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THE CITY MAGAZINE

june 2009 ART • INTERIORS • FASHION • MOTORING • BEAUTY • SHOPPING • BUSINESS • TECHNOLOGY • FOOD & DRINK • UK & INTERNATIONAL PROPERTY
june 2009 issue 20

ECological Recession
green debt peaks
Grand Millennium Hotels
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OMANI OPULENCE
Our guide to holidays in Muscat
ALL THAT SPARKLES
Coutts London Jewellery Week
HOT PROPERTY
UK & international

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20
NEW BULL MARKET IN SHARES
OR JUST A LOAD OF OLD BULL?
Are the good times on their way back? The S&P 500 has continued
to rally and the general feeling is that ‘the worst is over’

T
he last few weeks has seen an very pessimistic. Of course, shorter term This rally started with the US Financial
impressive run up in the global traders can profit from these moves; I did stocks reporting better than expected
equity markets, the S&P 500 has very well from trading Bank Of America earnings, I use the word earnings loosely
gained over 37% since the March during this rally, a stock which I think is as if it was not for the government bailouts
market lows and the general feeling is that ‘the now a long term disaster but I was happy (TARP) money, most of these financial
worst is over’ and the good times are back. to ride if for a few weeks and make over companies would be bankrupt today.
100% profit. I will most likely be short Also many one-off items and accounting
Before I go any further and give you my again and ride the stock down again in changes helped to make these banks look far
reading on the current situation, let me the coming months. Goldman Sachs was stronger than they really are. This has bought
say that I am not a bull or bear; I don’t get another profitable trade moving for $74 to the financials some time, but what about the
paid to sell shares, I don’t have to give the $140 in the space of just over a month. next quarter – and the one after that?
mainstream view, and I am not a doom
and gloom merchant. I trade markets both We are now moving into the seasonally Another factor helping markets and the
long and short and I am happy to switch weaker time of the year and this lasts banks is the near 0% interest rates around
between the two; nor do I just trade stocks until around mid October before we see the globe. Many are putting money back
– I am happy to trade stocks, commodities, a traditional year-end rally. What we may into the stock market because keeping
currencies and bonds. For example, I am see between now and that time is a lot of money in cash is providing negative
currently short T Bonds, long Sugar, long range trading for major indices. There is a returns if you account for inflation.
Cotton, short Cocoa, long the Canadian high probability that the S&P 500 will go
Dollar, long NASDAQ 100 and short Yen to back to reach the March lows again before For the next few months the best
name a few trades. 2009 is out; this could happen around opportunities could be in soft and
September to October as the reality sinks agricultural commodities as well as
My aim is to stick to the facts of what in that quick fixes don’t last! looking at individual shares both long and
I see is happening, rather than emotions short, and ignoring the over all indices.
and what many think should happen. Many of the soft commodities have come
The overall trend for most global stock Many are puTTing back to life such as Soyabeans, Cotton
markets has been, and is still down; if we Money back inTo The and Sugar. There has been little interest in
look at the S&P 500 it would have to close sTock MarkeT because commodities apart from Oil and Gold over
at over 1200 for a long term buy signal to keeping Money in cash the last few months. Many were burnt
be given and we are quite a way off from is providing negaTive from the massive falls last summer and are
this at the moment (currently 900). The reTurns if you accounT in no hurry to get back in. However, this is
FTSE 100 would have to close over 5200 where I see opportunities. n
for inflaTion
to give a buy a signal.

What we have witnessed is a classic The idea that the March low was a
bear market rally – these up moves suck bottom and we are now just going to go Vince Stanzione has produced a home study
new buyers back into the market and straight up is not what happens in the real course to teach private investors how to
allow the smart money to sell out. This world. From experience, lows take time benefit from trading financial Spread Bets and
rally started as they always do, when the to form with lots of false starts which will Fixed Odds. For more information please visit
majority doesn’t expect them, and are cause maximum pain for most investors. www.fintrader.info
events 113
what'son Our guide to this
rd_dec shirt
month’s top events company.qxp 04/11/2008 11:24 Page 1

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CHARLOTTE STREET FESTIVAL The perfect white
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5-14 June 7-11 June
EVENT EVENT
OLYMPIA INTERNATIONAL ART GRADUATE FASHION WEEK
& ANTIQUES FAIR The biggest showcase of young and
This is the largest international art and up-and-coming fashion and design
antiques fair, and brings together 250 talent; this year Graduate Fashion
of the world’s best dealers and galleries Week will feature more than a 1000 of
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of unique pieces such as Art Deco from over 50 universities. This is one
jewellery, old masters and a diverse of the few fashion events open to the
range of furniture. public.
Olympia Way Warwick Road
London W14 8UX London
www.olympiaartsinternational.com SW5 9TA
08705 125 240
www.gfw.org.uk

8 – 14 June 9-12 June
EVENT EVENT
COUTTS LONDON JEWELLERY CRAFT CENTRAL
WEEK Celebrate Coutts London Jewellery
Discover the beautiful and glamorous Week at Craft central with an exhibition
world of jewellery. Coutts London featuring 15 shining jewellery talents.
Jewellery Week has a whole host You can also mingle with the designers
of events going on across London at the informal ‘Meet the Maker’ event.
to celebrate jewellery, jewellers and 33-35 St John’s Square, EC1M 4DS
designers. Highlights includes: the 020 7251 0276
Hatton Garden Festival (13 June) and www.craftcentral.org.uk
Treasure, an event that will showcase
the best of visionary design, cutting
edge technology and new talent.
www.londonjewelleryweek.co.uk