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M E M O R A N D UM

TO: FROM: SUBJECT: DATE:

INTERESTED PARTIES CHRIS PERKINS TEXAS’ 25TH SENATE DISTRICT REPUBLICAN PRIMARY OCTOBER 4, 2013

The following memo highlights the key findings from a survey of likely Republican Primary voters in Texas’ 25th Senate District that shows incumbent Senator Donna Campbell has a strong job approval rating and a significant lead on the ballot in a three-way race.

Methodology
Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research conducted a study of likely Republican Primary Voters in Texas’ 25th Senate District. Respondents were screened to ensure that they were neither a member of the news media nor a public relations company. The sample for this survey was stratified based on gender, age, and geography. This methodology allows us to minimize post-survey “weighting” which can reduce the reliability of survey results. Respondents were contacted by phone via a live telephone operator interview September 1011, 2013. The study has a sample size of 300 likely Republican Primary voters in Texas’ 25th Senate District with a margin of error of ±5.7%.

Key Findings
 A majority of likely GOP Primary voters approve of Senator Campbell’s job performance. o The question was asked, “Would you say you approve or disapprove of the job Donna Campbell has done as State Senator?”
Likely GOP Primary Voters

Approve Disapprove

56% 17%

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© 2013 WPA Opinion Research Do not copy or distribute without permission

In a three-way race, Campbell takes nearly half of the vote. o The question was asked, “If the Republican Primary election for Texas State Senate were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Donna Campbell, Elisa Chan, and Mike Novak.”
All Likely GOP Primary Voters

Donna Campbell Elisa Chan Mike Novak Undecided o

48% 10% 7% 36%

Campbell has the support of nearly half of the likely GOP Primary voters outside of Bexar County – and the support of more than two in five of those within the District’s largest county.
Bexar County Other Counties

Donna Campbell Elisa Chan Mike Novak Undecided

44% 17% 7% 32%

49% 5% 7% 38%

Donna Campbell is a strong conservative who reflects the values and ideological beliefs of her constituents; among those with an opinion of both Campbell’s ideology and their own, 75% say Campbell is a conservative and 74% say they are conservatives. o The questions were asked, “Would you say you think of Donna Campbell as a conservative, a moderate, or a liberal in her political beliefs and actions?” and, “Would you say you are a conservative, a moderate, or a liberal in your political beliefs?”

Perceived Ideology: Donna Campbell and Likely GOP Primary Voters
100% Campbell 80% 61% Self

60%

43% 40% 32% 19% 20% 13% 0%
Very Conservative Smwht conservative Moderate

17% 3%

7%

4% 1%
Very liberal

Smwht liberal

Confidential

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10/4/2013

© 2013 WPA Opinion Research Do not copy or distribute without permission

Conclusion
In May of 2012, Donna Campbell took 34% of the Republican primary vote in a three-way contest. In less than two years, Senator Donna Campbell has increased her primary vote percentage by 14 points in a hypothetical three-way race. Senator Donna Campbell’s strong ratings and ballot support reflect the fact that likely GOP Primary voters identify her as a conservative, and a majority of the electorate are themselves conservative. Senator Campbell has a nearly five-to-one advantage over Elisa Chan, and Mike Novak is largely unknown. Campbell’s strong ballot support and favorable image rating show that she is well positioned heading into the 2014 Primary election.

About Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research
Since 1998, WPA Opinion Research has been a leading provider of political polling for campaigns from Governor and U.S. Senate to Mayor and City Council in all 50 states and several foreign countries. In 2011-2012 election cycle, even with Obama at the top of the ticket, more than 65% of WPA direct campaign clients won. In Texas, WPA Opinion Research is proud to serve as the pollster for US Senator Ted Cruz, Attorney General Greg Abbott, four current statewide elected officials and twenty five current members of the State Legislature. WPA has been nationally recognized for our efforts to provide cutting edge research to help our clients win. The American Association of Political Consultants (AAPC) awarded a “Pollie” to WPA for our work Adaptive Sampling and Predictive Analytics methodologies which allowed us to buck national GOP polling trends and deliver industry-leading results. In rankings released by Nate Silver’s fivethirtyeight.com of 2008 election data, Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research was statistically tied as the most accurate partisan pollster and found that WPA was significantly more accurate than other partisan pollsters.

Confidential

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10/4/2013

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