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DICKINSON 2035: Roadmap to the Future

Housing

Chapter 7

Chapter 7 Housing

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Housing is a central topic of the comprehensive plan. The city is experiencing a high demand for housing that is forecasted to continue for approximately another 10 years. The supply of housing units has not been able to keep up with demand, resulting is significant difficulties for new residents in obtaining housing and sharp increases in the housing cost. This chapter will provide a detailed description of existing housing characteristics and identify specific housing issues. Responses to community survey questions about housing supplement housing data from various sources. The information from all sources was used to develop policies to address specific housing issues. Finally, housing forecasts for the planning period will be provided. The future demand for housing in the city is extraordinarily high largely due to the strong forecasted job growth attributed to continued energy development in western North Dakota. Based on forecast, the city has the potential of increasing its current stock of housing by 80 percent over the next 10 years. With such a strong growth rate, existing housing issues will be exacerbated without proactive housing policies.

NUMBER AND TYPE OF HOUSING UNITS


Table 7-1 shows the total number of housing units recorded in the 2000 and 2010 US Censuses for Dickinson, Stark County and North Dakota. During the 10-year period, 832 housing units were added in the city, presenting an 11.8 percent increase. Table 7-1: Total Housing Units, Dickinson, Stark County and North Dakota, 2000-2010 2000 Dickinson Stark County North Dakota
SOURCE: 2000 AND 2010 US CENSUS

2010 7,865 10,735 317,498

Number Change 832 1,013 27,821

Percent Change 11.8% 10.4% 9.6%

7,033 9,722 289,677

Table 7-2 shows the change in the type of residential structures between 2000 and 2010. During the decade, the city experienced nearly a 75 percent increase in the number of single family attached structures (duplexes and townhomes). The city also experienced significant increases in apartment buildings with more than 20 units and mobile homes. Table 7-2: Number of Dwelling Units per Structure, City of Dickinson, 2000 - 2010 Type of Residential Structure (Units per Structure) 1-unit, detached 1-unit, attached 2 units 3 or more units 20 or more units Mobile Home Total housing units
SOURCE: US CENSUS

2000 4,382 286 239 1,884 666 230 7,021 62.4% 4.1% 3.4% 26.8% 9.5% 3.3% 100% 4,817 500 260 1,993 795 334 7,844

2010 61.4% 6.4% 3.3% 24.6% 10.1% 4.3% 100%

2000-2010 9.9% 74.8% 8.8% 5.8% 19.4% 45.2% 10.9%

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The data contained in Table 7-2 only includes the housing units built prior to April 2010 when the US Census was conducted and does not include the sharp increase in residential building permits issued by the City after the census. Table 7-3 and Figure 7-1 show the permitting activity in the city since 2008, the year energy development in western North Dakota began to significantly increase. The total number of building permits for all construction types significantly increased in 2010 and rate of growth in building permits has increased in each subsequent year. The majority of permits issued since 2008 are for various types of single family housing units. Unofficial permit data from the City planner indicates approximately 900 permits have been issued in the first nine months of 2012 and a total of 1,500 permits are expected to be issued by year end. A majority of the permits expected to be issued in 2012 will be for multi-family housing units. Table 7-3: Building Permits Issued, City of Dickinson, 2008-2012 (Jan Aug) 2012 (January August) # 418 46 30 494 464 % change 205.1% -37.8% -26.8% 96.0% 119.9%

2008 Unit Type Single Family Multi Family Commercial Total Total Housing # 82 17 34 133 99 % change -----# 78 14 25 117 92

2009 % change -4.9% --26.5% -12.0% -7.1% # 141 70 41 252 211

2010 % change 80.8% 400.0% 64.0% 115.4% 129.3% # 137 74 41 252 211

2011 % change -2.8% 5.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0

SOURCE: NORTH DAKOTA ASSOCIATION OF BUILDERS

Figure 7-1: Building Permits Issued, City of Dickinson, 2008-2012 (Jan Aug)

SOURCE: NORTH DAKOTA ASSOCIATION OF BUILDERS

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Strategy: Maintain a ratio of approximately 66/33 for single-family detached/attached homes and multifamily unit structures, which will provide all residents with housing options to meet lifestyle and cost-related needs.

Household Characteristics
Table 7-4 shows the household characteristics for the city, Stark County and North Dakota in 2010. The most significant observation is the high percentage of non-family households (unrelated persons living together) in the city compared to Stark County and North Dakota. With the exception of unmarried couples, non-family households are predominantly renters. Given the relatively high percentage of non-family households, the City should encourage development of rental housing to meet these households housing needs. Table 7-4: Household Characteristics, Dickinson and North Dakota, 2010 Household Characteristics Total Households Average Household Size Family Households Percent of Total Households Average Family Size Non-Family Households Percent of Total Households
SOURCE: US CENSUS BUREAU, 2010 CENSUS

Dickinson 7,521 2.25 4,308 57.3% 2.89 3,213 42.7%

Stark County 6,860 2.31 5,088 74.2% 2.90 1,772 25.8%

North Dakota 181,192 2.30 170,916 60.8% 2.91 110,276 34.6%

Housing Tenure
Housing tenure is a term used to describe whether a housing unit is owned or rented. Table 7-5 shows the housing tenure profile in 2000 and 2010 for Dickinson, Stark County and North Dakota. Compared to Stark County and the state, the city has a greater percentage of occupied housing units that are rented. Between 2000 and 2010, the citys increase in renter occupied units exceeded the increase in owner occupied units. During the decade the city experienced a 23.3 percent increase in renter occupied units, compared to a 13.3 percent increase for the state. The significant increase in renter occupied units in the city suggest that new residents are either choosing rental housing and/or fewer new residents are able to afford home ownership.

