This action might not be possible to undo. Are you sure you want to continue?
SEPT. 25, 2013 TO: JOE MONAHAN
FROM: Bruce Donisthorpe RE: SEPT. 25TH ABQ CC7 SURVEY SUMMARY & HIGHLIGHTS
METHODOLOGY Automated phone dialing survey using established demographic methodological standards to 432 likely voting Demcratic, Republican and Independent registered households with known voting history in general elections from the 7th City Council District in the City of Albuquerque, New Mexico. Surveys were conducted using this method between 6 pm and 9 pm. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted or adjusted at the top-line to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, region, and other established demographic standards and variables. The margin of sampling error for the surveys conducted for this questions is 4.7% with a 95% level of confidence for the interviews conducted in this survey. TOP LINE: Question: In the race for City Councillor in your area, who would you support between Matthew Biggs, Diane Gibson and Janice Arnold-Jones? ARNOLD-JONES GIBSON BIGGS UNDEC Margin of Error: 4.7% 45.8% 28.0% 11.6% 14.6%
432 Likely Voters, City of Albuquerque Bruce Donisthorpe has been polling professionally since 2006. He has conducted several polls for Joe Monahan’s political blog in the 2008, 2010 and 2012 campaigns. And conducted a survey on Mayor Berry’s public approval rating last year. He was active in polling the City of Albuquerque elections in 2009, in which he accurately forecasted Berry’s win and the upset victory by City Councillor Dan Lewis in Albuquerque City Counil District 5.
ANALYSIS OF RESULTS THE BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT: Albuquerque City Councillor Janice Arnold-Jones has a 46%28% lead over challenger Diane Gibson in our survey of likely voters in the 7th City Council District. Matthew Biggs garnered about 12% of the vote while almost 15% was undecided. Ms. Arnold-Jones captured 71% of the REP voters, 43% of INDP voters and 29% of DEM respondents on the poll. She needs to pick up additional support among undecided REP and INDP voters – while holding her support in the DEM and INDP camps to get over the 50% vote figure to avoid a runoff in this race. Ms. Gibson showed strength among her party (DEMs) in this district which has a 15-point edge in registration favoring the DEMs. As expected, she had strong support amongst Progressive and Liberal households and needs to increase her performance in those areas before election day to ensure a second-round campaign. Challenger Biggs is running best among men and hispanic voters, but trails the other two candidates by a wide margin. Undecided voters in the race are predominantly DEM and INDP voters who are largely moderate in philosophyand are most concerned about jobs and education issues.
OTHER SURVEY QUESTIONS VOTER IDEOLOGY: Overall, the district is equally divided between Progressive/Liberal voters (33%), Moderate voters (31%) and Conservative voters (31%). DEMs hold a 15 point registration edge over REPs in the district. DEM likely voters largely consist of a huge bloc of progressive and liberal voters (about 48% overall, equally divided between progressive and liberal). Moderate DEMs account for 1/3 of the DEM base, leaving about 15% of DEM LVs who identify themselves at conservative voters. REP voters have a 55% bloc of conservative voters and another 26% who identify themselves as moderates. Among INDPs, they are pretty much 1/3 Prog/Lib, 1/3 Mod and 1/3 Conservative. In the City Council Race: Gibson is leading among Progressive (60%) and Liberal (56%) voters, while Arnold-Jones has the lead among Moderate (51%) and Conservative (72%) voters. Biggs is doing best among an interesting coalition of Progressive (21%) and Conservative voters (12%). In the undecided voter pool, 18% of Moderates, 14% of Liberals, 12% of Conservative and 9% of Progressive voters have not made their minds up on a candidate as of this survey. TOP VOTER ISSUE The Jobs/Economy issue is far and away the leading issue at 49%, attracting 44% of DEM, 57% of REP and 46% of INDP voting groups. Education is the next most important issue at 20% of all voters, followed by Crime (17%), Environment (6%) and the Albuquerque Police Department (6%). APD is a bigger issue – although small overall – among DEM and INDP voters.
