February 2008/ 007
Bears are just as lovable as the bulls. Neither must be feared by anyone, least of all the investors. There are umpteen examples of millionaire investors who have made money in a bearish market. This issue has an article on stock market fuddy-duddies who allow fear to overtake their abilities to make money in the market. This article gives some vital tips on the difference between what is convenient and what is right. This issue reaches you in a week that is known as the 'valentine week'. So what could be better than to include a poem that the poet has dedicated to his wife. I am sure you all will enjoy reading this poem that is in Hindi. A very interesting thing happened as I was walking towards Gulab Bhavan this morning. There was an office-goer putting his motor-bike on the stand. After the bike was parked, he noticed that it was jutting ahead of the line of two-wheelers parked there. so he simply went to the rear of his bike and started pulling it backwards. it was hard work and could be damaging to the stand too. I stopped and told him: ‘Listen, in the first place you must position your bike correctly and then park. If you realise it late, don’t yank it so violently... just take it off the stand, align, and re-park. Simple.’ This has a few lessons for us all... No, I will not talk of the lessons right now... you will have to wait for the next issue where I will convert this incident into an article. Happy reading. Happy valentine’s day!
The above is a chart of the weekly search-term share of internet-traffic to all categories for valentine’s day. It shows enthusiastic demand for poetry. This is the reason for including the above poem for you all!
“You have to think for yourself. It always amazes me how high-IQ people mindlessly imitate. I never get good ideas talking to other people.” - Warren Buffett
A small newsletter that reads big!
Should I define fuddy-duddy right now or wait until you’ve read
this article? Hmmm… let me give you the meaning right away because I know that if you still do not go through the entire article you have a pretty high probability of being somewhat like a fuddy-duddy yourself. Simple, isn’t it? Well, the guy who sticks to investing only during bullish times feels like a hopeless fuddyduddy... a loser and a chump. This kind of investor looks for value in the stock market – and can’t find a thing. As compared to those who will analyse the market differently and brace themselves for more investing, this ‘fuddy-duddy’ will simply get into introspective depression and blame the entire economy for all that is happening. The recent market volatility may yet continue, and we can't know what will happen in any given day or even week. However, given the strong stimulative nature of the expected new equity stimulus packages, it is believed that we are close to a market bottom rather than at the start of a bear market. It pays to be naturally conservative; just prefer to take a sizeable profit whenever it presents itself. That is one beautiful way of not being a market fuddy-duddy! Why should you worry about short-term opportunities like these? Why not just stick with your long-term positions? The reason is that you can make bigger returns. The rally in
stocks... and they seem like geniuses! Get in the swing of things... buy a new house (a metaphor for investing wisely and timely in stocks); just claim that you earn more than you really do...and don’t worry, the appraiser will go along...and you’ll be able to borrow as much as you want. Then, you can ‘take out equity’ just like everyone else. When the time comes for the correction... you, as an investor, will not look like such a dope after all. Always and everywhere, you can do what seems convenient...or you can do what is right. Sometimes it is hard to tell which is which; often it is not. When the Japanese invaded China in World War II they used water-boarding against their prisoners – holding them under dirty, soapy water until they were obliged to breathe the water into their lungs. Then, they hauled them out, punched the water out of them...and laughed at their prisoners gasping on the floor. What useful information they got from their victims, we don’t know...but we have no doubt that they justified their tortures with the familiar excuse: it was useful. In that same inglorious epoch, the Germans and the Soviets both invaded Poland. The poor Poles were doomed. The Bolsheviks rounded up the Polish officers and systematically murdered them... and then tried to pin it on the Nazis. It wasn’t a very nice thing to do, but it would have been damned inconvenient to allow those officers to live... and possibly pose a danger to Soviet control later on. Likewise, the Germans went to work on the Poles on their side of the frontier... and later in all of Poland. They rounded up the communists... the trade unionists... the religious leaders... the Jews... and the troublemakers. They did not hold back from torture either – not if it might save the lives of German soldiers! Then, they moved on – to murdering millions. The magic sutra of making it big in the world of wealth in the stock market is to wait for the right opportunity to strike! Once you allow yourself to do what is convenient... instead of doing what is right... you are on the road to Hell. Take the right step at the right time and avoid being a stock market fuddy-duddy! An article by Arvind Passey ©
ARE YOU A STOCK MARKET FUDDY-DUDDY
fin ancials will continue for a few more weeks. Expect plenty more opportunities like this in the weeks ahead. Pay attention to every little opportunity, analyse the movements, and try to scoop out opportunities in certain stocks, including financials – as well as those that will do well once this mini-financial rally ends. Let us all understand that in the long run, it pays to save your money... make your investments carefully... work hard and avoid unnecessary spending. Capitalism does ensure a reward for you. It is a ‘system’ that rewards virtue...and punishes lapses of judgment. But there are times when it seems like lapses of judgment pay off. When prices run up you begin to seem like a bit of a fool if you stay out of it. It is as if a wild party was going on down the block... you feel left out if you don’t go. And the people who are having the best time are the people who have let themselves go. They’re drinking hard... and dancing on the tables. They buy houses they can’t afford... and make money when prices rise. They buy subprime debt... and earn higher yields than more solid credits. They speculate on Chinese
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