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Week 3: Correlation and Regression

Ulrike Nauman Dept. of Biostatistics

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**Relationships Between Continuous Variables
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It is often of interest to assess the relationship between two continuous variables, e.g. between weight change and age A simple and very informative way for doing this is to produce a scatter plot using the scatter command

Weight change

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5

10

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Example data: female psychiatric patients (R:\applications\cours es\stata courses\2011 course\female.dta)

scatter weight age

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35 Age in years

40

45

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Scatter Plots

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**Often want to do more than a simple scatter plot
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Indicate sub groups Insert a straight (regression) line Insert a smooth line

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**The twoway command (short for graph twoway) is useful in this respect The command allows to
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Overlay several graphs (e.g. scatter and line graphs) in the same plotting area Indicate sub-groups by using different symbols or line styles Fit lines separately for sub groups Has many options for labelling axes, titles, legends

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Command twoway

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Produce a scatter graph of weight against age which includes a “smooth” line that describes the relationship

twoway (scatter weight age) (lowess weight age), /* */ ytitle(Weight change) xtitle(Age (years))/* */ legend(order(1 "Observed" 2 "Lowess fit"))

10 -5 Weight change 0 5

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35 Age (years) Observed

40 Lowess fit

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Command twoway ctd.no suicidal thoughts" 2 "Regression fit . /* */ ytitle(Weight change) xtitle(Age (years)) legend(order(1 */ "Observed .g. graph matrix age iq weight 80 90 100 110 50 age 40 30 110 100 iq 90 80 10 weight change over last 6m (lb) 5 0 -5 30 40 50 -5 0 5 10 3 .no */ suicidal thoughts" )) /* /* 6 Scatter Plot Matrix • • A scatter plot matrix can be used to look at the bivariate relationships between several continuous variables Use the graph matrix command.) /* */ (lfit weight age if life==1) . e. 6 5 • Produce a scatter graph of weight against age for those that are not at suicide risk and include a regression line -2 30 0 Weight change 2 4 35 Age (years) Observed .no suicidal thoughts twoway (scatter weight age if life==1.no suicidal thoughts 40 45 Regression fit .

indices can be constructed that measure the degree of directional association (=correlation) Correlation coefficients range from -1 to 1 where • • • -1 = complete negative relationship 0 = no correlation 1 = complete positive relationship • A number of different concepts have been employed to define correlation – common ones are • • • Pearson correlation Spearman correlation Others.0000 • Note only cases with complete observations on all variables are used. 4 . e.2856 -0. Kendall’s Tau correlation coefficient (not here) 8 Pearson Correlation • • • The Pearson correlation coefficient r measures the degree of linear relationship between two variables Frequently employed due to its links with regression analysis The Stata command corr supplies a matrix of observed Pearson correlations.g. Here 100 subjects had complete records.g. e.0000 weight | 0.2597 1.4363 1.7 Concept of Correlation • • Instead of assessing the relationship between ordered and/or continuous variables visually.0000 iq | -0. corr age iq weight (obs=100) | age iq weight -------------+--------------------------age | 1.

3010 -0. • • The pwcorr command calculates pairwise correlation coefficients using all the available information The command also supplies a test of zero correlation (based on normality) if requested.0000 | | 118 | iq | -0. pwcorr age iq weight.0000 | 0.0000 | 110 110 | weight | 0. • ci2 and cii2 (immediate version) are user contributed commands that extend Stata’s ci and cii commands to include correlations • • • written by Paul T.g.0091 | 107 100 107 10 Pearson Correlation ctd. obs sig | age iq weight -------------+--------------------------age | 1. e. Seed Install from STATA website (sg159) Background information provided in STB-59 • • Commands produce a confidence interval for a single correlation based on Fisher’s r-to-z transformation CI construction assumes bivariate normality 5 .0016 0.4345 1.0000 | 0.2597 1.9 Pearson Correlation ctd.