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Table 7-5: Housing Tenure of Occupied Housing Units, Dickinson, Stark County and North Dakota, 2000-2010 Dickinson 2000 Total Occupied Units Owner Occupied Units Percent of Total Renter Occupied Units Percent of Total Owner Occupied 2000-2010 Number Change Owner Occupied 2000-2010 Percent Change Renter Occupied 2000-2010 Number Change Renter Occupied 2000-2010 Percent Change 6,517 4,169 64.0% 2,348 36.0% 456 10.9% 548 23.3% 2010 7,517 4,625 61.5% 2,896 38.5% Stark County 2000 8,932 6,276 70.3% 2,656 29.7% 584 9.3% 569 21.4% 2010 10,085 6,860 68.0% 3,225 32.0% North Dakota 2000 257,152 171,299 66.6% 85,853 33.4% 2010 281,192 183,943 65.4% 97,249 34.6%

24,040 14.0% 11,396 13.3%

SOURCE: US CENSUS BUREAU, 2000 AND 2010 CENSUS

Table 7-6 provides data on the population residing in owner occupied and renter occupied housing units in 2010 for Dickinson, Stark County and North Dakota. The data for the city is similar to that of Stark County and North Dakota and are consistent with the data provided in Table 7-5. Approximately two-thirds of the city population resided in an owner occupied unit and one-third resided in a rental housing unit. It is interesting to note 27.3 percent of renters lived alone. Assuming the percentage remains relatively constant moving forward, the City and developers of apartments should make efforts to meet the demand by constructing a sufficient number of studio or one-bedroom apartments. Table 7-6: Housing Tenure and Population, City of Dickinson, Stark County and North Dakota Household Population by Housing Tenure Population in Owner-Occupied Units Percent of Total Population in Households in Occupied Units Average Household Size in Owner-Occupied Units Owner-Occupied Unit, Persons Living Alone Percent of Population in Owner-Occupied Units Population in Renter-Occupied Units Percent of Total Population in Households in Occupied Units Average Household Size in Renter-Occupied Units Renter-Occupied Unit, Persons Living Alone Percent of Population in Renter-Occupied Units
SOURCE: US CENSUS BUREAU, 2010 CENSUS

Dickinson 11,491 67.8% 2.48 1,035 9.0% 5,462 32.2% 1.89 1,491 27.3%

Stark County 17,154 78.8% 2.50 1,478 8.6% 6,136 28.2% 1.90 1,639 26.7%

North Dakota 457,030 70.6% 2.48 41,156 9.1% 190,505 29.4% 1.96 47,407 24.9%

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Community Survey 1 asked respondents to indicate how much attention should be devoted to various city issues. Two issues were related to housing availability. Two-thirds of respondents indicated much attention should be devoted to the availability of homes to purchase and 82 percent of the respondents indicated much attention should be devoted to the availability of rental housing. The results of the community survey suggest there is a strong unmet demand for both owner and renter occupied housing units.

Housing Costs
Housing costs in the city are presented both in terms of the value of owner and renter occupied housing units. Much of the data presented in this section is from 2010 American Community Survey and given the significant housing shortage in the city that has persisted since 2010, data likely underestimate current housing costs.

Value of Owner Occupied Housing Units


Table 7-7 shows the median value of owner occupied housing units in 2010 for Dickinson, Stark County and North Dakota. Based on US Census data, the median value of an owner occupied housing unit was 6 percent higher than the states median value in 2010. The data prepared by the North Dakota Housing Financing Agency (see Figure 7-2) suggests the 2010 Census under estimates the median values of owner occupied housing units in the city. It is important to note the housing value data in the census is based on the homeowners view of the value of their property. In April 2010, city homeowners may have fully recognized the strength of the housing market. Table 7-7: Median Value of Owner Occupied Housing Units, Dickinson, Stark County and North Dakota, 2010 Dickinson Median Value
SOURCE: 2010 AMERICAN COMMUNITY SURVEY

Stark County $115,300

North Dakota $111,300

$118,000

The 2012 North Dakota Statewide Housing Needs Assessment: Housing Forecast report compiled housing value data for eight regions in the state. Dickinson was designated in the Roosevelt-Custer Region VIII that included the following counties: Adams, Billings, Bowman, Dune, Golden Valley, Hettinger, Slope and Stark Counties. Table 7-8 provides a profile of the value of owner occupied housing units in 2010 for the city and Region VIII. Compared to Region VIII, the significantly fewer owner occupied housing with values under $90,000 and a greater percentage of homes valued between $125,000 and $200,000.

