Chadian workers. Nigeria released about 150 Cameroonian prisoners of war in late 1998. After that. Mahmat Shawa Lol. Nigeria expelled several hundred thousand foreign workers. which faced drastic cuts as a result of declining world oil prices. In addition. mostly from its oil industry. limiting Libyan expansion while avoiding direct clashes with Libyan troops also became important goals. Bilateral trade agreements involved Chadian exports of livestock. Nigerians had assisted in the halting process of achieving stability in Chad. however.22 said the Angolan government had not yet decided whether it would extradite Okah who was finally extradited Cameroon 57. A longstanding border dispute with Cameroon over the potentially oil-rich Bakassi Peninsula has been resolved by the International Court of Justice in The Hague with Cameroon being granted ownership. dried fish. Nigeria's 1983 economic austerity campaign produced strains with neighboring states. 59. . Lol's perceived status as a Nigerian puppet contributed to mounting opposition during his short term as president in 1979. and Nigeria turning over the territory in 2008. The two nations forged stronger ties during the 1980s. considered France its primary rival in its attempt to chart the course of West Africa's political development. Both governments also recognized the potential value of the large informal trade sector across their borders.000 of those expelled were Chadians. and both nations reaffirmed their intention to maintain close ties. as a compromise head of a coalition government. Nigeria replaced France as Chad's major source of export revenues. which neither country regulated. Nigeria sponsored talks among Chad's rival factions in 1979 and promoted a little-known civil servant. For more information. and chemicals and imports of Nigerian foodstuffs and manufactured goods. Hoping to benefit commercially and diplomatically by expanding regional trade relations. Its generally paternalistic relations with Chad intensified after the coup that ousted President François Tombalbaye in 1975. Chad 58. Despite these strains. including Chad.

including Chad. and Nigerian apprehension of Libyan infiltration through Chad intensified. a joint commission for cooperation was established between Ghana and Nigeria. when Ghana was facing severe drought and economic problems. The two leaders discussed a wide range of issues focusing on peace and prosperity within West Africa. Chad's relationship with Nigeria was not without its strains. the low level of Lake Chad brought a series of tiny islands into view. Despite these strains. In April 1988.000 of those expelled were Chadians. and Rawlings took advantage of the change of administration to pay an official visit. 64.000 in early 1985 on short notice. Nigeria refused to continue much-needed oil supplies to Ghana. Ghana 63. generated by rising Islamic fundamentalism. Then in the early 1980s. Nigeria’s 1983 economic austerity campaign also produced strains with neighboring states. and of another 300. however. A bloodless coup in August 1985 had brought Major General Ibrahim Babangida to power in Nigeria. clashes occurred around Lake Chad.23 60. Beginning in the late 1970s. Both also sought to defuse these confrontations. This relationship was also complicated by Nigeria's own instability in the north. and the . 62. At the time. bilateral trade. which faced drastic cuts as a result of declining world oil prices. Ghana owed Nigeria about US$150 million for crude oil supplies and depended on Nigeria for about 90 percent of its petroleum needs. first by establishing joint patrols and a commission to demarcate the boundary across the lake more clearly. however. In protest. Tension rose immediately after the PNDC deposed Limann in 1981. Nigeria's expulsion of more than 1 million Ghanaian immigrants in early 1983. mostly from its oil industry. further strained relations between the two countries. Most religious violence was domestic in origin. leading to further disputes and disrupting long-standing informal trade networks. Thousands of casualties occurred as the result of violent clashes in Nigeria throughout the 1980s. but Nigerian police arrested a few Libyans. Ghana-Nigeria relations began on a sour note in the early period of PNDC rule. Nigerians had assisted in the halting process of achieving stability in Chad. At least 30. 61. Nigeria expelled several hundred thousand foreign workers. where both countries hoped to exploit oil reserves. and both nations reaffirmed their intention to maintain close ties.

political. Gaddaffi had made the suggestion in light of recent violence between the rival religions in Nigeria which had resulted in hundreds of deaths. two of the most important members of ECOWAS and the Commonwealth of Nations. to Libya on 18 March 2010. After the takeover in November 1993 by General Sani Abacha as the new Nigerian head of state. 65. Subsequent setbacks that Babangida initiated in the democratic transition process in Nigeria clearly disappointed Accra. In addition Gaddaffi had praised the Partition of India. the political crisis that followed Babangida’s annulment of the results of the June 1993 Nigerian presidential election and Babangida’s resignation from the army and presidency two months later did not significantly alter the existing close relations between Ghana and Nigeria. Libya 66. Nigeria recalled its ambassador. 67. which resulted in the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people. as the kind of model that Nigeria should follow. estabilize the country through . Ghana and Nigeria continued to consult on economic. Isa Aliyu Mohammed. The Nigerian foreign ministry stated that it was recalling Mohammed for “urgent negotiations” due to the “irresponsible utterances of Colonel Gaddafi”.24 transition to democracy in both countries. and security issues affecting the two countries and West Africa as a whole. Nonetheless. Between early August 1994 when Rawlings became ECOWAS chairman and the end of the following October. the Ghanaian president visited Nigeria three times to discuss the peace process in Liberia and measures to restore democracy in that country. Colonel Muammar Gaddafi that Nigeria should separate into a Muslim northern state and a Christian southern state. which the PNDC hailed as a watershed in Ghana-Nigeria relations. In early January 1989. The National Assembly also passed a motion urging the government to order an African Union investigation into whether Libya was attempting to “infiltrators”. The recall was in responses to a suggestion by Libyan leader. Babangida reciprocated with an official visit to Ghana. The Nigerian National Assembly has requested that the government ask the United Nations to prohibit Gaddaffi from calling for the division of Nigeria.

Despite this. 69. Development of bilateral relations. along with cultural. President of Niger Hamandi Diori was an active mediator in the conflict. Rival French And British interests meant that during much of the colonial period trade and relations across this border was dissuaded. and Nigeria to the south. entirely landlocked. the Gobir refugee state. From 1941 to 1943. cuts through one of the more densely populated areas of both nations. Both areas were culturally Hausaphone in the center and west. the French Niger colony was loyal to German occupied France.The 1. During the Nigerian Civil War. Each side has based diplomatic relations upon noninterference in the internal affairs of the other.500 kilometres (930 mi) long border between Niger in the north. were allied in a system of Islamic Fulani jihad states.Cameroonian or Nigerien . The Bilateral relations between the Republic of Niger and the Federal Republic of Nigeria are based on a long shared border and common cultural and historical interactions. Each side has also strongly appealed to its former colonial powers for support in defense and. common Hausa language and cultural ties meant that there was much informal trade and travel over the long border during the colonial period. In the east. Kano.Beninois relations. Areas to the north. and points west. but the current line is roughly the northern reach of the 19th century Sokoto caliphate. The expansion of French and British imperialism in the period 1890–1905 demarcated the line which would become the modern Niger – Nigeria border. and Kanuri in the east. there have been no . 70. Culturally. City states south of this such as Katsina. resisted the Sokoto caliphate. Prior to the turn of the 20th century there was no formal border here. was supplied with access to the sea through fellow French West Africa colonies in modern Benin. the two states pursued close relations. the French and English languages were implanted on each side of the border. Togo. both sides of the present border had been part of the Bornu empire. unlike Nigerian . and Sokoto. and the border between the colonies was completely closed. 71. Niger. the center and west of this border bisects the northern section of Hausaland: the home of the Hausa people.25 Niger 68. Since independence in 1960. Maradi. and the Sultanate of Damagaram. During colonial rule. educational and political traditions.

Nigeria was a founding member of the OAU and often channeled major policy initiatives through that organization. as predominant African leader. Commerce.26 serious border conflicts. while Niger maintains an embassy in Abuja.Nigeria has an embassy in Niamey. This commitment was pursued most actively after Murtala Muhammad successfully backed the Movimento Popular de Libertação de Angola's ascent to power in Angola in 1975 by providing the swing vote in the OAU decision to recognize the MPLA. but there is little interest in a pan-Hausa state. it should play a bigbrother role in relations with African states. although forced to go to mediation between Chad. The army participated in peacekeeping forces. In the latter case. Nigeria benefits from the trade and agricultural sales (especially Nigerien cattle taken to Nigerian markets). it contributed about US$20 million to assist the South West Africa People's Organization in the 1989 elections and other preparations for Namibian independence. and Nigeria. The division of Lake Chad. Niger. Cities such as Kano and Katsina have long been the southern terminus of trade networks which sustain much of Niger's economy. 72. Promoting liberation had grown from a weak and conservative stance during the 1960s to an increasingly firm push after the civil war. Nigeria had played a role in the independence of Zimbabwe and in the late 1980s was active in assisting Nambibia to achieve independence of Namibia. Mozambique. Although Nigeria's armed forces were among the largest in black Africa in the early 1990s. and Zimbabwe. sizable military might has rarely been used in foreign policy. Cameroon. The cities of southern Niger and Northern Nigeria have been linked in the Trans-Saharan trade going back to the medieval period. while Niger's most direct routes to overseas trade are through Nigeria's and Benin's railway systems. The country also contributed financially to liberation movements in South Africa and to the front line states of Zambia. Hausa language and cultural ties are strong. The prevailing perception in Nigeria's foreign policy was that. either alone or through the OAU and contributed . Tanzania. Nigeria's primary African commitment was to liberate the continent from the last vestiges of colonialism and to eradicate apartheid in South Africa. Relations with the Rest of Africa 73. Most of its relations with other African states took place outside the OAU framework but were guided by OAU principles. awaits formal settlement and has not been a source of tension between Niamey and Abuja. which were constantly harassed by South Africa.

grants. this example of generosity aided Nigeria in its efforts to create ECOWAS. . General Doganyaro. various African countries. Providing subsidies for African countries was a safe move for Nigeria because Africa comprised only a small portion of the country's total oil export market. In line with its ECOWAS comunitment. Additional forces were sent in late September 1990 under a Nigerian field commander. often through the African Development Bank of which it was a major benefactor. equipment. In November 1990. young Nigerian professionals served in other African. training facilities. Threats to fight for southern African liberation were made but not acted on. 75. and both the Organization of the Islamic Conference and the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries had established programs to aid poor countries while encouraging other oil producers. Nigeria also provided scholarships and fellowships.27 personnel to United Nations peacekeeping missions. but Nigeria did give military and financial aid to the African National Congress for its efforts against the apartheid regime in South Africa and provided military equipments to Mozambique to help its struggle South African-backed guerrillas. Under it. especially Liberia. 1990 after the peace talks there failed. Moreover. was established. Nigeria gave aid and technical assistance to several African states. begged for less expensive oil. and subsidized oil during the 1970s' oil crisis to African countries under certain conditions. it enhanced Nigeria's position and influence in Africa while building African solidarity. The decision came despite Nigeria's role as an Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) member generally in favor of higher prices and after more than two years of deliberations. and medical supplies. and it protected security interests by preventing economic decline. 74. and Pacific countries where their expertise was needed. to follow suit. operating along the lines of the United States Peace Corps. especially African nations. In addition. In July 1974. the Gowon government decided to sell crude oil at concessionary rates to African countries on condition that they had their own refineries and would not re-export to third countries. Nigeria was one of the main contributors of troops to the ECOWAS Cease-fire Monitoring Group (ECOMOG) sent to Liberia August 23. Nigeria acted largely in response to external pressures: international actors attempted to divide Third World countries into OPEC members and nonoil producers. In 1987 a Technical Aid Corps. Caribbean.

