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Probability

Chapter

Big Idea

13

Understanding probability helps me describe the world.

Learning Goals

I can list all possible outcomes of a probability experiment. I can explain the similarities and differences between experimental and theoretical probability. I can calculate the theoretical probability of outcomes in a probability experiment. I can determine the experimental probability of outcomes in a probability experiment. I can compare experimental results with the theoretical probability for a probability experiment.

Essential Question

How can probability help me understand and describe the world around me?

Important Words

experimental probability theoretical probability

Exploring Probability

Perform an experiment or examine the given data to calculate experimental probability. Answer questions about experimental probability. Example: Find the experimental probability of rolling an even number. Sahib’s strategy:

I rol l ed a die 10 times and re corded the outcomes.

Trial 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Outcome 1 1 2 3 1 4 5 1 2 4

I rol l ed an even number f our times out of ten. The experimental probability of rol l ing an even number 4 is 10 .

Taylor’s strategy:

I rol l ed a die 20 times and re corded each rol l on a line plot. x x x x 1 x x x x x x 2

x x x x x x x 3 4 5

x x x 6

The even numbers are 2, 4, and 6. I rol l ed a 2 six times, I rol l ed a 4 twice, and I rol l ed a 6 three times. 6 + 2 + 3 = 11 The experimental probability of rol l ing an even number 11 is 20 .

302 CHAPTER 13: Probability

Exploring Probability (continued)

11. Aidan listed the possible outcomes for the die net shown. Classify each outcome as impossible, possible, or certain.

a. I will roll a colour. b. I will roll RED. c. I will roll a 3. d. I will roll a colour whose name has five letters. 12. Brock was listing possible outcomes for the spinner shown. Use the words less likely, equally likely, or more likely to:

2 4

a. compare spinning a 1 to spinning a 3. b. compare spinning a 1 to spinning an even number. c. compare spinning a 1 to spinning a 5.

13. Cohen and Devin wanted to complete 10 trials of an experiment. Cohen wanted to toss one coin 10 times. Devin wanted to toss 10 coins all at once. Explain whether you think these two experiments are the same.

3 1

CHAPTER 13: Probability

303

Exploring Probability (continued)

14. List the possible outcomes in each of the experiments below. a. rolling a die b. flipping a coin c. spinning the spinner shown

YE L

R

ED

W LO

GR

ITE

15. Conduct each of the experiments below. Complete 20 trials. Record the outcomes. a. rolling a die b. flipping a coin c. spinning a spinner like the one shown in question 4

16. Compare your results in question 5 to the outcomes you predicted in question 4. 17. Write the experimental probability of one outcome for each experiment in question 5.

18. Compare your results for question 5 with the results obtained by a classmate. a. How are your results similar? b. How are your results different? c. How was the experimental probability similar? d. How was the experimental probability different?

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CHAPTER 13: Probability

N EE

WH

Experimental probability is a fraction comparing the number of times a specific outcome happens to the number of trials in an experiment.

Exploring Probability (continued)

19. Conduct each of the experiments in question 5 again. Complete 20 trials. Record the outcomes. a. How were the results similar? b. How were the results different? c. How was the experimental probability similar? d. How was the experimental probability different? 10. Combine your results from questions 5 and 9. a. Write the experimental probability of one outcome in each experiment. b. Compare your probabilities with those of a classmate. c. How was the experimental probability similar? d. How was the experimental probability different? 11. Work with a classmate to each conduct 20 more trials of the experiments in question 5. Record the outcomes. a. Combine your results from all 120 trials. b. Write the experimental probability of one outcome in each experiment. c. Compare your experimental probabilities with those of your classmate.

12. What did you notice as you conducted more trials of an experiment?

I can determine the experimental probability of outcomes in a probability experiment.

CHAPTER 13: Probability

305

Probability Problems

Perform an experiment or examine the given data to calculate experimental probability. Answer questions using experimental probability. Example: Natalie flipped a coin 10 times and recorded the results in the table below.

Trial 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Outcome T H H T H T T T T H

What was the experimental probability of Natalie getting tails?

6 in 10 or

6 10

.

Is this what you would have expected?