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Table 7-8: Value of all Owner Occupied Housing Units, Dickinson and Region VIII, 2010 Owner-Occupied Housing Units by Value Total Less than $40,000 Number Percent of Total $40,000 to $69,999 Number Percent of Total $70,000 to $89,999 Number Percent of Total $90,000 to $124,000 Number Percent of Total $125,000 to $199,000 Number Percent of Total $200,000 or More Number Percent of Total 672 14.0% 1,621 13.5% 1,487 30.9% 2,648 22.1% 1,305 27.2% 2,225 18.6% 592 12.3% 1,607 13.4% 447 9.3% 2,000 16.7% 302 9.3% 1,182 15.7% Dickinson 4,805 Region VIII 11,983

SOURCE: 2012 NORTH DAKOTA STATEWIDE HOUSING NEEDS ASSESSMENT: HOUSING FORECAST

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Figure 7-2: Median Home Prices by City in North Dakota

North Dakota Bismarck-Mandan


Dickinson

$160,000 $137,000 $129,900 $117,000


$116,500

$162,500 $143,600 $139,900


$144,450

$110,000 $93,000

$183,950

Fargo-Moorhead Grand Forks Jamestown Minot


Watford City
$42,750

$161,200 $138,000 $139,707 $132,000


$133,900 $131,000 $125,000

$172,000

$89,900 $82,250 $80,000 $69,350


$103,750 $97,000 $139,900

$169,900

$160,000

Wahpeton-Breckenridge Williston
$0

$85,900 $81,000 $73,800 $70,444


$65,000 $94,500 $129,950

$185,000
$160,000 $200,000

$40,000 2011 2009

$80,000 2007

$120,000 2005

SOURCE: NORTH DAKOTA HOUSING FINANCE AGENCY AND NORTH DAKOTA BOARD OF REALTORS *Note Data is still being compiled for communities for year 2005, 2007 and 2011

The increased demand for housing has had a tremendous effect on housing sale prices. As shown in Table 7-9 and Figure 7-3, the average sale price for a home increased from $151,045 in 2009 to $194,651 in 2011, representing nearly a 30 percent increase in three years. The median sale price increased from $144,450 in 2009 to $183,950 in 2011, representing more than a 27 percent increase in three years. It is important to note the data provided in Table 7-9, Figure 7-2 and Figure 7-3 represent only homes listed on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) and do not include exclusive listings or sale by owner properties. When comparing average versus median sale prices, it is important to remember very high or very low homes sales can skew the average price up or down. As such, median sale prices tend to reflect a more statistically accurate measurement of the home values. The average sold price or list price ratio shows the difference between the listed price for a home and the actual selling price. A value of 100 percent means that a home sold for the listed price. As can be seen from the data, homes sold slightly less than the listed price, although the gap has minimized over the past three years from 96.1 percent in 2009 to 98.5 percent in 2011.

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Table 7-9: Dickinson Home Sale Prices 2009-2011 Year 2009 2010 2011 Average Sale Price $151,045 $173,992 $194,651 Price Percent Median Sale Price Increase Change $22,947 $20,659 15.2 11.9 $144,450 $165,000 $183,950 Price Increase $20,550 $18,950 Percent Change 14.2 11.5 Average Sold Price/List Price Ratio 96.1% 97.3% 98.5%

SOURCE: NORTH DAKOTA BOARD OF REALTORS

Figure 7-3: Average Sale versus Median Sale Home Price, City of Dickinson

SOURCE: NORTH DAKOTA BOARD OF REALTORS

Gross Rent
Gross rent is defined as the amount of the contract rent plus the estimated average monthly cost of utilities (electricity, gas, and water and sewer) and fuels (oil, coal, kerosene, wood, etc.) if these are paid for by the renter (or paid for the renter by someone else). Gross rent is intended to eliminate differentials which result from varying practices with respect to the inclusion of utilities and fuels as part of the rental payment. Table 7-10 shows the 2010 median gross rent of renter occupied units paying cash (as opposed to in-kind payments) for Dickinson, Stark County and North Dakota. Based on data from the 2010 American Community Survey, the 2010 median gross rent in the city is only five percent greater than that of the state.

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Table 7-10: Median Monthly Rent of Renter Occupied Housing Units Paying Cash Rent, Dickinson, Stark County and North Dakota, 2010 Dickinson Median Gross Rent
SOURCE: 2010 AMERICAN COMMUNITY SURVEY

Stark County $547

North Dakota $555

$584

Table 7-11 provides gross rent data presented in ranges of gross rent for Dickinson and Region VIII. Generally, compared to Region VIII, the city has relatively fewer rental units with monthly rents less than $450 and relatively greater rental units with monthly rents more than $450. Table 7-11: Median Gross Monthly Rent of Renter Occupied Housing Units Paying Cash Rent, Dickinson and Region VIII, 2010 Renter Units Total Less than $250 Number Percent of Total $250 to $349 Number Percent of Total $350 to $449 Number Percent of Total $450 to $549 Number Percent of Total $550 to $749 Number Percent of Total $750 or More Number Percent of Total 517 22.4% 617 18.1% 766 33.1% 965 28.3% 434 18.8% 568 16.7% 215 9.3% 523 15.3% 198 8.6% 378 11.1% 181 7.8% 357 10.5% Dickinson 2,311 Region VII 3,408

SOURCE: 2012 NORTH DAKOTA STATEWIDE HOUSING NEEDS ASSESSMENT: HOUSING FORECAST

Housing Affordability
As noted above, the supply of housing in the city has not kept up with the strong demand for housing, resulting in recent sharp increases for housing. Nearly three-quarters of respondents to Community Survey 1 felt much attention should be devoted to the cost of purchasing a home and more than 82 percent responded that much attention should be devoted to the cost of housing rent. Using the community survey results, input from several public meetings and conversations with City officials and community stakeholders, it is reasonable to conclude the housing cost is a major issue for the entire community.