28 Babangida suggested that Nigeria might again offer concessionary prices to other African countries as the Middle East crises pushed oil prices upward. .

India is the second largest purchaser of Nigeria's oil which fulfills 20 to 25 percent of India's domestic oil demand. This included active participation in the UN. Nigeria was admitted to the UN within a week of independence in 1960.South Africa. Indian oil companies are also involved in oil drilling operations in Nigeria and have plans to set up refineries there. The bilateral relations between India and the Federal Republic of Nigeria have considerably expanded in recent years with both nations building strategic and commercial ties. One of Nigeria's earliest and most significant contributions to the UN was to furnish troops for the peacekeeping operation in Zaire in the early 1960s. Nigeria.29 CHAPTER IV EXTERNAL GLOBAL SCAN Foreign Relations 76. Nigeria was a prime organiser of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and of the ECOWAS Cease-fire Monitoring Group (ECOMOG) that stemmed from it. It was represented on the committees of specialized agencies and took its turn as a non-permanent member of the Security Council. formed the backbone of the UN force. Along with Kenya and South Africa. . By 1964 Nigerian army units. under Ironsi's command. regional cooperation. Nigeria is one of three “anchor states” in sub-Saharan Africa-countries that are key to the stability of the region because of location and resources. Nigeria-United Nations. 77. Main principles of foreign policy of non-interference in internal affairs and inviolability of national borders in Africa established at the time of independence. advocacy of pan-African solidarity through the Organisation of African Unity (OAU). With bilateral oil trade valued at US$10 billion. ECOMOG provided a peacekeeping force for Liberia to which Nigeria contributed 900 personnel in August 1990 as well as leadership. 78. India 79. support for anti colonial and liberation movements--particularly those in southern Africa--and nonalignment in the East-West conflict.

Since the restoration of democracy in Nigeria in 1998-99. As of 2007. Nigeria has joined India in becoming the largest democracies in their respective regions with diverse religious and ethnic populations. major Indian oil companies regularly issue tender of Nigerian crude oil.9 billion. G-77 and the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM).9 billion between April and September. After Nigeria's independence. pharmaceuticals. its trade with India has increased substantially . Nigeria has actively encouraged Indian companies to invest and expand Nigeria's mining and development of coal. Exports to India accounted for USD 3. Indian companies have invested heavily in Nigeria in manufacturing. India's exports to Nigeria were valued at USD $875 million in 2005/06.30 80.000 barrels per day from Nigeria valued at US$10 billion annually. In 1999. Both nations were colonised by the British Empire. Oil trade. Both are members of the Commonwealth of Nations.71 million in 1999-00 to USD 875 million in 2005-06. 83. In 2007. information technology and communications. India supported independence of African countries from colonial rule and established its diplomatic mission in 1958 – two years before Nigeria officially gained independence from British rule. engineering. Manmohan Singh became the first Indian leader to visit Nigeria in 45 years and addressed a joint session of the Parliament of Nigeria. the democratically-elected President of Nigeria Olusegun Obasanjo made a state visit to India and was the chief guest at India's Republic Day celebrations. Commerce. Development of bilateral relations 81. both nations sought to develop strong relations. iron ore. plastics. 82. . Indian Prime Minister Dr. Indian companies have invested in the Ajaokuta Iron and Steel Industry as well as Aladja Steel Complex in Delta. the value of non-oil bilateral trade was estimated between USD 6-7. Since the restoration of democracy in 1998. gold. 2006. Nigeria is the largest African crude oil supplier to India — India imports 400. the Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru made a state visit to Nigeria. Additionally.climbing from USD 293. In 1962. chrome ore. lead and other mineral resources. They possess diverse natural and economic resources and are the largest economies in their respective regions.

S. Nigeria also has played a leading role in forging an anti-terrorism consensus among states in Sub-Saharan Africa. with 100. the death of General Abacha in June 1998 and his replacement by General Abubakar opened a new phase of improved bilateral relations. foreign assistance priority in Nigeria. the United States imposed numerous sanctions on Nigeria.S.000 women each year. 2001 terrorist attacks. study. and Nigeria has the fourth-highest tuberculosis (TB) burden in the world. such as regional peacekeeping. 2007. discussions of future assistance. U.S.S. while over 25.000 deaths each . The challenges are considerable. officials. and work in the United States. and in light of human rights abuses and the failure to embark on a meaningful democratic transition. and cooperation on many important foreign policy goals. increased high-level visits of U.31 United States of America 84.S. the bilateral relationship has continued to improve. and has the world's second-highest maternal mortality rate. Government counter-terrorism efforts in the aftermath of the September 11. is the global center of transmission of wild polio virus. effective in March. concern for the well-being of the Nigerian people. The relations are bilateral relations between Nigeria and the United States.S. 1999. Since the inauguration of the Obasanjo government. 1993. economic growth. The government has lent strong diplomatic support to U. Malaria causes the preventable deaths of 300. After a period of increasingly strained relations. has both condemned the terrorist attacks and supported military action against the Taliban and Al Qaida. The U. paved the way for re-establishment of closer ties between the United States and Nigeria as a key partner in the region and the continent.000 children and 7. As the transition to democracy progressed. ability to help Nigeria combat public health shortcomings contributes directly to good governance. Nigeria has the world's second-lowest rate of immunization coverage. 85. societal stability. presidential election. An estimated one million Nigerians and Nigerian Americans live. President Yar'Adua visited President Bush at the White House on December 13. The Government of Nigeria. the removal of visa restrictions. has been excellent. "Investing in People" is the top U. 86. and confidence in U.With the nullification of Nigeria's June 12. and the granting of a Vital National Interest Certification on counter-narcotics.000 Americans live and work in Nigeria. Foreign Assistance Priorities. in its official statements.

which imposes an unsustainable burden on health care delivery services that are already taxed to the limit. polio eradication. which provide both religious instruction and a secular curriculum. 89. The United States is helping Nigeria make exceptional efforts to develop inclusive. Nigeria's low contraceptive prevalence rate of 8. assistance helps rebuild basic mechanisms of democratic governance to make elected officials accountable to constituents through free and fair elections.S. informed citizens who demand performance.S.S. The United States has supported the peacekeeping and simulation centers at the Armed Forces Staff College—the only one in Africa and . 87. The United States supports democratic local government and decentralization and improves fiscal administration by maximizing revenue collection in credible audits. assistance will strengthen the Nigerian health system. 90. Government maternal and child health efforts will focus on immunization. It strengthens civil society by promoting existing watchdog groups that have lobbied successfully for more transparency.S. U. especially in the vulnerable co-infected HIV/AIDS population. electoral. and well-organized. and human rights affairs. and only 28% are literate. U. One-third (10 million) of Nigerian children are enrolled in primary school. and referral systems between diagnosis and treatment programs for TB and AIDS. Only 45% of primary-school aged children have functional numeric skills. through teacher training and community involvement. birth preparedness. and pluralism in Nigeria's fiscal. accountability. U. efforts to eradicate malaria will focus on the sale of insecticide-treated nets and treatments kits. Government focuses resources on expanding access to quality family planning services and reproductive health care and strives to increase the contraceptive prevalence rate to 14%. Furthermore. To reduce death and disability as a result of TB. Governing Justly and Democratically. and ensure equitable access to quality basic education.2%. conflict management. The U. and provide therapies and intermittent preventive treatment of pregnant women. transparent. Peace and Security. The United States hopes to bolster basic education. and maternity services. U. strong government institutions. 88.S. the U. and effective institutions of democratic governance. including at Islamiyya schools.32 year. advances rule of law in Nigeria by strengthening the capacity and transparency of law enforcement agencies and judiciary.S. political.9% and high fertility rate of 5.7 children per woman drives an annual population growth rate of 3.

Nigeria is the United States' largest trading partner in sub- Saharan Africa. drug traffickers. training. encourage investment. The U. the United States supports the European Union's leading role in helping Nigeria fight corruption. 91. small and medium enterprises have access to credit. document fraud. Finance Ministry. Beyond fostering maritime cooperation with security services in the Niger Delta. developmental and technical aid. is building the capacity of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) to prevent and respond to regional instability and promote the integration of ECOWAS security mechanisms into a broad Africa framework. The U. and law enforcement cooperation in border control and against arms smuggling and oil theft. Micro-investment is hindered by lack of access to market-driven financial services and lack in policy that provides for liberalization of credit institutions and encourages savings plans with transparency in both the private and public sectors. clinics and basic community services to demonstrate U. The U. and development of the private sector capacity to meet international trade and export standards. will focus on training.S. taking advantage of AGOA incentives for bilateral trade. and terrorists. commitment to help build the nation's infrastructure. U. It is also funding military-sponsored schools. Economic Growth.S. which supply 8% of U. largely due to the high level of petroleum imports from Nigeria. programs help develop a policy climate in which micro. The United States is working with the Central Bank of Nigeria. and technical help to Nigeria's counter-terrorism finance regime. and others to improve the environment for investment in agriculture through policy reform at the national and state level.S. and build capacity in both the public and private sectors. stimulate job growth. organized criminal elements. Two-way trade in 2008 was . 92. National Planning Commission. will continue to offer legal reform.S. Trade. Expanded community policing programs will improve Nigeria's human rights record and restore public faith and cooperation with the security services.S. oil imports--nearly half of Nigeria's daily oil production.S.33 a major regional asset—and has continued to provide equipment and training for Nigerian peacekeeping forces while promoting effective civilian oversight of the military and its adherence to human rights norms. Trade initiatives include capacity building in customs regulation and operations. Nigeria is the fifth-largest exporter of oil to the United States. policy reform to encourage internal and external trade. Federal and state policy strengthening are essential as business decisions and banking regulation take place at both levels.

