Memorandum To: From: Date: Re: Doug Holtz-Eakin, American Action Forum Wes Anderson September 30, 2013 Battleground Survey

– The CR Fight & Obamacare

METHODOLOGY The following survey was commissioned by American Action Forum and conducted by OnMessage Inc. within 18 congressional districts. Telephone interviews were conducted September 25-26, 2013. This survey consists of 1,200 likely voters. Interviews were stratified by previous election results to reflect historic voter trends. The margin of error for this survey is +/- 2.82%. We recently came out of the field with a survey for American Action Forum of 18 congressional districts across the United States. These districts were broken into three groups to gain an understanding of the views of different parts of the population. The groupings were as follows: conservative districts (PVI from R+6 to R+10), districts held by Republicans where Romney garnered less than 47% (R in D seatsPVI from D+1 to D+3), and pure swing districts (PVI from D+1 to R+1). Key Findings A strong majority of voters in the battle ground now oppose Obamacare. More importantly, a majority of voters in the swing districts and 60% of Independents now oppose Obamacare.
Based on everything that you have seen, read and heard, do you favor or oppose President Obama’s health care law, also known as Obamacare? (IF FAVOR/OPPOSE, ASK: And would you say you strongly favor/oppose or just somewhat favor/oppose?) 36% 22% 14% 57% 46% 10% 7% TOTAL FAVOR Strongly Favor Somewhat Favor TOTAL OPPOSE Strongly Oppose Somewhat Oppose DK/Refused (DO NOT READ) GOP 6 90 Ind 33 60 Dem 74 17 Con Dist 27 66 GOP in D 39 54 Swing 44 50

Total Favor Total Oppose

Fifty-five percent of respondents say they would favor Republican efforts to delay the individual mandate by one year through the Continuing Resolution. Again, the strength of this effort is broad, with 52% of the voters in swing districts favoring the one year delay in the individual mandate.
As you may know, the Obama Administration has delayed for one year the provision in Obamacare that mandates that companies provide healthcare for their employees. However, the Obama Administration has not delayed the individual mandate that requires all adults to buy health insurance or pay a penalty. Some Republican Congressmen want to include a provision in the government funding bill to delay the Obamacare individual mandate for one year. Do you favor or oppose Republican efforts to use the funding bill to delay the Obamacare individual mandate? (IF FAVOR/OPPOSE, ASK: And would you say you strongly favor/oppose or just somewhat favor/oppose?) 55% 38% 17% 35% 24% 11% 10% TOTAL FAVOR Strongly Favor Somewhat Favor TOTAL OPPOSE Strongly Oppose Somewhat Oppose DK/Refused (DO NOT READ) GOP 81 11 Ind 56 31 Dem 26 67 Con Dist 62 28 GOP in D 51 37 Swing 52 40

Total Favor Total Oppose

When asked about the appropriateness of negotiating spending in reference to the CR, voters side with Republicans by a five point margin. This question certainly polarizes along party lines. That said, it should be noted that the question remains very close in both the GOP in D and Swing districts.
Thinking about the bill to fund the government and keep it from shutting down, which of the following statements comes closest to your opinion? (ROTATE) 43% Republican leaders in the House say its right to use every opportunity Congress has to defund or delay Obamacare and Democrats are the ones threatening to shut down the government because they refuse any negotiations over delaying or fixing Obamacare. Democrat leaders in the Senate say Republicans should pass a clean funding bill instead of threatening to shut down the government over funding Obamacare, which would delay checks to seniors, veterans and active military personnel. Both (DO NOT READ) Neither (DO NOT READ) DK/Refused (DO NOT READ) GOP 73 11 Ind 39 34 Dem 13 72 Con Dist 48 32 GOP in D 43 41 Swing 37 42

38%

4% 7% 9%

Republicans say Democrats say

Conclusion While the potential of a government shutdown is likely to consume much of the news this week it’s important to remember that Obamacare continues to become less popular by the day. In addition, a strong majority of the voters in the battleground favor a one year delay of the individual mandate. Clearly most voters see such a delay as nothing more than common sense given the fact that the Administration has already delayed the corporate mandate.
Wes Anderson is a leading GOP pollster with 20 years of experience in opinion research. As a founding partner, Wes now leads the polling divisions of OnMessage Inc. and OnMessage Sports, providing political and corporate clients with a full spectrum of quantitative and qualitative opinion research products. You can read more about Wes Anderson at onmessageinc.com.

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