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Persons with modest wages or fixed incomes are struggling to pay escalating housing costs. Employers are having difficulties retaining and recruiting workers due to the shortage and high cost of housing. Some residents have chosen to move from the city in search of more affordable housing elsewhere. However, the rising home prices are benefiting residents that bought before the significant increase in home values and the increase has given residents increased equity in their homes. The equity can then be used to help pay for needed improvements to homes or can be used for other financial purposes. Affordable housing is a function of the supply of low-cost housing and the income levels of households/individuals. Housing affordability is generally defined by how much of a households income is devoted to housing costs (mortgage/ rent plus utilities). For individual households, housing is considered affordable when no more than 30 percent of household income is expended on housing costs.

Homeownership and Rental Costs


Table 7-12 provides data on the amount monthly housing costs for homeowners in Dickinson. The percentage of homeowner households whose housing costs exceeded 30 percent of their household income dropped from year 2000 to year 2010. In 2000, 14.7 percent of homeowner households had housing costs greater than 30 percent of their household income. In 2010, that percentage dropped to 13.0 percent. The finding could be a result of sampling techniques used by the Census to measure household income. Another possible explanation is the price of owner occupied housing units was in the early stages of escalation in April 2010 when the census was conducted. Regardless of the results of the 2010 US Census, the availability and cost of purchasing an owner occupied housing unit is a major community issue in 2012. Table 7-12: Monthly Homeowner Costs as a Percentage of Household Income, Dickinson ND, 2000 and 2010 Monthly Owner Costs as a Percentage of Household Income Less than 20.0 percent 20.0 to 24.9 percent 25.0 to 29.9 percent 30.0 to 34.9 percent 35.0 percent or more Not computed Total
SOURCE: US CENSUS BUREAU, 2000 AND 2010 CENSUSES

2000 Number 2,296 607 287 146 414 56 3,806 Percent 60.3% 15.9% 7.5 3.8 10.9% 1.5% 100% 3,009 751 407 221 406 11 4,805

2010 Number Percent 32.6% 15.6% 8.5 4.6 8.4% 0.2% 100%

Data in Table 7-13 clearly shows rental housing in the city became less affordable between 2000 and 2010. In 2000, 33.7 percent of renter households had housing costs greater than 30 percent of their household income. In 2010, that percentage increased to 40.6 percent. In 2010, 35 percent of renter households paid gross rent that was greater than 35 percent of their household income.

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Table 7-13: Gross Rent as a Percentage of Household Income, Dickinson, 2000 and 2010 Gross Rent as a Percentage of Household Income Less than 15.0 percent 15.0 to 19.9 percent 20.0 to 24.9 percent 25.0 to 29.9 percent 30.0 to 34.9 percent 35.0 percent or more Not computed Total 2000 Number 481 384 297 237 107 674 134 2,314 Percent 20.8% 16.6% 12.8% 10.2% 4.6% 29.1% 5.8% 100 457 313 374 193 133 828 68 2,366 2010 Number Percent 19.3% 13.2% 15.8% 8.2% 5.6% 35.0 2.9% 100

SOURCE: US CENSUS (EXCLUDES UNITS WHERE GRAPH CANNOT BE COMPUTED)

Table 7-14 provides valuable information regarding a households ability to purchase a home or rent a housing unit. The monthly affordable housing costs were estimated at 30 percent of each income category and the affordable purchase price was based on a lenders formula. The main assumptions made in calculating the affordable purchase price included a 30year loan fixed at 4 percent interest, 5 percent down payment, property taxes at 1.25 percent of the loan, mortgage and hazard insurance at 0.6 percent of the loan and total debt at no more than 20 percent of income. Households with extremely low and very low household incomes are expected to reside in rental housing. The 2010 median gross rent in Dickinson was $584 (US Census); however, based on input from the community, rental prices have significantly increased through 2012. Households with extremely low and very low household incomes will experience significant challenges in finding an affordable renter-occupied housing unit. In addition, with current median home prices estimated between $160,000 and $190,000, the following income groups may have difficulty purchasing a home: All households with extremely low and very low household incomes A majority of household with low incomes A significant portion of moderate income households As result, high demand for rental housing will likely exist within the city of Dickinson. Table 7-14 shows future demand for rental housing, affordable rental housing and affordable owner occupied housing units.

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Table 7-14: Housing Affordability by Household Income Groups, City of Dickinson, 2010 Income Categories Based on Income as Percentage of the Median Family Income (MFI) FY 2010 Extremely Low: 0% to 30% MFI Min Annual Income Ranges Monthly Affordable Housing Costs Affordable Purchase Price $0 Max Very Low: 31% to 50% MFI Min Max Low Income: 51% to 80% MFI Min Max Moderate: 81% to 115% MFI Min $51,047 Max $73,378 Upper: Above 115% MFI Min Max Tax Credit: 51% to 60% MFI Min Max

$19,142 $19,143 $31,904 $31,905 $51,046

$73,379 and above $1,834 and above

$31,905 $38,284

$0

$479

$480

$798

$799

$1,276

$1,277

$1,834

$798

$957

$0

$39,178

$65,182

$104,442

$150,371

$181,238

$78,356

SOURCE: 2012 NORTH DAKOTA STATEWIDE HOUSING NEEDS ASSESSMENT: HOUSING FORECAST USING DATA FROM THE US DEPARTMENT OF HOUSING AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT AND THE CENTER FOR SOCIAL RESEARCH AT NDSU

Community Survey 2 included a question asking What type of affordable housing units would you like to see constructed in Dickinson? Survey respondents indicated they would like to see more single family homes, townhomes/duplexes and apartments constructed as affordable housing options. Figure 7-4 shows the results of the survey question with single-family homes representing the largest type of affordable unit desired. The community appears to also support development of affordable housing. Only 5.5 percent of respondents chose a response of I dont want affordable units in my neighborhood regardless of what they look like. However, to make this a reality, the City should consider developing incentives for affordable units that are both attractive and functional. Because of the strong real estate market in Dickinson, construction of affordable units may be difficult unless the City can help incentivize such development. Figure 7-4: Community Survey Affordable Housing
5.0% 7.0% Manufactured Homes

Single-family Homes 22.0% Townhomes/Duplexes 39.0%

Apartments

27.0%

I don't want affordable units in my neighborhood no matter what they look like.

