Grades 6-8 MA.E.2.3.

BENCHMARK MA.E.2.3.1

Strand E Data Analysis and Probability

Standard 2 The student identifies patterns and makes predictions from an

orderly display of data using concepts of probability and
statistics.

Benchmark MA.E.2.3.1 The student compares experimental results with mathematical

expectations of probabilities.

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Grade 6 MA.E.2.3.1

Item Type At grade 6, this benchmark will be assessed using MC items.

Clarification Students will identify possible outcomes and/or compare

results of experiments (empirical data) with the expected
results (theoretical probabilities) of experiments.

Content Limits Items may include probabilities for independent and dependent
events.

Items involving determining all possible outcomes should not

exceed 24.

Mathematical expectations of probabilities will be assessed

using simple empirical data or theoretical probabilities.

Stimulus Attributes Items should be set in a real-world or mathematical context.

Students may be presented with word problems and/or tables.

Graphics should be used in at least 70% of these items.

Response Attributes Not applicable.

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Grade 6 MA.E.2.3.1

Sample MC Item After using Lynn-G fertilizer for two years, Artie decided to
experiment with Kwik-Gro fertilizer, which claims to make
plants grow 30% taller than Lynn-G in six weeks. Artie«s graph
displays the results of Kwik-Gro and his usual fertilizer,
Lynn-G, for six weeks.

ARTIE'S RESULTS

25 KEY
(in centimeters)

20
Height

Kwik-Gro
Plant

15
Lynn-G
10
5

1 2 3 4 5 6
Time (in weeks)

After six weeks, how do Artie«s results compare with

Kwik-Gro«s claim?

A. Artie«s results show Kwik-Gro«s claim to be true.

B. Artie«s results show that Lynn-G works better than
Kwik-Gro.
C. Artie«s results show there is no difference between
using Kwik-Gro and Lynn-G.
★ D. Artie«s results show Kwik-Gro works better than
Lynn-G but not as good as they claim.

Item Context: Social Studies

236

Grade 7 MA.E.2.3.1

Item Type At grade 7, this benchmark will be assessed using MC items.

Benchmark Clarification Students will identify possible outcomes and/or compare the
results of experiments (empirical data) with the expected
results (theoretical probabilities) of experiments.

Content Limits Items may include probabilities for independent and dependent
events.

Mathematical expectations of probabilities will be assessed

using simple empirical data or theoretical probabilities.

Stimulus Attributes Items should be set in a real-world context.

Students may be presented with word problems and/or tables.

Graphics should be used in at least 70% of these items.

Response Attributes Not applicable.

237

Grade 7 MA.E.2.3.1

Sample MC Item A national ice cream company conducted a survey with a

random sample of 100 people to find out which flavors of ice
cream people like best. The results are shown below.

COMPANY ICE CREAM SURVEY

Favorite Flavor Number of People

Chocolate 31
Peach 3
Rocky Road 2
Strawberry 16
Vanilla 48

Beth and Stuart conducted the same survey during lunch with a
sample of 25 students and got the results shown below.

BETH AND STUART’S ICE CREAM SURVEY

Favorite Flavor Number of People

Chocolate 16
Peach 1
Rocky Road 2
Strawberry 1
Vanilla 5

If the results of Beth and Stuart’s survey had been like the
national results, how many more students would have picked
vanilla as their favorite ice cream?

★ A. 7 students
B. 11 students
C. 28 students
D. 43 students

Item Context: Health/Physical Education

238

Grade 8 MA.E.2.3.1

Item Type At grade 8, this benchmark will be assessed using SR items.

Benchmark Clarification Students will identify possible outcomes and compare and/or
explain the results of experiments (empirical data) with the
expected results (theoretical probabilities) of the experiment.

Content Limits Items may include probabilities for independent and dependent
events.

Mathematical expectations of probabilities will be assessed

using simple empirical data or theoretical probabilities.

