Tomiahonen Almanac 2010 Freeware Edition

Published opinions on the TomiAhonen Almanac: "Whenever I need a stat, Tomi seems to have it, so I'd highly recommend
this for any aspiring mobile fact junkie." - Russell Buckley, MD Admob Europe, Chairman Mobile Marketing Association "Speaking of statistics, Tomi Ahonen has put together the Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2009 as an eBook for mobile nuts. In it, you can quickly find out the mobile penetration of say, Thailand, or that 51% of the Earth's population has at least one cellphone, and one in 8 mobile subscribers usually walks around with 2 phones in their pockets! (even I don't do that normally). - Ricky "The Guru" Cadden at Symbian Guru ""Tomi Ahonen is the king of mobile statistics and knows more about the mobile space than any one I know" - Paul Poutanen founder and President of Mob4hire "If you're interested in mobile statistics, you really need to pick up a copy of Tomi Ahonen's Almanac 2009. The Almanac is full of hard to find information." - WAP Review
Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2010
Copyright Tomi T Ahonen 2010

Mobile Telecoms Industry Review
an eBook
By Tomi T Ahonen
Copyright 2010, 2012 TomiAhonen Consulting www.tomiahonen.com
This is an eBook single-user freeware license version only. You are allowed to distribute this document or copies of it as individual transmissions to any single person. You may not distribute this in any form of mass distribution including any email mass mailing or post on any website or any file-sharing site. Anyone may download a fresh copy of this free shareware license pdf ebook file from www.Lulu.com. This file is 234 pages in length, it may not be edited or cut in any way. Please report any abuses of the terms of this freeware license.
Copyright 2010, 2012 TomiAhonen Consulting issue date 01.02.2010 First Electronic Edition (paid edition) issue date 30.04.2012 Second Electronic Edition as Free Shareware Published by TomiAhonen Consulting 119-120 Connaught Road Central Hong Kong e-mail: info@tomiahonen.com www.tomiahonen.com
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the author.
Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2010 Copyright Tomi T Ahonen 2010
Although great care has been taken to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information contained in this excerpt document, neither TomiAhonen Consulting nor any of its authors, contributors, employees or advisors is able to accept any legal liability for any consequential loss or damage, however, caused, arising as a result of any actions taken on the basis of the information contained in this document. Certain statements in this document are forward-looking. Although TomiAhonen Consulting believes that the expectations reflected in these forward-looking statements are reasonable, it can give no assurance that these expectations will prove to be correct. TomiAhonen Consulting undertakes no obligation or liability due to any action arising from these statements. All third party brands and trademarks belong to their respective owners. This is an eBook edition only
This book was sold in 2010 as an eBook edition only. This reprint edition in 2012 is a totally free eBook and made available only through www.Lulu.com. You have the rights to save this eBook pdf file as many times as you want to whatever digital devices you want including your smartphones, PDAs, tablets, e-Readers and PCs. You have the right to share a single copy of this eBook pdf file with anyone else, as many times as you want, to as many individual people as you want, but you may not republish this eBook pdf file, and you may not mass-share it (such as sharing as an email attachment to many recepients). You may not save this eBook pdf file to any public sharing website or blogsite or social networking site. The only place that downloads of this eBook pdf may be made from, are directly from www.Lulu.com. You may make print-outs from this eBook file, you may make screen shots from the graphics in this eBook and you may use any information from this eBook, as long as you do not edit or cut the actual pdf file as released and made available through Lulu.com. The file size of this ebook is 238 pages when published. If you receive an edited or abbreviated version of this TomiAhonen Almanac 2010 edition, please report it to tomi@tomiahonen.com
Prebook
vii
Contents
Preface to Almanac Free Edition . . . . . . . . . Page 1
Chapter 1 - Intro to this Almanac . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Chapter 2 - Size of Industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Chapter 3 - Customers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Chapter 4 - Handsets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Chapter 5 - Mobile Messaging . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
Chapter 6 - Mobile Internet . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60 Chapter 7 - Seventh Mass Media Channel . . . . . . 73 Chapter 8 - Music on Mobile . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90 Chapter 9 - Mobile TV and Video . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97 Chapter 10 - Mobile Gaming . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106 Chapter 11 - Mobile Social Networking . . . . . . . . 113 Chapter 12 - Other Mobile Content . . . . . . . . . . . 120 Chapter 13 - Mobile Advertising and Marketing . 130
Prebook
viii
Chapter 14 - Voice Calls . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139 Chapter 15 - Business/Enterprise Services . . . . 144 Chapter 16 - Other Mobile Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147 Chapter 17 - Network Infrastructure . . . . . . . . . . 149 Chapter 18 - Digital Divide . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152 Chapter 19 - History and Milestones . . . . . . . . . . 163 Tables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 170 Index of Mobile Leadership for 30 advanced countries 60 Major Countries 25 Countries with highest 3G Penetration 20 Biggest Mobile Operator Groups APPENDIX . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 182 Good sources of information Bibliography Good websites and blogsites About the Author . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189 Other books by Tomi T Ahonen Excerpt from Tomi T Ahonen latest full printed hardcover book Mobile as 7th of the Mass Media published by Futuretext Ltd, 2008
Chapter 1 - Introduction
Preface to Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2010 Free Edition

My gift to my readers and fans
The TomiAhonen Almanac has become an annual tradition. I am very satisified with the growing repeat customer base and the reputation the TomiAhonen Almanc is receiving in the industry. The normal TomiAhonen Almanac comes out in February of any year and has all data updated to the start of the year, ie the TomiAhonen Almanac 2012 edition is current in its data to January 1, 2012. (This free 2010 Edition has all data current as of January 1, 2010, a little over 2 years ago.) The price of the Almanac is only 9.99 Euros, and for a statistical review of the rapidly evolving and dynamic Trillion-dollar mobile telecoms industry, it is the best value among paid statistical resources to the industry. I have found, from time to time, that some people ask for information which they need that is in the Almanac but the person requesting it honestly has no budget, is for example a student. I have been looking for a way to be
able to deliver some of the insights of the Almanac without killing the business of the 'real' paid version. I came upon this idea, to release the two year old version for free, and I think it perfectly suits this need. This free edition has all the data that the TomiAhonen Almanac 2010 had, when it was new in February 2010. It includes all 83 tables, charts and graphs as in the original edition. It includes the full text of the original 187 page edition, but adds several bonus pages mostly in forms of short advertisements about other eBooks recently published by Tomi T Ahonen. If you like this Almanac, pleased do share it with your friends and/or encourage them to go to Lulu.com to download a fresh copy for themselves. If you need more updated data, please visit www.tomiahonen.com to see the latest edition of the TomiAhonen Almanac and its sister publication. the TomiAhonen Phone Book.
I
Intro to the Tomi Ahonen Almanac
A robust industry even in the downturn
Welcome to the 2010 edition of the Tomi Ahonen Almanac, to discuss the size and status of the mobile telecoms industry. Completing six hardcover bestselling "real books" and three eBooks this is the first time I have totally rewritten any of my books. I had been giving annual reviews of the state of the mobile telecoms industry for several years at the Communities Dominate blog and for 2009 finally figured out a practical way to offer more of the data, as well as graphical illustrations of the data, in this new form of eBooks. I was extremely pleased with the response to the 2009 Almanac and hope you will find this 2010 edition of good value as well. The world was in economic crisis the past year but mobile sustained robust growth in almost every metric. Not just new customers but more traffic, more revenues and more profits. Some areas of the mobile business grew incredibly well, highlighted by mobile advertising which grew 85% over the past 12 months. It is a good industry to be in.
As I reported in the 2009 edition of the Almanac, the world passed the point where more than half of the people who access internet websites, do so now with a mobile phone. That point is frequently mentioned by industry leaders. We heard for example the CEO of Nokia, Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo making that statement in January 2010. I hope that some of the findings of this edition of the Almanac prove as popular. Compared to the 2009 edition, this Almanac has added a dozen new charts and tables and runs several pages longer. I have added new sections on Apps Stores and 3G penetration rates and a whole new chapter on the Digital Divide. Beyond the numbered pages of this eBook are some promotional pages including some info on my other books, my workshops, etc. All data in this Almanac, that is not explicitly attributed to another source, is source: Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2010. The facts are all short-term forecasts mostly based on 2009 data points projected to January 2010, based on industry analysis and various published reports by TomiAhonen Consulting, as well as the commentary at the personal blogs of Tomi T Ahonen. Please use "Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2010" as the source if you quote facts from this Almanac. Finally, I want to thank Futuretext for releasing a chapter of my book with them, Mobile as 7th of the Mass
Media, that is excerpted to the end of this eBook. That provides a bonus of 15 pages to the end of this book (which I have not charged you for, and am not counting in the 180 page official length of this Almanac). I hope you will enjoy this Almanac and I do welcome comments to tomi@tomiahonen.com. The related blogsite is www.Communities-Dominate.blogs.com where I explore the further evolution of the mobile industry area. If you are on Twitter, you may want to follow me as @tomiahonen.
Chapter 2 - Size of the Industry
II
Size of Industry
Understanding the landscape
This chapter examines the size and scope of the mobile telecoms industry in 2010. It will look at the overall aggregate numbers for subscribers handsets and revenues, as cumulative numbers and on an annual level, and make comparisons with other industries and media. This chapter also gives a brief overview to the size of the telecoms services and mobile media market. SUBSCRIBERS AND REACH
Total Mobile Subscribers Globally in Billions
5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: TomiAhonen Almanac 2010
Mobile telecoms as an industry has 4.6 Billion mobile phone subscriptions i.e. paying customers. To compare, there are 1.7 Billion internet users with 1.2 Billion personal computers (all desktops, laptops and netbooks combined). There are 1.6 Billion total TV sets but only 850 million of those have a paid subscription to cable or satellite TV. There are 1.7 Billion people with at least one credit card in their wallet. Of fixed landline phones, there are under 1.2 Billion of those and their number has peaked and is now in gradual decline.
More than a billion new mobile phones are sold every year, compared with about 300 million new TV sets or about 280 million new PCs per year.
INDUSTRY REVENUES The aggregate mobile telecoms industry, hardware and services combined, passed 1 Trillion dollars (1,000 billion dollars) in annual revenues in 2008. The industry grew revenues modestly for the economic downturn in 2009.
Mobile Industry Revenues 2009 & 2008

Mobile Services Voice Data Messaging SMS MMS VAS Data Mobile Advertising Handset Sales Network Infrastructure TOTAL 2009 $ 865 B $ 615 B $ 251 B $ 153 B $ 113 B $ 29 B $ 98 B $ 6B $ 160 B $ 45 B $1,070 B 2008 $ 810 B $ 602 B $ 208 B $ 137 B $ 106 B $ 26 B $ 71 B $ 3B $ 155 B $ 45 B $1,005 B Growth 7% 2% 21% 12% 7% 12% 38% 85% 3% 0% 7%
The total industry generated about 1.07 Trillion dollars in 2009. The majority of that revenue is telecoms traffic related, 865 billion dollars is services, with the rest consisting of hardware: handset sales and network
infrastructure sales per year. The majority of the service revenues comes from voice calls and SMS text messaging. As in the previous economic downturn of 2001-2003, the overall service revenues of mobile telecoms showed strong global growth.
Mobile Service Annual Revenues 1998 - 2009 (Billions of USD)
1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Mobile phone based messaging, mostly SMS text messaging, is worth over 153 Billion dollars in annual revenues. That is 20 times bigger than all messaging revenues of all online internet messaging (email, instant messaging etc) services put together. Non-messaging value-add data services, including media content on mobile (music, gaming, news, etc)
10
worth 98 billion dollars in value is already larger by revenues than all content-related income on the internet including advertising. COMPARISONS Currently the world has about 470 million daily newspapers by circulation. There are about 920 million cars on the roads worldwide. Approximately 1.4 billion people use email and about 1.7 billion is the total user base of the internet including PC and mobile users as well as those who access via a shared PC such as at an internet cafe. About 2.2 billion unique people have a banking account. Those numbers compare with 4.6 billion mobile phone subscriptions. Of the 4 billion paid mobile phone subscriptions, 3.9 billion represents actual connected mobile phones registered, paid for, and in use. The world has 3.4 billion unique mobile phone subscribers (when multiple subscriptions and second phones are removed). With the total population of the planet at 6.8 billion people, there is literally a mobile phone subscription for half of the population on the planet. Already 3.5 billion people use SMS text messaging. 2.9 billion mobile phones are cameraphones. 1.7 billion mobile phone subscribers are active users of MMS picture messaging globally, which
11
is more than active users of internet based email. And finally, 1.3 billion mobile phone owners are active users of the "mobile internet", browsing to web and/or WAP pages on phones, which is more than all PC based users of the internet.
Comparison of Sizes Globally 2010
Newspapers daily circulation Cable/satellite TV subscriptions Cars registered in use Fixed landline telephones PCs in use including laptops Email active users Internet active users (using any access) Television sets Credit cards - unique owners of Banking accounts - unique owners of FM radio receivers Mobile phones - unique subscribers Mobile phones in use Mobile phone subscriptions in use
470 million 850 million 920 million 1.15 billion 1.2 billion 1.4 billion 1.7 billion 1.6 billion 1.7 billion 2.2 billion 3.9 billion 3.4 billion 3.9 billion 4.6 billion
The first laptop was released by Toshiba in Japan in 1985. Twenty-five years later, there are less than 500 million laptops in use in the world. The first iPod was sold in 2001. Nine years later and about 250 million iPods have been sold. By contrast, mobile phones sell over 1.1 Billion new phones annually.
12
In December 2009, the world passed 4.6 Billion mobile phone subscriptions. As a percentage of human population there already is a mobile phone subscription for 67% of the total planet. It is by far the most widelyspread technology on the planet. In 69 countries the human subscription penetration for mobile has exceeded 100% per capita.
Penetration Rates of Mobile per Capita, Regionally
160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%
es t st g an lo p Af ri nc W Am La tin va er ic a ed st ad Ea in Ea ca a
op
ve
op
ad
Eu r
Eu r
de
&
AP AC
SA
The worldwide airline industry transports about one billion passengers per year. The TV industry has about 850 million paying subscribers to pay-TV such as cable or satellite. 920 million people own and operate a car, paying for its insurance, petrol and other operational costs. A little under 1.2 Billion people pay for a fixed
As
ia
id
dl
13
landline phone subscription. 1.2 Billion personal computer owners subscriber to an internet connection (about half of those on broadband). There are 1.7 Billion households so someone pays the mortgage or rent, plus various electricity, water, etc utility bills. Against those numbers, 4.6 Billion mobile phone accounts are active on the planet. And here we need to look at the total number, not unique users, as some people have two homes, or two cars, or two paid internet connections etc. When we focus on the money, the picture gets into very sharp focus. Mobile truly is the giant among lilliputs. SMS text messaging is the single most widely used data application on the planet. There are 3.5 Billion active users of SMS text messaging, which is 76% of all mobile phone subscriptions. Compare that with about 800 M active million users of IM Instant Messaging, and about 1.4 Billion active users of email worldwide. SMS has its own chapter in this Almanac. MOBILE INTERNET Mobile Internet (including WAP and i-Mode browsing). Of the 1.7 billion total internet users, 1.2 billion are still accessing the web via a PC, either all of the time or part of the time, but the balance has already tilted to mobile. The majority of internet users access using both
14
methods, part time on a PC and part time on mobile. Already 500 million internet users access the internet exclusively on mobile at the end of 2009. TomiAhonen Consulting has been tracking the shift and for 2009 finds that 29% of the world's internet access is exclusively from mobile, only 18% is exclusively from a PC, and 53% of internet users access the internet using both mobile and a PC.
The total number of users who accessed the internet via mobile at least part of the time, passed the total of users who accessed via a PC at least part of the time, for the
15
first time in 2008, and the gap has been growing. Today 1.3 Billion people accessed the "mobile internet" (including WAP) via a phone, and only 1.2 Billion accessed via a PC of any kind including netbooks. The mobile internet phenomenon is discussed in its own chapter of this Almanac later. MEDIA The first service of downloadable mobile content was the ringing tone which launched in 1998. While the internet paid content industry is nearly twice as old, the mobile content industry shot past the internet content industry by revenues in 2004 and today towers over internet content, generating 98 Billion dollars of content revenues in 2009. This is more than three times as big as the total paid content revenues generated on the PC based legacy internet. Non-messaging mobile media revenues are roughly as big as the total worldwide revenues generated by radio, or about the same as total sales and rentals of DVDs of both movies and TV shows worldwide. Mobile content is a very large, growing global industry. Several mobile media categories have passed the 10 Billion dollar level in annual income including mobile music, TV and video related services, videogaming, and mobile social networking. Each of these media content
16
sub-sectors has its own chapter in this 2010 edition of the Almanac. New media and service opportunities are emerging on mobile media. Mobile learning is a big growth opportunity in many markets. Advertising is also on mobile. While most revenue on the PC based internet is advertising, on mobile, advertising is a miniscule part, delivering only 6% of the total revenues of the mobile content industry and only about 1.5% of the global worldwide advertising industry income. This reflects partly the healthy ecosystem of mobile, where users are willing and able to pay for content; but also reflects the relative immaturity of advertising on mobile.
Bonus Page
Do you need to make strategic planning about your mobile future? If you need a forecast to what the mobile industry numbers will look like in the next few years, please consider the TomiAhonen Mobile Forecast 2012-2015. The eBook is in the same format as this Almanac and has 110 data points forecasted across the 4 years. See full table of contents etc at www.tomiahonen.com The TomiAhonen Mobile Forecast 2012-2015 costs only 99.00 Euros.
(this advertising is not counted in the 180 pages)
Chapter 3 - Customers
17
III
Customers
Who feed this industry
The consumer of mobile telecoms is evolving as the industry and handsets evolve. A decade ago the "obvious" primary use of the mobile phone was to place and receive voice calls. That is no longer true. While voice calls still generate the most revenues, for most users in all advanced markets, the phone is no longer primarily a voice communication device. Yes, it is still a communication device and not for example an "internet device" or media consumption device. But the preferred means of communication on mobile has shifted away from voice calls and today in most markets, the customer base considers SMS text messaging to be the primary use of a mobile phone. Voice calls come in as an optional extra, far down on the list of necessary features and services. This development still confounds experts in such laggard markets as North America. SUBSCRIBERS AND UNIQUE OWNERS The mobile phone is within arm's reach 24 hours a day
18
and is the only device we literally sleep with. The mobile phone is our alarm clock, it is the last thing we look at before we go to sleep and the first thing we see when we wake up. We look at its screen every 11 minutes during the day and yes, all of us do it, we take the phone to the bathroom with us. MULTIPLE SUBSCRIPTIONS
Mobile Subscribers, Phones in Use and Unique Owners 5 4 3 2 1 0
98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 19
Total Subscribers Phones in Use Unique Owners
Of the 4.6 billion mobile phone subscriptions, that is not the same as 4.6 billion unique users of a mobile phone (or of "subscribers"). The 4.6 billion subscription count reflects cases of multiple phone ownership, such as an Apple iPhone owner also having a Blackberry. There also are cases of one person with one phone having two
19
or three subscriptions to save on calling and messaging charges, to optimize traffic by switching networks.
Unique Phone Owners & Multiple Subscribers, by Region 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0
t Ea st pi ng st d da es a ce an a W Ea ric ad va n Am er lo Af ic a
ro pe
ro pe
de ve
&
id
dl
U SA
The trend to multiple mobile phone subscriptions is a universal trend, first reported by Tomi Ahonen in his book M-Profits in 2002 and he has been studying this phenomenon and reporting on it to the industry. When we remove duplicates from the 4.6 billion subscriber count, we arrive at 3.4 billion unique mobile phone subscribers. As the population of the planet is 6.8 billion people, we have now reached the point, where there is literally a unique mobile phone subscription for
AP
As
La tin
Eu
Eu
AC
ia
20
half the population of the planet in real terms, even after removing duplicate subscriptions. The count includes all babies and great grandparents, all those living in extreme poverty beyond electricity etc.
Mobile Customers 2009 & 2008

2009 Subscriptions Unique users - of which 1 only - of which 2 accts - of which 3+ 2nd+ accounts Phones in use 4.6 B 3.4 B 2.4 B 1.0 B 0.2 B 1.2 B 3.9 B 2008 4.0 B 3.0 B 2.2 B 0.9 B 0.1 B 1.0 B 3.3 B Growth 15% 13% 8% 19% 200% 20% 18%
All other technologies, such as home videogaming consoles or MP3 players like an iPod etc are far smaller in total reach, counting only in the few hundreds of millions in total installed base. 29% (1 billion) of all 3.4 billion unique holders of mobile phone accounts have more than one account. 15% (500
21
million) of the unique mobile phone customers carry two phones. 5% (160 million) of all unique phone owners have 3 or more accounts. FURTHER DETAILS OF SUBSCRIBERS A special note should be made about telematics subscriptions and shared phones. Roughly speaking 200 million of the 3.4 billion unique mobile phone subscribers uses the connection for data use. The majority of this group is various telematics use like utility metering, various remote control and remote metering solutions etc. While worldwide these count for 4% of all subscriptions, In Sweden already 20% of all mobile phone subscriptions are for telematics use. The telematics subscriptions are counted both in the 4.6 billion total subscription count as well as the 3.4 billion unique user count. Also a growing use of especially 3G and 3.5G mobile subscriptions are for laptop PC modem use through data dongles and datacards. Mostly such users will also have a separate mobile phone account so the data access users tend to have at least one phone account as well. Separately in the Emerging World there is a segment of the population where phones are so rare that they are shared. So families and sometimes whole villages will share a phone. The operators and handset makers have
22
incorporated special community features such as several phone numbers for one phone, with unique profiles for a phone, so each user can have personalized ringing etc. The phone use records like phonebook, message history and call logs can then be personalized for each user. TomiAhonen Consulting estimates that currently about 200 million people in poor parts of Africa, Latin America and Asia are users who share such a phone. The original 'owner' of the phone, often the head of the family, is counted as the 'unique' subscriber. The shared users are not counted in the statistics of this Almanac unless separately indicated. So the total reach of unique people with either an owned phone or a shared phone is about 3.6 billion people (53% of planet). ADDICTION TO MOBILE The first cases of speculation about mobile phone addiction were laughed at. However in 2001, Nokia's Global Messaging Study suggested that there was a dependency on SMS text messaging that was "similar to an addiction". The first published book to discuss SMS addiction was Tomi Ahonen's M-Profits in 2002. The first university study to address mobile phone addiction was Catholic University of Leuwen in Belgium in 2004, which found that mobile phones did indeed
23
produce an addiction, in particular with younger users and SMS text messaging. A follow-up study at the Queensland University in Australia in 2005 found that SMS text messaging was the most addictive of any technology compared in the study, and as addictive as cigarette smoking. A Carphone Warehouse study in 2006 revealed that 9% of the youth admitted to addiction to the mobile phone. Today many clinics treat the addiction. USAGE The primary use of the phone is SMS text messaging. The US presidential elections surprised many when then-candidate Barack Obama announced his Vice Presidential choice by SMS text message. SMS had finally arrived to American politics. It has been a staple of politics abroad for most of the decade. The Tony Blair government of the UK was reported in 2004 that cabinet members would send unobtrusive SMS messages across to fellow cabinet members during meetings, while the Kenyan election results were reported also via SMS in that year. The Slovenian Prime Minister was already sending out his cabinet meeting agenda by SMS back n 2001. There is a shift in mobile phone usage away from voice calls, and into SMS. In many countries the total traffic
24
indicates this, for example the UK telecoms regulator reported in 2006, and the Irish regulator in 2007. Even the Finnish Prime Minister's voicemail says, "Please don't leave me voicemail, send me an SMS text message." YOUTH The youth the world over now says their preferred gadget is the mobile phone. Some say the phone is their friend. When older people may make a call to share an emotion, young people make a call to have an emotion. MTV research in 2008 found that the youth say that they consider the mobile phone as being their friend. Even American youth have taken to the mobile, 87% of US youth send SMS according to 2009 study of US High School Student Lifestyle. The phone is an extension of the persona and the key to connecting with friends. Several recent studies have illustrated the extent of youth dependency on the phone and its services. 50% of British youth admit to sending SMS text messages in class (YouGov Carphone Warehouse 2006) and 40% of South Koreans admit to doing it (KADOP 2006). 48% of the youth in the UK admit to sending text messages while simultaneously talking to someone else; 37% use the phone to screen their parents, i.e. avoid
25
contact of the parents; 35% communicate with people their parents would not approve; and 68% will not let parents snoop inside the phone (YouGov Carphone Warehouse 2006).
Mobile Phone Ownership (unique owners) Globally
6-10 11-15 16-20 21-25 26-30 31-35 36-40 41-45 46-50 51-55 56-60 61+ 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
As to snooping, among adults one in four partners or spouces will snoop inside the phones of their partners according to a 2009 survey by Best Buy in the USA. While back with the youth, 20% of teens and 40% of young adults have sent nude or semi-nude pictures of
26
themselves to a romantic partner via the phone and 39% of teens and 59% of young adults send sexually explicit SMS text messages on their phones (CosmoGirl 2008). 30 MINUTE TASKS AND 30 SECOND TASKS
30 Minute Tasks and 30 Second Tasks

