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Objectives: Students will: Define what is meant by a random variable. Define a discrete random variable. Define a continuous random variable. Explain what is meant by the probability distribution for a random variable. Explain what is meant by the law of large numbers. Calculate the mean and variance of a discrete random variable. Calculate the mean and variance of distributions formed by combining two random variables. AP Outline Fit: III. Anticipating Patterns: Exploring random phenomena using probability and simulation (20%30%) A. Probability 2. Law of Large Numbers concept 4. Discrete random variables and their probability distributions, including binomial and geometric 6. Mean (expected value) and standard deviation of a random variable, and linear transformation of a random variable B. Combining independent random variables 1. Notion of independence versus dependence 2. Mean and standard deviation for sums and differences of independent random variables What you will learn: A. Random Variables 1. Recognize and define a discrete random variable, and construct a probability distribution table and a probability histogram for the random variable. 2. Recognize and define a continuous random variable, and determine probabilities of events as areas under density curves. 3. Given a Normal random variable, use the standard Normal table or a graphing calculator to find probabilities of events as areas under the standard Normal distribution curve. B. Means and Variances of Random Variables 1. Calculate the mean and variance of a discrete random variable. Find the expected payout in a raffle or similar game of chance. 2. Use simulation methods and the law of large numbers to approximate the mean of a distribution. 3. Use rules for means and rules for variances to solve problems involving sums, differences, and linear combinations of random variables.

Knowledge Objectives: Students will: Define what is meant by a random variable. Construction Objectives: none Vocabulary: Random Variable a variable whose numerical outcome is a random phenomenon Discrete Random Variable has a countable number of random possible values Probability Histogram histogram of discrete outcomes versus their probabilities of occurrence Continuous Random Variable has a uncountable number (an interval) of random possible values Probability Distribution is a probability density curve Key Concepts: All the rules of probability apply to both discrete and continuous random variables All continuous probability distributions assign probability 0 to every individual outcome All Normal distributions are continuous probability distributions Note: Math Symbol > < = At least More than Fewer than No more than Exactly Phrases No less than Greater than or equal to Greater than Less than At most Less than or equal to Equals Is

Chapter 7: Random Variables Section 7.1: Discrete and Continuous Random Variables

Knowledge Objectives: Students will: Define a discrete random variable. Explain what is meant by a probability distribution. Explain what is meant by a uniform distribution. Construction Objectives: Students will be able to: Construct the probability distribution for a discrete random variable. Given a probability distribution for a discrete random variable, construct a probability histogram. Review: define a density curve. Define a continuous random variable and a probability distribution for a continuous random variable. Vocabulary: Random Variable a variable whose numerical outcome is a random phenomenon Discrete Random Variable has a countable number of random possible values Probability Histogram histogram of discrete outcomes versus their probabilities of occurrence Continuous Random Variable has a uncountable number (an interval) of random possible values Probability Distribution is a probability density curve Key Concepts: Discrete Random Variable Variables values follow a probabilistic phenomenon Values are countable Distributions that we will study On AP Test Not on AP Uniform Poisson Binomial Negative Binomial Geometric Hypergeometric Continuous Random Variable Variables values follow a probabilistic phenomenon Values are uncountable (infinite) P(X = any value) = 0 (area under curve at a point) Distributions that we will study Uniform Normal

Example 1: Write the following in probability format: A. Exactly 6 bulbs are red B. C. D. E. Fewer than 4 bulbs were blue At least 2 bulbs were white No more than 5 bulbs were purple More than 3 bulbs were green

Example 2: Verify Benfords Law as a probability model 1 P(x) 0.301 2 0.176 3 0.125 4 0.097 5 0.079 6 0.067 7 0.058 8 0.051 9 0.046

Use Benfords Law to determine a) the probability that a randomly selected first digit is 1 or 2 b) the probability that a randomly selected first digit is at least 6

Example 3: Write the following in probability format with discrete RV (25 colored bulbs): A. Exactly 6 bulbs are red B. C. D. E. Fewer than 4 bulbs were blue At least 2 bulbs were white No more than 5 bulbs were purple More than 3 bulbs were green

Example 4: Determine the probability of the following random number generator: A. Generating a number equal to 0.5 B. Generating a number less than 0.5 or greater than 0.8 C. Generating a number bigger than 0.3 but less than 0.7

Example 5: In a survey the mean percentage of students who said that they would turn in a classmate they saw cheating on a test is distributed N(0.12, 0.016). If the survey has a margin of error of 2%, find the probability that the survey misses the percentage by more than 2% [P(x<0.1 or x>0.14)]

Homework: Day 1: pg 469 470, 7.1 7.6 Day 2: pg 475 476, 7.7, 7.8;