Stimulus Attributes Items should be set in a real-world context.

Students may be presented with word problems and/or tables.

Graphics should be used in at least 70% of these items.

Response Attributes Not applicable.

239

Grade 8 MA.E.2.3.1

Sample SR Item A national newspaper surveyed a group of 9- to 13-year-old

students who collect sports cards. The survey asked which type
of sports cards each student collects. The table below shows
the percentage of students in the newspaper survey who collect
each type of card.

COLLECTING SPORTS CARDS

Percentage of Students
Sport
Who Collect Cards
Baseball 65%

Basketball 69%

Football 53%

Hockey 20%

Soccer 6%

Marilyn surveyed 20 students, ages 9 to 13 years old, who

collect sports cards. She asked the same question as the
newspaper survey. The table below shows how many students
in Marilyn’s survey collect each type of card.

COLLECTING SPORTS CARDS

Number of Students
Sport
Who Collect Cards
Baseball 12
Basketball 10

Football 15

Hockey 3

Soccer 1

Did Marilyn’s survey give the same results as the newspaper

survey?

In the Answer Book, compare the results of Marilyn’s survey

with the newspaper survey to explain your conclusion. Be sure
to include at least one example from the results to support your
conclusion.

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Grade 8 MA.E.2.3.1

In the Answer Book Explain in words.

Item Context: Health/Physical Education

Correct and Complete A correct and complete response includes a valid explanation
Response including an example as shown below:

• An explanation similar to the following:

The two surveys do not give exactly the same results. In

Marilyn’s survey, 50% of the students collect basketball
cards as compared with 69% from the newspaper survey.

• OR other valid explanation.

Scoring Rubric See Appendix D for the Short-Response Scoring Rubric.

241

Grades 6-8 MA.E.2.3.2

BENCHMARK MA.E.2.3.2

Strand E Data Analysis and Probability

Standard 2 The student identifies patterns and makes predictions from an

orderly display of data using concepts of probability and
statistics.

Benchmark MA.E.2.3.2 The student determines odds for and odds against a given
situation. This benchmark also assesses E.2.2.2.24

24
The complete text of Benchmark E.2.2.2 is “[The student] predicts the likelihood of simple events occurring.”

242

Grade 6 MA.E.2.3.2

Item Type At grade 6, this benchmark will be assessed using MC items.

Benchmark Clarification Students will determine the probability or likelihood of a

simple event occurring.

Content Limits Items will assess the likelihood or probability of an outcome

occurring.

Probabilities should be expressed as fractions.

Stimulus Attributes Graphics should be used in at least 70% of these items.

Response Attributes Not applicable.

Sample MC Item Twenty-four students in Mr. Lee’s literature class are equally
likely to be assigned one of the following four categories for
their next reading assignment: Historical Fiction, Mystery,
Science Fiction, and Nonfiction. If the students are randomly
selected, how many students are expected to be assigned a
mystery novel?

A. 4
★ B. 6
C. 8
D. 12

Item Context: Mathematics

243

Grade 7 MA.E.2.3.2

Item Type At grade 7, this benchmark will be assessed using MC items.

Benchmark Clarification Students will determine the odds for or odds against a specified
outcome or the probability of a simple event occurring.

Content Limits Items developed for this benchmark should assess simple
events.

Stimulus Attributes Items should be set in a real-world context.

Graphics should be used in at least 30% of these items.

Response Attributes Answer choices may use the word “to” or the symbol “:”, but
not both in the same item.

Answer choices for items assessing probability should be in

fractional form.

Sample MC Item Cori bought 10 apples at the grocery store. Six of them were
green, 3 were red, and 1 was golden. After she got home, her
brother chose an apple at random. What is the probability that
he chose an apple that was NOT red?

1
A.
10

3
B.
10

4
C.
10

7
★ D.
10

Item Context: Social Studies

244

Grade 8 MA.E.2.3.2

Item Types At grade 8, this benchmark will be assessed using MC and GR

items.