30 Minute Tasks Planned Sitting Create Big display Keyboard and mouse Concentrate Email PC/Laptop 30 Second Tasks Unplanned Standing/Walking Consume Small display Keypad and camera Multi-task SMS Mobile phone
Source: Tomi T Ahonen book Mobile as 7th of the Mass Media, 2008
Tomi Ahonen has been explaining how the mobile opportunity is not mutually exclusive with the PC opportunity, using the 30 minute/30 second metaphor, which he introduced in his third book, 3G Marketing, with Timo Kasper and Sara Melkko in 2004.
27
There are "30 Minute Tasks" such as sorting pictures, writing documents, creating powerpoint presentations, doing calculations, and managing email. For leisure these include watching favorite TV shows, sports games, the nightly TV news etc. These are planned, done while seated, with a good screen (TV or PC screen) and good controls, keyboard or remote control. Then there are also "30 Second Tasks" which arrive suddenly without planning, often onto our phone. The tasks need immediate attention, are done while standing or walking, using only what is immediately available. This can be IM Instant Messaging or for example using Twitter, but most often it is SMS text messaging and various mobile phone services. 30 Second Tasks are done with the best available services, devices, networks and connections, often even at premium costs, such as during travel. This helps isolate emerging opportunities. The 30 minute/30 second metaphor helps explain why mobile will not replace the internet, but is an additional technology. NOT JUST YOUTH Mobile phones may seem like they are gadgets for the young, and that services such as SMS text messages, MMS picture messages, ringing tones etc. would not be adopted by the elderly. This is not true. UK survey by
28
Carphone Warehouse in 2006 found that 42% of grandparents used a mobile phone to connect with their grandchildren. In South Korea ringing tones are used by 97% of the total population (NIDA 2006) while 94% of British phone owners personalize their phones with ringing tones or decorations, accessories etc (M Formation 2008). RAPID ADOPTION As the mobile phone adds new functionalities, such as the camera, music player, TV tuner, etc., then newer services and features are also adopted by users. At one extreme is a modest improvement of the camera feature, turning it into the scanner for 2D Barcodes (QR Codes). Launched in Japan in 2005, today 76% of Japanese phone owners use the 2D barcode reader (Mobikyo 2007). At the other extreme is a significant additional-cost component, such as integrating a digital TV tuner into the phone. These were launched in South Korea in 2005. Two years later these high-end phones had been snapped up by 15% of the phone subscribers (KIICA 2007). Not every service automatically is a guaranteed success, witness videocalls. We report a lost credit card the next day but a lost mobile phone within 30 minutes (Visa 2008). A Nokia
29
2006 global survey found 73% use the clock on the phone rather than wristwatch, and 72% use phone alarm to wake up. The UK Sleep Council reports in 2008 that 25% of British couples sleep apart at least part of the time because of a partner messaging in bed. A 2009 survey by Lightspeed found that 53% of the British will keep their phone not only within arm's reach at night, but with the ringer on, for waking them for incoming text messages or phone calls at night. Quite literally, mobile has become the first mass medium which will reach us even waking us from our sleep. The preference in media has shifted. In 2002, Americans responded to the Pew American Life survey selecting the cellphone as least of four technologies important behind landline phone, television and the internet. Five years later, in 2007, the cellphone had passed all others and was the number one device Americans cannot live without. But now, one in every seven minutes of media consumption on any legacy medium in the USA, a mobile phone is also used. So phones are used when watching TV, or sending messages after (or even during) movies, or responding to radio shows etc (Universall McCann 2009).
Chapter 4 - Handsets
30
IV
Handsets
The driver to the industry
The handset sales levels dropped slightly from the peak in 2008 but still exceeded a billion new handsets sold, reaching 1.13 billion in 2009. As the world economy recovers, the new handset sales for 2010 will likely grow dramatically into the previous trend to approximate 1.25 billion to 1.3 billion level for 2010.
Mobile Phone Sales Annually in Millions of Units
1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
31
ANNUAL SALES For scale, compare over one billion new phones sold per year with the PC industry that sells approximately 280 million personal computers (desktop, laptop and netbook computers; for the first time in 2008 more laptop computers were sold than desktops) and the television industry which sells about 300 million TV sets per year (mostly flat screen TVs) and about 250 million DVD players annually. Apple iPods sell about 50 million per year and videogaming consoles, the Playstation, Xbox and Wii sell in the 30 million annual sales level all brands of gaming consoles counted together. PHONE MARKET SHARES
32
Finland's Nokia continues to dominate the mobile phone market shares, selling over a million phones every day and controlling nearly 40% of the market (38% for 2009). Samsung of South Korea is in a solid second position selling one out of every 5 phones on the planet (20%). Also from South Korea, LG has taken solid third place (10%). The US based Motorola has crashed and is now only fifth largest (4.9%), with Japanese-Swedish SonyEricsson in fourth place (5.0%).
New Phone Handset Sales 2009

Nokia Samsung LG SonyEricsson Motorola ZTE Kyocera RIM Sharp Apple Others TOTAL 432 Million 227 Million 117 Million 57 Million 55 Million 50 Million 45 Million 35 Million 29 Million 25 Million 58 Million 1,130 Million 38.2% 20.1% 10.4% 5.0% 4.9% 4.4% 4.0% 3.1% 2.6% 2.2% 5.1% 100.0%
Next five are ZTE of China, Kyocera of Japan, RIM of Canada, Sharp from Japan and Apple from the USA in
33
that order. ZTE has been growing so strongly that in the fourth quarter its sales exceeded Motorola's and for the year 2010 ZTE is likely to pass Motorola for 5th overall. RIM, the maker of the Blackberry has also been growing strong and the biggest manufacturer that only makes smartphones is nipping on Motorola's heels and is likely to pass Motorola's total handset business around the second quarter of 2010 and may end the year selling more pure smartphones than Motorola's total handset output, becoming in the process also the largest handset maker on the North American continent. There is a dramatically expanding range of handset makers worldwide as over 1,000 new handset models are released annually by about 40 makers from over a dozen countries. New handset makers appeared in the past year such as Internet giant Google, PC makers Dell and Acer, watchmaker Tag Heuer etc. PHONE FEATURES AND GENERATIONS New phone sales tend to preceed the subscription levels for any generation. Thus customers tend to get 3G phones even before they upgrade their subscriptions to 3G services; or even in many countries where 3G networks have not been launched commercially, such as China today, there are already early adopters who want the top phones and get 3G phones.
34
New Phone Sales by Generation

100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
07 04 20 05 99 98 00 01 02 03 06 08 20 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 09
3.5G 3G 2.5G 2G 1G
Currently the most desired feature and the specification which most drives new phone sales is the inbuilt camera and its resolution. Touch screen phones have become a popular requested feature and among the youth QWERTY keyboards have suddenly become 'musthave' features. The first cameraphones were introduced in Japan in 2001 by J-Phone (since Vodfone KK now Softbank) and today the majority of all phones in use are cameraphones. The cameraphone resolutions have also increased each year. An annual survey of European new phone models
35
Features of Installed Base 2009 and 2008

Feature/Ability SMS text messaging Browser phones Color screen 2.5G Data capable MMS picture messaging Cameraphones Bluetooth capable Media player Downloadable (Java/Brew) Memory card slot 3G capable phones WiFi capable Smartphones Second-hand phones
2009 100% 95% 93% 91% 80% 73% 64% 56% 53% 44% 29% 19% 13% 10%
2008 100% 92% 90% 88% 71% 68% 52% 45% 44% 33% 24% 12% 11% 9%
Growth 3% 3% 3% 10% 7% 15% 25% 18% 33% 20% 31% 23% 10%
by TomiAhonen Consulting has observed that the most frequent cameraphone resolution for new phones in 2005 was VGA (0.3 megapixel). By 2006 the most common cameraphone resolution had growth to 1 megapixel. In 2007 it was 2 megapixel and by the end of 2008 that was up to 3 megapixel. 2009 saw a slowing of the trend and still now among new phones the most common camera resolution was 3 megapixels but 5 megapixels was the second most common camera resolution and for 2010, 5 mp cameras will become the most common on new phones. Similarly IE Market
36
Research has observed the growth of mobile phone screen sizes at about half an inch per year and currently at 2.5 inches for 2009. One should remember there are absolute limits to how large a pocketable screen can become.
Cameraphone Sales 2001-2009

Year Sold Cumulative 3M 13 M 71 M 321 M 666 M 1,116 M 1,968 M 3,048 M 4,141 M In Use 3M 13 M 68 M 299 M 598 M 935 M 1,594 M 2,315 M 2,850 M As Pct of all 0% 1% 5% 19% 31% 39% 56% 68% 73%
2001 3M 2002 10 M 2003 58 M 2004 250 M 2005 345 M 2006 450 M 2007 852 M 2008 1,080 M 2009 1,093 M
GROWTH OF PHONE CAPABILITY - 10 C'S Tomi Ahonen introduced the 8 C's evolution description to help explain how the mobile phone has grown in capability and features. That was expanded to 10 C's in
37
2009. The expansion of the phone beyond a basic communication device happened in the past eleven years from 1998.
10 C's of Cellphones: How phone evolved 1st C - Communicate (voice & SMS) - 1979 2nd C - Consume (media) - 1998 3rd C - Charging (money) - 1999 4th C - Commercials (advertising) - 2000 5th C - Create (cameraphone) - 2001 6th C - Community (social networking) - 2003 7th C - Cool (fashion) - 2005 8th C - (Remote) Control - 2007 9th C - Context (status, location etc) - 2008 10th C - Cyber (plants, animals, augmented) - 2009
The first C of Communication comes from the birth of the mobile phone as a mobile voice calling device. During the first generation of cellular telecoms, analogue systems, the mobile phone could not do more than voice calls. With 2G digital networks, starting with GSM in 1991, the mobile telecoms services added messaging, but that was still a communications service.
38
From 1998 the phone added in short succession the abilities to Consume media content, in 1999 the ability to Charge i.e. pay or use the mobile for money. In 2000 the Commercials or advertising appeared on mobile. The Creation ability was added in 2001 with the advent of the cameraphone and the Community or social networking ability in 2003. From 2005 the phone has also been a Cool item i.e. a fashion statement. Next appeared the ability of Control, using the mobile phone for remote control of other digital remote control devices and abilities from unlocking the front door at apartments in Japan to turning on the remote control tea kettle in Britain to turning on the saunabath in Finland. Today they already sell household robots in South Korea that are controlled by mobile phones. The latest two C's are Context, discovered first by Olivier 'Cooli' Guyot relating to the GPS abilities and our network awareness etc. The tenth C is now Cyber as we start to connect with non-humans like our plants sending messages to our phones when they need to be watered; and the various augmented reality and virtual reality elements to the phone. REPLACEMENT CYCLES The average replacement cycle for mobile phones had been declining from 30 months in 1998 to 14 months in
39
2008, but then with the economic downturn it spiked up to 17 months for 2009. I expect the downward trend to resume for 2010. For comparison average the replacement cycle for personal computers is about 42 months.
Replacement Cycle for Mobile Phones
35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source TomiAhonen Almanac 2010
The handset makers tend to promote means to shrink the replacement cycle as this adds to the velocity of new mobile phone sales. The phone makers also know that a typical customer will tend to upgrade the feature set of a phone when getting a new phone, which helps sell higher-cost phones to the installed base of phone users, to counter the overall economic effect of Moore's Law by which phones of similar performance keep getting cheaper and thus also less profitable.
40
In some of the most advanced markets such as Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, etc, the national average replacement cycle is down to 12 months and still shrinking. This pattern held true until the economic downturn. It is widely expected that the economic slowdown will cause a lengthening of the replacement cycle to more the recent average of about 18 months. When factoring in the ever increasing portion of multiple subscriptions, and the related phenomenon of owning and carrying two mobile phones, if a national replacement cycle is 12 months, for those with two phones within that market, the effective replacement cycle is 6 months. It should be noted, that the 'average replacement cycle' metric is often miscalculated, based on the assumption that total mobile phone subscriptions equals total mobile phones in use. That assumption held true a decade ago, but as Tomi Ahonen has explained in his lectures and books, there is an increasing gap between total subscribers and total phones in use. Thus the actual inuse population of phones is smaller than the assumption if counting all subscribers. This misunderstanding causes many casual observers to over-estimate the length of the average replacement cycle. When measured by actual phones in use, it is currently at 17 months.
41
SMARTPHONES A premium phone category is the smartphone. The Apple iPhone, the RIM Blackberry and the Nokia NSeries are typical smartphones. Before there was such a category, the forefather to the smartphone can be said to be the Nokia 9000 Communicator, a collaboration with Hewlett-Packard. It was launched in 1997 in Finland. Early smartphones were oriented to business customers and their needs.
Smartphone Sales and Installed Base
600 500 400 300 200 100
2000 2002 1998 2003 1999 2004 2001 2007 2008 2005 2006 2009
New Sales Installed Base
As the business PDA-like phone sector evolved, the industry started to talk of smarphones, as being phones for which you can install applications. Today experts may argue about semantic differences on what makes specifically a smartphone but most definitions say that a
42
smartphone needs to have an operating system that allows users to install applications.
Smart Phones out of Installed Base of All Phones
100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%
98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 19
Total phones Smartphones
The five major operating systems of smartphones are Symbian, RIM (i.e. Blackberry), Microsoft Windows for Mobile, Apple OS/X for iPhone and the Google Android. There are others such as the rapidly disappearing Palm and some Linux Mobile OS's. Nokia released a new high-end OS called Maemo, and the newest entrant to the smartphone field is Bada by Samsung. Total smartphone sales have grown gradually over the past twelve years and today account for 16% of all mobile phones sold in the world. The proportion of smartphones by operating system had been relatively stable over the past few years, but Apple's iPhone shook things up totally and today the smartphone market is
43
very much in transition. While selling only 2.2% of worldwide mobile phones of any kind and ranked 10th among handset makers, Apple has become the third biggest smartphone maker behind Nokia and RIM, with a 15% market share for smartphones sold in the year 2009.
The largest smartphone type by operating system is Symbian, which is mostly Nokia branded smartphones. RIM making Blackberries is the second largest smartphone maker and operating system selling one out of every five smartphones in the world. Microsoft's Windows Mobile used to have 30% of the market a few years ago but now has fallen to fourth place and is soon
44
to be overtaken by Google's Android. Linux and Palm have small market shares in the single digits and the new smartphone operating systems Maemo by Nokia and Bada by Samsung are listed within Others.
Smartphone OS Installed Base 2004-2009
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2004
All Others Apple iPhone RIM Blackberry Windows Mobile Symbian
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Note that in Chapter 12 the new 'apps store' opportunity of mobile data is discussed, relating to smartphones. There are some preliminary numbers and scale of the 'apps store' opportunity in that chapter. For more about the handset market including regional market shares, features, average sales prices, customer segments etc, please see the companion volume to this Almanac, the TomiAhonen Phone Book 2010.
bonus page
If you need more info about the handset market, please note the TomiAhonen Phone Book. The ebook is in the same format as this Almanac, but focuses only on the handset side of the industry including smartphones, dumbphones, OS platforms, features, app stores and other devices and accessories. The book has 98 charts and tables. See full table of contents etc at www.tomiahonen.com A special offer: buy the 2010 Phone Book during Spring 2012, get the 2012 edition when released, for no extra cost. The Phone Book costs 9.99 Euros.
Chapter 5 - Mobile Messaging
45
V
Mobile Messaging
The biggest data application on the planet
SMS Text messaging or "texting" is the single most widely used data application on the planet totally dwarfing other data applications. BRIEF HISTORY SMS text messaging was invented by then Telecom Finland (now part of TeliaSonera) executive Matti Makkonen. The concept was adopted into the GSM standard and the first machine-generated SMS message was sent in 1991 in the UK. The first commercial person-to-person SMS text message from one mobile phone to another was sent in Finland by Riku Pihkonen of Nokia, in 1993. Less than ten years later SMS had become the most widely used data application on the planet and in 2008 the total active user base of SMS text messaging passed 3 billion users (Ericsson 2009), over twice the total number of internet users worldwide and amazingly, now with 3.6 billion users, SMS text messaging is used
46
by 3 times more people than the total number of fixed landline telephones on the planet. SMS has turned into a commercial giant too, with the SMS text messaging industry reached 113 billion dollars worldwide. SMS traffic keeps growing at rates of over 20% annually, and inspite of bulk discounts and free messaging buckets, the revenues of SMS texting grew again by over 10% from the year before even in bad economic times.
SMS Text Messaging Users and Total Mobile Subscribers
5 4 3 2 1 0
19 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 98 19 99 20 20 00
Subscribers SMS users
SMS USERS As more than 99.8% of all mobile phones in use are capable of receiving SMS text messages, and are on network connections that provide mobile messaging
47
functionality (including equivalent short message email services in the case of Japanese networks), today an SMS text messages can 4.6 Billion mobile phone accounts, and thus has a reach of 68% of the planet's population. Messaging on mobile is actively used by 43% of the total human population of planet Earth. Except for mobile calls, no other technology-related interactive digital activity on the planet has as many users as SMS text messaging, by a wide margin. The future expansion potential of SMS is now reaching literally human and physical limitations such as the lack of electricity and telecoms network coverage. And when considering passing half of total humankind in user base, we arrive to the current limits of literacy. TRAFFIC As SMS texting is an addictive service, it is witnessing growth rates that seem to never stop growing. Global leaders are the Philippines where subscribers average sending out 26 SMS per day per subscriber, Singapore comes in at 12 per day, South Korea 10, Ecuador 9, Malaysia 8, and USA at 6 SMS text messages sent per subscriber per day and 6 SMS . Note that American statistics such as those reported by the CTIA, "double-count" each sent message, as American networks still charge in an archaic way both
48
for sending SMS text messages and receiving them. So 'official' US statistics such as those from the CTIA will report twice the number of actual messages sent. This makes US statistics not compatible with the common way of accounting for SMS traffic in other countries. In this Almanac the US SMS traffic has been adjusted to be consistent with the rest of the world statistics.
SMS Text Messages Sent Globally in Trillions
5 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: TomiAhonen Almanac2010
During 2009 a total of 4.6 Trillion (4,600 Billion) SMS text messages were sent worldwide. That amounts to 2.7 SMS sent per day for all mobile subscribers. When measured against the active user base of SMS texting, the average is 3.5 SMS text messages sent per day. For
49
those with two accounts, the number needs to be doubled this is 7.0 SMS per day, such as for over half of Europeans.
Installed Base of Messaging Capable Phones by Type
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 19
Non Messaging SMS Capable MMS Capable eMail Capable
Source: TomiAhonen Almanac2010
To put it another way, in January 2010 the world average is 12 billion SMS text messages sent every day, or 525 million per hour, or 8.7 million per minute, or 146,000 SMS text messages sent every second of every day 365 days of the year. At a global average price of 2.5 cents per SMS, this industry generates a fresh million dollars of new revenues every 4.5 minutes of every day of the year. VS EMAIL
50
Since first reported by the Nokia Global Messaging Study of 2001 and independently collaborated by an Orange survey of UK and French youth at that time, the young populations all around the world prefer using SMS texting to email. Even American youth followed this global pattern as reported by ComScore Media Metrix in June 2006. Korean youth say that email is only for communicating with much older people such as your boss, while American youth say "Email is, like, so yesterday." SMS passed email in total users worldwide as far back as 2002. By 2007 there were 1.2 billion active users of email, with 1.8 billion email inboxes (Radicati 2007). But worldwide that same year, over 2.5 billion people were active users of SMS text messaging, i.e. 74% of all mobile phone subscribers (CMG Logica 2007). Today the total active user base of SMS is 3.6 billion people. SMS HAS TWO INHERENT ADVANTAGES SMS texting has two absolute advantages over any other form of electronic communication. First of all, SMS is the most private form of communication, far less obtrusive than a voice call say in a public bus, airport lounge or waiting room to an important meeting, SMS messages can carry on communications in silence, with nobody eavesdropping.
51
Compared to email and instant messaging, there is no big screen like on a PC, for bystanders to read messages. Emails are routinely monitored at many offices and email logs kept on data servers, SMS messages are only stored on the phone(s) involved. eMail can be accessed - and even hacked into - by other account holders, supervisors etc. The only way to read another person's SMS is to physically get their phone.
SMS sent per month by active user
120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Secondly, SMS is fastest communication ever - by through-put. This claimed speed benefit is often perceived on first glance to be illogical - surely it is faster to hit the redial button, be connected within seconds,
52
and talk to a person, than to triple-tap a clumsy message. Yes, under rare circumstances, a voice call can be slightly faster than sending an SMS - by a factor of less than one minute.
SMS Text Messaging Annual Revenues in Billions of Dollars 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
But by most use cases it is the opposite and SMS is faster to deliver an intended communication for example when the other person is not at the phone, does not answer the phone, cannot talk at that very moment, puts you on hold, cannot hear you or the call is interrupted (network coverage problems etc). Today in most cases of the first attempt of a voice call ends up in voicemail. Thus in most normal use cases SMS is faster by minutes, easily half an hour, often many hours faster!
53
Even if the other person has the phone turned off (sleeping in another time zone or in an airplane etc) SMS is delivered before voicemail can be retrieved. As to the speed? Only half of email users expect a response within 24 hours, but 84% of SMS users expect a response in 5 minutes (160 Characters 2007). REVENUES AND PRICE
Average cost of SMS
0.250 0.200 0.150 0.100 0.050 0.000 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
SMS text messaging keeps growing dramatically year by year. In 2009 worldwide SMS user base and messaging traffic grew again strongly. And despite severe cost cuts in per-message costs and ever larger free messaging
54
bundles offered by the mobile operators, the total revenues earned by SMS also grew once again. The average cost of a message sent worldwide is now 2.5 cents per message. Still the most profitable global business of all time, profit margins in person-to-person SMS texting are still at over 70% worldwide and in the Industrialized World countries where average SMS prices are typically over 10 cents per message, the profit margin exceeds 97%. YOUTH OR BEYOND? Initially SMS texting started in most industrialized countries with teenagers using it for cryptic, and often sensitive private communications, including attempting to cheat in school exams. Still today most markets show heaviest SMS usage among older teens and young adults, with 10% of British students and 30% of Korean students averaging 100 SMS text messages sent per day. But texting spread up the age brackets, and in some cases leapfrogged a generation as grandparents connected with their teenaged grandkids using SMS. Furthermore SMS is immersive. The UK Transport Research Laboratory found in 2008 that texting while driving reduces reaction time by 35%, more than being drunk or stoned.
55
SMS Text Messaging Use by Age

6-15 16-25 26-35 36-45 46-55 56-65 65+ 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Perhaps the best evidence of how far up the age SMS has gone comes from Norway, where one TV show, "Danseband Jukebox", achieved a viewer-participation world record as 56% of its total viewership has sent a text message to the show. But here is the catch: its not a teenager pop music show. This TV show has no viewers under the age of 55, the TV studio live band plays only classical ballroom dance music (tangos, waltzes etc) and the viewing average age is over 70. If over half of that population can send SMS requests to the TV show, there is no age limit to SMS.
56
BUSINESS USE OF SMS

SMS Usage Regionally as Percent of Subscribers
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
da st op in g ed a Ea st es ric an a nc Ea W Af er Am tin La
ad va
pe
de v
ro
&
ro
SA
Eu
Eu
AC
Business use of SMS may initially seem counterintuitive. However during the past decade European and Asian business executives discovered the business benefits of both the most discrete (secretive) telecommunication method and most speedy communications. Soon those executives abandoned prejudices about SMS and now use it regularly in business communications. By 2002 already 80% of British business executives were using SMS for work related communications with
AP
As
ia
id
dl e
pe
el
ic
57
heavy users receiving 40 work related SMS per day according to the MDA. Not just business: the Singapore government decided in 2006 that all e-government initiatives must be made accessible via SMS text messaging. PREMIUM SMS While 79% of all SMS text messaging revenues are person-to-person revenues, a significant part of the total SMS traffic and revenues come from various 'premium SMS' services such as voting for TV shows such as American Idol, Big Brother, etc, paying for content such as a coca cola can from a vending machine or paying for public transportation, or sending disaster aid contributions to the victims of the disaster in Haiti. Premium SMS has hundreds of applications ranging from ringing tone downloads to payments for internet content such as pioneered by internet online social networking community Habbo Hotel. The total value of premium SMS is 23 billion dollars, included in the total for SMS of 113 billion dollars. Person-to-person SMS is worth 90 billion dollars. In this Almanac, premium SMS services are covered in the next chapters relating to content various types. Finally it should be noted, that in developing parts of Africa, Asia and Latin America, SMS text messaging is
58
the only practical communication tool to deliver digital content to all of the economically viable segment of the population. MMS MULTIMEDIA MESSAGING MMS or Multimedia Messaging is often misunderstood and thought of as a failure, because it was early on promoted as the 'picture messaging' platform to allow cameraphone users to send pictures from one phone to another. While person-to-person 'picture messaging' is certainly one significant opportunity for MMS, a far bigger use for MMS is as a mass media platform.
59
70% of MMS traffic In China for example is media and information, not person-to-person traffic (ZTE 2009). In advanced countries like Norway 84% of the population send MMS (TNS Gallup 2009) and in China MMS is so common it is considered a 'mature' messaging platform like SMS (China Mobile 2009). Across the planet MMS is already used by 37% of all mobile phone subscribers which is 1.7 billion people. 48% of Asians send picture messages (TNS 2007) and 73% of British users do so (Aenas 2009). And of the revenues, 80% of MMS revenues are earned in the Emerging World countries (Morgan Stanley 2009) Obviously MMS reaches more people than email, in fact MMS is now as big in reach as the total internet including PC based legacy internet, shared PC use 'internet cafe' users, and mobile internet users, all put together. Or in other words, there are more active users of MMS than total TV sets used on the planet. OTHER MESSAGING ON MOBILE Mobile eMail and Mobile IM (Instant Messaging) are growing parts of the messaging portfolio but with far smaller user numbers, total traffic loads and in particular far smaller revenues than Person-to-Person SMS, Premium SMS and MMS.
bonus page
Do you want more info?

