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probability odds 2

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probability odds 2

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Objective

Students will find the probability of an event and the odds of an event.

Vocabulary

Probability (P) is the likelihood that an event will occur. Outcomes when you do a probability experiment the different possible results are called outcomes

Types of Probability

Theoretical Probability

Theoretical Probability is based upon the number of favorable outcomes divided by the total number of outcomes

Example:

Each die contains the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6. Of those numbers only 2, 4, and 6 are even. So, we can set up a ratio of the number of favorable outcomes divided by the total number of outcomes, which is 3/6 or 1/2

Theoretical Probability : P= Number of favorable outcomes Total number of outcomes

Example # 1

A box contains 5 green pens, 3 blue pens, 8 black pens and 4 red pens. A pen is picked at random What is the probability that the pen is green? There are 5 + 3 + 8 + 4 or 20 pens in the box

P (green) = # green pens Total # of pens = 5 =1 20 4

Example # 2

What is the probability that you will roll an even number? A 2, 4, 6, 8, 10 or 12? P (even) = # even sides = 6 =1 Total # of sides 12 2

Experimental Probability

As the name suggests, Experimental Probability is based upon repetitions of an actual experiment.

Example: If you toss a coin 10 times and record that the number of times the result was 8 heads, then the experimental probability was 8/10 or 4/5

Experimental Probability:

P=

Example #3

In an experiment a coin is tossed 15 times. The recorded outcomes were: 6 heads and 9 tails. What was the experimental probability of the coin being heads?

P (heads) = # Heads Total # Tosses = 6 15

Example #4

In an experiment a dice is rolled 30 times. The recorded outcomes were: 18 evens and 12 odds. What was the experimental probability of the dice being even?

P (even) =

= 18 30

Odds

Odds

Another way to describe the chance of an event occurring is with odds. The odds in favor of an event is the ratio that compares the number of ways the event can occur to the number of ways the event cannot occur.

Odds in Favor = Odds against = number of successes number of failures number of failures number of successes

Example #5

Suppose we play a game with 2 number cubes. If the sum of the numbers rolled is 6 or less you win! If the sum of the numbers rolled is not 6 or less you lose

numbers rolled is 6 or less numbers rolled is not 6 or less numbers rolled is not 6 or less numbers rolled is 6 or less

Example #6

A bag contains 5 yellow marbles, 3 white marbles, and 1 black marble. What are the odds drawing a white marble from the bag?

Odds in favor = number of white marbles number of non-white marbles number of non-white marbles number of white marbles 3 6 6 3

Odds against =

Therefore, the odds for are 1:2 and the odds against are 2:1

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