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MEMORANDUM October 6, 2013 TO: FROM: RE: Interested Parties Jim Williams, Public Policy Polling 24 new polls show GOP

in grave danger of losing House in wake of government shutdown If the 2014 elections were held today, Republicans would be in grave danger of losing control of the House of Representatives, according to a series of 24 surveys conducted by Public Policy Polling in Republican-held House districts over the past few days. The surveys challenge the conventional wisdom that gerrymandering has put the House out of reach for Democrats. The surveys, commissioned and paid for by MoveOn.org Political Action, show Republican incumbents behind among registered voters in head-to-head contests with generic Democratic challengers in 17 districts. In four other districts, the incumbent Republican falls behind a generic Democratic candidate after respondents are told that the Republican incumbent supported the government shutdown. In only three districts do Republican incumbents best generic Democratic challengers after voters are told the incumbent supported the government shutdown. Democrats must pick up 17 seats to win control of the House. These poll results make clear that if the election were held today, such a pickup would be well within reach. The districts where a generic Democratic challenger leads prior to any information being provided about the shutdown are: CA-31, CO-06, FL-02, FL-10, FL-13, IA-03, IA-04, IL-13, KY-06, MI-01, MI-07, MI-11, NY-19, OH-14, PA-07, PA-08, WI-07

Public Policy Polling 2912 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604

Phone: 888 621-6988 Web: www.publicpolicypolling.com Email: information@publicpolicypolling.com

The districts where a generic Democratic challenger leads after voters are told the Republican incumbent supported a shutdown are: CA-10, NY-11, NY-23, VA-02 The districts where the incumbent Republican leads in both head-to-head ballot tests are: CA-21, NV-03, OH-06 Unsurprisingly, majorities of respondents in every poll indicated that they "oppose Congress shutting down major activities of the federal government as a way to stop the health care law from being put into place." The snap polls of registered voters were conducted on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, with sample sizes ranging from 600-700 voters. Click here to view a snapshot of the results. Full results from each district follow.

Public Policy Polling 2912 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604

Phone: 888 621-6988 Web: www.publicpolicypolling.com Email: information@publicpolicypolling.com

CA-10 See Poll Details CA-21 See Poll Details CA-31 See Poll Details CO-06 See Poll Details FL-02 See Poll Details FL-10 See Poll Details FL-13 See Poll Details IA-03 See Poll Details IA-04 See Poll Details KY-06 See Poll Details IL-13 See Poll Details MI-01 See Poll Details MI-07 See Poll Details MI-11 See Poll Details NV-03 See Poll Details NY-11 See Poll Details NY-19 See Poll Details NY-23 See Poll Details OH-06 See Poll Details OH-14 See Poll Details PA-07 See Poll Details PA-08 See Poll Details VA-02 See Poll Details WI-07 See Poll Details

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Public Policy Polling 2912 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604

Phone: 888 621-6988 Web: www.publicpolicypolling.com Email: information@publicpolicypolling.com