while weight change is positively related to age and age negatively related to IQ.067) • The immediate version requires only the sample size n and the observed Pearson correlation coefficient r.11 Pearson Correlation ctd.26 based on n=100 observations cii2 100 -0. e. Correlation = -0.26.260 on 100 observations (95% CI: -0. Correlation = -0.067) 12 Partial Correlation • • • Often want to measure the strength of relationship between two variables after “controlling” for a third (or more) Interested in partial correlation – the Pearson correlation between two variables expected if the level of the third was held constant.26). corr Confidence interval for correlation. • • • • IQ negatively related to weight change (r=-0.g. For example. for r=-0.260 on 100 observations (95% CI: -0.434 to -0. corr Confidence interval for Pearson's product-moment correlation of iq and weight. based on Fisher's transformation. What would be the correlation between IQ and weight change if age was held constant? 6 . based on Fisher's transformation. • Example: construct a CI for the correlation between IQ and weight change ci2 iq weight.434 to -0.

1567 0.000 14 Spearman Correlation • • The Spearman correlation coefficient ρ is defined as the Pearson correlation based on the ranks of the two variables Since it only needs ranks can be used for ordinal outcomes • Ties are usually given average ranks • • It measures the degree of any monotonic relationship between two variables A significance test for the Spearman correlation coefficient can be derived without making distributional assumptions - In that sense the coefficient “is nonparametric” The test assumes that there are no ties 7 .121 age | -0. -------------+-----------------weight | -0. Sig.13 Partial Correlation ctd.3913 0. • Use the pcorr command to calculate the partial correlation between IQ and weight change after controlling for age pcorr iq weight age (obs=100) Partial correlation of iq with Variable | Corr.

dta contains children’s • • • ages in years weighs in pounds heights in inches age 50 60 70 80 12 10 8 6 graph matrix age weight height 80 70 weight 60 50 60 height 50 40 6 8 10 12 40 50 60 8 . • The spearman command provides the observed coefficient and a significance test spearman iq weight Number of obs = Spearman's rho = 100 -0.15 Spearman Correlation ctd.0217 16 Relationships Between Continuous Variables • The (very small) data set growth.2294 Test of Ho: iq and weight are independent Prob > |t| = 0.

the dependent variable y is modelled as y = β 0 + β1 x + ε where • • β0 is the intercept or constant: the value of y when x is 0 β1 is the gradient or slope: the increase in y when x increases by one unit ε is the error: β0+ β1 x is the equation for the predicted values of y. and ε is the difference between the observed and predicted values of y • • The parameters β0 and β1 are referred to as regression coefficients 9 . outcome…) and an independent variable x (explanatory variable. predictor…) To do this it employs the model of a linear relationship between y and x The observed data y is assumed to arise as the sum of a linear regression line (=linear predictor) and an error term 18 Simple Linear Regression Model • In simple linear regression. which lie on a straight line.17 Simple Linear Regression • • • • • We might be interested in how weight changes when children get older A Pearson correlation could be used to measure the strength of the linear relationship between weight and age Simple linear regression estimates the nature of a linear relationship between a dependent variable y (response.

the first variable given after the command is assumed to be the dependent variable • Regression theory also provides confidence intervals for the regression coefficients and tests of zero coefficients Typically only the significance of the slope coefficient is of interest since this amounts to testing the existence of a relationship between the response and explanatory variables • 10 .e. /* */ ytitle(Weight in pounds) xtitle(Age (years)) legend(order(1 "Observed" */ 2 "Regression fit")) 50 6 Weight in pounds 60 70 80 8 Age (years) Observed 10 Regression fit 12 20 Simple Linear Regression ctd. • The regress command provides estimates of the regression coefficients • • The structure is regress depvar indvar I.19 Displaying a Fitted Regression Line • Display the regression line from fitting a regression of weight on age /* twoway (scatter weight age) (lfit weight age) .