Tomi T Ahonen has released an eBook with 50 case studies of the best examples of mobile money and payments. "Tomi Ahonen's Pearls Vol 3: Mobile Money." The eBook is 171 pages in length, covers all major areas of mobile payments, coupons, wallets, credit cards and mobile banking. The eBook includes major global innovators such Coca Cola, Finnair, Tesco, M-Pesa, Borders, Visa and NTT DoCoMo's Osaifu-Keitai. The services include charities, betting, government fees, transportation, virtual currencies etc. The cost for eBook is only 9.99 Euros. See sample pages including several of the case studies at
www.tomiahonen.com
(this advertisement is not counted in the 180 pages...
Chapter 6 - Mobile Internet
60
VI
Mobile Internet
is more than the legacy internet on mobile
The following chapters discuss mobile content. There are several similar, overlapping and confusing terms to describe the mobile data industry, including the "mobile internet", the "wireless internet", "mobile browsing", "mobile data", "downloading mobile content", "nonmessaging mobile data", "Mobile VAS services", "premium messaging", etc. Thus there also are widely varying reports of how advanced data services are used on mobile phones, simply based on the differences in definitions used, not to mention the competence and knowhow of the research organization and their understanding of this complex industry. Totally valid claims of 'mobile data' use can vary from as little as 600 million people as active users to as many as 3.7 billion people. These are not contradictory numbers, they are dependent on which definition is used. So lets start by defining the common terminology relating to mobile data services and indicate what kind of magnitude and scale we talk about if we use that definition.
61
DEFINITIONS OF MOBILE DATA The most broad term is "wireless data" or the "wireless internet". This includes any wireless technology, such as cellular telecoms (2G, 3G and beyond); 802.11 W-LAN i.e. WiFi; Bluetooth; and any other technologies such as WiMax (802.16), NFC (Near Field Communications) etc. Wireless data and the wireless internet can include wireless data services on laptops, PDAs, even videogaming consoles. This Almanac does not address the larger wireless data and wireless internet opportunity. It will focus only on the mobile telecoms (i.e. cellular telecoms) data opportunity, excluding WiFi, WiMax, Bluetooth, near-field and other such methods.
Subscribers, Messaging Users, Data Users 5 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0
19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09
Total subscribers Messaging users Premium data users
62
The common mobile data definitions are listed in this accompanying table in diminishing order of magnitude from left to right.
Mobile Data User Numbers in Billions by Using Different Definitions
5 4 3 2 1
Total Subs Downloading incl ringtone Browsing Users incl WAP
Definitions to the above graph: Mobile Data including SMS includes all forms of mobile access to data services, including SMS, MMS and email messaging; browsing; data access such as data modems and dongles; and downloading. This is a valid measure of the mobile data opportunity and of the different measures, this is the "most optimistic" measure. The total user number by this measure is 3.7 billion. SMS Users is the active users base of SMS text
Real Internet Access phone
Mobile Data Subscriptions incl inactives
MMS Active users
SMS users
Premium Data Users
Mobile Data incl SMS
Premium SMS Users
63
messaging (including person-to-person and premium SMS text messaging). It is marginally less than Mobile Data users. The number is 3.6 billion. Mobile Data Subscriptions Including Inactives, is the total global subscription count of customers who pay for premium data, including those with data plan included with the current subscription. This is typically the payment plan for all 3G and most 2.5G subscribers. This measure over-counts the total user base as it includes many who pay for the data access as part of their service package, but are not using premium data services. The number is 3.1 billion. Premium Data Users includes all users who consume any type of premium data, including all users of MMS, all who downloading mobile content or apps, all browsing users, all users of premium-SMS and all who use a data modem or dongle. In other words, 'premium data' only removes person-to-person 'basic' SMS text messaging from the measure. The number of premium data users on mobile today worldwide is 2.2 billion. MMS Active Users are those who send at least one MMS "picture message" per month or subscribe to any MMS media services. The number is 1.7 billion. Downloading Including Ringing Tones is the total number of mobile phone owners who have downloaded
64
content or applications to a phone in the past month, such as games, pictures, applications, ringing tones, etc. The number is 1.5 billion. Browsing Users Including WAP is the most commonly accepted definition of a "mobile internet" (as distinct from 'the real internet on a phone' see below) and includes all who used any type of browser-based service on a mobile phone, including any internet web browser, or any WAP or i-Mode or other mobile phone browser, including mobile operator portals. The number is 1.3 billion. Premium SMS Users includes all premium SMS use, such as voting for television shows, making premium SMS payments and downloading basic ringing tones using premium SMS. The number is 900 million. Real Internet Access by Phone is any use of a mobile subscription to access the IP based internet or Worldwide Web (WWW) or the "real internet" using a mobile phone or a laptop with data modem or dongle. The number is 600 million. MOBILE BROWSING VS LEGACY INTERNET TomiAhonen Consulting has tracked the method of internet access (including all browsing on phones including WAP and i-Mode) since 2001 and reported on
65
these trends. The cross-over point happened in 2008, when for the first time, more people accessed browserbased content using a mobile phone than did so using a personal computer (laptops and desktops, combined) The current split of the three types of access are divided in 2008 for the first time so, that more people access exclusively on a phone, than access exclusively on a personal computer. Still the largest part is access using both a PC and mobile phone.
Internet Access Type by Device
1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0
98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 19
PC Phone
Most users who access on both methods, tend to use more time and put more traffic on the PC based method of access. Already over a dozen countries report more
66
mobile phone access to the internet than PC access, such as Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Philippines, India, Pakistan, Kenya, South Africa, etc. Japan has become the first country to report that the majority of usage as in times an internet user logs on is also from mobile users. This still does not mean that total usage in terms of traffic even in Japan has yet shifted from PCs to mobile. However, Japan became the first country where the usage times on mobile exceed usage times on PCs in 2007 as reported by the Japanese regulator.
67
It is important to note that most people who access the internet (or more precisely, browser-based content and services) in the world, do so using both a PC and a mobile phone, with more specialized uses and access on either platform. When a user has access to both devices, the PC is more suited for "browsing" and such services as search. The mobile phone is more suited for urgent use such as reading email and services such as alerts.
Mobile Data Users by Region (including SMS)
100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%

da st an ce d g a es t st Af ric pi n de ve lo Am er ic an a W Ea Ea a
pe
ad v
ro p
&
ro
id
dl e
SA
Eu
Eu
AC
In the Developing World, however, the vast majority of internet users do not have access to a personal computer at home or at work. Some use internet cafe's or access the internet on personal computers at university campuses etc., but the significantly larger
AP
As
La
ia
tin
68
opportunity is with browser-equipped feature phones on 2.5G networks. For more see Chapter 18 on the Digital Divide later in this 2010 edition of the Almanac. Even when such a phone is a considerable investment, it is far cheaper than a personal computer and a broadband connection. A further hindrance to PC access is limited broadband and even narrowband (dialup) internet connectivity, in particular to most of Africa. Even if costly on a per-megabyte basis, a mobile internet connectivity is often the only viable option to access any internet services in many parts of the Developing World. Telenor said in 2009 for example that in countries like India and Bangladesh, the mobile phone based internet will be the first experience of the internet for the majority of the customers in that region. MOBILE DATA REVENUES The total mobile data market is worth 251 billion dollars in 2008 of which 153 billion dollars is from messaging data services and 98 B is from non-messaging data services. The internet appeared as a mass market consumer proposition in 1994. Today, the total internet industry including all content revenues, internet advertising revenues, and broadband and dial-up fees, is worth about 200 billion dollars. The mobile data industry is already larger than all revenues generated by
69
the older legacy PC based internet including access fees. For other comparisons with the 153 billion dollar mobile messaging industry, it is slightly smaller than mobile handset sales, worth about 160 billion dollars annually. The global casino industry is worth about 110 billion dollars.
Total Mobile Data Revenues
300 250 200 150 100 50 0
2003 2002 2007 2008 1999 2004 2005 2006 1998 2000 2001 2009
Value-Add Services Mobile Messaging
Then lets compare the non-messaging data of 98 billon dollars in size. The worldwide movie industry including box office revenues, DVD sales and rentals, and various other revenue streams such as airline, cable TV and broadcast TV distribution income relating to movies, is
70
worth about 80 billion dollars. The global coffee industry and the book publishing industry are worth about 85 billion dollars in value. Note that the mobile (non-messaging) data industry is the world's fastest industry to pass 50 billion dollars in size, doing that in just nine years. The compound annual growth rate has been a staggering 61% sustained over a ten year period and even in 2009 with the economic downturn, the premium VAS (Value Add Services) data industry of mobile grew at 37%. AVERAGE REVENUE PER PREMIUM DATA USER
Mobile Premium Data Revenues as Average Per Subscriber 2.00 1.80 1.60 1.40 1.20 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
71
The premium data revenue earned per subscriber across the total global subscriber base grew slowly in the early part of the decade when only few countries had launched meaningful national data services, led by Japan and South Korea and the Scandinavian countries. After 2.5G and 3G networks were launched near the middle of the decade, the average revenue of nonmessaging data use grew strongly and today is at a global average of 1.78 dollars per month per subscriber across the total global subscriber base (including all non-users). This growth curve reflects primarily the expansion of mobile data services across a larger user base and the handset population capable of consuming those services, not a particular 'explosion' of actual services consumed by the active use base. The total growth of the ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) when measured against global mobile subscriber base shows a strong upward trend. A more pertinent number, however, is to examine the average monthly revenues generated against active users of (nonmessaging) mobile VAS data. The surprising finding is, that even as the total global mobile data user base has expanded from zero to 1.7 billion users in the past ten years, and as the value-add data market spread from the most advanced and wealthy markets such as Japan and South Korea, the
72
global average monthly spending on all VAS premium mobile data has remained stable when averaged against all active users of premium mobile data, at just under four and a half US dollars per active user per month.
Mobile VAS Data ARPU by Active VAS User 7 6.5 6 5.5 5 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
The gradual decline in the total monthly spend of mobile VAS data services has the average spent by active users has turned up for 2009 and is now at 3.80 US dollars per month. It should be noted that up until 2008, the role of advertising has been so slight, that this amount has almost all been also reflected as payments by end-users.
Chapter 7 - Seventh Mass Media
73
VII
Seventh Mass Media Channel
The fourth screen for media content
The Mobile Phone has emerged as the 7th Mass Media channel. It is as different from the internet as TV is from radio. Mobile also has as much potential beyond the internet, as TV had over radio. Trying to force concepts from the internet, TV, or other previous media will produce disappointing audience experience on mobile. But understanding the unique power of mobile will deliver success on the newest mass media. SEVEN MASS MEDIA The first four mass media tended to be strongly focused. The traditional media are well known with established formats. News and weather work on radio, long-form stories in books and cinema; videogames work on recordings etc. Print the oldest, from the 1500s. It introduced the buy-to-own business model for books and advertising and subscriptions to newspapers and magazines. Recordings (late 1890s) introduced performance media separating the creative element (the writer/composer) and the performer with the performing artist, such as Edith Piaff, Elvis, etc. Cinema (1900s)
74
turned celebrity into superstar with the first global icon, Charlie Chaplin. Cinema introduced multimedia content and the pay-per-view business model. Many thought cinema would kill books but it didn't. Radio (1910s) brought the broadcast model to media. Radio was the first pervasive media, received simultaneously by all.
The Seven Mass Media

First Mass Media Channel - Print from the 1500s Second Mass Media Channel - Recordings from 1900s Third Mass Media Channel - Cinema from 1910s Fourth Mass Media Channel - Radio from 1920s Fifth Mass Media Channel - TV from 1950s Sixth Mass Media Channel - Internet from 1990s Seventh Mass Media Channel - Mobile from 2000s
Television is the fifth mass media channel (1950s). TV is the most influential mass media today globally and was the first mass media that took elements from previous legacy mass media and both combined and improved
75
upon them. Not all legacy mass media, TV did not take much from print or recordings, but it did "combine" the best abilities of cinema (multimedia, moving pictures) and radio (broadcast reach). Even as TV forced the consumer to purchase a remarkably expensive home electronics device - early TV sets were far more expensive than the most elaborate home record players or radio sets during the 1950s - yet television soon overtook all previous mass media in its influence. Where families in the 1930s sat around the radio set to listen to a soap opera, concert or the news, in the 1960s those families organized their living rooms to allow good viewing of TV. TV discovered the power of the celebrity such as talk shows, game shows and reality TV. After the advent of MTV Music videos, suddenly MTV - no longer radio - became the deciding factor to a music artist's success. TV did not kill radio, it pushed radio to a niche player still played in the car for example. So enter the sixth mass media channel, the internet, in the 1990s. As a mass medium, the internet is the first "inherent threat media" that is capable of replicating all of the other five previous media - we can read books, magazines and newspapers online; view movies; listen to radio; view TV; download recordings e.g. MP3 files, computer software, videogames etc.
76
This was not true of any of the first five mass media, for example you cannot read a newspaper over radio, or sell a music record through the silver screen and movie projector in the cinema (yes, you could sell the soundtrack in the lobby, but that is part of the recordings industry, not cinema, and only using the venue of the movie theater as an alternate sales outlet). That is why the internet today is such a cannibalizing threat to the first five media. Furthermore, the internet introduced three new element that did not exist in legacy mass media: interactivity, search and social networking. Capable of copying all that earlier media could do, it is no surprise the internet cannibalizes existing mass media today at alarming speeds. MOBILE REPLICATES INTERNET BENEFITS Enter the 7th of the mass media: mobile. Mobile emerged as a mass media from about the year 2000. Compared with legacy mass media, mobile has wider reach of a potential audience. Also compared with legacy mass media channels, mobile is carried more during the day, and is accessed and looked at more individual times than we look at any other device, gadget or media. Like the internet before it, today the phone can replicate everything the previous six mass media can do
77
(including the internet). You can consume newspapers, read magazine articles, listen to radio and podcasts, buy MP3 songs, watch TV, even watch whole movies on the phone. Even printed books see a threat from mobile. In Japan the value of books, sold to be read on mobile phones is worth nearly half a billion dollars annually. MYTHS OF DEFICIENCIES The youngest of the seven media, mobile is by far the least understood. Many compare it to the internet, and think because of screen size and lesser keypad, mobile is "simpler" or "dumber" and think mobile is a "reduced" offering, where viewers will only "snack" at highlights. The phone has a small keypad, but it is also designed to be able to be operated on one hand. Proficient young users can speed-tap on two phones communicating with two separate parallel discussions simultaneously and achieve performance that exceeds the fastest typists using only one PC and switching between two applications at the same time. The phone is different, not inferior. The modern phone inputs of top-end phones totally trump the PC for input options. Top end smartphones have touch screens and full QWERTY keypads like the Nokia N97, as well as motion sensors as introduced by the Apple iPhone, allowing gaming experiences similar
78
to the Wii gaming console and far superior to the keyboard and mouse on a laptop (for such gaming as Guitar Hero). The phone has a camera, so it can directly input pictures, videos and use the scanner for 2D Barcodes. Furthermore, the phone offers voice inputs and allows networked inputs like GPS positioning information. The phone is better at inputs, even where the PC has a better keyboard. The screen size is also a red herring. Phone screens are smaller yes, but are also viewed at a shorter range than the TV or laptop screen. Advanced phones have TV-out, so the phone screen output can be viewed on the big plasma screen at home or the PC screen or video projector even, at the office. Furthermore, the mobile phone can also connect wirelessly to other options such as displaying interactivity on giant billboard screens like Nike did with a shoe-design application, where phone owners could design phones at Times Square on the giant screen and passers-by could see it. CANNIBALIZATION Its not just that mobile is a new mass medium and it can replicate the legacy six mass media. In fact mobile as the seventh mass media is by far the most powerful. It is as different to the web as TV is to radio; mobile's
79
influence will be greater than the internet has achieved; mobile to internet will become as dominating as TV became over radio. Like the internet could cannibalize all first five mass media, now mobile can cannibalize all six legacy mass media. But the opposite is not true, the internet cannot cannibalize all of the services on mobile, for example you cannot do ringtones or ringback tones on the PC based internet.
Cannibalization Threat by Media Channel

Ability to cannibalize other media content Threat to be cannibalized Print Recording Cinema Radio TV Internet Mobile No No No No No No Yes Yes Yes No No No Some No No No No No No No No Print Record'g Cinema Radio Some No No No Some No TV No No Yes Yes Internet Mobile Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
TomiAhonen Consulting has also analyzed the cannibalization threats by each of the seven mass
80
media channels, how much one can cannibalize the other. Not every mass media can cannibalize another, for example you cannot show movies on radio, or (in a commercially viable way for each audience member) read a newspaper on the cinema screen. The two interactive digital mass media, internet the sixth and mobile the seventh mass media can potentially cannibalize any of the five legacy mass media. Note that mobile can cannibalize internet, but not the other way. 8 UNIQUE BENEFITS OF MOBILE Mobile has eight elements not available on any of the previous mass media. The first four were specified by Tomi Ahonen in 2005 when first discussing the 7th mass media taxonomy. The fifth benefit was discovered by author and mobile guru Tony Fish. The sixth benefit was explained by AMF Ventures. The seventh benefit was discovered by Alan Moore of SMLXL together with Xtract. The eighth benefit was discovered by Raimo van der Klein of Layar the augmented reality browser company, in 2009. (1) The phone is the first personal media. A wired 2006 survey found 63% of the population do not share the phone even with one's spouse, it is that personal.
81
(2) The phone is permanently carried. Morgan Stanley reported in 2007 that 91% keep the mobile within 1 meter (3 feet) range 24 hours a day including when sleeping.
8 Unique Benefits of 7th Mass Media

1. Mobile is first personal mass media channel 2. 3. 4. 5. Mobile is permanently carried Mobile is always on Mobile has built-in payment channel Mobile is available at point of creative impulse, enabling user-generated content 6. Mobile has most accurate audience data 7. Only cellphone captures social context of media consumption 8. Mobile enables Augmented Reality
Adapted from Tomi T Ahonen book Mobile as 7th of the Mass Media, 2008
(3) The phone is first always-on mass media, allowing fastest news delivery. So fast in fact, that other broadcast media, TV and radio offer alerts via SMS. (4) The phone has a built-in payment mechanism. No other media has a built-in payment mechanism, even on the internet you have to subscribe to PayPal or provide
82
a credit card, etc. But already today, older media collect payments through the phone such as internet service Habbo Hotel and TV shows like American Idol. (5) The phone is a creative tool available always at the point of creative impulse. The cameraphone is in our pocket, always at the ready to snap images and clips. User-generated content is radically altering the media world as seen at YouTube etc, the advent of citizen journalism, etc. (6), Mobile has near-perfect audience information. AMF Ventures measured in 2007 that on TV only 1% of audience gets measured; on the internet that is better at 10%; but on mobile 90% of the audience is measured. (7) Only mobile can capture the social context of media consumption. Not what we consume, but rather with whom. Social Analytics specialist firms like Xtract offer a new wealth of real behaviour based insights to communities and their influencers "Alpha Users" etc. The CEO of engagement marketing firm SMLXL, Alan Moore says "Social analytics is the new black gold for 21st century." (8) Mobile enables augmented reality mass media services. Previously augmented reality only worked on very expensive military helmets, goggles and high tech
83
displays such as head-up displays on some sports cars. Today augmented reality can be done on smartphones. CREATING SERVICES WITH SIX M'S The only industry-standard tool for creating commercially successful mobile services is "The Six M's" developed by Tomi T Ahonen together with Joe Barrett of Nokia and Paul Golding of Motorola.
The 6 M's Mobile Service Creation Tool