I thought heads, but more this next time

she woul d get an equal number of tails and since it is an experiment, she got tails a b it time. She coul d get a dif f erent outcome the if she did the same experiment again.

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CHAPTER 13: Probability

Probability Problems (continued)

11. Reese conducted an experiment in which she put red and blue interlocking cubes into a bag. She chose one cube, recorded the colour, and returned the cube to the bag. Her results are shown below.

Colour red blue IIII IIII Tally IIII I IIII Frequency 14 16

a. How many trials did Reese conduct? b. What was the experimental probability of choosing a red cube? c. What was the experimental probability of choosing a blue cube? 12. Brynn is conducting a coin-flipping experiment to determine the probability of flipping heads. She flipped a coin 10 times for each experiment and recorded the results.

Experiment 1 2 3 4 Number of trials 10 10 10 10 Number of heads 4 5 7 5 Number of tails

a. Copy and complete the table to determine the number of tails obtained in each experiment. b. Write the experimental probability of getting heads in each experiment. c. Write the experimental probability of getting tails in each experiment. d. Write the experimental probability of getting heads if you combine all the trials. e. Write the experimental probability of getting tails if you combine all the trials.

CHAPTER 13: Probability

307

Probability Problems (continued)

13. Gilbert is conducting an experiment in which he chooses one block from a bag, records the colour, and returns the block to the bag six times. He completed the experiment three times. His results are shown in the tables below.

Experiment One Trial 1 2 3 4 5 6 Outcome blue yellow green red blue purple Experiment Two Trial 1 2 3 4 5 6 Outcome yellow yellow purple red yellow green Experiment Three Trial 1 2 3 4 5 6 Outcome blue blue green red blue green

a. What was the experimental probability of Gilbert picking a blue block in the first experiment? b. What was the experimental probability of Gilbert picking a blue block in the second experiment? c. What was the experimental probability of Gilbert picking a blue block in the third experiment? d. Why was the experimental probability different for each experiment? 14. Noor and Piper were conducting an experiment to find the probability of spinning the spinner below and having it land on green.

YE

LL O W

GRE

TE HI

E

Noor completed 20 trials and said the experimental probability of landing on green was 10 20 or 0.5. Piper completed 100 trials and said that the experimental probability of landing on green was 30 out of 100 or 0.3. a. Why did the girls get such different results? b. Which of the girls can be more confident in her experimental probability?

308

CHAPTER 13: Probability

N

W

Probability Problems (continued)

15. Hanan played a game where she needed to roll a 6 to win. When she didn’t win, she decided to do an experiment to see what her chances of rolling a 6 were. a. Hanan rolled a die 10 times and recorded the results in the table below. What is the experimental probability of Hanan rolling a 6 in this experiment?

Trial Rolled a 6? 1 No 2 No 3 No 4 Yes 5 No 6 No 7 No 8 No 9 No 10 No

b. Hanan rolled another die 10 times and recorded the results in the table below. What is the experimental probability of Hanan rolling a 6 in this experiment?

Trial Rolled a 6? 1 No 2 No 3 No 4 Yes 5 No 6 No 7 No 8 No 9 Yes 10 No

c. Why were Hanan’s results different in each experiment? d. Complete your own experiment by rolling a die 10 times and recording the outcomes in a table like the ones shown in parts a and b. e. How did your results in part d compare with what you expected to have happen? f. What is the experimental probability of rolling a 6 in your experiment? g. Copy and complete the table below to compile your results.

Experiment 1 2 3 Total Number of trials 10 10 10 30 Number of 6s

h. What is the experimental probability of rolling a 6 in all three experiments? i. Why might you want to combine the results of all three experiments? 16. Why would you choose to complete more trials to find the experimental probability?

I can determine the experimental probability of outcomes in a probability experiment.

CHAPTER 13: Probability

309

Look at Your Chances

List possible outcomes, calculate theoretical probability, and compare theoretical probabilities in the following scenarios. Example: Jaime and Reese are playing a game. Whoever spins the spinner and lands on stripes will win the game. Their spinners are shown below. Jaime’s spinner: Reese’s spinner:

Who has the better chance of winning?

J aime’s spinner: 3 P (stripes) = 6

Reese’s spinner: 1 P (stripes) = 3

I think J aime has a better chance of winning b e cause 3 1 6 is more than 3 . I used a number line to compare the probabilities.