34 valued at more than $42 billion, an 18% increase over 2007 data. Led by machinery, wheat, and motor vehicles, U.S. goods exports to Nigeria in 2008 were worth more than $4 billion. In 2008, U.S. imports from Nigeria were over $38 billion, consisting predominantly of oil. However, rubber products, cocoa, gum arabic, cashews, coffee, and ginger constituted over $70 million of U.S. imports from Nigeria in 2007. The U.S. trade deficit with Nigeria was $21 billion in 2007. Nigeria is the 50th-largest export market for U.S. goods and the 14th-largest exporter of goods to the United States. The United States is Nigeria's largest trading partner after the United Kingdom. Although the trade balance overwhelmingly favors Nigeria, thanks to oil exports, a large portion of U.S. exports to Nigeria is believed to enter the country outside of the Nigerian Government's official statistics, due to importers seeking to avoid Nigeria's excessive tariffs. 93. The United States is the largest foreign investor in Nigeria. The stock of U.S.

foreign direct investment (FDI) in Nigeria in 2006 was $339 million, down from $2 billion in 2004. U.S. FDI in Nigeria is concentrated largely in the petroleum/mining and wholesale trade sectors. Exxon-Mobil and Chevron are the two largest U.S. corporate players in offshore oil and gas production. 94. In March 2009, the United States and Nigeria met under the existing Trade

and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA) to advance the ongoing work program and to discuss improvements in Nigerian trade policies and market access. Among the topics discussed were cooperation in the World Trade Organization (WTO), market access, export diversification, intellectual property protection and

enforcement, commercial issues, trade capacity building and technical assistance, infrastructure, and investment issues. China 95. Development of bilateral relations. Nigeria and the People's Republic of

China established formal diplomatic relations on February 10, 1971.Relations between the two nations grew closer as a result of the international isolation and Western condemnation of Nigeria's military regimes (1970s-1998). Nigeria has since become an important source of oil and petroleum for China's rapidly-growing economy and Nigeria is looking to China for help in achieving high economic growth; China has provided extensive economic, military and political support. In 2004 and again in 2006, Chinese President Hu Jintao made state visits to Nigeria and

35 addressed a joint session of the National Assembly of Nigeria. Both nations signed a memorandum of understanding on establishing a strategic partnership. China has supported Nigeria's bid for a seat in the U.N. Security Council. 96. Strategic cooperation. Reacting to the hesitation of the United States and

other Western nations in providing military aid in fighting insurgents in the oil-rich Niger Delta to protect Nigeria's oil resources, the Nigerian government has developed close military cooperation with China, which has supplied arms, equipment, training and technology to the Nigerian armed forces. Both nations also signed a USD 311 million agreement to develop cooperation in communications and space programs; China helped develop and launch the Nigerian communications satellite (NigComSat-1) by 2007 to expand cellular and internet networks in Central Africa. 97. Chinese President Hu Jintao and Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo in

2006, agreed to work on a strategic plan for the future growth of bilateral relations to push forward the strategic partnership between the two countries. Sino- Nigerian relations has reached consensus on building strategic partnership with political mutual trust, economic reciprocity and mutual assistance in international affairs. Since the two countries forged diplomatic ties 35 years ago, bilateral relations had progressed steadily despite international and their domestic changes. During the visit, Chinese President Hu Jintao made a four-point proposal for the development of bilateral relations. They are:(a) The first is to enhance political mutual trust to promote strategic

cooperation. (b) The second is to expand cooperation in areas including agriculture,

energy, electricity, infrastructural construction, telecommunications and satellite to achieve reciprocity and win- win. (c) The third is to expand cultural exchanges and cooperation and jointly

combat various diseases including malaria and bird flu. (d) The fourth is to strengthen cooperation in international affairs to

promote world peace, enhance coordination and cooperation on major international issues such as the reform of the United Nations, human rights, anti-terrorism and peacekeeping, and promote South-South and South-North

36 dialogues to jointly safeguard the just rights and interests of developing countries. 98. China Commerce. Bilateral trade between Nigeria and the People's Republic of reached USD 3 billion in 2006,up from USD 384 million in 1998. During

Chinese President Hu Jintao's visit in 2006, China secured four oil drilling licenses and agreed to invest USD 4 billion in oil and infrastructure development projects in Nigeria, and both nations agreed to a four-point plan to improve bilateral relations, a key component of which was to expand trade and investments in agriculture,

telecommunications, energy and infrastructure development. Furthermore, China agreed to buy a controlling stake in the Kaduna oil refinery that would produce 110,000 barrels a day. Nigeria also promised to give preference to Chinese oil firms for contracts for oil exploration in the Niger Delta and Chad Basin. In 2006, China also agreed to grant a loan of USD 1 billion to Nigeria to help it upgrade and modernize its railway networks. In 2005 Nigeria agreed to supply PetroChina with 30,000 barrels a day of oil for USD 800 million. In 2006 the CNOOC purchased a share for USD 2.3 billion in an oil exploration block owned by a former Defence Minister. China has also pledged to invest USD 267 million to build the Lekki free trade zone near Lagos. However, the "flooding" of Nigerian markets with cheap Chinese goods has become a sensitive political issue, as combined with the importation of second-hand European products, it has adversely affected domestic industries, especially in textiles, and led to closure of 65 textile mills and the laying-off of 150,000 textile workers over the course of a decade. Nigerian militants have also threatened to attack Chinese workers and projects in the Niger Delta. 99. Infrastructure. China has agreed to lend Nigeria $1bn (£532m) so that

the African nation can modernise its railways and help speed up the development of its economy. The announcement of the loan comes after China's CITIC group and China Railway Construction last week won a tender to build 528 km of the 1,216-km Algeria East-West Highway, beating US, German and Japanese firms. Under the deal, Nigeria will have to provide matching funds to buy new rolling stock and equipment, as well as lay new track. The deal is the latest example of China looking to tighten relations with oil-producer countries. China wants to secure steady energy supplies as its economy booms.

Pakistan 102. on July 21. After many years of waste and corruption. diplomatic relations were severed.) and commercial trade. The two states have maintained a close relationship. The nuclear agreement "is for cooperation in the peaceful use of nuclear energy especially for the purpose of . Brazil 103. Nigeria. Between 1973 and 1992. during Africa Endeavor 2008. bilateral relations are better.” Defence attachés from Pakistan and Russia visit the communications tent at the Nigerian Air Force Base. the largest country in Latin America by size. In June 2009. Both countries established diplomatic relations in 1960.37 100. A joint venture between Gazprom and Nigerian National Petroleum Corp. as well as a Consulate-General in Karachi. Since September 1992. and there may be military cooperation. Russia 104. and strong relationship on the bases of culture (seeing as many Afro-Brazilians trace their ancestry to Nigeria. Nigeria is a major provider of petroleum to Brazil. Russia's President Dmitry Medvedev becomes the first Kremlin leader to visit Nigeria. Nigeria has paid off most of its foreign debts and set itself ambitious goals for economic growth.Pakistan has a High Commission in Abuja and Nigeria has an embassy in Islamabad. Chinese firms also are keen to tap into what they hope will be the quick development of the Nigerian economy. and the largest country in Africa by population are remotely bordered across from one another by the Atlantic Ocean. Provision of infrastructure is critical for economic development as stated by Nigeria's Finance Minister Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala. a relationship which is described by the Nigerian Defence Minister as "friendly" and like a "family tie. Abuja. 2008. Israel has an embassy in Abuja and Nigeria has an embassy in Tel Aviv. Israel 101. Brazil and Nigeria for centuries. was signed. have enjoyed a warmly friendly. Since April 1993. Nigeria and Russia are doing deals in nuclear energy and in oil and gas. Bilateral relations between Nigeria and Brazil focus primarily upon trade and culture.

behind the United States. the second most-active emerging-market power.38 electricity. China is now Africa's second largest aid donor and trading partner.” ."Russia and Nigeria signed an agreement on March 2009 to cooperate in building nuclear reactors and jointly explore for uranium.But Russia. is gaining” In the Battle of the Riches.

Poor Governance. Vast forest and varied wild life. Poor health care and education system . Rising fundamentalism. (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) (v) (vi) (vii) (viii) (ix) (x) (b) Regional importance due to its geographic location Vast oil reserves. Poverty. Over reliance on oil for GDP. Weaknesses. Ethnic factionalism/ sectarian issues. cyber crime. (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) (v) (vi) (vii) (viii) (ix) (x) (xi) (xii) Fragile democratic government. Disparity in wealth Decaying basic social amenities. Corruption and declining economy. The Nigerian strengths.39 CHAPTER V SWOT – ANALYSIS 105. Emerging as a regional power in Africa Successful in sorting out border issues with all neighbours. opportunities & threats are listed below:(a) Strengths. Environmental issues. Unemplyment leading to drug pedalling. weakness. Abundant manpower. defence and trade. Vast mineral resources Expanding Market Long coast line. Government lacks centralised leadership. Close ties with China for infrastructure.

Fragile peace with neighbouring countries. Influx of Somalia refugees. 106. Rank Order 1 Strengths Rank Order Weaknesses Geo-Strategic Location 1 Fragile govenment democratic 2 3 Vast oil reserves 2 Ethnic factionalism Economic challenges and security Ties with USA .40 (c) Opportunities. (ii) (iii) (iv) (v) (vi) (vii) Anti American sentiment among Nigerian muslims rising. Stoking of divisive feelings from Libya. (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) (v) (vi) (vii) (d) Strengthen ties with US to its advantage. (i) Islamic fundamentalism from foreign terrorist groups from outside the country. Strengthen ties with India Threats. US Military presence.. China and 3 India 4 5 6. (viii) Presence of foreign powers to exploit untapped oil resources leading to unemployment and affecting the economy. Expanding Market Vast Natural Resources Human Resources 4 5 6 Rising fundamentalism Poor Governance Over dependence on oil for GDP . Chinese influence in decision making. Economic trade with neighbours. Prevail on IMF and World Bank for loan facility. SWOT Summary. Stakes of Extra Regional Powers Emerge as a major regional power in African continent. Stregthen ties with China in trade and security issues.

China 3.Ethnic factionalism democratic 3.Poor Governance . 107. 4 Economic neighbours 5 Strenghten ties with China and 5 India 6.Prevail on IMF and World Bank for loan ties with Given below Given below SO Strategy Options WO Strategy Options challenges 4.Vast oil reserves 2.Vast Resources 6. Trade with 4 of Extra Regional 3 Fragile neighbours Stoking of divisive feelings from Libya Chinese presence peace with Threats influencing decision making Influx Somalia US military presence in of refugees from neighbourhood.Strenghten USA 2. SWOT MATRIX.Expanding Market 5.Human Resources 6.41 Rank Order 1 Strenghten ties with USA Opportunities Rank Order 1 Islamic fundamentalism from foreign soil 2 Prevail on IMF and World Bank 2 for loan 3 Stakes Powers.Rising fundamentalism Natural 5.Geo-Strategic Location Weakness (W) 1.Over dependence on oil for GDP Opportunities (O) 1.Ties with USA . Regional continent Power in African 6. Strength (S) 1.Economic and security and India 4.Fragile govenment 2.