SOURCE: COMMUNITY SURVEY #2

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Strategy: Establish an affordable housing project on city-owned land south of SW 8th Street or on property south of I-94 and west of 10th Avenue or on other city-owned property. A portion of the land could be set aside or sold for a nominal ($1) fee to Community Action Partnership or other non-profit developers such as Habitat for Humanity or Lutheran Social Services. Community Survey 2 included a question that addressed the subject of the city use of mandates and incentives to promote the development of affordable housing. Figure 7-5 shows the response to the survey question that asked Should the City offer incentives (more home per acre, fee waivers) for developers to build affordable housing or should the City require that developers construct affordable housing? The results suggest that the community prefers some type of City assistance to increase the development of affordable housing. Figure 7-5: Community Survey Housing Incentives and/or Mandates

SOURCE: COMMUNITY SURVEY #2

The North Dakota Housing Finance Agencys (NDHFA) Housing Incentive Fund (HIF) allows individuals, businesses and financial institutions to receive a dollar-for-dollar state income tax credit in exchange for their contributions. Dollars given can be targeted to a specific project or community. Currently, Dickinson has two projects that have applied for the tax credits, which would produce 34 affordable units. The 2012 North Dakota Statewide Housing Needs Assessment: Housing Forecast report estimated that in 2010 there were 714 households in the city that would qualify for the tax credit, and by year 2025 there could be an estimated 1,380 qualifying households. To qualify for the tax credit a households income needs to be between 51 and 60 percent of the median family city income. In 2010, the median family city income was $63,807. To qualify for the tax credit households need to have an income between $32,542 and $38,284. For more information regarding NDHFAs HIF program including income limits, development costs and other program questions, please visit: http://www.ndhfa.org/ default.asp?nMenu=05379.

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Strategy: Encourage developers to utilize NDHFAs HIF program, which allows developers to receive up to a 25 percent tax credit on potential projects, to stimulate affordable housing development for rental and owner housing needs. Strategy: Create a housing partnership to develop affordable housing. The partnership would consist of a nonprofit community development corporation such as the Community Action Partnership, a lending consortium and an information and counseling service. Community Action Partnership could utilize the NDHFA HIF program to leverage funds for affordable housing. The lending consortium usually consists of credit unions and banks that would be willing to finance affordable housing projects. NDHFA would also serve as the information/counseling service.

Manufactured Homes
Manufactured homes can be affordable housing option for many households. Two manufactured home communities in the city were developed several decades ago and lack the design features and amenities included in todays manufactured home communities. To address the public perception to the two existing manufactured home communities, Community Survey 2 included the following question: Should manufactured/mobile home developments include performance standards such as architectural design guidelines, larger lot sizes, open space and landscaping? Figure 7-6 shows the response to the question. Results indicate the community supports the development of well-designed manufacturing communities. Figure 7-6: Community Survey Manufactured/Mobile Homes

Yes 30.7%

No
Maybe - I'd have to see examples before I decide

5.9%

63.4%

SOURCE: COMMUNITY SURVEY #2

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Strategy: Encourage development of manufactured home development and require mobile home and manufactured housing developments to incorporate performance standards such as design guidelines, larger lot sizes, landscaping and open space recreation areas.

Temporary Housing
The rapid growth in energy development over the past five years has generated a tremendous workforce of temporary energy-extraction employees. Most workers are from out of state and regularly commute back to their home communities. As such, the vast majority of the workers rely on various temporary housing. The workers have found temporary housing from the following sources: Hotel rooms contracted out for extended periods of time by the oil companies RV and mobile home parks Subletting of homes On-site housing of employees Temporary crew camp facilities Crew camp facilities, if designed and managed properly, offer several benefits including alleviating demand for permanent housing units, generating city revenue, providing infrastructure improvements paid by crew camp owners and creating redevelopment opportunities when temporary crew camp facilities are no longer needed. To help alleviate the housing demand and reduce the likelihood of overbuilding housing, temporary crew camps should be encouraged and built in the city. Future crew camp sites should be placed where infrastructure currently exists or will be built by the crew camp developers. In addition, facilities should be situated where they can be converted to another use or easily dismantled. Compatibility with nearby residential uses should be a central factor in determining an appropriate location for crew camps. Crew camps should be located in areas that are predominantly commercial or industrial in nature. Figure 7-7 shows the result of a Community Survey 1 question, which asked Where should crew camps be located? The majority of respondents (65 percent) indicated crew camps should be located near within 1-2 miles of the city boundary. However, if impacts of crew camps can be properly mitigated, they could be developed within the existing city boundary to maximize the efficiency of infrastructure and law enforcement services.