Movement - Escaping the fixed place Moment - Expanding the concept of time Me - Expressing myself Multi-user - Extending my experiences to my friends Money - Expending financial resources Machines - Enabling automation and machines
The 6 M's mobile service creation system and management tool was developed by Tomi T Ahonen with Joe Barrett of Nokia and Paul Golding of Motorola
The Six M's are Movement, Moment, Me, Multi-user, Money and Machines. The Six M's is also used as a
84
management tool to compare rival service candidates and to evolve mobile services to become every better. This tool is referenced in over a dozen books and used by the leading mobile vendors, operators, developers and content owners all around the world. REGIONAL COMPARISON
Mobile Media Markets Regionally by Revenue 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
es t ng t Ea st ed da Ea s a an a op i nc W Af ad va Am er ic ric a
pe
ve l
pe
ro
ro
de
&
id
dl
U SA
The mobile media market is strongly skewed to Asia. Advanced Asia-Pacific markets account for 37% of the total mobile media revenues in 2008 and developing parts of Asia account for another 12% thus Asia and the
AP A
As ia
La tin
Eu
Eu
85
Pacific region deliver almost half of mobile media revenues in 2008 Compared to the other metrics for the industry, Europe is proportionately smaller at this consumption and North America proportionately larger. It reflects mostly the strong adoption of SMS text messaging in Europe and the relative lack of it in North America, which in turn brings the a far greater proportion of mobile data in Europe from SMS text messaging. One might say the European market has been "preoccupied" by the SMS opportunity while America has focused more on premium data services. It may also help explain why European mobile operators/carriers are far more profitable than their American counterparts, where expanding the business opportunity of the most profitable service (SMS) with modest further development R&D costs is far more useful to the balance sheets than deploying a vast array of VAS services that need a lot of R&D and marketing effort; and often also bleed much of the profits to content owners and application development partners. AVERAGE REVENUES PER USER BY REGION The average revenue per user (ARPU) that is spent on mobile media content alters the picture of the total
86
revenues by the relative local price levels of the media content services. In the advanced Asia Pacific markets, led by Japan and South Korea, the average monthly spend by mobile phone subscribers on media content has passed 8 US dollars. The USA and Canada come in second, with nearly 6 US dollars. Western European media spend on mobile is half that level when measured against the total mobile phone subscriber base.
Monthly Average Revenue Spent on Mobile Media by Region 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
es t st g nc ed st a op in a an ad W Af ad va Am tin La
ro p
ro p
ve l
Eu
de
&
Eu
SA
AC
Understandably the developing world produces very modest monthly mobile content revenues, in particular
AP
As ia
id
dl e
er ic
Ea
Ea
ric
87
when calculated as a monthly average against very large subscriber bases. MOBILE MEDIA REVENUES BY TYPE
Mobile Content Revenues Globally by Type
TV, video, SMS-TV $14.0 Music $13.9 Gaming $11.6 Social networking $10.3 News and alerts $9.8 Advertising $5.9 Adult $5.1 Education #3.8 Search $3.2 Pictures/Logos $2.9 Gambling $2.9 m-Health $2.4 Other Mobile VAS $12.2
0
10
12
The largest category is somewhat a manufactured group for this Almanac, in the interests of summarizing
88
data, consisting of all TV and video related services, including SMS-voting for TV. Many analysts separate the video content consumed on a phone from the TV industry related SMS voting services. But when grouping these two together, TV and video related services have moved ahead of music as the largest content category for mobile and are worth 14.0 B dollars. Music is still big in mobile media content and growing at $13.9 billion dollars worth in 2009. Gaming is the third largest category and is now worth $11.6 billion dollars. The fourth category to pass ten billion dollars in annual revenues is social networking, which is now worth $10.3 billion dollars in 2008. These four have a chapter dedicated to each of them in this Almanac. Next in size follow news and alerts at 9.8 billion dollars. Advertising has passed adult entertainment in size, followed by education, search, picture downloads, gambling, and mobile health. The miscellaneous category is worth 17.5 billion dollars and includes jokes, cartoons, maps, mobile books, location-based services, sports, movie downloads, horoscopes, religious services, etc. Each of these categories is worth less than two billion US dollars in size. I need to point out that the above categorization includes significant 'double-counting'. This is inevitable in this
89
stage of the industry before we get more formalized and centralized data collection and reporting. What do I mean? I mean that for example 'music video' worth about 1.4 billion dollars - has been counted both in 'Music' and in 'TV, Video and SMS-to-TV' categories. Why? Because within any one category, it 'belongs' there, music video sold to phones is both music, and video. In most cases there is no discrepancy: a ringing tone is nothing other than music obviously. This method of accounting means that the individual categories are the 'total' opportunity within that group, but when added together, they would result in more than the global total. That in turn has been 'adjusted' in the Miscellaneous category which in reality would be dramatically larger, at 25.3 billion dollars.
Advertisement
Bonus Page
Note: At the back of this eBook is an excerpt from Tomi Ahonen's sixth "real book" the 322 page hardcover volume entitled Mobile as 7th of the Mass Media. The excerpt covers the full first chapter of that book. The excerpt and the book will further help readers understand how mobile is emerging as a mass media and how to build compelling services to utilize the unique benefits of mobile.
(this advertising page is not counted in the 180 page length of this Almanac)
Chapter 8 - Mobile Music
90
VIII
Music on Mobile
The first mobile content type
Music is the oldest form of mobile content. The first mobile content was the ringing tone, launched by Saunalahti (now part of Elisa) onto only five models of only Nokia phones, that had that peculiar feature, that they accepted "user-installed" ringing tones. Soon ringing tones would propel famed artists to enormous profits - such as 50 Cent with his hit In Da Club, which in 2003 earned more as ringing tone than all other music formats for that hit rap tune, combined. More notoriously the Crazy Frog - at the value of 500 million dollars of global sales of their ring tones and related services in 2005 - had the phenomenon of one ringing tone earning more than all of Apple iTunes global sales that year. A peculiar milestone was recently passed, when Francisco Tarrega's classic guitar tune Gran Vals became the most sold song of all time, selling more copies in its lifetime than Elvis, the Beatles or Michael Jackson had achieved in their recording careers. When I say Gran Vals, you might not recognize the tune, but if I
91
say 'The Nokia Tune' then you know exactly what song I mean. As part of over 2.5 Billion phones sold by Nokia that have had that song pre-installed, obviously forming a miniscule small portion of the 'bundle' of the Nokia phone and the Gran Vals, it has indeed been sold over 2.5 Billion copies. Not bad for a ringing tone. It is also the most recognized song on the planet, more so than Love Me Tender or White Christmas or Happy Birthday.
Installed Base of Music Capable Phones
100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%
1998 2001 2002 2003 1999 2000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Non-Music phones Ringtone phones Media-player
RINGBACK TONES The first more advanced form of mobile music that became a major success was the ringback (or waiting tone) music, which was launched in South Korea by
92
WiderThan on the SK Telecom network. Then in 2003, the first real songs, as MP3 music downloads were introduced by Sony Music also in South Korea. Since that time, more advanced mobile music concepts have been developed including mobile karaoke in South Korea and Japan, while India introduced the background song. Also music videos were soon popular as a form of music consumed on phones. Other even more esoteric mobile music services launched such as Shazam the "song identification" service which has over 35 million paying users in 60 countries earning 100 million dollars annually.
Annual Sales of Pocketable MP3 Players by Type
700 600 500 400 Musicphone MP3 300 200 100 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
MP3 player & iPod
93
MUSICPHONES The musicphone with in-built MP3 player entered the market as a mass-market device in 2003 in South Korea. The early musicphones were only sold in some leading edge markets. The first mass-market musicphone that went for sale in the West was the Motorola Rokr, a phone seen as a failure, in 2005.
Mobile Music Consumers
1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
For a short while in 2005 the battle was even between the iPod and musicphones when only a few musicphone
94
models were in the market. Then the phone shot past the iPod and other MP3 players.
Mobile Music Revenues
16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: TomiAhonen Almanac 2010
As I reported on these trends in 2006, many music enthusiasts and Apple loyalists argued bitterly that the iPod was immune from the challenge by 'inferior' musicphones, and that normal people would not listen to music on such poor players. I was vindicated in 2009 when Apple admitted at its quarterly results investor call, that they had to rush the iPhone to the market for 2007 because Apple's own market research revealed that musicphones were cannibalizing the market for the iPod.
95
MUSIC CONSUMERS The first mobile music customer was the youth and they enjoyed the early ringing tones. Then as the youth noticed that their parents also started to download ringing tones of "their music", the youth started to feel that ringing tones were no longer cool, and a shift started away from ringing tones to more advanced forms of mobile music, such as MP3 full-track downloads, ringback tones, music videos, mobile karaoke etc.
Today the role of the basic ringing tone is coming to an end. It is still worth several billion dollars but is now in
96
decline in both total users and total revenues at the expense of more advanced types of mobile music services. MOBILE MUSIC BY TYPE Basic monophonic ringing tones no longer form the bulk of mobile music revenues. Ringback tones (waiting tones) have grown to be the biggest single part of mobile music worth 4.1 Billion dollars. The samples from real songs, so-called Realtones (also knows as Mastertones) are now the second biggest part of mobile music. MP3 full-track music downloads, music videos and music streaming are the other major categories, with miscellaneous niche music services such as mobile karaoke, welcoming songs, background songs, music identification etc forming the last part of mobile music in 2008.
Chapter 9 - Mobile TV, Video..
97
IX
Mobile TV, Video and SMS-to-TV
Small screen teevee
Last year for the 2009 edition of the Almanac I decided to combine the 'video' services of mobile/TV, i.e. 'mobile TV services' and 'video' downloads and streaming, with "SMS-to-TV" services. I argued that both were equally relevant to a TV/Video-oriented media concept. Today increasingly this is being accepted as the definition for total mobile TV and video services category. It does create a huge category that is growing very strong on all three legs. Traditional broadcast type of TV is expanding and starting to make money, while not yet profits, on mobile. Video clips such as YouTube and video streaming are gaining great popularity with better screens on modern phones and higher data transmission speeds. And the broadcast industry is jumping on the SMS voting bandwagon with seemingly new reality TV shows introduced continuously. Television-interactivity includes SMS televoting and various games that use interactivity on TV. It also includes TV chat boards run on premium SMS and
98
uploads of pictures and video to television shows, such as i-Report to CNN. In India 44% of mobile phone owners have voted on TV shows via SMS (Vital Analytics 2009) The second category is broadcast television content shown on TV. There are various ways to do this, from actual digital broadcast TV tuners built into high-end premium phones like the Nokia N96. Already one in five South Korean phone users has such a digital TV tunerphone on the DMB standard and are able to watch broadcast digital TV on the move. In Japan a rival digital standard 1Seg is on the phones of roughly one in eight Japanese consumers. The television content is also offered on various less sophisticated delivery means ranging from "streaming" TV on 3G and slower networks, to video clip downloads of TV clips. The third related concept is video sharing, similar to YouTube on the internet. Services such as SeeMeTV offer users the chance to upload and download usergenerated video clips and share them. This chapter includes all three forms, and when counted together, they generated 14.0 billion dollars of revenues in 2009. HANDSETS AND NETWORKS The installed base of television and video capable phones worldwide consists still mostly of phones of
99
modest capability with color screens. They phones and their usually "2.5G" network generation are not suited for real time streaming television viewing. Even 3G networks are only moderately well suited for television type of content, but 3G networks do support video sharing well.
Installed Base of Videoclip-Capable Phones

100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 19
Basic phones Color Screen MMS Capable 3G phones
TV, VIDEO AND MOBILE Video clip download, streaming and broadcast TV content are now all available on mobile phones. This
100
industry is at its infancy. Mobile TV is something far more than putting current TV content onto phones much like current TV content and programming is more than just movies from cinema. The world's first broadcast TV content viewable on a mobile phone was launched by broadcast TV channel MainosTV3 in Finland in 2001, by which short clips from TV news were made available for download to phones. TV-mobile convergence appeared also from the direction of broadcast TV which started to experiment with interactivity via the mobile phone, as in 2001 MTV in the UK introduced the world's first interactive TV show, Videoclash which offered viewers the novelty of voting for the next music video by SMS text messaging. Streaming services were launched by Eurotel in Slovakia in 2002 on the GPRS 2.5G network technology. Today streaming TV is widely available around the world on various 3G networks and offer a selection of TV channels similar to the broadcast TV network feeds. But being constrained by cellular technology, there are congestion issues where heavy usage of live TV streaming services will crowd out other cellular telecoms services such as voice calls, text messaging and web browsing. The newest form of mobile TV is digital broadcast television directly to mobile phones and other portable
101
and hand-held devices ranging from laptop PCs to automobiles. The first network went live in 2005 in South Korea on the DMB technology and since then similar but incompatible broadcasts have launched such as 1Seg in Japan, DVB-H in several European and Asian countries and MediaFlo in America.
Mobile TV, Video and TV-interactive Revenues
16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Similar to broadcast TV, this technology allows unlimited number of viewers of a given TV channel, without congestion problems associated with cellular data transmissions, as long as the audience is within reach of a broadcast signal. Pricing on digital broadcast mobile TV is usually either a subscription model or funded by advertising. That is still a small part of the total opportunity and worth 1.8 billion dollars.
102
TV INTERACTIVITY SMS text messaging based voting uses premium cost SMS text messaging for a wide multitude of TV voting shows from the Big Brother house concept to the Pop Idol (such as American Idol) format and various other reality TV shows. Many TV programming producers such as Endemol and Fremantle Media make significant revenues out of SMS participation. During late 2006 and early 2007 various UK television channels were found abusing the SMS voting systems and in 2007 the latest run of X-Factor (the current UK Pop Idol variant) removed SMS voting from its run of the popular series, to considerable financial damage to the TV show. As SMS-to-TV voting took off the providers soon discovered various quiz shows and interactive multiplayer gaming using SMS interactivity. A major provider of SMS-to-TV gaming is Hong Kong based Artificial Life. SMS-to-TV chat is yet another variant of viewer interactivity and all-night chat boards spread rapidly after first launched in Finland. Now variants such as SMS-to-TV dating exist for example in Italy. Some cable TV channels specializing on SMS interactivity earn 80% or more of their revenues this way. Worldwide the total value of mobile interactivity for TV is 5.9 billion dollars and forms nearly half of the total TV related mobile data income. Of global TV industry
103
income, SMS interactivity now accounts for 13% of television industry revenues.
MOBISODES Many industry experts feel that full-length TV viewing is not viable on the small screen of the mobile phone. So many TV producers have been developing custom content aimed solely at the "Fourth Screen" (Cinema, TV and PC screens being the first three). The short, mobile -optimized episodes are designed to be very short in duration, typically 5 minutes in length, and are often produced with the small screen in mind, meaning more close-up scenes, not heavy action and movement of the camera, etc.
104
The mobisodes can be delivered using the MMS platform. Mobisodes include mobile variants to popular TV shows like 24 with Kiefer Sutherland; Mobile preview episodes to soap operas; and mobile-only video shows such as MTV's Head and Body series. Actual viewer preferences indicate that many viewers were comfortable averaging easily 30 minutes or more per viewing session. Korean mobile TV broadcaster Tu Media reported in January 2007 that their average viewing across over 1.5 million viewers was over 60 minutes per day while on Japanese 1Seg technology digital mobile TV broadcasts the average viewing is about 47 minutes per day in 2007. Similarly MTV reported in 2008 about viewing habits and found that its audiences were happy to consume half-hour episodes of MTV shows like Jackass on their phones, as long as the mobile-phone variants of the shows were produced to optimize small-screen viewing situations. Mobile TV has different viewing habits. The evening "prime time" viewing is changed, and mobile TV gains a new peak in viewing around lunch time. Research based on actual mobile TV viewing in South Korea, Japan, Finland and the UK show that between 40% - 50% of all viewing is indoors at the home or the office. In the home mobile TV is watched as the second digital TV set in the bedroom and bathroom, etc. while at the office it is the
105
portable MTV player or CNN viewer at the office, replacing the radio as background noise. USER-GENERATED VIDEO News TV shows now ask viewers to send in pictures and videos such as CNN's iReport. Talk shows and morning TV can send further information back to viewers such as cooking recipes. The mobile phone can offer the viewer the chance to buy the episode. Interactive advertising is being rolled out where viewers can pause a live TV show and get marketing information as well as coupons, testers, web links via the phone. The "Long Tail" of digital content also applies to mobile TV, as mobile networks natively can bill for small value content, very small "mass niche" audiences can be built. Video clips in total generated 6.3 billion dollars in 2009. Video sharing services were popularized by YouTube. The first major mobile-specific video sharing service was SeeMeTV, launched by the Three/Hutchison 3G mobile operators in the UK, Italy, etc. In 2007 Orange France reported that 40% of all 3G data traffic on their network was related to user-generated videos and blogs.
Bonus Page
Chapter 10 - Mobile Gaming
106
X
Mobile Gaming
Interactive, immersive, immediate, impulsive
Gaming is the third major category of mobile content by revenues to pass 10 billion dollars in annual revenues. Gaming is very much considered a niche opportunity where much of the money is generated from among a small subsegment of the total population. These heavy gaming users tend to download many games per year. More casual gaming is gradually gaining acceptance with the mainstream population and the recent innovation of advergaming is now expanding the reach of mobile gaming to new audiences. MOBILE GAMING There are some premium phones that are optimized for gameplay, such as the now defunct Nokia N-Gage series, and the most popular type of content downloads on the Apple Apps Store for the iPhone have been games. Rumors persist of an upcoming Playstation phone by SonyEricsson. Some of the major videogaming houses have found large opportunities in mobile gaming, such as the mobile
107
arm of EA Electronic Arts, which earned 200 million dollars of m-gaming revenues in 2009. Most videogaming on mobile phones, however, are very basic "time-killer" games that come pre-installed on phones, such as the Nokia Snake or Tetris. While not a majority, gaming is a growing minority of all mobile phone owners. 41% of Japanese play videogames on their phones (Japan Mobile Marketing Laboratory 2009) while also 41% of Germans play videogames on their phones (Aenas 2009).
Total Mobile Gamers Globally
600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
The downloadable mobile games market is mostly geared to heavy users of mobile gaming, and serves
108
phones that have good graphics, fast processors and suitable game development and download environments, such as Java, Brew etc. The Apple iPhone and the App Store has opened a big new opportunity for more casual gaming and mobile gaming titles that are more modest in development costs and probably also feature more faddish short-term opportunities. Popular games often related to popular culture hits from TV and the movies such as the mobile quiz around Who Wants to be a Millionaire and the massively multiplayer games such as Disney's Pirates of the Caribbean on mobile phones. A recent milestone was with the mobile version of Tetris, which at 100 million downloads by the end of 2009 had sold nearly three times as many copies as the Nintendo version. GAMING HANDSETS Gaming capable phones came into the market first in Japan on very basic browser phones on the i-Mode service on NTT DoCoMo's network. Soon browser phones also were offered on the rival Japanese networks on KDDI and J-Phone (now Softbank). The South Korean networks introduced browser phones shortly thereafter. Once European networks started to deploy WAP services around 2000-2001, the growth of the browser phone base really took off.
109
A more potent gaming platform is the 2.5G phone and related networks, with higher speeds. These appeared first in South Korea and Japan and started to be rolled out in Western Europe around 2002-2003.
Gaming-Capable Phone Installed Base
100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%
19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09
Non browser Browser (WAP) 2.5G Java/Brew
The basic browser phones and 2.5G phones and networks were capable of only networked gaming. A more powerful ability comes from downloadable games that can be installed to the phones. Initially only smartphones were able to handle installed applications such as games, but the advent of Java and Brew brought about a mass-market opportunity for
110
downloading and installing games and other applications. Today of all the world's phones, over 53% are Java/Brew capable. The Apple iPhone through its App Store introduced a potent new opportunity to sell games to iPhones and the (non-phone) iPod Touch. Games are the best-selling content type of the App Store and I have argued that the iPhone is the first successful 'gaming phone', where NGage failed earlier in this space. GAMING REVENUES
Mobile Gaming Revenues
14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
111
The total mobile gaming revenues have kept growing even as the total gaming user base has stayed modest as a percentage of all mobile phone subscribers. The steady growth in gaming revenues reflects partly a steady growth in total gaming users, but also the growth in gaming titles and more powerful phones that are capable of more advanced mobile games. ASIA FOCUS
Gaming Revenues Regionally 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
es t in g st ed st an ad a a Ea nc W op Ea ric Af Am tin La
ro pe
va
ve l
pe
Eu ro
Eu
de
&
SA
AC
The number of mobile gaming users grew gradually through the early parts of this decade as gamingcapable phones were initially only offered in Japan and
AP
As i
id dl
ad
er
ic
112
South Korea. As the phone population evolved, the gaming user base also grew and after 2004 the world had passed 100 million paying users of mobile gaming. The vast majority of mobile gaming revenues come from two countries, Japan and South Korea. These two countries have delivered half of the total global gaming revenues up to 2007 and still account for a large fraction of the total mobile gaming revenues. Now some other advanced Asian "Tiger Economy" countries are delivering significant mobile gaming revenues as well, lead by Taiwan. European and US mobile gaming also grows in relevance, but the biggest rival to Japan's and South Korea's dominance in mobile gaming is China which alone delivered more than a billion dollars of mobile gaming income in 2008. The majority of gaming consumption tends to be centered around high-user gamers, who buy many games per year and tend to play many games on consoles, personal computers and over the internet. This heavy user gamer segment is not very large but they are willing to pay a lot to feed their gaming habits. A particularly promising area of new mobile gaming growth is in advergaming.
Chapter 11 - Mobile Social Networking
113
XI
Mobile Social Networking
Understanding the landscape
Digital Communities on Mobile Phones also known as "Mobile Social Networking", "Mobile Web 2.0" and closely related "Wireless User-Generated Content", "Citizen Journalism" and "Moblogging" (Mobile Blogging) are radically new forms of digital community collaboration, using mobile phones either exclusively on mobile networks, or in conjunction with another media such as online broadband internet, TV, videogaming etc. Similar to recent internet social networking success such as MySpace, Facebook, YouTube, Flickr, Wikipedia, Skype, Second Life and World of Warcraft; the newer mobile community services were launched only in 2003 and are growing faster and already deliver more revenues than their online cousins. Mobile Social Networking became the fastest-ever billion-dollarbusiness, passing that level of annual sales in just two years. In 2009 it became the fastest-ever ten billion dollar industry earning 10.3 billion dollars. The growth is very strong with mobile communities. Today over 174 million people worldwide use social
114
networking services on mobile phones. The ability to charge has even been used by online (internet) digital communities as the mechanism to generate user revenues which was pioneered by Habbo Hotel, the teenager virtual world ("Second Life for children") from Finland which has spread already to over 30 countries. Habbo customers - teenagers without credit - buy Habbo virtual currency with their phones using premium SMS. Habbo Hotel (and its owner Sulake of Finland) earn 50 million dollars annually, making a 10% gross profit.
Mobile Social Networking Users
200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Other mobile social networking services from Cyworld in South Korea to Flirtomatic in the UK have adopted this payment mechanism to use mobile to take payments on
115
a converged service on both mobile and web. Similar features are on many other online social networks from Itsmy out of Germany to the MTV related mobile social networks ranging from Italy to Japan.
Mobile Social Networking Revenues
12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
In Japan recently the three mobile social networks, Mixi, Mobagetown and Gree have each between 10 and 20 million subscribers, earn between 200 and 400 million dollars annually, and are not only reporting profits - all three are listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Each makes its money primarily on the virtual goods, gifts and personalization, where subscriptions and advertising form a minority income level.
116
DEGREES OF MOBILITY IN SOCIAL NETWORKS
The easiest way to enter the mobile social networking, is to build mobile links to existing online communities such as mobile alerts. The Volvo Round-the-world Sailing team game, for example, offers real time wind changes via premium SMS. "Mobile modules" can be added to online games, such as the ability to "train" or build your gaming character on your mobile phone or phone identities to online games like BotFighter from Sweden. A harder but potentially more lucrative opportunity is to build a mobile variant of an online community. The next
117
stage is to port an existing web concept and launch it onto mobile. These include the mobile versions of dating services, auction sites and mobile variants of multiplayer games. When porting an online community to mobile, new opportunities emerge, such as the example of SeeMeTV, a video sharing service for mobile not unlike YouTube, MSN Video and Google Video. But in SeeMeTV, each original video creator is paid every time his/her video is viewed. In its first six months SeeMeTV in the UK had paid out 100,000 UKP to its members for "royalties" on other members viewing their videos. Today the average video that is uploaded by a member of SeeMeTV will earn 12 UK Pounds (15 Euros, 18 USD) per video, as royalties when other members view it. Note this is not a "hit" video of exceptional popularity, it is the average video uploaded to SeeMeTV. By just uploading two average videos, a SeeMeTV user would earn enough to get free calls and text messages for a month, at UK price levels. The most difficult but also the option with the greatest upside potential is to develop an original mobile community concept. Creatively most challenging, but potentially the most lucrative opportunity arises from original communities delivered primarily (but not necessarily exclusively) on the mobile phone.
118
Mobile Social Networking by Regional Revenues