(d) Exploit natural resources to improve economy. China and India and improve economy.Regional Power in African continent Threat (T) 1. (c) Close ties with USA and China to be exploited to prevail on IMF and World Bank for loan. 4. SO Strategy Options (a) The strategic location and long coast line to be exploited further to develop economic trade.Islamic fundamentalism from foreign soil 2.Stoking of divisive peace with Given below Given below ST Strategy Options WT Strategy Options feelings from Libya 4.US military presence in neighbourhood.Strenghten ties with China and India 6. .Economic Trade with neighbours 5.42 3.Fragile neighbours 3.Influx of refugees from Somalia 6. (b) Vast oil reserves to be leveraged to further strengthen ties with USA.Stakes of Extra Regional Powers.Chinese influencing making 5. presence decision 108.

(c) Control Islamic fundamentalism by improving Governance. (b) Economic progress to be used to reduce factionalism in the government. Effective measures to be initiated to combat terrorism. (e) 110. Exploit untapped resources to reduce poverty. (d) (e). (b). 111.43 109. (b) (c) USA and Indian ties to be exploited to strengthen democracy. ST Strategy Options (a) USA R&D to be used to tap natural resources and reduce anti USA sentiments. Indo China competition to be exploited to meet economic challenges. WO Strategy Options (a) Economic progress to be used to reduce factionalism in the government. Population growth to be controlled through awareness campaign. (d) Have a strengthen and stable government to fight Islamic fundamentalism. There is a need to deal with this with a firm resolve. WT Strategy Options (a) Factionalism in the government could be the reason for fragile democratic government. . reduce fundamentalism and improve security. Meeting economic challenges can create awareness which would facilitate population control. (c) Improved economy and USA relations to be exploited to improve infrastructure to reduce drought and floods.

Nigeria is likely to follow policy of liberalisation and open up to the world market and investors. import technology for oil and thus increase in per capita income. improve economic conditions. With the democratic processes having set in. sudden inflow of cash and economic growth. Nigeria would like US to assist in infrastructure and economic build up thus leading to substantial increase in GDP. Both the countries will pursue their own Interests. agriculture revolution and economy build up. the US would continue and further strengthen its military presence in Nigeria thus retaining control / influence on the Indian Ocean and operations against Islamic fundamentalism. It is likely to attract many foreign investors thus opening up avenues for employment in private sector. (b) Friendship with USA. 113. Nigeria in next 20 years is likely to encounter the following economic scenarios: - . UK and Germany will come forward to invest in Nigeria in infrastructure building.Vast resources of oil and petroleum also offers energy seeking countries like India and China to invest in these areas and thus in bargain provide fillip to the Nigerian economy in the long run. (c) Liberalisation and Privatisation. In due course of time the rich and affluent democratic nations including USA. However. in return. This diverse country in next 20 years is likely to encounter the following scenario: (a) Strengthening of Democracy and Economic Growth. The complete outlook and attitude of Nigeria would alter in next few years thus setting an example for many other African countries to emulate. Economic Scenario. On the other hand. In the end Nigeria would be a gainer as the world community is uniting against terrorism. these countries will seek Nigeria’s active role in combating terrorism. combat poverty. The democracy will get strengthened and in bargain will earn appreciation from world community.44 CHAPTER VI FUTURE SCENARIOS Scenarios 112.

Scenario1. (c) Scenario 3:Sustained Gradual Growth. economic distortions and policy measures. This economic renaissance is likely to increase the levels of employment and fillip the easing of internal strife in the nation. (d) Analysis. the country is rich in Petroleum and mineral reserves and thus offers energy hungry powers like US. Thus. capital flight. All of the above will lead to an economic downward spiral effect leading the country to chaos and anarchy ready to be exploited by Muslim fundamentalism. Western powers will play a major role in this massive economic resurgence. Scenario 2 is an overly optimistic. Scenario 3 is more realistic than scenario 2 and it is preferable to scenario 1. The global economy rebounds from recession and.China. ideal world construct. in turn contributing to infrastructural development. what the country should realistically settle for in the long term. with it. Economic growth remains low and the poverty and unemployment positions worsens because of macroeconomic instability. inadequate coordination of monetary and fiscal policies. is the worst case.Only major obstacle in the process is the poor macroeconomics and infrastructural constraints. Strategic scenarios which Nigeria is likely to be confronted can best be described as under :(a) Alliance With the West. The investment climate improves.45 (a) Scenario 1: Status Quo. (b) Scenario 2:Nigeria Turn Around. which is the baseline scenario.Alliance with the west will also hinge on another key facet : control of the rise of Islamic Fundamentalism in Africa . As has been evident from the BMC analysis.While China is likely to exploit the resources . socio-political tensions.. therefore. Germany and UK adequate oppurtunities to invest and jointly exploit the optimum potential of the resources. there is increased external resource inflow. lack of focus in government expenditure profile. poor state of infrastructure and facilities. 114. oil prices firm up. Strategic Scenarios. . Scenario 3 is. there is some improvement in GDP growth from under 4% to above 5%. The external reserves are further boosted because of the various governments macro-economic and sectoral policy initiatives begin to yield significant dividends. resulting in a marginal net accretion to the external reserves. inflationary pressures. depressed oil prices.

5% approximately. specially in Economic and health sectors to combat the scourge of HIV/AIDS. (d) (e) Strengthen the law and order machinery to contain sectarian violence. specially sectarian violence is likely to dominate the internal scenario. US and to some extent China will need to be developed. ripe to be exploited by divisive elements. The country goes into anarchy situation.albeit low. Economic alliances with countries like India. Scenario To Strategy Options 115. .5%. Focus on development / import of technology from countries like India to optimise the oil production. (b) Necessary to create conducive environment for peaceful operations of UN and other aid agencies to operate. (d) Developmental initiatives in the Reserch and Development sectors to further develop technology to optimise the oil and mineral resources output. economic growth of 5. (c) Law and order problems.46 (b) Radicalisation of the Nation. Core Strategy Options. (c) Necessary diplomatic endeavours and lobbying to ensure financial aids from external agencies. (c) Most Likely Scenario. Anarchy sets in with the government failing to control the societal rifts and clash on religious dimensions.China’s oil energy acquisition initiatives and the congruence of the world order in the fight against terrorism. The key events and trends which are likely to characterise the future over the next 15 – 20 years are going to revolve around the following issues :(a) (b) Average GDP growth of 5. Scenario one appears to be the most likely scenario. Key national endeavours to address the issues in order to exploit the situation to own advantage are as under :(a) Sustained economic philip is required to ensure a stable. Core Future Security Environment. 116. primarily due to increasing US influence. External support and the UN support continues to be provided.

(c) Identify your basic strength of being rich in Oil and Mineral resources and leverage the same for providing philip to economic development. (f) Bring about social development to improve HDI. (d) (e) Address the nations socio-economic needs of health and employment. 118. The internal strife divides the nation on religious lines which is exploited by Islamic fundamentalist organisations and the country develops into a hotbed of terrorism in Africa.Address the problems of religious divide.47 117. Foster greater partnership with USA. Contingency Strategic Options. 120. (a) (b) (c) Strengthen regional forums like AU & NEPAD. (b) Imbibe technology at the fastest possible pace to address the oil and natural resources exploitation in the most beneficial manner. EU and India. sectarian violence and drug trafficking on priority. Improve financial system and taxation policy for sustained economic growth. Promote democracy and good governance. Join the war against terror and gain the support of the league of nations in their fight. (a) Stable democratic set up to be established which imposes the rule of law in the entire geographic region of the country. (b) Nigeria Turn Around . Unlikely to happen. (d) (e) HRD. considering the present state of the country and geo-politic dynamics. Basic Strategy Options. Obtain optimum value for natural resources with tech know how and . The most likely scenario option for Nigeria and which is also the most desirable is to “Establish a stable democratic setup with convergence on economic and social development”. Basic Strategy Environment. Environment Shaping Strategy. (a) Radicalisation of the Nation. 119.

Enhance military capability and cooperation to combat terrorism and .48 (g) piracy.

In July. free presidential elections led to an overwhelming victory for Gen. Nigeria gained independence. 1970. a choice unacceptable to the Ibos. 1999. Introduction. was a crushing blow to democratic proponents. his anticorruption drives. and his desire to recover billions allegedly stolen by the family and cronies of Abacha initially gained him high praise from the populace as well as the international community.49 CHAPTER VII NATIONAL SECURITY OBJECTIVES AND STRATEGY Regions. Nigeria had the 33rd highest per capita income in the world. On Oct. In Jan. But . Corruption and notorious governmental inefficiency as well as a harshly repressive military regime characterized Abacha's reign over this oil-rich country. 1. primarily of Ibo ethnicity. Olusegun Obasanjo. Biafra surrendered to the federal government. 123. 1967. who had been imprisoned by the military ever since he legally won the 1993 presidential election. the Muslim Hausas in the north massacred the predominantly Christian Ibos in the east. a second military coup put Col. 1960. In Feb. A UN fact-finding mission in 1996 reported that Nigeria's “problems of human rights are terrible and the political problems are terrifying. Trends and Issues of National Security Concern 121. Yakubu Gowon in power. becoming a member of the Commonwealth of Nations and joining the United Nations. The suspicious death of opposition leader Mashood Abiola. Also in that year. Thousands of Ibos took refuge in the eastern region.” During the 1970s. the independent nation faced the overwhelming task of unifying a country with 250 ethnic and linguistic groups. which declared its independence as the Republic of Biafra on May 30. seized control. turning it into an international pariah. Rioting broke out in 1966. and military leaders. Civil war broke out. The hanging of writer Ken Saro-Wiwa in 1995 because he protested against the government was condemned around the world. Obasanjo's commitment to democracy. a former member of the military elite who was imprisoned for three years for criticizing the military rule. 122. but by 1997 it had dropped to the 13th poorest. Organized as a loose federation of self-governing states. after 31 months of civil war. many of whom had been driven from the north.