Benchmark Clarification Students will determine odds for or odds against a specific
outcome, or the probability of a simple event occurring.

Content Limits Situations assessed may include finding the mathematical odds
for and against a specified outcome.

Most items developed for this benchmark should assess simple

events.

Compound events are limited to independent occurrences.

Items assessing compound events should not exceed sixteen

outcomes in a sample space.

Probabilities should be based on whole numbers, fractions, or

decimals, and should not include negative numbers.

Items should use the phrases “odds in favor of” and “odds
against.”

Stimulus Attributes Items should be set in a real-world context.

Graphics should be used in at least 30% of these items.

Response Attributes Answer choices for items assessing odds should use the format
“1 : 2” or “1 to 2”.

Answer choices for items assessing probability should be in

fractional or decimal form.

245

Grade 8 MA.E.2.3.2

Sample MC Item While playing for a local baseball team, Jamal hit the ball 20
out of 30 times at bat. Based on this record, what would be the
odds in favor of Jamal hitting the ball the next time he comes
up to bat?

A. 3 to 2

B. 2 to 3

★ C. 2 to 1

D. 1 to 2

Item Context: Health/Physical Education

Sample GR Item In a group of 30 people, 27 are right-handed and the others are
left-handed. If one person is selected at random from this
group, what is the probability that the person selected will be
left-handed?

/ / /
. . . . .
0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1
2 2 2 2 2
3 3 3 3 3

4 4 4 4 4

5 5 5 5 5

6 6 6 6 6

7 7 7 7 7
8 8 8 8 8
9 9 9 9 9

3 1
Sample Response: , , 0.1, .1
30 10

Item Context: Social Studies

246

Grades 6-8 MA.E.3.3.1

BENCHMARK MA.E.3.3.1

Strand E Data Analysis and Probability

Standard 3 The student uses statistical methods to make inferences and

valid arguments about real-world situations.

Benchmark MA.E.3.3.1 The student formulates hypotheses, designs experiments,

collects and interprets data, and evaluates hypotheses by
making inferences and drawing conclusions based on statistics
(range, mean, median, and mode) and tables, graphs, and
charts. This benchmark also assesses E.3.3.2.25

25
The complete text of Benchmark E.3.3.2 is “[The student] identifies the common uses and misuses of probability and
statistical analysis in the everyday world.”

247

Grade 6 MA.E.3.3.1

Item Type At grade 6, this benchmark will be assessed using MC items.

Benchmark Clarification Students will formulate and analyze hypotheses, use statistical
results, and/or identify common uses or misuses of statistical
information.

Content Limits Common misuses of probability and statistics should be limited

to:

• incomplete or incorrect graphs

• over-generalized results
• use of raw data, percents, or statistics (range, median,
mean, mode) to misrepresent the data collected
• misinterpretation of the likelihood and significance of the
results
• Non-representative samples

Stimulus Attributes Items should be set in a real-world context.

Graphics should be used in at least 30% of these items.

Response Attributes Not applicable.

248

Grade 6 MA.E.3.3.1

Sample MC Item Joel saw a magazine ad for Tingle mouthwash that included the
graph shown below. He thought the ad was misleading.

TINGLE KILLS MORE GERMS

100

Percent of Germs
90

Destroyed
80
Brand X Brand Y Tingle

Mouthwash Brands

Which of the following makes the graph misleading?

A. Tingle is placed last to draw attention to it.

B. The percent of germs killed is not clearly shown for
Brands X and Y.
★ C. The scale was started at 80 percent to make the
differences between brands seem large.
D. Percents were used instead of the actual numbers of
germs killed.

Item Context: Science

249

Grade 7 MA.E.3.3.1

Item Type At grade 7, this benchmark will be assessed using MC items.

Benchmark Clarification Students will formulate and evaluate hypotheses, use statistical
results, and/or identify common uses and misuses of statistical
information.