7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
lo pi ng ed an ad a Ea st st W es a ad va nc Af ric id dl e Am er ic Ea a t ro pe
de ve
&
op e
U SA
For example the pop bands tend to set up their fan clubs on mobile following the innovation of Hong Kong youth duo Twins. Countless pop, rock and rap bands have launched fan clubs around mobile phones with newsletters, fan chat, music reviews, exclusive tickets; as well as ringing tones, cuts from albums, screen savers etc. More advanced variants include US dance artist Rihanna offering the ability to isolate dancers from her music video and learn the dance moves; Britney Spears letting fans insert themselves into her video to dance with her; UK trio Sugababes inviting fans to send dance moves via video: best to be used by Sugababes
AP
As
La tin
Eu r
Eu
AC
ia
119
onstage; and UK dance label Ministry of Sound inviting fans to submit user-generated music videos for their latest hits. Meanwhile sports oriented fan clubs are equally a lucrative opportunity, as Real Madrid reported in January 2010 that their 100,000 mobile fan club members generate 18 million dollars of annual revenues on fan services on their phones. In Japan Mobagetown allows users to create mobile stories, a kind of half-way-house between blogs on mobile, and actual mobile phone based books. RULES OF THUMB TomiAhonen Consulting has been tracking the usage and found a reasonably consistent Rule-of-Thumb for content creation and usage ratios, both for online and for mobile. On the internet where all user-generated content tends to be free, a rule of thumb says the ratio of usergenerated content to that content being shared, is about 1:1000. On mobile phones with charged content, first cases the rate is 1:100. This impacts on the business models and user charges on mobile social networking.
Advertisement
Bonus Page

Tomi T Ahonen has released an eBook with 50 case studies of the best examples of mobile social networking. "Tomi Ahonen's Pearls Vol 2: Mobile Social Networking." The eBook is 171 pages in length, covers all major areas of digital communities, mobile web 2.0, user-generated content as are currently counted to include in mobile social networking. The eBook includes major global innovators such as Habbo Hotel, Flirtomatic, Cyworld, Mogi, Mobage Town and Mixi. It has a Foreword by Flirtomatic CEO Mark Curtis, author of Distraction: Being Human ia Digital Age. The cost for eBook is only 9.99 Euros. See sample pages including several of the case studies at
www.tomiahonen.com
(this advertisement is not counted in the 180 pages...)
Chapter 12 - Other Mobile Content
120
XII
Other Mobile Content Types
News, Jokes, Adult, Location-Based, etc
There are many other areas of mobile content and services. This is a brief look into several of the other media content types. MOBILE NEWS The first mobile news service on SMS was launched by Finnish newspaper Aamulehti in 1996. Browser-based mobile phone news services were introduced on NTT DoCoMo's i-Mode service in 1999 where CNN was the first global news brand to launch a mobile news service as a subscription service. The first news provider to offer free news headlines on mobile was MainosTV3 in Finland with advertisingsponsored news headline service on SMS in 2000. By the time WAP services became possible in Europe, various major news services joined into mobile news. For example the Financial Times launched their mobile news in 2001 on WAP.
121
Basic mobile news services were mostly basic web page (WAP) and SMS text messaging based offers at the start. As video capable phones appeared in 2001, first mobile video clips, as excerpts from the nightly news were introduced, with Finnish MainosTV3 offering the first video clip highlights form their nightly news in the late spring of 2001.
Consumers of Mobile News
1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Today it may come as a shock to many newsmedia executives to find that there are well in excess of twice as many people who subscribe to mobile phone based news - 1.1 billion people - the total circulation of all daily
122
newspapers at 470 million worldwide. Just in China, SMS and MMS based branded headline news services have 40 million paying customers (Morgan Stanley 2009) and in many Asian countries from the Philippines to Thailand 3 in 10 phone owners consume news on the phone (Asia Digital Marketing Yearbook 2007). In the UK already 55% of mobile phone owners consume news and information services (Aenas 2009). Most major global news services have mobile variants and services. CNN reports that its i-Report service has had over half a million videos and pictures submitted to it from all over the world. More advanced services are being introduced such as NTT DoCoMo's i-Channel, launched in 2005. It uses the idle screen of the phone to deliver "24 hour news ticker" style news. These are more useful to end-users being able to be personalized, something that cable/satellite 24 hour news TV cannot do. JOKES, CARTOONS, BOOKS Jokes are a popular category of basic SMS based services in most markets, as a minor content category and worth about two billion dollars in annual revenues. Cartoons have mostly not been a big success outside of Japan where the Manga comic book styles seem to fit the local culture and the strong mobile books publishing industry, as well as a long history of advanced color
123
screen phones, particularly well. Cartoons are an industry sector that many expect will grow strong, once cartoonists discover the opportunity. Meanwhile mobile books - eBooks formated for mobile phone screens and sold and downloaded directly to phones have exploded in Japan to becoming nearly a half billion dollar industry already (Impress R&D 2009) and a quarter of Japanese phone users have paid to read m-books, m-dictionaries or manga comics on their phones (Japan Mobile Marketing Laboratory 2009) LOCATION-BASED SERVICES The single most spectacular failure in the group of mobile services and applications is the category of Location-Based Services (LBS). The category is as old as mobile content, conceptually, and commercial launches have been seen in advanced markets from Japan to Italy to Finland to Germany since 2000. Inspite of almost every conceivable LBS type of service having launched, the mass-market success of LBS is elusive. Some niche-target services have succeeded, mostly in the enterprise/business sector, and in the parcels delivery, vehicles fleet management and such movement-control related industries. Mapping and guidance such as TomTom and various automobile vehicle control, security, tracking and safety services like
124
OnStar have been successful, but no mass market success of LBS has been achieved. After the iPhone added GPS to its abilities, LBS has experienced a new revival of passion and experimentation on this barren opportunity. The total revenues of LBS worldwide are worth about a billion dollars. ADULT ENTERTAINMENT The first content category for essentially every mass media ever invented, tends to be adult entertainment. Mobile is a rare exception, that ringing tones actually invented the media opportunity, but within months of that launch, the first adult premium content services emerged on mobile.
Adult Entertainment, as percent of all mobile content
100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2008
125
This sector is a significant niche market worth 5.1 billion dollars in 2008 but one that is usually under the radar of most analysis and reports of the mobile industry. While representing only 5% of the mobile content revenues today, the best indication of the role of adult entertainment on mobile, is to look at the proportion of its contribution over time. Generally media analysts suggest that the higher the role of adult entertainment out of the total media opportunity, the less mature that mass media industry is. On mobile currently, adult entertainment is only the seventh largest content category group, with a gradually declining contribution to the total industry, suggesting that mobile is maturing far more rapidly than for example the legacy PC based internet where adult entertainment still delivers the largest slice of content revenues. Gambling and betting is also available on mobile phones. A minor content category, gambling and betting deliver 2.9 billion dollars of annual revenues. The users of gambling and betting tend to be a small niche group of users, who then generate a lot of transactions and revenues. OTHER SERVICES Early popular content type was picture downloads as first logos then screen savers. This early staple of
126
mobile content which once delivered 25% of the content industry for mobile, is now subsiding and worth only 3%. Still that translates into 2.9 billion dollars annually. Education services are growing very popular in many Asian markets, such as South Korea, Japan, China etc, where the mobile phone is proving a powerful tool to help with language training, and other services such as mathematics tutorials etc. As the broadcast digital TV spreads, one of the early successes on that in the advanced markets is mobile education. For example Bangladesh found 400,000 paying users within a month of a new mobile phone based English language course being launched (Financial Times 13 Nov 2009). The total value of mobile education services is 3.8 billion dollars. Search services also are on mobile and growing strongly from a small base. Search on mobile was worth 3.2 billion dollars in 2009. A multitude of ever smaller niche services and concepts also exist relating to mobile content, too many to mention from the mobile books and movies, to sports services, virtual reality services, augmented reality services, etc. Separately there are mobile commerce, banking and credit card services, and telematics and other noncontent services, which will be discussed in their own chapter later in this Almanac.
127
APPLICATION SALES A long-nascent niche category of mobile apps has suddenly reached fever-pitch hysteria as the Apple iPhone App Store reported 3 billion downloads in its first year and a half of operation.
Smartphone Application Market Revenues by Type
6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Business apps Consumer apps
Mobile phone app sales were not actually invented by Apple. NTT DoCoMo was the first mobile company to offer apps to download and purchase, as part of their iAppli store from 2001. Nokia set up the first dedicated smartphone apps store for the N-Gage phone platform, which was later closed with the termination of the NGage line of gaming phones. But even before 'Apps Stores', smartphone applications were sold in particular for business-oriented phones, until Apple's iPhone App Store suddenly re-invigorated the apps space.
128
While Apple App Store download statistics have gained enormous media attention, hype and even hysteria, several facts need to be kept in mind. First, that Apple's Apps tend to be aimed at consumers. As early smartphones were sold mostly to business/enterprise customers prior to the advent of the Nokia N-Series and Apple's iPhone, a far more established and much larger market exists for apps sold to business/enterprise customers. These generally are 'beyond' the scope and scale of the Apple App Store.
Distribution of Mobile Data Revenue by Type
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Mobile Messaging VAS Services Applications
At the Apple iPhone App Store, most downloads are free apps. Out of paid apps, the majority are games. And the second most common category of paid downloads from the App Store, after games, are eBooks/mBooks. Of the
129
remainder, one needs to remember that most paid apps sold on the App Store are priced at the 99 cent level. It has been widely reported that very few app developers are making profits out of Apple iPhone App Store sales of apps. The total market for all smartphone apps, not just appstore apps, is about 5 Billion dollars globally. The majority of these apps in 2009 were business/enterprise -oriented applications. The consumer-oriented 'App Store' type of downloaded paid apps including games were worth less than one Billion dollars in 2009. Morgan Stanley reported that Apple's App Store total sales in 2009 were valued at 723 million dollars worldwide. The other apps stores like Nokia's Ovi, the Google Android app store etc all produce tiny numbers in consumer sales when compared with Apple's store currently. Meanwhile the proportion of total apps revenues has remained consistent as a tiny sliver of the total market. Mobile messaging and increasingly mobile VAS nonmessaging data services are a far bigger economic opportunity than all apps of any kind for smartphones.
Chapter 13 - Mobile Advertising and Marketing
130
XIII
Mobile Advertising and Marketing
Natural medium for engagement marketing
Admob became an instant mobile news story in 2009 when Google bought it. Admob was the biggest of the mobile ad platforms and was delivering over 11 Billion ads to mobile phones every month worldwide. Bear in mind, that while largest, Admob is only one of the suppliers of advertising on mobile and they only operate in a small portion of all countries of the world. Several countries have mobile ad networks that serve that country like US based Quattro. Other international ad platforms also exist like Malaysia-based Buzz City which delivers about 2 billion ads per month with a strongly Asian footprint. Advertising is spreading rapidly on mobile. Already in many markets more than half of consumers receive ads on mobile. 55% of Japanese, 60% of French and 75% of Spanish phone owners already receive ads. National incumbents set up mobile advertising companies such as NTT DoCoMo with D2C in Japan and SK Telecoms with Aircross in South Korea. Mobile advertising grew dramatically in the economic downturn when all other ad media lost revenues. Now worth 5.9 Billion dollars,
131
mobile advertising grew an incredible 85% in revenues over the past 12 months. The first mobile advertising was an ad-sponsored news headline service in Finland, based on SMS text messaging in 2000. The first conference to discuss mobile marketing and advertising was held in London in February 2001 and the first book to feature mobile advertising was Tomi Ahonen's second book M-Profits in 2002.
People Receiving Mobile Advertising
2 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Globally, with 1.8 billion people having received at least one advertisement on their mobile phone, mobile reaches a bigger number of devices than all TVs in use,
132
and nearly 4 times the number of worldwide newspaper circulations. CONSUMERS OF ADS Young people like mobile ads. The mobile phone is the communication and media device of choice for the youth. They also are quite familiar with ads on the device. A survey of UK youth by Q Research in 2007 found that if asked whether they would like ads on their phones, only 32% said yes. But in the same survey, if the youth were offered targeted ads, that acceptance level jumped to 71%. Furthermore, if given coupons and discounts the preference climbed to 76%, and if mobile advertising would allow top-ups of prepaid accounts, 82% would say yes. Mobile advertising is more accurate and more effective. AMF Ventures found in 2007 that on TV only 1% of total audience data is collected. On the internet about 10% of total audience is known. But on mobile, 90% of the total audience data is collected. M:Metrics in February 2008 reported of UK effectiveness of campaigns on the internet and mobile. In all cases mobile was more effective, in typical ranges of mobile 38% more effective than web ads in selecting credit cards; 54% more effective in selecting a TV set; 41% more effective in selecting a car.
133
TYPES OF MOBILE ADVERTISING Early mobile ads were copies of legacy media. WAP banner ads are adaptations of web banner ads which are copies of newspaper and magazine ads; spam SMS grew from junk mail and internet email. Pre-roll video is a linear interruptive format similar to the ad breaks on television.
Mobile Advertising Revenues Globally
7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Typical mobile campaigns include contests. A USA based car-customizing body shop, West Coast Customs, ran a campaign on the youth-oriented Boost Mobile network, awarding a "pimped-out" car worth 40,000 dollars to the winner. The campaign generated 1.5 million response SMS text messages and a response rate of 39%. Free sample offers are another
134
staple of mobile ad campaigns. South Korea's Aircross reports of a Gillette campaign in 2007 with free samples that generated a response rate of 98% for a campaign of 240,000 profiled customers. ENGAGEMENT MARKETING Alan Moore coined the term Engagement Marketing and this was explained first in the book Communities Dominate Brands (Ahonen & Moore, 2005). Mobile is emerging as a potent platform for engagement marketing and many engagement propositions have been launched on mobile. Advergaming is more engaging. Advergaming is the merger of advertising with videogaming. One of the world's first such campaigns was simple puzzle game in India in 2005 to promote the launch of the Bollywood movie Jurm. More modern advergaming concepts include the Puma sponsored multiplayer Formula One racing game at the Shanghai 2008 F1 race which allowed four friends to race each other in real time on phones. Advergaming is a growth opportunity both for mobile gaming and for mobile advertising. BETTER MOBILE VERSIONS A good example of how much more powerful mobile can be than legacy ads, is Otetsudai Networks in Japan.
135
They have taken the temporary work job offers "help wanted" type of "classified advertising" from newspapers (cleaning help, dishwashing help, construction labor, etc) and created a far better system on mobile. The principle is combining help wanted ads, with personal profiles, with location-based information. It features pricing/bidding models such as those on Ebay. A somewhat similar solution to help jobs find workers on a simper technology without the location information, using SMS, WAP and IVR was launched by Babajobs in Bengaluru India and won a MoMo global award in 2009.
Flirtomatic has adapted Google Adwords concept to mobile. Flirtomatic the UK dating/flirting service offers its members the chance to have their personal ad as the "First Face" seen whenever users log onto Flirtomatic.
136
As only one Flirtomatic member can be the First Face, Flirtomatic offers the First Face slot by auction. The cost was 8 UKP (12 Euro/16 USD) per 6 hour slot, in mid 2007. This is new, interactive and user-generated (even user-priced) advertising, for mobile. POWER OF VIRAL The real power is viral marketing, where a given user will forward the ad, or web link or other element of the campaign, to other mobile phone users. Mobile guru Rudy de Waele says that businesses in the digital space should "think global, act viral." The power of viral marketing is illustrated by the findings by Forrester in 2006 that 64% of consumers are willing to try something, that was recommended by a friend; and 69% of consumers will forward something to a friend that they like. In fact on mobile, they will typically forward it to between 2 and 6 people. Mike Beeston CEO of UK based Fjord says mobile campaigns should be "sufficiently contageous." The CEO of UK based engagement marketing agency SMLXL, Alan Moore says "Raw data has no value; social marketing intelligence is the black gold of the 21st century." The concept of the Alpha User is the first actionable new marketing concept to offer more accurate targeting than the traditional Early Adopter classification. Alpha Users
137
were first discussed by Ahonen, Kasper and Melkko in their book 3G Marketing in 2004. The Alpha User, a customer of exceptional influence with peers, was isolated by the Finnish Social Marketing Intelligence technology specialist firm Xtract, which measures that for typical social network ("community") within a mobile network, approximately 2% of its members are Alpha Users, who know personally 58% of the total population of the given community. Only mobile as a mass media can give access to Alpha users. MARKETING BEYOND ADVERTISING Mobile marketing can go far beyond just advertising into Customer Relationship Management. Finnish libraries send book return notices on SMS, that users can also renew the book via return SMS without having to visit the library; the city of Lahti in Finland introduced the world's first queue-busting mobile service, the cancelled dentist appointments re-scheduler, just-in-time dentist, by which anyone needing urgent dental care, could sign up for SMS alerts to take any appointment that was cancelled by some other dental patient. Finnair was the world's first airline to offer SMS based mobile check-in in 2001 and today reports that more than half of its passengers on busy business-travel routes already use the mobile check-in. Helsinki area taxis can now be booked with SMS. Even intelligent
138
medical bottles such as Medixine will send an alert if grandfather forgot to take his pill this afternoon, etc. USER CO-CREATED ADVERTISING UK based Blyk brought the "web 2.0" innovation of usergenerated content (blogs, Flickr pictures, YouTube videos etc, citizen journalism) to advertising. How does it work? The young consumer is encouraged to respond to ads and tell the brand more about personal preferences. The system automatically rewards the youth for being truthful. So a brand may ask which supermodel is favored by a teen. After answering honestly, that girl will then receive her advertising from that brand, personalized so that it features her favorite supermodel. Same can be done with her colors, her music, her fashion styles, etc. Every time she gives more information to the advertiser, the advertiser learns more to personalize the offering. This creates a transition in the content, where the content is no longer seen as intrusive advertising, but as valuable content. The concept is so powerful, that the biggest complaint by members of Blyk was that they wanted more of the ads. Major brands such as Coca Cola, Adidas and L'Oreal were running dozens of engagement marketing campaigns on Blyk and raving about this innovation of user co-created advertising.
Advertisement
Bonus Page

Tomi T Ahonen has released an eBook with 50 case studies of the best examples of mobile advertising and marketing from 19 countries. "Tomi Ahonen's Pearls Vol 1: Mobile Advertising." The eBook is 171 pages in length, covers all major areas of mobile advertising and marketing including banner ads, location-based advertising, viral, advergaming, engagement marketing and augmented reality. It includes the major global innovators such as Admob and Blyk, and the most innovative recent campaigns such as Northwest Airlines travel puzzles, BMW winter tyres MMS campaign, Puma multiplayer racing, Flirtomatic First Face etc. It has a Foreword by Mobile Marketing Association Chairman Russell Buckley. The cost for eBook is only 9.99 Euros. See sample pages including several of the case studies at
www.tomiahonen.com
Chapter 14 - Voice Calls
139
XIV
Voice calls
Still the elephant in the room
This chapter is deliberately towards the back of the Almanac, even though voice calls form 60% of all mobile telecoms industry revenues and 70% of all mobile service revenues. Voice calls are a well established, relatively stable part of the mobile opportunity.
Global Mobile Voice Revenues Annually
1000 800 600 400 200 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Voice calls generate about 615 billion dollars of revenues annually. The revenues of mobile voice keep
140
on growing every year, grew through this economic downturn and grew also during the previous economic downturn of 2001-2002. It is a healthy robust part of mobile telecoms and sustains profit margins globally in the 25%-30% range (when measured as EBITDA margins). HOW LONG WILL VOICE DOMINATE? The mobile phone or the cellular phone, incorporates the abbreviation of an older word, the telephone. Telephone comes from the Greek and means "distance" (tele) and "sound" (phone). The original telephone was a long distance voice system, a talking device for long distance. It is quite normal for most to think, that the "natural" ability of any phone, including any mobile phone, is voice communiciation. It has been, after all, that way for more than one hundred years with the fixed landline telephone service. That is now changing, and a clear-cut distinction of "real experts" in mobile telephony in contrast with any claimed expert who may come from the fixed landline side, or the internet side, or any laggard mobile market like the USA, is how they answer the question, what is the primary use of a mobile phone. If they say, "but of course, it is voice calls" then that person does not understand mobile. As we showed in the SMS text messaging chapter,
141
today the primary use of a mobile phone is shifting to messaging on mobile, away from voice calls.
Active Users of Outbound Voice Calls
100 80 60 40 20 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
The more startling evidence is how many mobile phone subscribers never initiate voice calls on their phone. In most cases these are poor people who cannot afford to place voice calls, who are willing to accept calls from wealthier relatives, a very common phenomenon in the Developing World. In India 30% of all mobile phone subscribers do not initiate voice calls at all. In South Africa a new free service has been introduced to capitalize on this human need. The 'Call Me' service is sponsored by advertising and allows anyone with a valid phone to send a free SMS text message to a friend or relative asking them to call. The advertiser pays for the message, the person receiving the message usually
142
is close to the sender and is willing to pay for the call, resulting in more traffic. Everyone wins. Three relevant factors contribute to the trend away from voice calls trend. Some users, mostly young "Generation C" for Community Generation, under 30 year old users in developed mobile markets, prefer SMS text messaging so much, they have stopped placing voice calls altogether. This is a small minority of all subscribers, but a growing part. Their preference for all outbound and inbound communications is to use text messaging based communication. For them a phone with a broken microphone or speaker, is not broken, as long as the display and text entry still function on the device. A second new development is the data-only mobile subscription. Most typically this is the data card modem or dongle, used to connect a laptop PC to the internet via mobile broadband speeds. These customers will not place traditional voice calls at all onto the network. There are also many who have a smartphone or 3G phone that is configured to work this way, as only a data access device, in effect a moving modem for the laptop or PDA or other data device. The third development is an effect of multiple phone ownership. If a user has two phones, on two networks, and one network offers a great bargain on voice calls
143
(free minutes to all networks, etc) and the other has a great data package, this one user can optimize the traffic so, that one mobile phone is used for voice, and one is used for data. This produces subscribers who do use a mobile phone (on one network) for data-only, while using the alternate phone on another network for voice calls (and usually also other data like SMS text messaging as well). TomiAhonen Consulting has been tracking this development of users who have abandoned outbound voice calls and finds that globally the level has now passed 11% of all subscribers. As this trend continues, the time will come when more users will be active users of SMS text messaging on a mobile phone than the number of active users of outbound voice calls on a mobile phone. It will become a valid point then to consider what to call the device, if it is no longer primarily even used to place voice calls. Even that is a long way from all voice calls disappearing, as most who don't place voice calls, still agree to receive them on the phone from time to time.
Chapter 15 - Business/Enterprise
144
XV
Business/Enterprise Services
Not a vanishing segment
At the start of mobile telecoms the cellular phone was seen as a productivity tool for busy businessmen in cities, often used as a carphone. The perception lasted well into this decade with many business and enterprise oriented services developed, most obviously the Blackberry wireless email system for business/ enterprise use, and the push-to-talk service that propelled Nextel to its success in the USA. The overall balance of customers shifted during the 1990s and now the vast majority of all mobile phone customers are residential customers. The total industry revenues, and the various service and application opportunities, as well as handset types etc, are now predominantly sold to consumers. This does not mean that there is not a market for the business/enterprise segment. It is vast, counted in the hundreds of millions of subscribers worldwide, who also deliver a disproportionately large amount of traffic and revenue per business/enterprise phone subscription. Still, the balance of the industry has shifted so much,
145
that business customers reflect a tiny fraction of the total customer base.
Enterprise Customers out of All Subscribers 5 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
There are significant revenue sources out of corporate/enterprise/business applications. The vast majority of enterprise/business mobile telecoms revenues comes out of voice calls, as phone users who have employer-provided phones, and whose employers pay for the voice calls, will tend to put far longer duration voice calls to the network. They also produce a disproportionately large amount of the total international roaming voice calls on mobile networks. Roughly speaking the 12% of enterprise/corporate business customers generate about 24% of the total industry
146
income, and on many networks in Industrialized World markets the business customer segment can deliver 40% of total revenues. There is also a growth opportunity in new data services for business/enterprise customers, in particular modem data cards and dongles for laptop internet access; automation and telematics systems; CRM systems, etc. It should be noted that most mobile telecoms services and products also serve, and are used by business/enterprise customers. Voice calls are used by business as well as residential customers. So too are SMS text messages. News services have strong business appeal as do mobile search. Even advertising serves a business-to-business (B2B) need, and for example Vodafone in the Netherlands offers B2B advertising for example in the insurance and pharmaceuticals industries. Services in the enterprise/business segment tend to be highly specialized and industry-specific. So for example a service might be tightly tailored for the healthcare industry or for fleet management or for utilities employees field work. In Finland with a major lumber industry, there are tree management systems that log every individual tree electronically, with GPS and GSM modules, to enable intelligent forestry management.
Chapter 16 - Other mobile data
147
XVI
Other mobile data
Mobile commerce, telematics etc
There are still several other areas of services on mobile. This is a quick look at mobile commerce, banking and credit cards; telematics; accessories; and miscellaneous other categories. Mobile commerce is a promising future opportunity for mobile. There are hundreds of millions of consumers who make payments on mobile phones. Mobile banking accounts form 49% of all bank accounts in Kenya. In the Philippines most mobile phone users already make payments on mobile phones, as do customers in South Korea and Japan. 50% of travellers on some business travel routes on Finnair now use mobile phone check in, mostly with SMS. 56% of single tickets sold in Helsinki public transportation sold via mobile and delivered by SMS. In Estonia 100% of parking payments is handled through SMS. Yet these are exceptional countries. In most markets mobile payments are only an emerging part. This is also true of major mobile banking solutions and mobile phone based credit cards. These services exist, but are a small
Chapter 16 - Other mobile data
148
part of the big picture. Still there is great growth in the opportunity. Juniper reported that 2 Billion mobile tickets will be sold in 2010 to various tickets-oriented consumer activities from bus tickets to concerts to movies. Telematics is another area that has tight niche opportunities in remote control and remote metering as well as various systems for cars and fleet management. This is a small niche market but for their respected industries, an important evolving opportunity. In some countries like Sweden 20% of all mobile subscriptions are already used for such telematics applications. Accessories and customization of mobile phones is another significant niche market. Phone faceplates, phone carrying pouches and transparent plastic covers to protect the phones are a billion dollar industry by themselves. In Asia it is popular for the youth to hang little teddybears and small toys to the phones, and these form a little industry. In Japan it is common to decorate phones with custom stickers. All these are valid opportunities but disappear in the rounding off error in the scale of the total industry. The total value of the accessories after-market is 40 billion dollars (ABI Research 2009) including bluetooth earphones, spare batteries, carrying cases, memory expansion cards etc.
Chapter 17 - Infrastructure
149
XVII
Infrastructure
Networks
The infrastructure sector of the mobile industry is worth about 45 billion dollars annually. It is mostly hidden when analysts look at the industry, yet hidden in the numbers is the world's largest infrastructure investment of all time, when 3G networks were rolled out in this decade at the cost of 300 billion dollars worldwide. About 100 billion of that was license fees for 3G licenses and nearly 200 billion were network installation and upgrade costs. The big 3G investment opportunity has now passed with most major Industrialized World countries having well deployed 3G networks but still some have not deployed, such as Turkey. Many parts of the Developing World have not yet deployed 3G, such as China. These will still support major expenditures in the 3G evolution of mobile network deployments. A new opportunity is emerging with 4G. That is not to be confused with the hype around WiMax where many WiMax providers misleadingly call their technology 4G. That is not what is consistent with international
150
standardization, and is self-serving. In fact WiMax is specified as a 3G telecoms network interface, by the ITU, the International Telecommunications Union, so if the technology is 3G, it cannot simultaneously also be 4G.
Mobile Subscribers by Network Generation
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
3G 2.5G 2G 1G
The fourth generation cellular networks will be commercially developed after the 4G standardization work has been completed. That is expected to happen over the next few years, and the first, ITU-compliant, but pre-standard "true" 4G networks are likely to be deployed commercially around 2012. Probably the first countries to do so, will be Japan and South Korea. But
151
that development will involve massive re-investment into the infrastructure of cellular telecoms and that capacity is already strongly desired in some of the most advanced markets, where the 3G technology is starting to witness capacity bottlenecks. As a comment, currently the big network providers in the cellular telecoms space are LM Ericsson and NokiaSiemens Networks, with Huawei, Alcatel-Lucent, Nortel, Motorola and NEC also significant supplier. Many supporting players offer elements to the infrastructure ranging from Gemalto which makes SIM cards, to Amdocs making billing systems to Comverse making messaging platforms and Buongiorno making mobile service applications etc. Note that at the back of this Almanac in the Tables section, there is a listing of the 25 most advanced countries by 3G penetration rate.
Chapter 13 - Digital Divide
152
XVIII
The Digital Divide
Emerging World not like Industrialized World
This chapter examines the Digital Divide briefly relating to major mass media technologies, and then in further detail at some major categories of mobile statistics from the angle of the Digital Divide. Mobile phones (cellular phones) were conceived as business tools used by wealthy bankers, executives and government officials in the richest cities of the Industrialized World, and launched first commercially in Tokyo Japan in 1979. Gradually phones spread to all sectors of the public, beyond the cities, even the youth adopted mobile phones. But most of the Emerging World did not benefit from mobile phones for the first two decades of the industry in the 1980s and 1990s. During the past decade of mobile phones, however, the Emerging World has rapidly taken to phones. At the start of 2009, three out of every four mobile phone subscriptions were in the Developing World and today most of the industry growth is in Africa, Latin America and Asia. India alone adds 20 million new subscribers
153
every month, which is about the size of the total population of Portugal or Taiwan or the State of Texas. TECHNOLOGY PENETRATION RATES
Digital Divide - per capita