He will serve as President until the next election. of the People's Democratic Party. Upon taking office. the hope of reform seemed doomed as economic mismanagement and rampant corruption persisted. . Although the elections which brought Obasanjo to power in 1999 and again in 2003 were condemned as unfree and unfair. Few but the most optimistic are likely to conclude that the last 50 years have been anything but difficult. power and electoral reform as likely focuses of his administration. In this regard. came into power in the general election of 2007 – an election that was witnessed and condemned by the international community as being massively flawed. becoming Nigeria's 14th Head of State. Goodluck Ebele Jonathan was sworn in as Yar'Adua's replacement on 6 May 2010. Each national territory is. Yar'Adua died on 5 May 2010.50 within two years. Nigeria has shown marked improvements in attempts to tackle government corruption and to hasten development. He stated that he came to office under "very sad and unusual circumstances. he was accused by others of the same. In April 2003. Dr. ipso facto. 125. In 2010. The preparedness of many African countries sans Nigeria was to enter into defence arrangements with the erstwhile colonial powers was dictated by a conscious desire to safeguard the independence and territorial integrity of the nation state and by implication." 126. an extravagance that exceeded the combined budget for both health and education. While Obasanjo showed willingness to fight corruption. a potential base for the destabilisation of a neighbouring state. Obasanjo's priorities in 2001 were epitomized by his plans to build a $330 million national soccer stadium. Jonathan cited anticorruption. As developing low. Recent History.technology countries. Geographical propinquity links in an inextricable manner the security interests of contiguous states. several situations have arisen in the recent past in Nigeria which clearly constituted a threat to the security of parts of the immediate sub region. 127. he was reelected. the more its citizens are drawn to reflect on its past. this fact renders their sheer physical proximity the more important since any credible threat to each state’s national independence and territorial integrity must necessarily be related to actions or activities within each state. the particular interests of the incumbent regime. 124. Nigeria celebrates its half-centenary. The closer the country edges toward this historic date. Nigeria and all its immediate neighbours are devoid of nuclear capabilities.Umaru Yar'Adua.

witnessed several clashes. The minor incursions by Beninese troops and with increased smuggling into Nigeria forced the country to retaliate.690-kilometer border with Cameroon. posed perennial problems.. This step was designed to preempt the return of the old currency. (b) Illegal immigrants and smuggling from Niger. (c) The approximately eighty-five-kilometer border with Chad through Lake Chad witnessed more serious hostilities. (d) Nigeria's longest frontier.51 128. After further clashes. the 1. the tensions were resolved temporarily by an agreement to revive joint border patrols (which had lapsed) and to have the four-nation Lake Chad Basin Commission take up border security issues and demarcate their common borders. much of which had been smuggled out of the country by politicians. In 1981 five Nigerian soldiers were killed and three wounded when a Cameroonian patrol boat fired on a Nigerian vessel off the . the likely regions of National Security Concern as envisaged are as follows:(a) External. Clashes between Nigerian and Chadian soldiers in April 1983 resulted in more than 100 casualties. Border security with each of its neighbors was a constant problem for Nigeria since independence. Nigerian President Shehu Shagari and Chadian president Hissein Habré agreed to military disengagement. with which Nigeria shared a 1.497-kilometer border. While Nigeria has sorted out all border disputes and issues through various peace accords and agreements and no external threat seems possible in the near future as no major or minor incidents were noted since mid 1990s. To prevent the reentry of the smuggled currency. and to establish a new baseline for Nigeria's financial system that could more readily be monitored. to reopening the frontier. Nigeria closed all its borders. Regions of National Security Concern. in response to increasing clashes between communities along the Benin border. Nigeria recalled all its existing currency notes in exchange for new notes. to reactivation of joint frontier patrols. Nigeria decided to establish about 100 additional border posts staffed by customs and immigration officials and apeace accord signed between the Presidents of both countries in 1988. and to a special joint commission on border demarcation among the states touching on Lake Chad. In April 1984. In 1986. to an exchange of prisoners. however.

Cameroonian gendarmes allegedly abducted four Nigerian customs officials on routine border patrol duties. Mohammed Yusuf. The border issues have since been sorted out. Lagos issued orders to state governors "to take military reprisals against any belligerent neighboring country. Nigeria's oil production has been significantly reduced.52 contested Rio del Rey area. The crisis was settled peaceably. Boko Haram. yielded mutual pledges of steps to prevent a recurrence of border clashes. Libya's military intervention in Chad and subversive activities in Nigeria and neighboring states. capital of Cameroon. including joint border patrols. In the 1980s.5 million barrels a day to 1. Both were geographically remote. Since the insurgency broke out in 2004. The police. Ethnic violence over the oil producing Niger Delta region and inadequate infrastructures are some of the current issues in the country. tensions along the frontier continued. declared a cease-fire in September. often through the agency of illegal immigrants. followed by the army. however. In October 1989. the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta. which is opposed to Western education and seeks to have Sharia law implemented throughout the country. and uranium deposits. As many as 1. which was thought to be rich in oil.5 million. . and in May 1987. strained relations with Nigeria. (d) Internal." and tension remained high until Babangida's visit to Yaounde. from about 2.1988. (e) Deadly violence broke out in July 2009 in northeastern Nigeria between government troops and an obscure fundamentalist sect. gas. Nigeria remains wary of the unpredictable Muammar al Qadhafi. The group's leader.000 civilians died in the battles. was killed in the campaign. retaliated and unleashed a five-day assault against the sect. and their threats emanated more from their peculiar regimes than from underlying historical or geopolitical rivalry. The rebel group in Nigeria's oil-producing region. Although relations improved after President Babangida's visit to Tripoli in mid. (e) Libya and South Africa were the only perceived continental threats. The fighting began after militants attacked police stations and seemed to be preparing for a pitched religious war against the government. Cameroonian gendarmes allegedly occupied sixteen border villages in Borno State until repulsed by Nigerian army units.

including substantial support to help organize pre. the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) in 1978. such as internal and interstate conflicts. Nigeria also called for a permanent African seat on the UN Security Council. its leadership in various international fora. Nigeria did not send troops to participate in the 1990 Persian Gulf war. most notably in its contribution of military units to several UN peacekeeping missions. (a) Nigeria has been a leading spokesman on African security issues. and material assistance to the Namibian liberation movement. Higher Priority Opportunities Exist or Likely to Occur. and its participation in the global nuclear nonproliferation movement. It also contributed to the UN India-Pakistan Observer Mission (UNIPOM) in 1965. foreign intervention. All told. . It was one of the most consistent and generous providers of political. Nigerian units took part in operations beyond the colony's borders in both world wars. Nigeria's only foreign military deployments other than its border dashes with Chad and Cameroon have been multilateral missions. which was attempting to suppress South Africanbacked Resistência Nacional Moçambicana (Renamo) guerrillas. however. and a battalion to Tanzania after the 1964 mutiny. and the UN observer mission to oversee the Iran-Iraq cease-fire and the AngolaNamibia accords in 1988.53 129.independence elections. Nigeria has proudly boasted Africa's longest and most distinguished record of participation in UN peacekeeping operations. and regional defense arrangements. (b) Nigeria has been in the vanguard of African support for the liberation of southern Africa and defense of the frontline states. Nigeria also sent military equipment to Mozambique. and it played an active role in continental security issues. the South West Africa People's Organization (SWAPO). colonialism. Nigeria donated several million dollars' worth of military and financial aid to the African National Congress in its struggle against South Africa's apartheid regime. financial. (c) Nigeria's global interests and roles were demonstrated in different ways. Nigeria has contributed about 16. Nigeria dispatched two infantry divisions under UN command to Congo in the early 1960s. It supported the strengthening of the OAU and the use of diplomacy to resolve intra-African conflicts.000 troops to UN peacekeeping functions. For reasons of internal politics and security. Since independence.

the rapid expansion of the oil industry has enriched a few at the expense of the many as Nigeria has been transformed into a rentier state. 130. In early 1988. Also known as the Lagos Forum. the country continues to be plagued by intercommunal violence as ethnic and religious groups everywhere periodically fall upon one another with murderous intent. ensuring peaceful uses of its nuclear reactor project. the return of military cannot be ruled out. Lagos signed the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty on the day it was opened for signature in 1968 and has made proposals at the UN for an African nuclear-free zone. Various Nigerian academicians and officials have spoken in favor of keeping open or even of exercising the military "nuclear option" to supply energy. the group held a September 1987 meeting attended by more than twenty countries. or the superpowers. the military’s actions have helped strangle democracy and institutionalize electoral fraud. Undesirable Trends and Issues of National Security Concern. such as South Africa. that its continued nuclear forbearance is contingent on other signatories honoring their obligations and on the behavior of nonsignatories. however. (d) The Biafran war of the late 1960s was but the most dramatic manifestation of the regionalist and sectarian impulses that still threaten to tear . (c) Socially. Nigeria signed a safeguards agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency. Nigeria also hosted the second meeting of the twenty-three-nation Zone of Peace and Cooperation of the South Atlantic in July 1990. Nigeria has endured prolonged bouts of chronic instability as time and again the military has intervened to install one of its own as head of state. Libya.54 (d) Nigeria's internationalism also was manifest in its initiative to create a Concert of Medium Powers among nonaligned states in March 1987. While a civil administration is in place. (e) Nuclear nonproliferation was another important global security issue for Nigeria. to enhance Nigeria's power and prestige. at which Nigeria was appointed chair of the group and coordinator of its program. Nigeria has made clear. and to avoid nuclear blackmail by South Africa. (b) Economically. (a) Politically. Far from saving Nigeria from the avarice and corruption of its civilian leaders.

memories of the Caliphate of Sokoto still linger as ordinary people and politicians alike dream of establishing an independent Islamic state of northern Nigeria. of all Africa’s anomalous states—and there are many—Nigeria remains one of its most fragile. (iii) And in the north. (v) There is tremendous short of faith amongst the common man as the difficulties currently confronting the FG are at least partly of its own making. Even today.This has led to drug pedalling which is a source of worry. radicalism of religion mostly by Muslim youths has slowly manifested in this country. (vi) This failure of the government has had calls for secession of this or that region. the Federal Government (FG) continues to face numerous challenges to its authority. home of the large oil industry. (f) Due to rampant corruption and under utilisation of oil exploration. experiences serious oil spills and other environmental problems. (iv) Indeed. (ii) In the south-south. The near miss bomb attack on Flight 251 from Amsterdam to New York by a Nigerian national is one such testimony. (e) Now. Environmental issues. Waste management including sewage treatment. abusive.9%. hundreds of thousands of them are drawn to more radical proposals and the individuals who make them. Decades of corrupt. the Movement for the Actualization of the Sovereign State of Biafra (MASSOB) is fuelling and channelling Igbo desires for an independent homeland. (g) (h) Cybercrime has perpetrated and is an undesirable trend. the linked processes of .This can become a hotbed for terrorist activities if it is not controlled and remains a major worry for the West. (i) In the south-east. the Movement for the Survival of the Ogoni People (MOSOP) and the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) are working in different ways to free this oil producing region from Abuja’s control. With little faith left in either mainstream politics or politicians. Nigeria's Delta region. and inept government have left millions of Nigerians feeling frustrated and desperate. the rate of unemployment is high at 4.55 the country asunder.