81 0. p=0. p=0.” • An F-test of zero fit (null hypothesis: R-squared=0) • 11 .0155 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------weight | Coef.75 Number of obs F( 1. • “Here 59.77 pounds).1857143 -------------+-----------------------------Total | 888. 10) Prob > F R-squared Adj R-squared Root MSE = = = = = = Degrees of freedom used in t-tests below 12 14.” “The model showed significant fit (F(1.9551151 3.392857 Residual | 361.10)=14.857143 10 36. R-squared provides a better estimate of the population value • “We estimate that 55. t P>|t| [95% Conf.55 0. Also provided in the regression output are • A measure of how well the regression model fits the observed data. Err.21 Simple Linear Regression ctd. regress weight age Source | SS df MS -------------+-----------------------------Model | 526.005 11. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------age | 3.0034 0.51 to 5.25 11 80.” 22 Simple Linear Regression ctd.19% of the variance in weight can be explained by age.003 1.64 pounds per extra year of age (95% CI from 1.5519 6.” An adjusted version of this coefficient adj.57143 8.0034).81.55.770986 _cons | 30.642857 . • • R-squared measures the proportion of the variance in y (say weight) that is explained by predicting y from x (say weight from age).003).514728 5.613705 3.76396 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Estimated Regression coefficient Significance tests (t-tests) Limits of confidence intervals “Weight increased significantly with age (t(10)=3.5926 0.55 0. The increase was estimated to be 3.3789 49. Std.392857 1 526.26% of the variance in weight are accounted for by age.

the expected weight at age=10 years The predict command provides predicted values and standard errors The command always refers to the last regression model fitted The format is predict newname. to get predicted expected weights for the ages observed in our sample type predict pred • This generates a new variable called pred in the data file that contains the predicted weights To get standard errors of these predictions type predict predse.g. stdp • • This generates another variable called predse that holds the respective standard errors 12 .g.23 Generating Predictions • • • • • Once a regression model has been fitted in Stata so-called post estimation commands can be used to elicit further information Often one might want to use the fitted regression line to predict the expected value of y for a given x. e. what 24 Command predict • E.

g. Std. • • An approximate 95% CI for the expected value is then given by the estimated value +/.000 62. lincom _cons+age*10 ( 1) 10 age + _cons = 0 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------weight | Coef. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------(1) | 67 2.40272 71.25 Command predict ctd.5 tests and estimates the arithmetic average of the regression coefficients of variables X1 and X2 • We can use this to predict the value of the dependent variable (say weight) for given values (say 10 years) of the independent variable(s) e. lincom X1*0.g. Err.59728 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 13 . t P>|t| [95% Conf.5+X2*0.47 0.063284 32.twice its standard error We can use the generate command to construct lower and upper limits of 95% CIs gen lower=pred-2*predse gen upper=pred+2*predse 26 Prediction Outside the Observed Range • • The lincom command provides tests of significance and estimates of linear combinations of the regression coefficients The regression coefficient of a variable is referred to by the name of the variable • E.

box plot of residuals 2) Residualplot 3) Partial residualplot (see later) 1) 2) • • 28 Distributional Shape of Residuals • The predict command also provides residuals • • option resid for unstandardised residuals option rstandard for residuals standardised to have SD=1 predict stresid. rstandard graph box stresid 2 -2 -1 Standardized residuals 0 1 14 . QQ-plot.27 Regression Assumptions • Regression inferences assume that the observations are independent and that the errors have a normal distribution constant variance 3) zero mean (linear relationship) These assumptions should be assessed There are a number of diagnostics that use the residuals (differences between observed and predicted values) 1) Histogram.

rvfplot 10 twoway (scatter stresid pred) 2 -2 50 -1 Standardized residuals 0 1 -10 -5 Residuals 0 5 50 55 60 65 Fitted values 70 75 55 60 65 Fitted values 70 75 15 .29 Residual plot • • A residual plot is a scatter plot of the residuals against the fitted values (=predicted values for the sample. here predicted weights) It is commonly used to assess the homogeneity assumption • If the variance of the errors is constant the spread of the residuals around the zero reference line is expected not to change with the size of the fitted values • The command rvfplot provides it for the latest regression • • However. the command uses the unstandardized residuals perhaps more appropriate to plot the standardised residuals against the fitted values 30 Residualplot ctd.