Chapter 7: Random Variables Section 7.2: Means and Variances of Random Variables

Knowledge Objectives: Students will: Define what is meant by the mean of a random variable. Explain what is meant by a probability distribution. Explain what is meant by a uniform distribution. Discuss the shape of a linear combination of independent Normal random variables. Construction Objectives: Students will be able to: Calculate the mean of a discrete random variable. Calculate the variance and standard deviation of a discrete random variable. Explain, and illustrate with an example, what is meant by the law of large numbers. Explain what is meant by the law of small numbers. Given x and y, calculate a+bx, and x+y. Given x and y, calculate 2a+bx, and 2x+y (where x and y are independent). Explain how standard deviations are calculated when combining random variables. Vocabulary: Mean balance point of the probability histogram or density curve. Symbol: x Standard Deviation square root of the variance. Symbol: x Variance is the average squared deviation of the values of the variable from their mean. Symbol: x Key Concepts: Law of Large Numbers: the average of the values of X observed in many trials must approach Mean value of a Discrete Random Variable: The mean of a discrete random variable is given by the formula x = [x P(x)] where x is the value of the random variable and P(x) is the probability of observing x Interpretation of the Mean of a Discrete Random Variable: If we run an experiment over and over again, the law of large numbers helps us conclude that the difference between x and ux gets closer to 0 as n (number of repetitions) increases Variance and Standard Deviation of a Discrete Random Variable: The variance of a discrete random variable is given by: 2x = [(x x)2 P(x)] = [x2 P(x)] 2x and standard deviation is 2

Note: round the mean, variance and standard deviation to one more decimal place than the values of the random variable Any linear combination of independent Normal random variables is also normally distributed

Example 1: You have a fair 10-sided die with the number 1 to 10 on each of the faces. Determine the mean and standard deviation.

Example 2: Below is a distribution for number of visits to a dentist in one year. x P(x) 0 .1 1 .3 2 .4 3 .15 4 .05 X = # of visits to a dentist

Example 3: What is the average size of an American family? Here is the distribution of family size according to the 1990 Census: # in family Probability 2 .413 3 .236 4 .211 5 .090 6 .032 7 .018

Example 4: A car owner cannot decide whether to take out a $250 deductible which will cost him $90 per year. Records show that for his community the average cost of repair is $900. Records also show that 10% of the drivers have an accident during the year. If this driver has sufficient assets so that he will not be financially handicapped if he were to pay out the $900 or more for repairs, should he buy the policy?

Example 1: Scores on a Math test have a distribution with = 519 and = 115. Scores on an English test have a distribution with = 507 and = 111. If we combine the scores a) what is the combined mean?

Example 2: Suppose you earn $12/hour tutoring but spend $8/hour on dance lessons. You save the difference between what you earn and the cost of your lessons. The number of hours you spend on each activity is independent. Find your expected weekly savings and the standard deviation of your weekly savings. Hrs Dancing / week Probability 0 0.4 1 0.3 2 0.3 Hrs Tutoring / week Probability 1 0.3 2 0.3 3 0.2 4 0.2

Example 3: Toms score for a round of golf has a N(110,10) distribution and Georges score for a round of golf has a N(100,8) distribution. If they play independently, what is the probability that Tom will have a better (lower) score than George?

Objectives: Students will be able to: Summarize the chapter Define the vocabulary used Know and be able to discuss all sectional knowledge objectives Complete all sectional construction objectives Successfully answer any of the review exercises Vocabulary: None new A random variable defines what is counted (discrete) or measured (continuous) in a statistics application. If the random variable X is a count, like the number of heads in 10 tosses of a coin, then X is discrete and its distribution can be pictured as a histogram. If Y is the number of inches of rainfall in Marion VA in November, then Y is continuous and its distribution is pictured as a density curve. We will study several discrete distributions in the next chapter and among the continuous random variables; the Normal random variable is the most important. Mean and variance of a random variable are calculated based on the rules that are summarized on the next page.

a+bX = a + b X or E (a + bX ) = a + b E ( X )

2 2 2 a or V (a + bX ) = b 2 V (X ) +bX = b X

a+bX = b X

E ( X + Y ) = E ( X ) + E (Y ) E ( X Y ) = E ( X ) E (Y ) E (aX + bY + c) = a E ( X ) + b E (Y ) + c

V ( X + Y ) = V ( X ) + V (Y ) V ( X Y ) = V ( X ) + V (Y )

so

2 2 2 X +Y = X + Y 2 2 2 X Y = X + Y

and

2 2 X +Y = X + Y 2 2 X Y = X + Y

so

and

V (aX + bY + c) = a 2V ( X ) + b 2V (Y )

so

2 2 aX +bY +c = a 2 X + b 2 Y

Note that V ( X

Y ) = V (1 X + ( 1) Y ) = 12 V ( X ) + ( 1) 2 V (Y ) = V ( X ) + V (Y )

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