7% rural and 48. and even conservative estimates conclude that more than 20% of the world's black population lives in Nigeria. As of 2004.1 deaths per 1000 live births. while 54. the birth rate is significantly higher than the death rate.6%). were killed in the fighting. (j) Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa and the United Nations estimates that the population in 2009 was at 154. Some of the 'solutions' have been disastrous to the environment. resulting in untreated waste being dumped in places where it can pollute waterways and groundwater. Presently. and sleeping sickness. at 40. Nigeria is the eighth most populous country in the world.5 people per square kilometer. but the attendance rate for secondary education is only 29% (32% for males. in Jan 2010.729.. and climate change or global warming are the major environmental problems in Nigeria.3% of the population is between 0–14 years of age. which is located in Plateau state between the country's Muslim north and Christian south. distributed as 51. one out of every four Africans is Nigerian. Another . (m) Sectarian violence broke out in the city of Jos.4 and 16.3% urban. and general living conditions in Nigeria are poor. and the rate for men (75. About Nigeria.H. health care.7%) is higher than that for women (60. mostly Muslims. the percentage is of children under five has gone up rather than down between 1990 and 2003 and infant mortality is 97. like many developing countries. tertiary education was improved so that it would reach every subregion of Nigeria. malaria. and with a population density of 167. Life expectancy is 47 years (average male/female) and just over half the population has access to potable water and appropriate sanitation. 27% for females). Education is provided free by the government. According to current data. 2006 estimates claim 42. At least 325 people. 68% of the population is literate. After the 1970s oil boom. (l) Education is also in a state of neglect.6% is between 15–65. spearheaded by the W. to combat polio and malaria that has been met with controversy in some regions. The education system has been described as "dysfunctional" largely because of decaying institutional infrastructure.000.56 deforestation and soil degradation. (k) Health. there has been a vaccination drive.O.9 per 1000 people respectively. suffers from a polio crisis as well as periodic outbreaks of cholera.

(c) Nigeria retains membership in the Non-Aligned Movement. 131. Nigeria was also a founding member of the Organisation for African Unity (now the African Union). Nigeria is also a member of the International Criminal Court. it offered more than rhetoric to the African National Congress (ANC) by taking a committed tough line with regard to the racist regime and their incursions in southern Africa. including garnering support for Angola's MPLA. Nigeria readily sent troops to the Congo at the behest of the United Nations shortly after independence (and has maintained membership since that time). Nigeria has additionally founded regional cooperative efforts in West Africa. and aiding anti-colonial struggles in Mozambique. (a) Nigeria's foreign policy was soon tested in the 1970s after the country emerged united from its own civil war and quickly committed itself to the liberation struggles going on in the Southern Africa sub-region. and in late November 2006 organized an Africa-South America Summit in Abuja to promote what some attendees termed "South-South" linkages on a variety of fronts. SWAPO in Namibia. and Zimbabwe (then Rhodesia) military and economically. 1971.57 round of violence occurred in Jos in March. Nigeria also supported several Pan African and pro-self government causes in the 1970s. (d) Nigeria has remained a key player in the international oil industry since the 1970s. Its status as a major . The victims were mostly Christians who were hacked to death in their sleep. and has tremendous influence in West Africa and Africa on the whole. Though Nigeria never sent an expeditionary force in that struggle. The number of fatalities ranged from 200 to 500. in addition to expediting large sums to aid anti-colonial struggles. from which it was temporarily expelled in 1995 under the Abacha regime. economic and military organizations respectively. Desirable Trends and Issues of National Security Concern. functioning as standard-bearer for ECOWAS and ECOMOG. and maintains membership in Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries OPEC which it joined in July. (b) With this African-centred stance. and the Commonwealth of Nations. Local officials suspected the attackers were seeking revenge for the murders in January.

Sierra Leone 1997– 1999. and presently in Sudan's Darfur region under an African Union mandate. (f) The Nigerian Military consist of an Army. as well as to adopt preventive and rescue measures required in certain circumstances as decided by the competent authorities. Jamaica and Kenya. Nigeria has repositioned its military as an African peacekeeping force. (e) Military. The military in Nigeria have played a major role in the country's history since independence. (g) Taking advantage of its role as Africa's most populated country. The Nigerian Military are charged with protecting The Federal Republic of Nigeria. notably the United States and more recently China and developing countries. with his successor. Various juntas have seized control of the country and ruled it through most of its history. (e) . 132. Since 1995. notably Ghana. Long Term Objectives. (f) To participate in peacekeeping missions The goals set for the defence and security agencies are as follows:- . (b) To ensure the territorial integrity. Its last period of rule ended in 1999 following the sudden death of former dictator Sani Abacha in 1998. The mission of the national armed defence forces are as follows:(a) To defend the vital interests of the country against all forms of aggression. Ivory Coast (1997–1999). handing over power to the democratically elected government of Olusegun Obasanjo in 1999. a Navy and an Air Force. the Nigerian military through ECOMOG mandates have been deployed as peacekeepers in Liberia (1997).58 petroleum producer figures prominently in its sometimes vicissitudinous international relations with both developed countries. and supporting peacekeeping efforts especially in West Africa. To participate in protecting agencies and property. promoting Nigeria's global security interests. including terrorism. (c) (d) To ensure the normal functioning of state institutions. sovereignty and freedom of citizens. Abdulsalam Abubakar.

colour. so far is that there is a need for continuous dialogue between all parties in the process of transition in order to make peace last — peace being understood as more than the mere absence of war. (ii) (iii) To defend and consolidate national unity. The dialogue should address the question of power relations and should be kept alive between the state and civil society. Ensure freedom from discrimination on grounds of race. and the communities represented by citizens and interest groups in both urban and rural areas in the country. tribe. sex. educational infrastructure. (iv) (v) (vi) (g) To safeguard the internal and external security of the state. creed. (iii) Develop long term plans and institute measures to tackle natural calamities. (ii) To ensure economic prosperity and a diplomatic status in world politics to ensure regional security. To defend and ensure the normal functioning of democratic institutions. . The short term goals would cover the following aspects:(a) (b) (c) Infrastructure development. To ensure the fundamental rights and liberties of citizens. sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country. EU and India as well as following:(i) To give careful attention to regional inequalities and formulate a development strategy for rural development including serious measures to combat poverty. or religion. (d) Improve basic amenities. Short Term. the political forces in government and in the opposition. The consensus To ensure peace and stability in the country. (h) To have a strategic partnership with African countries and major global players like the USA. health services and initiate measures for poverty alleviation. and To maintain law and public order. An effort is required to reach a situation of functional equilibrium between decision-makers at national and international levels. the latter involving more than just political parties.59 (i) To guarantee the independence. 133. Institute measures to check corruption and human rights violations.

60 (e) (f) Introduce modern agricultural practices. (h) Develop an agricultural base for the nation to achieve self-sufficiency. . To prepare a conducive environment for the un-employed to employ themselves by directing more re-sources to the self-employment sectors (g) To develop the self-employment sector in rural areas so as to reduce the rate of migration to urban areas.

Indian Prime Minister Dr. India is the second largest purchaser of Nigeria's oil which fulfills 20 to 25 percent of India's domestic oil demand. After Nigeria's independence. Political Relations. India supported independence of African countries from colonial rule and established its diplomatic mission in 1958 . India established a diplomatic mission in Nigeria in 1958. In 1999. Manmohan Singh became the first Indian leader to visit Nigeria in 45 years and addressed a joint session of the Parliament of Nigeria. Nigeria has joined India in becoming the largest democracies in their respective regions with diverse religious and ethnic populations. marked by mutual respect and understanding. Both nations were colonized by the British Empire. ethnic diversity and geo-political situation have created affinity and mutual goodwill between the two countries. 135. This year we are celebrating the 50th anniversary of establishments of bilateral relations.Nigeria Relations 134. Both countries have been in the forefront of the worldwide anti-colonial and anti-apartheid struggle. The bilateral relations between the Republic of India and the Federal Republic of Nigeria have considerably expanded in recent years with both nations building strategic and commercial ties. Since the restoration of democracy in 1998. In 2007. India and Nigeria have cordial and friendly relations.61 CHAPTER VIII ISSUES OF RELEVANCE AND CONCERN TO IOR AND INDIA Development Of India . Indian oil companies are also involved in oil drilling operations in Nigeria and have plans to set up refineries there. There are no contentious issues between the two. With bilateral oil trade valued at US$10 billion. Both are members of the Commonwealth of Nations. both nations sought to develop strong relations. Both India and Nigeria are members of . G-77 and the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM). 136. the Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru made a state visit to Nigeria. Similarities in colonial struggle.two years before Nigeria officially gained independence from British rule. the democratically-elected President of Nigeria Olusegun Obasanjo made a state visit to India and was the chief guest at India's Republic Day celebrations. even before Nigeria became independent in 1960. Background. In 1962. They possess diverse natural and economic resources and are the largest economies in their respective regions.

In 2007 & 2008. Bilateral annual trade turnover exceeds US$ 10 billion. India’s exports to Nigeria have shown a healthy upward trend and grew from US$ 293. EEPC. etc. CHEMEXCIL. Nigeria is strongly opposed to all forms of terrorism. Later in May 2006.71 million in 1999-2000 to US$ 644 million in 2004-2005 & US$ 902 mn in 2006-07. (a) Trade. With a population of 140 million and considerable revenue from oil exports. NAM. mainly because of large Indian imports of crude oil and the amount of trade deficit is . jute industry. visited Nigeria from October 30 – November 2 to explore the opportunities in view of the ongoing reforms in the power sector. balance of trade has been in Nigeria’s favour. IEEMA. G-15. (b) Traditionally. Nigeria is the largest trading partner of India in Africa. Both share common perspectives on international political. delegations from RITES. India and Nigeria have regularly exchanged visits at governmental and commercial levels to strengthen bilateral economic and commercial relations. A multi-product Buyer-Seller Meet was organized by the EEPC in Lagos in March 2004.2005 and the BSMs organized by CAPEXIL. A delegation from the Pharmaceuticals Exports Promotion Council of India (PHARMEXCIL) visited Nigeria in July 2005. G-77 and the Commonwealth and have collaborated at various international organizations. Nigerian companies participated in INDIASOFT events in 2004 and INDIASOFT . 137. Delegations from the Electronics and Computer Software Export Promotion Council (ESC) visited Nigeria from February 2004 and again in March 2006. From the Indian side. Chemexcil held a BSM in Nigeria. However. A 16-member delegation from IEEMA. several trade missions from states in Nigeria and Chambers of Commerce have visited India. A delegation from the National Thermal Power Corporation visited Nigeria in August 2005. WTO. In June 2006. the Electronics and Computer Software Export Promotion Council (ESC) held BSM in Lagos. Commercial and Trade Relations . Bilateral trade between the two countries has been in the vicinity of US$ 3 billion in the last few years. etc.62 UN. CII. came to Nigeria in 2002 to hold discussions with their respective counterpart organizations and identify areas of cooperation. PLEXCONCIL. last year reached US$ 8 bn thus making Nigeria the largest trading partner of India in the African continent. a high-powered NTPC delegation made a presentation to the President of Nigeria. social and development issues and these have manifested in various meetings at UN. During the last three years.