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Figure 7-7: Community Survey Crew Camps

9.0%

6.0%

20.5%

Within city limits On the urban fringe (within 1-2 miles of the city boundary) Somewhere in the county

64.5%

Do not want anywhere

SOURCE: COMMUNITY SURVEY #1

Strategy: Utilize existing crew camp policies and development standards to minimize impacts to the community and locate future crew camps in commercial or light industrial areas, preferably near existing crew camp facilities. Strategy: Develop plans for future reuse of crew camp facilities or the land where crew camp facilities have been removed from the site. Potential reuse options include senior style apartment complexes, housing for Dickinson State University students or commercial/industrial type projects.

Future Housing Demand


As discussed in the Population Characteristics, Trends and Projections Chapter, NDSU prepared three employment and housing forecast scenarios. The scenarios differed in the assumed future rate of energy development in western North Dakota and the amount of the forecasted demand the city was able to meet. The City Commission chose a forecast scenario that assumed 1) the future energy development would be at a rate equal to the average of the slow and rapid growth of energy development and 2) that the city would exceed its current share of regional housing (50 percent) and meet 70 percent of the forecasted demand for permanent housing. Temporary and permanent energy-sector workforces have different housing needs. As such, housing forecasts were prepared for the total number of housing units (temporary and permanent housing) and the number of permanent housing. The demand for temporary housing includes crew camps, long-term hotel leases and other non-traditional housing while the demand for permanent housing will be met by conventional housing products. Table 7-15 and Figure 7-8 show the forecasted total, permanent and temporary housing demand for the city. Table 7-16 provides summary information on the peak year for permanent and temporary housing demand, the number of new permanent housing units required to meet peak demand, and the percent change in permanent housing units to meet peak demand and other measures to assist the city planning for growth in residential development. The City will need to track new units permitted to compare the supply of permitted housing units to the forecasted demand. By monitoring the supply

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of new housing in relation to demand, City planning staff will be able to evaluate if over-building is occurring or whether supply is not keeping up with the forecasted demand resulting in upward pressures on the cost of housing. Table 7-15: Forecasted Housing Demand, City of Dickinson, 2011-2035 Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035
SOURCE: NDSU

Total Housing Demand 11,263 12,659 13,913 15,054 16,211 17,285 18,436 19,380 20,152 20,761 21,381 21,400 21,476 20,228 18,996 18,940 18,927 18,929 18,928 18,906 18,933 18,922 18,933 18,939 18,943

Permanent Housing Demand 8,435 9,189 10,040 10,928 11,903 12,971 14,185 15,294 16,274 17,059 17,824 18,074 18,313 18,468 18,544 18,601 18,662 18,722 18,779 18,833 18,881 18,922 18,933 18,939 18,943

Percent Change From Prior Year -8.9% 9.3% 8.8% 8.9% 9.0% 9.4% 7.8% 6.4% 4.8% 4.5% 1.4% 1.3% 0.8% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Temporary Housing Demand 2,828 3,470 3.873 4,126 4,308 4,314 4,251 4,086 3,878 3,702 3,557 3,326 3,163 1,760 452 339 265 207 149 73 52 0 0 0 0

Percent Change from Prior Year -22.7% 11.6% 6.5% 4.4% 0.1% -1.5% -3.9% -5.1% -4.5% -3.9% -6.5% -4.9% -44.4% -74.3% -25.0% -21.8% -21.9% -28.0% -51.0% -28.8% -100.0% ----

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Figure 7-8: Forecasted Housing Demand, City of Dickinson, 2011 - 2035

SOURCE: NDSU

Table 7-16: Summary of Housing Demand, City of Dickinson 2011 - 2035 Permanent Housing Peak Demand (Units) Year for Peak Demand Peak Years in Growth of Demand Annual Number of Units Added (Peak Year Demand) Number Change (2011 to 2035) Percent Change (2011 to 2035)
SOURCE: KLJ

Temporary Housing 4,314 2016 2011-2012 ----

18,943 2035 2016-2017 1,000 11,078 140.9%

To meet the forecasted supply of housing, Dickinson should consider establishing a new residential zoning district that would allow a greater density than the R-3 zoning district. A new high density residential zoning district could help alleviate the strong housing demand by providing developers with an option to construct more units per acre which would help to bring down the costs of housing and promote the cost-effective use of city infrastructure. Figure 7-9 shows the result of a Community Survey #2 question which addressed the issue of establishing a new high density zoning district. The response to this question suggests community support for a new high density zoning district. Only one-third of the respondents rejected the idea outright.

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Figure 7-9: Community Survey - High Density Zoning

SOURCE: COMMUNITY SURVEY #2

Strategy: Create a new, high-density residential district that would allow more than 25 units per acre, thus increasing the number of homes per acre which can help reduce housing costs while also promote the costeffective use of city infrastructure. The 2012 North Dakota Statewide Housing Needs Assessment: Housing Forecast provides valuable information on the number and type of households that constitute the aggregate forecasted demand for housing. Table 7-17 shows the forecasted demand for owner occupied housing units by age group. Between 2010 and 2025 the demand for owner occupied housing units is forecasted to increase by more than 70 percent. The greatest forecasted demand for owner occupied housing units will be from persons aged 25 to 44 years.

