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From: GBA Strategies Date: September 27, 2013

Katherine Clark Expands Lead in MA5 Primary
With less than three weeks until the October 15th special election, State Senator Katherine Clark is in a strong position to become the Democratic nominee from Massachusetts’ 5th congressional district. In a new poll of 500 likely voters conducted using live dialers, reaching voters on cell phones and landlines, Clark leads with 27 percent of the vote, while no other candidate is above 20 percent. Clark has led in every single poll conducted by every pollster in this race, but the new poll shows her lead has grown and is now well outside of the poll’s 4.4 percentage point margin of error. June 11-15 Katherine Clark Karen Spilka Peter Koutoujian Carl Sciortino Will Brownsberger Undecided/Other 18 14 12 5 11 39 September 23-25 27 18 16 15 12 12

Key Findings • Katherine Clark has taken a clear lead in the race and leads with every key demographic. With a 9-point lead, Katherine is in a strong position to prevail on October 15th. Katherine wins 30 percent of the vote among registered Democrats, 13 points higher than Carl Sciortino and Karen Spilka (each at 17 percent). Clark also leads among unaffiliated voters with 22 percent, followed by Karen Spilka at 20 percent. Clark leads by 8 points among liberals with 28 percent and by 9 points among voters who voted in at least 3 of the last 4 primary elections (2013, 2010, 2009, 2008) with 28 percent. Katherine leads among women with 32 percent (Spilka trails badly at 19 percent) and among men with 21 percent (Koutoujian is next at 19 percent).

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Katherine Clark Expands Lead in MA5 Primary Katherine Clark enjoys the best favorability ratings of any candidate in the race. The more voters see Katherine, the more they like her – her favorability improved from 18 – 5 percent favorable – unfavorable in June to 46 – 11 percent favorable – unfavorable now. Katherine’s favorables are at least 10 points higher than every other candidate: Spilka (36 – 10 percent favorable – unfavorable), Sciortino (34 – 12 percent favorable – unfavorable), Koutoujian (32 – 14 percent favorable – unfavorable) and Brownsberger (28 – 15 percent favorable – unfavorable). Among voters who can identify Katherine, she leads overwhelmingly with 38 percent of the vote, while Koutoujian and Sciortino receive just 17 percent each and Spilka and Brownsberger receive 11 and 10 percent, respectively.

Methodology Both polls were conducted by live dialers, reaching voters on cell phones and landlines. Each poll included 500 randomly selected likely voters. Each poll carries a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level. The first poll was conducted June 1115. The second poll was conducted September 23-25.

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