(d) India’s main imports from Nigeria. Pharmaceutical products. Its reserves are currently around 30 billion barrels and are estimated to rise to 40 billion barrels by 2010. the Indo- Nigerian Bank Ltd. cashew nuts. The Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) is discussing setting up a refinery in Edo State. automobiles. (l) Air Services. rubber and articles thereof. rice. cotton and gum Arabic. Oil constitutes more than 96% of Indian imports from Nigeria. India has also emerged the 4th largest destination for Nigerian non-oil exports. However. machinery and mechanical appliances. and Aptech have signed agreements with local companies to set up training institutes and to promote their products in Nigeria. (g) Banking. metal scrap. Mittal Investments etc are also pursuing refinery projects in Nigeria. technical institutions and other prestigious organizations. Ashapoora started exploring Barytes for domestic use. Nigeria is a major oil producing country. (f) Refineries.g. Direct India-Nigeria air services were resumed in June 2005 with the commencement of Bellview Airlines flights between Lagos . (e) India-Nigeria Cooperation in Hydrocarbons Sector. (c) India’s main items of export. wood. Essar. with the commencement of production at the Bonga Oil Field. In endNovember 2005.63 million bpd which of late has gone down due to unrest in the region. (h) IT. plastic and articles thereof. iron and steel. (k) Pharmaceutical.63 dependent on the price of oil. MOS (Mines) Dr. electrical machinery and equipment. Taurian Group successfully participated in the bids for 4 coal blocs. Crude oil. e. Satyam. Nigeria’s daily output rose to 2. S. Some Indian private sector oil companies. cereals. iron and steel.. They have also rendered high quality software development services to Nigerian banking. NIIT. Earlier. State Bank of India’s joint venture in Nigeria. (j) Mining. Reddy held discussions with Nigerian Minister of Mines in October 2007. Major Indian IT companies like Infosys. Indian companies have also shown interest in mining sector. has since merged with six other banks to form Sterling Bank. Several Indian pharmaceutical companies like Ranbaxy have also set up local manufacturing factories in Nigeria. paper and paper products and cotton textiles.

Singh. including two former Heads of State. There are many . 138. The Chief of the Army Staff. In February 2008. fast attack patrol boats. D. India has assisted Nigeria in establishing the Nigerian Defence Academy and other training institutions for all the three services from 1963-1986. Bakshi of NDC conducted programme at the National War College. both on self-financing basis as well as under SCAAP Programme. An Indian Army officer (rank of Colonel) attended the National War College Course (1998-99) at Abuja. assistance in establishing joint ventures and up gradation of Nigerian dockyards. 139. Defence Cooperation . SCAAP programme is popular in Nigeria and it has been utilizing almost all the slots. (b) Visits. However. Azazi visited India followed by the visit of Nigerian Defence Minister for the DEFEXPO 2008.000-30.64 and Mumbai. General J. the number of slots has been increased to 75 which have been further increased to 85 after the India Africa Forum Summit. The scope of defence cooperation is being enlarged to include defence trade and technical cooperation. Potential areas are supply of armament and ammunition. (c) SCAAP. During the visit of Hon’ble Prime Minister of India.J. During the visit of Hon’ble Prime Minister of India to Nigeria. India has been providing training to the Nigerian Armed Forces personnel in training institutions in India. In Lagos. Chief of Defence Staff Gen A.000 engaged in trading and manufacturing. There is a strong Indian community of about 25. Indian also gifted communication equipment worth US$ 1 mn to Nigerian armed force. a MoU on Defence cooperation was signed. (a) The Nigerian Armed Forces purchased 2000 Tata trucks in 1997-98. O. About 3 dozen slots annually have been allotted to Nigeria for training of their officials in various short-term courses in India under Special Commonwealth African Assistance Plan (SCAAP). trainer aircraft. helicopters. visited Nigeria from November 27 – December 1. industry and working as professionals. Recently Vice Admiral Pradeep Kaushiva and Major General G. Most of these officers have risen to high ranks in Nigeria. A meeting between the two sides on the Bilateral Air Services Agreement (BASA) is due shortly. 2005 and held wide-ranging talks aimed at strengthening cooperation in the defence sector. in 2007 it was discontinued. there is a CBSE-affiliated Indian school. Indian Community. Besides.

65 Indian Cultural/business Associations engaged in organizing cultural. China secured four oil drilling licenses and agreed to invest USD 4 billion in oil and infrastructure development projects in Nigeria. China agreed to buy a controlling stake in the Kaduna oil . training and technology to the Nigerian armed forces. 1971. Both nations signed a memorandum of understanding on establishing a strategic partnership. which has supplied arms. Furthermore. A disheartening development has been the kidnapping of Indian nationals in Niger Delta. In 2004 and again in 2006. Since May 2006 – 35 Indians were kidnapped in various incidents by the militants but subsequently released. military and political support. charity etc events from time to time. China has supported Nigeria's bid for a seat in the U. 142. China helped develop and launch the Nigerian communications satellite (NigComSat-1) to expand cellular and internet networks in Central Africa. China 140. The bilateral relations between the Federal Republic of Nigeria and the People's Republic of China have expanded on growing bilateral trade and strategic cooperation. energy and infrastructure development. China has provided extensive economic. Reacting to the hesitation of the United States and other Western nations in providing military aid in fighting insurgents in the oil-rich Niger Delta to protect Nigeria's oil resources. Nigeria has since become an important source of oil and petroleum for China's rapidly-growing economy and Nigeria is looking to China for help in achieving high economic growth. Chinese President Hu Jintao made state visits to Nigeria and addressed a joint session of the National Assembly of Nigeria. 141. telecommunications. Relations between the two nations grew closer as a result of the international isolation and Western condemnation of Nigeria's military regimes (1970s-1998). Security Council. equipment. the Nigerian government has developed close military cooperation with China. and both nations agreed to a fourpoint plan to improve bilateral relations – a key component of which was to expand trade and investments in agriculture. During Chinese President Hu Jintao's visit in 2006. Commerce. Nigeria and the People's Republic of China established formal diplomatic relations on February 10. Both nations also signed a USD 311 million agreement to develop cooperation in communications and space programs.N. Strategic cooperation.

India lacks the material capabilities and the profile to emulate or directly compete with China in Africa. From his assessment this is the century of China to lead the world. really. The no strings angle is critical.66 refinery that would produce 110. agriculture. The two leaders also inked deals designed to consolidate what Hu called "a strategic partnership. In 2006 the CNOOC purchased a share for USD 2. arms." including providing Nigeria with $500 million in Chinese export credits. Nigerian militants have also threatened to attack Chinese workers and projects in the Niger Delta. China is a huge potential source of no-strings aid. In all. In 2005 Nigeria agreed to supply Petro China with 30. the "flooding" of Nigerian markets with cheap Chinese goods has become a sensitive political issue. Nigeria agreed to give China four oil exploration licenses in exchange for a commitment to invest about $4 billion in refining and power generation in Nigeria. petroleum. 143.000 textile workers over the course of a decade. Many analyst have suggested that African leaders see China as an alternative to America. 144. Way Forward for India 145. and investment.3 billion in an oil exploration block owned by a former defence minister. China also agreed to grant a loan of USD 1 billion to Nigeria to help it upgrade and modernize its railway networks. and a large Chinese business delegation is visiting Nigeria to identify additional investment opportunities. as – combined with the importation of second-hand European products – it has adversely affected domestic industries.000 barrels a day. China has also pledged to invest USD 267 million to build the Lekki free trade zone near Lagos. and building infrastructure. Nigeria's president made this quite clear in his meetings with Chinese President Hu Jintao. However.000 barrels a day of oil for USD 800 million. is to shun Taiwan. it cannot ignore Beijing’s formidable . Nigeria and China signed seven agreements. In the eyes of African leaders like Obasanjo. At the same time. as shown by Hu's visit. The only rule. China has invested substantially in various sectors of the Nigerian economy in the past few years. Nigeria also promised to give preference to Chinese oil firms for contracts for oil exploration in the Niger Delta and Chad Basin. The approach seems to be paying off. particularly in telecommunications. especially in textiles. and led to closure of 65 textile mills and the laying-off of 150. lecture or pressure countries about human rights or democracy or anything else. trade. It does not hector. Unlike Washington. In 2006. Beijing is all about business.

as compared to 48 who had been in Beijing two years earlier. starting with the 2006 Angola debacle and. Emulationists vs. gas. In this perspective. refuse any possible comparison with China and underline India’s “absolute uniqueness”. it is all about competition: Africa is just another strategic context in which India will have to blindly follow and match China’s manoeuvres. On the one hand. On the political front. Invite anyone to talk about Africa in New Delhi and you will almost certainly end up discussing China and listening to a lamenting chorus on India’s incapacity to hold on to the “dragon’s safari”. India’s public oil. an Africa policy is actually unnecessary. in a large Ethiopian rail project. 147. 146.67 influence and areas where both actors’ interests are increasingly clashing. For these fans of realpolitik principles. While encouraging a profound self-confidence in the merits of a supposed “Indian model” (which no one really cares to define) this option has often bred strategic inertia. On the other hand. For example. the 2008 India-Africa summit in Delhi attracted merely 14 African heads of state and senior government leaders. The solution could reside in a long-term exploration of specific sectors in which India’s relatively untapped added value can be transformed into a strategic advantage over China. 149. emulationist strategies have paid a high price because they ignore the fact that India simply lacks the financial and political capabilities to compete with the Chinese. 148. more recently. you have the singularists (including an increasing number of disillusioned emulationists) who. Both approaches have failed to serve Indian interests in Africa and have often led to sub-optimal policy-making. These disillusioned voices represent the hawkish emulationists – those who believe that India should follow and match Chinese moves in Africa step by step. Nor have singularist strategies proven effective. Singularists. at the other extreme. The result is a general . without any delay or hesitation. These liberal Indian optimists take particular pleasure from African accusations depicting the Chinese as “mercantilist mandarins”. if it wants to keep its great power ambition intact. mining and infrastructure companies have a long record of bids and chances lost to the Chinese. singularists therefore refuse the emulationists’ competitive logic and like to believe that Africans will eventually recognize the costs of the Chinese model and opt for India as their privileged partner. Overtly confident.