Content Limits Common misuses of probability and statistics should be limited

to:
• inadequate or non-representative sample size
• incomplete or incorrect graphs
• over-generalized results
• over-interpretation of numerical data
• use of raw data, percents, or statistics (range, median,
mean, mode) to misrepresent the data collected
misinterpretation of the likelihood and significance of the
results

Stimulus Attributes Items should be set in a real-world context.

Graphics should be used in at least 30% of these items.

Response Attributes Not applicable.

Sample MC Item The manager of a neighborhood park decided to ask people

who use the park what new equipment would be most popular.
On Monday, Wednesday, and Friday from 1:00 to 2:00 p.m.,
she asked visitors in the park what equipment should be added.
She got 132 suggestions and concluded she should buy more
swings and sandboxes.

What error did the manager make in her survey?

A. The manager should have hired someone else to

conduct the survey.
★ B. The sample was probably biased because of narrow
time limits.
C. People should have been asked to name only one thing.
D. She did not ask people about other facilities.

Item Context: Social Studies

.

250

Grade 8 MA.E.3.3.1

Item Types At grade 8, this benchmark will be assessed using MC and SR

items.

Benchmark Clarification Students will design experiments, formulate or evaluate

hypotheses and conclusions based on experimental situations,
and/or identify common uses and misuses of statistical
information.

Content Limits Students will recognize appropriate uses of statistics and

probability in real-world situations and identify misleading
uses.

Items should emphasize interpretation, not collection or

computation.

Common misuses of probability and statistics should be limited

to:
• inadequate or non-representative sample size

• incomplete or incorrect graphs

• over-generalized results

• over-interpretation of numerical data

• use of raw data, percents, or statistics (range, median,

mean, mode) to misrepresent the data collected

• misinterpretation of the likelihood and significance of the

results

Stimulus Attributes Items should be set in a real-world context.

Graphics should be used in at least 30% of these items.

Response Attributes Not applicable.

251

Grade 8 MA.E.3.3.1

Sample MC Item As a tree ages, the trunk of the tree gets bigger. Scientists can
estimate the age of a tree by measuring the distance around, or
the circumference of, the tree trunk. A team of scientists
believe that the trees in Florida are older than the trees in
Georgia, Alabama, and Mississippi. In which of the following
geographic areas should the scientists measure the
circumference of 200 trees to best test their hypothesis?

A. one area of each state

B. one area of Florida
★ C. various areas of each state
D. various areas of Florida

Item Context: Science

Sample SR Item As a tree ages, the trunk of the tree gets bigger. Scientists can
estimate the age of a tree by measuring the distance around, or
the circumference of, the tree trunk. Scientists are conducting a
study to determine whether the trees in Florida are older than
the trees in Georgia, Alabama, and Mississippi. The scientists
measured the circumference of 20 pine trees in one area in each
of these states. The graph below shows the average
circumference of the 20 trees measured.

AVERAGE CIRCUMFERENCE
OF 20 PINE TREES

35
30
25
Inches

20
15
10
5
0

Alabama Florida Georgia Mississippi

State
Do the study and data collected support the hypothesis that the
trees in Florida are older than the trees in Georgia, Alabama,
and Mississippi?

In the Answer Book, explain in words why the study and data
do or do not adequately support the hypothesis.

252

Grade 8 MA.E.3.3.1

In the Answer Book Explain in words.

Item Context: Science

Correct and Complete A correct and complete response includes an answer and an
Response explanation as shown below.

• No, the hypothesis is not supported by the study and data.

AND

• An explanation similar to the following:

The graph shows that the average circumference of trees in

Florida is slightly larger than in the other states, but the
scientists only measured 20 trees of one type from only one
area of each state. The sample was not random enough or
large enough to support their hypothesis.

• OR other valid explanation.

Scoring Rubric See Appendix D for the Short-Response Scoring Rubric.

253