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You are on page 1of 4

Marcia Schafgans

September 2013

(For questions 1 and 2) The event "my father-in-law called my wife" can be described as a Poisson

event with hazard rate `

F

= 1 week

1

. The event "my mother-in-law called my wife" can be described

as a Poisson event with hazard rate `

M

= 2 week

1

.

1. The event "my father-in-law called my wife" can be described as a Poisson event because:

(a) his behavior is absolutely random: he calls her on average once a week, but the likelihood of

him calling at a given time t does not depend on when he called last time he may spend

a month without calling her.

(b) his behavior is absolutely random: he calls her every week, but any time in the week is

equally likely to be awarded with his call.

(c) he is very methodic and calls her every week exactly at the same weekday and time.

(d) the probability that he will call my wife is decreasing as a function of time.

(e) the probability that he will call my wife is increasing as a function of time.

Poisson: no memory, rate of success is constant at every single moment.

ANSWER: a

2. The probability that my home will be awarded with a call from (at least) one of my in-laws in

the next 24 hours is:

(a) 1 c

2

7

(b)

3

7

c

3

7

(c) 1 c

3

7

(d)

3

7

(e) c

2

7

`

F

=

1

7

`

M

=

2

7

So:

Pr(A

F

= 0) =

c

1=7

.(1,7)

0

0!

= c

1=7

Pr(A

M

= 0) =

c

2=7

.(2,7)

0

0!

= c

2=7

Pr(A

F

= 0 \ A

M

= 0) = Pr(A

F

= 0). Pr(A

M

= 0) = c

1=7

.c

2=7

= c

3=7

1 Pr(A

F

= 0 \ A

M

= 0) = 1 c

3=7

ANSWER: c

1

3. If A has a normal distribution with mean 0 and standard deviation 2, then 1

A

2

4

is:

(a) 0.32

(b) 0.34

(c) 0.48

(d) 0.68

(e) 0.84

Pr(A

2

4) = Pr(2 A 2) = Pr(1 7 1) ,

where 7 has a standard normal distribution. Looking up at the standard normal table, you

get the result.

ANSWER: d

4. In Banaland, there is a weekly lottery that gives every week $10,000,000 in prizes. To win, you

have to pick 6 numbers from 1 to 60 and get them all right.

10 years ago, Mr. Qwerty told me: I will bet $1 in the lottery every week until I win it or I die

(whatever happens rst). If I happen to win, I will imediately quit my job and move to a beach

house. Otherwise, I will keep living here in my town until I die. Mr. Qwerty always follows his

plans (probability: 100%). Interestingly, I got to know today that Mr. Qwerty has moved to a

beach house. The odds of winning the lottery at a given week with some random numbers is 1 in

50,000,000. So:

(a) In 10 years, he had around 520 chances to win the lottery. Given the odds of 1 in 50,000,000,

it is fair to say that he has probably not won the lottery.

(b) Mr. Qwerty did win the lottery! He has probably picked numbers that are more likely to be

drawn (e.g., 1-2-3-4-5-6 is less likely to come up than 4-15-17-28-39-53).

(c) Mr. Qwerty did win the lottery! The probability that he won the lottery 10 years ago is

smaller than the probability that he won it last week.

(d) Mr. Qwerty did win the lottery! The probability that he won the lottery 10 years ago is

equal to the probability that he won it last week.

(e) Mr. Qwerty did win the lottery! The probability that he won the lottery 10 years ago is

bigger than the probability that he won it last week.

Probability of winning the lottery with one shot: j

Probability of winning at the :

th

attempt: (1 j)

n1

j

Given that he won, probability that he won at the :

th

attempt:

(1 j)

n1

j

Pr(winning at some point)

which is maximum for : = 1.

ANSWER: e

2

5. A new treatment for a certain disease is to be tested on a group of 8 patients. To be approved by

the ocial institutions, it has to be successful in at least 5 patients. What is the probability that

it will be approved if the probability of success in each patient is 0.5?

(a)

69

256

= 27%

(b)

93

256

= 36%

(c)

5

8

= 37.5%

(d) 1 c

5

8

= 46.5%

(e) 50%

Pr(ajjroa|) =

8

5

1

2

8

+

8

6

1

2

8

+

8

7

1

2

8

+

8

8

1

2

8

=

93

256

ANSWER: b

6. (LM) The cross-sectional area of plastic tubing for use in pulmonary resuscitators is normally

distributed with j = 12.5 ::

2

and o = 0.2 ::

2

. When the area is less than 12.0 ::

2

or

greater than 13.0 ::

2

, the tube does not t properly. If the tubes are shipped in boxes of 1000,

how many wrong sized tubes per box can doctors expect to nd?

(a) 6

(b) 12

(c) 15

(d) 22

(e) 38

To obtain the probability of having a wrong sized tube we require Pr(A < 12 or A

13) = 1 Pr(12 A 13)

Pr(12 A 13) = Pr(2.5 7 2.5) = 98.76%

(obtaining by looking up at the standard normal table)

1000 1.24% ' 12

ANSWER: b

7. (LM) A college professor teaches Chemistry 101 each fall to a large class of freshmen. For tests,

she uses standardized exams that produce bell-shaped grade distributions with a mean of 70 and

a standard deviation of 12. Her philosophy of grading is to impose standards that will yield, on

average, 20% As, 27% Bs, 37% Cs, 12% Ds and 4% Fs. A student should get a B if his/her

grade is between:

(a) 71 and 80

(b) 71 and 90

(c) 73 and 90

(d) 77 and 80

(e) 77 and 88

.

80%

= 0.84. .

53%

= 0.075.

[70 + 12 0.075, 70 + 12 0.84]

ANSWER: a

3

8. The logarithm of the price of a share of Binaryaction Inc moves in a strange way. Every day, it

goes up by 0.1 with probability 50% or it goes down by 0.1 with probability 50%. What is the

probability that a share of Binaryaction Inc will cost the same as it costs today in 10 days?

(a)

1

32

= 3.1%

(b)

1

11

= 9.1%

(c)

125

1024

= 12.2%

(d)

63

256

= 24.6%

(e)

1

2

= 50%

10

5

1

2

10

=

63

256

ANSWER: d

9. The random variable A has a Poisson distribution such that Pr(A = 0) = Pr(A = 1). Thus,

Pr(A = 3) is:

(a) (1,3

10

).c

1=3

(b) (1,6).c

3

(c) (1,2).c

3

(d) (1,6).c

1

(e) (9,2).c

3

(i) Pr(A = 0) =

c

`

0

,0! = c

(ii) Pr(A = 1) =

c

`

1

,1! = `c

(i)=(ii)=` = 1

Pr(A = 3) =

c

`

3

,3! = c

1

,6

ANSWER: d

4

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