. /* twoway (scatter weight age) (lowess weight age) .31 Assessing the Linear Relationship • • In a simple linear regression model the relationship between the dependent variable y and the single independent variable x can be assessed by means of a scatter plot Could include a smooth line that follows the data. … xp The model is simply extended to include several linear effects y = β 0 + β1 x1 + . + β p x p + ε • This affects the interpretation of the regression coefficients • • • E.g. xp remain constant Because of this the regression coefficients are sometimes referred to as partial regression coefficients They measure the relationship between the response and an explanatory variable after “adjusting” for the remaining explanatory variables 16 . β1 is the increase in y when x1 increases by one unit when x2.g.…. e. x2. /* */ ytitle(Weight in pounds) xtitle(Age (years)) legend(order(1 "Observed" */ 2 “Lowess smooth")) 80 50 6 Weight in pounds 60 70 8 Age (years) Observed 10 Lowess smooth 12 32 Multiple Linear Regression • • • We might be interested in weight changes with age that are not simply due to growing at the same time Multiple linear regression estimates the linear relationships between a dependent variable y and several continuous independent variables x1..

test that height and age together have no effect on weight testparm age height ( 1) ( 2) age = 0 height = 0 F( 2.9372256 2.95 0.6598 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------weight | Coef.050126 . t P>|t| Beta -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------age | 2.4332373 height | .022 . Err. regress weight age height Source | SS df MS -------------+-----------------------------Model | 692.77 0.2608051 2. 9) Prob > F R-squared Adj R-squared Root MSE = = = = = = 12 15.g.94483 0.7141548 -------------+-----------------------------Total | 888.0011 17 .19 0.33 Multiple Linear Regression ctd. weight was estimated to increase by 2.75 Number of obs F( 2. • The regress command allows for several continuous explanatory variables.60 0.07 to 4.95 Prob > F = 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ “The effect of age on weight was not statistically significant after adjusting for height. Std.411303 Residual | 195.056 .” 34 Testing the Effect of a Set of Variables The null hypothesis that a set of explanatory variables has no effect on the response can be tested using the post-estimation command testparm • E.5483191 _cons | 6.427393 9 21. Within a group of children of the same height.553048 10.822607 2 346.05 pounds per year (95% CI from -0.7800 0.564 .0011 0.17 pounds).25 11 80.722038 . 9) = 15.7311 4.

72203796.35 Partial Residualplots • • • • Regression assumptions 1) and 2) can be checked as described before However. linearity assumption 3) can no longer be assessed by simply plotting the response against the respective explanatory variable The model assumes that the part of the explanatory variable that does not vary with other explanatory variables has a linear effect on the response Partial residualplot • • plots the residuals from regressing y on all the explanatory variables except the one in question against the residual from a regression of the explanatory variable of interest on the other explanatory variables 36 Partial Residualplot ctd.93722561.77 “The linearity assumptions seemed reasonable for both explanatory variables. avplot age 15 avplot height 10 -10 -15 -5 e( weight | X ) 0 5 -5 0 e( weight | X ) 5 10 -2 -1 0 e( age | X ) 1 2 3 -10 -5 e( height | X ) 0 5 coef = 2. se = .26080506.0501264.19 coef = .” 18 . t = 2. t = 2. se = .

37 Automatic Selection Procedures • • • When there are a large set of potential predictor variables investigators often would like to empirically select a subset of “important” variables Example data on air pollution in 41 US cities USair. • What is an “important variable”? • Approach used: one that has a significant effect on the outcome at some test level • • • The problem is that the significance of any independent variable depends on the other variables included in the model equation As a result several selection procedures have been suggested which vary in the set of variables for which the test is adjusted Therefore different selection procedures can lead to different variable subsets being chosen! 19 .dta • so2 – sulphur dioxide content of air in micrograms per cubic metre o • temperat – average annual temperature in F • manuf – number of manufacturing enterprises employing 20 or more workers • pop – population size (1970 census) in thousands • wind .average wind speed in miles per hour • precip – average annual precipitation in inches • days – average number of days with precipitation per year Which climate and human ecology variables predict air pollution? 38 Automatic Selection Procedures ctd.