Industrialized World Population 1.2 Billion Households 450 million Mobile subscriptions 1.6 Billion (133%) FM radio receivers 2.7 Billion (225%) Banking account holders 950 million (79%) Televisions 950 million (79%) PCs incl laptops/netbooks 700 million (57%) PC web users home/office 650 million (54%) Internet cafe users 50 million (4%) Mobile Internet users 525 million (43%) Landline phones 725 million (60%) Automobiles 600 million (50%)
Emerging World 5.6 Billion 1.25 Billion 3.0 Billion (56%) 1.2 Billion (21%) 1.2 Billion (21%) 650 million (12%) 500 million (9%) 350 million (6%) 150 million (3%) 775 million (14%) 425 million (8%) 320 million (6%)
Let start with the big picture in the Industrialized World. The planet has a population of 6.8 Billion people. Only about 1.2 billion live in the Industrialized World of Europe, USA and Canada, Japan, Australia and New Zealand, and a few advanced smaller Asian countries like Singapore, Hong Kong and South Korea. When
154
considering these markets from an ICT viewpoint, they are typified by ubiquitous overlapping networks - all households have access to fixed landline phones, and all reading-age residents have access to personal mobile phones. The penetration of radios and mobile phones exceeds the total human penetration in these advanced countries. Most families have access to televisions and computers. Most homes have internet access, which for more than half is now broadband. The ICT infrastructure technologies are also ubiquitous and reliable, from access to reliable electricity to banking services. Finland became the first country to guarantee broadband internet access as a legal right to its citizens. The Emerging World has none of that. There are not TV sets in every home, it is a 'wealthy' home that has a television. In poorer parts of Africa for example, many homes do no have even basic FM radio receivers. Telephones are not landline-based, landline phones are few, expensive and unreliable. If a citizen has a phone, in 9 times out of 10, it will be a mobile phone. The penetration rate of personal computers is modest, the availability of the internet is patchy in dial-up, and almost non-existent in fixed broadband. The ratio of internet access from mobile exceeds landline internet access in South Africa by 5 to 1 (Vodacom 2009). The
155
poorer the nation, the greater the proportion is of mobile access, in countries like Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, the ratio of mobile access to basic web services, using WAP technologies, compared to PC based access to the web, is 10 to 1. Similarly there is a lack of banking services for the masses, and in many countries, even basic electricity is not available on a reliable basis. MOBILE PENETRATION RATES. While in the West the penetration rate of mobile phones far exceeds the human population - in Europe there are 1.5 mobile phones for every man woman and child alive - the recent dramatic growth has been in the Developing World. Ukraine has achieved 140% penetration rate per capita. Russia is at 130%, Chile is almost at 120%, Argentina at 110%, South Africa, Malaysia, Thailand are at 100%. However, national wealth per capita plays a major part in the statistics. Vietnam is at 70% penetration rate. Egypt and Indonesia are past 60% and China is nearing that level. India is nearing 50%, while Nigeria is at 40%, Bangladesh is at 30% the Democratic Republic of Congo is at 15% while Ethiopia is at 3%. Currently the Industrialized World average penetration rate (by total subscriptions, including multiple subscriptions) is 133%, the total World average is 68%, and the Developing World average is 58%. Still, at 58% as an average, that
156
means that every economically viable person in the Developing World has a mobile phone. If they can afford a cup of coffee or a newspaper, they will have a phone, on average.
Digital Divide - Handsets

Industrialized World Population 1.2 Billion Mobile subscriptions 1.6 Billion (133%) Unique subscribers 1.1 Billion (89%) Total mobile phones 1.3 Billion (108%) Cameraphones 1.1 Billion (94%) is pct of all phones 85% are camphones 3G subscriptions 525 million (44%) is pct of unique owners 49% migrated to 3G Smartphones 343 million (26%) is pct of all phones 29% are smartphones Second-hand phones 60 million (5%) is pct of all phones 4% are second-hand
Emerging World 5.6 Billion 3.0 Billion (56%) 2.3 Billion (42%) 2.6 Billion (46%) 1.7 Billion (31%) 66% camphones 75 million (1%) 3% migrated 3G 162 million (3%) 6% smartphones 310 million (7%) 12% are 2nd-hand
The differences are very stark also when considering the types of phones in use. In the Industrialized World, already 49% of all unique mobile phone subscribers have been migrated to 3G. There is a 3G subscription for 44% of the total population. In the Emerging World only 3% of all phone owners have a 3G subscription,
157
and only 1% of the total population in the Emerging World has 3G connectivity. Similarly with smartphones, in the Industrialized World already 29% of all phones in use are smartphones and 26% of the population has a smartphone. In the Emerging World only 6% of all phones in use are smartphones - and a part of these are second-hand smartphones - and of the total population, only 3% have a smartphone. As to second-hand phones, in the Industrialized World, used phones tend to be only used with children and young teenagers. 4% of all phones in use, and 5% of the population use second-hand phones. In the Emerging World 12% of all phones, one in eight, is a second-hand phone, and 7% of the total population has a used phone. Whereas in the West mobile is thought of as the 7th mass medium in chronological sequence, in the Developing World, mobile is often called the first mass media, as it is by far the one with the widest reach. Families that do not own TV sets, have internet access, or even FM radios, have mobile phones. In India for example, MyToday, an SMS text messaging based daily news service, has 3.1 million paid users. In fact, 21% of India's mobile phone owners consume news services or sports on their phones, which is more than the combined circulations of all of India's newspapers.
158
Even basic features can be of immense value. Nokia has found that the FM radio in many of its low-cost phones, is often the first FM radio that some customers have ever owned. Similarly the light of a phone can be used where villages and towns have no night-time street lights, and crime and wild animals offer real threats. Where the banking industry is weak, mobile phone based money systems and m-banking can rapidly become popular, as seen from the Philippines to South Africa. In Kenya in two years, M-Pesa has taken 49% market share of all banking accounts in that country. POVERTY The income levels for the Developing World are far below the levels known at the headquarters of most industry giants. Even a mid-priced smartphone costs more than a year's income for low-paid full-time jobs in parts of Africa like The Ghana. When a 'good job' pays a dollar a day, then there is no market for downloadable applications that cost 'only 99 cents'. The phone services are usually offered on 'prepaid' basis by which there is no contract of monthly fees. This precludes offers of bundled services of a free or low cost phone, in return for a 18 month or 24 month contract. This sets different expectation levels for viable phones, that have to cost less than 50 dollars to the end-user. It also means that the market will see an influx of second
159
hand premium phones on the GSM standard, such as European and Middle-Eastern phones flooding into Africa. These will be an eclectic mix of what were the most popular premium phones a few years ago, Nokias, Samsungs, SonyEricssons. The proportion of second hand phones in many poorer African nations is from a third to up to half of all phones in use. Even in the poorest countries there is a wealthy class. What also has emerged is the economics of connecting the poor, through their wealthier relatives. While the parents may be poor farmers in a village that on first glance cannot support mobile network connectivity, some of their adult-age children now work in a city and can give the parents their old hand-me-down phones, and then these employed children can carry the full cost of the phone calls. In South Africa there is a free 'Call Me' service on SMS, that anyone can use to send the free message to a relative or friend, who then typically calls back and thus carries the cost of the call. In India 30% of all mobile phone owners do not originate any voice calls. ECONOMICS While roughly twice as many mobile phone subscriptions are in the Emerging World than in the Industrialized World, the industry earns nearly twice as much
160
revenues, 550 Billion dollars in the Industrialized World vs 315 Billion dollars in the Emerging World. In the area of non-messaging VAS (Value-Add Service) data revenues, the proportion is even more severe, with four times more income, 79 billion dollars earned in the Industrialized World, and only 19 billion dollars earned in the Emerging World.
Digital Divide - Economics

Population Mobile subscriptions Unique subscribers Industrialized World 1.2 Billion 1.6 Billion (133%) 1.1 Billion (89%) Emerging World 5.6 Billion 3.0 Billion (56%) 2.3 Billion (42%) $315 Billion $ 19 Billion $8.40 $1.45 19% 81%
Mobile Service Revenue $550 Billion VAS Data Revenues $ 79 Billion ARPU (per Subscription) $28.35 Data ARPU $ 7.65 Percent on Postpaid Percent on Prepaid 48% 52%
The Average Revenue per Subscription in the Industrialized World is $28.35. Roughly half of the subscribers are on prepaid and half on postpaid billing accounts in mobile. In the Emerging World the Average
161
Revenue per Subscription is only $8.40 and four out of five subscribers are on prepaid billing plans. ILLITERACY The UN estimates that of reading age population on the planet, 800 million are illiterate. An illiterate user finds no utility in a printed user's manual to a phone. The phone makers and service providers are now adding symbols based guides, with hand gestures, and using simple videos pre-loaded onto the phones, to help illiterate people use functions of a phone. It also means severe problems in particular for mobile banking uses. That also introduces opportunities of 'micro-employment' for example if a teenager is the first in his family to learn to read and write in school, he can then make some money by reading and writing messages for parents, uncles and aunts, etc. I should mention the 'One Goal' initiative, related to the FIFA World Cup of soccer held in South Africa in the summer of 2010. Various heads of state starting with Ban Ki Moon of the the United Nations, and various celebrities from Bono on, to the big soccer/football and sports stars, have joined in the One Goal initiative to put every child into school. This attainable goal has its aim to accomplish this for all children by 2015. I have pledged my support to the One Goal initiative and blog and write and speak about it globally. If your company is
162
looking for a worthwhile 'socially responsible' initiative, please consider supporting the One Goal. LACK OF ELECTRICITY, ADDRESS Another major problem throughout the Developing World is a lack of reliable electricity. That means that phones will place a big premium on battery life. And mobile phone operator stores often offer free recharging services, where customers who do not have electricity at home, can come to the store to get their phones recharged. Some walk for miles to get such free benefits in countries such as war-torn Afghanistan. Migrationary workers from the Philippines find well-paid jobs in Hong Kong; workers from Pakistan in Dubai; from Algeria in France; and from Mexico in the US. Migrants have particular needs in their communications, and often send money back home. Often migrants can be a lucrative market segment when telecoms services are tailored in their own language, etc. Another common aspect is 'addresslessness', for those living a nomadic life; or often where family members can visit for months or even years; and to the millions of refugees from wars, famine, and natural disasters. All still have communication needs and can be served by mobile.
Bonus Page
Chapter 19 - Brief History
163
XIX
Brief History and Milestones
Looking back to understand the future
Here is a short review of mobile telecoms history and major milestones, with selected comparisons with other major technology developments. First a comment. Dr Martin Cooper of Motorola is often said to have "invented the mobile phone" as he did use a prototype cellular hand-held phone to call Dr Joel Engle of AT&T, while walking in New York City in 1973. While perhaps interesting from a prototype testing angle to a new technology, it was however quite a minor point in the development and commercial launch of mobile and cellular telecoms, as early cellular telecoms had already been commercially launched prior to this point and various prototype devices and services would be littering the industry milestones for decades. This historical timeline will examine the actual commercial launches of the significant technologies and services of mobile. Motorola's handheld was commercially launched in 1983 by Ameritel in Chicago and is given proper credit at that point in this timeline.
164
1971 The first commercial nationwide cellular mobile network is launched on ARP technology in Finland as a car phone service. This, often called "zero generation" is the first commercial national cellular telecoms service. 1979 first commercial cellular telecoms network with cell handover, is launched by NTT in Japan. The service is what now is called a "first generation" (1G) analogue network, offering only voice services. Generally this is seen as the birth of modern mobile telecoms. 1981 the first internationally roaming mobile network, NMT, is launched in the four Nordic countries of Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. NMT was the first internationally standardized mobile technology. 1981 IBM launches PC with Charlie Chaplin ads 1983 Motorola launches world's first handheld mobile phone which costs 3,995 dollars on Ameritel network. 1984 Apple Macintosh launched 1985 first laptop by Toshiba in Japan 1989 WWW invented by Sir Tim Berners-Lee 1990 first digital camera by Dycam/Logitech
165
1991 the first digital mobile network and "modern" mobile telecoms is launched by Radiolinja (now Elisa) of Finland on GSM. This is also the introduction of competitive mobile telecoms. 1991 Linux launched by Linus Torvalds 1993 first person-to-person SMS text message from one phone to another by Riku Pihkonen of Nokia in Finland. 1994 Nokia installs music ringing tone to its 2100 phone model, makes Francisco Tarrega's guitar tune Gran Vals ("Nokia Tune") most recognized song on the planet 1994 Internet is on covers of Newsweek and Time 1994 Sony launches PlayStation 1995 first mobile banking services offered by Merita Bank in Finland via SMS text messaging 1995 Yahoo! launches 1995 pre-paid mobile phone accounts for GSM are launched in Portugal 1997 first smartphone is launched by Nokia in Finland with the Communicator 9000 model.
166
1998 first downloadable content: Saunalahti (now part of Elisa) launches ringing tones in Finland 1998 Google launches 1998 the first installed videogame is introduced as part of the phone, when Nokia introduces the Snake 1999 first mobile payment solution launched by Coca Cola in Finland with SMS payment at vending machines 1999 more mobile phones than personal computers 1999 first mobile internet service is launched by NTT DoCoMo in Japan on its i-Mode system 1999 first mobile parking system is launched in Norway using SMS text messaging 2000 first national mobile banking and mobile cash systems launched in the Philippines by Smart as Smart Money and by Globe as G-Cash. 2000 first mobile advertising is introduced by news service of MTV3 the commercial television news broadcaster on its SMS text messaging based free news headline service in Finland
167
2001 first commercial launch of a 3G network by NTT DoCoMo in Japan 2001 first mass-market cameraphones launched by JPhone (now Softbank) and Sharp in Japan 2001 More DVD players sold than VCRs 2001 first picture messaging service (Sha Mail) launched by J-Phone (now Softbank) in Japan 2001 Apple launches iPod 2001 RIM launches Blackberry in Canada 2002 more mobile phones than fixed landlines 2002 more SMS text messaging users than email users 2002 more smartphones sold than PDAs 2002 More digital cameras sold than film cameras 2002 first ringback tones launched in South Korea by SK Telecom and WiderThan 2003 more mobile phones than TV sets 2003 More digital camcorders sold than analogue
168
2003 more cameraphones sold than digital cameras 2003 More internet users than personal computers 2003 Cyworld is first mobile social networking service launched in South Korea by SK Telecom 2003 first full-track MP3 music downloads offered in South Korea. Sony sells of tracks of Ricky Martin MP3s 2004 more mobile phone subscriptions than unique holders of credit cards 2005 more musicphones sold than MP3 players including iPod 2005 first television phones launch in South Korea by Tu Media with inbuilt digital TV tuners on the DMB standard 2006 More DVD players in use than VCRs 2007 Apple launches iPhone 2007 More internet users than landline phones 2007 at 3.3 billion mobile phone subscriptions, there is an active mobile phone subscription for half of the planet's total population of any age
169
2007 more cameraphones are in use than total cumulative sales of all film-based and stand-alone digital cameras ever manufactured 2007 mobile phone become first gadget to sell 1 billion units per year 2008 total mobile phone cumulative shipments exceed human population 2008 More laptops are sold than desktop PCs 2008 more users access mobile internet than internet access on all types of PCs combined 2008 Mobile Telecoms becomes a Trillion Dollar Industry 2008 more smartphones sold than all portable PCs, laptops, notebooks and netbooks combined 2009 total number of unique mobile phone owners reaches 3.4 billion so even eliminating multiple subscriptions, there is literally at least one mobile phone for half of the planet 2009 Mobile data revenues exceed total internet revenues
Tables
170
Tables
Index of Mobile Market Leadership
TomiAhonen Consulting tracks the world's mobile telecoms markets and produces an index that includes the penetration level of mobile phones, the migration to next generation networks, the adoption of mobile data services and the availability of advanced handsets. The top 30 countries from the index are included here in this table, with also the ranking from the previous year. Rank 2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 6 8 9 tie 9 tie Index in 2009 93% 90% 88% 85% 83% 82% 81% 80% 79% 79% Rank in 2008 1 2 3 4 5 7 8 11 9 5 Index in 2008 94% 91% 87% 84% 82% 80% 79% 75% 77% 81%
Country Japan South Korea Italy Austria Taiwan Finland Israel Singapore Sweden UK
Tables
171
11 12 13 14 tie 14 tie 16 17 18 19 tie 19 tie 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 tie 28 tie 30
Ireland Australia Spain Germany Hong Kong Norway Denmark Netherlands USA Portugal Switzerland France Estonia Czech Rep. UAE Greece South Africa Malaysia Hungary Colombia
77% 76% 75% 73% 73% 72% 71% 69% 68% 68% 66% 65% 64% 63% 62% 61% 60% 59% 59% 58%
10 13 tie 12 13 tie 15 tie 17 15 tie 19 21 tie 18 20 21 tie 24 23 25 27 29 tie 28 29 tie 31 tie
76% 72% 73% 72% 71% 70% 71% 68% 65% 69% 66% 65% 63% 64% 62% 60% 58% 59% 58% 57%
The index has a rough rule-of-thumb that ten index points equals about one year of market maturity leadership. So currently Japan leads the Czech Republic by three years and Austria leads Spain by one year, etc.
Tables
172
60 Major Countries
A comparison of the 60 most significant countries for mobile telecoms, including all the most populous countries (with populations over 50 million people) and all markets where the mobile telecoms industry earns more than a billion dollars in annual revenues. Practically that means for the Industrialized World markets all countries with more than 4 million people and most Developing World countries with over 10 million mobile phone subscribers. All data is effective January 1, 2009. The table includes country, population (in millions), subscription total (in millions), penetration rate (in percent), unique mobile phone owners (in millions), network technologies deployed in the country and additional information about 3G deployments and MVNO availability. See below for specifics on the abbreviations for data in the last two columns. Note that after the 60 country table are two summary tables of the leading 25 countries by subscriptions and penetration rate.
Tables
173
Country
Pop
Sub 45 24 11 53 12 173 27 19 746 43 10 6 14 8 8 50 2 6 63 108 17 14 12 521 154 50 6
Pen 113% 111% 135% 34% 109% 91% 79% 110% 56% 96% 16% 134% 135% 138% 83% 66% 3% 127% 98% 131% 148% 177% 121% 46% 67% 71% 132%
Uni 35 19 7 49 9 145 22 14 553 33 9 4 9 5 6 33 2 5 54 72 10 7 9 350 113 34 4
Netwk Other G, i G G G, C G G, C, i G, C, i G, C G,C,T G, C G G G G G, C G G G G G G G, C G G, C G, C G G 3, M 3, M 3, M 3, M 3 3, M 3 3 3 3, M 3 3, M 3 3 3, M 3, M 3, M 3, M 3, M 3, M 3, M
Argentina 40 Australia 22 Austria 8 Bangladesh 159 Belgium 11 Brazil 191 Canada 34 Chile 17 China 1329 Colombia 45 Congo D.R. 63 Croatia 4 Czech Rep 11 Denmark 6 Domin. Rep 10 Egypt 76 Ethiopia 80 Finland 5 France 64 Germany 82 Greece 11 Hong Kong 8 Hungary 10 India 1144 Indonesia 229 Iran 71 Ireland 5
Tables
174
Country Israel Italy Japan Kenya Malaysia Mexico Morocco Netherlands New Zeal. Nigeria Norway Pakistan Peru Philippines Poland Portugal Romania Russia Saudi Arab. Singapore South Afr. South Kor. Spain Sweden Switzerland Taiwan Thailand
Pop 7 60 128 38 28 107 31 17 4 148 5 166 29 91 38 11 22 142 24 5 48 48 46 9 8 23 63
Sub 11 88 110 18 28 84 26 20 5 64 6 97 23 68 46 15 29 205 22 7 48 47 56 12 9 30 64
Pen
Uni
Netwk Other 3 3, M 3, M 3, M 3 3 3, M 3, M 3, M 3 3, M 3, M 3, M 3, M 3 3 3, M 3, M 3, M 3, M 3, M 3, M 3 3
148% 6 G, C, i 146% 51 G 86% 99 U,C,P 48% 12 G 101% 23 G 79% 65 G, C, i 84% 18 G, C 123% 14 G 109% 4 G, C 43% 52 G, C 120% 4 G 59% 71 G, C 79% 17 G, C, i 76% 47 G, i 121% 31 G 139% 9 G 133% 17 G, C 144% 108 G, C 93% 15 G, i 139% 4 G 101% 38 G 98% 41 U, C 122% 40 G 127% 8 G 111% 7 G 130% 20 G, C 101% 52 G, C
Tables
175
Country Turkey UAE UK Ukraine USA Vietnam
Pop 72 4 63 46 306 87
Sub
Pen
Uni
Netwk Other 3 3 3, M 3, M 3, M
69 97% 58 G 7 159% 4 G 77 124% 53 G 65 136% 36 G, C 292 96% 251 G, C, i 67 77% 40 G, C
Notes on the table The Sub column with number in bold indicates total subscriptions in the market including owners with multiple subscriptions. The Uni column reflects the unique mobile phone owners in that market, removing multiple subscriptions. On the networks column, G means GSM, C means CDMA, i means iDen, P means PDC, T means TDSCDMA, and U means non-GSM but compatible UMTS/WCDMA 3G networks. PDC is exclusive to Japan and UMTS indicates only South Korea and Japan, where the countries decided not to deploy "old" GSM technology and only the compatible 3G variant of UMTS/WCDMA. On the last column, on other info, two further details. 3 means that 3G networks have been deployed. For GSM
Tables
176
networks this usually means UMTS/WCDMA but can also mean HSPA. For CDMA networks it means CDMA2000 EV-DO. The last detail is M, where it is indicated, the country has allowed MVNO's (Mobile Virtual Network Operators) into its market - these may include countries that for MVNOs have "come and gone" like in Singapore or "announced but not deployed" as in South Korea. All numbers have been rounded off to the nearest even million to keep the table reasonable for this eBook and still practical to view on handheld devices. Due to the rounding off, the mathematics may not equal the exact percentages, in particular for countries with smaller populations. The penetration percentage number is more accurate than the subscription count in millions, due to this rounding-off error.
Tables
177
25 Leading Countries by Subscribers, Penetration Country China India USA Russia Brazil Indonesia Japan Germany Pakistan Italy Mexico UK Turkey Philippines Vietnam Ukraine Nigeria Thailand France Spain Bangladesh Egypt Iran South Africa South Korea Subscriptions 746,000,000 521,000,000 292,000,000 205,000,000 173,000,000 154,000,000 110,000,000 108,000,000 97,000,000 88,000,000 84,000,000 77,000,000 69,000,000 68,000,000 67,000,000 65,000,000 64,000,000 64,000,000 63,000,000 56,000,000 53,000,000 50,000,000 50,000,000 48,000,000 47,000,000 Country Hong Kong UAE Israel Greece Italy Russia Portugal Singapore Denmark Ukraine Czech Rep Austria Croatia Romania Ireland Germany Taiwan Sweden Finland UK Netherlands Spain Hungary Poland Norway Penetr 177% 159% 148% 148% 146% 144% 139% 138% 138% 136% 135% 135% 134% 133% 132% 131% 130% 127% 127% 124% 123% 121% 121% 121% 120%
Tables
178
25 Leading Countries by 3G Penetration Rate Rank 2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 6 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 tie 15 tie 15 tie 18 19 19 21 22 Country Japan South Korea Singapore Hong Kong Taiwan Sweden Australia UAE Austria Norway Finland Israel Italy Spain Portugal Switzerland New Zealand Ireland UK Denmark Netherlands USA 3G Penetr 3G migrat. per capita of subscr. 78% 77% 75% 74% 73% 71% 65% 59% 58% 56% 55% 54% 52% 48% 47% 47% 47% 44% 43% 38% 36% 31% 80% 79% 54% 42% 56% 56% 58% 37% 43% 47% 43% 37% 36% 39% 34% 42% 43% 34% 35% 26% 30% 32%
Tables
179
23 24 25
Germany Greece France
29% 27% 23%
22% 18% 24%
The primary sorting criterion is 3G penetration rate per capita. Note the more common way to list national 3G rate is the migration rate as a percentage out of all mobile subscribers. This measure is less valid as an international comparison which 'punishes' highpenetration markets like Hong Kong and 'rewards' lowpenetration markets like the USA. Both rates are included in the above table. Note: 3G 'strict definition' used, i.e. ITU ratified 3G systems are counted in the above, i.e. WCDMA, CDMA2000 EV-DO, TD-SCDMA and their more advanced evolution systems. Thus EDGE, CDMA2000 1x RTT etc are not counted as '3G'
Tables
180
20 Biggest Mobile Operator Groups