2 0 1

1

6 6

Sixths: Thirds:

0 6 0 3

1 2 3 3 3 3 3 I see that 6 is more than 1 3 because it is closer to 1. The theoretical probability of J aime landing on stripes is greater than the theoretical probability of Reese landing on stripes.

1 6

2 6

3 6

4 6

5 6

I can also see that the area of J aime’s spinner covered by stripes is bigger than the area of Reese’s spinner covered by stripes.

310

CHAPTER 13: Probability

Look at Your Chances (continued)

11. A list of possible outcomes is given below. Suggest an experiment that would result in these outcomes and list three more outcomes for the experiment. a. You choose a red cube, you choose a black cube, you choose an orange cube. b. You roll a one, you roll a three, you roll a five. 12. Jack, Lara, and DeeDee are playing a card game where the object is to collect three of one type of card. They are choosing from the cards shown.

a. Jack needs one tree card to complete his set. What is the theoretical probability that he will choose the card he needs?

Theoretical probability is a fraction comparing the number of outcomes you want to the total number of outcomes.

b. Lara needs one recycle card to complete her set. What is the theoretical probability that she will choose the card she needs? c. DeeDee needs either one compost card or one tree card to complete her set. What is the theoretical probability that she will choose a card she needs? d. Who has the best chances of winning the game? 13. Glow sticks are available in yellow, green, pink, and blue. George bought an equal number of each colour of glow stick to put in his party favour bags. George bought eight glow sticks. a. What is the theoretical probability of getting a yellow glow stick in your bag? b. Would the theoretical probability be different if George had bought 12 glow sticks?

CHAPTER 13: Probability

311

Look at Your Chances (continued)

14. Franz was playing a carnival game where he could choose one spinner and then spin it for a chance to win a prize. i. ii. iii.

The results of landing on each section are: – no prize – win one candy – win a small toy – win a bicycle

a. What is the theoretical probability of winning the bicycle on each spinner? b. What is the theoretical probability of not winning a prize on each spinner? c. Which spinner do you think Franz should spin? 15. Mitsy is late to pick up her soccer uniform. There are only a few jerseys left and she needs a small jersey. There are two line-ups. She sees the jerseys left at the head of each line-up. Line One: 3 small, 2 medium, 3 large Line Two: 2 small, 2 large

a. Calculate the theoretical probability of getting a small jersey in each line-up. b. In which line-up should she stand? 16. Alexis says that the spinner shown has a theoretical 1 probability of 4 of landing on A. Explain why her theoretical probability is incorrect. D A B C

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CHAPTER 13: Probability

Look at Your Chances (continued)

17. Twyla and Daxton are playing a game in which they each have their own die. Twyla needs to roll a star to win. Daxton needs to roll a moon to win.

Twyla’s die:

Daxton’s die:

Who has the better chance of winning? Explain.

18. Vienna is creating an experiment for her classmates. She wrote the letters of the word ‘please’ on separate pieces of paper and placed them in a paper bag. a. What is the theoretical probability of picking a ‘p’ out of the bag? b. What is the theoretical probability of picking a vowel out of the bag? c. Create an experiment like Vienna’s, but with a four-letter word, that has a chance of choosing the letter ‘d.’ d. Create an experiment like Vienna’s, but with a five-letter word, that has 2 of choosing an ‘a’ and 5 chance of choosing a ‘p.’

1 1 5 1 4

chance

e. Create an experiment like Vienna’s, but with a word that has a 2 chance of 1 1 choosing a ‘p,’ a 3 chance of choosing an ‘e,’ and a 6 chance of choosing an ‘r.’

CHAPTER 13: Probability

313

Look at Your Chances (continued)

**19. Griffen found the following theoretical probabilities: Flipping a coin P(head) =
**

1 2

**Rolling a die P(odd number) =
**

1 2

a. Explain how these two different events can have the same probability. b. Find another event that has a theoretical probability of 10. Design a spinner on which you are: • • • equally likely to spin red and purple more likely to spin red than blue less likely to spin purple than orange

1 2

.

a. Do you think every student’s spinner will look the same? Why or why not? b. Compare your spinner with that of a classmate. c. If you won a point for correctly predicting the colour on which your classmate’s spinner would land, what colour would you choose? Why? d. Explain how you could find the theoretical probability of landing on each colour on your spinner.