education and health services. intensity of defence relations. India should identify attributes that distinguish it positively from China and that could therefore be explored as a strategic advantage in the long run. How then to overcome this extremist stalemate and optimize India’s presence in Africa? China’s clout in Africa gives it an uncontestable advantage over India: trade volume and preferential tariff lines. instead of emulating China or. -education and -governance. regularity of bilateral dialogues or strategic partnerships.Beijing is ahead of Delhi in most. India has carved out niches such as information and telecommunication technologies. and plays a crucial role in fostering skills and human resources that are critical for Africa to develop in a sustainable way. . 153. These projects require considerable investments but. on the other hand. While China’s economic relations with Africa are actually fuelling this perverse effect. but also to the quality of their economic growth. 152. refusing any comparison with its Northern neighbour. especially in the private sector. including a significant number of small and medium enterprises. 150. Thus. Moving beyond the narrow Chinese economic focus on resources will also protect African countries from the “Dutch disease” – the dependence on the export of natural resources and a high exchange rate that stifles productivity and international competitiveness of the domestic industrial and services sectors. Unlike the state-centric Chinese model largely focused on resource extraction and necessary infrastructure. 151. it is teaching the continent how to fish itself. India’s economic presence in Africa is marked by the predominance of its private sector. in the long term. The Indian sponsored Pan-African e-Network (in partnership with the African Union) links 53 countries through tele-medicine. speed and effectiveness of aid and credit lines. Beyond resources and infrastructure.68 disinterest in looking at India’s presence in Africa in comparative terms and a consequent undervaluation of the continent’s importance to India’s external interests. scope of diplomatic influence. if not all these indicators. India’s business model offers healing instruments by stimulating local productivity. New Delhi should not shy away from underlining and publicizing this in bilateral and multilateral settings: instead of just “giving fish” and perpetuating Africa’s dependence on external powers. quality. Business Model: “Teaching How to Fish”. they will pay off as African countries start to recognize India’s added value in contributing not only to the quantity.

By 2008.000 personnel involved in peacekeeping. India and Africa share a geographical proximity and several contact points that need to be explored. such as the IBSA naval forces. And India’s Technical and Economic Cooperation programme (ITEC) has seen such success among the thousands of African students and diplomats who have chosen India for training since the 1960s. offer a direct advantage over the Chinese. And the only direct flight connecting Ethiopia to Beijing stops over in New Delhi. creation of new listening posts. at least in the East African security context. who are also building up their military presence across the continent. the new AFRICOM. By keeping these crucial sea lanes of communication and strategic chokepoints (including the Gulf of Aden and the Mozambique channel) secure. 157. it is on the East African coast that India faces a specific advantage as a potential security provider. humanitarian. There are no direct flights linking Johannesburg with Shanghai or Beijing. The piracy threat along the Somali and East African coast. India’s recent initiative to host the first annual Indian Ocean Naval Symposium in Delhi (from which China was excluded). India had emerged as the largest contributor to UN mandated operations in Africa. and electoral missions. offers the Indian Navy a superb opportunity to develop its blue water ambitions. could further leverage this advantage. Location: Proximity and Overlapping Security Interests. with a cumulative effort totalling more than 30. but Mumbai is less than nine hours away from this major South African air hub. 156. African countries are already inclined to recognize Delhi’s added value in fostering sustainable economic growth: India remains the sole Asian member country of the African Union’s Capacity Building Foundation. Instead.69 154. Connected by the Western Indian Ocean. . per se. But this commitment does not. and the supply of vessels. as well as its commitment to revive the moribund Indian Ocean Rim Association for Regional Cooperation are important steps in exploring proximity to and overlapping security interests with Africa as an advantage over China. 158. 155. India will increase its delivery capacity and assume a strategic position. often stretching wide across the ocean. Occasional tactical triangulations with other security partners. that it is now undergoing rapid expansion. and by developing the naval capabilities of the East African states through increased joint exercises. or the EU and NATO naval forces in the Gulf of Aden.

India has a distinct advantage: in stark contrast to the radical ideological and interventionist Chinese moves during the 1950s and 1960s. But as a traditional “bridging” or “positive power”. thus responding to specific African interests and. China and India are both situated in the Northern Hemisphere. India’s vibrant base of local government institutions and its independent judicial system based on the rule of law are two other areas in which India can share its unique expertise through technical cooperation. For example. However. India could perhaps shed its traditional inhibitions and start practicing its moralistic foreign policy discourse on democracy and human rights. outflank China. at least in subtle and indirect ways. at the same time. little suggests that African governments have in practice attempted to replicate the political features that sustain the great Chinese transformation since 1978. As a founding member of the Community of Democracies. but paradoxically are also competing ferociously to become leaders of the “Global South”. Advantage At the height of the “China in Africa” hype. Democracy: The Regime. Instead. be it during the trade negotiations at Doha or. Delhi played a much . Delhi faces the opportunity to explore this “regime advantage” over China in Africa. Diplomacy: Southern Power 162. including Nigeria’s Vice-President who expressed his country’s interest in learning from India’s successful experience with federal democracy. African governments were often said to be keen to replicate China’s centralized and illiberal political architecture. Delhi’s emulationists often despise India’s democracy as a central obstacle to their country’s external performance and often envy the Chinese authoritarian capacity in “getting things done” in Africa.70 159. more recently. Without falling into the temptation to export or impose its political institutions on Africa. at the climate change summit in Copenhagen. 160. nine African delegations attended the International Conference on Federalism hosted by New Delhi in 2007. Several African countries have expressed interest in working with the Election Commission of India to study and replicate India’s unique electronic voting system. 161. unprecedented levels of sustained economic growth have actually reinvigorated Africa’s democratic competitiveness and pluralist institutions.

it is a founding member of the G-77 of developing nations and held its presidency twice. and 8. For example. A final potential advantage resides in the cultural proximity between Africa and India. The large Indian diaspora plays a vital factor in this regard: a 2001 estimate identified close to one hundred thousand Indian citizens residing in Africa. 15. India’s leading role as a “Colombo Power” in creating the Non-Alignment movement at Bandung and its central role within the Afro-Asian UN block of the 1960s has thus earned it a persisting respectability as a “Southern power”. 25. For the increasing number of African investors and students who seek opportunities abroad. India is also a member of the influential Commonwealth organization and at the heart of the impressive Southern trilateral (and tri-continental) India-Brazil-South Africa (IBSA) axis that gives it a strategic advantage to engage with the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) and Sub-saharan Africa.000 in Zimbabwe. This profile offers Delhi a distinct advantage that. 167. Their local contacts also often present Delhi with privileged channels to access key political figures and represent Indian interests in moments of crisis. Unlike the more recent and radically segregated Chinese “labour diaspora” that has often led to frictions and protests in Nigeria and parts of Africa. remains largely unexplored because many of the old time Africanist diplomats who served in the Ministry of External Affairs have retired over the last decade. unfortunately.000 in Nigeria). with more than half in Eastern and Southern Africa.000 in Madagascar. unlike China. Diaspora: The Privileged Access Channel . 163. beyond geographic proximity. English-speaking India therefore offers . but well below the levels experienced in China. India also offers a much more familiar and open society: racism against Africans in India is not uncommon. there are more than one million people of Indian origin who have settled in Africa for many generations (close to one million in South Africa. 164. At the same time. these communities of Indian origin are fully integrated and often interested in offering their business expertise as consultants to Indian investment projects. 166. On top of this more recent immigrant community. 165.71 more constructive diplomatic role in supporting the African independence movements in the United Nations.

could lend it a long-term advantage over China and other competitors. optimize its policy-making process and infuse its Africa policy with greater strategic depth. . Exploring the Advantage. and more than 10. where India offers Nigeria an added value that.000 African students enroll annually in Indian universities. Focusing on these specific sectors. underlined that “we have an opportunity to enjoy a privileged position in many African countries like Nigeria that we would be foolish not to develop. strategically explored.72 a much more attractive destination: an increasing number of African businessmen permanently reside in Delhi and Mumbai. Shashi Tharoor. 168. beyond the options much in vogue with offensive emulationists or passive singularists. the former Indian Minister of State for External Relations.” This “opportunity” resides precisely in the five dimensions discussed above. 169. many of them sponsored by the Indian government. who focused on relations with Nigeria. will also help India to clarify its priorities.

Human resource development. India too has a fair share of Muslim population living in harmony since ages. Science and technology. have a vast scope to work together in the India’s relation with Nigeria is likely to grow considerably in the next decade and there exists a vast potential for the same. Public health. Steel and small scale Industries. India and Nigeria following fields:(a) (b) (c) (d) (e) (f) (g) (h) (i) (j) (k) (l) 171. India can play the role of big brother eg trader. Hydroelectric power generation. investor and aid provider. Also. India is the world’s largest democracy run by a coalition government and Nigeria has adopted a democratic form of system headed by a coalition government. Agriculture revolution. . Tourism. military training and combating terrorism. Communication. Maritime activities.73 CHAPTER IX CONCLUSION 170. Nigeria can draw lessons from India’s success in economic reforms and work towards elevation from poverty and green revolution. Information technology development. India has openly supported the pro democracy movement in Nigeria. Economic and trade relations between the two countries have grown in the recent years. Security. There are a number of commonalities between India and Nigeria ranging from sharing boundaries with various countries to ethnic and religious diversities. Road and rail network development.

7.cia.wikipedia.74 BIBLIOGRAPHY 1. Internet web sites referred 2. 4.wikipedia. http://www.org/military/world/indo-prc http://www.com http://www. 11.org.photius.com/opinion/display http://www.economist.gov/cia/publication/factbook/index:html http://www.org/wiki/Hugo_Ch%C3%A1vez Library of Congress – Federal Research Division Country Profile Refining American Strategy in Africa by Steven Metz . 21. 22.html 3. 9.org/military/world/indo-prc http://www. 12. 10.defencejournal. 19.htm http://www. 8.globalsecurity. 13.org/military/world/india/army.nigeria. http://www.factfile.en.com/opinion/display http://www. 16.com/opinion http://en.com/countries/nigeria/national_security/nigeria_national_se curity_nigeria_and_the_un~2626.cia.globalsecurity.wikipedia.org/wiki http://www.com http://www. http://www.com http://www.globalsecurity.htm http://www. // cia. 20.nigeria.gov/cia/publication/factbook/index:html http://www. 18.en.com/opinion Http.org/wiki http://www. 15.defense-i.defencejournal.org/military/world/india/army.com http://www.globalsecurity.defense-i. 6. 5. 14.economist. 17.

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