Operator Group China Mobile Vodafone Telefonica America Movil Telenor T-Mobile TeliaSonera China Unicom Singtel Orange Bharti Airtel Orascom MTN Group MTS Etisalat Reliance AT&T Mobility Telkomsel Telecom Italia Axiata Home China UK Spain Mexico Norway Germany Sweden China Singapore France India Egypt South Afr. Russia UAE India USA Malaysia Italy Malaysia Subs Footprint
510 As 325 Eu, As, Af, ME, NA, Oc 200 Eu, LA 195 NA, LA 175 Eu, As 150 Eu, NA 145 Eu, As 140 As 135 As, Oc 130 Eu, Af, ME, LA 115 As 110 ME, As, Af 105 Af, ME, As, Eu 100 Eu, As 95 ME, Af, As 90 As 85 NA 80 As 75 Eu, LA 70 As
Code for regional footprint: Af Africa, As Asia, Eu Europe, LA Latin America, ME Middle East, NA North America, Oc Oceania
Tables
181
Footprint regions are in order of significance for that carrier group Note the subscriber numbers are 'proportional' subscriber counts, i.e. when an operator owns only part of a subsidiary, the number of subscribers from that subsidiary are allocated in the same proportion as the ownership. All subscriber numbers rounded off to nearest 5 million
Advertisement
Bonus Page
The Current Edition of the Almanac

The TomiAhonen Almanac current edition has 2 years more updated info than in this free edition., This edition is a free fully unlimited shared license. The latest edition of the Almanac was released in February 2012 with all data updated 2 full years form the ones in this free edition. The new TomiAhonen Almanac only costs 9.99 Euros and can be ordered only from one place: www.tomiahonen.com The 2012 edition of Almanac has The 2012 version of this Almanac has been expanded to include 96 tables and charts, and runs 190 pages in total content. Visit www.tomiahonen.com to see the the updated table of content including listing of all tables and charts.
Appendix
182
Good Sources for More Information

Several online resources and free research and documents are available for specific areas of the industry. A few of the most widely referenced, that we can recommend are: Netsize Guide (annual free publication) Tanla Mobile publication) Marketing Guide (annual free
Sharma Consulting who offer mobile industry metrics, as a quarterly review of major data for industry Google/Admob statistics, on ads served on their network and other stats such as smartphone adoption rates across all smartphone platforms InMobile which gives use mobile internet, download and smartphone stats based on their ads served GSM Association, which releases global subscriber data on a quarterly basis
Appendix
183
Bibliography
Agha, Rod Ghani. The Wireless Dawn: Think Wireless to Outthink Your Competition, Authorhouse, 2007, 155 pp Ahonen Tomi. Mobile as 7th of the Mass Media: Cellphone, cameraphone, iPhone, smartphone, futuretext, 2008, 322 pp Ahonen Tomi. m-Profits: Making Money from 3G, Wiley, 2002, 360 pp Ahonen Tomi, Timo Kasper Timo, Sara Melkko. 3G Marketing: Communities and Strategic Partnerships, Wiley, 2004, 333 pp Ahonen Tomi, Alan Moore. Communities Dominate Brands: Business and Marketing Challenges for the 21st Century. Futuretext, 2005, 274 pp Ahonen Tomi, Jim O'Reilly. Digital Korea: Convergence of Internet, Cell phones, Gaming, TV, Virtual Reality, Electronic Cash, Telematics, Robotics, E-Government and the Intelligent Home. . Futuretext, 2007, 284 pp Anderson Chris. The Long Tail. Random House, 2006, 256 pp Ballard Barbara. Designing the Mobile User Interface. Wiley 2007, 260 pp
Appendix
184
Benkler Yochai. Wealth of Networks, Yale University Press, 2006. 528 pp Calvo Agustin. Open Your Eyes and Wake Up Your Business, Calvo 2006, 30 pp Curtis Mark. Distraction, Futuretext 2005, 222 pp Cushman, David: Power of the Network, Lulu 2008, 98 pp Dushinski Kim, Mobile Marketing Handbook, Cyberage. 2008, 248 pp Fatteringham Vern and Chetan Sharma: Wireless Broadband, Wiley , 2008, 253 pp Gillin Paul. The New Influencers. Quill Driver Books, 2007. 258 pp Golding Paul. Next Generation Wireless Applications, Wiley, 2004, 588 pp Hayes Tom, Jump Point. McGraw-Hill, 2008, 240 pp Jaokar Ajit, Jouko Ahvenainen, Alan Moore, Brian Jacobs: Social Media Marketing, Futuretext, 2009, 220 pp Jaokar Ajit, Fish Tony. Mobile Web 2.0, Futuretext, 2006, 176 pp Jenkins Henry. Convergence Culture. NYU Press 2006, 336 pp
Appendix
185
Kopomaa, Timo. City in your Pocket, the birth of the information society, Gaudeamus, 2000, 143 pp Lindholm Christian, Keinonen Turkka. Mobile Usability. McGraw-Hill, 2003, 301pp MacDonald, Jonathan: Every Single One Of Us, Lulu, 2008 64 pp Radhakrishnan Rakesh. Identity and Security. Futuretext, 2007, 418 pp Rheingold Howard. Smart Mobs: The next social revolution, Basic, 2002, 288 pp Rigby Ben. Mobilizing Generation 2.0. Jossey-Bass, 2008. 288 pp Sauter Martin, Beyond 3G, Wiley, 2008, 366 pp Scoble Robert. Naked Conversations: How blogs are changing the way businesses talk with customers. Hungry Minds, 2006, 251 pp Sharma Chetan, Joe Herzog, Victor Melfi. Mobile Advertising: Supercharge your Brand in the Exploding Wireless Market, Wiley, 404 pp Steinbock Dan. The Mobile Revolution, Kogan Page 2005, 304 pp Weiss Tom. Mobile Strategies, Futuretext, 2006, 186 pp
Appendix
186
Good Websites and Blogs

160 Characters (SMS Text Messaging Association) http://www.160characters.org 7th Mass Media blog (Tomi T Ahonen) http://www.7thmassmedia.com All About Symbian http://www.allaboutsymbian.com Always On Real Time Access (Chetan Sharma) http://www.chetansharma.com/blog Carnival of the Mobilists (every week different host) http://www.mobili.st Gigaom (Om Malik) http://gigaom.com Colin's Corner (Colin Crawford) http://www.colincrawford.typepad.com Communities Dominate Blog (Tomi T Ahonen) http://www.communitiesdominate.com Every Single One Of Us (Jonathan MacDonald) http://www.everysingleoneofus.com
Appendix
187
Forum Oxford (registration required but free site) http://www.forumoxford.com M Search Groove (Peggy Ann Salz) http://www.msearchgroove.com M-Trends (Rudy de Waele) http://www.m-trends.org Mob Happy (Russell Buckley and Carlo Longino) http://www.mobhappy.com Mobile Crunch http://mobilecrunch.com Mobile Data Association http://www.themda.org Mobile Monday Global Site http://www.mobilemonday.net Moconews (James Pearce) http://www.moconews.net Open Gardens (Ajit Jaokar) http://www.opengardensblog.futuretext.com
Appendix
188
SMLXL (company website) http://www.smlxtralarge.com Smart Mobs (Howard Rheingold) http://www.smartmobs.com Technokitten (Helen Keegan) http://technokitten.blogspot.com Textually (Emily Turrettini) http://www.textually.org Tomi T Ahonen (company website) http://www.tomiahonen.com Wireless Watch Japan (Scuka and Cosh-Ishii) http://wirelesswatch.jp Wireless Wanders (Paul Golding) http://blog.wirelesswanders.com Xellular Identity (Xen Mendelsohn) http://www.xellular.net ZD Net http://www.zdnet.com
About the Author
189
About the Author
Tomi T Ahonen is a twelve-time best-selling author, consultant and motivational speaker based in Hong Kong. He is a guest lecturer at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile, new media and digital convergence. He offers consultancy to Global 500 companies on all six continents. Tomi Ahonen was rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in 2012. Widely respected, his books and theories are referenced already in over 120 books by other authors. Tomi is the father of several significant theories and concepts for the industry including the Six M's (originally Five M's) the mobile industry service development tool used by all leading companies in the industry; the Hockey Sticks mobile industry revenues and costs equation; the Connected Age paradigm; Generation C for Community, and the 7 Mass Media taxonomy, all of which have been referenced in published books by other experts. Tomi holds co-inventor status on several patents in the mobile telecoms space. Tomi is known as an evangelist for new technologies who has discussed over 1,500 of his "Pearls" in the public domain. Tomi has delivered keynotes at over 300
About the Author
190
conferences on six continents and has been quoted in over 350 press articles in leading press such as Wall Street Journal, Economist, Business Week, Financial Times, etc. and is often seen on TV. His columns have appeared in New Media Knowledge, Mobile Handset Analyst, Asia-Pacific Connect World, European Communications, IEE Communications Engineer, Telecommunications, Mobile Communications, Total Telecom, etc. Serving as co-editor of the Forum Oxford Journal, Tomi sits the Editorial Board of the Journal of Telecommunications Management and on the Advisory Board of Mobile Monday. A founding member of Wireless Watch, Carnival of Mobilists, Engagement Alliance and Every Single One Of Us, Tomi co-chairs Forum Oxford. His blog at CommunitiesDominate.com together with Alan Moore, is rated one of the most influential and is syndicated widely including at CNBC, Business Week and the New York Times. He also blogs on mobile specific topics at www.7thMassMedia.com. Tomis consulting reference client list reads like the whos who of high tech, including Axiata, BT, Buongiorno, China Mobile, Ericsson, Google, HewlettPackard, IBM, Intel, LG, Motorola, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Orange, RIM, Siemens, SK Telecom, T-Mobile, Telefonica, Telenor, TeliaSonera, TiGo and Vodafone. Tomi has consulted many non-technology customers
About the Author
191
including Aller, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Bank of Finland, BBC, DHL, Economist, Emap, HSBC, MTV, Ogilvy, Royal Bank of Scotland, Sanoma, Telegraaf and the United Nations Security Council. Tomi serves on the Boards of several start-ups, and advises industry bodies such as the Singapore Infocomm Development Agency, Canadian Wireless Telecoms Association, Irish Marketing Association and Communications Industry Association of Japan. Tomi set up his own telecoms and media consultancy in 2001. Before that he was employed by Nokia as Global Head of 3G Consulting where Tomi oversaw Nokia's 3G Research Centre. Earlier at Nokia he was Nokia's first Segmentation Manager and started his Nokia career working with internet gateways authoring Nokia's first white paper to discuss how the internet could be deployed on mobile telecoms networks. Prior to that he worked with two telecoms operators, Elisa and the Finnet Group in Finland where his accomplishments include creating the worlds first fixedmobile service bundle, the world's largest multi-operator billing system; and setting the world record for taking market share from the incumbent. Prior to that Tomi was Head of Marketing for New York's first internet service provider, OCSNY. He started his career on Wall Street. Tomi holds an International Finance MBA (with hons) from St Johns University NY and a bachelors in
About the Author
192
International Marketing from Clarion University (with hons). Tomi Ahonen's previous books are Mobile as 7th of the Mass Media (2008), Digital Korea (2007) with Jim O'Reilly, Communities Dominate Brands (2005) with Alan Moore, 3G Marketing (2004) with Timo Kasper and Sara Melkko, m-Profits (2002) and Services for UMTS (2002) with Joe Barrett. Each of his books has been certified a technology bestseller. The world's largest publisher of engineering and technology books, John Wiley & Sons said at the 3GSM World Congress in 2005 that Ahonen's 3G Marketing had become the fastest-selling telecoms book of all time. So far he has had books translated into Chinese and Spanish; and one of his books, Digital Korea has been serialized. In 2009 Tomi released his eBook series focusing on his Pearls, with Tomi Ahonen Pearls Vol 1: Mobile Advertising, followed by Vol 2: Mobile Social Networking and Vol 3: Mobile Money. Tomi also publishes this annual industry statistical Almanac, and its sister production focusing on the handset industry, the biannual TomiAhonen Phone Book, which will get its next update in the summer of 2012. For more see www.tomiahonen.com
Back of Book
193
Tomi T Ahonen in the press over the years

Ahonen referred to the unexpected success of Japan's i-mode service. Total Telecom 12 October 2000
"The biggest service to disappear off the 3G radar screen is video telephony,' Tomi Ahonen said.
Global Mobile Daily 26 February 2001
"The information sent to the phone can be personalised," said Ahonen. Economist October 13, 2001
"By the end of this year mobile phones will overtake TVs," Ahonen said. Mobile Wireless News June 19, 2002
Tomi Ahonen predicted that some people will happily carry two phones. Cambridge Network News July 8, 2003
"Mobile web surfing today is not like fixed internet web surfing," says Tomi Ahonen Business Week Oct 13, 2003
Tomi Ahonen is predicting rapid dramatic growth for SMS over the next five years, in Americas as well as in Europe and Asia. Wireless Asia December 15, 2003
Ahonen predicts that in the future, the phone will replace music players. ITWeb November 10, 2004
"The mobile phone is the only device that 30% of the world's population carries," says Tomi Ahonen. Financial Times 31 August 2005
Tomi Ahonen told Wireless Asia that Cellphones were replacing wristwatches. Wireless Asia 1 Sept 2006
Tomi T Ahonen believes that even media business should be very very worried about iPhone. Santa Fe New Mexican 13 June 2007
Previous Famous Forecasts on Mobile

Tomi Ahonen calls Mobile the 7th Mass Media and he believes that it will be more important to advertisers than the fixed web. Brand Republic March 25, 2008
Back of Book
194
by Tomi T Ahonen
Tomi T Ahonen significant public forecasts, where his view has been controversial at the time, and often been the first in the industry to voice that view; that can now be determined for accuracy. Please consider the timing of the forecasts as made: 1998: Mobile phone penetrations will exceed landline penetrations (correct) 1999: Ringing tones will be international success (correct) 1999-2005: Saturation ceiling is a myth (widely held myth that mobile penetrations cannot exceed x percent, where the percent shifted gradually up from 60%-100%) (correct) 2000: Mobile phone penetration rates will exceed human population in industrialized countries (correct) 2000: Majority of US citizens will become active users of SMS text messaging (correct) 2000: Videocalls will become a significant revenue source in 3G (wrong, changed mind in 2001) 2000: Location-based services will become major source of revenues (wrong, changed mind in 2002) 2001: MVNOs will take up to 20% of national subscriber numbers (correct)
Back of Book
195
2001: Concept of location-based push "spam" ads is not going to succeed (correct) 2001: It will become commonplace that people will carry two phones (correct) 2001: Stand-alone PDAs will lose their market to smartphones (correct) 2001: SMS text messaging is addictive (correct) 2001: MMS picture messaging usage will follow pattern of SMS usage (wrong, changed mind in 2004) 2001: Videocalls will not form significant revenue source in 3G (correct, note this is change from 2000) 2002: Ringback tones will become billion dollar industry (correct) 2002: MVNOs will be short-lived phenomenon in most markets (correct) 2002: Mobile telecoms revenues will exceed fixed telecoms revenues (correct) 2002: Mobile content revenues will exceed internet content revenues (correct) 2002: More people will access internet on mobile phones than personal computers (correct) 2002: Location-based services will not become major mass-market success (correct, change from 2000) 2002: Inspite of bad reputation of early WAP launches, WAP not crap, will become success (correct) 2002: Inspite of the success of Blackberry, more US users will use SMS than wireless email (correct)
Back of Book
196
2003: Inspite of the telco bubble burst and 100 billion dollar 3G licences, 3G will become commercial success (correct) 2003: Stand-alone cameras will lose market to cameraphones (correct) 2003: Of new services, ringback tones will produce bigger revenues than MMS in 2003 (correct) 2004: MMS picture messaging not follow SMS, yet will become success (correct, note is change from 2001) 2004: iPods will lose musicplayer market to musicphones (correct) 2005: Mobile social networking is first killer application for 3G (correct) 2005: Blackberries better suited for consumer SMS texting than enterprise wireless email use (correct) 2005: Engagement marketing on mobile phones will produce satisfied customers (correct) 2006: Apple will have to release an 'iPod Phone' (which became iPhone) to combat loss of market of iPod to musicphones (correct, confirmed by Apple that this was reason for iPhone) 2007: iPhone will ignite US based giants of the media industries, the PC makers and the advertising industry to enter mobile (correct) (note more recent Tomi T Ahonen forecasts cannot yet be determined for their accuracy)
Bonus Page
Back of book
Tomi T Ahonen workshops
Tomi T Ahonen provides his invaluable insights and the latest of his "Pearls" in workshops, seminars and briefings to the industry. His workshops and seminars have been run on all six inhabited continents and are regularly booked by the leading global players in the seventh mass media space. His workshop has also been adapted into a university short course by Oxford University. Typical subjects that 7th Mass Media seminars and workshops cover include the mass media taxonomy and lessons learned from previous transitions such as when recordings (the first "new media" one hundred years ago) were introduced, of how recordings later adjusted to the advent of radio; how television cannibalized cinema and radio content, and how those media channels adapted, etc.
Back of book
Typical 7th Mass Media seminars and workshops include the primary tool for creating compelling content for mobile, The Ahonen-Barrett-Goldberg tool of the Six M's (referenced in a dozen books and used by all major industry players from Nokia and Motorola to Vodafone and NTT DoCoMo) 7th Mass Media workshops and seminars will feature latest commercially launched services and innovations (ie Pearls). The major content categories will be covered, and focus areas can be provided for specific content areas such as mobile advertising, mobile social networking, mobile commerce, mobile TV and video, etc. MANY OTHER WORKSHOPS - Tomi can do workshops on how the industry makes money including business models, value chains and eco-systems; on various service and application types from music to gaming to social networking; on industry players; strategies; marketing and pricing; customer insights etc. Write to tomi@tomiahonen.com to request a proposal and book a seminar or workshop.
Back of book
Other books by Tomi T Ahonen:

Pearls Vol 2: Mobile Social Networking, an eBook
171 pages Published by TomiAhonen Consulting in April 2009, only as eBook edition Covers 50 case studies of mobile social networking available only at www.tomiahonen.com for download at cost of 9.99 Euro
Pearls Vol 1: Mobile Advertising

an eBook with foreword by Russell Buckley, Chairman Mobile Marketing Association and Managing Director, Admob Europe 171 pages Published by TomiAhonen Consulting in January 2009, only as eBook edition Covers 50 case studies of mobile advertising available only at www.tomiahonen.com for immediate download at cost of 9.99 Euro
Back of book
Mobile as 7th of the Mass Media

Cellphone, cameraphone, iPhone, smartphone foreword by Pekka Ala-Pietila Chairman Blyk, past President Nokia (published by futuretext) 2008 hardcover 322 pages ISBN 978-0-9556069-5-3 (see one chapter excerpt next in this eBook)
Digital Korea:
Convergence of Broadband Internet, 3G Cellphones, Multi-player Gaming, Digital TV, Virtual Reality, Electronic Cash, Telematics, Robotics, E-Government and the Intelligent Home by Tomi T Ahonen & Jim O'Reilly foreword by Dr Hyun-oh Yoo President and CEO SK Communications 284 pages hardcover, futuretext 2007 ISBN 978-0-9556069-0-8 A lot of what we in the UK, think of as futurology is actually already happening in Korea. Peter Miles, CEO, SubTV, UK The book is an excellent summary of what has been going on for the past few years in Korea Book Review Korea IT Times August 2007
Back of book
Communities Dominate Brands:

Business & Marketing Challenges for the 21st Century by Tomi T Ahonen & Alan Moore foreword by Stephen C Jones Chief Marketing Officer Coca Cola 280 pages, hardcover, futuretext, 2005 ISBN 0-9544327-3-8 "Invaluable in how power will reside far more with ordinary people than with companies." Rory Sutherland, Vice Chairman, OgilvyOne UK "An excellent, reassuring book! In 5 years time it will a classic - the new bible for new marketeers." Dr Axel Alber, Marketing Director, Masterfoods Europe
M-Profits
Making Money from 3G Services By Tomi T Ahonen (360 pages, hardcover, John Wiley 2002) Foreword by Teppo Turkki Strategy Director Elisa Corporation ISBN 0-470-84775-1 Good read for industry professionals, operators, bankers and analysts. Voytek Siewierski NTT DoCoMo Japan
Back of book
3G Marketing
Communities and Strategic Partnerships By Tomi T Ahonen, Timo Kasper and Sara Melkko (333 pages, hardcover, John Wiley & Sons, 2004) Forewords by Mike Short VP O2 and Chairman MDA; and Jouko Ahvenainen Chairman Xtract Ltd ISBN 0-470 -85100-7 second printing 2004 also translated into Chinese "Insightful look into capitalising on customer data and developing targetted marketing propositions." Jan-Anders Dalenstam, Ericsson
Services for UMTS

Creating Killer Applications in 3G Edited by Tomi Ahonen and Joe Barrett 373 pages, hardcover John Wiley 2002 Forword by Alan Hadden Chairman GSM Suppliers Association ISBN 0471 485500 also translated into Chinese Explains some of the compelling services. Jeff Lawrence Intel
Excerpt from Tomi T Ahonen's fourth book Mobile as 7th of the Mass Media
Excerpt from Tomi T Ahonen book
Mobile as 7th of the Mass Media

Cellphone, cameraphone, iPhone, smartphone foreword by Pekka Ala-Pietila Chairman Blyk, past President Nokia (published by futuretext) 2008 first hardcover edition ISBN 978-0-9556069-5-3 "The internet in every pocket." Jorma Ollila, CEO of Nokia Chapter 1 - Introduction Cellphone, the only universal gadget Because the need to communicate is more powerful than the need to compute, to be entertained, or to be informed. At the end of 2007 there were almost three times as many cellphone subscriptions as there were total users on the internet. There were four times as many cellphones as there are personal computers of all kinds laptops, desktops and servers combined. There were more than five times as many cellphone subscriptions in the world as there were cars. Twice as many people had cellphones as had credit cards. The population of cellphones was twice as big as the population of TV sets
in use. There were 2.5 times as many cellphones as there were fixed landline phones. In fact, by late November 2007 there was a cellphone subscription for a staggering 50% of the world's total population. Since Taiwan first did it in 2001, today over 60 countries have achieved cellphone penetration rates of over 100% per capita. For comparison, the USA cellphone penetration rate was about 85% at the end of 2007, placing it second-to-last among industrialized countries. Canada was in last place with about 65% penetration. In the most advanced mobile markets such as Hong Kong, Taiwan, Italy and Finland, the typical first-time cellphone customer is well under the age of eight. How can you reach over 100% per capita penetration rates? Hong Kong, Taiwan, Italy, Israel, the UK are all at 130% or above - means that an increasing part of the employed population has two or more subscriptions. Informa measured that by 2007 already 28% of all cellphone owners in the world already have two or more subscriptions. Moreover, in most cases this means also carrying two phones. Half of Western Europeans with a cellphone actually have two or more subscriptions - and most of them carry two phones. There is no other gadget that is even remotely as widely adopted and spread across the planet as the cellphone. Anyone with a job and disposable income has a cellphone, so if you want to sell anything, anyone who is "economically viable" on the planet, carries a
cellphone. Even in China (40% penetration rate per capita), India (20%) and Africa (15%) cellphones are everywhere. I will discuss the overall economics, the big picture numbers and contrasts to other major technologies in the next chapter about the numbers involved in this industry soon to hit a Trillion dollars in value. 60% take it to bed every night Then I will examine the owners of cellphones and how they use the devices. I will explore the society and how our behavior is changing with this technology. Earlier, the only gadget the "whole population" used to carry was the wristwatch. However, even here the cellphone is trumping the watch: young people have stopped using wristwatches and rely only upon the cellphone to tell time. A global Nokia survey of cellphone users in 2006 found that 73% of cellphone owners use the clock on the phone. Not all of these have abandoned wearing a wristwatch, but an increasing portion of the world uses the phone as the only time-keeping device. The cellphone is the only universal device. As the cellphone has become a universal gadget, it is also inducing remarkably addictive signs of behavior. Almost every cellphone user, 91% in fact, keeps the cellphone literally within arm's reach 24 hours, seven days a week, 365 days of the year according to Morgan Stanley in 2007. A 2005 study of global
cellphone use by BBDO revealed that 60% of us actually take the cellphone physically to bed with us! When I was telling this to audiences around the world in 2005, I got a lot of smiles and laughter in the conferences. But then when I asked the audience members to raise their hands if they did so, invariably about half of the hands went up. In advanced wireless telecoms countries like Finland, Singapore and South Korea it was nearly the whole audience who admitted to sleeping with the phone. Why to bed? Some use the cellphone now as the alarm clock - Nokia's 2006 survey found that 72% of the total phone owner population does this. Others use it to send or receive messages still late into the night, or to make (or expect) a nighttime call. A study by the Catholic University of Leuwen in Belgium found that the majority of teenagers send text messages from bed. I will have a whole chapter looking at young people and their cellphone behavior. The cellphone is the last thing we look at before we fall asleep and again the first thing we see when we wake up. If you are into media, this is a powerful device. A study by Unisys revealed that if we lose our wallet we report it in 26 hours. If we lose our cellphone, we report it in 68 minutes. As to those who are new to these phenomena, no, we do not only use the cellphone outdoors. A study by NTT DoCoMo the largest wireless carrier (mobile operator) of Japan discovered that 60% of all wireless data access by cellphone is done indoors,
often in parallel with watching TV or surfing the internet on a PC. To help readers develop successful services, I discuss how to build magic for wireless services in one chapter, and use my theory of the 6 M's, the very widely referenced mobile service development system, in examining service concepts. Center of convergence The cellphone is becoming the evolution target for much of the digitally converging industries. I will show how the battle for the pocket saw the rapid victories by smartphones over stand-alone PDAs, soon outselling them by more than 10 to 1; cameraphones over standalone digital cameras by more than 4 to 1; and more musicphones than iPods and other stand-alone MP3 players by a ratio of 7 to 1. Towards the back of the book I take brief looks at convergence also from the industries that are involved, in how the internet, TV and cellphones are converging today; and how the banking/credit card industry and advertising are joining into that convergence soon. I touch upon the features creeping onto the cellphone and show how the phone has added new functionalities from one, communication, to eight functionalities today in the chapter on the Eight C's. In the Disruption chapter, I also examine the role of the Apple iPhone as a disruptive technology, as well as the
concept of the MVNO as a disruptive business model for the industry. Powerful media platform In the book, I devote several chapters to examine the early popular media categories for cellphones. I start with the music business. As 31% of all consumer dollars spent on music worldwide is already spent on cellphone music, I devote a chapter to this phenomenon. Yes, it starts with ringing tones, of course, but there is a bewildering array of more advanced music services in the 9.3 billion dollars that people spend on cellphone music services worldwide today, such as true-tones (mastertones), ringback tones (waiting tones), music videos, music streaming, karaoke, welcoming tones, background tones, etc. In videogaming we see the same pattern. Growing rapidly, in 2007 already 20% of videogaming software revenues came from cellphone games. Advertising is another industry headed to your cellphone, and by the end of 2007, the worldwide advertising spend on cellphones had reached 2.2 billion dollar in value. Spreading fast, more than half of all cellphone owners in countries as diverse as Japan, UK and Spain received ads on their phones. The latest industry to discover the cellphone as a delivery platform is TV. The first cellphones with digital TV tuners (i.e. built-in "set-top boxes") went already on
sale in South Korea in the Summer of 2005 an by the end of 2007 there were seven million of such advanced TV-phones in Korea, or 17% of the total cellphone subscriber base watching full broadcast TV on cellphones. I will discuss music, gaming, TV and advertising for cellphones each in detail in their respective chapters later in the book. The texting divide The impact of cellphones to communication is enormous, and that communication is shifting away from voice calls to cellphone messaging. Not wireless email like on a Blackberry, no: the big cellphone messaging system is SMS text messaging. Over 2.5 billion people were active users of SMS text messaging in 2007. For contrast, while there were only 1.3 billion users of the internet, only 1.2 billion active users of email who maintained 2 billion email accounts. So out of the planet's population of 6.6 billion, only 18% can be reached via email. Compare that with the 3.2 billion of all cellphone subscribers or 48% of the planet who are capable of receiving SMS text messages, and 2.5 billion or 38% of the whole population worldwide who are active users, and thus able to respond via SMS. No wonder all industries from automobile service garages to airlines to libraries to dentists are now rolling out SMS text messaging based customer communication systems.
SMS is perhaps the least understood of the new services on cellphones. It is definitely the most counterintuitive service of them all and were it not for irrefutable facts and incredible usage patterns, no amount of logic could possibly explain the business or the use cases for SMS text messaging. That is why I have a whole chapter on this phenomenon. In addition, no matter how much you may love your Blackberry, trust me, the "Crackberry" is a mild drug, compared with SMS text messaging. With annual revenues of 100 billion dollars and still growing at double digits annually, this is a monster of a service and must be understood to grasp how compelling the cellphone can be as a media channel. Multipurpose device clever at payments Each cellphone can handle payments. There are some early examples of these appearing in the USA and Canada, so some may find the concept plausible, if not obviously practical. Never- theless, keeping in mind that we carry our cellphone everywhere, if payment abilities are added to the device, it soon becomes the preferred means of payment. Why worry about having the correct change for the bus, the parking meter or to buy a can of Pepsi? You do not need to handle the small change: do the payment on the cellphone instead. Just click the button, and the payment appears on your next phone bill.
What may have seemed like novelties, are now real industries. Payments by cellphone are very widely deployed already, ranging from paying for public transportation - trams, the subway and busses - as 53% already do via their cellphones in Helsinki Finland. In Estonia, all parking is now paid by cellphone. In Slovenia, all taxis accept payment by cellphone. In the Netherlands you can pay for your train tickets by cellphone. The governments are getting in on the action as well. In Finland, you can buy a fishing license by cellphone while in Abu Dhabi the police will allow you to pay for speeding tickets with your cellphone. In countries from the Philippines to South Africa, many employers pay full salaries direct to cellphone accounts and in Kenya already a fifth of all bank accounts have migrated to cellphones. The Singapore government announced in 2006 that all egovernment initiatives would be made compatible with cellphones and SMS text messaging. Will it be the future? Today over half of Koreans use their cellphone for paying anything from public transportation to the grocery bill to paying for their petrol at the gasoline station. I will discuss the mobile payments and mobile banking later in this book, as well as the topic of how society is changing with wireless services on cellphones. Birth of Gen-C I've already written a lot about Generation-C in my fourth
book, Communities Dominate Brands with Alan Moore. One might assume it means Generation "C for Cellphones", or maybe it is "C for Content"; but actually the C in Gen-C stands for "Communities". It is the Community Generation, the first generation that experiences life, its anxieties, decisions, emotions, successes and failures, with the best buddies always at hand. Almost telepathically connected, living collectively, with a "hive mentality". No longer reacting to a school bully alone, now Gen-C will fetch friends to rally to help - with the cellphone. While the gadget of choice for Gen-C is the cellphone, that generation is actually the first multidevice (or multiplatform) generation, using cellphones, text messaging, chat, instant messaging, blogging, multiplayer gaming, virtual reality worlds, social networks, search etc interchangeably and concurrently. Gen-C is the super-consumer of tomorrow. The preferred gadget of Gen-C is of course the cellphone. I will discuss Gen-C in its own chapter later in this book. A related concept is that of social networking, known also as user-generated content, digital communities and Web 2.0. Since our book in 2005, recently most social networking experts have joined in our conclusion that the inevitable direction for all social networking services will be to cellphones. What may surprise readers is that while mobile social networking is only five years old, less than half as old as that of internet based online social networking, the cellphone
variant already earns more money worldwide. Mobile social networking was worth 5 billion dollars in 2007 and as the business was launched in 2003, it makes mobile social networking the fastest-growing billion-dollar industry in the economic history of mankind. I will devote a chapter to it. Before iPhone, After iPhone There is one more element that has been changing perceptions of cellphones particularly in America, and that was the launch of the Apple iPhone in June of 2007. I have been saying, writing and blogging that the wireless telecoms industry will come to look back at June 2007 as a threshold moment. We can actually count cellphone development time, like two eras. The era Before the iPhone (BI), and the era After the iPhone (AI). Therefore, I discuss the iPhone and its impact in the disruption chapter near the end. The cellphone started as a communication device, what I call the "first C". In a very short period of time that expanded to include consumption (the browser), then charging (payments), commercials (advertising) then creation (the camera). Now we are adding communities (social networking such as uploading pictures to Flickr), cool (fashion) and even control (remote control of our lives such as our locks, home heating, security systems etc). I will discuss this evolution pattern as the "8 C's" in its own chapter later in the book.
American creativity will wake up The other benefit of the introduction of the iPhone is perhaps more subtle, but more far-reaching. The June 2007 launch of the Apple iPhone was certainly the most visible technology marketing campaign ever seen. In the past American audiences have been poorly served by the handset makers and the wireless carriers. Americans have never had first releases of new top-line phones in the world - many of the top models by the giant handset makers have not even been launched in America at all. In addition, the American wireless carriers are also seen by the industry pundits as nearer Third World carriers than their more advanced rivals in Europe, Asia and Australia. Cellphone features, carrier services, pricing and interconnectivity are all much more advanced in other major industrialized countries than in America. So American consumers and business executives have an outdated view of cellphones and wireless services. Imagine if you lived in an African country where the local airport only served propeller driven airplanes. You would have a hard time believing how comfortable travel could be in modern jetliners. Nevertheless, once that airport was expanded and modernized and modern jets started to serve your city, you would rapidly understand how relevant jet travel is to world commerce today.
When Apple rolled out its iPhone launch marketing, suddenly every American executive noticed a large screen, color screen cameraphone with web browser and media player. Moreover, the prevalent thought was: "Wow. I want one of those." And the next thought was "Why can't my business be on it?" So after the launch of the iPhone, suddenly every IT industry executive, every TV industry boss, every Hollywood mogul, every print baron, every gaming developer etc, woke up to the potential of cellphones. To illustrate how the North American cellular telecoms industry compares to the rest of the world, and to help discover regions where the cutting edge and bleeding edge of the industry currently exists, I end the book with an analysis of what factors have caused North America to fall behind in this rapidly growing industry. Seventh of the Mass Media This book looks at the cellphone emerging as the Seventh of the Mass Media. Print was the first, five hundred years ago. At the turn of the century around 1900, we had three "new" mass media in short succession, with recordings the second, cinema the third and radio the fourth mass media channel. Then around 1950 we had TV emerge as the fifth. Then after 1990, the internet appeared as the sixth. Now around 2000 mobile (the cellphone) appears as the latest, the seventh mass media channel.
It is not the dumb little brother of the internet, nor the dumb tiny screen version of TV. Yes, the cellphone is small, but it has attributes that make it a superior medium in many ways and a dominating media channel in the three most important factors - reach, audience accuracy and money. I like to say that mobile as the 7th mass media channel, is as different from the internet, as TV is from radio. TV overtook radio almost totally as the predominant media channel, replicating all previously existing radio content, and then adding countless new content types and formats not possible on radio. Now we face a similar situation with mobile taking over from the internet - and very shortly will become the predominant interactive media, replicating most that exists on the internet, and creating already today numerous media formats that cannot be replicated on the internet. Early in the book, I go to considerable detail to explain exactly why the cellphone is as powerful as a media channel, can it truly be more potent than the internet? I devote one chapter just to understand the unique benefits of the cellphone as the seventh of the mass media. I then show how we can build magical new services for it. To sum up The cellphone is certainly the most widely spread technology. There are 20 times more cellphones than
Playstations; 30 times more cellphones than iPods. It is the only universal gadget, and it has now become the newest media channel. The first media content to discover cellphones was music ten years ago and today over 31% of all music sold worldwide is consumed on cellphones. Videogames were the second category and over 20% of that industry has migrated to cellphones. TV, news, social networking, even internet services are all now headed to the cellphone, as the newest and most prevalent mass media channel. Advertising is also headed to a cellphone screen near you. It is not easy to build successful services for cellphones. You cannot just copy the internet or other media and be guaranteed a success on the 7th of the Mass Media. However, by understanding what makes the cellphone unique, and more powerful as a medium than any of the six legacy media; that is how future media empires will be built. That is why we all need to understand the cellphone. This is a book to help you on that journey. I will start by putting the big picture into context, with the next chapter focusing on the numbers of this emerging giant industry. At the end of each chapter I will also showcase some example from leading innovators in this industry such as Blyk, Flirtomatic, Cyworld and SeeMeTV. For those wondering is the cellphone viable as a media channel, consider these words from the former Director General of the BBC, Greg Dyke, "The time is coming where all the traditional
broadcast shows will be available on your mobile phone."
First Opinions on Tomi's sixth book, Mobile as 7th of the Mass Media: "Tomi instinctively knows that in the tumult of convergence between mobile and other media, there lies opportunity. In this book, building on his earlier themes, he presents his ideas with characteristic wit and charm, handily demystifying this new media landscape. A most enjoyable and remarkably practical book, his best yet!" Daniel Appelquist, Senior Technology Strategist, Vodafone Group UK Tomi Ahonen has always been a visionary and lucid thinker about media in general, but especially ahead of the pack in his insight about the profound computing revolution that is being led by digital mobile phones. This book provides a solid foundation for how we got here, why, and whats next. Trip Hawkins, Chairman & CEO Digital Chocolate USA Founder of Electronic Arts USA
"Tomi's latest book continues his deep insights into the mobile industry and provides practical examples of advanced media concepts utilizing the unique benefits of mobile. I can warmly recommend this book for anyone who wants to deploy media concepts to mobile." Jari Tammisto, CEO & President, Mobile Monday Global, Finland "Tomi Ahonen's latest book adds to the wealth of insights he has given to the industry, and has useful perceptions of how the Japanese market is evolving as it adjusts to cellphones as a mass media channel." Ted Matsumoto, Executive Vice President and Chief Strategy Officer, Softbank Japan Tomi's book takes us through the changes and opportunities in this new converged world of voice, data and broadcast media. With fascinating examples from around the world he lays out the potential for an industry that could become one of the largest in the world. Anyone who is interested in the future of mobile should read this book. Colin Crawford, Executive VP Interactive, IDG Communications USA Tomi's latest book offers a deep comprehension into how advanced marketing and advertising concepts can be built
using mobile phones. His style of mixing real world practical examples with the latest customer insights and sound commercial data makes his books so valuable in understanding mobile in leading markets today. BJ Yang, CEO AirCross South Korea Tomi Ahonen is the most thoughtful commentator on the mobile industry: his theory that mobile is a new mass media is spot on. Mark Curtis, CEO Flirtomatic UK Author of Distraction: Being Human in a Digital Age "Tomi has built a compelling story not just of how the mobile platform will evolve, but how the other 6 media platforms will ultimately be part of the 7th mobile platform. In other words, he demonstrates the fundamental shift from 'mobile communications' to 'personalized communications' and in the long run, to 'all personalized transctions and interactions' and that this will encompass all elements of the value chain from research and awareness building to sales, marketing, production, service and lifecycle. Welcome to the world of the segment and segments of one customer. Bravo, Tomi." Garrett Johnston, Chief Marketing Officer, MTS Russia Book blog: www.communities-dominate.blogs.com

Tomiahonen Almanac 2010 Freeware Edition

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Description:

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Tomiahonen Almanac 2010 Freeware Edition

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Published opinions on the TomiAhonen Almanac: "Whenever I need a stat, Tomi seems to have it, so I'd highly recommend

Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2010

Copyright Tomi T Ahonen 2010

Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2010

Copyright 2010, 2012 TomiAhonen Consulting www.tomiahonen.com

Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2010

Copyright Tomi T Ahonen 2010

Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2010

Copyright Tomi T Ahonen 2010

Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2010

Copyright Tomi T Ahonen 2010

Preface to Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2010 Free Edition

Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2010

Copyright Tomi T Ahonen 2010

Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2010

Copyright Tomi T Ahonen 2010

Chapter 2 - Size of the Industry

Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2010

Copyright Tomi T Ahonen 2010

Chapter 2 - Size of the Industry

Chapter 2 - Size of the Industry

Mobile Industry Revenues 2009 & 2008

Source: TomiAhonen Almanac 2010

Chapter 2 - Size of the Industry

Source: TomiAhonen Almanac 2010

Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2010

Copyright Tomi T Ahonen 2010

Chapter 2 - Size of the Industry

Chapter 2 - Size of the Industry

Chapter 2 - Size of the Industry

Source: TomiAhonen Almanac 2010

Chapter 2 - Size of the Industry

Chapter 2 - Size of the Industry

Chapter 2 - Size of the Industry

Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2010

Copyright Tomi T Ahonen 2010

Chapter 2 - Size of the Industry

Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2010

Copyright Tomi T Ahonen 2010

Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2010

Copyright Tomi T Ahonen 2010

Total Subscribers Phones in Use Unique Owners

Source: TomiAhonen Almanac 2010

Source: TomiAhonen Almanac 2010

Mobile Customers 2009 & 2008

Source: TomiAhonen Almanac 2010

Source: TomiAhonen Almanac 2010

30 Minute Tasks and 30 Second Tasks

Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2010

Copyright Tomi T Ahonen 2010

Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2010

Copyright Tomi T Ahonen 2010

Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2010

Copyright Tomi T Ahonen 2010

Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2010

Copyright Tomi T Ahonen 2010

New Phone Handset Sales 2009

Source: TomiAhonen Almanac 2010

New Phone Sales by Generation

Source: TomiAhonen Almanac 2010

Features of Installed Base 2009 and 2008

Cameraphone Sales 2001-2009

Source: TomiAhonen Almanac 2010