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Table 7-17: Owner Occupied Housing Units by Age of Householder, City of Dickinson, 2010 - 2025 Age Group Less than 25 years 25-44 Years 45-64 years 65 years and older Dickinson Total Region VIII Total 2010 # of Units 105 1,360 2,130 1,210 4,805 15,882 2015 # of Units 125 2,270 2,409 1,296 6,100 20,675 2020 # of Units 143 3,012 2,994 1,477 7,626 24,981 2025 # of Units 157 3,080 3,183 1,801 8,221 26,817 Percent Change 2010-2025 49.5% 126.5% 49.4% 48.8% 71.1% 68.9%

SOURCE: CENTER FOR SOCIAL RESEARCH AT NDSU AND 2006-2010 AMERICAN COMMUNITY SURVEY, 5-YEAR ESTIMATES

Table 7-18 shows the forecasted demand for renter occupied units by age group. Between 2010 and 2025 the demand for renter occupied housing units is forecasted to increase by 114 percent. The demand for renter occupied housing units is relatively greater than Region VIII. Strong demand for renter occupied units is forecasted for persons aged 25 to 64. Between 2010 and 2025 the demand for renter occupied housing units for persons aged 25 to 44 years is forecasted to increase more than 200 percent, and the demand for persons aged 45 to 64 years is forecasted to double. Given the very strong forecasted demand for renter occupied units, the City should encourage development of apartments and other rental housing products. Table 7-18: Renter Occupied Housing Units by Age of Householder, City of Dickinson and Region VIII, 2010 2025 Age Group Less than 25 years 25-44 Years 45-64 years 65 years and older Dickinson Total Region VIII Total 2010 # of Units 493 711 511 651 2,366 3,899 2015 # of Units 690 1,625 807 671 3,793 5,979 2020 # of Units 788 2,156 1,002 764 4,710 7,273 2025 # of Units 863 2,204 1,066 931 5,064 7,795 Percent Change 2010-2025 75.1% 210.0% 108.6% 43.0% 114.0% 99.9%

SOURCE: CENTER FOR SOCIAL RESEARCH AT NDSU AND 2006-2010 AMERICAN COMMUNITY SURVEY, 5-YEAR ESTIMATES

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Table 7-19 shows the forecast of homebuyer type who are expected to purchase a home in the city between 2010 and 2025. The forecasted number of homebuyers in all income groups and first time homebuyers is expected to double between 2010 and 2025. The forecasted doubling of home purchases by low income households will likely not be met unless the supply of affordable housing increases significantly. Housing developers should attempt to meet the forecasted demand of households eligible for the NDHFAs HIF tax credit program. Table 7-19: Households by Homebuyer Type, City of Dickinson, 2010 - 2025 Homebuyer Type First Time Buyer Low Income Moderate Income Upper Income Eligible for Tax Credit
Notes:

2010 # of Units 1,185 2,145 1,240 1,771 1,861

2015 # of Units 2,123 3,202 1,858 2,656 1,966

2020 # of Units 2,766 4,043 2,393 3,419 2,241

2025 # of Units 2,851 4,242 2,491 3,559 2,732

Percent Change 2010-2025 140.0% 97.8% 100.9% 101.0% 46.8%

SOURCE: CENTER FOR SOCIAL RESEARCH AT NDSU AND 2006-2010 AMERICAN COMMUNITY SURVEY, 5-YEAR ESTIMATES 1. First Time Homebuyer defined as less than 45 years with household income from $30,000 to $74,999 2. Low Income Homebuyer defined as less than 65 years with household income less than $50,000 3. Moderate Income Homebuyer defined as ages 25 to 64 with household income from $50,000 to $74,999 4. Upscale Homebuyer defined as ages 25 to 64 with household income of $75,000 or more

Housing Programs and Incentives


Housing availability and cost will continue to be a major concern for many residents as forecasted energy development in western North Dakota is expected to continue over the next decade. To help meet the strong demand for housing of all types, including affordable housing, the use of housing programs and incentives is recommended. The City should consider implementing, or supporting the implementation by others, the following housing programs and incentives.

Community Land Trust


The National Community Land Trust Network is a nationwide organization that helps promote community land trusts (CLT) as well as assists communities in establishing such land trusts. A typical CLT is defined as a non-profit entity that owns land and leases it for a nominal fee thereby reducing housing costs. Participating residents get the benefit of owning a home while being able to afford the purchase because the land belongs to the CLT, thus removing a significant cost in the home purchase price. A provision is established in the resale of the home limiting the amount of profit the current owner which ensures the home will remain relatively affordable over a long period of time. The goal of CLT as defined by the National Community Land Trust Network is to provide access to land and housing to people who are otherwise denied access, increase long-term community control of neighborhood resources, empower residents through involvement and participation in the organization and preserve the affordability of housing permanently. CLTs are well suited for communities struggling with the issue of housing affordability because CLTs do not need additional subsidies each time the house resells; the permanent affordability is built into the land lease in perpetuity. For more information on CLTs visit: http://www.cltnetwork.org//index.php.

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Resident Owned Communities
Resident owned communities (ROC) are growing in popularity. A ROC is essentially a manufactured home park, mobile home or trailer park whereby residents purchase land from the private owner and establish a not-for-profit organization similar to a homeowners association. The key to successfully implementing a ROC is having buy-in from all residents to work together and buy the land. Several organizations exist to help mobile home park residents establish a ROC, including ROC USA and NeighborWorks Montana, a statewide housing organization funded with the goal of promoting sustainable homeownership. Neighborworks Montana would be a valuable resource if Dickinson decided to promote the establishment of ROCs in the community. Figure 7-10: ROC House in a NeighborWorks Montana Community in Great Falls, MT

SOURCE: NEIGHBORWORKS MONTANA

For more information on ROCs visit: http://www.nwmt.org/roc.html or http://rocusa.org/.

