Commodity Weekly Update

21

st

Oct 2013

Highlights Gold futures fell from a one-week high as a rally in global equities curbed demand for the precious metal as an alternative investment. The MSCI All-Country World Index of stocks extended a rally to a five-year high after Chinas economic growth accelerated. Gold jumped 3.9 percent in the previous two days amid speculation that the Federal Reserve will hold off on scaling back monetary stimulus. Gold futures for December delivery fell 0.6 percent to settle at $1,314.60 an ounce on the Comex in New York. Earlier, the price reached $1,328.90, the highest for a most-active contract since Oct. 8. Silver futures for December delivery fell 0.2 percent to $21.913 an ounce. The price has tumbled 28 percent this year. West Texas Intermediate crude advanced after economic growth accelerated in China, the worlds largest oil-importing country, and on speculation the U.S. will maintain economic stimulus. WTI crude for November delivery rose 14 cents to settle at $100.81 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract fell 1.6 percent to $100.67 yesterday, the lowest close since July 2. Prices slipped 1.2 percent this week. Copper futures rose after stronger economic growth bolstered the outlook for demand in China, the worlds largest consumer of the metal. Copper futures for December delivery advanced 0.1 percent to close at $3.299 a pound on the Comex. Weekly Movement Global Futures Crude Oil Natural Gas Heating Oil Gasoline RBOB Gold Silver Copper MCX Futures Crude Oil Natural Gas Copper Nickel Lead Zinc Aluminum Gold Silver NCDEX Futures Chana Soyabean Soyaoil Jeera Sugarm Coriander Chilli Global Markets Shanghai Nikkei HangSeng FTSE CAC DAX DJIA NASDAQ Price 100.81 3.76 303.54 267.32 1314.60 21.91 329.90 Price 6192 231.10 448.80 869.30 132.20 116.55 110.80 29480 48195 Price 3083 3526 703.90 12637.5 2893 6736 6118 Change 0.14 0.01 4.54 2.53 -8.40 -0.03 0.20 Change -15.00 0.10 3.05 18.4 4.30 0.95 -2.50 1115 1304 Change -95.00 -99.50 14.00 -402.50 11.00 -326 46.00 Change (%) 0.14 0.19 1.52 0.96 -0.63 -0.15 0.06 Change (%) -0.24 0.04 0.68 2.16 3.36 0.82 -2.21 3.93 2.78 Change(%) -2.99 -2.75 2.03 -3.09 0.38 -4.62 0.76 Change (%) -1.54 1.09 0.52 2.09 1.57 1.61 1.07 3.23 Weekly Chart (MCX): Silver

Level Change Asian 2193.78 -34.37 14561.54 156.8 23340.10 121.78 European 6,622.58 4,286.03 135.39 66.05

Weekly Technical View: Silver Silver future prices maintained positive trend during the week and up by almost 3% but not able to break the important resistance of 49100 level. Below this level metal remain bearish and again may test new monthly low level. 14 Day RSI prefers the firmness and remained in neutral region along with stochastic are favouring the downward and moved in the neutral region. MACD is supporting the bear as medium term and moving in the negative territory. Concisely, prices are likely to trade down in the coming trading week. Short Term Trend- Bearish Support & Resistance: S1 47300 S2 46250 PCP 48195 R1 49100 R2 50000

8,865.10 140.27 US 15,399.65 3,914.28 162.54 122.47

Recommendation: Based on the charts above, we recommend selling in range of 48800-49300 levels for the target of 47300 Stop loss above 50000 levels.
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India - National Statistical Data

Particular Government Bond 10Y Currency Stock Market Interbank Rate GDP Growth Rate GDP GDP per capita GDP per capita PPP GDP Annual Growth Rate Inflation Rate Producer Prices Consumer Price Index (CPI) Export Prices GDP Deflator Import Prices Money Supply M2 Money Supply M3

Actual 8.64 61.39 19902.07 12.02 1.30 1841.70 1106.80

Previous 8.76 62.50 19893.85 11.26 0.80 1872.90 1085.73

Unit Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent Billion USD USD

Weekly Chart (MCX): Copper

3340.60

3277.01

USD Weekly Technical View: Copper On last week Copper closed at flat mode and trade near two month low level and weekly chart pattern still looking weak. We recommend sell Copper for medium term with stop loss of 463. The immediate support appears around 442 levels breaching which the gas can reach 435 levels. Metal has strong resistance at 456 levels. Technical indicators on daily chart has generated fresh sell signal and indicate continues of downward movement for next week. Short Term Trend- Bearish Support & Resistance: S1 S2 442 435

4.40 6.10 177.50

4.80 5.79 175.40

Percent Percent Index Points

237 223 159.30 243 19172.14 88356.72

235 196 146.50 215 19349.17 87696.97

Index Points Index Points Index Points Index Points INR BIL INR BIL

PCP 448.80

R1 456

R2 463

Recommendation: Based on the charts above, we recommend sell around 454 levels for the target of 442 and put Stop loss above 463 on closing basis levels.

Economic Round-Up Indias central bank is looking at ending an emergency facility under which it has directly so ld dollars to state refiners since late August, according to three people with knowledge of the matter. The rupee fell. The Reserve Bank of India is in talks with the companies to gauge the potential impact of withdrawing the measure on the exchange rate, two of the people said, asking not to be named as the discussions are private. The facility stays operational and any tapering of the window, as and when it occurs, will be done in a calibrated manner, the RBI said in a statement on its website. Under the contingency measure, the RBI provided the U.S. currency to Indian Oil Corp., Bharat Petroleum Corp. and Hindustan Petroleum Corp., according to the central bank.RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan, who raised the benchmark rate last month for the first time since 2011 to counter inflation, has said the bank will gradually scale back the dollar supplies as the rupee stabilizes. The Federal Reserve will delay the first reduction in its bond purchases until March after the government shutdown slowed fourth-quarter growth and interrupted the flow of data, economists said. Policy makers will pare the monthly pace of asset buying to $70 billion from $85 billion at their March 18-19 meeting, according to the median of 40 responses in a Bloomberg News survey of economists. The 16-day budget impasse in Washington reduced growth by 0.3 percentage point this quarter. The U.S. central bank will reduce monthly purchases to a $25 billion pace by July and end the program at the October 2014 meeting, according to the survey conducted this week. Chairman Ben S. Bernankes second term ends Jan. 31, and President Barack Obama has nominated Vice Chairman Janet Yellen to succeed him. The shutdown delayed the publication of key economic reports from the Department of Labor and Department of Commerce. It also prevented data collectors at the agency from gathering some of the data at the usual time period. The Labor Department said two days ago the September jobs report will be released Oct. 22, while Octobers will be pushed back to Nov. 8 from Nov. 1. RR, All rights reserved Page 2 of 3

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