You are on page 1of 3

AFF Republican Survey

Phone: 702 476 0880 Fax: 702 664 0934

Introduction Dane & Associates was contacted and requested to conduct a survey in Pennsylvania. The nature of the survey is to determine the vulnerability of moderate to left leaning Republicans in the state. Questions were determined, based on voting records, and issues that face the legislature. About Dane & Associates Dane & Associates has been in existence since 1997 and is based in Las Vegas, NV. We have conducted thousands of polls and surveys since our inception. We pride ourselves on our accuracy. Over the years Dane & Associates has developed proprietary algorithms and analyzed data allowing for more accurate results. Dane & Associates conducts Issue Surveys, Candidate Polling and Exit Polling. Our results have proven to be exceptionally accurate and exceed the industry average by a significant amount. Survey Summary The nature of this survey is to determine the vulnerability of moderate to left leaning Republicans in Pennsylvania. First we must determine the mindset of voters, to see if they are supportive of the voting record by their State Senator. For accuracy we targeted only counties with a Republican Voting Population no less than 40%. Targeted counties can be viewed in Addendum A. This data can be reformulated into State Senate Districts, then matched to the voting record of each State Senator. Methodology Data for Dane & Associates survey research is collected using an automated polling methodology.

Throughout the years this automated survey process has proven to be more accurate than live operators. Our process is similar to that of firms who use live operators. The key difference is that automated survey systems use a single, digitally-recorded, voice to conduct the interview while traditional firms rely on phone banks, boiler rooms, and operator-assisted technology. This gives automated surveys a more consistent interview taking out any bias that may be heard by a live interviewer. Dane & Associates selects any data that meets the criteria of the district being surveyed. Then we generate a file by selecting the data at random to be called. After we complete the number of interviews necessary to achieve the desired margin of error, the data is checked to ensure all demographic quotas are met. To ensure higher participation in our surveys, calls are placed from 5 pm to 9 pm local time during the week. Saturday calls are made from 11 am to 6 pm local time. Dane & Associates recommends that no calls are placed on Sunday. Weve determined that due to Sunday schedules it is difficult to obtain statistical accuracy. In areas that have a heavy Jewish population we refrain from calling from sundown on Friday to sundown on Saturday. Data The data for this file was first determined by gaining access to the Pennsylvania State voter file . All counties were analyzed to determine the subject counties. Each county was further analyzed based on the voter file to determine demographic information, (including Sex, Age, Party Affiliation) For the purpose of this survey, only pure Republican Households were selected. For a higher rate of accuracy we only called voters who have a 70% or better voter propensity1. Dane & Associates then weighs the data through its proprietary system that accurately samples the data based on the demographics of the district. Survey Questions Question 1: Are you more likely or less likely to support your Republican State Senator if he or she voted for ObamaCare via Medicaid expansion; voted to impose the highest gas tax in the country, and failed to support free market principles to privatize liquor sales and distribution in Pennsylvania?

Voter propensity is determined by the number of times someone is eligible to vote compared to the number of times they actually vote. This is more accurate than the traditional way of selecting 3 out of 5 voters. When you use the traditional method you miss voters who has been eligible for less than 3 elections cycles but constantly voted.

NOTE: Grouping these three questions together would better determine the views of the subject taking the survey. For them not to support the State Senator, they would have agreed with all 3 issues. By creating this higher standard, data should give the best results as related to the conservative views of the subject. Response 1: More likely to support their State Senator: Less likely to support their State Senator: Those not familiar with the issue: Undecided Question 2: If your Republican Senator voted to expand ObamaCare via Medicaid expansion, enact the largest gas tax in the country, and failed to privatize liquor sales and distribution in Pennsylvania would you? 1. Still vote for the Senator because holding majority is more important than a single issue. 2. Support a primary opponent against the Senator. 13% 67% 10% 10%

Response 2: Still support the State Senator: Support a primary Opponent: Conclusion Dane & Associates completed 1282 samples, and has met the demographic criteria within an acceptable range. Through our mathematical calculation this survey is determined to have a margin of error of +/- 2.25% 18% 82%