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MA.E.2.3.1

Strand

E

Data Analysis and Probability

Standard

2

The student identifies patterns and makes predictions from an orderly display of data using concepts of probability and statistics.

Benchmark

MA.E.2.3.1

The student compares experimental results with mathematical expectations of probabilities.

234

Grade 6 Item Type Clarification

MA.E.2.3.1 At grade 6, this benchmark will be assessed using MC items. Students will identify possible outcomes and/or compare results of experiments (empirical data) with the expected results (theoretical probabilities) of experiments. Items may include probabilities for independent and dependent events. Items involving determining all possible outcomes should not exceed 24. Mathematical expectations of probabilities will be assessed using simple empirical data or theoretical probabilities.

Content Limits

Stimulus Attributes

Items should be set in a real-world or mathematical context. Students may be presented with word problems and/or tables. Graphics should be used in at least 70% of these items.

Response Attributes

Not applicable.

235

Grade 6 Sample MC Item

MA.E.2.3.1

After using Lynn-G fertilizer for two years, Artie decided to experiment with Kwik-Gro fertilizer, which claims to make plants grow 30% taller than Lynn-G in six weeks. Artie«s graph displays the results of Kwik-Gro and his usual fertilizer, Lynn-G, for six weeks.

ARTIE'S RESULTS

Plant Height (in centimeters)

25 20 15 10 5

1 2 3 4 5 6

KEY Kwik-Gro Lynn-G

Time (in weeks)

After six weeks, how do Artie«s results compare with Kwik-Gro«s claim? A. B. C. ★ D. Artie«s results show Kwik-Gro«s claim to be true. Artie«s results show that Lynn-G works better than Kwik-Gro. Artie«s results show there is no difference between using Kwik-Gro and Lynn-G. Artie«s results show Kwik-Gro works better than Lynn-G but not as good as they claim.

Item Context: Social Studies

236

Grade 7 Item Type Benchmark Clarification

MA.E.2.3.1 At grade 7, this benchmark will be assessed using MC items. Students will identify possible outcomes and/or compare the results of experiments (empirical data) with the expected results (theoretical probabilities) of experiments. Items may include probabilities for independent and dependent events. Mathematical expectations of probabilities will be assessed using simple empirical data or theoretical probabilities.

Content Limits

Stimulus Attributes

Items should be set in a real-world context. Students may be presented with word problems and/or tables. Graphics should be used in at least 70% of these items.

Response Attributes

Not applicable.

237

Grade 7 Sample MC Item

MA.E.2.3.1 A national ice cream company conducted a survey with a random sample of 100 people to find out which flavors of ice cream people like best. The results are shown below. COMPANY ICE CREAM SURVEY Favorite Flavor Chocolate Peach Rocky Road Strawberry Vanilla Number of People 31 3 2 16 48

Beth and Stuart conducted the same survey during lunch with a sample of 25 students and got the results shown below. BETH AND STUART’S ICE CREAM SURVEY Favorite Flavor Chocolate Peach Rocky Road Strawberry Vanilla Number of People 16 1 2 1 5

If the results of Beth and Stuart’s survey had been like the national results, how many more students would have picked vanilla as their favorite ice cream? ★ A. B. C. D. 7 11 28 43 students students students students

Item Context: Health/Physical Education

238

Grade 8 Item Type Benchmark Clarification

MA.E.2.3.1 At grade 8, this benchmark will be assessed using SR items. Students will identify possible outcomes and compare and/or explain the results of experiments (empirical data) with the expected results (theoretical probabilities) of the experiment. Items may include probabilities for independent and dependent events. Mathematical expectations of probabilities will be assessed using simple empirical data or theoretical probabilities.

Content Limits

Stimulus Attributes

Items should be set in a real-world context. Students may be presented with word problems and/or tables. Graphics should be used in at least 70% of these items.

Response Attributes

Not applicable.

239

Grade 8 Sample SR Item

MA.E.2.3.1 A national newspaper surveyed a group of 9- to 13-year-old students who collect sports cards. The survey asked which type of sports cards each student collects. The table below shows the percentage of students in the newspaper survey who collect each type of card. COLLECTING SPORTS CARDS Sport Baseball Basketball Football Hockey Soccer Percentage of Students Who Collect Cards 65% 69% 53% 20% 6%

Marilyn surveyed 20 students, ages 9 to 13 years old, who collect sports cards. She asked the same question as the newspaper survey. The table below shows how many students in Marilyn’s survey collect each type of card. COLLECTING SPORTS CARDS Sport Baseball Basketball Football Hockey Soccer Number of Students Who Collect Cards 12 10 15 3 1

Did Marilyn’s survey give the same results as the newspaper survey? In the Answer Book, compare the results of Marilyn’s survey with the newspaper survey to explain your conclusion. Be sure to include at least one example from the results to support your conclusion. 240

Grade 8 In the Answer Book Explain in words.