Std. Starting with all variables in the model. Err.0003 p = 0.096 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------so2 | Coef.0948015 1.59 0. but exclude variables previously selected if these become non-significant • Backward selection • • Stepwise selection • 40 Forward Variable Selection • • Stata’s sw command can be placed before the regress command to run through a series of regressions The option pe(alpha) specifies that the inclusion level in forward regression is alpha sw regress so2 temperat manuf pop wind precip days.0438071 . Stop if the next variable to be added is not significant according to the chosen significance level.90 Model | 13606.074334 .0913 empty model < 0. the model is updated as follows: include the variable which has the smallest p-value when adding to the previous model. Stop if the next variable to be excluded is significant.0788637 -.9024 40 550.73 0. • Forward selection • Starting with just the constant. pe(0.10) begin with p = 0. Like forward.93 0.965849 11.1048609 pop | -.40 0.947561 Root MSE = 15.558 -16.1000 adding < 0.0145442 -3.091 -.39 Automatic Selection Procedures ctd. t P>|t| [95% Conf. keep updating the model as follows: exclude the variable which has the largest p-value for a significance test.0150661 4.66725 37 227.77691 0.2352 3 4535.5864 Total | 22037.000 .882899 R-squared = 0.82813 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 20 .89643 30.41173 Prob > F = 0. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------manuf | .1000 adding < 0.0000 Residual | 8431.1643594 .019925 days | . 37) = 19.6174 -------------+-----------------------------Adj R-squared = 0.1000 adding manuf pop days Source | SS df MS Number of obs = 41 -------------+-----------------------------F( 3.002 -.3564455 _cons | 6.0277267 .0000 p = 0.0493944 .

35) Prob > F R-squared Adj R-squared Root MSE = = = = = = 41 14.73 0.1000 adding < 0.0195319 . pr(0.096445 pop | -.9024 40 550.41173 Prob > F = 0.12 0.0648871 .27521 3.94 0.8584681 _cons | 100.0090119 wind | -3.69051 161.70 0.121288 .002 -.50517 Residual | 7305.447 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------so2 | Coef.41 Backward Variable Selection • The option pr(alpha) specifies that the exclusion level in backward regression is alpha sw regress so2 temperat manuf pop wind precip days.6212 14.0788637 -.6174 -------------+-----------------------------Adj R-squared = 0. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------temperat | -1.882899 R-squared = 0.019925 days | .947561 Number of obs F( 5. Err. Err.82813 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 21 .40 0.0913 empty model < 0.0000 0.0493944 .63 0. t P>|t| [95% Conf.59 0.1048609 pop | -.965849 11.0000 p = 0.0438071 .096 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------so2 | Coef. 37) = 19.0948015 1.0145442 -3.9024 40 550.0696575 -.012 -.074334 .965535 -.011 -1.6144 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 42 Stepwise Forward Variable Selection • • Specifying both pr(alpha) and pe(alpha) requests a stepwise regression. pe(0.082399 1.0155449 4. Std.77691 0.0277267 .0393347 .90 Model | 13606.93 0.37661 35 208.5020065 precip | .002 38.2162447 1.558 -16.11) forward begin with p = 0.2770402 manuf | .7500 >= 0.0149366 -2.0333293 .091 -.1524 30.10) begin with full model p = 0.1643594 . Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------manuf | .0150661 4.75 0.89643 30.947561 Root MSE = 15.090 -6.1) /* */ pr(0.1000 adding < 0.66725 37 227.4158633 -2.666805 .060 -.0000 Residual | 8431.4194681 .2352 3 4535.6685 0.3564455 _cons | 6.725046 -------------+-----------------------------Total | 22037.1000 adding manuf pop days Source | SS df MS Number of obs = 41 -------------+-----------------------------F( 3.1000 removing days Source | SS df MS -------------+-----------------------------Model | 14732.5258 5 2946.000 .765623 -1. the default is backwards The inclusion level has to be smaller than the exclusion level sw regress so2 temperat manuf pop wind precip days.0003 p = 0. Std.000 .5864 Total | 22037.17 0.31 0. t P>|t| [95% Conf.