Funding Incentives including NDHFAs HIF Program


Low income housing tax credits (LIHTC) and the HIF program provide developers tax credits to facilitate financing for affordable housing development. LIHTCs are given on a national basis and funded through the US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). However, local housing programs and NDHFA can assist home builders and developers in applying for LIHTC and HIF tax credits. Property tax exemptions are another tool the City can use to promote development of affordable housing. The City could include property tax exemption provisions in development agreements that establish price points for a specified number of housing units, the number, type and size of housing units and other factors that would yield a specified amount of affordable housing.

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The US Department of Agriculture-Rural Development awards grants and low-interest loans specifically targeted for constructing affordable housing units. Rental assistance and housing preservation grants are also offered to ensure lowincome housing units are retained and not demolished for market-rate housing. Visit http://www.rurdev.usda.gov/HMF_ MFH.html for more information.

Land Development Incentives


Dickinson can implement several land development strategies to incentivize affordable housing units. Incentives may include providing density bonuses for subdivisions that provide affordable housing units, revising zoning guidelines to encourage smaller lot sizes, infill development and a new high-density residential zone and providing financial assistance with infrastructure costs.

Homeless Coalition
The Region 8 Southwest Homeless Coalition is responsible for assisting homeless persons and families in the Dickinson area find shelter and food. The coalition also partners with the North Dakota Coalition for Homeless People, which is located in Bismarck. As noted on the coalitions website, The Coalition believes that housing and other basic human needs should be within everyones reach in an affordable and dignified manner. Our vision is to be a statewide team of agencies collaborating to end homelessness. The Citys support of the homeless coalition would assist it in its mission to help those who are less fortunate find housing and food. The coalition has prepared a 10-year strategic plan to end homelessness in the region (the plan can be accessed at: http://www.ndhomelesscoalition.org/images/10year/Dickinson10YearPlan.pdf).The City should continue to work with the program to expand the services listed below and support the strategies contained in the 10-year plan, especially as more people relocate to the Dickinson area.

Services
Develop supportive housing for homeless individuals and families. Work to prevent further homelessness. Improve access to services for the homeless. Share information and strategies among local homeless coalitions. Advocate for local initiatives to improve housing and services for the homeless. Promote involvement, collaboration and leadership from local service providers and units of government through the development and implementation of a statewide Continuum of Care plan.

Objectives and Recommended Policies


Objective 1: Increase quantity and quality of rental units to accommodate low- and fixed-income residents. Policy 1.1 Establish a density bonus for development projects that include affordable housing. Density bonuses should be based on the number of affordable units in the project and should be implemented using a sliding scale (e.g. more affordable units equals higher density). Policy 1.2 Coordinate with non-profit development groups to create affordable housing projects and promote the North Dakota Housing Finance Agencys Housing Incentive Fund (HIF), which allows developers to construct affordable rental units and to receive up to a 25 percent tax credit. Policy 1.3 Encourage developers to utilize low-income tax credits provided by HIF to support the development of affordable rental properties.

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Policy 1.4 The City should consider participating in the US Department of Housing and Urban Development HOME Investment Partnerships, Self-Help Home Ownership and Home Ownership Zone programs to increase the number of affordable housing units in the city. Policy 1.5 City staff shall place a priority on the review projects with affordable housing. The City shall also consider waiving application fees and other city fees for projects with a specified percentage of units dedicated to affordable housing (e.g. 1-9 units equals 50 percent reduction in fees and 10 more units equals no fees). Objective 2: Develop incentives to construct quality, affordable single-family homes and provide more housing options. Policy 2.1 Promote affordable housing development to accommodate housing needs of service sector workers. Consider grant or loan programs administered by the Department of Commerce, Bank of North Dakota and USDA Rural Development. Policy 2.2 Allow accessory dwelling units on single-family detached properties subject to lot area, height and floor area standards to increase the supply of affordable housing. Accessory dwelling units shall be permitted in subdivisions that receive preliminary plat approval after the adoption of the comprehensive plan. The City consider allowing accessory dwelling units in all subdivisions. Policy 2.3 Encourage creation of Community Land Trusts and Resident-Owned Communities in the city. Policy 2.4 Monitor the amount and types of housing being built to ensure supply is meeting demand, and use the collected data to prevent incentivizing of projects that could lead to excess supply. Objective 3: Strengthen neighborhoods by developing pedestrian scale retail services. Policy 3.1 Promote development of commercial retail uses at strategic locations such as within walking distance of DSU, in the downtown to support existing professional service businesses, and within planned residential areas to provide convenient access to retail businesses. Policy 3.2 Establish new zoning regulations to encourage mixed residential development and establish a new high density zoning district with a maximum density of 25 or more units per acres. Policy 3.3 Encourage high-quality mobile home and manufactured housing subdivision developments at appropriate locations and establish with performance standards in the zoning ordinance that address the design and private common amenities in manufactured home communities. Objective 4: Encourage development of crew camps at appropriate locations and encourage crew camps design that can be redeveloped for other uses. Policy 4.1 Crew camps should not be established in areas that would directly impact existing or planned residential areas. Crew camps should be established in predominantly intensive commercial or industrial areas. Policy 4.2 Consider the recommended amendments to the crew camp ordinance provided in Appendix B intended to address ambiguities and unaddressed issues in the existing ordinance. Policy 4.3 Encourage crew camp facilities designed for reuse options such as student housing for Dickinson State University, senior style apartments, low-income housing or a homeless shelter. Objective 5: Support the activities of the Southwest Homeless Coalition to create a homeless or transitional shelter.

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