MA.E.2.3.1

Item Context: Health/Physical Education Correct and Complete Response A correct and complete response includes a valid explanation including an example as shown below: • An explanation similar to the following: The two surveys do not give exactly the same results. In Marilyn’s survey, 50% of the students collect basketball cards as compared with 69% from the newspaper survey. • Scoring Rubric OR other valid explanation.

See Appendix D for the Short-Response Scoring Rubric.

241

Grades 6-8 BENCHMARK MA.E.2.3.2

MA.E.2.3.2

Strand

E

Data Analysis and Probability

Standard

2

The student identifies patterns and makes predictions from an orderly display of data using concepts of probability and statistics.

Benchmark

MA.E.2.3.2

The student determines odds for and odds against a given situation. This benchmark also assesses E.2.2.2.24

24

The complete text of Benchmark E.2.2.2 is “[The student] predicts the likelihood of simple events occurring.”

242

Grade 6 Item Type Benchmark Clarification

MA.E.2.3.2 At grade 6, this benchmark will be assessed using MC items. Students will determine the probability or likelihood of a simple event occurring. Items will assess the likelihood or probability of an outcome occurring. Probabilities should be expressed as fractions.

Content Limits

Stimulus Attributes Response Attributes Sample MC Item

Graphics should be used in at least 70% of these items. Not applicable. Twenty-four students in Mr. Lee’s literature class are equally likely to be assigned one of the following four categories for their next reading assignment: Historical Fiction, Mystery, Science Fiction, and Nonfiction. If the students are randomly selected, how many students are expected to be assigned a mystery novel? A. ★ B. C. D. 4 6 8 12

Item Context: Mathematics

243

Grade 7 Item Type Benchmark Clarification

MA.E.2.3.2 At grade 7, this benchmark will be assessed using MC items. Students will determine the odds for or odds against a specified outcome or the probability of a simple event occurring. Items developed for this benchmark should assess simple events. Items should be set in a real-world context. Graphics should be used in at least 30% of these items.

Content Limits

Stimulus Attributes

Response Attributes

Answer choices may use the word “to” or the symbol “:”, but not both in the same item. Answer choices for items assessing probability should be in fractional form.

Sample MC Item

Cori bought 10 apples at the grocery store. Six of them were green, 3 were red, and 1 was golden. After she got home, her brother chose an apple at random. What is the probability that he chose an apple that was NOT red? A. 1 10 3 10 4 10 7 10

B.

C.

★ D.

Item Context: Social Studies

244

Grade 8 Item Types

MA.E.2.3.2 At grade 8, this benchmark will be assessed using MC and GR items. Students will determine odds for or odds against a specific outcome, or the probability of a simple event occurring. Situations assessed may include finding the mathematical odds for and against a specified outcome. Most items developed for this benchmark should assess simple events. Compound events are limited to independent occurrences. Items assessing compound events should not exceed sixteen outcomes in a sample space. Probabilities should be based on whole numbers, fractions, or decimals, and should not include negative numbers. Items should use the phrases “odds in favor of” and “odds against.”

Benchmark Clarification

Content Limits

Stimulus Attributes

Items should be set in a real-world context. Graphics should be used in at least 30% of these items.

Response Attributes

Answer choices for items assessing odds should use the format “1 : 2” or “1 to 2”. Answer choices for items assessing probability should be in fractional or decimal form.

245

Grade 8 Sample MC Item

MA.E.2.3.2 While playing for a local baseball team, Jamal hit the ball 20 out of 30 times at bat. Based on this record, what would be the odds in favor of Jamal hitting the ball the next time he comes up to bat? A. B. ★ C. D. 3 to 2

2 to 3

2 to 1

1 to 2

Item Context: Health/Physical Education

Sample GR Item

In a group of 30 people, 27 are right-handed and the others are left-handed. If one person is selected at random from this group, what is the probability that the person selected will be left-handed?

/ / /

. . . . .

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Sample Response:

3 1 , , 0.1, .1 30 10

Item Context: Social Studies

246

Grades 6-8 BENCHMARK MA.E.3.3.1

MA.E.3.3.1

Strand

E

Data Analysis and Probability

Standard

3

The student uses statistical methods to make inferences and valid arguments about real-world situations.

Benchmark

MA.E.3.3.1

The student formulates hypotheses, designs experiments, collects and interprets data, and evaluates hypotheses by making inferences and drawing conclusions based on statistics (range, mean, median, and mode) and tables, graphs, and charts. This benchmark also assesses E.3.3.2.25

25

The complete text of Benchmark E.3.3.2 is “[The student] identifies the common uses and misuses of probability and statistical analysis in the everyday world.”