For further information and references see http://www. • • 44 Drawbacks … ctd. not driven by existing theory or prior hypotheses. • Any cases with missing values on any of the “candidate variables” entered for selection will not be used during the selection process • run the model again on the selected variables to maximize data use • Backward selection is only possible when the number of possible explanatory variables is not too large compared to the sample size. Multiple testing: A whole list of variables is tested at each stage of the procedure.com/support/faqs/stat/stepwise. Therefore results are more likely to be spurious.e. (After all there might be further explanatory variables out there which have not been measured … ) Important variables may not be selected because inclusion of less important variables has made them redundant.stata.html • • 22 . possibly giving many false positives.43 Drawbacks of Selection Procedures • Analysis is exploratory not confirmatory .i.

381302 .1048609 pop | -.04 0. /* */ pe(0.0085233 temperat | -1.0055524 wind | -3. 37) = 19.7285 47.213726 R-squared = 0.41173 Prob > F = 0.6112 Total | 22037.815019 -1.000 .0438071 .36 0.93 0.558 -16.024 15.5123589 .0972 < 0.0000 Residual | 8431.1000 adding days Source | SS df MS Number of obs = 41 -------------+-----------------------------F( 3.636 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------so2 | Coef.0969225 pop | -.882899 R-squared = 0.249566 days | -.73 0.6211795 -2. t P>|t| [95% Conf.8904 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 46 Forcing Terms into the Model • • The underlying theory might suggest that a set of variables should always be included in the model.965849 11.48 Model | 14754.0788637 -.6174 -------------+-----------------------------Adj R-squared = 0.0000 Residual | 7283.11) forward lockterm1 begin with term 1 model p = 0.1000 adding Source | SS df MS Number of obs = 41 -------------+-----------------------------F( 6.869928 . demographics The option lockterm1 forces the first term given after the response into the model sw regress so2 (manuf pop) temperat wind precip days .049 -2.1000 adding p = 0.59 0.167 -.3564455 _cons | 6.267941 .750 -.11) forward manuf pop temperat wind precip days begin with empty model p = 0.3181 2.0151327 -2.10596 Prob > F = 0.1) pr(0.0150661 4.1620139 -0.0277267 .0493944 .41 0.26667 34 214.000 .0000 < 0. e.074334 .0392767 . Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------manuf | .77691 0.32 0.40 0.0948015 1. Err.0329139 .12 0.2772016 _cons | 111.45 Blocking • • • Underlying theory might suggest that a set of variables should be kept together at all times Blocks of explanatory variable are indicated by brackets sw regress so2 (temperat wind precip days) (manuf pop).6695 -------------+-----------------------------Adj R-squared = 0.56652 207.75 0.091 -.0145442 -3.66725 37 227.019925 days | .3627551 1.5071974 precip | .002 -.9024 40 550. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------manuf | . Std. Std.82813 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 23 . 34) = 11.6358 6 2459.0520502 .947561 Root MSE = 15.9024 40 550.0157483 4.89643 30.089 -6.53033 -. Err.60 0.5864 Total | 22037.1) pr(0.947561 Root MSE = 14.2248481 1.014 -. t P>|t| [95% Conf.2352 3 4535.1643594 . /* */ pe(0.0649182 .181366 1.g.0913 < 0.90 Model | 13606.096 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------so2 | Coef.0700302 -.

pearson correlation

pearson correlation

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