11. Describe how you can find the theoretical probability of an experiment. 12. What types of numbers are used to express probability? Why? 13. When might you need to know or compare theoretical probabilities in your own life?

I can list all possible outcomes of a probability experiment. I can calculate the theoretical probability of outcomes in a probability experiment.

314

CHAPTER 13: Probability

Theoretical and Experimental

List possible outcomes, calculate theoretical probability, perform experiments, write experimental probability, and compare theoretical probability and experimental probability. Example:

Outcome Heads Tails III IIII II Tally Frequency 3 7

Brielle says that the probability of getting heads is of probability do you think she means?

3 10

. What kind

This is an experimental probability. Brielle is describing the probability of getting heads based on the trials of the experiment she did. The theoretical probability of getting heads when fl ipping a coin is 1 P (head) = 2 .

11. Why might you conduct an experiment to find probability? 12. Explain whether or not luck plays a role in probability. 13. How would you explain the difference between experimental probability and theoretical probability? 14. If you flip a coin 100 times, will it land on heads 50 times? Why or why not?

CHAPTER 13: Probability

315

Theoretical and Experimental (continued)

15. Explain whether each student is describing theoretical probability or experimental probability. a. Hudson says the probability of the spinner landing on blue is

Y ELL O W

B L UE

B L UE

2 6

.

b. Chloe built a die using the net shown. She says she rolled a star 20 times out of 2 30, so the probability of rolling a star is 3 .

c. Jamal says the probability of getting a striped card is

d. Daphne took five free-throws and made three baskets. She says the probability of 3 getting a basket is 5 .

316

CHAPTER 13: Probability

L YE L O W

2 5

.

Theoretical and Experimental (continued)

16. Kingston’s class performed an experiment in which they each took turns choosing one card from a deck of cards, recording whether the card was a heart, returning the card to the deck, and shuffling the cards. To generate many trials, the students in Kingston’s class each performed 10 trials in pairs and recorded their results in the table below.

Results 0 hearts 1 heart 2 hearts 3 hearts 4 hearts 5 hearts 6 hearts 7 hearts 8 hearts 9 hearts 10 hearts Number of pairs with these results 0 1 7 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

a. How would you use these results to write the experimental probability of choosing a heart from a deck of cards? b. How would you calculate the theoretical probability of choosing a heart from a deck of cards? c. How do these two probabilities compare? 17. Place 10 two-colour counters in a cup and complete an experiment by spilling the counters onto a flat surface and counting the number of each colour. a. Repeat the experiment 10 times and record the outcomes. b. Calculate the theoretical probability of the counters landing on one colour. c. Write the experimental probability of the counters landing on one colour. d. Explain how this experiment is the same as flipping a coin 100 times.

CHAPTER 13: Probability

317

Theoretical and Experimental (continued)

18. You are going to perform an experiment in which you write the letters from a word on pieces of paper and place them in a bag. For each trial, one piece of paper is chosen from the bag, the letter is recorded, then the piece of paper is returned to the bag. a. Choose a word that has five letters and at least one repeated letter, such as ‘tally’ or ‘seeds.’ b. List the possible outcomes when you choose one piece of paper from the bag. c. Calculate the theoretical probability of each possible outcome. d. You are going to perform 20 trials of your experiment. Predict the number of times you will choose each letter from the bag. e. Conduct the experiment by performing 20 trials and recording the results. f. Write the experimental probability of each possible outcome. g. Compare your experimental probability with your theoretical probability. What do you notice? h. What would you expect to have happen if you performed another 20 trials? 100 trials?

19. If you had to choose a way to calculate probability to determine your chances of winning a prize, would you use experimental probability or theoretical probability? Explain.

I can list all possible outcomes of a probability experiment. I can explain the similarities and differences between experimental and theoretical probability. I can calculate the theoretical probability of outcomes in a probability experiment. I can determine the experimental probability of outcomes in a probability experiment. I can compare experimental results with the theoretical probability for a probability experiment.

318

CHAPTER 13: Probability

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