In the CC7 Race: Janice Arnold-Jones has solid leads among Jobs/Economy (56%) and Crime (52%) voters and has a small lead among Education voters (38-34 over Gibson). Gibson has a large lead among Environment (60%) voters and a small lead among APD voters (36-27 over Arnold-Jones). MAYORAL RACE Berry has a solid lead in the 7th City Council District with 62% of the overall vote with Dinelli at 26%, Heh at 2.5% and about 10% undecided. Berry has attracted the support of 86% of the REP, 65% of the INDP and 49% of DEM voters. Dinelli has 44% of DEM voters, 16% of INDP voters and 5% of REP voters. In the City Council race: Arnold-Jones claims about 2/3 of the Mayor’s supporters (66%) while the remainder are equally divided between Gibson, Biggs and Undecided. Most of them are DEM and INDP voters who support the Mayor but not Arnold-Jones. Gibson has secured about 67% of the Dinelli vote, while the remainder is divided between Arnold-Jones (15%), Biggs (10%) and Undecided (8%). Almost half of Heh voters are voting for Biggs. In the Mayoral undecided voter pool of voters, 63% are also undecided in the Council race. ABORTION BALLOT REFERENDUM We asked voters if they support or oppose the November ballot referendum to ban most abortions after 20 weeks of pregnancy. The proposed measure is leading in the district, but is within the poll’s margin of error at 44.8%-41.6% with 13.5% undecided. DEM voters oppose the measure by a 53-33 preference, while REP voters favor the measure by a 62-25 margin. INDP voters favor the measure by a 46-43 rate. In the CC7 race: Arnold-Jones is supported by about 2/3 of ballot amendment supporters while Gibson is favored by about 47% of ballot amendment opponents. Those undecided on the ballot measure (about 15%) favor Arnold-Jones with a 46-16 lead over Gibson. MINIMUM WAGE INCREASES: We asked voters if they support or oppose increasing the minimum wage and supporters outnumbered opponents by a 53-37 margin with 10% of voters undecided. That’s a little bit lower than the 66% vote last year which passed the minimum wage hike in the Duke City during the 2012 General Election. About 66% of DEM and 46% of INDP voters support minimum wage increases, while 54% of REP voters oppose them. In the City Council race: Gibson has a 10-point lead among MW supporters (41-31) while Arnold-Jones leads among MW opponents over Gibson by a 70-9 margin. Undecided voters on the measure favor Arnold-Jones 45-12 over Gibson. Demographic Crosstabs in the CC7 race are on the next page.
ABQ CC7 BALLOT TEST DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKOUTS CATEGORY OVERALL
GENDER FEMALE DEM REP INDP MALE DEM REP INDP ETHNICITY ANGLO DEM REP INDP HISPANIC DEM REP INDP PARTY DEM REP INDP IDEOL PROG LIB MOD CONSV UNSURE TOP VOTING ISSUE ABQ POLICE DEP CRIME EDUCATION ENVIRONMENT JOBS/ECON OTHER
BIGGS% GIBSON GIBSON% AR-JONES AR-JN% 11.6% 10% 11% 8% 10% 13% 16% 10% 15% 9% 10% 7% 14% 14% 15% 11% 17% 13% 9% 13% 21% 9% 7% 12% 13% 121 28.0% 29% 47% 9% 30% 22% 39% 7% 16% 29% 51% 8% 29% 19% 28% 4% 17% 44% 8% 17% 61% 56% 23% 23% 27% 198 45.8% 46% 29% 69% 40% 50% 30% 73% 46% 51% 28% 76% 42% 50% 41% 64% 50% 29% 71% 43% 9% 21% 51% 72% 33%
UND% 14.6% 15% 13% 14% 21% 14% 15% 10% 22% 11% 11% 10% 15% 17% 15% 21% 17% 14% 12% 21% 9% 14% 18% 12% 27%
9% 16% 9% 17% 10% 0%
36% 19% 34% 61% 20% 38%
27% 52% 38% 21% 56% 25%
27% 12% 19% 0% 14% 38%
ABQ MAYOR RACE BERRY DINELLI HEH UNDEC ABORTION BALLOT SUPP OPPOSE UNSURE MIN WAGE SUPP OPPOSE UNSURE
11% 10% 46% 6%
12% 67% 36% 20%
66% 15% 0% 11%
12% 8% 18% 63%
13% 10% 13%
12% 46% 16%
65% 28% 46%
10% 16% 25%
13% 10% 10%
42% 9% 12%
32% 70% 45%
14% 11% 33%
This action might not be possible to undo. Are you sure you want to continue?
We've moved you to where you read on your other device.
Get the full title to continue listening from where you left off, or restart the preview.