247

Grade 6 Item Type Benchmark Clarification

MA.E.3.3.1 At grade 6, this benchmark will be assessed using MC items. Students will formulate and analyze hypotheses, use statistical results, and/or identify common uses or misuses of statistical information. Common misuses of probability and statistics should be limited to: • incomplete or incorrect graphs • over-generalized results • use of raw data, percents, or statistics (range, median, mean, mode) to misrepresent the data collected • misinterpretation of the likelihood and significance of the results • Non-representative samples

Content Limits

Stimulus Attributes

Items should be set in a real-world context. Graphics should be used in at least 30% of these items.

Response Attributes

Not applicable.

248

Grade 6 Sample MC Item

MA.E.3.3.1 Joel saw a magazine ad for Tingle mouthwash that included the graph shown below. He thought the ad was misleading. TINGLE KILLS MORE GERMS

100 Percent of Germs Destroyed 90 80 Brand X Brand Y Tingle

Mouthwash Brands

Which of the following makes the graph misleading? A. B. ★ C. D. Tingle is placed last to draw attention to it. The percent of germs killed is not clearly shown for Brands X and Y. The scale was started at 80 percent to make the differences between brands seem large. Percents were used instead of the actual numbers of germs killed.

Item Context: Science

249

Grade 7 Item Type Benchmark Clarification

MA.E.3.3.1 At grade 7, this benchmark will be assessed using MC items. Students will formulate and evaluate hypotheses, use statistical results, and/or identify common uses and misuses of statistical information. Common misuses of probability and statistics should be limited to: • inadequate or non-representative sample size • incomplete or incorrect graphs • over-generalized results • over-interpretation of numerical data • use of raw data, percents, or statistics (range, median, mean, mode) to misrepresent the data collected misinterpretation of the likelihood and significance of the results Items should be set in a real-world context. Graphics should be used in at least 30% of these items.

Content Limits

Stimulus Attributes

Response Attributes Sample MC Item

Not applicable. The manager of a neighborhood park decided to ask people who use the park what new equipment would be most popular. On Monday, Wednesday, and Friday from 1:00 to 2:00 p.m., she asked visitors in the park what equipment should be added. She got 132 suggestions and concluded she should buy more swings and sandboxes. What error did the manager make in her survey? A. ★ B. C. D. The manager should have hired someone else to conduct the survey. The sample was probably biased because of narrow time limits. People should have been asked to name only one thing. She did not ask people about other facilities.

Item Context: Social Studies .

250

Grade 8 Item Types

MA.E.3.3.1 At grade 8, this benchmark will be assessed using MC and SR items. Students will design experiments, formulate or evaluate hypotheses and conclusions based on experimental situations, and/or identify common uses and misuses of statistical information. Students will recognize appropriate uses of statistics and probability in real-world situations and identify misleading uses. Items should emphasize interpretation, not collection or computation. Common misuses of probability and statistics should be limited to: • inadequate or non-representative sample size

• incomplete or incorrect graphs

• over-generalized results

• over-interpretation of numerical data

• use of raw data, percents, or statistics (range, median,

mean, mode) to misrepresent the data collected

• misinterpretation of the likelihood and significance of the

results

Benchmark Clarification

Content Limits

Stimulus Attributes

Items should be set in a real-world context. Graphics should be used in at least 30% of these items.

Response Attributes

Not applicable.

251

Grade 8 Sample MC Item

MA.E.3.3.1 As a tree ages, the trunk of the tree gets bigger. Scientists can estimate the age of a tree by measuring the distance around, or the circumference of, the tree trunk. A team of scientists believe that the trees in Florida are older than the trees in Georgia, Alabama, and Mississippi. In which of the following geographic areas should the scientists measure the circumference of 200 trees to best test their hypothesis? A. B. ★ C. D. one area of each state one area of Florida various areas of each state various areas of Florida

Item Context: Science Sample SR Item As a tree ages, the trunk of the tree gets bigger. Scientists can estimate the age of a tree by measuring the distance around, or the circumference of, the tree trunk. Scientists are conducting a study to determine whether the trees in Florida are older than the trees in Georgia, Alabama, and Mississippi. The scientists measured the circumference of 20 pine trees in one area in each of these states. The graph below shows the average circumference of the 20 trees measured. AVERAGE CIRCUMFERENCE OF 20 PINE TREES 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Alabama Florida State Do the study and data collected support the hypothesis that the trees in Florida are older than the trees in Georgia, Alabama, and Mississippi? In the Answer Book, explain in words why the study and data do or do not adequately support the hypothesis. 252

Georgia Mississippi

Inches

Grade 8 In the Answer Book Explain in words.

MA.E.3.3.1

Item Context: Science Correct and Complete Response A correct and complete response includes an answer and an explanation as shown below. • No, the hypothesis is not supported by the study and data.

AND • An explanation similar to the following: The graph shows that the average circumference of trees in Florida is slightly larger than in the other states, but the scientists only measured 20 trees of one type from only one area of each state. The sample was not random enough or large enough to support their hypothesis. • Scoring Rubric OR other valid explanation.

See Appendix D for the Short-Response Scoring Rubric.

253

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