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Interested Parties From: The Parkside Group, LLC Date: September 30, 2013 Re: 2013 Casino Gaming Referendum At the request of members of the NY Jobs Now coalition, The Parkside Group conducted a poll to survey attitudes of likely voters in the 2013 General Election. Key findings of this survey include: Voters support the gaming referendum. When exposed to information about the referendum on this year’s ballot, including the stated legislative purposes of promoting job growth, increasing school aid, and permitting local governments to reduce property taxes, a majority of voters support passage, by a 16-‐point margin (51% Yes/35% No). Referendum Support Yes No Undecided Refused Totals Total 51% 35% 13% 1% 100% Suburbs 58% 28% 14% 1% 100% NYC 52% 31% 16% 1% 100% Upstate 45% 44% 11% 0% 100%
The road to success. A well-‐funded, well-‐executed campaign should prevail and propel the referendum to passage on November 5th. The survey shows room for growth in the five boroughs, where support from a very popular Governor and Democratic nominee for Mayor, along with the active participation of labor unions, can transform remaining undecided voters into supporters of the referendum. Residents of the New York City suburbs are the most consistent supporters of the referendum, which, as noted below, have a number of competitive races this year and where turnout should be relatively high. Holding support for the referendum in the suburbs is, therefore, a key strategic imperative for the campaign.
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While support for the referendum is not as strong in upstate counties, the messaging around job creation and property tax relief resonates strongly with voters in this region. Governor Andrew Cuomo enjoys strong support. Governor Andrew Cuomo’s statewide favorability is positive by a 2-‐1 margin and he has a positive job approval rating.1 Statewide, his personal popularity is 66% favorable/32% unfavorable. As noted in the chart below, he enjoys broad support in every region of the state and is exceptionally popular in New York City. Cuomo Favorability Total Favorable Total Unfavorable Don't Know/Refused Totals Total 66% 32% 3% 100% Suburbs 67% 30% 2% 100% NYC 78% 19% 3% 100% Upstate 53% 46% 2% 100%
The Governor’s job approval rating statewide is 55% positive/44% negative. In New York City and its surrounding areas, the Governor is even stronger. His job approval is rated most favorably in New York City (68% positive) and on Long Island (63% positive). With major races this year for New York City Mayor, Nassau County Executive, Westchester County Executive, Orange County Executive, and Rockland County Executive, the Governor’s popularity within these high-‐ turnout counties will be important to passage of the referendum. Bill de Blasio is well-‐known and well-‐liked in New York City. Among likely 2013 General election voters in the City of New York, Bill de Blasio is known by 90% of respondents. His favorable rating is 69%, which dwarfs his 21% unfavorable rating. Because of his strong personal popularity, and recent public polling showing him with a commanding lead in the race for Mayor, his endorsement of the referendum’s passage should benefit proponents in November. A note about methodology. The poll was conducted September 20-‐23, 2013 among 1,000 likely General Election voters. At the 95% confidence level, the margin of error in the survey is 3.1%. The margin of error is higher among sub-‐groups. This survey was drawn from a sample of voters with a history of voting in odd-‐year elections. In addition, screening questions were employed to identify those voters in the sample most likely to vote this November.
These findings reflect a 2013 likely voter electorate. Since odd-‐year electorates tend to be older and less diverse, they typically are tougher environments for Democrats than even-‐year electorates. Accordingly, it is reasonable to conclude that a poll of 2014 likely voters would yield even stronger support for the Governor.